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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first phone poll of the campaign has UKIP down to 4% and t

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    Looks like some fine warm early summer weather will arrive just in time for the local elections, possibly the day before.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,299

    Apparently he's planning to stand against Theresa May.

    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/857201292359462916

    Dear me, Theresa will wipe the floor with him.
  • Scott_P said:
    Yes. No deal IS a bad deal (in fact a terrible deal). It's a deal to trade on pretty restrictive WTO terms with a bloc that isn't some trivial backwater, but rather makes up the lion's share of our total trade, both imports and exports.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    [Picks jaw up off floor]

    From Bouattia to this. Frying pans and fires come to mind.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    Essexit said:

    Sounds like PMQs will be worth a look when I get home.

    Was just thinking the same, reading through the comments here.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Prodicus said:

    Corbynista Bouattia ousted from NUS chair. Straw in the wind.

    couldn't happen to a nicer person.
  • I'm in a very poor area for UKIP anyway, but my canvassing has not yet yielded a single mention of their name... not even a negative one, which would at least be encouraging for them in the Wildian sense. They simply aren't on the radar.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    Sandpit said:

    Essexit said:

    Sounds like PMQs will be worth a look when I get home.

    Was just thinking the same, reading through the comments here.
    Only the first half, tbh, the last half hour was mostly sickbag questions from retiring Tory MPs.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,923
    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    No deal would be catastrophic. Everyone bar a few right-wing nutters, both here and outside acknowledge this.
    May needed to call a snap election because
    1. she may well have had to have a mini-election anyway if charges are brought over 2015 election expenses - and may have lost her majority.
    2. once it becomes clear what Brexit means she may become rather unpopular.
    and maybe (hopefully)
    3. she wants to be able to compromise with the EU and can't while she's beholden to some extreme Brexiteers for her slim majority.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,853

    I'm in a very poor area for UKIP anyway, but my canvassing has not yet yielded a single mention of their name... not even a negative one, which would at least be encouraging for them in the Wildian sense. They simply aren't on the radar.

    Job done, innit.

    More seriously, they're spent. 80% of their votes will go to Tory.

    UKIP turned out to be a brilliant vehicle for this country. De toxing the Tories, then gaining huge traction in ex Lab voters who are now either non-voters or thinking of voting Tory.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    Does anyone here have an unlimited Paddy Power account ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,890
    ToryJim said:

    Apparently he's planning to stand against Theresa May.

    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/857201292359462916

    Dear me, Theresa will wipe the floor with him.
    Yes, it would be a big mistake for any vanity candidates to target her. Going after Boris Johnson and Michael Gove would make much more sense, and would allow all the dodgy Vote Leave claims to be kept in the public's minds.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776
    ToryJim said:

    Looks like the Speaker is calling everyone who is standing down. Will finish about half four....

    As PMQs is the biggest opportunity for Bercow to grandstand, could he be about to announce his departure after a final flourish?
    A lost opportunity....
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,545

    Apparently he's planning to stand against Theresa May.

    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/857201292359462916

    A match bet between him and Gina Millar would be interesting...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Scott_P said:
    Yes. No deal IS a bad deal (in fact a terrible deal). It's a deal to trade on pretty restrictive WTO terms with a bloc that isn't some trivial backwater, but rather makes up the lion's share of our total trade, both imports and exports.
    Best get used to the idea, old chap, and plan accordingly if your business takes you into Europe. The powers that be in the EU seem determined to try to punish us for daring to go our own way because, sadly, they are frightened that other countries might do the same.

    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone here have an unlimited Paddy Power account ?

    Don't have an account but a branch 50 yards from where I'm sitting if that helps
  • ToryJim said:

    Apparently he's planning to stand against Theresa May.

    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/857201292359462916

    Dear me, Theresa will wipe the floor with him.
    Yes, it would be a big mistake for any vanity candidates to target her. Going after Boris Johnson and Michael Gove would make much more sense, and would allow all the dodgy Vote Leave claims to be kept in the public's minds.
    Why a "big mistake"?

    Vanity candidates will get derisory votes whoever they stand against. They'll be £500 down, but it's not like MI5 are going to swoop in and take them out. Might as well just enjoy the ride.

    Having said that, I expect he'd enjoy Surrey Heath more... at least Gove will probably be at the hustings, as he's not involved in the national campaign. It's also a nice area, whereas Maidenhead is a dump.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    From Baxter's Telegraph article, cf. his graphic:

    "... there is more territory on the map representing a Conservative majority above 400 than there is for a Labour majority government."
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,890

    ToryJim said:

    Apparently he's planning to stand against Theresa May.

    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/857201292359462916

    Dear me, Theresa will wipe the floor with him.
    Yes, it would be a big mistake for any vanity candidates to target her. Going after Boris Johnson and Michael Gove would make much more sense, and would allow all the dodgy Vote Leave claims to be kept in the public's minds.
    Why a "big mistake"?

    Vanity candidates will get derisory votes whoever they stand against. They'll be £500 down, but it's not like MI5 are going to swoop in and take them out. Might as well just enjoy the ride.

    Having said that, I expect he'd enjoy Surrey Heath more... at least Gove will probably be at the hustings, as he's not involved in the national campaign. It's also a nice area, whereas Maidenhead is a dump.
    Because it would be actively counter-productive politically, rather than merely potentially a waste of time and money.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,299
    Prodicus said:

    From Baxter's Telegraph article, cf. his graphic:

    "... there is more territory on the map representing a Conservative majority above 400 than there is for a Labour majority government."

    A majority above 400? That would require Conservatives to win 525+ seats. Does he really mean that?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"

    @juliamacfarlane: May quoting lines from the "I like Corbyn but" website, which was endorsed by Diane Abbott twitter.com/paulwaugh/stat…
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    No deal would be catastrophic. Everyone bar a few right-wing nutters, both here and outside acknowledge this.
    May needed to call a snap election because
    1. she may well have had to have a mini-election anyway if charges are brought over 2015 election expenses - and may have lost her majority.
    2. once it becomes clear what Brexit means she may become rather unpopular.
    and maybe (hopefully)
    3. she wants to be able to compromise with the EU and can't while she's beholden to some extreme Brexiteers for her slim majority.
    Spot on with point 3 - the surest way to get a deal that isn't too bad is with the May backed by a decent majority.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    ToryJim said:

    Prodicus said:

    From Baxter's Telegraph article, cf. his graphic:

    "... there is more territory on the map representing a Conservative majority above 400 than there is for a Labour majority government."

    A majority above 400? That would require Conservatives to win 525+ seats. Does he really mean that?
    Heh. I doubt it.
  • Strange how Oddschacker in all its constituency markets insists on referring to the LibDems as just plain "Democrats". Do they sense, as I do, that this is just a temporary measure pending a likely further change of name when the 20+ elected MPs from the Yellow Team merge with around half or 80 MPs in number from the centre-left of the Labour Party to become the "Progressive Democrats" and as the second largest party, instantly become Her Majesty's Official Opposition in the HoC?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited April 2017
    never mind...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,923
    felix said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    No deal would be catastrophic. Everyone bar a few right-wing nutters, both here and outside acknowledge this.
    May needed to call a snap election because
    1. she may well have had to have a mini-election anyway if charges are brought over 2015 election expenses - and may have lost her majority.
    2. once it becomes clear what Brexit means she may become rather unpopular.
    and maybe (hopefully)
    3. she wants to be able to compromise with the EU and can't while she's beholden to some extreme Brexiteers for her slim majority.
    Spot on with point 3 - the surest way to get a deal that isn't too bad is with the May backed by a decent majority.
    I did say 'hopefully'. If that isn't her intention or if her new Tory MPs are predominantly hard line Brexiteers then we're in trouble.
    I think that my points 1 and 2 are also valid.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,853
    ToryJim said:
    Hahaha.

    Unheralded levels of tin-earedness....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,853
    Clear from the start.

    Anything without Mrs May is just the also rans.
  • ToryJim said:

    Apparently he's planning to stand against Theresa May.

    https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/857201292359462916

    Dear me, Theresa will wipe the floor with him.
    Yes, it would be a big mistake for any vanity candidates to target her. Going after Boris Johnson and Michael Gove would make much more sense, and would allow all the dodgy Vote Leave claims to be kept in the public's minds.
    Why a "big mistake"?

    Vanity candidates will get derisory votes whoever they stand against. They'll be £500 down, but it's not like MI5 are going to swoop in and take them out. Might as well just enjoy the ride.

    Having said that, I expect he'd enjoy Surrey Heath more... at least Gove will probably be at the hustings, as he's not involved in the national campaign. It's also a nice area, whereas Maidenhead is a dump.
    Because it would be actively counter-productive politically, rather than merely potentially a waste of time and money.
    Well, not really. I shouldn't have thought Maidenhead will be in recount territory, so it's not like he's splitting the vote. And people outside Maidenhead and Guido's more head-banging fans don't give a damn about this bloke wherever he stands. Indeed, people inside Maidenhead will struggle to care.

    Gina Miller is the only non-politician hardcore Remainer who passes the test of anyone caring about. And she does indeed need to take care she isn't counterproductive in what she does, as there are some Express readers and Twitter warriors out there who might not bother voting, but would do if they thought it would upset her deeply.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568

    This will 30 mins PMQs will last nearly 60mins

    It's over after 58 MINUTES

    It's a record, beating Mrs May's previous record of 45-minutes, which was set in January and beat David Cameron's record of 40 minutes.

    May's bout was nearly twice the length scheduled for Prime Minister's Questions.


    http://news.sky.com/story/live-corbyn-v-may-in-last-pmqs-before-election-10851520?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,587
    Let's May off the hook doesn't it.
  • Mortimer said:

    ToryJim said:
    Hahaha.

    Unheralded levels of tin-earedness....
    Time to scrap the cocoa cans and the piece of string then, methinks.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,299
    I'm starting to feel sorry for Corbyn's spokesperson

    https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/857211534296199168
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    @paulwaugh

    Labour source just ruled out Corbyn taking part in any TV debates that don't feature Theresa May.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,853
    ToryJim said:

    I'm starting to feel sorry for Corbyn's spokesperson

    https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/857211534296199168

    "I see no tanks".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,890
    marke09 said:

    @paulwaugh

    Labour source just ruled out Corbyn taking part in any TV debates that don't feature Theresa May.

    How about a Labour leadership debate?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulhutcheon: Tv debate to be head-to-head between Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron twitter.com/paulwaugh/stat…
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Strange how Oddschacker in all its constituency markets insists on referring to the LibDems as just plain "Democrats". Do they sense, as I do, that this is just a temporary measure pending a likely further change of name when the 20+ elected MPs from the Yellow Team merge with around half or 80 MPs in number from the centre-left of the Labour Party to become the "Progressive Democrats" and as the second largest party, instantly become Her Majesty's Official Opposition in the HoC?

    I like the idea, Mr. Putney, but 20+ Lib Dems elected on 8th June seems a tad optimistic.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    ToryJim said:

    I'm starting to feel sorry for Corbyn's spokesperson

    https://twitter.com/adambienkov/status/857211534296199168

    wait what?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2017
  • Scott_P said:
    Yes. No deal IS a bad deal (in fact a terrible deal). It's a deal to trade on pretty restrictive WTO terms with a bloc that isn't some trivial backwater, but rather makes up the lion's share of our total trade, both imports and exports.
    Best get used to the idea, old chap, and plan accordingly if your business takes you into Europe. The powers that be in the EU seem determined to try to punish us for daring to go our own way because, sadly, they are frightened that other countries might do the same.

    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
    Yes, that's about right, HL. The UK will certainly not starve or go bankrupt, it will just trade on worse terms than it did within the EU. How much worse depends on how the negotiations go, which of course is in turn partly dependent on how the EU feels about things.

    I doubt it will wilfully adopt a punitive attitude but that's up to them. When we signed the Article 50 letter we committed to coming out regardless. Doesn't matter if the EU is reasonable, or knuckle-headed about it. We're coming out whatever.

    In practice I expect the EU will be fairly reasonable if only because it will perceive it to be in its interest to be so, but if it perceives that interest to include an element of punishment, we can hardly complain. It's what we voted for, or 52% of us at least.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,587
    Scott_P said:

    @paulhutcheon: Tv debate to be head-to-head between Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron twitter.com/paulwaugh/stat…

    That'll be box office gold.....

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,853
    Scott_P said:

    @paulhutcheon: Tv debate to be head-to-head between Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron twitter.com/paulwaugh/stat…

    Wow, that'll get the crowds in.

    Here are two people that most of the country won't be able to vote for or won't be interested in....
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited April 2017
    calum said:
    How many see the original vs how many see the correction? How many care? How many votes would change as a result of the 'exposure'?

    Maybe a mistake, maybe not.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited April 2017
    ------ Cancelled -------
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607

    Scott_P said:

    @paulhutcheon: Tv debate to be head-to-head between Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron twitter.com/paulwaugh/stat…

    That'll be box office gold.....

    Read it and weep Eastenders/Corry :)
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Scott_P said:

    @paulhutcheon: Tv debate to be head-to-head between Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron twitter.com/paulwaugh/stat…

    That'll be box office gold.....
    Farron: "You’ve overplayed your hand and now suffering the backlash of an angry nation".
    Sturgeon: “Turnip”.

    Repeat.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,853

    Scott_P said:

    @paulhutcheon: Tv debate to be head-to-head between Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron twitter.com/paulwaugh/stat…

    That'll be box office gold.....
    Farron: "You’ve overplayed your hand and now suffering the backlash of an angry nation".
    Sturgeon: “Turnip”.

    Repeat.
    Malc is Mrs Sturge and I claim my five pounds....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    May is crap part 6,735,780......

    Theresa May 'a more popular leader than Thatcher or Blair during their best years,' opinion poll reveals
    EXCLUSIVE: May’s lead matches 1983 landslide which saw Thatcher win a 144-seat majority


    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-with-huge-poll-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-poll-reveals-a3524136.html

    What do voters know, anyway.......
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,385
    edited April 2017

    Scott_P said:


    Best get used to the idea, old chap, and plan accordingly if your business takes you into Europe. The powers that be in the EU seem determined to try to punish us for daring to go our own way because, sadly, they are frightened that other countries might do the same.

    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
    Yes, that's about right, HL. The UK will certainly not starve or go bankrupt, it will just trade on worse terms than it did within the EU. How much worse depends on how the negotiations go, which of course is in turn partly dependent on how the EU feels about things.

    I doubt it will wilfully adopt a punitive attitude but that's up to them. When we signed the Article 50 letter we committed to coming out regardless. Doesn't matter if the EU is reasonable, or knuckle-headed about it. We're coming out whatever.

    In practice I expect the EU will be fairly reasonable if only because it will perceive it to be in its interest to be so, but if it perceives that interest to include an element of punishment, we can hardly complain. It's what we voted for, or 52% of us at least.
    .

    The EU will do a trade deal that maximises the economic benefit for them and minimises the benefit for the UK. That's the reality of a small country doing a deal with a big one.

    There is plenty of UK business they will have their eye on attracting to the continent and I'm sure they'll negotiate with that in mind.

    The euroskeptics have spent years bashing the EU over the head so I'm sure there will be plenty of EU leaders who will approach the deal with a large degree of schadenfreude.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    Seems Tim Farron doesn't want David Ward as a LD candidate. that may get rid of the anti-semite. Next the homophob....oh wait...tricky..
  • ------ Cancelled -------
    My Preciousssss
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017

    Scott_P said:
    Yes. No deal IS a bad deal (in fact a terrible deal). It's a deal to trade on pretty restrictive WTO terms with a bloc that isn't some trivial backwater, but rather makes up the lion's share of our total trade, both imports and exports.
    Best get used to the idea, old chap, and plan accordingly if your business takes you into Europe. The powers that be in the EU seem determined to try to punish us for daring to go our own way because, sadly, they are frightened that other countries might do the same.

    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
    It is not a matter of punishment. The EU has consistently said that Brexit is punishment enough, and also that Brexit means Brexit. The only Brexit is hard Brexit.

    These articles and series of tweets cover the ground well, including a review of all public pronouncements by the EU, who make a policy of open negotiations rather than Mays "pig in a poke" policy:

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/857143763105394688
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    MTimT said:

    calum said:
    How many see the original vs how many see the correction? How many care? How many votes would change as a result of the 'exposure'?

    Maybe a mistake, maybe not.
    I think the accurate version is just as powerful - no need to exaggerate ! - The SCON have also being using sub-samples in their literature !!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    felix said:

    Seems Tim Farron doesn't want David Ward as a LD candidate. that may get rid of the anti-semite. Next the homophob....oh wait...tricky..

    Still doing your partisan smearing I see .
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,058
    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulhutcheon: Tv debate to be head-to-head between Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron twitter.com/paulwaugh/stat…

    Wow, that'll get the crowds in.

    Here are two people that most of the country won't be able to vote for or won't be interested in....
    Pointless... Name the amount of times Sturgeon will say Tories/Austerity (with accent).
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607

    felix said:

    Seems Tim Farron doesn't want David Ward as a LD candidate. that may get rid of the anti-semite. Next the homophob....oh wait...tricky..

    Still doing your partisan smearing I see .
    Still think older Tory voters must have Alzheimers?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,097
    Mark - do you want to see David Ward continue as LD candidate?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,058
    calum said:
    Bless, you have only just discovered those pesky barcharts on election literature..... Personally I blame the Libdems for this....
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited April 2017
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    I wonder if they are keeping the Secret Indyref2 plans on the Secret Oilfields where they hide the Whisky Export Duty?

    Ruth Davidson: Nicola Sturgeon must reveal her secret indy ref 2 plan before general election

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/ruth-davidson-nicola-sturgeon-must-reveal-secret-indy-ref-2/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,612
    Farron v Sturgeon - a fishfinger vs an old trout.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    The owners of the song ding dong the witch is back will be counting on extra royalties in the next few years I suspect.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    Slugger O'Toole on the Brexit Trilemma and the reapplication of Mona's Law (Tales of the City) to contemporary politics:

    https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/04/25/brexit-in-the-short-term-re-engineers-the-environment-around-scotlands-political-trilemma/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    fitalass said:

    calum said:
    Bless, you have only just discovered those pesky barcharts on election literature..... Personally I blame the Libdems for this....
    The chart to use is max{ln(Poll score/10),0)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    fitalass said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulhutcheon: Tv debate to be head-to-head between Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron twitter.com/paulwaugh/stat…

    Wow, that'll get the crowds in.

    Here are two people that most of the country won't be able to vote for or won't be interested in....
    Pointless... Name the amount of times Sturgeon will say Tories/Austerity (with accent).
    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgoen/status/856589811171373057
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,301

    May is crap part 6,735,780......

    Theresa May 'a more popular leader than Thatcher or Blair during their best years,' opinion poll reveals
    EXCLUSIVE: May’s lead matches 1983 landslide which saw Thatcher win a 144-seat majority


    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-with-huge-poll-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-poll-reveals-a3524136.html

    What do voters know, anyway.......

    The alternatives.

    That's all that matters.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Help please advice needed. PENSIONS:

    My dad is 58 years old, he has three pension pots .

    One with Zurich which is worth X amount but he is not making any more contributions with them.

    One with his employer that is managed by ageon.

    and the third the state pension ofcourse.

    Question is he wants to take the 25% tax free lump sum available to people over 55's. Can he get 25% tax free from all three including the government one or only from the zurich and ageon one's. Your help is much appreciated.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,058

    I wonder if they are keeping the Secret Indyref2 plans on the Secret Oilfields where they hide the Whisky Export Duty?

    Ruth Davidson: Nicola Sturgeon must reveal her secret indy ref 2 plan before general election

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/ruth-davidson-nicola-sturgeon-must-reveal-secret-indy-ref-2/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    After a year of Nicola Sturgeon shouting that Scotland wants to remain as a member of the EU, now her MPs are signing pledges to keep Scotland out of the EU.

    The Courier - SNP MPs sign fishing pledge that would keep Scotland out of the EU

    "SNP MPs have been accused of “hypocrisy” on Europe after signing a pledge that would protect fishermen by keeping Scotland out of the EU.

    Politicians including Mike Weir, the Angus MP and party’s chief whip, and Banff and Buchan MP Eilidh Whiteford backed a campaign to keep the country free of Common Fisheries Policy rules, a cornerstone of Brussels rules."
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,775
    felix said:

    murali_s said:

    Scott_P said:
    No deal would be catastrophic. Everyone bar a few right-wing nutters, both here and outside acknowledge this.
    May needed to call a snap election because
    1. she may well have had to have a mini-election anyway if charges are brought over 2015 election expenses - and may have lost her majority.
    2. once it becomes clear what Brexit means she may become rather unpopular.
    and maybe (hopefully)
    3. she wants to be able to compromise with the EU and can't while she's beholden to some extreme Brexiteers for her slim majority.
    Spot on with point 3 - the surest way to get a deal that isn't too bad is with the May backed by a decent majority.
    I had thought this too but i think it depends on who the new Tory MPs are. It seems as though some remainers are not standing again? And are Tory remainers more vulnerable to lib Dems taking their seats... And will Tories do better in Brexit land? Do we think the new crop will be compromising remainers... Or leavers emboldened by the prospect of Brexit?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    rkrkrk said:

    Do we think the new crop will be compromising remainers... Or leavers emboldened by the prospect of Brexit?

    The new crop will do exactly what May tells them to do.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    edited April 2017
    nunu said:

    Help please advice needed. PENSIONS:

    My dad is 58 years old, he has three pension pots .

    One with Zurich which is worth X amount but he is not making any more contributions with them.

    One with his employer that is managed by ageon.

    and the third the state pension ofcourse.

    Question is he wants to take the 25% tax free lump sum available to people over 55's. Can he get 25% tax free from all three including the government one or only from the zurich and ageon one's. Your help is much appreciated.

    There is no tax free lump sum with the state pension. He can get the lump sum from the others (assuming they are defined contribution/money purchase) by going into flexible drawdown (or by buying an annuity) at age 55, or later.

    He will however need to talk to his employer (or their managers) about that scheme, since it will depend on its normal retirement age and what rules it has about early payment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 32,220
    Sean_F said:

    Baxtering these figures, and Panelbase's for Scotland, gives the Conservatives 420 seats, and 156 for Labour.

    Putting wheels on my granny makes her a wheelbarrow
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Prodicus said:

    Corbynista Bouattia ousted from NUS chair. Straw in the wind.

    Anti-semitic bigot. Good riddance.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    Putting wheels on my granny makes her a wheelbarrow

    How many turnips can she carry?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    Baxtering these figures, and Panelbase's for Scotland, gives the Conservatives 420 seats, and 156 for Labour.

    Putting wheels on my granny makes her a wheelbarrow
    That's not quite what the grafitti in my local says ...
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:


    Best get used to the idea, old chap, and plan accordingly if your business takes you into Europe. The powers that be in the EU seem determined to try to punish us for daring to go our own way because, sadly, they are frightened that other countries might do the same.

    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
    Yes, that's about right, HL. The UK will certainly not starve or go bankrupt, it will just trade on worse terms than it did within the EU. How much worse depends on how the negotiations go, which of course is in turn partly dependent on how the EU feels about things.

    I doubt it will wilfully adopt a punitive attitude but that's up to them. When we signed the Article 50 letter we committed to coming out regardless. Doesn't matter if the EU is reasonable, or knuckle-headed about it. We're coming out whatever.

    In practice I expect the EU will be fairly reasonable if only because it will perceive it to be in its interest to be so, but if it perceives that interest to include an element of punishment, we can hardly complain. It's what we voted for, or 52% of us at least.
    .

    The EU will do a trade deal that maximises the economic benefit for them and minimises the benefit for the UK. That's the reality of a small country doing a deal with a big one.

    There is plenty of UK business they will have their eye on attracting to the continent and I'm sure they'll negotiate with that in mind.

    The euroskeptics have spent years bashing the EU over the head so I'm sure there will be plenty of EU leaders who will approach the deal with a large degree of schadenfreude.
    A small country that pays €12bn into its budget each year, is its second largest economy, its second largest defence spender and which hosts its biggest financial centre. Yup, we've no leverage at all.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    malcolmg said:

    Sean_F said:

    Baxtering these figures, and Panelbase's for Scotland, gives the Conservatives 420 seats, and 156 for Labour.

    Putting wheels on my granny makes her a wheelbarrow
    What's your projection for Scotland Malc ?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @FoxInSox

    Fair go, Doc, I have long taken the view that leaving the EU would mean a reversion to WTO terms (as it has now become) and have never felt frightened by that fact. For me this is a political not an economic decision. Others, maybe including yourself, will disagree.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    calum said:

    Back at TM's day job !

    Isn't that 'winning the general election'?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 32,220
    MTimT said:

    calum said:
    How many see the original vs how many see the correction? How many care? How many votes would change as a result of the 'exposure'?

    Maybe a mistake, maybe not.
    Tell it as it is Calum, usual blatant Tory lies , they are not the NASTY party for nothing. They would steal their grannies false teeth and blame it on someone else. You just cannot trust them on anything other than they will try to take every penny you have by foul means.
  • JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:


    Best get used to the idea, old chap, and plan accordingly if your business takes you into Europe. The powers that be in the EU seem determined to try to punish us for daring to go our own way because, sadly, they are frightened that other countries might do the same.

    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
    Yes, that's about right, HL. The UK will certainly not starve or go bankrupt, it will just trade on worse terms than it did within the EU. How much worse depends on how the negotiations go, which of course is in turn partly dependent on how the EU feels about things.

    I doubt it will wilfully adopt a punitive attitude but that's up to them. When we signed the Article 50 letter we committed to coming out regardless. Doesn't matter if the EU is reasonable, or knuckle-headed about it. We're coming out whatever.

    In practice I expect the EU will be fairly reasonable if only because it will perceive it to be in its interest to be so, but if it perceives that interest to include an element of punishment, we can hardly complain. It's what we voted for, or 52% of us at least.
    .

    The EU will do a trade deal that maximises the economic benefit for them and minimises the benefit for the UK. That's the reality of a small country doing a deal with a big one.

    There is plenty of UK business they will have their eye on attracting to the continent and I'm sure they'll negotiate with that in mind.

    The euroskeptics have spent years bashing the EU over the head so I'm sure there will be plenty of EU leaders who will approach the deal with a large degree of schadenfreude.
    That may be so, David, or maybe not. We just don't know and we won't know for a while yet.

    What we do know is that whatever they offer, our Government will take it, because it feels obliged to enact the result of the referendum. Whether that is wise is another question, but it is going to happen.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    malcolmg said:

    MTimT said:

    calum said:
    How many see the original vs how many see the correction? How many care? How many votes would change as a result of the 'exposure'?

    Maybe a mistake, maybe not.
    Tell it as it is Calum, usual blatant Tory lies , they are not the NASTY party for nothing. They would steal their grannies false teeth and blame it on someone else. You just cannot trust them on anything other than they will try to take every penny you have by foul means.
    & try and sell them back to her !
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,568
    Scottish Subsample Klaxon Alert!!!

    (Base size 110 - MOE ±12)

    Con: 36
    Lab: 17
    SNP: 41

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/pm-april-2017-tables.pdf
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    Good afternoon, everyone.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,853

    Scottish Subsample Klaxon Alert!!!

    (Base size 110 - MOE ±12)

    Con: 36
    Lab: 17
    SNP: 41

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/pm-april-2017-tables.pdf

    Woah.

    How's that Indyref2 going, Nicky?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    Tories now 3/1 to take Norwich South from Clive Lewis thanks to TSE:

    https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Mortimer said:

    Scottish Subsample Klaxon Alert!!!

    (Base size 110 - MOE ±12)

    Con: 36
    Lab: 17
    SNP: 41

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/pm-april-2017-tables.pdf

    Woah.

    How's that Indyref2 going, Nicky?
    If the SNP came 2nd to the Tories I wouldn't stop laughing for the rest of the year.
    Improbable but delicious to imagine.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    Mr. P, I think a debate between Sturgeon, Farron, the Fish Finger, and Archbishop Nuttall could be entertaining.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @callummay: Tim Farron has sacked David Ward say the Lib Dems
This discussion has been closed.