politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Caught in the backwash. The SNP subsides and the Conservatives
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Caught in the backwash. The SNP subsides and the Conservatives surge
In 2010, not a single seat in Scotland changed hands. Electoral politics north of the border has got a bit more dynamic since then. 2017 will not be as wild as 2015 but the polls suggest a fair amount of movement.
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First, glorious first!0
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A Scottish Tory Surge thread? Am I in heaven??0
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Third! Like SLAB......0
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The polls this month are suggesting a 10 to 12% swing from the Conservatives to the SNP. (shome mishtake shurely? - ed.)0
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Agree with Mr Meeks - in addition Mr Gravity has exerted his inevitable pull on Ms Sturgeon's previously stratospheric leadership ratings - and while still good - have suffered an over 50 point fall from their peak.0
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Maybe scotslass was the subeditor?CarlottaVance said:The polls this month are suggesting a 10 to 12% swing from the Conservatives to the SNP. (shome mishtake shurely? - ed.)
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Off topic, but I hope the BBC have learned from CNN's election coverage in 2016. We want more maps/numbers than talking heads.0
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"The Thirty Most Extreme Places in Britain
Part 1 : Demographic Extremes"
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part1.html
Part 2:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part2.html0 -
Nah.....not enough.....RobD said:
Maybe scotslass was the subeditor?CarlottaVance said:The polls this month are suggesting a 10 to 12% swing from the Conservatives to the SNP. (shome mishtake shurely? - ed.)
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgoen/status/8565898111713730570 -
I doubt they read the Scottish Daily Mail in Bute House anyway....
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/8580774482353520650 -
Fascinating. Thanks for linking them!AndyJS said:"The Thirty Most Extreme Places in Britain
Part 1 : Demographic Extremes"
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part1.html
Part 2:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part2.html0 -
Fascinating!AndyJS said:"The Thirty Most Extreme Places in Britain
Part 1 : Demographic Extremes"
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part1.html
Part 2:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part2.html
The most 'British' place is in Oldham - where 43% were born outside the UK.
The least 'British' place is in Dundee - where only 4% were born outside the UK, but it is strongly SNP with "education and economic indicators significantly below average"0 -
Morning all.
Cheers Mr Meeks, it’s a marvel that we are seeing such a thread on PB so soon after the 2015 wipe-out, despite the lack of plum betting opportunities it appears to have provided.0 -
I enjoy the fact that the Lib Dem heartland looks like a desolate wilderness...AndyJS said:"The Thirty Most Extreme Places in Britain
Part 1 : Demographic Extremes"
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part1.html
Part 2:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part2.html
(probably unfair of me on the beautiful scenery up there!!) 0 -
The wonderful Milo has announced a new news, book and social media venture.
“This isn’t some vanity nameplate on a personal blog. This is a fully tooled-up talent factory and management company dedicated to the destruction of political correctness and the progressive left. I will spend every waking moment of the rest of my life making the lives of journalists, professors, politicians, feminists, Black Lives Matter activists and other professional victims a living hell. Free speech is back — and it is fabulous.”
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10208971036928639&id=1097887344
Last night I was up until some daft hour watching Milo's speech at the University of New Mexico on YouTube and tonight I've watched the UC - Colorado Springs talk (again). Really recommended.
"MILO, Inc. will bring laughter and war to every corner of America in dozens of different formats. I will fight harder and look hotter than anyone else on the political right. And I will do more damage to the political left than anyone else in American culture.
"I'd like to say thank you to my haters for this great gift. Your furious tweets will heat my pool."
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The Sun lists 5 Tory targets in Scotland:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3441400/theresa-may-unveils-bold-plea-to-oust-scottish-national-party/
Expectations management? Diversionary tactics? What's going on......?0 -
Jeremy's week just got better:
JEREMY Corbyn and his top shadow ministers have been accused of being in bed with shamed tank chasing lawyers accused of hounding British troops.
A damning dossier was published that details the Labour boss and three of his top team’s close links to two under fire firms.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3441517/jeremy-corbyn-and-minister-emily-thornberry-accused-of-close-links-with-tank-chasing-lawyers/0 -
Are you giving him money?GeoffM said:The wonderful Milo has announced a new news, book and social media venture.
“This isn’t some vanity nameplate on a personal blog. This is a fully tooled-up talent factory and management company dedicated to the destruction of political correctness and the progressive left. I will spend every waking moment of the rest of my life making the lives of journalists, professors, politicians, feminists, Black Lives Matter activists and other professional victims a living hell. Free speech is back — and it is fabulous.”
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10208971036928639&id=1097887344
Last night I was up until some daft hour watching Milo's speech at the University of New Mexico on YouTube and tonight I've watched the UC - Colorado Springs talk (again). Really recommended.
"MILO, Inc. will bring laughter and war to every corner of America in dozens of different formats. I will fight harder and look hotter than anyone else on the political right. And I will do more damage to the political left than anyone else in American culture.
"I'd like to say thank you to my haters for this great gift. Your furious tweets will heat my pool."0 -
Would someone kindly turn down the deafening volume of the Scottish Tory klaxon as Mrs JackW is still enjoying her beauty sleep and my finances require considerable peace and quiet after receiving open wallet surgery from the good lady single handedly attempting to improve France's retail numbers !!0
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So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.0
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A damning dossier was published by whom?CarlottaVance said:Jeremy's week just got better:
JEREMY Corbyn and his top shadow ministers have been accused of being in bed with shamed tank chasing lawyers accused of hounding British troops.
A damning dossier was published that details the Labour boss and three of his top team’s close links to two under fire firms.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3441517/jeremy-corbyn-and-minister-emily-thornberry-accused-of-close-links-with-tank-chasing-lawyers/0 -
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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Morning all. Good piece as usual from @AlastairMeeks, shame there's no 50/1 bets that might come off in Scotland this time.
One query though, second paragraph, surely the 10-12% swing is from the SNP to the Conservatives, rather than the other way around?0 -
They're keeping Corbyn well away from anywhere marginal?SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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Labour are worried they no longer have any safe seats?SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
Or perhaps they need to keep Corbyn away from the marginals?
Or the local MP is a Blairite and they are trying to remove him/her?
I don't know I'm just offering possible explanations.
Edit - number three seems a possibility on Hillier's record. However, she must be an old acquaintance of Corbyn as she is a former mayor of Islington, so maybe it's just (2).0 -
Even Corbyn can't sink a 51% Majority?SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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Indeed, and conveniently only three stops on the tube from Jeremy’s front door.CarlottaVance said:
Even Corbyn can't sink a 51% Majority?SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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The Sun by the looks of it.....the Telegraph covered it over a year ago:DecrepitJohnL said:
A damning dossier was published by whom?CarlottaVance said:Jeremy's week just got better:
JEREMY Corbyn and his top shadow ministers have been accused of being in bed with shamed tank chasing lawyers accused of hounding British troops.
A damning dossier was published that details the Labour boss and three of his top team’s close links to two under fire firms.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3441517/jeremy-corbyn-and-minister-emily-thornberry-accused-of-close-links-with-tank-chasing-lawyers/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12085895/Jeremy-Corbyn-condemmned-over-links-to-lawyers-who-accused-British-troops-of-abuse.html0 -
That's a very bold statement!CarlottaVance said:
Even Corbyn can't sink a 51% Majority?SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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Maybe because he can cycle there?SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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Yes, great articles.CarlottaVance said:
Fascinating!AndyJS said:"The Thirty Most Extreme Places in Britain
Part 1 : Demographic Extremes"
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part1.html
Part 2:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part2.html
The most 'British' place is in Oldham - where 43% were born outside the UK.
The least 'British' place is in Dundee - where only 4% were born outside the UK, but it is strongly SNP with "education and economic indicators significantly below average"
Perhaps surprisingly to some, Muslims self describe as British more frequently than ethnic Britons (in part because many of those self descibe as one of the 4 nations). I find that encouraging.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/11/british-muslims-strong-sense-of-belonging-poll-homosexuality-sharia-law
On a microgeographic level the divide between Leave and Remain is even more striking. Brexit Britain is Jaywick, Remain Britain is Brighton.
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I wouldn't normally recommend anything by someone who thinks Sion Simon is a good candidate. However, take a look at this:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/28/the-tory-taste-of-death/
Not the article itself, which is the usual pompous and incoherent drivel (you can tell the author is a friend of Simon's) but the comments.
If (if!) those two commentators are in any way representative of Labour's core support, then we should expect Labour to forfeit large numbers of seats in the North of England and possibly do even worse than expected in Wales.
I still can't quite believe they'll dip to 15%, but everything looks incredibly ominous. And the campaign still isn't properly underway yet.0 -
En-route to the allotment?MarqueeMark said:
Maybe because he can cycle there?SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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It is perhaps also worth dragging up this leaflet from a long while back:
https://leftfootforward.org/2010/10/southern-discomfort-is-now-labours-universal-discomfort/
It is worth remembering that Labour's reputation has declined significantly since the disastrous days when 13% of people in the north thought they managed public services efficiently - a figure embarrassingly double that in the south.0 -
Postal vote returns for local elections in my part of Lancashire much slower than in 2013.0
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Interesting PS to the first comment:ydoethur said:I wouldn't normally recommend anything by someone who thinks Sion Simon is a good candidate. However, take a look at this:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/28/the-tory-taste-of-death/
Not the article itself, which is the usual pompous and incoherent drivel (you can tell the author is a friend of Simon's) but the comments.
If (if!) those two commentators are in any way representative of Labour's core support, then we should expect Labour to forfeit large numbers of seats in the North of England and possibly do even worse than expected in Wales.
I still can't quite believe they'll dip to 15%, but everything looks incredibly ominous. And the campaign still isn't properly underway yet.
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.0 -
Is Betfair ever going to settle the date-of-election bets? You'd think HMQs formal decision would be sufficient.0
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That's where they seem to want to send him. Less damage that way and he finds people that agree with him which cheers him up. Which is nice.SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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Just a brief reminder that all three pollsters who have provided Scotland only polls significantly overstated the SNP's lead over the Tories at Holyrood 2016.
You Gov overstated the gap by 4.5.
Survation overstated the gap by 5.5.
Panelbase overstated the gap by 7.5
It would be worth knowing how they have adjusted weightings and methods in the interim.
It is also worth noting that the Tories are level or leading with Survation and Panelbase 55+ demographic and Yougov's 50+.
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And the blame game begins - already!!
http://labourlist.org/2017/04/luke-akehurst-we-are-fighting-in-this-election-for-the-survival-of-the-labour-party/0 -
Yes, it seems a good plan to keep him in Islington. Many Labour MPs are much happier running as defacto Independent Labour.DavidL said:
That's where they seem to want to send him. Less damage that way and he finds people that agree with him which cheers him up. Which is nice.SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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The first paragraph of that could have been writtten by @TheScreamingEagles. The comments underneath are brutal, I think the calling of the election has given Andy Street a huge boost in the West Midlands.ydoethur said:I wouldn't normally recommend anything by someone who thinks Sion Simon is a good candidate. However, take a look at this:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/28/the-tory-taste-of-death/
Not the article itself, which is the usual pompous and incoherent drivel (you can tell the author is a friend of Simon's) but the comments.
If (if!) those two commentators are in any way representative of Labour's core support, then we should expect Labour to forfeit large numbers of seats in the North of England and possibly do even worse than expected in Wales.
I still can't quite believe they'll dip to 15%, but everything looks incredibly ominous. And the campaign still isn't properly underway yet.0 -
That would be a good use of his Bank Holiday weekend for all concerned.....CarlottaVance said:
En-route to the allotment?MarqueeMark said:
Maybe because he can cycle there?SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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Och aye tha noo, my fellow North Britons.
Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. I've backed, with small sums, the Conservatives to make gains here and there, but avoided the 12 seat bet. I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP were still on 50+ (I'd be surprised if they hit low 40s), but we'll see.
As we shall also see how the Ferraris perform in P3 and whether Mercedes can narrow the seeming gap.0 -
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
There seem to be big risks in that approach to me. If we leave, and it makes little or no difference to our economy despite the threats, it seems likely other nations will quickly follow. If we leave and it causes a financial crash, the contagion could bring down Deutsche Bank and all bets on the euro's survival are off.
They are gambling that there will be a punishment severe enough to discourage others, yet not bad enough to destroy them. A very narrow window. But there, they seem so blinded by their obsessive love for their creation and hatred of those 52% who rejected their project that it hasn't occurred to them that they are risking everything to make a wholly unnecessary point.0 -
It would be a good use of the next six weeks to be honest. Outside his own little bit of North London, Labour MPs don't want him near their constituencies.MarqueeMark said:
That would be a good use of his Bank Holiday weekend for all concerned.....CarlottaVance said:
En-route to the allotment?MarqueeMark said:
Maybe because he can cycle there?SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
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If May walks away from negotiations, we'll still be in the EU until 2019 and will be watching the clock waiting to go over the cliff edge.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
At some point she (or a new Prime Minister) will have to go back to the table.0 -
According to Electoral Calculus Pete Wishart is going to hold on in Perth and North Perthshire by 0.3%. I did some canvassing in that seat in 2015. We had quite a strong local candidate, Alex Stewart, who was a popular and hard working councillor in Perth. He is now an MSP. The Tory vote went up but not by nearly as much as Wishart's did and he got just over 50% of the vote.
I would really like the Tories to be very close or even take this seat and I will be spending time there again myself but it seems remarkable to me that it is thought to be in play at all. I have met Ian Duncan, the MEP who is the candidate this time around. He is very bright, articulate and personable but frankly nowhere nearly as well known in the Constituency as Alex was.
Alastair may be right in that this may be another wave election where the quality of the candidate doesn't really matter that much. I am not sure in a General Election, as opposed to a bye election, how important the candidate is anyway these days. Political campaigning seems to be ever more a series of photo-ops by the leaders and I really wonder how much good leaflets etc at local level do. That said, even though I find him irritating Wishart seems pretty popular and he is a lot more high profile than most of the 56 the SNP originally sent to Westminster.
If I was betting on this seat it would be on the SNP. But I couldn't bring myself to do that.0 -
I think this is spot on. The EU are so blinded by their supposed greatness that they can't see the huge risk they are taking - it may turn out that the single market is not so massively valuable after all. If the UK leaves on WTO terms and does not suffer badly, it will be carte blanche for anyone else to leave. Tactically, they should have treated the UK as a special case and quietly and quickly settled it and moved on.
I think that the EU just can't contemplate that the UK will leave without a deal because they are so insular in their thinking, so they assume that we will take a crap deal at the last minute and that will be bad enough to scare off other countries from leaving.
I strongly suspect that the UK public will support the Government in rejecting a deal that is obviously unequal regardless of the supposed consequences. Then the EU are in a huge gamble if it turns out that we do not crash after all.
So the question is whether May wants a big majority to execute a no-deal exit, or to cave into a bad deal. I don't see a reasonable deal as even a remote possibility.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
There seem to be big risks in that approach to me. If we leave, and it makes little or no difference to our economy despite the threats, it seems likely other nations will quickly follow. If we leave and it causes a financial crash, the contagion could bring down Deutsche Bank and all bets on the euro's survival are off.
They are gambling that there will be a punishment severe enough to discourage others, yet not bad enough to destroy them. A very narrow window. But there, they seem so blinded by their obsessive love for their creation and hatred of those 52% who rejected their project that it hasn't occurred to them that they are risking everything to make a wholly unnecessary point.0 -
Off-topic:
My FB feed is getting entertaining at the moment. A fair few of my friends are Labour supporters, and are in no way hesitant to say so.
One meme that's coming up is the BBC being biased to the Conservatives (i.e. the old refrain of "they're not reporting the news how I'd like it to be reported.")
This includes the following: "The BBC is so biased, the Tories should be forced to declare our TV licences as election expenses."
LOL. Labour are going to get crushed.0 -
Aberdeen makes sense, Aberdeen South and WAK are both top targets.0
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Interesting to see Madasafish, formerly of this parish, commenting there.Sandpit said:
The first paragraph of that could have been writtten by @TheScreamingEagles. The comments underneath are brutal, I think the calling of the election has given Andy Street a huge boost in the West Midlands.ydoethur said:I wouldn't normally recommend anything by someone who thinks Sion Simon is a good candidate. However, take a look at this:
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/28/the-tory-taste-of-death/
Not the article itself, which is the usual pompous and incoherent drivel (you can tell the author is a friend of Simon's) but the comments.
If (if!) those two commentators are in any way representative of Labour's core support, then we should expect Labour to forfeit large numbers of seats in the North of England and possibly do even worse than expected in Wales.
I still can't quite believe they'll dip to 15%, but everything looks incredibly ominous. And the campaign still isn't properly underway yet.0 -
That will be difficult if the EU itself refuses to negotiate, which is what I am expecting. There's just too big a gap between what the government here can put forward and what they would be willing to even discuss.williamglenn said:
If May walks away from negotiations, we'll still be in the EU until 2019 and will be watching the clock waiting to go over the cliff edge.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
At some point she (or a new Prime Minister) will have to go back to the table.0 -
"We have to fight for our MPs because they are the talent pool from which a future Labour Party capable of winning and governing will need to emerge."
This from Luke Akehurst's article unwittingly neatly sets out Labour's problem!0 -
The next time Europe's second biggest economy, nuclear power and security council member wants to walk out then 'Brexit' will be irrelevant - because that will be France and the whole game will be up. Much as the French learned 'pour encourager les autres' from the British, I think our EU friends are drawing the wrong lesson. What they appear to be proposing sounds awfully like the forbidden 'cherry picking'.....which only is forbidden if we want to do it.....I do hope the Tory manifesto has half a dozen Fisheries patrol vessels in it to concentrate continental minds.....ydoethur said:
They are gambling that there will be a punishment severe enough to discourage others, yet not bad enough to destroy them. A very narrow window. But there, they seem so blinded by their obsessive love for their creation and hatred of those 52% who rejected their project that it hasn't occurred to them that they are risking everything to make a wholly unnecessary point.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.0 -
Sandpit said:
It would be a good use of the next six weeks to be honest. Outside his own little bit of North London, Labour MPs don't want him near their constituencies.MarqueeMark said:
That would be a good use of his Bank Holiday weekend for all concerned.....CarlottaVance said:
En-route to the allotment?MarqueeMark said:
Maybe because he can cycle there?SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
I loved the snarky Labour HQ Press Release yesterday saying 'At the Labour Party HQ Jeremy said Theresa May should be getting out meeting people..."0 -
May's political bubble would burst very quickly if she walked away with 18 months still on the clock and nothing agreed. All indications are that the government does not have the capacity to prepare for such an outcome.ydoethur said:
That will be difficult if the EU itself refuses to negotiate, which is what I am expecting. There's just too big a gap between what the government here can put forward and what they would be willing to even discuss.williamglenn said:
If May walks away from negotiations, we'll still be in the EU until 2019 and will be watching the clock waiting to go over the cliff edge.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
At some point she (or a new Prime Minister) will have to go back to the table.0 -
I don't particularly want another Brexit thread, but the EU is right that Brexit is punishment enough. They are simply agreeing that Brexit means Brexit, and accepting of the referendum result.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
There seem to be big risks in that approach to me. If we leave, and it makes little or no difference to our economy despite the threats, it seems likely other nations will quickly follow. If we leave and it causes a financial crash, the contagion could bring down Deutsche Bank and all bets on the euro's survival are off.
They are gambling that there will be a punishment severe enough to discourage others, yet not bad enough to destroy them. A very narrow window. But there, they seem so blinded by their obsessive love for their creation and hatred of those 52% who rejected their project that it hasn't occurred to them that they are risking everything to make a wholly unnecessary point.
Britain will survive, but it will change the country, quite possibly break it up. Britain will look more like Jaywick and less like Brighton, but that is a feature not a bug.
0 -
That is slightly extraordinary. Hackney and Shoreditch is indeed very Labour, and probably (from feel) pretty Corbynite already.SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
But maybe that's just Jeremy Corbyn's style - Visit an area where everyone agrees with you, and assure them that they're quite right, and everybody goes home feeling warm. Rather than deal with the awful people who aren't yet as enlightened as you.0 -
Which is why she needs a safe majority before it happens.williamglenn said:
May's political bubble would burst very quickly if she walked away with 18 months still on the clock and nothing agreed. All indications are that the government does not have the capacity to prepare for such an outcome.ydoethur said:
That will be difficult if the EU itself refuses to negotiate, which is what I am expecting. There's just too big a gap between what the government here can put forward and what they would be willing to even discuss.williamglenn said:
If May walks away from negotiations, we'll still be in the EU until 2019 and will be watching the clock waiting to go over the cliff edge.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
At some point she (or a new Prime Minister) will have to go back to the table.0 -
Swings and roundabouts. I don;t want to be more like Jaywick, but less like Brighton is fine by me. There's only so much vegan carrot cake a man can eat.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't particularly want another Brexit thread, but the EU is right that Brexit is punishment enough. They are simply agreeing that Brexit means Brexit, and accepting of the referendum result.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
There seem to be big risks in that approach to me. If we leave, and it makes little or no difference to our economy despite the threats, it seems likely other nations will quickly follow. If we leave and it causes a financial crash, the contagion could bring down Deutsche Bank and all bets on the euro's survival are off.
They are gambling that there will be a punishment severe enough to discourage others, yet not bad enough to destroy them. A very narrow window. But there, they seem so blinded by their obsessive love for their creation and hatred of those 52% who rejected their project that it hasn't occurred to them that they are risking everything to make a wholly unnecessary point.
Britain will survive, but it will change the country, quite possibly break it up. Britain will look more like Jaywick and less like Brighton, but that is a feature not a bug.0 -
Mr. Au, I broadly agree, except that I think it's possible May will feel political pressure for a 'win' (in this instance, that being a deal). Hopefully we won't find out, as the alternatives there are a bad deal and no deal.0
-
: are u always this negative?williamglenn said:
May's political bubble would burst very quickly if she walked away with 18 months still on the clock and nothing agreed. All indications are that the government does not have the capacity to prepare for such an outcome.ydoethur said:
That will be difficult if the EU itself refuses to negotiate, which is what I am expecting. There's just too big a gap between what the government here can put forward and what they would be willing to even discuss.williamglenn said:
If May walks away from negotiations, we'll still be in the EU until 2019 and will be watching the clock waiting to go over the cliff edge.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
At some point she (or a new Prime Minister) will have to go back to the table.0 -
If the Tories don't take WAK it will have been an extremely disappointing night for them in Scotland once again. I think it is pretty nailed on.Pulpstar said:Aberdeen makes sense, Aberdeen South and WAK are both top targets.
Aberdeen is a very unhappy place these days on the back of the oil crash. The difference in Union Street is palpable with a good number of the best restaurants (and Jamie Oliver) gone. 3 years ago when I was staying there overnight for a Court case getting change out of £150 a night was difficult. Recently I got an aparthotel in the centre for £80. Speaking to locals the perception seems to be that the SNP are far more interested in the central belt than them (this is a recurring theme throughout the north east) and have done too little to help. It would not surprise me if Aberdeen South is in play.0 -
The combination of the oil price crash and the fisheries in the NE of Scotland is the best place to look for anti SNP swings.DavidL said:
If the Tories don't take WAK it will have been an extremely disappointing night for them in Scotland once again. I think it is pretty nailed on.Pulpstar said:Aberdeen makes sense, Aberdeen South and WAK are both top targets.
Aberdeen is a very unhappy place these days on the back of the oil crash. The difference in Union Street is palpable with a good number of the best restaurants (and Jamie Oliver) gone. 3 years ago when I was staying there overnight for a Court case getting change out of £150 a night was difficult. Recently I got an aparthotel in the centre for £80. Speaking to locals the perception seems to be that the SNP are far more interested in the central belt than them (this is a recurring theme throughout the north east) and have done too little to help. It would not surprise me if Aberdeen South is in play.
I am not at all sure there is much value left though, and that seems to be Mr Meeks conclusion too.0 -
It is entirely consistent with the Labour Party's rumoured campaign strategy: send Jeremy either to Conservative-held marginals (which nobody outside of his faction thinks are likely to be taken) or to Labour seats with such enormous majorities that not even he can contrive to lose them. He's to be kept, insofar as possible, away from Labour's vulnerable defences. Which, in this election, probably means at least the top 75 most endangered Labour-held marginals, possibly more.Fat_Steve said:
That is slightly extraordinary. Hackney and Shoreditch is indeed very Labour, and probably (from feel) pretty Corbynite already.SimonStClare said:
Why? Hackney South and Shoreditch constituency most be one of Labour’s safest seats.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
But maybe that's just Jeremy Corbyn's style - Visit an area where everyone agrees with you, and assure them that they're quite right, and everybody goes home feeling warm. Rather than deal with the awful people who aren't yet as enlightened as you.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, think their leader might be able to help them win Aberdeen S and AW&K from the SNP, which is not inconceivable. Such are the times in which we live.0 -
Hipster chic is all about "authenticity", hence the adoption of artisan bread, craft beer, tattoos, lumberjack shirts etc. Jezza actually fits this well, but really because he politically dates from a Seventies counter-culture hybridisation of "The Good Life" and "Citizen Smith". I am not so sure that he would be friends with Margot Leadbetter though.ToryJim said:
He hasn't got the right type of beard for shoreditch.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
0 -
We'll have to wait on the results. Beware anyone at the counts reporting "glum looking SNP faces" - how could they possibly tell?Morris_Dancer said:
Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. I've backed, with small sums, the Conservatives to make gains here and there, but avoided the 12 seat bet. I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP were still on 50+ (I'd be surprised if they hit low 40s), but we'll see.
(Getting my cheap shot at malc in early for the day....)0 -
Are Europe prepared?williamglenn said:
May's political bubble would burst very quickly if she walked away with 18 months still on the clock and nothing agreed. All indications are that the government does not have the capacity to prepare for such an outcome.ydoethur said:
That will be difficult if the EU itself refuses to negotiate, which is what I am expecting. There's just too big a gap between what the government here can put forward and what they would be willing to even discuss.williamglenn said:
If May walks away from negotiations, we'll still be in the EU until 2019 and will be watching the clock waiting to go over the cliff edge.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
At some point she (or a new Prime Minister) will have to go back to the table.
My guess, using the eurozone and the migrant crisis as precedents, is probably no.
One of the underpinning characteristics of any european related issue seems to be that they have almost always failed to put the correct foundations in place for anything.
This will be the same.
They never imagined anyone walking away. They will misread and mishandle it, damaging themselves in the process.0 -
Yes, very possibly true. But you're missing my point. I don't think she will have the option of walking away because I think from early indications the EU are getting ready to storm out first. Which as I have set out above is a position reckless to the point of insanity, so we probably shouldn't be surprised that Verhfostadt and Juncker are enthusiastically preparing for it.williamglenn said:
May's political bubble would burst very quickly if she walked away with 18 months still on the clock and nothing agreed. All indications are that the government does not have the capacity to prepare for such an outcome.ydoethur said:
That will be difficult if the EU itself refuses to negotiate, which is what I am expecting. There's just too big a gap between what the government here can put forward and what they would be willing to even discuss.williamglenn said:
If May walks away from negotiations, we'll still be in the EU until 2019 and will be watching the clock waiting to go over the cliff edge.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
At some point she (or a new Prime Minister) will have to go back to the table.0 -
I am quite partial to carrot cake, but Leavers would be well advised to adopt the lifestyle of Remainers in terms of diet and exercise. Vegetarianism and hipster bikes keep you healthy.Fat_Steve said:
Swings and roundabouts. I don;t want to be more like Jaywick, but less like Brighton is fine by me. There's only so much vegan carrot cake a man can eat.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't particularly want another Brexit thread, but the EU is right that Brexit is punishment enough. They are simply agreeing that Brexit means Brexit, and accepting of the referendum result.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
There seem to be big risks in that approach to me. If we leave, and it makes little or no difference to our economy despite the threats, it seems likely other nations will quickly follow. If we leave and it causes a financial crash, the contagion could bring down Deutsche Bank and all bets on the euro's survival are off.
They are gambling that there will be a punishment severe enough to discourage others, yet not bad enough to destroy them. A very narrow window. But there, they seem so blinded by their obsessive love for their creation and hatred of those 52% who rejected their project that it hasn't occurred to them that they are risking everything to make a wholly unnecessary point.
Britain will survive, but it will change the country, quite possibly break it up. Britain will look more like Jaywick and less like Brighton, but that is a feature not a bug.0 -
The only problem with that logic is that at my school the teachers (who have virtually no time to exercise) were solidly Remain, and the most prominent Leaver was the superfit and rigorous dietician that is the football coach!foxinsoxuk said:
I am quite partial to carrot cake, but Leavers would be well advised to adopt the lifestyle of Remainers in terms of diet and exercise. Vegetarianism and hipster bikes keep you healthy.Fat_Steve said:
Swings and roundabouts. I don;t want to be more like Jaywick, but less like Brighton is fine by me. There's only so much vegan carrot cake a man can eat.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't particularly want another Brexit thread, but the EU is right that Brexit is punishment enough. They are simply agreeing that Brexit means Brexit, and accepting of the referendum result.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
There seem to be big risks in that approach to me. If we leave, and it makes little or no difference to our economy despite the threats, it seems likely other nations will quickly follow. If we leave and it causes a financial crash, the contagion could bring down Deutsche Bank and all bets on the euro's survival are off.
They are gambling that there will be a punishment severe enough to discourage others, yet not bad enough to destroy them. A very narrow window. But there, they seem so blinded by their obsessive love for their creation and hatred of those 52% who rejected their project that it hasn't occurred to them that they are risking everything to make a wholly unnecessary point.
Britain will survive, but it will change the country, quite possibly break it up. Britain will look more like Jaywick and less like Brighton, but that is a feature not a bug.0 -
I agree. Such value as there is is probably identifying where the Tories are likely to fall short (like Perth) and betting accordingly, a bit like Labour seats in England.foxinsoxuk said:
The combination of the oil price crash and the fisheries in the NE of Scotland is the best place to look for anti SNP swings.DavidL said:
If the Tories don't take WAK it will have been an extremely disappointing night for them in Scotland once again. I think it is pretty nailed on.Pulpstar said:Aberdeen makes sense, Aberdeen South and WAK are both top targets.
Aberdeen is a very unhappy place these days on the back of the oil crash. The difference in Union Street is palpable with a good number of the best restaurants (and Jamie Oliver) gone. 3 years ago when I was staying there overnight for a Court case getting change out of £150 a night was difficult. Recently I got an aparthotel in the centre for £80. Speaking to locals the perception seems to be that the SNP are far more interested in the central belt than them (this is a recurring theme throughout the north east) and have done too little to help. It would not surprise me if Aberdeen South is in play.
I am not at all sure there is much value left though, and that seems to be Mr Meeks conclusion too.0 -
Hooray, thank you for steering us back to topic!DavidL said:
I agree. Such value as there is is probably identifying where the Tories are likely to fall short (like Perth) and betting accordingly, a bit like Labour seats in England.foxinsoxuk said:
The combination of the oil price crash and the fisheries in the NE of Scotland is the best place to look for anti SNP swings.DavidL said:
If the Tories don't take WAK it will have been an extremely disappointing night for them in Scotland once again. I think it is pretty nailed on.Pulpstar said:Aberdeen makes sense, Aberdeen South and WAK are both top targets.
Aberdeen is a very unhappy place these days on the back of the oil crash. The difference in Union Street is palpable with a good number of the best restaurants (and Jamie Oliver) gone. 3 years ago when I was staying there overnight for a Court case getting change out of £150 a night was difficult. Recently I got an aparthotel in the centre for £80. Speaking to locals the perception seems to be that the SNP are far more interested in the central belt than them (this is a recurring theme throughout the north east) and have done too little to help. It would not surprise me if Aberdeen South is in play.
I am not at all sure there is much value left though, and that seems to be Mr Meeks conclusion too.
Out of curiosity, why do you think the Tories will fall short in Perth?0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, I thought hipster chic was all about being a pretentious twit.
But there we are. I'm just a grizzled morris dancer from Yorkshire who finds the concept of a shop selling sticks, within walking distance of a park, bloody ridiculous.0 -
*IF* (and it's still a big if, of course,) the independence drive goes off the boil and we get more of a return to politics as usual in Scotland, then one possible end point is that the electoral map goes all the way back to the 70s or 80s, only with the SNP taking the place of Labour. That being the case, the SNP would remain the largest party, but with its strength predominantly concentrated in the central belt. The Tories and Lib Dems would carve up the rest of the country between them, with the SNP being driven back into 3 or 4 redoubts, perhaps fewer. You can see them being left with nothing north of Fife, save for Dundee. But that remains to be seen, of course.DavidL said:
If the Tories don't take WAK it will have been an extremely disappointing night for them in Scotland once again. I think it is pretty nailed on.Pulpstar said:Aberdeen makes sense, Aberdeen South and WAK are both top targets.
Aberdeen is a very unhappy place these days on the back of the oil crash. The difference in Union Street is palpable with a good number of the best restaurants (and Jamie Oliver) gone. 3 years ago when I was staying there overnight for a Court case getting change out of £150 a night was difficult. Recently I got an aparthotel in the centre for £80. Speaking to locals the perception seems to be that the SNP are far more interested in the central belt than them (this is a recurring theme throughout the north east) and have done too little to help. It would not surprise me if Aberdeen South is in play.0 -
Well I had a craft beer not long ago, not a thousand miles from Shoreditch, and something in it was still alive. I was ropey for 3 days.foxinsoxuk said:
I am quite partial to carrot cake, but Leavers would be well advised to adopt the lifestyle of Remainers in terms of diet and exercise. Vegetarianism and hipster bikes keep you healthy.Fat_Steve said:
Swings and roundabouts. I don;t want to be more like Jaywick, but less like Brighton is fine by me. There's only so much vegan carrot cake a man can eat.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't particularly want another Brexit thread, but the EU is right that Brexit is punishment enough. They are simply agreeing that Brexit means Brexit, and accepting of the referendum result.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
There seem to be big risks in that approach to me. If we leave, and it makes little or no difference to our economy despite the threats, it seems likely other nations will quickly follow. If we leave and it causes a financial crash, the contagion could bring down Deutsche Bank and all bets on the euro's survival are off.
They are gambling that there will be a punishment severe enough to discourage others, yet not bad enough to destroy them. A very narrow window. But there, they seem so blinded by their obsessive love for their creation and hatred of those 52% who rejected their project that it hasn't occurred to them that they are risking everything to make a wholly unnecessary point.
Britain will survive, but it will change the country, quite possibly break it up. Britain will look more like Jaywick and less like Brighton, but that is a feature not a bug.
You can overdo the authenticity.0 -
Ingleborough hike today, not a stick insight. Just Yorkshire at its best and lots of exercise.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, I thought hipster chic was all about being a pretentious twit.
But there we are. I'm just a grizzled morris dancer from Yorkshire who finds the concept of a shop selling sticks, within walking distance of a park, bloody ridiculous.0 -
Can somebody explain something to me? If free movement of labour is such a massive benefit. Why doesn't the EU want to punish us by removing it from us?0
-
As a Leaver, I run (surely a far more paleo conservative activity than cycling) and am on a low carb high fat diet which is much better for me than all those carbohydrates, and suits my iconoclastic nature. And I get to eat bacon and egg for breakfast.foxinsoxuk said:
Hipster chic is all about "authenticity", hence the adoption of artisan bread, craft beer, tattoos, lumberjack shirts etc. Jezza actually fits this well, but really because he politically dates from a Seventies counter-culture hybridisation of "The Good Life" and "Citizen Smith". I am not so sure that he would be friends with Margot Leadbetter though.ToryJim said:
He hasn't got the right type of beard for shoreditch.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
0 -
There is a lot of pretension in hipster fashion, but surely there is always pretension in fashion. A tattood, bearded webdesigner in lumberjack shirt is dressing like a mythological worker. Equally, working class fashion is pretension. Sportswear is hardly ever worn by any one other than overweight couch potatoes!Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, I thought hipster chic was all about being a pretentious twit.
But there we are. I'm just a grizzled morris dancer from Yorkshire who finds the concept of a shop selling sticks, within walking distance of a park, bloody ridiculous.0 -
Mr Dancer, I went to Shoreditch recently and you are broadly correct. It's depressing.0
-
The 'exit bill' is one obvious issue - but I'm more concerned by this 'EU nationals benefitting from the ECJ and EU regulations indefinitely' - they can't seriously think we'll agree to two legal systems running in parallel and two classes of citizens can they?ydoethur said:
Yes, very possibly true. But you're missing my point. I don't think she will have the option of walking away because I think from early indications the EU are getting ready to storm out first.williamglenn said:
May's political bubble would burst very quickly if she walked away with 18 months still on the clock and nothing agreed. All indications are that the government does not have the capacity to prepare for such an outcome.ydoethur said:
That will be difficult if the EU itself refuses to negotiate, which is what I am expecting. There's just too big a gap between what the government here can put forward and what they would be willing to even discuss.williamglenn said:
If May walks away from negotiations, we'll still be in the EU until 2019 and will be watching the clock waiting to go over the cliff edge.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
At some point she (or a new Prime Minister) will have to go back to the table.
0 -
How much of it did you drink? Beer is supposed to be alive, it's called yeast.Fat_Steve said:
Well I had a craft beer not long ago, not a thousand miles from Shoreditch, and something in it was still alive. I was ropey for 3 days.foxinsoxuk said:
I am quite partial to carrot cake, but Leavers would be well advised to adopt the lifestyle of Remainers in terms of diet and exercise. Vegetarianism and hipster bikes keep you healthy.Fat_Steve said:
Swings and roundabouts. I don;t want to be more like Jaywick, but less like Brighton is fine by me. There's only so much vegan carrot cake a man can eat.foxinsoxuk said:
I don't particularly want another Brexit thread, but the EU is right that Brexit is punishment enough. They are simply agreeing that Brexit means Brexit, and accepting of the referendum result.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
There seem to be big risks in that approach to me. If we leave, and it makes little or no difference to our economy despite the threats, it seems likely other nations will quickly follow. If we leave and it causes a financial crash, the contagion could bring down Deutsche Bank and all bets on the euro's survival are off.
They are gambling that there will be a punishment severe enough to discourage others, yet not bad enough to destroy them. A very narrow window. But there, they seem so blinded by their obsessive love for their creation and hatred of those 52% who rejected their project that it hasn't occurred to them that they are risking everything to make a wholly unnecessary point.
Britain will survive, but it will change the country, quite possibly break it up. Britain will look more like Jaywick and less like Brighton, but that is a feature not a bug.
You can overdo the authenticity.0 -
Commander Shepard, must admit I've not been there, but did enjoy visiting Ilkley Moor as a child (and occasionally more recently). Splendid place to go for a walk.0
-
WilliamGlenn has competition in the optimism stakes:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/8582161264420659210 -
Mr. Jim, one hopes you weren't contaminated by hipsterism. Symptoms include:
over-groomed facial hair
the sudden desire to serve food on pieces of slate or driftwood
the confusion of pretentiousness for authenticity.
Mr. Saddened, it's like the Bible Belt's view of sex. It's dirty and horrid and sinful and will damned you forever, and you should save it for your wife.
Edited extra bit: damn*, obviously.0 -
See my comments at 7.13. It is a constituency I know fairly well.ydoethur said:
Hooray, thank you for steering us back to topic!DavidL said:
I agree. Such value as there is is probably identifying where the Tories are likely to fall short (like Perth) and betting accordingly, a bit like Labour seats in England.foxinsoxuk said:
The combination of the oil price crash and the fisheries in the NE of Scotland is the best place to look for anti SNP swings.DavidL said:
If the Tories don't take WAK it will have been an extremely disappointing night for them in Scotland once again. I think it is pretty nailed on.Pulpstar said:Aberdeen makes sense, Aberdeen South and WAK are both top targets.
Aberdeen is a very unhappy place these days on the back of the oil crash. The difference in Union Street is palpable with a good number of the best restaurants (and Jamie Oliver) gone. 3 years ago when I was staying there overnight for a Court case getting change out of £150 a night was difficult. Recently I got an aparthotel in the centre for £80. Speaking to locals the perception seems to be that the SNP are far more interested in the central belt than them (this is a recurring theme throughout the north east) and have done too little to help. It would not surprise me if Aberdeen South is in play.
I am not at all sure there is much value left though, and that seems to be Mr Meeks conclusion too.
Out of curiosity, why do you think the Tories will fall short in Perth?0 -
There are of course exceptions, but healthy behaviour strongly correlates with social class and voting in Britain, and the US too.JohnLilburne said:
As a Leaver, I run (surely a far more paleo conservative activity than cycling) and am on a low carb high fat diet which is much better for me than all those carbohydrates, and suits my iconoclastic nature. And I get to eat bacon and egg for breakfast.foxinsoxuk said:
Hipster chic is all about "authenticity", hence the adoption of artisan bread, craft beer, tattoos, lumberjack shirts etc. Jezza actually fits this well, but really because he politically dates from a Seventies counter-culture hybridisation of "The Good Life" and "Citizen Smith". I am not so sure that he would be friends with Margot Leadbetter though.ToryJim said:
He hasn't got the right type of beard for shoreditch.tlg86 said:So today the PM is going to Aberdeen and Jeremy Corbyn is going to Shoreditch.
Those interesting electoral maps earlier show a striking correlation between poor self reported health and voting Leave. It was why the £350 million per week for the NHS slogan was so effective, and why the Tories will need to honour it.
As an aside, I am musing over my disgraced colleague convicted yesterday and its implications. He seems to have been another Harold Shipman, though mercifully not a killer.0 -
The Tories just cannot help from cheating
Ruth Davidson caught breaking parliamentary rules to promote the Tory party
http://www.thenational.scot/news/15253772.Ruth_Davidson_caught_breaking_parliamentary_rules_to_promote_the_Tory_party/0 -
I don't think Labour will lose every seat.CarlottaVance said:WilliamGlenn has competition in the optimism stakes:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/8582161264420659210 -
If that's what they insist on, I can't see the negotiations lasting very long.CarlottaVance said:
The 'exit bill' is one obvious issue - but I'm more concerned by this 'EU nationals benefitting from the ECJ and EU regulations indefinitely' - they can't seriously think we'll agree to two legal systems running in parallel and two classes of citizens can they?ydoethur said:
Yes, very possibly true. But you're missing my point. I don't think she will have the option of walking away because I think from early indications the EU are getting ready to storm out first.williamglenn said:
May's political bubble would burst very quickly if she walked away with 18 months still on the clock and nothing agreed. All indications are that the government does not have the capacity to prepare for such an outcome.ydoethur said:
That will be difficult if the EU itself refuses to negotiate, which is what I am expecting. There's just too big a gap between what the government here can put forward and what they would be willing to even discuss.williamglenn said:
If May walks away from negotiations, we'll still be in the EU until 2019 and will be watching the clock waiting to go over the cliff edge.ydoethur said:
Not so much likely as damn near certain. If they're going to start blaming us for their own complete inability to negotiate sensible leases, still more charge us for that failure, then it's clear they don't want to actually talk about anything at all.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting PS to the first comment:
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
At some point she (or a new Prime Minister) will have to go back to the table.0 -
Mr. G, can imagine you drawing a political map - "Here there be Tories"
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Reality will soon be resumed and Fitalaff and Toom tabard will be crying in their soup instead of wetting their pantsRobD said:
Maybe scotslass was the subeditor?CarlottaVance said:The polls this month are suggesting a 10 to 12% swing from the Conservatives to the SNP. (shome mishtake shurely? - ed.)
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MattBrookes @MattBrookes3 7m7 minutes agoSean_F said:
I don't think Labour will lose every seat.CarlottaVance said:WilliamGlenn has competition in the optimism stakes:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/858216126442065921
Replying to @DPJHodges
Corbyn: "Labour will never again do what Blair did."
That'll be 'win an election' then.0 -
Nobody in Scotland reads that , toilet paper or fish wrapping onlyCarlottaVance said:I doubt they read the Scottish Daily Mail in Bute House anyway....
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/8580774482353520650 -
Mr Dancer, I'm the least hipsterish person you'd ever meet. My razor rarely suffers under use. Also I find prefixing food items with the word 'artisan' to justify ridiculous overcharging complete nonsense. Finally skinny jeans, lumberjack shirt, sleeve tattoos, unkempt beard and baseball cap isn't a 'look' it's a cry for help.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, one hopes you weren't contaminated by hipsterism. Symptoms include:
over-groomed facial hair
the sudden desire to serve food on pieces of slate or driftwood
the confusion of pretentiousness for authenticity.
Mr. Saddened, it's like the Bible Belt's view of sex. It's dirty and horrid and sinful and will damned you forever, and you should save it for your wife.0
