politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Professor Steve Fisher – the political scientist who got it ri

I still don't understand why - with the Tories riding high in the polls and the Lib Dems just about where they've been for the last 6 years - anyone would have been expecting significant Lib Dem gains in these elections (or in the general election). In 2013 the Tories had a national poll rating of around 30%, and the Lib Dems one of around 10%. Now?

ThreeQuidder said:

bobajobPB said:

dyedwoolie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.

Happened to me once opening with my best friend. I was so annoyed I paced round the boundarry giving him evils and he made a good fifty afterwards telling me he was scared to get out.
Oh the simple cricket days before gender dysphoria, heart condition and malaise. I miss cricket.

Gender dysphoria?

Yeah, a genuine condition that affects far fewer people than claim it.

Far more people feel comfortable to seek help with it in our more tolerant society, as evidenced by the chronic waiting lists for appointments at the various regional gender dysphoria centres. Over 18 months in some cases from first referral to appointment.

CarlottaVance said:

@samcoatestimes:

Theresa May looks - on early results - to be succeeding where Cameron failed - using Brexit to bring back votes en masses from Ukip to Con

Cameron detoxified the Party.

May has de-toffified the Party.

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

@samcoatestimes:

Theresa May looks - on early results - to be succeeding where Cameron failed - using Brexit to bring back votes en masses from Ukip to Con

Cameron detoxified the Party.

May has de-toffified the Party.

@election_data:

There are bigger factors at play here. Differential turnout is still hurting Labour, which is one reason I've been asking for less policy and more emotion in Labour's approach. We're still believing that voters must be rational actors. "Our policies are POPULAR" isn't anywhere near enough when it comes to moving people to vote. Labour doesn't do a good enough job of appending emotion to policy. Notwithstanding the obvious problems with the leader. Secondly, we are seeing a "sorting" of the Labour vote. It's retreating into very urban areas and giving up ground to the Conservatives as it retreats. There are underlying demographic reasons to explain this retreat, and Labour has thus far failed to hold the ground it has given up because it doesn't have anything to say to those voters in suburban areas

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, if Corbyn remains in place, then the Lib Dems and UKIP being weak means there's a much better chance of a new party split from Labour succeeding.

Another very big "if", but were Labour to split this year and the new party become the official opposition, it would have a five year period to build funding and an organisation, while the rump Labour party would move even further left and be dependent on activists who do not like to get out from behind their computers.

But we are getting too far ahead of ourselves. I would still expect Corbyn to lose the leadership challenge he is almost certain to face after the GE. Should that be the case, it will be curtains for the far left inside Labour.

Another crucial CON gain on Northumberland, but only four seats left to declare.

RobD said:

"...This is a routine test of the Scottish Tory Surge Klaxon..."

I was going to put "this is not a drill", except it is in fact a drill...

CarlottaVance said:

Ouch!

@rafaelbehr: More candid about results than John McDonnell. When Neil Hamilton is beating you on honesty it's time to take a good hard look at yourself.

@bbcnickrobinson: "This election is about the collapse of your party, isn't it?"
Neil Hamilton: "Yes."

UKIP are now a party selling Christmas tree baubles in January.

Scott_P said:

RobD said:

"...This is a routine test of the Scottish Tory Surge Klaxon..."

I was going to put "this is not a drill", except it is in fact a drill...

Reminded me of this... https://youtu.be/Nv5c-tV8PUo?t=40s

https://twitter.com/olivercooper/status/860403557312450562

Slackbladder said:

Chris said:

I still don't understand why - with the Tories riding high in the polls and the Lib Dems just about where they've been for the last 6 years - anyone would have been expecting significant Lib Dem gains in these elections (or in the general election). In 2013 the Tories had a national poll rating of around 30%, and the Lib Dems one of around 10%. Now?

Wishful thinking of the Remainers and certain people around.....

The other thing I can't understand is why - when wishful thinking about incumbency led the Lib Dems so badly astray in 2015 - they are indulging in another huge bout of it over Brexit. There's no sign at all in the opinion polls that they're gaining support.

Roger said:

Cyclefree said:

Morning all.

Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.

Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.

Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather

Was that intended to be helpful?

CarlottaVance said:

@bbclaurak:
Labour sources say they don't need to be winning seats in locals to be competitive in #GE2017

Errrr.... well it's a thought.

Roger said:

Cyclefree said:

Morning all.

Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.

Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.

Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather

Sorry to go all SeanT, but I'm dating a University of Manchester student, she loves that aspect and the variety.

You've got cheesy 80s to hard rock, to Lindy clubs all close together.

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/860407949155606528

Cramlington Eastfield: Tory gain from Labour.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/860408195923226627

MonikerDiCanio said:

SeanT said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

CarlottaVance said:

Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

CON 287 +172
LAB 75 -319
LD 82 +11
SNP 553 +129
GRN 12 -2

Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.

6%

Jeezo

It isn't credible.

I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.

Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.

@NumbrCruncherPolitics:

Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War

That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...

Mr. Observer, indeed, I agree with that.

Mr. Herdson, the devastation of Carthage is actually a shade overdone. It was quite soon after re-founded as a Roman city, and later became capital of an Exarchate, furnishing the Eastern Empire with Heraclius, the emperor who rescued Byzantium from Flavius Phocas and gave Chosroes, the Persian ruler, a hiding.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Woolie/Mr. Quidder, over (self-)diagnosis of psychological conditions is very common.

Show an average man a list of psychopathology symptoms, without telling him what condition that indicate, and he'll reckon he has most of them.

Likewise, women significantly over self-diagnose PMS. Studies have shown that, of those who claim to suffer it, more than 90% don't according to their own diary reports on their wellbeing [taught this by a feminist, female lecturer in a class that was 95% female, so I'm quite confident it's legitimate].

And that's without getting into other problems, like depression being the most common psych disorder, but also being a symptom of PMS, (or insomnia being a symptom of depression and *also* PMS).

OCD likewise is something people sometimes claim to have a 'touch' of.

There's a serious overdoing of pathologising quirky or unusual/eccentric behaviour, and self-diagnosis over-egging the cake on top of that.

But that's a problem inherent with the nature of the conditions. You can't x-ray someone's head and see their psychopathology bone is broken and they might become a serial killer.

In the near future we might well see some new psych problems arise by over-reliance on technology.

Indeed. That's why treatment and help is provided on the basis of what has been diagnosed by professionals. 'I'm a bit OCD' is like 'I have a twinge in my back sometimes, I have lower back pain', whereas 'I was diagnosed with severe OCD and am on x, y and z and having CBT' is rather different. Same with gender dysphoria and any number of conditions.

Scott_P said:

htxtps://twitter.com/politicshome/status/860407949155606528

Emily Thornberry says #LE2017 is a "mixed picture" so far for the Labour party

Some of it is bad. Some very bad. Some beyond the pale terrible.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/olivercooper/status/860403557312450562

Theresa May looks younger than I remember.

Must say, Cameron is a genius. Neutering LDs thanks to the coalition, and then setting up the destruction of UKIP after the EU referendum.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Observer, if Corbyn remains in place, then the Lib Dems and UKIP being weak means there's a much better chance of a new party split from Labour succeeding.

Another very big "if", but were Labour to split this year and the new party become the official opposition, it would have a five year period to build funding and an organisation, while the rump Labour party would move even further left and be dependent on activists who do not like to get out from behind their computers.

But we are getting too far ahead of ourselves. I would still expect Corbyn to lose the leadership challenge he is almost certain to face after the GE. Should that be the case, it will be curtains for the far left inside Labour.

Agreed. Corbyn (if he doesn't stand down) will be challenged, and this time he will lose. A better leader will emerge, Cooper, Lewis, Starmer, Thornberry

A slow, painful recovery will begin. Labour to win in 2027.

I think you are PROBABLY right. But one can just about see an argument from Corbyn that, " the trouble is we were too kind, we didn't cleanse the party of Blairites, and appeared split." I think Labour members are still just sane enough not to buy that. But I'm not certain.

MonikerDiCanio said:

david_herdson said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SeanT said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

CarlottaVance said:

Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

CON 287 +172
LAB 75 -319
LD 82 +11
SNP 553 +129
GRN 12 -2

Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.

6%

Jeezo

It isn't credible.

I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.

Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.

Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.

Unlikely, but the most recent YouGov subsample had them within hailing distance:

Con: 37
SNP: 40
Lab: 15

The overall impression so far is:

Pity - for Labour. Corbyn is still there. It can only get worse

Search Party requested to find UKIP. - have done the job and we now don't want them.

Sedatives on order for the LibDems - must be genuinely shocked to be in negative numbers

Sedatives on order for Tory - needed to keep them calm and sane

Holiday tour for Greens - a cycle holiday viewing windfarms across the nation

Roger said:

Cyclefree said:

Morning all.

Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.

Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.

Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather

He moans about the cold but yes he does like the place. Prefers it to London, he tells me.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs

Exactly. Sean is missing the point that it's what happens to Labour after the oncoming massive defeat that will shape the future. The civil war is breaking out on Labourlist already. Does anyone really think that Yvette Cooper will simply pick up the pieces and under a united party she will turn into the next Tony Blair by 2025?

The forthcoming battle inside Labour is going to be savage because the side that loses will be finished inside the party for a very, very long time. If the moderates do win they will lock down all processes and procedures to ensure that the far left never gets close to the leadership again. So, if Cooper did emerge I would expect that Labour would be pretty much united and ready to go at the next GE. If the far left wins, then Labour will split and the Tories will have a clear run until the 2030s.

If Labour go down to 150 seats or so, or even fewer, the Tories might have a clear run til the 2030s anyway.

I had an interesting drink with a left leaning poet friend last night. We decided that Corbyn is a kind of oracular, shamanic figure for some young voters. He's a cultic leader with a religious halo, who fulfils the spiritual hunger in godless youngsters. This is why he can say or do anything and all his flaws are explained away. He's Jim Jones. He's Brigham Young. He's guiding Labour to Salt Lake City.

We'll see how perceptions survive a double dose of cold hard reality. I don't think we'll see huge numbers of votes change sides in the next leadership election. Instead, a lot of Corbyn supporters will just slip quietly away and move on to the next thing. Corbyn will also lose the backing of Unison, which is now the biggest trade union and the GMB will be much more vocal about its dislike of him. That will leave Champagne Len and Unite - but Len's authority has been severely weakened following the recent elections, not only because his vote collapsed, but also because the hard left's grip of the national executive was severely cut.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/860408195923226627

They should use this. I'd use it on here but banning would recommence!

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/ba116fb0-e3fe-44d2-86bf-fbbe07caf537

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Cyclefree said:

Morning all.

Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.

Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.

Apparently Manchester is now the most popular university because of the night life. I guess at that age they don't worry about things like weather

Was that intended to be helpful?

Probably about as helpful as TSE sharing his knowledge of 'classical civilization'!

I've learnt a lot about historical battles on this website. (Or at least their names and results).

1 seat left to declare on Northumberland. CON need one more seat for a majority.....

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Woolie/Mr. Quidder, over (self-)diagnosis of psychological conditions is very common.

Show an average man a list of psychopathology symptoms, without telling him what condition that indicate, and he'll reckon he has most of them.

Likewise, women significantly over self-diagnose PMS. Studies have shown that, of those who claim to suffer it, more than 90% don't according to their own diary reports on their wellbeing [taught this by a feminist, female lecturer in a class that was 95% female, so I'm quite confident it's legitimate].

And that's without getting into other problems, like depression being the most common psych disorder, but also being a symptom of PMS, (or insomnia being a symptom of depression and *also* PMS).

OCD likewise is something people sometimes claim to have a 'touch' of.

There's a serious overdoing of pathologising quirky or unusual/eccentric behaviour, and self-diagnosis over-egging the cake on top of that.

But that's a problem inherent with the nature of the conditions. You can't x-ray someone's head and see their psychopathology bone is broken and they might become a serial killer.

In the near future we might well see some new psych problems arise by over-reliance on technology.

OCD is a really horrible condition. I know because someone very close to me has it. I hate it when people say they are a "bit OCD" when they mean they like things to be tidy. If you've seen what it does to people close up you would never claim to have it. It can - if the right sort of therapy is not obtained - destroy lives, not just of those who suffer from it but those around them.

IanB2 said:

RobD said:

1 seat left to declare on Northumberland. CON need one more seat for a majority.....

Some independent will prop them up whatever

Always good to have a majority though

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

@NumbrCruncherPolitics:

Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War

That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...

That sounds plausible, but we'll have a lot more data today. The results so far are actually better than the 15-20-point lead in polls, especially in most of Wales despite expectations. But the West Country result is great for the Torie and clearly Destroy UKIP is working very well in their favour.

On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?

Very fair post Nick

Apparently this is The Coach & Horses in Doncaster... @Tissue_Price gonna canvass?

https://twitter.com/leonnoble82/status/859108441251618817

david_herdson said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ThreeQuidder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.

+1.

A hat trick is bloody troublesome. Especially if you're handling a scoreboard as well.

Runs off wides also caused me so much grief. Almost as much as being stumped off a wide.

Just imagine a hat-trick completed accross two overs and one of them was stumped off a wide.

At my level of cricket, it's trying to fit in the 6 wides an over one of our bowler needs when he gets the yips...

And worse, when it happens after five legit deliveries have been bowled.

That is as nothing compared to this set of figures:
1.1-0-69-0
http://www.espncricinfo.com/bangladesh/content/story/1095981.html
A tragic story, which manages not to mention the poor scorer.

NickPalmer said:

CarlottaVance said:

@NumbrCruncherPolitics:

Swing from LAB to CON running at about 7%. Suggests a similar national margin for the Tories as in 1982, which was during the Falklands War

That means high single digits or low double digits, depending on later results, turnout patterns, and so on...

On the last thread, IanB2 said Labour tended to do better in local elections than national. Is that actually correct? The LibDems do, but Labour?

I read one psephologist comment (apologies cannot re-find it) that the locals would represent a 'ceiling for Labour and floor for the Tories' - we'll know soon enough!

Cyclefree said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Woolie/Mr. Quidder, over (self-)diagnosis of psychological conditions is very common.

Show an average man a list of psychopathology symptoms, without telling him what condition that indicate, and he'll reckon he has most of them.

Likewise, women significantly over self-diagnose PMS. Studies have shown that, of those who claim to suffer it, more than 90% don't according to their own diary reports on their wellbeing [taught this by a feminist, female lecturer in a class that was 95% female, so I'm quite confident it's legitimate].

And that's without getting into other problems, like depression being the most common psych disorder, but also being a symptom of PMS, (or insomnia being a symptom of depression and *also* PMS).

OCD likewise is something people sometimes claim to have a 'touch' of.

There's a serious overdoing of pathologising quirky or unusual/eccentric behaviour, and self-diagnosis over-egging the cake on top of that.

But that's a problem inherent with the nature of the conditions. You can't x-ray someone's head and see their psychopathology bone is broken and they might become a serial killer.

In the near future we might well see some new psych problems arise by over-reliance on technology.

OCD is a really horrible condition. I know because someone very close to me has it. I hate it when people say they are a "bit OCD" when they mean they like things to be tidy. If you've seen what it does to people close up you would never claim to have it. It can - if the right sort of therapy is not obtained - destroy lives, not just of those who suffer from it but those around them.

Indeed. Destructive rituals and intrusive thought can be a very severe blight on quality of life. Cheapening that struggle with flippant claims to be a sufferer is a terrible thing. You can't be 'a bit ocd', if you have OCD you know about it.

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

SeanT said:

There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs

Exactly. Sean is missing the point that it's what happens to Labour after the oncoming massive defeat that will shape the future. The civil war is breaking out on Labourlist already. Does anyone really think that Yvette Cooper will simply pick up the pieces and under a united party she will turn into the next Tony Blair by 2025?

The forthcoming battle inside Labour is going to be savage because the side that loses will be finished inside the party for a very, very long time. If the moderates do win they will lock down all processes and procedures to ensure that the far left never gets close to the leadership again. So, if Cooper did emerge I would expect that Labour would be pretty much united and ready to go at the next GE. If the far left wins, then Labour will split and the Tories will have a clear run until the 2030s.

If Labour go down to 150 seats or so, or even fewer, the Tories might have a clear run til the 2030s anyway.

I had an interesting drink with a left leaning poet friend last night. We decided that Corbyn is a kind of oracular, shamanic figure for some young voters. He's a cultic leader with a religious halo, who fulfils the spiritual hunger in godless youngsters. This is why he can say or do anything and all his flaws are explained away. He's Jim Jones. He's Brigham Young. He's guiding Labour to Salt Lake City.

.......Or getting them castrated for their trip on hale bopp

Regarding the earlier debate point on whether the UKIP collapse will cause problems long terms for the Tories and re-toxify their brand. The Tories cannot detoxify their brand to the Public sector & Charity sector Metropolitan areas where Labour's Diversity Outreach co-ordinator vote lives. They will continue to say "But why don't the people understand, the poor fools, Socialism is the answer". Ditto the "We should stay in the EU because Waitrose will run out of Organic Tapenade". But that demographic is split with the Liberal Democrats. Incidentally I believe Labour will not de-toxify themselves to Private sector workers post Corbyn regardless of whether the UK ends up as North Korea or not post Brexit.

2ndly nor do I believe will it affect their BME 1st/2nd Generation vote. But even there seeing Kemi Badenoch stand up and represent (and she almost certainly will) the distinctly un "Street" Saffron Waldon with its 98% white vote. I believe that many BME voters will look at that and say to themselves "well both sides want my vote, both sides represent me, it's just that one side will choose Dianne Abbot to represent me, the other side Major James Cleverly MP TD". The UK at present isn't the UK of 1980's skinheads despite some problems remaining and this will affect the BME ABC1 and possibly C2 vote.

The 3rd bit of Labour's core vote - Emily Thornberry's Van vote North of Watford Gap is gone, forget about it (South of it was always C1 people who welled up when they think of Mrs Thatcher PBUH). They are no longer looking at Eton & Oxbridge graduates whose wives either "Lunch" or Design Leather Clad notepads, they are looking at a cabinet with regional accents. There are a greater number of Upper Class remaining in the Conservatives, but the kind of Upper Classes who were Platoon commanders to their great grandfather at Passchendale. The British working class like Multi Generational Posh people who consider themselves their servants a la Jacob Rees Mogg, not Ghastly Nouveau Riche Chattering classes - Viz whatever Soap Opera / TV presenter / Human Rights Barrister / Red Prince (Oooh Guacamole) Labour chuck into their Electoral Seat. Nor do they want somebody who believes they are elected to act as their University Lecturer - see pretty much all the Liberal Democrats.

The 4th is also gone. UKIP will continue to act as a Lodestone to tinfoil hat wearers & E Grades. Decide for yourself where those who previously made the Tories as huggable as an Ebola patient to group 2 and 3 will go.

I'm going to West Ham v Spurs tonight, astonished to see Spurs are 2/5. OK they're on fire and West Ham are rubbish but this is their biggest game of the season, 2/5 is just wrong.

Won't be laying it myself but neutrals might consider it.

Cyclefree said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Woolie/Mr. Quidder, over (self-)diagnosis of psychological conditions is very common.

Show an average man a list of psychopathology symptoms, without telling him what condition that indicate, and he'll reckon he has most of them.

Likewise, women significantly over self-diagnose PMS. Studies have shown that, of those who claim to suffer it, more than 90% don't according to their own diary reports on their wellbeing [taught this by a feminist, female lecturer in a class that was 95% female, so I'm quite confident it's legitimate].

And that's without getting into other problems, like depression being the most common psych disorder, but also being a symptom of PMS, (or insomnia being a symptom of depression and *also* PMS).

OCD likewise is something people sometimes claim to have a 'touch' of.

There's a serious overdoing of pathologising quirky or unusual/eccentric behaviour, and self-diagnosis over-egging the cake on top of that.

But that's a problem inherent with the nature of the conditions. You can't x-ray someone's head and see their psychopathology bone is broken and they might become a serial killer.

In the near future we might well see some new psych problems arise by over-reliance on technology.

OCD is a really horrible condition. I know because someone very close to me has it. I hate it when people say they are a "bit OCD" when they mean they like things to be tidy. If you've seen what it does to people close up you would never claim to have it. It can - if the right sort of therapy is not obtained - destroy lives, not just of those who suffer from it but those around them.

Indeed - it's a manifestation of severe chronic anxiety, not persnickettiness.
It is, however, one of the mental conditions where therapy has a decent chance of success.

Link to counts in NE Scotland:

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/419639/live-updates-counting-begins-2017-local-council-elections/

Mcmao excuses in regards to the flags about as believable as somebody caught in a knocking shop raid claiming they only came for a massage and didn't know it included a happy ending.

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/860410852905799680

Lady Nugee says "So what?"

https://youtu.be/pA8nABHLQQA

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

david_herdson said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

SeanT said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

CarlottaVance said:

Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

CON 287 +172
LAB 75 -319
LD 82 +11
SNP 553 +129
GRN 12 -2

Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.

6%

Jeezo

It isn't credible.

I have seen at least one Scottish subsample for a Westminster VI with Labour on 6% but no, I don't think it's likely.

Apart from anything else, STV and the cautious nominations made by other parties will protect them from a complete wipeout.

Scottish politics is in turmoil for sure. The Scottish Conservatives might even edge the Nats today.

I suppose you Yoons have to hope so, otherwise Tessy's objections to Indy Ref II are naught but dust.

“We will also be looking forward to the local elections in May, when voters across Scotland will have the chance to send a clear message to the SNP that they do not want a second independence referendum, by voting Scottish Conservative and Unionist on 4 May.”

Wonder how many councils SCON will have outright control of out of 32?

@C_JBuchan:

Early guesstimate for turn-out in P&K is around 40%. Official stats due later.

(Perth & Kinross)