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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Caught in the backwash. The SNP subsides and the Conservatives
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Caught in the backwash. The SNP subsides and the Conservatives surge
In 2010, not a single seat in Scotland changed hands. Electoral politics north of the border has got a bit more dynamic since then. 2017 will not be as wild as 2015 but the polls suggest a fair amount of movement.
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Part 1 : Demographic Extremes"
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part1.html
Part 2:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/Analysis_extreme30_part2.html
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgoen/status/856589811171373057
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/858077448235352065
The most 'British' place is in Oldham - where 43% were born outside the UK.
The least 'British' place is in Dundee - where only 4% were born outside the UK, but it is strongly SNP with "education and economic indicators significantly below average"
Cheers Mr Meeks, it’s a marvel that we are seeing such a thread on PB so soon after the 2015 wipe-out, despite the lack of plum betting opportunities it appears to have provided.
“This isn’t some vanity nameplate on a personal blog. This is a fully tooled-up talent factory and management company dedicated to the destruction of political correctness and the progressive left. I will spend every waking moment of the rest of my life making the lives of journalists, professors, politicians, feminists, Black Lives Matter activists and other professional victims a living hell. Free speech is back — and it is fabulous.”
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=10208971036928639&id=1097887344
Last night I was up until some daft hour watching Milo's speech at the University of New Mexico on YouTube and tonight I've watched the UC - Colorado Springs talk (again). Really recommended.
"MILO, Inc. will bring laughter and war to every corner of America in dozens of different formats. I will fight harder and look hotter than anyone else on the political right. And I will do more damage to the political left than anyone else in American culture.
"I'd like to say thank you to my haters for this great gift. Your furious tweets will heat my pool."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3441400/theresa-may-unveils-bold-plea-to-oust-scottish-national-party/
Expectations management? Diversionary tactics? What's going on......?
JEREMY Corbyn and his top shadow ministers have been accused of being in bed with shamed tank chasing lawyers accused of hounding British troops.
A damning dossier was published that details the Labour boss and three of his top team’s close links to two under fire firms.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3441517/jeremy-corbyn-and-minister-emily-thornberry-accused-of-close-links-with-tank-chasing-lawyers/
One query though, second paragraph, surely the 10-12% swing is from the SNP to the Conservatives, rather than the other way around?
Or perhaps they need to keep Corbyn away from the marginals?
Or the local MP is a Blairite and they are trying to remove him/her?
I don't know I'm just offering possible explanations.
Edit - number three seems a possibility on Hillier's record. However, she must be an old acquaintance of Corbyn as she is a former mayor of Islington, so maybe it's just (2).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12085895/Jeremy-Corbyn-condemmned-over-links-to-lawyers-who-accused-British-troops-of-abuse.html
Perhaps surprisingly to some, Muslims self describe as British more frequently than ethnic Britons (in part because many of those self descibe as one of the 4 nations). I find that encouraging.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/apr/11/british-muslims-strong-sense-of-belonging-poll-homosexuality-sharia-law
On a microgeographic level the divide between Leave and Remain is even more striking. Brexit Britain is Jaywick, Remain Britain is Brighton.
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/04/28/the-tory-taste-of-death/
Not the article itself, which is the usual pompous and incoherent drivel (you can tell the author is a friend of Simon's) but the comments.
If (if!) those two commentators are in any way representative of Labour's core support, then we should expect Labour to forfeit large numbers of seats in the North of England and possibly do even worse than expected in Wales.
I still can't quite believe they'll dip to 15%, but everything looks incredibly ominous. And the campaign still isn't properly underway yet.
https://leftfootforward.org/2010/10/southern-discomfort-is-now-labours-universal-discomfort/
It is worth remembering that Labour's reputation has declined significantly since the disastrous days when 13% of people in the north thought they managed public services efficiently - a figure embarrassingly double that in the south.
"PS – there won’t be any long-winded negotiations. You’re an idiot if you think so. We will be out in far less than 2 years, certainly before the next EU elections. May will make a couple of attempts at negotiating, announce it’s pointless due to EU intransigence and we will simply walk away."
I agree that is a very likely outcome, and also why May wants such a big majority before it becomes obvious.
You Gov overstated the gap by 4.5.
Survation overstated the gap by 5.5.
Panelbase overstated the gap by 7.5
It would be worth knowing how they have adjusted weightings and methods in the interim.
It is also worth noting that the Tories are level or leading with Survation and Panelbase 55+ demographic and Yougov's 50+.
http://labourlist.org/2017/04/luke-akehurst-we-are-fighting-in-this-election-for-the-survival-of-the-labour-party/
Interesting article, Mr. Meeks. I've backed, with small sums, the Conservatives to make gains here and there, but avoided the 12 seat bet. I wouldn't be surprised if the SNP were still on 50+ (I'd be surprised if they hit low 40s), but we'll see.
As we shall also see how the Ferraris perform in P3 and whether Mercedes can narrow the seeming gap.
There seem to be big risks in that approach to me. If we leave, and it makes little or no difference to our economy despite the threats, it seems likely other nations will quickly follow. If we leave and it causes a financial crash, the contagion could bring down Deutsche Bank and all bets on the euro's survival are off.
They are gambling that there will be a punishment severe enough to discourage others, yet not bad enough to destroy them. A very narrow window. But there, they seem so blinded by their obsessive love for their creation and hatred of those 52% who rejected their project that it hasn't occurred to them that they are risking everything to make a wholly unnecessary point.
At some point she (or a new Prime Minister) will have to go back to the table.
I would really like the Tories to be very close or even take this seat and I will be spending time there again myself but it seems remarkable to me that it is thought to be in play at all. I have met Ian Duncan, the MEP who is the candidate this time around. He is very bright, articulate and personable but frankly nowhere nearly as well known in the Constituency as Alex was.
Alastair may be right in that this may be another wave election where the quality of the candidate doesn't really matter that much. I am not sure in a General Election, as opposed to a bye election, how important the candidate is anyway these days. Political campaigning seems to be ever more a series of photo-ops by the leaders and I really wonder how much good leaflets etc at local level do. That said, even though I find him irritating Wishart seems pretty popular and he is a lot more high profile than most of the 56 the SNP originally sent to Westminster.
If I was betting on this seat it would be on the SNP. But I couldn't bring myself to do that.
I think that the EU just can't contemplate that the UK will leave without a deal because they are so insular in their thinking, so they assume that we will take a crap deal at the last minute and that will be bad enough to scare off other countries from leaving.
I strongly suspect that the UK public will support the Government in rejecting a deal that is obviously unequal regardless of the supposed consequences. Then the EU are in a huge gamble if it turns out that we do not crash after all.
So the question is whether May wants a big majority to execute a no-deal exit, or to cave into a bad deal. I don't see a reasonable deal as even a remote possibility.
My FB feed is getting entertaining at the moment. A fair few of my friends are Labour supporters, and are in no way hesitant to say so.
One meme that's coming up is the BBC being biased to the Conservatives (i.e. the old refrain of "they're not reporting the news how I'd like it to be reported.")
This includes the following: "The BBC is so biased, the Tories should be forced to declare our TV licences as election expenses."
LOL. Labour are going to get crushed.
This from Luke Akehurst's article unwittingly neatly sets out Labour's problem!
I loved the snarky Labour HQ Press Release yesterday saying 'At the Labour Party HQ Jeremy said Theresa May should be getting out meeting people..."
Britain will survive, but it will change the country, quite possibly break it up. Britain will look more like Jaywick and less like Brighton, but that is a feature not a bug.
But maybe that's just Jeremy Corbyn's style - Visit an area where everyone agrees with you, and assure them that they're quite right, and everybody goes home feeling warm. Rather than deal with the awful people who aren't yet as enlightened as you.
Aberdeen is a very unhappy place these days on the back of the oil crash. The difference in Union Street is palpable with a good number of the best restaurants (and Jamie Oliver) gone. 3 years ago when I was staying there overnight for a Court case getting change out of £150 a night was difficult. Recently I got an aparthotel in the centre for £80. Speaking to locals the perception seems to be that the SNP are far more interested in the central belt than them (this is a recurring theme throughout the north east) and have done too little to help. It would not surprise me if Aberdeen South is in play.
I am not at all sure there is much value left though, and that seems to be Mr Meeks conclusion too.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, think their leader might be able to help them win Aberdeen S and AW&K from the SNP, which is not inconceivable. Such are the times in which we live.
(Getting my cheap shot at malc in early for the day....)
My guess, using the eurozone and the migrant crisis as precedents, is probably no.
One of the underpinning characteristics of any european related issue seems to be that they have almost always failed to put the correct foundations in place for anything.
This will be the same.
They never imagined anyone walking away. They will misread and mishandle it, damaging themselves in the process.
Out of curiosity, why do you think the Tories will fall short in Perth?
But there we are. I'm just a grizzled morris dancer from Yorkshire who finds the concept of a shop selling sticks, within walking distance of a park, bloody ridiculous.
You can overdo the authenticity.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/858216126442065921
over-groomed facial hair
the sudden desire to serve food on pieces of slate or driftwood
the confusion of pretentiousness for authenticity.
Mr. Saddened, it's like the Bible Belt's view of sex. It's dirty and horrid and sinful and will damned you forever, and you should save it for your wife.
Edited extra bit: damn*, obviously.
Those interesting electoral maps earlier show a striking correlation between poor self reported health and voting Leave. It was why the £350 million per week for the NHS slogan was so effective, and why the Tories will need to honour it.
As an aside, I am musing over my disgraced colleague convicted yesterday and its implications. He seems to have been another Harold Shipman, though mercifully not a killer.
Ruth Davidson caught breaking parliamentary rules to promote the Tory party
http://www.thenational.scot/news/15253772.Ruth_Davidson_caught_breaking_parliamentary_rules_to_promote_the_Tory_party/
Replying to @DPJHodges
Corbyn: "Labour will never again do what Blair did."
That'll be 'win an election' then.