I thought now might be a good time for a periodical re-posting of Morris Dancer's Wonderful List of Labour Possibilities, Arranged and Compared to Historical Battlefield Performances of the Roman Empire: -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury] -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion] -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
Moon of Endor around the planet of Endor in the system of Endor. Right
To be fair, if an alien asked what the moon's name was, the best we could say - recognising that the definite article is meaningless in the context of a galaxy of billions of stars, planets and moons - is that it's 'Earth's moon'.
I still don't understand why - with the Tories riding high in the polls and the Lib Dems just about where they've been for the last 6 years - anyone would have been expecting significant Lib Dem gains in these elections (or in the general election). In 2013 the Tories had a national poll rating of around 30%, and the Lib Dems one of around 10%. Now?
As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.
Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
Happened to me once opening with my best friend. I was so annoyed I paced round the boundarry giving him evils and he made a good fifty afterwards telling me he was scared to get out. Oh the simple cricket days before gender dysphoria, heart condition and malaise. I miss cricket.
Gender dysphoria?
Yeah, a genuine condition that affects far fewer people than claim it.
Far more people feel comfortable to seek help with it in our more tolerant society, as evidenced by the chronic waiting lists for appointments at the various regional gender dysphoria centres. Over 18 months in some cases from first referral to appointment.
There are bigger factors at play here. Differential turnout is still hurting Labour, which is one reason I've been asking for less policy and more emotion in Labour's approach. We're still believing that voters must be rational actors. "Our policies are POPULAR" isn't anywhere near enough when it comes to moving people to vote. Labour doesn't do a good enough job of appending emotion to policy. Notwithstanding the obvious problems with the leader. Secondly, we are seeing a "sorting" of the Labour vote. It's retreating into very urban areas and giving up ground to the Conservatives as it retreats. There are underlying demographic reasons to explain this retreat, and Labour has thus far failed to hold the ground it has given up because it doesn't have anything to say to those voters in suburban areas
Mr. Observer, if Corbyn remains in place, then the Lib Dems and UKIP being weak means there's a much better chance of a new party split from Labour succeeding.
Another very big "if", but were Labour to split this year and the new party become the official opposition, it would have a five year period to build funding and an organisation, while the rump Labour party would move even further left and be dependent on activists who do not like to get out from behind their computers.
But we are getting too far ahead of ourselves. I would still expect Corbyn to lose the leadership challenge he is almost certain to face after the GE. Should that be the case, it will be curtains for the far left inside Labour.
As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.
Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
+1.
A hat trick is bloody troublesome. Especially if you're handling a scoreboard as well.
Runs off wides also caused me so much grief. Almost as much as being stumped off a wide.
Just imagine a hat-trick completed accross two overs and one of them was stumped off a wide.
My favourite was the batting pair who ran three runs, except one of them ran the first two short and the other was run out attempting the third. I had both umpires signalling "one short" after the raised finger...
I still don't understand why - with the Tories riding high in the polls and the Lib Dems just about where they've been for the last 6 years - anyone would have been expecting significant Lib Dem gains in these elections (or in the general election). In 2013 the Tories had a national poll rating of around 30%, and the Lib Dems one of around 10%. Now?
Wishful thinking of the Remainers and certain people around.....
Hmm .... I recall that a couple of eminent unnamed PBers rubbished Stephen Fisher's highly caveated local election predictions when I was the first to highlight these on Tuesday.
Sadly, some here are addicted to PCBEs, despite their evident lack of predictive ability.
Mr. Herdson, that's a war rather than a shorter incident (I know you might argue the Fourth Crusade was too, but that would be to define a particularly bad, potentially terminal, result).
I wouldn't rank the Third Punic War highly, actually. It was a superpower versus a city-state, and the Romans took three or four years to win. It was easily their least impressive war victory over the Carthaginians.
It's also worth noting the original list had Cannae, at -70 seats, as the worst result. Then the terrible polls for Labour came out and others suggested a few more.
Now it's being suggested, badger-style, that the goalposts need to be moved again, once more in a bad way for Labour.
Yes, I accept that. But then there comes a stage where a single battle - or the consequences of a lost battle - are so utterly terminal that the battle defines the war.
In terms of martial prowess, I agree that the Romans didn't do a particularly stellar job but that wasn't my point. The point was that the result wasn't just 'potentially terminal', in your phrase, but literally absolutely and utterly terminal. As a war of annihilation, I don't think it has an equal.
@rafaelbehr: More candid about results than John McDonnell. When Neil Hamilton is beating you on honesty it's time to take a good hard look at yourself.
@bbcnickrobinson: "This election is about the collapse of your party, isn't it?" Neil Hamilton: "Yes."
UKIP are now a party selling Christmas tree baubles in January.
Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.
Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
Happy birthday to your son.
You should have told me about your daughter studying classical civilisation, I would have loved to share my knowledge on it with her.
Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.
Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather
I still don't understand why - with the Tories riding high in the polls and the Lib Dems just about where they've been for the last 6 years - anyone would have been expecting significant Lib Dem gains in these elections (or in the general election). In 2013 the Tories had a national poll rating of around 30%, and the Lib Dems one of around 10%. Now?
Wishful thinking of the Remainers and certain people around.....
The other thing I can't understand is why - when wishful thinking about incumbency led the Lib Dems so badly astray in 2015 - they are indulging in another huge bout of it over Brexit. There's no sign at all in the opinion polls that they're gaining support.
As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.
Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
+1.
A hat trick is bloody troublesome. Especially if you're handling a scoreboard as well.
Runs off wides also caused me so much grief. Almost as much as being stumped off a wide.
Just imagine a hat-trick completed accross two overs and one of them was stumped off a wide.
My favourite was the batting pair who ran three runs, except one of them ran the first two short and the other was run out attempting the third. I had both umpires signalling "one short" after the raised finger...
Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.
Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather
Mr. Woolie/Mr. Quidder, over (self-)diagnosis of psychological conditions is very common.
Show an average man a list of psychopathology symptoms, without telling him what condition that indicate, and he'll reckon he has most of them.
Likewise, women significantly over self-diagnose PMS. Studies have shown that, of those who claim to suffer it, more than 90% don't according to their own diary reports on their wellbeing [taught this by a feminist, female lecturer in a class that was 95% female, so I'm quite confident it's legitimate].
And that's without getting into other problems, like depression being the most common psych disorder, but also being a symptom of PMS, (or insomnia being a symptom of depression and *also* PMS).
OCD likewise is something people sometimes claim to have a 'touch' of.
There's a serious overdoing of pathologising quirky or unusual/eccentric behaviour, and self-diagnosis over-egging the cake on top of that.
But that's a problem inherent with the nature of the conditions. You can't x-ray someone's head and see their psychopathology bone is broken and they might become a serial killer.
In the near future we might well see some new psych problems arise by over-reliance on technology.
There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.
UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.
Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.
A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
As I predicted recently, it will somewhat inevitably be called the Progressive (aargh!) Democratic Party. When combined with say 20 or more LibDems, if it can it muster 100 or more MPs in the HoC, it would then stand every chance of becoming H.M.'s Official Opposition.
Yes and by election gains could then take it further, it would be a combination of En Marche, the US Democrats, German SPD and Canadian Liberals but only if Corbynism cannot be budged post defeat
Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.
Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather
Sorry to go all SeanT, but I'm dating a University of Manchester student, she loves that aspect and the variety.
You've got cheesy 80s to hard rock, to Lindy clubs all close together.
As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.
Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
+1.
A hat trick is bloody troublesome. Especially if you're handling a scoreboard as well.
Runs off wides also caused me so much grief. Almost as much as being stumped off a wide.
Just imagine a hat-trick completed accross two overs and one of them was stumped off a wide.
Runs off wides is easy: it's like the Bank of Scotland logo.
The subtle difference in the scorebook between runs off no balls when the batsman hit it and runs off no balls when he didn't. Important to get that one right.
I still don't understand why - with the Tories riding high in the polls and the Lib Dems just about where they've been for the last 6 years - anyone would have been expecting significant Lib Dem gains in these elections (or in the general election). In 2013 the Tories had a national poll rating of around 30%, and the Lib Dems one of around 10%. Now?
Wishful thinking of the Remainers and certain people around.....
The other thing I can't understand is why - when wishful thinking about incumbency led the Lib Dems so badly astray in 2015 - they are indulging in another huge bout of it over Brexit. There's no sign at all in the opinion polls that they're gaining support.
Ot failing Brexit, some of them seem to think the CPS is going to ride to their rescue at the last minute.
Mr. Herdson, the devastation of Carthage is actually a shade overdone. It was quite soon after re-founded as a Roman city, and later became capital of an Exarchate, furnishing the Eastern Empire with Heraclius, the emperor who rescued Byzantium from Flavius Phocas and gave Chosroes, the Persian ruler, a hiding.
Mr. Woolie/Mr. Quidder, over (self-)diagnosis of psychological conditions is very common.
Show an average man a list of psychopathology symptoms, without telling him what condition that indicate, and he'll reckon he has most of them.
Likewise, women significantly over self-diagnose PMS. Studies have shown that, of those who claim to suffer it, more than 90% don't according to their own diary reports on their wellbeing [taught this by a feminist, female lecturer in a class that was 95% female, so I'm quite confident it's legitimate].
And that's without getting into other problems, like depression being the most common psych disorder, but also being a symptom of PMS, (or insomnia being a symptom of depression and *also* PMS).
OCD likewise is something people sometimes claim to have a 'touch' of.
There's a serious overdoing of pathologising quirky or unusual/eccentric behaviour, and self-diagnosis over-egging the cake on top of that.
But that's a problem inherent with the nature of the conditions. You can't x-ray someone's head and see their psychopathology bone is broken and they might become a serial killer.
In the near future we might well see some new psych problems arise by over-reliance on technology.
Indeed. That's why treatment and help is provided on the basis of what has been diagnosed by professionals. 'I'm a bit OCD' is like 'I have a twinge in my back sometimes, I have lower back pain', whereas 'I was diagnosed with severe OCD and am on x, y and z and having CBT' is rather different. Same with gender dysphoria and any number of conditions.
Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.
Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather
Was that intended to be helpful?
Probably about as helpful as TSE sharing his knowledge of 'classical civilization'!
Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.
Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
Happy birthday to your son.
You should have told me about your daughter studying classical civilisation, I would have loved to share my knowledge on it with her.
There is still time. She is planning to do an MA in it, depending on how her results go and how her dissertation is viewed. She is also interested in politics.
And she comes round and cooks for me, taking the view that I am completely unable to look after myself properly.....
EURO boss Jean-Claude Juncker faced fresh questions over his fitness for office last night as claims emerged he was drunk during a major UN peace summit.
Diplomatic sources have alleged that the EU Commission president was “very visibly pissed” during key talks in Geneva recently over Cyprus.
Mr. Observer, if Corbyn remains in place, then the Lib Dems and UKIP being weak means there's a much better chance of a new party split from Labour succeeding.
Another very big "if", but were Labour to split this year and the new party become the official opposition, it would have a five year period to build funding and an organisation, while the rump Labour party would move even further left and be dependent on activists who do not like to get out from behind their computers.
But we are getting too far ahead of ourselves. I would still expect Corbyn to lose the leadership challenge he is almost certain to face after the GE. Should that be the case, it will be curtains for the far left inside Labour.
Agreed. Corbyn (if he doesn't stand down) will be challenged, and this time he will lose. A better leader will emerge, Cooper, Lewis, Starmer, Thornberry
A slow, painful recovery will begin. Labour to win in 2027.
I think you are PROBABLY right. But one can just about see an argument from Corbyn that, " the trouble is we were too kind, we didn't cleanse the party of Blairites, and appeared split." I think Labour members are still just sane enough not to buy that. But I'm not certain.
The biggest challenge the Tories will have is that there are still four weeks to go, and today's headlines are clearly signalling already that Labour cannot win. At the very least, their manifesto will come under intense scrutiny.
Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.
Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather
He moans about the cold but yes he does like the place. Prefers it to London, he tells me.
There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.
UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.
Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.
A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
Exactly. Sean is missing the point that it's what happens to Labour after the oncoming massive defeat that will shape the future. The civil war is breaking out on Labourlist already. Does anyone really think that Yvette Cooper will simply pick up the pieces and under a united party she will turn into the next Tony Blair by 2025?
The forthcoming battle inside Labour is going to be savage because the side that loses will be finished inside the party for a very, very long time. If the moderates do win they will lock down all processes and procedures to ensure that the far left never gets close to the leadership again. So, if Cooper did emerge I would expect that Labour would be pretty much united and ready to go at the next GE. If the far left wins, then Labour will split and the Tories will have a clear run until the 2030s.
If Labour go down to 150 seats or so, or even fewer, the Tories might have a clear run til the 2030s anyway.
I had an interesting drink with a left leaning poet friend last night. We decided that Corbyn is a kind of oracular, shamanic figure for some young voters. He's a cultic leader with a religious halo, who fulfils the spiritual hunger in godless youngsters. This is why he can say or do anything and all his flaws are explained away. He's Jim Jones. He's Brigham Young. He's guiding Labour to Salt Lake City.
We'll see how perceptions survive a double dose of cold hard reality. I don't think we'll see huge numbers of votes change sides in the next leadership election. Instead, a lot of Corbyn supporters will just slip quietly away and move on to the next thing. Corbyn will also lose the backing of Unison, which is now the biggest trade union and the GMB will be much more vocal about its dislike of him. That will leave Champagne Len and Unite - but Len's authority has been severely weakened following the recent elections, not only because his vote collapsed, but also because the hard left's grip of the national executive was severely cut.
Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.
Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather
Was that intended to be helpful?
Probably about as helpful as TSE sharing his knowledge of 'classical civilization'!
I've learnt a lot about historical battles on this website. (Or at least their names and results).
Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
Mr. Woolie/Mr. Quidder, over (self-)diagnosis of psychological conditions is very common.
Show an average man a list of psychopathology symptoms, without telling him what condition that indicate, and he'll reckon he has most of them.
Likewise, women significantly over self-diagnose PMS. Studies have shown that, of those who claim to suffer it, more than 90% don't according to their own diary reports on their wellbeing [taught this by a feminist, female lecturer in a class that was 95% female, so I'm quite confident it's legitimate].
And that's without getting into other problems, like depression being the most common psych disorder, but also being a symptom of PMS, (or insomnia being a symptom of depression and *also* PMS).
OCD likewise is something people sometimes claim to have a 'touch' of.
There's a serious overdoing of pathologising quirky or unusual/eccentric behaviour, and self-diagnosis over-egging the cake on top of that.
But that's a problem inherent with the nature of the conditions. You can't x-ray someone's head and see their psychopathology bone is broken and they might become a serial killer.
In the near future we might well see some new psych problems arise by over-reliance on technology.
OCD is a really horrible condition. I know because someone very close to me has it. I hate it when people say they are a "bit OCD" when they mean they like things to be tidy. If you've seen what it does to people close up you would never claim to have it. It can - if the right sort of therapy is not obtained - destroy lives, not just of those who suffer from it but those around them.
Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
The noise from local issues tends to dampen any swings.
Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
Labour's doing just fine. Absolutely nothing to worry about.
Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
I read one psephologist comment (apologies cannot re-find it) that the locals would represent a 'ceiling for Labour and floor for the Tories' - we'll know soon enough!
Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
There certainly used to be an established pattern where some people would vote for their council to spend more and the government to tax less, going back to the days of two-party politics. I haven't analysed more recent data to see if this still applies, but my guess is that Labour will poll worse in a GE than in the locals. Corbyn this time will make this more likely, as local voters at least didn't have to worry about letting Corbyn run their local council.
Mr. Woolie/Mr. Quidder, over (self-)diagnosis of psychological conditions is very common.
Show an average man a list of psychopathology symptoms, without telling him what condition that indicate, and he'll reckon he has most of them.
Likewise, women significantly over self-diagnose PMS. Studies have shown that, of those who claim to suffer it, more than 90% don't according to their own diary reports on their wellbeing [taught this by a feminist, female lecturer in a class that was 95% female, so I'm quite confident it's legitimate].
And that's without getting into other problems, like depression being the most common psych disorder, but also being a symptom of PMS, (or insomnia being a symptom of depression and *also* PMS).
OCD likewise is something people sometimes claim to have a 'touch' of.
There's a serious overdoing of pathologising quirky or unusual/eccentric behaviour, and self-diagnosis over-egging the cake on top of that.
But that's a problem inherent with the nature of the conditions. You can't x-ray someone's head and see their psychopathology bone is broken and they might become a serial killer.
In the near future we might well see some new psych problems arise by over-reliance on technology.
OCD is a really horrible condition. I know because someone very close to me has it. I hate it when people say they are a "bit OCD" when they mean they like things to be tidy. If you've seen what it does to people close up you would never claim to have it. It can - if the right sort of therapy is not obtained - destroy lives, not just of those who suffer from it but those around them.
Indeed. Destructive rituals and intrusive thought can be a very severe blight on quality of life. Cheapening that struggle with flippant claims to be a sufferer is a terrible thing. You can't be 'a bit ocd', if you have OCD you know about it.
CON 287 +172 LAB 75 -319 LD 82 +11 SNP 553 +129 GRN 12 -2
Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
6%
Jeezo
It isn't credible.
I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.
Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.
UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.
Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.
A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
Exactly. Sean is missing the point that it's what happens to Labour after the oncoming massive defeat that will shape the future. The civil war is breaking out on Labourlist already. Does anyone really think that Yvette Cooper will simply pick up the pieces and under a united party she will turn into the next Tony Blair by 2025?
The forthcoming battle inside Labour is going to be savage because the side that loses will be finished inside the party for a very, very long time. If the moderates do win they will lock down all processes and procedures to ensure that the far left never gets close to the leadership again. So, if Cooper did emerge I would expect that Labour would be pretty much united and ready to go at the next GE. If the far left wins, then Labour will split and the Tories will have a clear run until the 2030s.
If Labour go down to 150 seats or so, or even fewer, the Tories might have a clear run til the 2030s anyway.
I had an interesting drink with a left leaning poet friend last night. We decided that Corbyn is a kind of oracular, shamanic figure for some young voters. He's a cultic leader with a religious halo, who fulfils the spiritual hunger in godless youngsters. This is why he can say or do anything and all his flaws are explained away. He's Jim Jones. He's Brigham Young. He's guiding Labour to Salt Lake City.
.......Or getting them castrated for their trip on hale bopp
Regarding the earlier debate point on whether the UKIP collapse will cause problems long terms for the Tories and re-toxify their brand. The Tories cannot detoxify their brand to the Public sector & Charity sector Metropolitan areas where Labour's Diversity Outreach co-ordinator vote lives. They will continue to say "But why don't the people understand, the poor fools, Socialism is the answer". Ditto the "We should stay in the EU because Waitrose will run out of Organic Tapenade". But that demographic is split with the Liberal Democrats. Incidentally I believe Labour will not de-toxify themselves to Private sector workers post Corbyn regardless of whether the UK ends up as North Korea or not post Brexit.
2ndly nor do I believe will it affect their BME 1st/2nd Generation vote. But even there seeing Kemi Badenoch stand up and represent (and she almost certainly will) the distinctly un "Street" Saffron Waldon with its 98% white vote. I believe that many BME voters will look at that and say to themselves "well both sides want my vote, both sides represent me, it's just that one side will choose Dianne Abbot to represent me, the other side Major James Cleverly MP TD". The UK at present isn't the UK of 1980's skinheads despite some problems remaining and this will affect the BME ABC1 and possibly C2 vote.
The 3rd bit of Labour's core vote - Emily Thornberry's Van vote North of Watford Gap is gone, forget about it (South of it was always C1 people who welled up when they think of Mrs Thatcher PBUH). They are no longer looking at Eton & Oxbridge graduates whose wives either "Lunch" or Design Leather Clad notepads, they are looking at a cabinet with regional accents. There are a greater number of Upper Class remaining in the Conservatives, but the kind of Upper Classes who were Platoon commanders to their great grandfather at Passchendale. The British working class like Multi Generational Posh people who consider themselves their servants a la Jacob Rees Mogg, not Ghastly Nouveau Riche Chattering classes - Viz whatever Soap Opera / TV presenter / Human Rights Barrister / Red Prince (Oooh Guacamole) Labour chuck into their Electoral Seat. Nor do they want somebody who believes they are elected to act as their University Lecturer - see pretty much all the Liberal Democrats.
The 4th is also gone. UKIP will continue to act as a Lodestone to tinfoil hat wearers & E Grades. Decide for yourself where those who previously made the Tories as huggable as an Ebola patient to group 2 and 3 will go.
I'm going to West Ham v Spurs tonight, astonished to see Spurs are 2/5. OK they're on fire and West Ham are rubbish but this is their biggest game of the season, 2/5 is just wrong.
Won't be laying it myself but neutrals might consider it.
At the end of the day, nothing lasts forever. I believe we will get a Whig party back to counter the Tories made of mainstream Labour & Liberal Democrat MP's, with the rump Judean Peoples Popular Front keeping the assets of all those Labour Working mens clubs that will increasingly look like Pripyat save the odd Momentum friends of Palestine meeting and an invite to the South Armagh active service unit to celebrate their struggle. But by the time it has happened the dust will have settled, the UK will have signed its Free Trade agreements with Korea, Australia et all. And even if it survives the EU will look like its founders envisaged - a United States of Europe proudly waving its Star Spangled Sphincter and Bizantine Bureaucracy in the face of a World that has moved on from a Feather bedded populace.
Mr. Woolie/Mr. Quidder, over (self-)diagnosis of psychological conditions is very common.
Show an average man a list of psychopathology symptoms, without telling him what condition that indicate, and he'll reckon he has most of them.
Likewise, women significantly over self-diagnose PMS. Studies have shown that, of those who claim to suffer it, more than 90% don't according to their own diary reports on their wellbeing [taught this by a feminist, female lecturer in a class that was 95% female, so I'm quite confident it's legitimate].
And that's without getting into other problems, like depression being the most common psych disorder, but also being a symptom of PMS, (or insomnia being a symptom of depression and *also* PMS).
OCD likewise is something people sometimes claim to have a 'touch' of.
There's a serious overdoing of pathologising quirky or unusual/eccentric behaviour, and self-diagnosis over-egging the cake on top of that.
But that's a problem inherent with the nature of the conditions. You can't x-ray someone's head and see their psychopathology bone is broken and they might become a serial killer.
In the near future we might well see some new psych problems arise by over-reliance on technology.
OCD is a really horrible condition. I know because someone very close to me has it. I hate it when people say they are a "bit OCD" when they mean they like things to be tidy. If you've seen what it does to people close up you would never claim to have it. It can - if the right sort of therapy is not obtained - destroy lives, not just of those who suffer from it but those around them.
Indeed - it's a manifestation of severe chronic anxiety, not persnickettiness. It is, however, one of the mental conditions where therapy has a decent chance of success.
There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.
UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.
Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.
A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
Exactly. Sean is missing the point that it's what happens to Labour after the oncoming massive defeat that will shape the future. The civil war is breaking out on Labourlist already. Does anyone really think that Yvette Cooper will simply pick up the pieces and under a united party she will turn into the next Tony Blair by 2025?
The forthcoming battle inside Labour is going to be savage because the side that loses will be finished inside the party for a very, very long time. If the moderates do win they will lock down all processes and procedures to ensure that the far left never gets close to the leadership again. So, if Cooper did emerge I would expect that Labour would be pretty much united and ready to go at the next GE. If the far left wins, then Labour will split and the Tories will have a clear run until the 2030s.
If Labour go down to 150 seats or so, or even fewer, the Tories might have a clear run til the 2030s anyway.
I had an interesting drink with a left leaning poet friend last night. We decided that Corbyn is a kind of oracular, shamanic figure for some young voters. He's a cultic leader with a religious halo, who fulfils the spiritual hunger in godless youngsters. This is why he can say or do anything and all his flaws are explained away. He's Jim Jones. He's Brigham Young. He's guiding Labour to Salt Lake City.
Fantastic Brigham Young reference. LOL.
Fred Phelps was a modern-day Brigham Young. Looked a bit like Corbyn too.
Mcmao excuses in regards to the flags about as believable as somebody caught in a knocking shop raid claiming they only came for a massage and didn't know it included a happy ending.
CON 287 +172 LAB 75 -319 LD 82 +11 SNP 553 +129 GRN 12 -2
Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
6%
Jeezo
It isn't credible.
I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.
Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.
I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
Wonder how many councils SCON will have outright control of out of 32?
Comments
Theresa May looks - on early results - to be succeeding where Cameron failed - using Brexit to bring back votes en masses from Ukip to Con
May has de-toffified the Party.
If you hear the Scottish Tory KLAXON sound in the next few hours, do not be alarmed.
This is to be expected
There are bigger factors at play here. Differential turnout is still hurting Labour, which is one reason I've been asking for less policy and more emotion in Labour's approach. We're still believing that voters must be rational actors. "Our policies are POPULAR" isn't anywhere near enough when it comes to moving people to vote. Labour doesn't do a good enough job of appending emotion to policy. Notwithstanding the obvious problems with the leader. Secondly, we are seeing a "sorting" of the Labour vote. It's retreating into very urban areas and giving up ground to the Conservatives as it retreats. There are underlying demographic reasons to explain this retreat, and Labour has thus far failed to hold the ground it has given up because it doesn't have anything to say to those voters in suburban areas
But we are getting too far ahead of ourselves. I would still expect Corbyn to lose the leadership challenge he is almost certain to face after the GE. Should that be the case, it will be curtains for the far left inside Labour.
In terms of martial prowess, I agree that the Romans didn't do a particularly stellar job but that wasn't my point. The point was that the result wasn't just 'potentially terminal', in your phrase, but literally absolutely and utterly terminal. As a war of annihilation, I don't think it has an equal.
Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather
Labour sources say they don't need to be winning seats in locals to be competitive in #GE2017
Show an average man a list of psychopathology symptoms, without telling him what condition that indicate, and he'll reckon he has most of them.
Likewise, women significantly over self-diagnose PMS. Studies have shown that, of those who claim to suffer it, more than 90% don't according to their own diary reports on their wellbeing [taught this by a feminist, female lecturer in a class that was 95% female, so I'm quite confident it's legitimate].
And that's without getting into other problems, like depression being the most common psych disorder, but also being a symptom of PMS, (or insomnia being a symptom of depression and *also* PMS).
OCD likewise is something people sometimes claim to have a 'touch' of.
There's a serious overdoing of pathologising quirky or unusual/eccentric behaviour, and self-diagnosis over-egging the cake on top of that.
But that's a problem inherent with the nature of the conditions. You can't x-ray someone's head and see their psychopathology bone is broken and they might become a serial killer.
In the near future we might well see some new psych problems arise by over-reliance on technology.
You've got cheesy 80s to hard rock, to Lindy clubs all close together.
Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.
Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War
That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...
Mr. Herdson, the devastation of Carthage is actually a shade overdone. It was quite soon after re-founded as a Roman city, and later became capital of an Exarchate, furnishing the Eastern Empire with Heraclius, the emperor who rescued Byzantium from Flavius Phocas and gave Chosroes, the Persian ruler, a hiding.
Stephen Bush has just used the pun I was planning to use on general election night.
'Tomorrow belongs to May'
Some of it is bad. Some very bad. Some beyond the pale terrible.
And she comes round and cooks for me, taking the view that I am completely unable to look after myself properly.....
(So that cunning plan worked well .....
EURO boss Jean-Claude Juncker faced fresh questions over his fitness for office last night as claims emerged he was drunk during a major UN peace summit.
Diplomatic sources have alleged that the EU Commission president was “very visibly pissed” during key talks in Geneva recently over Cyprus.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3485017/eu-chief-jean-claude-juncker-very-visibly-drunk-at-major-un-summit-in-geneva/?CMP=Spklr-_-Editorial-_-TheSun-_-News-_-TwImageandlink-_-Statement-_-TWITTER
Con: 37
SNP: 40
Lab: 15
Pity - for Labour. Corbyn is still there. It can only get worse
Search Party requested to find UKIP. - have done the job and we now don't want them.
Sedatives on order for the LibDems - must be genuinely shocked to be in negative numbers
Sedatives on order for Tory - needed to keep them calm and sane
Holiday tour for Greens - a cycle holiday viewing windfarms across the nation
It looks higher in the latter even in places where Labour hangs on.
https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/ba116fb0-e3fe-44d2-86bf-fbbe07caf537
On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?
The 2013 election:
LAB 278
UKIP 287
LIBDEM 551
CONS 79
https://twitter.com/leonnoble82/status/859108441251618817
1.1-0-69-0
http://www.espncricinfo.com/bangladesh/content/story/1095981.html
A tragic story, which manages not to mention the poor scorer.
“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”
Eeeew! Proles! Who gave them the vote?
2ndly nor do I believe will it affect their BME 1st/2nd Generation vote. But even there seeing Kemi Badenoch stand up and represent (and she almost certainly will) the distinctly un "Street" Saffron Waldon with its 98% white vote. I believe that many BME voters will look at that and say to themselves "well both sides want my vote, both sides represent me, it's just that one side will choose Dianne Abbot to represent me, the other side Major James Cleverly MP TD". The UK at present isn't the UK of 1980's skinheads despite some problems remaining and this will affect the BME ABC1 and possibly C2 vote.
The 3rd bit of Labour's core vote - Emily Thornberry's Van vote North of Watford Gap is gone, forget about it (South of it was always C1 people who welled up when they think of Mrs Thatcher PBUH). They are no longer looking at Eton & Oxbridge graduates whose wives either "Lunch" or Design Leather Clad notepads, they are looking at a cabinet with regional accents. There are a greater number of Upper Class remaining in the Conservatives, but the kind of Upper Classes who were Platoon commanders to their great grandfather at Passchendale. The British working class like Multi Generational Posh people who consider themselves their servants a la Jacob Rees Mogg, not Ghastly Nouveau Riche Chattering classes - Viz whatever Soap Opera / TV presenter / Human Rights Barrister / Red Prince (Oooh Guacamole) Labour chuck into their Electoral Seat. Nor do they want somebody who believes they are elected to act as their University Lecturer - see pretty much all the Liberal Democrats.
The 4th is also gone. UKIP will continue to act as a Lodestone to tinfoil hat wearers & E Grades. Decide for yourself where those who previously made the Tories as huggable as an Ebola patient to group 2 and 3 will go.
Mr. Penny, delighted to be of service.
Mr. Penkridge, Thornberry is criticising May for wanting votes?
I think we may have spotted the flaw in Labour's thinking.
Won't be laying it myself but neutrals might consider it.
It is, however, one of the mental conditions where therapy has a decent chance of success.
Fred Phelps was a modern-day Brigham Young. Looked a bit like Corbyn too.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/419639/live-updates-counting-begins-2017-local-council-elections/
Lady Nugee says "So what?"
https://youtu.be/pA8nABHLQQA
Result last time:
LD 46.1%
UKIP 24.0%
Lab 23.3%
Con 6.6%
www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/results/2013/118/
Early guesstimate for turn-out in P&K is around 40%. Official stats due later.
(Perth & Kinross)