politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A week tonight and we have 2017’s first big set of elections
Comments
-
They have not a hope in hell in Norwich South - and to be fair no longer have expectations of making much impact there . I know of Greens who will vote tactically for Clive Lewis to fend off any Tory challenge.Pulpstar said:
Bristol West, Norwich South, are the three top targets and probably have the right potential demographic mix.Floater said:
Seats they cannot win - that's a lot of seats.... just saying.Scott_P said:
Past that Sheffield Central perhaps (Bennett is running there)
Most of the country is impossible for them.0 -
Any word on the YouGov?0
-
Err - take a look at their economies you muppetwilliamglenn said:
Gave them sound money and the chance to break the cycle of inflation and devaluation?Floater said:
Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though ehCasino_Royale said:
Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd0 -
I'm playing the long game, there'll be a backlash against posh blokes doing PPE running the country any day now...FrancisUrquhart said:
I hope you didn't have any illusions of being PM? Cos you are missing a couple of subjects there.Chameleon said:
Just straight Economics.MonikerDiCanio said:
What degree are you working towards ?Chameleon said:
For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
0 -
"These vagabond shoes, are longing to stray"Casino_Royale said:
Turn up your stereo to maximum, and do your own rendition of Frank Sinatra's New York, New York.Black_Rook said:It would appear that my neighbour has purchased a guitar.
Pray for me.0 -
Is that you, Roger?Ishmael_Z said:
Factory workers are proles.ITMA said:
Factory workers are lickspittles eh?Scott_P said:
twitter.com/theresa_may/status/857671792080674816SandyRentool said:Any photos of her meeting voters on The Headrow?
Thought not.
Which brave new world do you inhabit...
However you do neatly encapsulate the misbegotten bigotry pervading this site ever since the referendum and more so now that the election is up and running. It has all been been ably led by OGH who has been relentlessly trolling his own website customers about brexit.
Its all very tiresome and tortuous to wade through. Hardly wprth making a return. Painful. Sad.
It make you feel like this man
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WAwuSK36Gw
Proles are Leave voters.
Leave voters are bigots.0 -
That'll have to wait until after the incoming Torypocalypse, and a period of stabilizing 'people's rule' by a series of executive political committees that will follow for about 70 years.Chameleon said:
I'm playing the long game, there'll be a backlash against posh blokes doing PPE running the country any day now...FrancisUrquhart said:
I hope you didn't have any illusions of being PM? Cos you are missing a couple of subjects there.Chameleon said:
Just straight Economics.MonikerDiCanio said:
What degree are you working towards ?Chameleon said:
For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd0 -
Don't worry, they mostly came here as children via family visas, and trained as nurses locally. Somalis have big families. Now that bursaries are gone, fees for nursing degrees imposed and family allowances restricted I cannot see this as a long term source of staff.Floater said:
Why do you so want to plunder other countries health systems?foxinsoxuk said:
It is a shame, they are excellent nurses, but you are right about the Exodus.MonikerDiCanio said:
The good doctor is upset that he can no longer hire melting Mediterranean beauties at bottom dollar to gratefully empty his bed pans.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/mar/18/nhs-eu-nurses-quit-record-numbers
I think it wrong to blame Brexit for the nursing crisis, the devaluation of Sterling and return to growth of the Eurozone does make returning to Iberia attractive, particularly for the Spanish.
We do seem to have recruited some excellent Somali nurses though.
I really wouldn't want to be in the position of needing health or social care in a few years.0 -
http://www.johnmajor.co.uk/page4352.htmlFloater said:
Err - take a look at their economies you muppetwilliamglenn said:
Gave them sound money and the chance to break the cycle of inflation and devaluation?Floater said:
Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though ehCasino_Royale said:
Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
And for businesses inflation is the same unpleasant brew. It destroys competitiveness, damages industrial relations, undermines investment, and savages profits.
So inflation must go. Ending it cannot be painless. The harsh truth is that if the policy isn’t hurting, it isn’t working.0 -
The regional governors will assume direct control.kle4 said:
That'll have to wait until after the incoming Torypocalypse, and a period of stabilizing 'people's rule' by a series of executive political committees that will follow for about 70 years.Chameleon said:
I'm playing the long game, there'll be a backlash against posh blokes doing PPE running the country any day now...FrancisUrquhart said:
I hope you didn't have any illusions of being PM? Cos you are missing a couple of subjects there.Chameleon said:
Just straight Economics.MonikerDiCanio said:
What degree are you working towards ?Chameleon said:
For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd0 -
Serious question - Is there a way to see where all the #imvotinglabour tweets are coming from ?0
-
All work and no play ....isam said:0 -
Todays or Yesterdays?RobD said:Any word on the YouGov?
Theres definitely word on one of them I forget which0 -
A female Iranian football has been kicked out of the national team for playing without a hijab while on a personal trip to Switzerland.
Shiva Amini was on holiday when she took part in a kick-about with a group of men and officials from the Iranian Futsal Federation waded through her social media accounts to find a picture of her playing in a pair of shorts and without a headscarf.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4452544/Iran-bans-female-footballer-ditching-hijab-holiday.html
So jezza about that money you took from the Iranians...0 -
-
A contender for LOL article of the election:
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/27/feminist-zealots-mp-philip-davies-shipley
0 -
No. We had some fleeting foreplay from Alex Massie, who then disappeared.RobD said:Any word on the YouGov?
0 -
Why are you checking up on Mrs Pulpstar?Pulpstar said:Serious question - Is there a way to see where all the #imvotinglabour tweets are coming from ?
0 -
I don't like Philip Davies personally but Shipley seems to !another_richard said:A contender for LOL article of the election:
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/27/feminist-zealots-mp-philip-davies-shipley
Massively safe.0 -
OTOH, Germany had falling real wages throughout the noughties.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd0 -
-
Rush fan?Scott_P said:
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.RobD said:The regional governors will assume direct control.
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.
We have assumed control.
We have assumed control.
We have assumed control.0 -
Didn't TSE say YouGov were only polling twice a week this time - once midweek in the Times and once for the Sunday Times? So next would be Saturday evening?RobD said:Any word on the YouGov?
0 -
May issuing Order 50, May calling an election to ensure a "safe and secure society"....Scott_P said:
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.RobD said:The regional governors will assume direct control.
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.
We have assumed control.
We have assumed control.
We have assumed control.
0 -
Might be...Stark_Dawning said:Rush fan?
0 -
These days the FT front page is about as predictable as the daily express! Actually scrap that the express has Diana AND the weather.Scott_P said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/857693661924077570
0 -
A harsh dose of unemployment and collapsing living standards was just what they needed?williamglenn said:
Gave them sound money and the chance to break the cycle of inflation and devaluation?Floater said:
Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though ehCasino_Royale said:
Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd0 -
All your constituency are belong to us.Scott_P said:
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.RobD said:The regional governors will assume direct control.
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.
Attention, all planets of the solar federation.
We have assumed control.
We have assumed control.
We have assumed control.0 -
Heart of stone...another_richard said:A contender for LOL article of the election:
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/27/feminist-zealots-mp-philip-davies-shipley0 -
More splits. Delicious.another_richard said:A contender for LOL article of the election:
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/27/feminist-zealots-mp-philip-davies-shipley
0 -
Said in 1989 when inflation was about 7%, down from double digits throughout much of the 70s.williamglenn said:
http://www.johnmajor.co.uk/page4352.htmlFloater said:
Err - take a look at their economies you muppetwilliamglenn said:
Gave them sound money and the chance to break the cycle of inflation and devaluation?Floater said:
Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though ehCasino_Royale said:
Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
And for businesses inflation is the same unpleasant brew. It destroys competitiveness, damages industrial relations, undermines investment, and savages profits.
So inflation must go. Ending it cannot be painless. The harsh truth is that if the policy isn’t hurting, it isn’t working.
Greece has had deflation for most of this decade and hasn't had inflation over 5% apart from in just one year since long before they joined the Euro.
Greece doesn't have a problem with inflation, it has a problem with deflation.0 -
I doubt if the WEP will trouble the scoters.another_richard said:A contender for LOL article of the election:
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/27/feminist-zealots-mp-philip-davies-shipley0 -
Tories argue that Maggie squeezing out inflation at the cost of mass unemployment is what fixed Britain. I am not so convinced.Sean_F said:
A harsh dose of unemployment and collapsing living standards was just what they needed?williamglenn said:
Gave them sound money and the chance to break the cycle of inflation and devaluation?Floater said:
Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though ehCasino_Royale said:
Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
Serial devaluation is not a sign of a healthy economy though.0 -
Filled out a long Yougov survey tonight0
-
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.Scott_P said:0 -
The number of people on here who regularly get polled, shouldn't that be of slight concern? None of us are exactly normal random members of the public ie ones with a passing interest in political goings on.0
-
It's becoming apparent that there's only room for one union, and the UK has volunteered itself to be sent to the wrecking yard.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.Scott_P said:0 -
It may not feel like it is compensation but you're wrong - if you're a British worker on stagnant wages that's much better than being an Italian unemployed non-worker without wages.foxinsoxuk said:
If you are a British worker on stagnant or falling wages in Britain then that is little compensation.Philip_Thompson said:
Worth remembering too that wages only measure the income of those who have a job, it doesn't take into account those who are left unemployed.Sean_F said:
Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.foxinsoxuk said:
In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.MonikerDiCanio said:
No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.foxinsoxuk said:
Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.SquareRoot said:
What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.
Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.
Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
Italy 2009 unemployment rate 7%; it's now 12%
UK 2009 unemployment rate 6.7%; it's now 4.8%
We've not just found jobs for our own citizens deflating our average wages, our real wages have been deflated by taking on continents poor too. Any comparison is absurd.
When our spending bubble pops, are things going to get better?0 -
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
0 -
It's part of the Good Friday Agreement, isn't it?Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.Scott_P said:
As such, a non story.0 -
North Canada?FrancisUrquhart said:
More intriguingly is what is a saff London lad doing being interested in such a northern sport?isam said:twitter.com/sporf/status/857686414103900162
Upset on the cards at Leeds - plus more excitement than at East Manchester. He is probably enjoying himself.0 -
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
0 -
Anyone who understands how she is trying to pile up a majority?Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
0 -
It's a damn sight more overly hostile from the EU than Tusk's opening remarks on the process.Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
0 -
Its a sign of a country living beyond its means - something which governments of all parties have encouraged to get votes.foxinsoxuk said:
Tories argue that Maggie squeezing out inflation at the cost of mass unemployment is what fixed Britain. I am not so convinced.Sean_F said:
A harsh dose of unemployment and collapsing living standards was just what they needed?williamglenn said:
Gave them sound money and the chance to break the cycle of inflation and devaluation?Floater said:
Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though ehCasino_Royale said:
Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
Serial devaluation is not a sign of a healthy economy though.
0 -
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.murali_s said:
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
0 -
According to recent referendums, it's the EU which is falling apart while the UK has been endorsed by the sovereign will of the Scottish people.williamglenn said:
It's becoming apparent that there's only room for one union, and the UK has volunteered itself to be sent to the wrecking yard.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.Scott_P said:0 -
It is almost as if the other EU countries are acting in Union to protect common interests, and protect their members.Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
0 -
Tories argue it is part of what fixed Britain, not the only part.foxinsoxuk said:
Tories argue that Maggie squeezing out inflation at the cost of mass unemployment is what fixed Britain. I am not so convinced.Sean_F said:
A harsh dose of unemployment and collapsing living standards was just what they needed?williamglenn said:
Gave them sound money and the chance to break the cycle of inflation and devaluation?Floater said:
Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though ehCasino_Royale said:
Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
Serial devaluation is not a sign of a healthy economy though.0 -
There's the thing. Living standards rocketed from 1979-97, even as Sterling went up and down.foxinsoxuk said:
Tories argue that Maggie squeezing out inflation at the cost of mass unemployment is what fixed Britain. I am not so convinced.Sean_F said:
A harsh dose of unemployment and collapsing living standards was just what they needed?williamglenn said:
Gave them sound money and the chance to break the cycle of inflation and devaluation?Floater said:
Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though ehCasino_Royale said:
Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
Serial devaluation is not a sign of a healthy economy though.0 -
Boris going to declare WW3 without Parliamentary approval ? Mugwump !!!kle4 said:
It's a damn sight more overly hostile from the EU than Tusk's opening remarks on the process.Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
0 -
Why do you continually ignore that there are nations in Europe that are not part of the EU? Clearly it is possible to survive and thrive outside the EU, if you want to make a case that we are unable to do that, maybe you could try that, rather than acting like not being in the EU is in itself impossible.williamglenn said:
It's becoming apparent that there's only room for one union, and the UK has volunteered itself to be sent to the wrecking yard.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.Scott_P said:0 -
Its likely to be 60% Conservative this year - which is a lot more than it was in the 1980s.Pulpstar said:
I don't like Philip Davies personally but Shipley seems to !another_richard said:A contender for LOL article of the election:
' Shipley, in Bradford, West Yorkshire, has been home to feminist marches, discussion groups and bake sales organised by the informal non-partisan Shipley Feminist Zealots (SFZ) – so called after Davies remarked that “feminist zealots really do want to have their cake and eat it”.
After the snap election was called for 8 June, many voters in Shipley felt mobilised by the opportunity to unseat a man they loathe. After all, Davies won 50% of the vote in 2015, with the Labour candidate coming in second at 31% – a significant gap, but one that feasibly could be closed.
But a spanner was chucked into the works from outside the constituency this week when the Women’s Equality party (WEP) revealed it was fielding a candidate in Shipley to challenge Davies’s seat. The announcement, which on the surface sounds like positive news, came as a surprise to SFZ organisers and provoked anger and frustration from many members of the group, who accused the WEP of hijacking Shipley to make headlines with complete disregard for what its people want. '
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/27/feminist-zealots-mp-philip-davies-shipley
Massively safe.
0 -
Actually, the Italian will be working in the black economy as well. A touch of fraud's ok.Philip_Thompson said:
It may not feel like it is compensation but you're wrong - if you're a British worker on stagnant wages that's much better than being an Italian unemployed non-worker without wages.foxinsoxuk said:
If you are a British worker on stagnant or falling wages in Britain then that is little compensation.Philip_Thompson said:
Worth remembering too that wages only measure the income of those who have a job, it doesn't take into account those who are left unemployed.Sean_F said:
Employment has grown hugely in the past seven years, but wages haven't. I'd suggest our labour Market sucks in workers from all over the EU, which depresses wage rates. The Economist ran an article a week ago, showing that the areas of highest immigration had seen the sharpest falls in real wages.foxinsoxuk said:
In a couple of decades we may catch up with Italy.MonikerDiCanio said:
No wonder the people voted for Brexit. Looks like they were getting a raw deal. Things should look up from now on.foxinsoxuk said:
Just that we have lost a lot of ground in terms of real wages against our G7 peers.SquareRoot said:
What do you expect after a 156 BIILLION deficit ????foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
There is no magic money tree. Geddit???
I was a little surprised that our real wages have done worse than Italy.
Though I see things are looking up in France according to Bloomberg.
Euro Is Suddenly Everyone’s Favorite After First Round of French Election https://bloom.bg/2oNsleh
Italy 2009 unemployment rate 7%; it's now 12%
UK 2009 unemployment rate 6.7%; it's now 4.8%
We've not just found jobs for our own citizens deflating our average wages, our real wages have been deflated by taking on continents poor too. Any comparison is absurd.
When our spending bubble pops, are things going to get better?0 -
Something she did fixed Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Tories argue that Maggie squeezing out inflation at the cost of mass unemployment is what fixed Britain. I am not so convinced.Sean_F said:
A harsh dose of unemployment and collapsing living standards was just what they needed?williamglenn said:
Gave them sound money and the chance to break the cycle of inflation and devaluation?Floater said:
Shame about what German policy did to Southern Europe though ehCasino_Royale said:
Yes, the euro and the EU work very well for Germany.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
Serial devaluation is not a sign of a healthy economy though.0 -
Nerd heaven: "Marine Le Pen can breach her glass ceiling: the drastic effect of differentiated abstention" by Serge Galam.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".0 -
I thought they told us a bad relationship with us was not in their interests just as it is not in ours, and yet they have been talking of punishing us, which shows very clearly they want to do more than protect their common interests, they want to harm us. One is reasonable, the other is not, from an organisation whose defenders claim it is the most cultured, enlightened organization on earth, which should include how it treats its rivals, and even its enemies, We are not the latter, we are at most the former, and yet their rhetoric has been beyond that we cannot be seen to benefit from Brexit, it has extended, again, to punishing us.foxinsoxuk said:
It is almost as if the other EU countries are acting in Union to protect common interests, and protect their members.Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
I've been supportive of every level of scrutiny to be applied to May over the exiting process, but as much as she was and is going to act like the big bad EU is out to get us, no matter what they did, they are clearly very happy to play their part in that little dance, they are posturing for their audience more than seeking a mutually beneficial deal.0 -
Oh, it's not a surprise to me. Or a concern.Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
Britain has been alone against a hostile Europe many times before in its history.0 -
Perhaps this could be one of the examples of where May the Strong would launch a preemptive nuclear strike on one of the weak EU states.MarkSenior said:
Boris going to declare WW3 without Parliamentary approval ? Mugwump !!!kle4 said:
It's a damn sight more overly hostile from the EU than Tusk's opening remarks on the process.Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
That will show them0 -
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?Cyan said:Nerd heaven: "Marine Le Pen can breach her glass ceiling: the drastic effect of differentiated abstention" by Serge Galam.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".0 -
They've let me have £20 quite happilyPulpstar said:
Hah. Only £3.18 for me, but that price is just silly.another_richard said:Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1
They only let me have £7.10.0 -
Speak for yourself. My loyalty is to the United Kingdom.williamglenn said:
It's becoming apparent that there's only room for one union, and the UK has volunteered itself to be sent to the wrecking yard.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.Scott_P said:
As is the case for the vast majority of people who live here.0 -
On one of the weak states? Brussels, perhaps?bigjohnowls said:
Perhaps this could be one of the examples of where May the Strong would launch a preemptive nuclear strike on one of the weak EU states.MarkSenior said:
Boris going to declare WW3 without Parliamentary approval ? Mugwump !!!kle4 said:
It's a damn sight more overly hostile from the EU than Tusk's opening remarks on the process.Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
That will show them 0 -
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.kle4 said:
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.murali_s said:
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/857658175893499904
I think that wanting a big majority is all about surviving the fact that negotiations are going to be very short indeed.0 -
Yes. And even worse, he doesn't say what he thinks are fair odds!RobD said:
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?Cyan said:Nerd heaven: "Marine Le Pen can breach her glass ceiling: the drastic effect of differentiated abstention" by Serge Galam.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".0 -
Here's a potential VERY longshot.
North Down Con 500/1
Its a very affluent constituency where May might be popular and which the Conservatives nearly won in 1992.
I wonder if May might campaign there with her emphasis on the United Kingdom.0 -
Bookies seem remarkably reticent to limit me.Alistair said:
They've let me have £20 quite happilyPulpstar said:
Hah. Only £3.18 for me, but that price is just silly.another_richard said:Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1
They only let me have £7.10.0 -
The vote for leave was not made on the basis that the EU would collapse if the UK left. It was made on the basis that the UK would be in control of its borders, money and laws if it left, and so be freer and more prosperous. That is the case regardless of what the EU does or doesn't do, what new crises it encounters or dodges, whether extremists in its midst get 40% of the vote or 50% and whether the euro collapses or hobbles on.foxinsoxuk said:
It is almost as if the other EU countries are acting in Union to protect common interests, and protect their members.Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
0 -
St Ives Tories 7-5 is wrong.
Torbay 1-4 Tories, 9-2 Lib Dem is far more correct.
St Ives should be more like 1-3, 5-2 Lib Dems.0 -
Even the British state does not believe in the United Kingdom (defined as the union between the Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland).Casino_Royale said:
Speak for yourself. My loyalty is to the United Kingdom.williamglenn said:
It's becoming apparent that there's only room for one union, and the UK has volunteered itself to be sent to the wrecking yard.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.Scott_P said:
As is the case for the vast majority of people who live here.0 -
Mushroom for BrusselsRobD said:
On one of the weak states? Brussels, perhaps?bigjohnowls said:
Perhaps this could be one of the examples of where May the Strong would launch a preemptive nuclear strike on one of the weak EU states.MarkSenior said:
Boris going to declare WW3 without Parliamentary approval ? Mugwump !!!kle4 said:
It's a damn sight more overly hostile from the EU than Tusk's opening remarks on the process.Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
That will show them0 -
Or send an aircraft carrier without planes to blockade Hamburg .RobD said:
On one of the weak states? Brussels, perhaps?bigjohnowls said:
Perhaps this could be one of the examples of where May the Strong would launch a preemptive nuclear strike on one of the weak EU states.MarkSenior said:
Boris going to declare WW3 without Parliamentary approval ? Mugwump !!!kle4 said:
It's a damn sight more overly hostile from the EU than Tusk's opening remarks on the process.Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
That will show them0 -
Here is an abridged version.Cyan said:
Yes. And even worse, he doesn't say what he thinks are fair odds!RobD said:
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?Cyan said:Nerd heaven: "Marine Le Pen can breach her glass ceiling: the drastic effect of differentiated abstention" by Serge Galam.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
If a and b are the turnouts for two candidates and X and Y are the fraction of the electorate who would vote for either candidates, and aX < bY, b wins.
0 -
There's an irony there. We perceived the EU as something done to us, when in fact we had enormous influence, and we perceive Brexit as something we've done to Europe, when in fact it's a process over which we have precious little control.foxinsoxuk said:
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.kle4 said:
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.murali_s said:
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
0 -
It does. The Government would not have maintained 20,000 soldiers in Northern Ireland for nothing.williamglenn said:
Even the British state does not believe in the United Kingdom (defined as the union between the Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland).Casino_Royale said:
Speak for yourself. My loyalty is to the United Kingdom.williamglenn said:
It's becoming apparent that there's only room for one union, and the UK has volunteered itself to be sent to the wrecking yard.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.Scott_P said:
As is the case for the vast majority of people who live here.
You dream of the destruction and humiliation of your own country. But that's all it will ever be. A dream.
0 -
Marine will get somewhere around 35% to 41% according to the polls that were really quite accurate for the first round. Indeed I think 10 days out they underestimated Macron, and overestimated LePen.Cyan said:
Yes. And even worse, he doesn't say what he thinks are fair odds!RobD said:
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?Cyan said:Nerd heaven: "Marine Le Pen can breach her glass ceiling: the drastic effect of differentiated abstention" by Serge Galam.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".
I think the BF 35-40 band is good value at 2.8, and the 30-35% at 8.4.
She is doomed.0 -
Yes, that's right.ThreeQuidder said:
Didn't TSE say YouGov were only polling twice a week this time - once midweek in the Times and once for the Sunday Times? So next would be Saturday evening?RobD said:Any word on the YouGov?
But the suggestion was that there was a Scotland only YouGov tonight.0 -
If the actuaries are retiring people early, no wonder the returns are having to be spread more thinly; the £1.18 back for every pound is for those born 1956-61, who aren't 65 yet.AlastairMeeks said:
This won't make you feel better:Chameleon said:
For what its worth when I see things like this I just want to get my degree and emigrate. To be honest I don't have an awful lot of confidence in the UK's future at all, we have massive generational inequality that is only going to get worse, and stagnant wages while living costs continue to spiral ridiculously. There's no appeal for me in May's 'strong and steady' for me because all steady means is that things will continue to get worse, but at a linear rate.foxinsoxuk said:
It is true that in the NHS and other parts of the public sector that we have had falling real wages for over a decade.Casino_Royale said:
The UK has had very low unemployment, and a large number of people moving from benefits into low paid and self-employed work. These will drag down the averages. As will continued public sector pay restraint as we pay down the deficit. As will the depreciation in Sterling.foxinsoxuk said:
Not a very impressive performance from any point though is it.ThreeQuidder said:FPT:
Even if you accept the airbrushing of the Lib Dems from history, the zero point is the wrong year.foxinsoxuk said:Interesting graph of real wages here. I suspect the uptick of inflation pushes the UK graph line down again.
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/857504408334217216
Currently UK real wages are falling again.
Most people in full-time work in the private sector would have experienced real-terms wage growth.
Germany has had rising real wages and rising employment too, against a backdrop of inward migration. Perhaps we should take note how a "Strong and stable leader" manages a country.
France seems definitely on the mend now, but I pity poor Greece scraping the bottom with us:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd
https://twitter.com/actuarybyday/status/8574865414967377920 -
Shouldn't that have also been true in R1? Yet she marginally underformed her polls, if anything.RobD said:
Did they really write a 14 page paper describing differential turnout?Cyan said:Nerd heaven: "Marine Le Pen can breach her glass ceiling: the drastic effect of differentiated abstention" by Serge Galam.
Summary: considerably more anti-Le Pen people than Le Pen supporters might abstain, giving Le Pen a good chance of winning. Galam predicted Trump's victory. They say he invented sociophysics. He got his PhD in Tel Aviv and works at Sciences Po. "The Trump phenomenon".0 -
Southport LibDem 5/4 looks like value.0
-
The Country will revolt in fury against the EU if the reports on Northern Ireland are true. Interfering in another state is very dangerous indeedfoxinsoxuk said:
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.kle4 said:
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.murali_s said:
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/857658175893499904
I think that wanting a big majority is all about surviving the fact that negotiations are going to be very short indeed.0 -
Llansantffraed (the area around Llanon, Aberarth, Nebo, Pennant and Cross Inn) as it's the ward I actually live in.ydoethur said:Good luck Harry. Which ward are you standing in? From a former Aberystwyth Central voter.
0 -
As far as I can judge he is completely and utterly deranged - and I voted remain!Sean_F said:
It does. The Government would not have maintained 20,000 soldiers in Northern Ireland for nothing.williamglenn said:
Even the British state does not believe in the United Kingdom (defined as the union between the Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland).Casino_Royale said:
Speak for yourself. My loyalty is to the United Kingdom.williamglenn said:
It's becoming apparent that there's only room for one union, and the UK has volunteered itself to be sent to the wrecking yard.Casino_Royale said:
If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.Scott_P said:
As is the case for the vast majority of people who live here.
You dream of the destruction and humiliation of your own country. But that's all it will ever be. A dream.0 -
Yep, if the EU are going to start interfering in the internal arrangements of the UK things will get very dangerous very quickly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Country will revolt in fury against the EU if the reports on Northern Ireland are true. Interfering in another state is very dangerous indeedfoxinsoxuk said:
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.kle4 said:
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.murali_s said:
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/857658175893499904
I think that wanting a big majority is all about surviving the fact that negotiations are going to be very short indeed.0 -
Here's the FT article on a united Ireland. No substance really.
https://www.ft.com/content/f4c720b0-2b63-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c0 -
I'm on both the Tories and Lib Dems at 5-4 against there now. Which is as clear an indication of value as you'll ever see.another_richard said:Southport LibDem 5/4 looks like value.
0 -
https://twitter.com/independent/status/857647493823311876
@GramSkin: 27 countries, almost all with different language and culture, more united than our 4 #StrongAndStable twitter.com/Independent/st…0 -
Don't Panic! Don't Panic!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Country will revolt in fury against the EU if the reports on Northern Ireland are true. Interfering in another state is very dangerous indeedfoxinsoxuk said:
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.kle4 said:
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.murali_s said:
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/857658175893499904
I think that wanting a big majority is all about surviving the fact that negotiations are going to be very short indeed.0 -
Best of luck !HarryHayfield said:
Llansantffraed (the area around Llanon, Aberarth, Nebo, Pennant and Cross Inn) as it's the ward I actually live in.ydoethur said:Good luck Harry. Which ward are you standing in? From a former Aberystwyth Central voter.
Are National Health Action standing in Ceredigion in the General ?0 -
I am not but some in Northern Ireland will be very angry indeedOUT said:
Don't Panic! Don't Panic!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Country will revolt in fury against the EU if the reports on Northern Ireland are true. Interfering in another state is very dangerous indeedfoxinsoxuk said:
The EU has always been clear and consistent that it will act as one, and that Brexit means Brexit. The EU27 seem to be more keen on hard Brexit than anyone in Britain.kle4 said:
The EU has been pushing for a Hard Brexit as much as anyone, if not more than the Tories - the Tories have more dissenting voices on the matter.murali_s said:
Hard Brexit here we come. Tory idiots!!Scott_P said:
@PolhomeEditor: Theresa May says other EU countries are "lining up against us". Who saw that coming?Casino_Royale said:If that's true, then the EU will be acting as a hostile state.
Dave Allen Green of the Jack of Kent blog has just done a very neat precis of their published comments. Worth a read:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/857658175893499904
I think that wanting a big majority is all about surviving the fact that negotiations are going to be very short indeed.0 -
I think that the SNP vote will increase by more than that in West of Scotland and in some areas I can see them increasing by 10%+ but, and I know that this is based from 2012 votes, in some areas they will flat line or indeed fall back slightly. I would guess 3% is a bit low but not by much.Alistair said:Unless I've misread the analysis SNP +3% for the Council elections seems rather low to me does it not?
I have spent a fair bit of time canvassing in different parts of P&K over the last 3 months and there is a lot of anti-SNP feeling about with a number of SNP supporters who are much less enthused than before or indeed switching to other parties. It would be a bit of a surprise to see them holding onto the council as the minority party (20/41 at the moment)
0 -
They let me have £1.25.another_richard said:Here's a potential VERY longshot.
North Down Con 500/1
Its a very affluent constituency where May might be popular and which the Conservatives nearly won in 1992.
I wonder if May might campaign there with her emphasis on the United Kingdom.
I've been restricted ;-(0 -
Matt...
0 -
George Mitchell weighs in:
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/george-mitchell-warns-against-harmful-hard-border-1.3064072
He said believed the British vote to leave the EU will “prove historically to be a huge error”.
“I hope the US government will support and work with the Irish Government and leaders of the EU to achieve an outcome that respects the gains made in recent years,”0 -
-
Baxter has this constituency as being on a knife edge - it certainly looks terrific value at 7/1.Pulpstar said:
Hah. Only £3.18 for me, but that price is just silly.another_richard said:Betfair Wirral South Lab 7/1
They only let me have £7.10.
DYOR0
