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edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Professor Steve Fisher – the political scientist who got it right yet again

So far Steve Fisher's prediction on Tuesday looking pretty good https://t.co/2ELo3ROjN7

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    first
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @keiranpedley: One plus for Corbyn supporters is that voters appear to be listening to their 'why don't you just sod of and join the Tories?' message.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Second!
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    @keiranpedley: One plus for Corbyn supporters is that voters appear to be listening to their 'why don't you just sod of and join the Tories?' message.

    :D
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    REPOST:

    >>Bob__Sykes Posts: 922
    8:31AM
    Pulpstar said:

    » show previous quotes
    Blimey - that's an ominous post for Labour if ever there was one.

    Mayorals will be higher turnout than the locals or not ?>>>




    I'd love it not to have the Scouse failed Labour politician controlling many aspects of my day to day life (in many ways he will have more impact on me than anything Mrs May does or doesn't do), but I am resigned to him winning comfortably. I saw McDonnell on BBC1 a minute or two ago turning the focus to "let's wait and see what happens in the north west of England, that is where many key marginals are, that is where Mrs May has been focussing her campaigning" so I took that as meaning Labour think GM and Merseyside are both comfortably in the bag.

    And they surely both are.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Hurrah for Professor Fisher.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    The higher turnout is fascinating and encouraging. Has Brexit energised all politics? Everyone's predicting a low, apathetic turnout in June. What if it's actually up 5% from last time, like the locals? How will that affect results?

    Either way: a good thing

    First time in a long while for the locals to be mid GE campaign though.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    SeanT said:

    The higher turnout is fascinating and encouraging. Has Brexit energised all politics? Everyone's predicting a low, apathetic turnout in June. What if it's actually up 5% from last time, like the locals? How will that affect results?

    Either way: a good thing

    I'm on 63%+, can't see it dropping back to the 2000/2005 election turnout which were the most boring elections ever invented.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Sheffield Hallam - 16-1 Tories?

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/ge-2017-v-english-constituencies/225068442/
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Bob__Sykes said:

    REPOST:

    >>Bob__Sykes Posts: 922
    8:31AM
    Pulpstar said:

    » show previous quotes
    Blimey - that's an ominous post for Labour if ever there was one.

    Mayorals will be higher turnout than the locals or not ?>>>




    I'd love it not to have the Scouse failed Labour politician controlling many aspects of my day to day life (in many ways he will have more impact on me than anything Mrs May does or doesn't do), but I am resigned to him winning comfortably. I saw McDonnell on BBC1 a minute or two ago turning the focus to "let's wait and see what happens in the north west of England, that is where many key marginals are, that is where Mrs May has been focussing her campaigning" so I took that as meaning Labour think GM and Merseyside are both comfortably in the bag.

    And they surely both are.

    Rotheram for Liverpool was always baggy mcbaggyshire territory, I'm surprised the bookies started off at 1-10 and not 1-20.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    At least labour haven't sent out Harriet Harman to try to spin this....
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Sheffield Hallam - 16-1 Tories?

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/ge-2017-v-english-constituencies/225068442/

    Oh Hallam itself, sorry I was referring to sub 10 seats.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Ah, the Progressive Alliance. They don't stand a chance against the Evil Empire :smiley:
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Well done Prof Fisher - the guy certainly has an awesome track record.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Scott_P said:

    @keiranpedley: One plus for Corbyn supporters is that voters appear to be listening to their 'why don't you just sod of and join the Tories?' message.

    Titter.......
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    RobD said:

    Ah, the Progressive Alliance. They don't stand a chance against the Evil Empire :smiley:

    Theresa May has taken Paul Nuttall and sucked the lifeforce out of his party.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Sounds like a smart cookie.

    The enormo-haddock attribute this to his piscine credentials.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    SeanT said:

    The higher turnout is fascinating and encouraging. Has Brexit energised all politics? Everyone's predicting a low, apathetic turnout in June. What if it's actually up 5% from last time, like the locals? How will that affect results?

    Either way: a good thing

    I suspect that the campaigning for the GE has had a lot to do with that. A higher percentage of the public will have noticed that those weird political types are making even more noise than usual and decided that something must be going on.

    Although I did see a series of vox pops the other day from people who still thought David Cameron was PM so I wouldn't want to overstate this.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Facebook reminds me that today is the anniversary of the AV referendum
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    On Labourlist the knives are out for the MPs already and several posters are suggesting the solution is to stand Momentum Corbynite candidates against moderate Labour MPs in the GE to get rid of them!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. B2, that does sound like a proposal for a circular firing squad.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Facebook reminds me that today is the anniversary of the AV referendum

    A dark day.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    RobD said:

    Second!

    I see the mods have put my handicap suggestion into action straight away!
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Unless there are some truly stunning results today I still think Prof Fisher will have overstated Tory gains by quite a margin. He may well prove to be closer than the more traditional modelling though. Quite impressive for what he seemed to regard himself as a back of a fag packet job not to be taken too seriously.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Facebook reminds me that today is the anniversary of the AV referendum

    A dark day.
    I didn't realise. I should retract my earlier comment.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Second!

    I see the mods have put my handicap suggestion into action straight away!
    I didn't even get second... :p
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2
  • BudG
    BudG Posts: 711
    SeanT said:

    The higher turnout is fascinating and encouraging. Has Brexit energised all politics? Everyone's predicting a low, apathetic turnout in June. What if it's actually up 5% from last time, like the locals? How will that affect results?

    Either way: a good thing

    Sadly, there is probably a small proportion of our electorate that is so out of touch that they actually thought they were voting in the GE yesterday. :(
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    Great results for the Tories in Northumberland, winning places like Cramlington Village with big majorities.

    http://www.northumberland.gov.uk/Councillors/Vote.aspx#countydivisionelectionsthursday4may2017
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

    Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    Labour heading for fourth party? A few years ago that would have been 1000/1
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    AndyJS said:

    Great results for the Tories in Northumberland, winning places like Cramlington Village with big majorities.

    Running out of seats to get overall control though... 12 to declare, they need to gain 4 in addition to holding their last remaining seat.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    FPT:

    I thought now might be a good time for a periodical re-posting of Morris Dancer's Wonderful List of Labour Possibilities, Arranged and Compared to Historical Battlefield Performances of the Roman Empire:
    -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
    -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
    -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama

    You may need to extend the losses column. How about Endor?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Sheffield Hallam - 16-1 Tories?

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/ge-2017-v-english-constituencies/225068442/

    Well worth a punt.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    @david_herdson... LOL :D
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    Second!

    I see the mods have put my handicap suggestion into action straight away!
    I didn't even get second... :p
    My point precisely. The algorithm reads whatever position is claimed and slots your post in one below it,...
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Both Sporting and Spreadex's GE Seats markets are suspended this morning with the spread-betting firms preferring to sit on their hands.
    Meanwhile their fixed odds cousins appear to have shortened their odds against the Tories, where for example on the Total Seats Over/Under Market, Ladbrohes now go 393.5 seats (+5) for the Tories, 162.5 for Labour, with the Yellow Team slipping below the 20 seat mark at 19.5 seats.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    SeanT said:

    Judging by the state of RobD's sheets - ahem - there won't be another flood of results til the arvo? When's the best time to grab another 3 hours of kip?

    Probably right now! Some councils will start counting at 10am, so maybe results start trickling in at 11-12.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    SeanT said:

    Judging by the state of RobD's sheets - ahem - there won't be another flood of results til the arvo? When's the best time to grab another 3 hours of kip?

    A couple of hours now, as the counts are just opening and there'll be little news until later
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

    Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
    I think it refers to the boys who used to run up and down the manual scoreboxes adding runs to the totals.

  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Sheffield Hallam - 16-1 Tories?

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/ge-2017-v-english-constituencies/225068442/

    Well worth a punt.
    only let me put a tenner on it but put the rest on the spanners tonight as a hedge.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

    Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
    Happened to me once opening with my best friend. I was so annoyed I paced round the boundarry giving him evils and he made a good fifty afterwards telling me he was scared to get out.
    Oh the simple cricket days before gender dysphoria, heart condition and malaise. I miss cricket.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    It's a single piece of anecdata, but a few weeks ago I mentioned that I had chatted to a supermarket checkout lady who said that the Brexit referendum was her first ever vote, and that she'd vote again in the general.

    She was (I think) in her fifties.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Hurrah for Professor Fisher.

    You certainly want to be peering over his shoulder in the bookies when he's placing a bet....
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    david_herdson said:

    FPT:

    I thought now might be a good time for a periodical re-posting of Morris Dancer's Wonderful List of Labour Possibilities, Arranged and Compared to Historical Battlefield Performances of the Roman Empire:
    -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
    -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
    -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama

    You may need to extend the losses column. How about Endor?

    I once did a thread that referenced the battle of the forest moon of Endor.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/08/23/corbyns-path-to-number-10/
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

    Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
    +1.

    A hat trick is bloody troublesome. Especially if you're handling a scoreboard as well.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Sheffield Hallam - 16-1 Tories?

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/ge-2017-v-english-constituencies/225068442/

    Well worth a punt.
    What is the point of Nick Clegg any more? He had his chance. He's like voting for month-old Y-fronts.....
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    dyedwoolie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

    Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
    Happened to me once opening with my best friend. I was so annoyed I paced round the boundarry giving him evils and he made a good fifty afterwards telling me he was scared to get out.
    Oh the simple cricket days before gender dysphoria, heart condition and malaise. I miss cricket.
    Gender dysphoria?
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    JosiasJessop said:

    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    It's a single piece of anecdata, but a few weeks ago I mentioned that I had chatted to a supermarket checkout lady who said that the Brexit referendum was her first ever vote, and that she'd vote again in the general.

    She was (I think) in her fifties.
    Which is why these local elections are likely to be the Labour high water mark.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. B2, that does sound like a proposal for a circular firing squad.

    The proposal is for a loyalty test and then.... If they can reply positively to these questions then leave them alone. If not then they clearly do not believe in democracy and must be removed. Whatever it takes, even if it risks losing the seat that is a worthwhile price to restore unity.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Has Cat Smith given her take on the election results?

    I'll be gutted if I missed that comedy gold.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who has scored cricket matches, let me assure you that nothing troubles the scorers like a flurry of wickets.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    If the Conservatives get 48% in the General Election will they be able to claim the mantle as the party of said percentage?
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    Labour on 6%? How the hell does he get that? I expect them to be very high teens.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Herdson, funny you should mention that (and Labour are more in danger of being Alderaan...) but I have some back-ups (though that means shifting to the Eastern Empire), namely the Fourth Crusade and Manzikert.

    I like the idea of using Kleidion, although that was a Roman victory, of course.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    FPT:
    IanB2 said:

    On Labourlist the knives are out for the MPs already and several posters are suggesting the solution is to stand Momentum Corbynite candidates against moderate Labour MPs in the GE to get rid of them!

    Genius.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    FPT:

    I thought now might be a good time for a periodical re-posting of Morris Dancer's Wonderful List of Labour Possibilities, Arranged and Compared to Historical Battlefield Performances of the Roman Empire:
    -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
    -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
    -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama

    You may need to extend the losses column. How about Endor?

    I once did a thread that referenced the battle of the forest moon of Endor.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/08/23/corbyns-path-to-number-10/
    Is the moon called Endor, or is it a moon around the planet Endor?

    *runs away*
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    SLab in fourth?! How the once mighty have fallen.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    PA Summary of highlights:

    Severe blows for Labour in the south Wales valleys, with independents taking control of Blaenau Gwent and the result on a knife-edge in Merthyr Tydfil;

    Labour losing control of Bridgend - the stronghold of first minister and Welsh Labour leader Carwyn Jones, which Theresa May had targeted with a campaign visit;

    Better news for Labour in Doncaster, where Ros Jones was re-elected as mayor after taking more than 50% of the vote in the first round, and the Welsh councils of Newport and Neath Port Talbot, where it held on to control;

    Victory for Conservative Tim Bowles over Labour’s Lesley Mansell in the run-off for the West of England metro mayoral post, covering Bristol and Bath;

    A Ukip wipeout in former stronghold Lincolnshire, where Conservatives took overall control;

    Conservatives replace Labour as the largest party in Cumbria;

    Tories took a clean sweep in the bellwether town of Harlow - visited by Jeremy Corbyn the week before the vote - on their way to retaining control in Essex;

    Tories gain control in Warwickshire as Labour’s representation collapses from 22 to 10;

    Conservative leader of Somerset defeated by Liberal Democrat former MP Tessa Munt, though Tories retained control of the council;

    Boost for Lib Dems in Hampshire, where ex-MP Mike Thornton in Eastleigh secured one of three gains from Ukip.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    bobajobPB said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

    Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
    Happened to me once opening with my best friend. I was so annoyed I paced round the boundarry giving him evils and he made a good fifty afterwards telling me he was scared to get out.
    Oh the simple cricket days before gender dysphoria, heart condition and malaise. I miss cricket.
    Gender dysphoria?
    Yes. Perhaps I should phrase it 'in the days before facing up to gender dysphoria'
  • Arthur_Penny
    Arthur_Penny Posts: 198
    I think when comparing NEV with 2013 one should remember that in 2015 there was a 3.6% swing to Labour in the election in England
    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    UKIP collapsing is NOT good news for Labour, since more are going Tory than Labour.

    Worse still - I expect that where Labour DO pick up a sizeable UKIP vote, it will be in their 'solid' seats, not the marginals.

    And we are about to see another Scottish-style realignment in the next few hours : Nationalists V Unionists - with Labour stick in the middle.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    FPT:

    I thought now might be a good time for a periodical re-posting of Morris Dancer's Wonderful List of Labour Possibilities, Arranged and Compared to Historical Battlefield Performances of the Roman Empire:
    -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
    -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
    -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama

    You may need to extend the losses column. How about Endor?

    I once did a thread that referenced the battle of the forest moon of Endor.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/08/23/corbyns-path-to-number-10/
    Is the moon called Endor, or is it a moon around the planet Endor?

    *runs away*

    Oi. Star Wars day is over.

    *drags RobD back*

  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Herdson, funny you should mention that (and Labour are more in danger of being Alderaan...) but I have some back-ups (though that means shifting to the Eastern Empire), namely the Fourth Crusade and Manzikert.

    I like the idea of using Kleidion, although that was a Roman victory, of course.

    If you're going to use victories, then the Third Punic War would have to rank fairly highly.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

    Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
    +1.

    A hat trick is bloody troublesome. Especially if you're handling a scoreboard as well.
    Runs off wides also caused me so much grief. Almost as much as being stumped off a wide.

    Just imagine a hat-trick completed accross two overs and one of them was stumped off a wide.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited May 2017
    Crucial CON gain from LAB in Northumberland (Pegswood ward). Now only four seats to get a majority, with one which should be in the bag.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SeanT said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    Prof Fisher predicting SLab to get 6 % in Scotland.
    6%

    Jeezo
    It isn't credible.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Hmm .... I recall that a couple of eminent unnamed PBers rubbished Stephen Fisher's highly caveated local election predictions when I was the first to highlight these on Tuesday.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    Labour on 6%? How the hell does he get that? I expect them to be very high teens.
    He does write:

    The most striking and dubious consequence of simply projecting change in the Westminster polls on the local election first-preference vote share is the application of 25 point drop to the Labour vote, bringing it down to just 6%, below that of the Liberal Democrats. Take that with a big pinch of salt!

    Still, the projection at least raises important questions as to how far Labour can fall and how changes in the polls relate to changes in local election voting. Probably the local popularity of some incumbent Labour councillors will help limit the damage. What seems in little doubt is that Labour are set to lose substantial numbers of votes and seats.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
    Exactly. Sean is missing the point that it's what happens to Labour after the oncoming massive defeat that will shape the future. The civil war is breaking out on Labourlist already. Does anyone really think that Yvette Cooper will simply pick up the pieces and under a united party she will turn into the next Tony Blair by 2025?
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    david_herdson said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    SLab in fourth?! How the once mighty have fallen.
    That is Terminal.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    FPT:

    I thought now might be a good time for a periodical re-posting of Morris Dancer's Wonderful List of Labour Possibilities, Arranged and Compared to Historical Battlefield Performances of the Roman Empire:
    -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
    -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
    -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama

    You may need to extend the losses column. How about Endor?

    I once did a thread that referenced the battle of the forest moon of Endor.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/08/23/corbyns-path-to-number-10/
    Is the moon called Endor, or is it a moon around the planet Endor?

    *runs away*
    Both apparently

    http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Endor
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

    Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
    +1.

    A hat trick is bloody troublesome. Especially if you're handling a scoreboard as well.
    Runs off wides also caused me so much grief. Almost as much as being stumped off a wide.

    Just imagine a hat-trick completed accross two overs and one of them was stumped off a wide.
    At my level of cricket, it's trying to fit in the 6 wides an over one of our bowler needs when he gets the yips...
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    david_herdson said:

    FPT:

    I thought now might be a good time for a periodical re-posting of Morris Dancer's Wonderful List of Labour Possibilities, Arranged and Compared to Historical Battlefield Performances of the Roman Empire:
    -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
    -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
    -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama

    You may need to extend the losses column. How about Endor?

    I once did a thread that referenced the battle of the forest moon of Endor.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/08/23/corbyns-path-to-number-10/
    Is the moon called Endor, or is it a moon around the planet Endor?

    *runs away*
    Both apparently

    http://starwars.wikia.com/wiki/Endor
    Moon of Endor around the planet of Endor in the system of Endor. Right :D
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
    Exactly. Sean is missing the point that it's what happens to Labour after the oncoming massive defeat that will shape the future. The civil war is breaking out on Labourlist already. Does anyone really think that Yvette Cooper will simply pick up the pieces and under a united party she will turn into the next Tony Blair by 2025?
    There really needs to be a split. It might take ten years for the dust from it to settle, but i can't see how the two halves of the divide can be reconciled. A centre-ish party needs to form from the ashes and then compete with the Tories.

    I might be a Tory voter, but I'd like an second option if needed, and no-one is close to providing it at the moment.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited May 2017
    Europe Elects showing Con vote share at 47%, Lab 22% - but caveat that votes lags seat info as votes published later

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860399853041594369
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Devolution will kill Scottish Nationalism Labour stone dead

  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    Morning all.

    Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.

    Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    peter_from_putney said:

    Hmm .... I recall that a couple of eminent unnamed PBers rubbished Stephen Fisher's highly caveated local election predictions when I was the first to highlight these on Tuesday.

    He was simply reading the change in national polling VI across onto local election results, which normally doesn't work. I guess the lesson is that national VI is more important when the locals take place in the middle of a GE campaign?
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Herdson, that's a war rather than a shorter incident (I know you might argue the Fourth Crusade was too, but that would be to define a particularly bad, potentially terminal, result).

    I wouldn't rank the Third Punic War highly, actually. It was a superpower versus a city-state, and the Romans took three or four years to win. It was easily their least impressive war victory over the Carthaginians.

    It's also worth noting the original list had Cannae, at -70 seats, as the worst result. Then the terrible polls for Labour came out and others suggested a few more.

    Now it's being suggested, badger-style, that the goalposts need to be moved again, once more in a bad way for Labour.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    Crucial CON gain from LAB in Northumberland (Pegswood ward). Now only four seats to get a majority, with one which should be in the bag.

    Maybe Blyth Valley and Wansbeck are in play for the general election with results like this.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Election show now on BBC2!
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Miss Cyclefree, hope your young fellow has a fine day, and your young lady enjoys great success in her examination. Clearly as wise as her mother to pick such a splendid subject.

    Alas, I only really got into history after I was already at university...
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    From four weeks ago:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/08/in-the-local-by-elections-since-last-may-the-parties-supported-mostly-by-remainers-have-performed-best/
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    Labour on 6%? How the hell does he get that? I expect them to be very high teens.
    And to paraphrase Paddy Ashdown, greens losing seats? I'll eat my hat.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited May 2017
    I thought for a brief moment that the photo at the top was the new 'great white hope' who was taking over from Corbyn.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

    Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
    +1.

    A hat trick is bloody troublesome. Especially if you're handling a scoreboard as well.
    Runs off wides also caused me so much grief. Almost as much as being stumped off a wide.

    Just imagine a hat-trick completed accross two overs and one of them was stumped off a wide.
    At my level of cricket, it's trying to fit in the 6 wides an over one of our bowler needs when he gets the yips...
    I had the yips as a teenager.

    My most memorable bowling spell

    3-0-65-6 (42 wides)

    Off the six wickets two were stumped off wides whilst the others were all caught on the boundary.

    One of my deliveries need cleaned out the square leg umpire.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    If is a very big word, but I do agree.

    Labour and Tory are both coalitions, and the Tory one is getting a lot bigger as right wing voters move from UKIP and moderates who may previously have voted Labour or LD move across too. I am not sure whether that is something that can survive the Brexit process. It does all depend on what happens in the centre left. If Labour comes to its senses and moves back to the centre, a bad Brexit could see some sharp movements back quite rapidly. If Labour doesn't - and there has to be a significant chance of that - then the party is bound to split, so gifting the Tories power for a much longer period.

  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Ouch!

    @rafaelbehr: More candid about results than John McDonnell. When Neil Hamilton is beating you on honesty it's time to take a good hard look at yourself.

    @bbcnickrobinson: "This election is about the collapse of your party, isn't it?"
    Neil Hamilton: "Yes."
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2017
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
    As I predicted recently, it will somewhat inevitably be called the Progressive (aargh!) Democratic Party. When combined with say 20 or more LibDems, if it can it muster 100 or more MPs in the HoC, it would then stand every chance of becoming H.M.'s Official Opposition.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Observer, if Corbyn remains in place, then the Lib Dems and UKIP being weak means there's a much better chance of a new party split from Labour succeeding.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Cyclefree said:

    Morning all.

    Never mind these piffling elections. Today is my youngest's 19th birthday - the first one when I will not see him (sniff - he's in Manchester, the git) and the first day of my daughter's finals (she's studying Classical Civilisation). Oh and it's also the 196th anniversary of Napoleon's death.

    Plus the sun is finally shining - at least here in North West London.

    Happy birthday to your son.

    You should have told me about your daughter studying classical civilisation, I would have loved to share my knowledge on it with her.
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    bobajobPB said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who used to score cricket matches, that phrase annoys me no end.

    Even if you get a duck, you trouble the scorers, even if you are run out facing a ball.
    Happened to me once opening with my best friend. I was so annoyed I paced round the boundarry giving him evils and he made a good fifty afterwards telling me he was scared to get out.
    Oh the simple cricket days before gender dysphoria, heart condition and malaise. I miss cricket.
    Gender dysphoria?
    Yeah, a genuine condition that affects far fewer people than claim it.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    A big if but yes, if not moderate Labour types may have to do a Macron and form a new centrist party with the LDs
    Exactly. Sean is missing the point that it's what happens to Labour after the oncoming massive defeat that will shape the future. The civil war is breaking out on Labourlist already. Does anyone really think that Yvette Cooper will simply pick up the pieces and under a united party she will turn into the next Tony Blair by 2025?

    The forthcoming battle inside Labour is going to be savage because the side that loses will be finished inside the party for a very, very long time. If the moderates do win they will lock down all processes and procedures to ensure that the far left never gets close to the leadership again. So, if Cooper did emerge I would expect that Labour would be pretty much united and ready to go at the next GE. If the far left wins, then Labour will split and the Tories will have a clear run until the 2030s.

  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    So are UKIP still to trouble the scorers ?

    As someone who has scored cricket matches, let me assure you that nothing troubles the scorers like a flurry of wickets.
    It really does not surprise me that we have multiple people here who have scored cricket matches :)
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    SouthamObserver said:

    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    If is a very big word, but I do agree.

    Labour and Tory are both coalitions, and the Tory one is getting a lot bigger as right wing voters move from UKIP and moderates who may previously have voted Labour or LD move across too. I am not sure whether that is something that can survive the Brexit process. It does all depend on what happens in the centre left. If Labour comes to its senses and moves back to the centre, a bad Brexit could see some sharp movements back quite rapidly. If Labour doesn't - and there has to be a significant chance of that - then the party is bound to split, so gifting the Tories power for a much longer period.

    The coming recession is the test. Having no opposition to turn to is a dangerous position to be in.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Slackbladder said:

    david_herdson said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Prof Fisher on the Scottish locals:

    https://electionsetc.com/2017/05/03/scottish-local-elections-forecast-2017/

    CON 287 +172
    LAB 75 -319
    LD 82 +11
    SNP 553 +129
    GRN 12 -2

    SLab in fourth?! How the once mighty have fallen.
    That is Terminal.
    Terminal 5. Flight to Caracas.....
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    SouthamObserver said:

    SeanT said:

    There is good news hidden in these dire results for Labour.

    UKIP is collapsing, the LDs are moribund. Both could theoretically have replaced them as the main Opposition after Brexit, if we'd seen a massive, Scottish-style realignment. But it seems that ain't the case - yet.

    Labour will survive. If and when they come to their senses, they will return to power.

    If is a very big word, but I do agree.

    Labour and Tory are both coalitions, and the Tory one is getting a lot bigger as right wing voters move from UKIP and moderates who may previously have voted Labour or LD move across too. I am not sure whether that is something that can survive the Brexit process. It does all depend on what happens in the centre left. If Labour comes to its senses and moves back to the centre, a bad Brexit could see some sharp movements back quite rapidly. If Labour doesn't - and there has to be a significant chance of that - then the party is bound to split, so gifting the Tories power for a much longer period.

    It's going to be fascinating to see what happens to labour. As you say, there's a lot of 'if's there. Can labour be leadable in it's current state, now the far-left have a taste of being in charge, can and will they give it up, and can the moderates gavanise themselves into a force?
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