I disagree with Alastair's proposition that the Conservative surge is not taking place in Glasgow.
A rising tide lifts all boats ! Even those moored on the Clyde. It may not do much for Tory MP numbers. I do not know what's happening in Cathcart. But they lost that in 1979.
The Tories will certainly be helped by the surge, no doubt. But this idea that the surge will happen in exactly where they would like it to be is fanciful.
Well, if there was PR........
There's certainly a Unionist vote in Glasgow, one which the Kippertories have courted assiduously all the way to the outer reaches of loony Loyalism. Whether it'll amount to an electoral hill of beans is another matter. The locals next week should be a pretty good indicator.
The sight of SCON MSPs (not Ruth TBF) - cosying up to the WATP crew - is both perplexing and laughable in equal measure !!
Genuine question, what does WATP stand for in this context?
"We Are The People" - its one of the key acronyms associated with extreme Unionists & The Orange Lodge - who to a man/lady also support Rangers. Suffice to say associating yourselves with these folks in Scotland is not very sensible for any serious politician !!
Will SCON be adopting Tina Turner's "Simply the Best" as their campaign song?
It could be useful for inspiring crowd participation: words are often interpolated that start with "FTP" (and they don't mean file transfer protocol) and then express a similar sentiment towards a now defunct organisation. I won't post a link, but a websearch on "Lisa from Battalion" should help. And never mind charity red noses! Wear blue ones instead! Never mind J K Rowling either. Theresa and Ruth could praise the British identity of the Scottish Rangers fans who support the England football team.
Other interpolated words that may appeal are "No surrender" before "Send her victorious" in the British national anthem:
I disagree with Alastair's proposition that the Conservative surge is not taking place in Glasgow.
A rising tide lifts all boats ! Even those moored on the Clyde. It may not do much for Tory MP numbers. I do not know what's happening in Cathcart. But they lost that in 1979.
The Tories will certainly be helped by the surge, no doubt. But this idea that the surge will happen in exactly where they would like it to be is fanciful.
Well, if there was PR........
There's certainly a Unionist vote in Glasgow, one which the Kippertories have courted assiduously all the way to the outer reaches of loony Loyalism. Whether it'll amount to an electoral hill of beans is another matter. The locals next week should be a pretty good indicator.
The sight of SCON MSPs (not Ruth TBF) - cosying up to the WATP crew - is both perplexing and laughable in equal measure !!
Genuine question, what does WATP stand for in this context?
"We Are The People" - its one of the key acronyms associated with extreme Unionists & The Orange Lodge - who to a man/lady also support Rangers. Suffice to say associating yourselves with these folks in Scotland is not very sensible for any serious politician !!
Cheers sir. Kind of sorry I asked now. I think I could have happily gone through life without more details on that particular faction. But again thanks none the less.
Even Mark Stone (Sky) doing his bit for Theresa saying
'no wonder you might say that Theresa May wants a general election now because it certainly strengthens her hand over what will be a very very difficult Brexit negotiation'
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
It's not often I rub shoulders with the hoi-polloi, Pulpstar, but yesterday I was obliged to stand in the queue outside the doctor's and was fascinated to eavesdrop a lively political discusion. If it was at all representative, Corbyn is indeed the issue.
The danger for May of course would be if these voters work out that his chances of getting into number 10 are next door to zero, and as a consequence feel safe to cast their vote on the basis of things like policies, candidates and the like. Labour may then well survive with a decent rump, though of course that leads to the possibilty that Corbyn and the Corbynistas then say 'Well, wasn't that bad, was it, lads?!' and decide to stay on as a consequence.
So tricky judgements to be made, by all parties, as well as the electorate.
The problem with that is that Corbyn will claim the credit, and deliberately fail to acknowledge the simple truth that people voted Labour despite, rather than because of him.
Yes Thomas, I suppose the question is how low the Labour seats total has to go before Corbyn concedes he's the problem. I suspect he and his supporters think the figure is one, as long as that one is Islington. Others may have other ideas however.
What do you think - 150 the point of no return?
The key question is how low do they go before the membership 1) turn against Corbyn, and 2) recognise that in deciding a replacement they have to consider who has electoral appeal as opposed to who makes them feel good about themselves. I'd guess that sub-150 would probably be that figure. The worry is that the successor is simply another Corbynite.
The great hope of the Labour party must be Sadiq Khan. He will be out of the leadership picture for a few years, meaning they can get all the bitter fighting over with without him being contaminated.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
It's not often I rub shoulders with the hoi-polloi, Pulpstar, but yesterday I was obliged to stand in the queue outside the doctor's and was fascinated to eavesdrop a lively political discusion. If it was at all representative, Corbyn is indeed the issue.
The danger for May of course would be if these voters work out that his chances of getting into number 10 are next door to zero, and as a consequence feel safe to cast their vote on the basis of things like policies, candidates and the like. Labour may then well survive with a decent rump, though of course that leads to the possibilty that Corbyn and the Corbynistas then say 'Well, wasn't that bad, was it, lads?!' and decide to stay on as a consequence.
So tricky judgements to be made, by all parties, as well as the electorate.
The problem with that is that Corbyn will claim the credit, and deliberately fail to acknowledge the simple truth that people voted Labour despite, rather than because of him.
Yes Thomas, I suppose the question is how low the Labour seats total has to go before Corbyn concedes he's the problem. I suspect he and his supporters think the figure is one, as long as that one is Islington. Others may have other ideas however.
What do you think - 150 the point of no return?
The key question is how low do they go before the membership 1) turn against Corbyn, and 2) recognise that in deciding a replacement they have to consider who has electoral appeal as opposed to who makes them feel good about themselves. I'd guess that sub-150 would probably be that figure. The worry is that the successor is simply another Corbynite.
I believe that the membership has already turned against Corbyn. Fear that he would be replaced was probably a key factor in persuading May to call the election.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
It's not often I rub shoulders with the hoi-polloi, Pulpstar, but yesterday I was obliged to stand in the queue outside the doctor's and was fascinated to eavesdrop a lively political discusion. If it was at all representative, Corbyn is indeed the issue.
The danger for May of course would be if these voters work out that his chances of getting into number 10 are next door to zero, and as a consequence feel safe to cast their vote on the basis of things like policies, candidates and the like. Labour may then well survive with a decent rump, though of course that leads to the possibilty that Corbyn and the Corbynistas then say 'Well, wasn't that bad, was it, lads?!' and decide to stay on as a consequence.
So tricky judgements to be made, by all parties, as well as the electorate.
The problem with that is that Corbyn will claim the credit, and deliberately fail to acknowledge the simple truth that people voted Labour despite, rather than because of him.
Yes Thomas, I suppose the question is how low the Labour seats total has to go before Corbyn concedes he's the problem. I suspect he and his supporters think the figure is one, as long as that one is Islington. Others may have other ideas however.
What do you think - 150 the point of no return?
The key question is how low do they go before the membership 1) turn against Corbyn, and 2) recognise that in deciding a replacement they have to consider who has electoral appeal as opposed to who makes them feel good about themselves. I'd guess that sub-150 would probably be that figure. The worry is that the successor is simply another Corbynite.
I believe that the membership has already turned against Corbyn. Fear that he would be replaced was probably a key factor in persuading May to call the election.
Yes, but if they think the answer is Rebecca Long-Bailey, they're still in need of the reality check that June 8 should provide.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
It's not often I rub shoulders with the hoi-polloi, Pulpstar, but yesterday I was obliged to stand in the queue outside the doctor's and was fascinated to eavesdrop a lively political discusion. If it was at all representative, Corbyn is indeed the issue.
The danger for May of course would be if these voters work out that his chances of getting into number 10 are next door to zero, and as a consequence feel safe to cast their vote on the basis of things like policies, candidates and the like. Labour may then well survive with a decent rump, though of course that leads to the possibilty that Corbyn and the Corbynistas then say 'Well, wasn't that bad, was it, lads?!' and decide to stay on as a consequence.
So tricky judgements to be made, by all parties, as well as the electorate.
The problem with that is that Corbyn will claim the credit, and deliberately fail to acknowledge the simple truth that people voted Labour despite, rather than because of him.
Yes Thomas, I suppose the question is how low the Labour seats total has to go before Corbyn concedes he's the problem. I suspect he and his supporters think the figure is one, as long as that one is Islington. Others may have other ideas however.
What do you think - 150 the point of no return?
However unlikely it may be, what would be the outcome for Labour if Mr Corbyn lost his seat?
Would it restore sanity, or would it fire up his supporters as a 'martyrdom'?
Very very tight qualifying. Will start writing the pre-race article presently, but tips may be some time. Race looks intriguing.
If Ferrari stay ahead at the start, I think they have this.
(edit - it's a one stop, and Mercedes don't have the track position or tyre management to make the overcut or undercut work. Past the first corner, they are not going to overtake on the track.)
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
What do they do if JC resigns after next Thursday ?
Depends who takes over ...
Watson I'd imagine
Keir Starmer possibly might lure me back and Stella Creasy definitely would.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
What do they do if JC resigns after next Thursday ?
Depends who takes over ...
Watson I'd imagine
Keir Starmer possibly might lure me back and Stella Creasy definitely would.
The great hope of the Labour party must be Sadiq Khan. He will be out of the leadership picture for a few years, meaning they can get all the bitter fighting over with without him being contaminated.
He got himself elected as Mayor of London, but it's not London that needs winning over. It's just about everywhere else. Whether he'll be so well-received elsewhere is open to question.
Mr. B, I don't want to ramble too much about this (saving it for the blog) but there is a potential massive fly in that ointment.
The track is hard for overtaking, and one stop is very likely. A safety car is also highly likely, and teams will try and make their stops coincide with the safety car. If they can't (through misfortune) then some of them will end up losing a chunk of time, and be unable to pass.
That said, I'm glad I put a tiny sum on your suggestion of Raikkonen each way for the win at 13.
And don't forget Ferrari have mostly started tardily this year.
'I believe that the membership has already turned against Corbyn. Fear that he would be replaced was probably a key factor in persuading May to call the election'.
Are you sure. Many will have but many more are acting out a cult that may be very difficult to dislodge.
The labour MP's returned post the 8th June need to refuse the whip, form their own group with a leader and just ignore Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Thornberry and the rest of the architects of the destruction of the labour party.
I never liked Kinnock but I remember it as if it was yesterday when he threw out Militant and saved the party paving the way for Blair. Sadly this time the labour MP's bottled it
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
It's not often I rub shoulders with the hoi-polloi, Pulpstar, but yesterday I was obliged to stand in the queue outside the doctor's and was fascinated to eavesdrop a lively political discusion. If it was at all representative, Corbyn is indeed the issue.
The danger for May of course would be if these voters work out that his chances of getting into number 10 are next door to zero, and as a consequence feel safe to cast their vote on the basis of things like policies, candidates and the like. Labour may then well survive with a decent rump, though of course that leads to the possibilty that Corbyn and the Corbynistas then say 'Well, wasn't that bad, was it, lads?!' and decide to stay on as a consequence.
So tricky judgements to be made, by all parties, as well as the electorate.
The problem with that is that Corbyn will claim the credit, and deliberately fail to acknowledge the simple truth that people voted Labour despite, rather than because of him.
Yes Thomas, I suppose the question is how low the Labour seats total has to go before Corbyn concedes he's the problem. I suspect he and his supporters think the figure is one, as long as that one is Islington. Others may have other ideas however.
What do you think - 150 the point of no return?
However unlikely it may be, what would be the outcome for Labour if Mr Corbyn lost his seat?
Would it restore sanity, or would it fire up his supporters as a 'martyrdom'?
Cults and cult leaders interpret everything as demonstrating that they are right.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
What do they do if JC resigns after next Thursday ?
Depends who takes over ...
Watson I'd imagine
Keir Starmer possibly might lure me back and Stella Creasy definitely would.
Isn't it automatically Watson?
At this stage I guess it would be.
Would it still be Watto even if he lost his seat (I think he'll hold still)
Even Mark Stone (Sky) doing his bit for Theresa saying
'no wonder you might say that Theresa May wants a general election now because it certainly strengthens her hand over what will be a very very difficult Brexit negotiation'
Their obsession with stressing their 'unity' is a sure sign that they know they won't be when it comes down to the wire.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
What do they do if JC resigns after next Thursday ?
Depends who takes over ...
Watson I'd imagine
Keir Starmer possibly might lure me back and Stella Creasy definitely would.
Isn't it automatically Watson?
At this stage I guess it would be.
Would it still be Watto even if he lost his seat (I think he'll hold still)
I think the question was who would succeed if Corbyn resigned after the local results on Friday. It would have to be Watson in that case.
I disagree with Alastair's proposition that the Conservative surge is not taking place in Glasgow.
A rising tide lifts all boats ! Even those moored on the Clyde. It may not do much for Tory MP numbers. I do not know what's happening in Cathcart. But they lost that in 1979.
The Tories will certainly be helped by the surge, no doubt. But this idea that the surge will happen in exactly where they would like it to be is fanciful.
Well, if there was PR........
There's certainly a Unionist vote in Glasgow, one which the Kippertories have courted assiduously all the way to the outer reaches of loony Loyalism. Whether it'll amount to an electoral hill of beans is another matter. The locals next week should be a pretty good indicator.
The sight of SCON MSPs (not Ruth TBF) - cosying up to the WATP crew - is both perplexing and laughable in equal measure !!
Genuine question, what does WATP stand for in this context?
"We Are The People" - its one of the key acronyms associated with extreme Unionists & The Orange Lodge - who to a man/lady also support Rangers. Suffice to say associating yourselves with these folks in Scotland is not very sensible for any serious politician !!
Will SCON be adopting Tina Turner's "Simply the Best" as their campaign song?
It could be useful for inspiring crowd participation: words are often interpolated that start with "FTP" (and they don't mean file transfer protocol) and then express a similar sentiment towards a now defunct organisation. I won't post a link, but a websearch on "Lisa from Battalion" should help. And never mind charity red noses! Wear blue ones instead! Never mind J K Rowling either. Theresa and Ruth could praise the British identity of the Scottish Rangers fans who support the England football team.
Other interpolated words that may appeal are "No surrender" before "Send her victorious" in the British national anthem:
Even Mark Stone (Sky) doing his bit for Theresa saying
'no wonder you might say that Theresa May wants a general election now because it certainly strengthens her hand over what will be a very very difficult Brexit negotiation'
Their obsession with stressing their 'unity' is a sure sign that they know they won't be when it comes down to the wire.
It took them one minute to vote and simultaneously applaud like North Korea. And do not ask how much it cost to get them all together for one minute. The organisation is beyond parody
Are you sure. Many will have but many more are acting out a cult that may be very difficult to dislodge.
The labour MP's returned post the 8th June need to refuse the whip, form their own group with a leader and just ignore Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Thornberry and the rest of the architects of the destruction of the labour party.
I never liked Kinnock but I remember it as if it was yesterday when he threw out Militant and saved the party paving the way for Blair. Sadly this time the labour MP's bottled it
Agreed. Labour failed to kick Corbyn out at the previous attempt, when things were already going badly wrong. No particular reason to suppose majority of membership won't back him if there's a next time (and there probably will be, regardless of how poor the June 8th result is.)
The great hope of the Labour party must be Sadiq Khan. He will be out of the leadership picture for a few years, meaning they can get all the bitter fighting over with without him being contaminated.
He got himself elected as Mayor of London, but it's not London that needs winning over. It's just about everywhere else. Whether he'll be so well-received elsewhere is open to question.
I thought he was noticeably unimpressive and disappointing during the referendum debates. He was definitely outshone by Ruth.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
What do they do if JC resigns after next Thursday ?
Depends who takes over ...
Watson I'd imagine
Keir Starmer possibly might lure me back and Stella Creasy definitely would.
Isn't it automatically Watson?
At this stage I guess it would be.
Would it still be Watto even if he lost his seat (I think he'll hold still)
I think the question was who would succeed if Corbyn resigned after the local results on Friday. It would have to be Watson in that case.
If Corbyn walks next week they'd have no choice but Watson as a temp leader, unless they could somehow have the MPs unite behind someone else before Parliament was dissolved. Would be a nightmare for the moderates though, they need to ensure that Jez and his fellow travellers own the coming defeat if they're to avoid the party splitting in half after the election.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
What do they do if JC resigns after next Thursday ?
Depends who takes over ...
Watson I'd imagine
Keir Starmer possibly might lure me back and Stella Creasy definitely would.
Isn't it automatically Watson?
A Leader of the Labour Party who, in my opinion, would be even worse than Corbyn or MacDonnell. He is the divisive politician's divisive politician. He was also the go-to Dirty Tricks wizard of the declining years of the Blair/Brown government. The way he has bullied and thugged his way through the Party means that there are far too many people who have brutal scars and long memories.
Indeed. Labour were in a dire state at the time of the Owen Smith challenge, yet the membership returned Corbyn comfortably.
If the anticipated landslide comes and he still refuses to quit then I think that's game over. The surviving members of the sensible faction will have to split off, or resign themselves to gradual extinction.
A Far Left Labour Party could go lumbering on almost indefinitely as a protest movement and job creation scheme for metropolitan Marxists, but it would never come close to leading a Government again. Little or no strength beyond a handful of urban strongholds, and the very poorest communities.
I don't believe they (the MPs) know what to do about it, and I don't see how any loss of existing MPs is going to fire them up. There doesn't seem to be a real gritty leader among them, and that's what is needed. Not as potential party leader (yet) but as leader of the resistance.
So unless one of them has a sudden upsurge of personal courage, it looks as though they're waiting for new blood. The right person might be elected this time, but would long-standing MPs coalesce around a newbie?
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
Mr. D., what has the fellow done that has upset you? Do be specific, now.
As for North Korea and Syria those are big boys games and the UK has neither the muscle nor the soft-power to influence either. It matters not who is Foreign Secretary these days.
Mr. B, I don't want to ramble too much about this (saving it for the blog) but there is a potential massive fly in that ointment.
The track is hard for overtaking, and one stop is very likely. A safety car is also highly likely, and teams will try and make their stops coincide with the safety car. If they can't (through misfortune) then some of them will end up losing a chunk of time, and be unable to pass.
That said, I'm glad I put a tiny sum on your suggestion of Raikkonen each way for the win at 13.
And don't forget Ferrari have mostly started tardily this year.
My thinking was Bottas to lead the first lap - it's a long way to the first braking zone and the red cars haven't been the quickest off the line this season.
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Mr. Llama, not being a superpower doesn't mean we shouldn't be a great power.
Boris lacks credibility, and judgement. Recently pronouncing it'd be very hard for us to decline if the US wanted us to be more involved in Syrian military adventures was not wise.
And for those who claim it's inevitable, we were not involved in Vietnam and needn't have been involved in the ill-considered Iraq invasion were it not for Blair's desire for a pat on the head.
F1: it appears the stupidly named King of the Road market on Ladbrokes is indeed fastest lap, pole and winning all together (Vettel's now the only selection available). Why they renamed it something so unhelpfully vague is beyond me.
Mr. B, I don't want to ramble too much about this (saving it for the blog) but there is a potential massive fly in that ointment.
The track is hard for overtaking, and one stop is very likely. A safety car is also highly likely, and teams will try and make their stops coincide with the safety car. If they can't (through misfortune) then some of them will end up losing a chunk of time, and be unable to pass.
That said, I'm glad I put a tiny sum on your suggestion of Raikkonen each way for the win at 13.
And don't forget Ferrari have mostly started tardily this year.
I look forwards to your comments, Mr.D.
And agree that the peroxide poltroon ought to be put out to pasture.
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
She won't do it, though. Needs him onside as she pivots towards soft Brexit. Or, needs someone to blame if Brexit turns to custard.
There's certainly a Unionist vote in Glasgow, one which the Kippertories have courted assiduously all the way to the outer reaches of loony Loyalism. Whether it'll amount to an electoral hill of beans is another matter. The locals next week should be a pretty good indicator.
The sight of SCON MSPs (not Ruth TBF) - cosying up to the WATP crew - is both perplexing and laughable in equal measure !!
Genuine question, what does WATP stand for in this context?
"We Are The People" - its one of the key acronyms associated with extreme Unionists & The Orange Lodge - who to a man/lady also support Rangers. Suffice to say associating yourselves with these folks in Scotland is not very sensible for any serious politician !!
Will SCON be adopting Tina Turner's "Simply the Best" as their campaign song?
It could be useful for inspiring crowd participation: words are often interpolated that start with "FTP" (and they don't mean file transfer protocol) and then express a similar sentiment towards a now defunct organisation. I won't post a link, but a websearch on "Lisa from Battalion" should help. And never mind charity red noses! Wear blue ones instead! Never mind J K Rowling either. Theresa and Ruth could praise the British identity of the Scottish Rangers fans who support the England football team.
Other interpolated words that may appeal are "No surrender" before "Send her victorious" in the British national anthem:
Hopefully, the Scottish Tories will use "No More Catholics" as their campaign song.
'No more Prods in Ibrox after the 5th Celtic goal' has a jaunty ring to it.
The Prody Vicar from Bread has been confirmed as the Tory candidate in Clacton.
Should be the MP if things turn out as expected.
The same one who ran Carswell a reasonably close second last time?
Any less than a 15,000 Con majority would probably be considered disappointing.
Clacton is probably the safest bet for a Con gain in the whole country. Carswell had a massive personal vote, and he'll be campaigning for the Tories that ran him close last time.
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
Armed with a large majority, thereby increasing her authority, I'm expecting TM to make a handful of changes to her cabinet, not least in replacing a very uninspiring CoE . Somehow, however, I rather suspect Boris will survive.
I think Lindsay Hoyle is less likely to be next speaker than the current LAY odds of 2.74 (a healthy £449 currently available suggest) not least because he has a decent chance of being unseated.
My personal formulation is £20 against Hoyle (exposure £34.80) to be next speaker, £20 on at 11/8 to take the seat.
Net result, Tories take the seat = zero, otherwise Hoyle NOT to be next Speaker at 11/2. (Though if the Tories win you would need to wait till a change in Speaker.)
Mr. B, I don't want to ramble too much about this (saving it for the blog) but there is a potential massive fly in that ointment.
The track is hard for overtaking, and one stop is very likely. A safety car is also highly likely, and teams will try and make their stops coincide with the safety car. If they can't (through misfortune) then some of them will end up losing a chunk of time, and be unable to pass.
That said, I'm glad I put a tiny sum on your suggestion of Raikkonen each way for the win at 13.
And don't forget Ferrari have mostly started tardily this year.
My thinking was Bottas to lead the first lap - it's a long way to the first braking zone and the red cars haven't been the quickest off the line this season.
He'll be exceedingly lucky to get past both Ferraris - though it would be good to see. Getting the best start is something of a lottery, and barring absolute blunders from both Vettel and Raikkonnen, it's a really big ask.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
What do they do if JC resigns after next Thursday ?
Depends who takes over ...
Watson I'd imagine
Keir Starmer possibly might lure me back and Stella Creasy definitely would.
Isn't it automatically Watson?
At this stage I guess it would be.
I just re-read the relevant part of the rule book. It reads like if Corbyn were to quit, it would be Watson's if he wanted it - until an election could be organised. If he were to turn it down, the NEC would choose one of the Shadow Cabinet - also until an election could be organised.
It's unlikely, to say the least, that an election could be run before 8th June. And of the few things that I can foresee that might be less appealing to the electorate than Corbyn is a placeholder leader who is due to be replaced by AN Other after the general election.
In short, I think the "Corbyn resigns to save Labour" thing is virtually impossible.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
What do they do if JC resigns after next Thursday ?
Depends who takes over ...
Watson I'd imagine
Keir Starmer possibly might lure me back and Stella Creasy definitely would.
Isn't it automatically Watson?
A Leader of the Labour Party who, in my opinion, would be even worse than Corbyn or MacDonnell. He is the divisive politician's divisive politician. He was also the go-to Dirty Tricks wizard of the declining years of the Blair/Brown government. The way he has bullied and thugged his way through the Party means that there are far too many people who have brutal scars and long memories.
The general public doesn't care about that sort of stuff though - Watto, Khan, Creasy, Starmer etc etc might not make great leaders (Khan seems to be doing a passable job in London)... but they won't produce the sort of reaction that Corbyn or McDonnel will get.
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Indeed. She might think all three brexiteers had outlived their usefulness as human shields and were dispensable. Hurray!
Indeed. Labour were in a dire state at the time of the Owen Smith challenge, yet the membership returned Corbyn comfortably.
If the anticipated landslide comes and he still refuses to quit then I think that's game over. The surviving members of the sensible faction will have to split off, or resign themselves to gradual extinction.
A Far Left Labour Party could go lumbering on almost indefinitely as a protest movement and job creation scheme for metropolitan Marxists, but it would never come close to leading a Government again. Little or no strength beyond a handful of urban strongholds, and the very poorest communities.
I don't believe they (the MPs) know what to do about it, and I don't see how any loss of existing MPs is going to fire them up. There doesn't seem to be a real gritty leader among them, and that's what is needed. Not as potential party leader (yet) but as leader of the resistance.
So unless one of them has a sudden upsurge of personal courage, it looks as though they're waiting for new blood. The right person might be elected this time, but would long-standing MPs coalesce around a newbie?
The main obstacle to the centre-left MPs isn't necessarily the lack of a leader. It's the pig-headedness of the mass membership.
Dumping Labour and taking the moderate fraction of the membership with you (along with, I dare say, a lot of ex-Labourites prepared to join a new party) is the solution to this problem. You abolish the party membership and elect a new one.
You run the terrible risk of splitting what's left of the Labour vote between the two parties, resulting in mutually assured destruction, but if they can't get Labour back off the Far Left then insofar as I can see they have a huge amount to gain and very little left to lose from electing to fight rather than simply to surrender.
Bottas passing the Ferraris is something I'm bearing in mind. The Mercedes have started better than the Ferraris. Not necessarily going to back it, but will bear it in mind.
I think Lindsay Hoyle is less likely to be next speaker than the current LAY odds of 2.74 (a healthy £449 currently available suggest) not least because he has a decent chance of being unseated.
My personal formulation is £20 against Hoyle (exposure £34.80) to be next speaker, £20 on at 11/8 to take the seat.
Net result, Tories take the seat = zero, otherwise Hoyle NOT to be next Speaker at 11/2. (Though if the Tories win you would need to wait till a change in Speaker.)
DYOR
2.74 is way too short, although as you say there could be a few years to wait for this market to pay out. I guess it depends on whether the Tories give him a serious challenge or go for a paper candidate to try and keep him around. It should be a winnable seat if they challenge for it.
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Indeed. She might think all three brexiteers had outlived their usefulness as human shields and were dispensable. Hurray!
Not David Davies - he is the only one who has done a good job.
On Theresa May campaigning with the public there must be a serious concern for her security and so it will have to be very controlled by her protection squad
Mr. B, I don't want to ramble too much about this (saving it for the blog) but there is a potential massive fly in that ointment.
The track is hard for overtaking, and one stop is very likely. A safety car is also highly likely, and teams will try and make their stops coincide with the safety car. If they can't (through misfortune) then some of them will end up losing a chunk of time, and be unable to pass.
That said, I'm glad I put a tiny sum on your suggestion of Raikkonen each way for the win at 13.
And don't forget Ferrari have mostly started tardily this year.
My thinking was Bottas to lead the first lap - it's a long way to the first braking zone and the red cars haven't been the quickest off the line this season.
He'll be exceedingly lucky to get past both Ferraris - though it would be good to see. Getting the best start is something of a lottery, and barring absolute blunders from both Vettel and Raikkonnen, it's a really big ask.
Of course Vettel should be the favourite to lead them around, in fact at all three previous events the pole sitter has led the first lap. I'd hope to get on Bottas at 12/1 or better, as a fun beer money bet.
Mr. Llama, not being a superpower doesn't mean we shouldn't be a great power.
Boris lacks credibility, and judgement. Recently pronouncing it'd be very hard for us to decline if the US wanted us to be more involved in Syrian military adventures was not wise.
And for those who claim it's inevitable, we were not involved in Vietnam and needn't have been involved in the ill-considered Iraq invasion were it not for Blair's desire for a pat on the head.
We are not going to be anymore involved in Syrian military adventures, or indeed any military adventures beyond our derisory contribution in the Baltic and Poland. Simply because we no longer have the ooomph to get involved. Since 2010 the Conservatives have slashed defence the point where the UK cannot, in the old expression, fight, fuck or run a foot-race. Furthermore, I am told this morning that after the election the 2015 SDR is to be re-opened and further cuts made (watch for the amphibious capability to be finally ditched).
It matters not who is in charge at the FCO. The DfID and the Board of Trade (or whatever it is called this week) has far more power and influence and they have the square root of bugger all. So given that the Tories have given away all our cards we might as well keep Boris at the FCO, he can't do any harm, might do some good (he is a classicist after all) and can provide us with a few smiles along the way.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
What do they do if JC resigns after next Thursday ?
Depends who takes over ...
Watson I'd imagine
Keir Starmer possibly might lure me back and Stella Creasy definitely would.
Isn't it automatically Watson?
At this stage I guess it would be.
Would it still be Watto even if he lost his seat (I think he'll hold still)
If you're talking about after the general election, that's an interesting question. The rule book provides that nominees for leader and deputy have to be Commons members of the PLP but I can't find a provision for what happens if either office holder ceases to be a member of the PLP. Logically the nomination provision would imply that it would create a vacancy, but these things aren't always interpreted logically.
Mr. Llama, Defence has been screwed by every government I can remember. It's depressing and short-sighted.
Mr. Sandpit, indeed. Timing of the safety car (if there is one) is an interesting factor to consider as well. It screwed Vettel in China, nearly screwed him in Bahrain and could screw him in Russia too.
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Indeed. She might think all three brexiteers had outlived their usefulness as human shields and were dispensable. Hurray!
Not David Davies - he is the only one who has done a good job.
On Theresa May campaigning with the public there must be a serious concern for her security and so it will have to be very controlled by her protection squad
Why would Theresa May be more at risk than any other prime minister, especially those who campaigned while the IRA was active?
"General election 2017: Nearly half of all Labour voters could desert party, poll shows
48% of those who voted for Ed Miliband in the last election will be taking their votes elsewhere, as voters desert Ukip and the Liberal Democrats in even greater numbers"
Indeed. Labour were in a dire state at the time of the Owen Smith challenge, yet the membership returned Corbyn comfortably.
If the anticipated landslide comes and he still refuses to quit then I think that's game over. The surviving members of the sensible faction will have to split off, or resign themselves to gradual extinction.
A Far Left Labour Party could go lumbering on almost indefinitely as a protest movement and job creation scheme for metropolitan Marxists, but it would never come close to leading a Government again. Little or no strength beyond a handful of urban strongholds, and the very poorest communities.
I don't believe they (the MPs) know what to do about it, and I don't see how any loss of existing MPs is going to fire them up. There doesn't seem to be a real gritty leader among them, and that's what is needed. Not as potential party leader (yet) but as leader of the resistance.
So unless one of them has a sudden upsurge of personal courage, it looks as though they're waiting for new blood. The right person might be elected this time, but would long-standing MPs coalesce around a newbie?
The main obstacle to the centre-left MPs isn't necessarily the lack of a leader. It's the pig-headedness of the mass membership.
Dumping Labour and taking the moderate fraction of the membership with you (along with, I dare say, a lot of ex-Labourites prepared to join a new party) is the solution to this problem. You abolish the party membership and elect a new one.
You run the terrible risk of splitting what's left of the Labour vote between the two parties, resulting in mutually assured destruction, but if they can't get Labour back off the Far Left then insofar as I can see they have a huge amount to gain and very little left to lose from electing to fight rather than simply to surrender.
If they split they are really finished under FPTP they would split tomorrow with a PR system .As would the conservatives eventually.The new alignment on the right with the UKIP destruction has helped but the left of centre split had historically helped the most successful pragmatic right of centre party namely the conservatives .Under these circumstances they are always hard to beat which makes Blair success electorally a massive achievement compared to any of his predecessors.
Indeed. Labour were in a dire state at the time of the Owen Smith challenge, yet the membership returned Corbyn comfortably.
If the anticipated landslide comes and he still refuses to quit then I think that's game over. The surviving members of the sensible faction will have to split off, or resign themselves to gradual extinction.
A Far Left Labour Party could go lumbering on almost indefinitely as a protest movement and job creation scheme for metropolitan Marxists, but it would never come close to leading a Government again. Little or no strength beyond a handful of urban strongholds, and the very poorest communities.
I don't believe they (the MPs) know what to do about it, and I don't see how any loss of existing MPs is going to fire them up. There doesn't seem to be a real gritty leader among them, and that's what is needed. Not as potential party leader (yet) but as leader of the resistance.
So unless one of them has a sudden upsurge of personal courage, it looks as though they're waiting for new blood. The right person might be elected this time, but would long-standing MPs coalesce around a newbie?
The main obstacle to the centre-left MPs isn't necessarily the lack of a leader. It's the pig-headedness of the mass membership.
Dumping Labour and taking the moderate fraction of the membership with you (along with, I dare say, a lot of ex-Labourites prepared to join a new party) is the solution to this problem. You abolish the party membership and elect a new one.
You run the terrible risk of splitting what's left of the Labour vote between the two parties, resulting in mutually assured destruction, but if they can't get Labour back off the Far Left then insofar as I can see they have a huge amount to gain and very little left to lose from electing to fight rather than simply to surrender.
Maybe that's the end-point we're approaching: for the Labour 'brand' to be so contaminated that even their tribal loyalist voters can't stomach it - and vote elsewhere.
Once they have voted anything but Labour, they will be much more open to voting for an ex-Labour party under another banner - Co-operative Party or whatever.
Then the Labour party name can be left to wither under the control of the Far Left whilst present-day realists can start rebuilding the Labour values under another banner.
Hopefully, once they've done so, they will be more careful about letting in Far Left influences when the next gate-crash starts.
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Indeed. She might think all three brexiteers had outlived their usefulness as human shields and were dispensable. Hurray!
I doubt whether there'll be a wholesale cull of Brexiteers. David Davis appears to be regarded as relatively inoffensive. Fox and Leadsom are both quite low-profile.
@Gardenwalker makes a good case for keeping Boris as a human shield in the event of Brexit problems and/or a salesman to divert the flak generated by any compromises with the EU that May decides to make - and, after all, Foreign Secretaries nowadays seem to operate on a pretty short leash from No.10. Perhaps he is right. Then again, not only is Boris a bit of a jester in a serious age, but sacking him would represent a considerable demonstration of power.
May got away with dismissing Osborne with a wave of the hand - why not Boris as well? How much capacity does he have to orchestrate trouble from the backbenches? Would he have any sort of a faction, let alone one large enough to cause trouble for a very well-supported Prime Minister?
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Indeed. She might think all three brexiteers had outlived their usefulness as human shields and were dispensable. Hurray!
Not David Davies - he is the only one who has done a good job.
On Theresa May campaigning with the public there must be a serious concern for her security and so it will have to be very controlled by her protection squad
Why would Theresa May be more at risk than any other prime minister, especially those who campaigned while the IRA was active?
Are you for real - I simply cannot see how anyone could not think that the British Prime Minister is under real threat from terrorist attack
Indeed. Labour were in a dire state at the time of the Owen Smith challenge, yet the membership returned Corbyn comfortably.
If the anticipated landslide comes and he still refuses to quit then I think that's game over. The surviving members of the sensible faction will have to split off, or resign themselves to gradual extinction.
A Far Left Labour Party could go lumbering on almost indefinitely as a protest movement and job creation scheme for metropolitan Marxists, but it would never come close to leading a Government again. Little or no strength beyond a handful of urban strongholds, and the very poorest communities.
I don't believe they (the MPs) know what to do about it, and I don't see how any loss of existing MPs is going to fire them up. There doesn't seem to be a real gritty leader among them, and that's what is needed. Not as potential party leader (yet) but as leader of the resistance.
So unless one of them has a sudden upsurge of personal courage, it looks as though they're waiting for new blood. The right person might be elected this time, but would long-standing MPs coalesce around a newbie?
The main obstacle to the centre-left MPs isn't necessarily the lack of a leader. It's the pig-headedness of the mass membership.
Dumping Labour and taking the moderate fraction of the membership with you (along with, I dare say, a lot of ex-Labourites prepared to join a new party) is the solution to this problem. You abolish the party membership and elect a new one.
You run the terrible risk of splitting what's left of the Labour vote between the two parties, resulting in mutually assured destruction, but if they can't get Labour back off the Far Left then insofar as I can see they have a huge amount to gain and very little left to lose from electing to fight rather than simply to surrender.
If they split they are really finished under FPTP they would split tomorrow with a PR system .As would the conservatives eventually.The new alignment on the right with the UKIP destruction has helped but the left of centre split had historically helped the most successful pragmatic right of centre party namely the conservatives .Under these circumstances they are always hard to beat which makes Blair success electorally a massive achievement compared to any of his predecessors.
@Gardenwalker makes a good case for keeping Boris as a human shield in the event of Brexit problems and/or a salesman to divert the flak generated by any compromises with the EU that May decides to make - and, after all, Foreign Secretaries nowadays seem to operate on a pretty short leash from No.10. Perhaps he is right. Then again, not only is Boris a bit of a jester in a serious age, but sacking him would represent a considerable demonstration of power.
May got away with dismissing Osborne with a wave of the hand - why not Boris as well? How much capacity does he have to orchestrate trouble from the backbenches? Would he have any sort of a faction, let alone one large enough to cause trouble for a very well-supported Prime Minister?
She needs him to play the John Prescott role to keep the Brexiteers on side as May has her clause 4 moment and abandons most of their illusions.
"General election 2017: Nearly half of all Labour voters could desert party, poll shows
48% of those who voted for Ed Miliband in the last election will be taking their votes elsewhere, as voters desert Ukip and the Liberal Democrats in even greater numbers"
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Indeed. She might think all three brexiteers had outlived their usefulness as human shields and were dispensable. Hurray!
Not David Davies - he is the only one who has done a good job.
On Theresa May campaigning with the public there must be a serious concern for her security and so it will have to be very controlled by her protection squad
Why would Theresa May be more at risk than any other prime minister, especially those who campaigned while the IRA was active?
Are you for real - I simply cannot see how anyone could not think that the British Prime Minister is under real threat from terrorist attack
Are you for real? The IRA came very close to killing Mrs Thatcher and most of the government at Brighton. Does Theresa May face more risk from a bunch of Islamist-inspired but not coordinated nutters armed with cars and kitchen knives? Really?
Sadiq Khan and others thought he had no chance ,just thought he was there to make the numbers up and widen the debate.They read it wrong but who on here can honestly say they thought he had a chance of winning when he was scaped onto the ballot.If you did show us your betting slip at 200 to 1.
"General election 2017: Nearly half of all Labour voters could desert party, poll shows
48% of those who voted for Ed Miliband in the last election will be taking their votes elsewhere, as voters desert Ukip and the Liberal Democrats in even greater numbers"
Wow. Confirms Ipsos Mori in the previous threader.
Rumours of LDs' and Ukip's non-death are greatly exaggerated.
The LDs always have the lowest level of certainty to vote and the fewest of their historic voters who say they'll vote for them. Normally, they get away with it. (2015 was the exception.)
Mr. B, I don't want to ramble too much about this (saving it for the blog) but there is a potential massive fly in that ointment.
The track is hard for overtaking, and one stop is very likely. A safety car is also highly likely, and teams will try and make their stops coincide with the safety car. If they can't (through misfortune) then some of them will end up losing a chunk of time, and be unable to pass.
That said, I'm glad I put a tiny sum on your suggestion of Raikkonen each way for the win at 13.
And don't forget Ferrari have mostly started tardily this year.
My thinking was Bottas to lead the first lap - it's a long way to the first braking zone and the red cars haven't been the quickest off the line this season.
He'll be exceedingly lucky to get past both Ferraris - though it would be good to see. Getting the best start is something of a lottery, and barring absolute blunders from both Vettel and Raikkonnen, it's a really big ask.
Of course Vettel should be the favourite to lead them around, in fact at all three previous events the pole sitter has led the first lap. I'd hope to get on Bottas at 12/1 or better, as a fun beer money bet.
Sounds about right. In any event, I have now profitably laid all my pre-qualifying Ferrari race bets, and can enjoy the race without betting distraction (having found in the past that the temptation to make snap bets during the race can lead to disaster by way of safety car or mechanical failure).
The championship is now the intriguing thing (and as I predicted, Hamilton and Vettel are now on very similar odds). Ferrari have the better car; Mercedes the stronger engine.... and of course, there is more freedom to develop the car, although Ferrari's innovations will be hard to duplicate mid season.
If they split they are really finished under FPTP they would split tomorrow with a PR system .As would the conservatives eventually.The new alignment on the right with the UKIP destruction has helped but the left of centre split had historically helped the most successful pragmatic right of centre party namely the conservatives .Under these circumstances they are always hard to beat which makes Blair success electorally a massive achievement compared to any of his predecessors.
But my point is that, yes, if it doesn't work the two warring parties could wipe each other out, but unless the moderates can somehow prize apart the desperate grip that the Far Left now has on Labour, then they have nothing left to lose by rolling the dice.
If there is a Conservative hegemony come June 9th then it won't last. Nature abhors a vacuum, and a viable Opposition will emerge. If nobody outside the Tories is effective enough to create one, then they themselves will become both so strong and so broad as a party that when, at some point, there eventually comes a moment of fundamental disagreement within it, the Conservative Party - unrestrained any longer by a formidable opponent - will split and form both Government and Opposition itself.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
It's not often I rub shoulders with the hoi-polloi, Pulpstar, but yesterday I was obliged to stand in the queue outside the doctor's and was fascinated to eavesdrop a lively political discusion. If it was at all representative, Corbyn is indeed the issue.
The danger for May of course would be if these voters work out that his chances of getting into number 10 are next door to zero, and as a consequence feel safe to cast their vote on the basis of things like policies, candidates and the like. Labour may then well survive with a decent rump, though of course that leads to the possibilty that Corbyn and the Corbynistas then say 'Well, wasn't that bad, was it, lads?!' and decide to stay on as a consequence.
So tricky judgements to be made, by all parties, as well as the electorate.
The problem with that is that Corbyn will claim the credit, and deliberately fail to acknowledge the simple truth that people voted Labour despite, rather than because of him.
Yes Thomas, I suppose the question is how low the Labour seats total has to go before Corbyn concedes he's the problem. I suspect he and his supporters think the figure is one, as long as that one is Islington. Others may have other ideas however.
What do you think - 150 the point of no return?
The key question is how low do they go before the membership 1) turn against Corbyn, and 2) recognise that in deciding a replacement they have to consider who has electoral appeal as opposed to who makes them feel good about themselves. I'd guess that sub-150 would probably be that figure. The worry is that the successor is simply another Corbynite.
I believe that the membership has already turned against Corbyn. Fear that he would be replaced was probably a key factor in persuading May to call the election.
Dr Eoin is still a big fan - he's been in raptures today!
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Indeed. She might think all three brexiteers had outlived their usefulness as human shields and were dispensable. Hurray!
Not David Davies - he is the only one who has done a good job.
On Theresa May campaigning with the public there must be a serious concern for her security and so it will have to be very controlled by her protection squad
Why would Theresa May be more at risk than any other prime minister, especially those who campaigned while the IRA was active?
Are you for real - I simply cannot see how anyone could not think that the British Prime Minister is under real threat from terrorist attack
Are you for real? The IRA came very close to killing Mrs Thatcher and most of the government at Brighton. Does Theresa May face more risk from a bunch of Islamist-inspired but not coordinated nutters armed with cars and kitchen knives? Really?
Indeed. Labour were in a dire state at the time of the Owen Smith challenge, yet the membership returned Corbyn comfortably.
If the anticipated landslide comes and he still refuses to quit then I think that's game over. The surviving members of the sensible faction will have to split off, or resign themselves to gradual extinction.
A Far Left Labour Party could go lumbering on almost indefinitely as a protest movement and job creation scheme for metropolitan Marxists, but it would never come close to leading a Government again. Little or no strength beyond a handful of urban strongholds, and the very poorest communities.
I don't believe they (the MPs) know what to do about it, and I don't see how any loss of existing MPs is going to fire them up. There doesn't seem to be a real gritty leader among them, and that's what is needed. Not as potential party leader (yet) but as leader of the resistance.
So unless one of them has a sudden upsurge of personal courage, it looks as though they're waiting for new blood. The right person might be elected this time, but would long-standing MPs coalesce around a newbie?
The main obstacle to the centre-left MPs isn't necessarily the lack of a leader. It's the pig-headedness of the mass membership.
Dumping Labour and taking the moderate fraction of the membership with you (along with, I dare say, a lot of ex-Labourites prepared to join a new party) is the solution to this problem. You abolish the party membership and elect a new one.
You run the terrible risk of splitting what's left of the Labour vote between the two parties, resulting in mutually assured destruction, but if they can't get Labour back off the Far Left then insofar as I can see they have a huge amount to gain and very little left to lose from electing to fight rather than simply to surrender.
If they split they are really finished under FPTP they would split tomorrow with a PR system .As would the conservatives eventually.The new alignment on the right with the UKIP destruction has helped but the left of centre split had historically helped the most successful pragmatic right of centre party namely the conservatives .Under these circumstances they are always hard to beat which makes Blair success electorally a massive achievement compared to any of his predecessors.
FPTnP is the curse of politics in this country.
Nah. It really isn't. It is a fine system. Far better than any PR rubbish.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
It's not often I rub shoulders with the hoi-polloi, Pulpstar, but yesterday I was obliged to stand in the queue outside the doctor's and was fascinated to eavesdrop a lively political discusion. If it was at all representative, Corbyn is indeed the issue.
The danger for May of course would be if these voters work out that his chances of getting into number 10 are next door to zero, and as a consequence feel safe to cast their vote on the basis of things like policies, candidates and the like. Labour may then well survive with a decent rump, though of course that leads to the possibilty that Corbyn and the Corbynistas then say 'Well, wasn't that bad, was it, lads?!' and decide to stay on as a consequence.
So tricky judgements to be made, by all parties, as well as the electorate.
The problem with that is that Corbyn will claim the credit, and deliberately fail to acknowledge the simple truth that people voted Labour despite, rather than because of him.
Yes Thomas, I suppose the question is how low the Labour seats total has to go before Corbyn concedes he's the problem. I suspect he and his supporters think the figure is one, as long as that one is Islington. Others may have other ideas however.
What do you think - 150 the point of no return?
The key question is how low do they go before the membership 1) turn against Corbyn, and 2) recognise that in deciding a replacement they have to consider who has electoral appeal as opposed to who makes them feel good about themselves. I'd guess that sub-150 would probably be that figure. The worry is that the successor is simply another Corbynite.
I believe that the membership has already turned against Corbyn. Fear that he would be replaced was probably a key factor in persuading May to call the election.
Yes, but if they think the answer is Rebecca Long-Bailey, they're still in need of the reality check that June 8 should provide.
Exactly. Corbyn is a symptom of the problem and not THE problem. Labour members need to realise that the way back to relevance, if not power, is to get Conservative voters to a switch to them. They need to cherish Tory voters.
Mr. Glenn, Juncker's quite right. We really do need to treat this situation soberly.
Mr. B, I've also (waiting the last few markets) checked the title markets.
Bet that potentially intrigues me is Raikkonen each way for the title (currently that means a third the odds, top 2) at 34. If the Ferrari does pull away, he might achieve that.
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Indeed. She might think all three brexiteers had outlived their usefulness as human shields and were dispensable. Hurray!
Not David Davies - he is the only one who has done a good job.
On Theresa May campaigning with the public there must be a serious concern for her security and so it will have to be very controlled by her protection squad
Why would Theresa May be more at risk than any other prime minister, especially those who campaigned while the IRA was active?
Are you for real - I simply cannot see how anyone could not think that the British Prime Minister is under real threat from terrorist attack
Are you for real? The IRA came very close to killing Mrs Thatcher and most of the government at Brighton. Does Theresa May face more risk from a bunch of Islamist-inspired but not coordinated nutters armed with cars and kitchen knives? Really?
Indeed. Labour were in a dire state at the time of the Owen Smith challenge, yet the membership returned Corbyn comfortably.
If the anticipated landslide comes and he still refuses to quit then I think that's game over. The surviving members of the sensible faction will have to split off, or resign themselves to gradual extinction.
A Far Left Labour Party could go lumbering on almost indefinitely as a protest movement and job creation scheme for metropolitan Marxists, but it would never come close to leading a Government again. Little or no strength beyond a handful of urban strongholds, and the very poorest communities.
I don't believe they (the MPs) know what to do about it, and I don't see how any loss of existing MPs is going to fire them up. There doesn't seem to be a real gritty leader among them, and that's what is needed. Not as potential party leader (yet) but as leader of the resistance.
So unless one of them has a sudden upsurge of personal courage, it looks as though they're waiting for new blood. The right person might be elected this time, but would long-standing MPs coalesce around a newbie?
The main obstacle to the centre-left MPs isn't necessarily the lack of a leader. It's the pig-headedness of the mass membership.
Dumping Labour and taking the moderate fraction of the membership with you (along with, I dare say, a lot of ex-Labourites prepared to join a new party) is the solution to this problem. You abolish the party membership and elect a new one.
You run the terrible risk of splitting what's left of the Labour vote between the two parties, resulting in mutually assured destruction, but if they can't get Labour back off the Far Left then insofar as I can see they have a huge amount to gain and very little left to lose from electing to fight rather than simply to surrender.
If they split they are really finished under FPTP they would split tomorrow with a PR system .As would the conservatives eventually.The new alignment on the right with the UKIP destruction has helped but the left of centre split had historically helped the most successful pragmatic right of centre party namely the conservatives .Under these circumstances they are always hard to beat which makes Blair success electorally a massive achievement compared to any of his predecessors.
FPTnP is the curse of politics in this country.
Nah. It really isn't. It is a fine system. Far better than any PR rubbish.
Both systems have their advantages and disadvantages.
Seems the focus groups are picking up lifelong Labour voters who are going to vote Tory just to try and unseat Corbyn. I think that's correct, the fewer seats Labour get this election the better. It's not a natural ebb and flow such as will happen for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid and the NI parties - Labour needs to be utterly humiliated this election
Humiliated, destroyed, kaboshed for their disastrous decision making.
What do they do if JC resigns after next Thursday ?
Depends who takes over ...
Watson I'd imagine
Keir Starmer possibly might lure me back and Stella Creasy definitely would.
Isn't it automatically Watson?
At this stage I guess it would be.
No - there are provisions for an emergency Leadership election in the constitution. It would probably mean that the membership is not consulted.
Mr. Calum, as an aside, Boris should be thrown out of the Foreign Office. These are serious times. He is not a serious politician.
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
On a broader point, given that everybody is now expecting a 70-80 seat Conservative majority at the very minimum, has anybody had any thoughts on the possibility of a post-election reshuffle?
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Indeed. She might think all three brexiteers had outlived their usefulness as human shields and were dispensable. Hurray!
Not David Davies - he is the only one who has done a good job.
On Theresa May campaigning with the public there must be a serious concern for her security and so it will have to be very controlled by her protection squad
Why would Theresa May be more at risk than any other prime minister, especially those who campaigned while the IRA was active?
Are you for real - I simply cannot see how anyone could not think that the British Prime Minister is under real threat from terrorist attack
Are you for real? The IRA came very close to killing Mrs Thatcher and most of the government at Brighton. Does Theresa May face more risk from a bunch of Islamist-inspired but not coordinated nutters armed with cars and kitchen knives? Really?
Ah, yes. Mr Corbyn's dining partners the following week, IIRC.
Mr. L, the idea that New Labour didn't screw Defence is perhaps not entirely in accordance with reality.
How's that then? It's Conservative governments before and since who have cut the navy, the army and the air force. Under Labour, the complaints were the rifles didn't work and the jeeps lacked armour. Serious enough if you're being shot at but hardly the same scale. And the dodgy rifles were bought by the Tories in the first place (not sure about the jeeps). Even the last government's commitment to 2% is only achieved by creative accounting.
Juncker: "The British underestimate the technical difficulties of Brexit. Even the question of citizens' rights is a cortege of 25 separate issues."
A perfect example of what is so wrong with the EU.
There is no technical difficulty of Brexit. If a deal is not reached in approximately 755 days then we are out, and the EU will be whistling for our "exit bill".
Mr. Glenn, Juncker's quite right. We really do need to treat this situation soberly.
Mr. B, I've also (waiting the last few markets) checked the title markets.
Bet that potentially intrigues me is Raikkonen each way for the title (currently that means a third the odds, top 2) at 34. If the Ferrari does pull away, he might achieve that.
That's a good price for a trading e/w bet on Kimi. I was thinking of rebacking Lewis for the title, to find him a miserly 2.2 on Betfair. Maybe if he doesn't win tomorrow he'll be out closer to 3.
Comments
https://s3.amazonaws.com/omeka-net/29208/archive/files/2360eec0955ee2ee7d80eb49959e9bd8.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=AKIAI3ATG3OSQLO5HGKA&Expires=1493514729&Signature=1AMxu7TNseNdD0+8jhbJl6mrJjo=
'no wonder you might say that Theresa May wants a general election now because it certainly strengthens her hand over what will be a very very difficult Brexit negotiation'
Very very tight qualifying. Will start writing the pre-race article presently, but tips may be some time. Race looks intriguing.
Would it restore sanity, or would it fire up his supporters as a 'martyrdom'?
(edit - it's a one stop, and Mercedes don't have the track position or tyre management to make the overcut or undercut work. Past the first corner, they are not going to overtake on the track.)
EU 27 uniting and UK about to unite (around Theresa)
Let's play!
The track is hard for overtaking, and one stop is very likely. A safety car is also highly likely, and teams will try and make their stops coincide with the safety car. If they can't (through misfortune) then some of them will end up losing a chunk of time, and be unable to pass.
That said, I'm glad I put a tiny sum on your suggestion of Raikkonen each way for the win at 13.
And don't forget Ferrari have mostly started tardily this year.
'I believe that the membership has already turned against Corbyn. Fear that he would be replaced was probably a key factor in persuading May to call the election'.
Are you sure. Many will have but many more are acting out a cult that may be very difficult to dislodge.
The labour MP's returned post the 8th June need to refuse the whip, form their own group with a leader and just ignore Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, Thornberry and the rest of the architects of the destruction of the labour party.
I never liked Kinnock but I remember it as if it was yesterday when he threw out Militant and saved the party paving the way for Blair. Sadly this time the labour MP's bottled it
Any less than a 15,000 Con majority would probably be considered disappointing.
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/210365/scottish-tories-split-uk-party-boris-johnson-becomes-leader/
I'm not just thinking of the EU (or even mostly), but North Korea, Syria, the persistent terrorist threat.
The country would be better off if he were presenting Top Gear.
So unless one of them has a sudden upsurge of personal courage, it looks as though they're waiting for new blood. The right person might be elected this time, but would long-standing MPs coalesce around a newbie?
As for North Korea and Syria those are big boys games and the UK has neither the muscle nor the soft-power to influence either. It matters not who is Foreign Secretary these days.
May could soon be not only a PM who is hugely popular by historical standards, but also a landslide election winner with a many (perhaps, a great many) MPs who could plausibly be described as having won their seats only because of her, and a large enough majority to put the noses of one or two factions out of joint if she needs to. Her powers of patronage ought to be vast.
If she's minded to give Boris the chop then there'll never be a better time to do it.
Boris lacks credibility, and judgement. Recently pronouncing it'd be very hard for us to decline if the US wanted us to be more involved in Syrian military adventures was not wise.
And for those who claim it's inevitable, we were not involved in Vietnam and needn't have been involved in the ill-considered Iraq invasion were it not for Blair's desire for a pat on the head.
And agree that the peroxide poltroon ought to be put out to pasture.
Needs him onside as she pivots towards soft Brexit. Or, needs someone to blame if Brexit turns to custard.
Markets still warming up.
I think Lindsay Hoyle is less likely to be next speaker than the current LAY odds of 2.74 (a healthy £449 currently available suggest) not least because he has a decent chance of being unseated.
My personal formulation is £20 against Hoyle (exposure £34.80) to be next speaker, £20 on at 11/8 to take the seat.
Net result, Tories take the seat = zero, otherwise Hoyle NOT to be next Speaker at 11/2. (Though if the Tories win you would need to wait till a change in Speaker.)
DYOR
Mr. Calum, Culture, Media, and Sport, as someone here suggested. Or junior minister for fish.
Getting the best start is something of a lottery, and barring absolute blunders from both Vettel and Raikkonnen, it's a really big ask.
It's unlikely, to say the least, that an election could be run before 8th June. And of the few things that I can foresee that might be less appealing to the electorate than Corbyn is a placeholder leader who is due to be replaced by AN Other after the general election.
In short, I think the "Corbyn resigns to save Labour" thing is virtually impossible.
Dumping Labour and taking the moderate fraction of the membership with you (along with, I dare say, a lot of ex-Labourites prepared to join a new party) is the solution to this problem. You abolish the party membership and elect a new one.
You run the terrible risk of splitting what's left of the Labour vote between the two parties, resulting in mutually assured destruction, but if they can't get Labour back off the Far Left then insofar as I can see they have a huge amount to gain and very little left to lose from electing to fight rather than simply to surrender.
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2017/04/29/the-prime-ministerial-parrot/
Anyway, plenty more where that came from - my favourite is the Archetype of Absent Auctoritas.
On Theresa May campaigning with the public there must be a serious concern for her security and so it will have to be very controlled by her protection squad
It matters not who is in charge at the FCO. The DfID and the Board of Trade (or whatever it is called this week) has far more power and influence and they have the square root of bugger all. So given that the Tories have given away all our cards we might as well keep Boris at the FCO, he can't do any harm, might do some good (he is a classicist after all) and can provide us with a few smiles along the way.
Mr. Sandpit, indeed. Timing of the safety car (if there is one) is an interesting factor to consider as well. It screwed Vettel in China, nearly screwed him in Bahrain and could screw him in Russia too.
48% of those who voted for Ed Miliband in the last election will be taking their votes elsewhere, as voters desert Ukip and the Liberal Democrats in even greater numbers"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-2017-corbyn-jeremy-labour-theresa-may-conservatives-poll-yougov-abandon-party-a7708956.html
Once they have voted anything but Labour, they will be much more open to voting for an ex-Labour party under another banner - Co-operative Party or whatever.
Then the Labour party name can be left to wither under the control of the Far Left whilst present-day realists can start rebuilding the Labour values under another banner.
Hopefully, once they've done so, they will be more careful about letting in Far Left influences when the next gate-crash starts.
https://twitter.com/EUCouncilPress/status/858316926564618241
@Gardenwalker makes a good case for keeping Boris as a human shield in the event of Brexit problems and/or a salesman to divert the flak generated by any compromises with the EU that May decides to make - and, after all, Foreign Secretaries nowadays seem to operate on a pretty short leash from No.10. Perhaps he is right. Then again, not only is Boris a bit of a jester in a serious age, but sacking him would represent a considerable demonstration of power.
May got away with dismissing Osborne with a wave of the hand - why not Boris as well? How much capacity does he have to orchestrate trouble from the backbenches? Would he have any sort of a faction, let alone one large enough to cause trouble for a very well-supported Prime Minister?
Rumours of LDs' and Ukip's non-death are greatly exaggerated.
Sadiq Khan and others thought he had no chance ,just thought he was there to make the numbers up and widen the debate.They read it wrong but who on here can honestly say they thought he had a chance of winning when he was scaped onto the ballot.If you did show us your betting slip at 200 to 1.
In any event, I have now profitably laid all my pre-qualifying Ferrari race bets, and can enjoy the race without betting distraction (having found in the past that the temptation to make snap bets during the race can lead to disaster by way of safety car or mechanical failure).
The championship is now the intriguing thing (and as I predicted, Hamilton and Vettel are now on very similar odds).
Ferrari have the better car; Mercedes the stronger engine.... and of course, there is more freedom to develop the car, although Ferrari's innovations will be hard to duplicate mid season.
If there is a Conservative hegemony come June 9th then it won't last. Nature abhors a vacuum, and a viable Opposition will emerge. If nobody outside the Tories is effective enough to create one, then they themselves will become both so strong and so broad as a party that when, at some point, there eventually comes a moment of fundamental disagreement within it, the Conservative Party - unrestrained any longer by a formidable opponent - will split and form both Government and Opposition itself.
The idiocy of the PLP was commented on at great length at the time.
Mr. B, I've also (waiting the last few markets) checked the title markets.
Bet that potentially intrigues me is Raikkonen each way for the title (currently that means a third the odds, top 2) at 34. If the Ferrari does pull away, he might achieve that.