politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and

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  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    What's happened to Plato?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    NeilVW said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour's first loss, in Wrexham, has coloured up on their defence list in Wales:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=1661992236

    Two of the three Labour losses in Wrexham don't appear as defences in your spreadsheet, so presumably that indicates previous majorities of more than 25%?
    That's right.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    There's a LD loss to Con in North Dorset that went thru I think
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,742
    tyson said:

    What's happened to Plato?

    Banned.
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    LBC just had a klaxon.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,611
    IanB2 said:

    The spreadsheet is behind the twitter feeds

    Yeah, no way one man can keep up! The thing I like the most about the spreadsheet is the change matrix thing, seeing how the seats changed.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    HurstLlama said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Wrexham LAB vote down around 7-10% across the seats declared so far (avg by eye).

    I think it is a bit more than that, Mr. Wiggs. Looks like about a 30% swing from Labour to Conservative. Got to be some local factors in play, surely.
    The good burghers of Wales don't like Labour any more. It is no huge surprise - I have family there, it has been massively let down by Labour leadership at council, assembly and in many cases Parliamentary levels.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    LD hold Offa ward Wrexham. Sounds like a good solid ward.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    New thread by the way.
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    tyson said:

    What's happened to Plato?

    We're banned from talking about that.
  • RobinWiggs
    RobinWiggs Posts: 621
    edited May 2017
    HurstLlama said:

    RobinWiggs said:

    Wrexham LAB vote down around 7-10% across the seats declared so far (avg by eye).

    I think it is a bit more than that, Mr. Wiggs. Looks like about a 30% swing from Labour to Conservative. Got to be some local factors in play, surely.
    I've not counted in a couple of the really big swings (one of which was a 44% drop for Labour in a seat where the Lab councillor switched to IND).

    But by sight the avg drop in Lab vote is now around 10% plus... which will see the Tories comfortably take it.

  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    New thread
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    tyson said:

    What's happened to Plato?

    Banned.
    No...that is not fair.

    Did she have some kind of psychotic episode?

  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Please can someone link to spreadsheet being discussed which is updating results?

    https://goo.gl/uzcozl

    and for Lab defences:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16CYIJsRJYlFUplcLiIVCkw0S6JPYLoXEXORSElPOvRI/edit#gid=0
    Great - thanks a lot!
  • NeilVW
    NeilVW Posts: 749
    Lab came close to losing another safe seat in Wrexham, in what ended up as a very tight 4-way marginal:

    Ruabon (Wrexham) Lab HOLD
    Lab 27.8%
    Ind 25.8%
    Ind 22.1%
    PC 24.3%
    Labour down 23.1% from 2012

    (via Election Data)
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