politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest French polls not quite as good for Macron as they were
Comments
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I don't believe it.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week0 -
If true - ORB and Opinium are not so far out.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week0 -
They say most of the world speaks more than one language.Ishmael_Z said:
The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".rkrkrk said:
Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:MTimT said:
In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.Theuniondivvie said:
c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.Disraeli said:
True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, becauseRobD said:
Probably the most common second language.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
Win-win-win!
1) less motivation when English is the global language
2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
What were you doing in Ethiopia?0 -
It's actually helpful to May. Stops complacency.SquareRoot said:
I don't believe it.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week0 -
Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?0
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Don't sound too hopefulTheScreamingEagles said:Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?
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Note, that YouGov is from a very grainy screengrab of tomorrow's paper0
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Underestimate Jezza at your perilSquareRoot said:
I don't believe it.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week0 -
0
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I like Canada, but it gets very cold in the winter...0
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That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week0 -
Going there next week to my sons for a fortnightFrancisUrquhart said:I like Canada, but it gets very cold in the winter...
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Lib Dem Remainer strategy in tatters, I'd guess.CarlottaVance said:Ben Walker @brtnelexben
Tory lead in latest YouGov down from 16pts to 13pts.0 -
No, she's not.TheScreamingEagles said:Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?
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Oh dearie me - Tories on this site.
All polls show Tory lead down. Sub samples show their Scottish gains going backwards - 7 from ORB and 3 from Opinium. Perhaps celebrations were premature!0 -
Tonight's YG too I think you will findMortimer said:
With their fantastic campaigning that includes Corbyn making a speech with his back to the camera....bigjohnowls said:
Real story Lab closing fastcalum said:The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!
Seriously; you're attributing all your hopes and dreams to one poll from a little known organisation; and one that still shows Labour being shafted...0 -
Anyone who hasn't been to Lalibela hasn't lived a full life.rkrkrk said:
They say most of the world speaks more than one language.Ishmael_Z said:
The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".rkrkrk said:
Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:MTimT said:
In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.Theuniondivvie said:
c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.Disraeli said:
True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, becauseRobD said:
Probably the most common second language.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
Win-win-win!
1) less motivation when English is the global language
2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
What were you doing in Ethiopia? 0 -
I'm going there a few weeks after the GE...I would like to come back to the UK...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Going there next week to my sons for a fortnightFrancisUrquhart said:I like Canada, but it gets very cold in the winter...
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Is this the day the polls turned?0
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Believe Victor BelieveSquareRoot said:
I don't believe it.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week0 -
Cape-to-Cairo trip (2007, about the last time you could safely do it).rkrkrk said:
They say most of the world speaks more than one language.Ishmael_Z said:
The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".rkrkrk said:
Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:MTimT said:
In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.Theuniondivvie said:
c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.Disraeli said:
True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, becauseRobD said:
Probably the most common second language.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
Win-win-win!
1) less motivation when English is the global language
2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
What were you doing in Ethiopia?0 -
Certainly be interesting if the expenses scandal knocks another hole in the lead. Come back Dave and George. Your party needs you!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?
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Of course. From the man who daily brought us EICIPMbigjohnowls said:
Tonight's YG too I think you will findMortimer said:
With their fantastic campaigning that includes Corbyn making a speech with his back to the camera....bigjohnowls said:
Real story Lab closing fastcalum said:The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!
Seriously; you're attributing all your hopes and dreams to one poll from a little known organisation; and one that still shows Labour being shafted...0 -
Suddenly the Tory strategy of vacating the airwaves for Labour doesn't look so bright.
I did suggest in the week that we had probably reached peak Tory. The enthusiasm for backing more and more unlikely Tory winners was starting to feel like stockmarket tips from taxi drivers.0 -
Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut0 -
0
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And with 'actual voters' mebbes..BenedictWhite said:
That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week0 -
Gordon Brown didn't have the guts to call an early election.tim80 said:
No, she's not.TheScreamingEagles said:Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?
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Ah I remember looking at that itinerary longingly... I'm sure it was a great trip!Ishmael_Z said:
Cape-to-Cairo trip (2007, about the last time you could safely do it).rkrkrk said:
They say most of the world speaks more than one language.Ishmael_Z said:
The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".rkrkrk said:
Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:MTimT said:
In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.Theuniondivvie said:
c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.Disraeli said:
True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, becauseRobD said:
Probably the most common second language.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
Win-win-win!
1) less motivation when English is the global language
2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
What were you doing in Ethiopia?0 -
Good to know.valleyboy said:
Yes,Philippa well thought of down here. Very pleasant and approachable and local. Hopefully she will do well given the short notice.MTimT said:Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.
What is etiquette on this? I want a stonking Tory win for the GE, but it would be nice for Pippa to win. Should I be cheering her on? What say you, PB Tories?0 -
George must be starting to wonder if he really should have stepped down.midwinter said:
Certainly be interesting if the expenses scandal knocks another hole in the lead. Come back Dave and George. Your party needs you!!!TheScreamingEagles said:Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?
It will be interesting to see if Dave or John Major join in the campaigning for the Tories this time round. Major has been quite active in the last few elections campaigns.0 -
My eyesight must be going!CarlottaVance said:Front page of ST:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-m72-eXoAAHzjH.jpg:large0 -
France still has them: I have often found myself having to use my rusty O-level French as it made me the best linguist in the room. Not too hard if all you want is a pain au chocolate of course.Ishmael_Z said:
The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".
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Once a spreadbet is cashed out there is no further potential liability/gain. ie, the result is irrelevant.rkrkrk said:
Still a long way to go so to have made 10x profit is a great result.Pong said:
eh?calum said:
Con 42% Lab 31%
???
Not good for the tories.
I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388
Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
But is that how it works with spread betting? I would have thought what you have done is locked in no losses, but will gain if it is between 378 and 388?
Those spread betting on this election are very brave IMO... There are a number of factors suggesting a big result... But very hard to know how those extra Tory votes will be distributed. Plus there's the uncertainty of a potential string of prosecutions and maybe even a targeted lib dem revival.
Yes spreadbetting is for the brave - potential winnings/losses can be huge.0 -
Any policy would help. Preferably not rehashed Mili ones though.BenedictWhite said:
That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week0 -
Going back a few years now but when I was travelling continental Europe the locals were always most insistent on practising their English rather than me practising my French or German.Ishmael_Z said:
The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".rkrkrk said:
Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:MTimT said:
In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.Theuniondivvie said:
c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.Disraeli said:
True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, becauseRobD said:
Probably the most common second language.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
Win-win-win!
1) less motivation when English is the global language
2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school0 -
It is English, isn't it? Just checking...Theuniondivvie said:
Commiserations on the clumsy non sequitur.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The most spoken language in Scotland is...?Theuniondivvie said:
c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.Disraeli said:
True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, becauseRobD said:
Probably the most common second language.Disraeli said:Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
Win-win-win!0 -
I wasn't planning on cashing out this year, but I am now.Pong said:
Once a spreadbet is cashed out there is no further potential liability/gain. ie, the result is irrelevant.rkrkrk said:
Still a long way to go so to have made 10x profit is a great result.Pong said:
eh?calum said:
Con 42% Lab 31%
???
Not good for the tories.
I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388
Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
But is that how it works with spread betting? I would have thought what you have done is locked in no losses, but will gain if it is between 378 and 388?
Those spread betting on this election are very brave IMO... There are a number of factors suggesting a big result... But very hard to know how those extra Tory votes will be distributed. Plus there's the uncertainty of a potential string of prosecutions and maybe even a targeted lib dem revival.
Yes spreadbetting is for the brave - potential winnings/losses can be huge.
We'll know if the 20% leads are accurate if Andy Street wins the West Midlands Mayor, if he doesn't, then they aren't/0 -
That's a keeperbigjohnowls said:
Real story Lab closing fastcalum said:The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!
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Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut0 -
I don't care about holiday home owners myself, some here will. For the people that have such property - it wasn't very long ago that Hollande brought in a special tax for British home owners in France. It didn't stick as it was deemed discriminatory.These sort of taxes will be brought back in, though, won't they. Something odd happens in Spain where the authorities make retrospective planning decisions to take holiday homes off their British owners. That is not going to stop. We are being told to guarantee mass immigration from the EU to preserve the rights of the British in the EU - it is an illusion. The holiday home owners should find somewhere else to invest before they lose their money, and the UK government shouldn't consider them above UK residents.
EU citizens in the UK should be treated in exactly the same way as non EU citizens.0 -
Has Andy Street stood as the 'Conservative' candidate or the 'John Lewis' candidate?TheScreamingEagles said:
I wasn't planning on cashing out this year, but I am now.Pong said:
Once a spreadbet is cashed out there is no further potential liability/gain. ie, the result is irrelevant.rkrkrk said:
Still a long way to go so to have made 10x profit is a great result.Pong said:
eh?calum said:
Con 42% Lab 31%
???
Not good for the tories.
I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388
Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
But is that how it works with spread betting? I would have thought what you have done is locked in no losses, but will gain if it is between 378 and 388?
Those spread betting on this election are very brave IMO... There are a number of factors suggesting a big result... But very hard to know how those extra Tory votes will be distributed. Plus there's the uncertainty of a potential string of prosecutions and maybe even a targeted lib dem revival.
Yes spreadbetting is for the brave - potential winnings/losses can be huge.
We'll know if the 20% leads are accurate if Andy Street wins the West Midlands Mayor, if he doesn't, then they aren't/0 -
You could say that Stephen Crabb is a hypocrite and pound shop Tim Farron who deserves to lose whilst the Tories win big.MTimT said:
Good to know.valleyboy said:
Yes,Philippa well thought of down here. Very pleasant and approachable and local. Hopefully she will do well given the short notice.MTimT said:Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.
What is etiquette on this? I want a stonking Tory win for the GE, but it would be nice for Pippa to win. Should I be cheering her on? What say you, PB Tories?0 -
Big John, you were saying???Casino_Royale said:0 -
Manifesto 8th May. Corbyn promise on NHS cutting through maybe. But really, does anyone think when the pen is poised it will cross for Corbynmidwinter said:
Any policy would help. Preferably not rehashed Mili ones though.BenedictWhite said:
That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week0 -
@greorgeeaton Tories' lead over Labour down from gargantuan to merely huge (17, 13 and 11 points in tonight's polls).0
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How would you describe a 10 point closing in the polls in a week??Floater said:
That's a keeperbigjohnowls said:
Real story Lab closing fastcalum said:The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!
Underestimate Jezza at your peril0 -
Outliers on both ends?bigjohnowls said:
How would you describe a 10 point closing in the polls in a week??Floater said:
That's a keeperbigjohnowls said:
Real story Lab closing fastcalum said:The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!
Underestimate Jezza at your peril 0 -
Heard it all before....lolSandyRentool said:
Isn't Preseli the number one target for the Bus Pass Elvis Party?MTimT said:Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.
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I know I wanted more polls but....
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It would be hilarious in a way if Corbyn did pull off an upset. Maybe not enough to get into No 10, but say, matched Miliband. All those moderate Labour supporters who have psyched themselves up for Armageddon and come to terms with rebuilding the Party from the roots up will face another five years of the indestructible Jezza.NeilVW said:
Pretty sure it's the latter, i.e. they don't believe Corbyn will come close to matching Ed's vote share. Have to say I agree with them: it fails the sniff test.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure if it's bastards or bollocks.AndyJS said:
They think the polls are overstating the Labour share?CarlottaVance said:
Matt Singh @MattSingh_
Labour source messages in response to tonight's polls with "B******S". Make of that what you will...0 -
The announcement of a sudden 'snap' election tends to boost support for the incumbent Government in initial polling - and is not surprising that we see that unwinding here. Something similar happened at the beginning of the February 1974 campaign.The big difference this time is that we are looking at a 7 week campaign - rather than the 3 week election campaign in1974.0
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Oh dear big jessie boy upset that he was exiled at 4 years old.Theuniondivvie said:
Your whining at some bloke you don't know on the internet who hasn't even addressed you, and you're talking about failures in life?saddened said:
Not really I was fortunate enough for my family to leave the weak members of the herd behind and move from Scotland to England when I was 4.RobD said:
Oh gawd... you'll rue the daysaddened said:
Think the word you're looking for is error.OUT said:
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.ydoethur said:
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.OUT said:
Like a meeting of the KKKmalcolmg said:
Kim May-Il speaks to party followersold_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
You obnoxious fool
I understand why the failures at life are bitter.
Ok.0 -
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness0 -
Let's surmise - Labour on 30 and the Lib Dems on 8.CarlottaVance said:@greorgeeaton Tories' lead over Labour down from gargantuan to merely huge (17, 13 and 11 points in tonight's polls).
The unelectable Corbyn is bulletproof and the Remain strategy is dead?
Tory majority extends to???0 -
Dropping the triple lock is good for the country. But politically it does smack a bit of "now where else to go"ism.nunu said:0 -
The Corbyn to no hopes and super safe seats strategy working a treat.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week0 -
Legible ST Front Page - no YouGov details:
http://68.media.tumblr.com/0540a5d687e0885854613d57f9cc38f9/tumblr_op6vg457zZ1u5f06vo1_1280.jpg
Wonder how 'May attacked by EU' will play with voters....
....I also doubt somehow Juncker 'pulled out a 2,000 page copy of the Canada EU treaty over dinner' - where was it, in his back pocket?0 -
Don't panic Mr MortimerMortimer said:
Of course. From the man who daily brought us EICIPMbigjohnowls said:
Tonight's YG too I think you will findMortimer said:
With their fantastic campaigning that includes Corbyn making a speech with his back to the camera....bigjohnowls said:
Real story Lab closing fastcalum said:The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!
Seriously; you're attributing all your hopes and dreams to one poll from a little known organisation; and one that still shows Labour being shafted...
for the 20th time this election TMICIPM!!!0 -
justin124 said:
The announcement of a sudden 'snap' election tends to boost support for the incumbent Government in initial polling - and is not surprising that we see that unwinding here. Something similar happened at the beginning of the February 1974 campaign.The big difference this time is that we are looking at a 7 week campaign - rather than the 3 week election campaign in1974.
If Jezza wins, then the queues at Heathrow to leave will be bigly.
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You knew she was crap, yet you still bet on her?TheScreamingEagles said:
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
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He wasn't up against Corbyn. It's hardly courageous. Although if it goes tits up as a Cameroon you'd need a heart of stone not to laugh....Casino_Royale said:
Gordon Brown didn't have the guts to call an early election.tim80 said:
No, she's not.TheScreamingEagles said:Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?
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Fitalaff clocks in , reads garbage from CCHQ instructions. Wonders why she was not invited to teh forest earlier to meet the Imperial Master.fitalass said:
Agreed. I still have a wee chuckle when I remember Angus Robertson's wee twitter panic when the Russian Naval fleet parked up in the Moray Firth during bad weather. Even after they left he was complaining about them fly tipping.HaroldO said:
Ok. I know the standard of UK politician in the UK is bad, but seriously?surbiton said:
Angus Robertson would indeed my choice to lead Scotland. They do have good and capable leaders.foxinsoxuk said:
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.Jason said:
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?foxinsoxuk said:
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.Black_Rook said:
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.old_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
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That's the LibDem in you talking - man up!TheScreamingEagles said:Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?
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Only five weeks leftFrancisUrquhart said:I know I wanted more polls but....
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The triple team of OUT, Divvie and MalkyGeemalcolmg said:
Oh dear big jessie boy upset that he was exiled at 4 years old.Theuniondivvie said:
Your whining at some bloke you don't know on the internet who hasn't even addressed you, and you're talking about failures in life?saddened said:
Not really I was fortunate enough for my family to leave the weak members of the herd behind and move from Scotland to England when I was 4.RobD said:
Oh gawd... you'll rue the daysaddened said:
Think the word you're looking for is error.OUT said:
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.ydoethur said:
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.OUT said:
Like a meeting of the KKKmalcolmg said:
Kim May-Il speaks to party followersold_labour said:OK, it's the Guardian, but ouch!
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
You obnoxious fool
I understand why the failures at life are bitter.
Ok. 0 -
It's in the story in the bottom left hand corner.CarlottaVance said:Legible ST Front Page - no YouGov details:
http://68.media.tumblr.com/0540a5d687e0885854613d57f9cc38f9/tumblr_op6vg457zZ1u5f06vo1_1280.jpg
Wonder how 'May attacked by EU' will play with voters....
....I also doubt somehow Juncker 'pulled out a 2,000 page copy of the Canada EU treaty over dinner' - where was it, in his back pocket?0 -
No, they had an earlier one too.Sunil_Prasannan said:OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?
That's the LibDem in you talking - man up!TheScreamingEagles said:Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?
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OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?0
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It will be interesting to see whether signs of Labour recovery are reflected in the Local Elections next Thursday. Andy Burnham should be feeling a bit more confident tonight.0
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So crap every poll tonight has her still increasing the Tory majorityTheScreamingEagles said:
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness0 -
I placed my faith in Sir Lynton, that bloke can polish most turds and of course of Corbyn's crapness.RobD said:
You knew she was crap, yet you still bet on her?TheScreamingEagles said:
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
0 -
Before I claim asylum in Canada?RobD said:0 -
Curiously there was a supportive editorial in the Sun - 'help the young'Alistair said:
Dropping the triple lock is good for the country. But politically it does smack a bit of "now where else to go"ism.nunu said:0 -
Spooky.. I replied to this post before you posted it...Sunil_Prasannan said:OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?
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I'm not panicking.bigjohnowls said:
Don't panic Mr MortimerMortimer said:
Of course. From the man who daily brought us EICIPMbigjohnowls said:
Tonight's YG too I think you will findMortimer said:
With their fantastic campaigning that includes Corbyn making a speech with his back to the camera....bigjohnowls said:
Real story Lab closing fastcalum said:The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!
Seriously; you're attributing all your hopes and dreams to one poll from a little known organisation; and one that still shows Labour being shafted...
for the 20th time this election TMICIPM!!!
Anecdata shows the Tories winning yuuuuge. Saturday nights on PB seem to be habitually anti-May.
Just wait for Monday afternoons....0 -
Yep after flipping his home, the evangelical Christian was returned with a bigger majority in 2010. I suspect the forgiving voters down here will also overlook the texting which caused his cabinet resignation last year.TheScreamingEagles said:
You could say that Stephen Crabb is a hypocrite and pound shop Tim Farron who deserves to lose whilst the Tories win big.MTimT said:
Good to know.valleyboy said:
Yes,Philippa well thought of down here. Very pleasant and approachable and local. Hopefully she will do well given the short notice.MTimT said:Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.
What is etiquette on this? I want a stonking Tory win for the GE, but it would be nice for Pippa to win. Should I be cheering her on? What say you, PB Tories?
When he was elected in 2005 I said he had a job for life, unless he was caught with his pants down. What do I know?0 -
Early days yet! Will be interesting what the locals do, especially how well the LDs perform given they've been flatlining in the polls.TheScreamingEagles said:
I placed my faith in Sir Lynton, that bloke can polish most turds and of course of Corbyn's crapness.RobD said:
You knew she was crap, yet you still bet on her?TheScreamingEagles said:
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness0 -
Jeremy Corbyn is Clement Attlee.
Discuss. 0 -
Nope that is last weeks which we all missed at the time .Sunil_Prasannan said:OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?
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Joshua has just battered the machine...But the machine still standing.0
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You mean his wife votes Tory?Pong said:Jeremy Corbyn is Clement Attlee.
Discuss.0 -
Well apparently Angela Rayner is Nye Bevan so anything's possible.Pong said:Jeremy Corbyn is Clement Attlee.
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'Am I pleased to see you or is this a trade treaty down my trousers?'CarlottaVance said:Legible ST Front Page - no YouGov details:
http://68.media.tumblr.com/0540a5d687e0885854613d57f9cc38f9/tumblr_op6vg457zZ1u5f06vo1_1280.jpg
Wonder how 'May attacked by EU' will play with voters....
....I also doubt somehow Juncker 'pulled out a 2,000 page copy of the Canada EU treaty over dinner' - where was it, in his back pocket?0 -
When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)
If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"
A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:
1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.0 -
Right-ho! Root for Pippa it is.valleyboy said:
Yep after flipping his home, the evangelical Christian was returned with a bigger majority in 2010. I suspect the forgiving voters down here will also overlook the texting which caused his cabinet resignation last year.TheScreamingEagles said:
You could say that Stephen Crabb is a hypocrite and pound shop Tim Farron who deserves to lose whilst the Tories win big.MTimT said:
Good to know.valleyboy said:
Yes,Philippa well thought of down here. Very pleasant and approachable and local. Hopefully she will do well given the short notice.MTimT said:Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.
What is etiquette on this? I want a stonking Tory win for the GE, but it would be nice for Pippa to win. Should I be cheering her on? What say you, PB Tories?
When he was elected in 2005 I said he had a job for life, unless he was caught with his pants down. What do I know?0 -
TMICIC£16000TheScreamingEagles said:
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness0 -
Fair comment, but maybe they were unwise bets? Last weekend was bonkers ( no idea if you bet on that, just saying), the froth's blown off. Progress either way now gets progressively harder. Can we really see Jezza busting Milliband's 31 significantly? As long May's UKIP converts firewall holds she's home. Expenses may cause feathers to fly but in the last ten days it's an iRA cheer leader, whose chancellor thinks Venezuela is great ( a country where bog roll is on ration) or May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness0 -
My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....Black_Rook said:When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)
If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"
A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:
1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.0 -
Theuniondivvie said:
And with 'actual voters' mebbes..BenedictWhite said:
That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week more forest meetings needed 0 -
What a tear up this is...Joshua looking very tired0
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I'm trying to work out if Juncker/Tusk want May to secure a larger majority.....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/theresa-may-rejects-brussels-hardline-brexit-demands/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
Joshua is done for here.0
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Clobbering the Lib Dems? Why is Corbyn in Shoreditch?Mortimer said:
My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....Black_Rook said:When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)
If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"
A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:
1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.
They are trying to monopolise the left.0 -
If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.
Ambitious......0 -
LOL - you think?TheScreamingEagles said:Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?
Tories haven't started on Jezza yet.0 -
Opinium has also consistently had Labour higher than other pollsters and may not have made as many adjustments since the last election as the likes of yougov and ICM, ORB may be similar. The final Opinium poll for the last general election had Labour on 35% and the Tories 34%, Labour were 5% too high and the Tories 3% too lowMortimer said:
My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....Black_Rook said:When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)
If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"
A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:
1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/final-poll-from-opinium-before-election.html0
