@paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"
That labour source is right.
I don't like the guy. I won't be voting for him, partly because I agree he'd be a threat to national security. But......
Jo Cox.
As home sec and now PM, she's read the intel on the far right, she knows the language and rhetoric the tommy mair types use. And - even if she doesn't care in the slightest for their support - she knows they're swinging behind her right now. Every flag-tattood, skinhead nutjob is listening to what she's saying and cheering her on in this election. A few of them are out to cause trouble and feel empowered.
We shoot terrorists. That's what we do.
What do we do to terrorist sympathizers?
The use of that phrase in parliament - by the prime minister - directed at the leader of the opposition - less than a year after one of his own MP's was murdered by a terrorist and just a month after a terrorist attempted to murder as many civilians, police and politicians as possible - absolutely discredited the office of the Prime Minister.
Well done, Pong.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
I hope you haven't lost someone you knew to the IRA, but if you had, you might feel differently.
Just as well the Conservatives weren't negotiating secretly with the IRA in the past ....
Oooppps ....
There are clear differences from what Corbyn did and secret negotiations to end a conflict. May should not have said what she said, but that comparison, which Corbyn himself makes, is unsound.
The "soft vote" stuff is tosh, I think. The FN had the highest certainty six weeks out, and suffered the greatest fall. The same is true of the PVV in the Dutch elections.
Sunil - my sincere condolences. I was returning from two weeks holiday in Chamonix on the overnight car sleeper with my wife and three children on the 8th August 1980 and on arrival in Calais I did not have time to phone home and decided to do so once I had landed in the UK.
My Mother answered the phone to ask where I was and said that my Father had been taken ill last night. I asked her if he was in hospital and she replied no - he died suddenly in my arms. I was absolutely devastated and drove home with my family in absolute bits.
I will never forget the deep sense of loss and that I had not been with him but his love for us all lives on in our hearts and minds and while it takes a period of mourning the happy memories will abide with you forever.
All I will say about Theresa May's comment about Corbyn and terrorism, if you're offended by that, you might want to give the next few weeks a miss.
That was just an hors d'oeuvres.
And you probably don't want to follow @GOsborneGenius, the artiste formerly known as tim, whose views on Corbyn and McDonnell make mine seem positively effusive.
Are there really parties that haven't produced a dodgy bar chart at some point. I know the LDs seem the most prevalent with them, but they're practically a beloved tradition at this point.
The Lib Dems started the traditional, but since then pretty much every other party has followed suit
I'm hoping for some epic Lib Dem bar charts this time out, since the numbers need heavy massaging following the 2015 drubbing.
One I'll be disappointed not to see is "Here's how you voted last time!*"
All I will say about Theresa May's comment about Corbyn and terrorism, if you're offended by that, you might want to give the next few weeks a miss.
That was just an hors d'oeuvres.
And you probably don't want to follow @GOsborneGenius, the artiste formerly known as tim, whose views on Corbyn and McDonnell make mine seem positively effusive.
the one about McDonnell and Warrington bombing being perhaps the worst/sharpest
@paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"
That labour source is right.
I don't like the guy. I won't be voting for him, partly because I agree he'd be a threat to national security. But......
Jo Cox.
As home sec and now PM, she's read the intel on the far right, she knows the language and rhetoric the tommy mair types use. And - even if she doesn't care in the slightest for their support - she knows they're swinging behind her right now. Every flag-tattood, skinhead nutjob is listening to what she's saying and cheering her on in this election. A few of them are out to cause trouble and feel empowered.
We shoot terrorists. That's what we do.
What do we do to terrorist sympathizers?
The use of that phrase in parliament - by the prime minister - directed at the leader of the opposition - less than a year after one of his own MP's was murdered by a terrorist and just a month after a terrorist attempted to murder as many civilians, police and politicians as possible - absolutely discredited the office of the Prime Minister.
Sorry but are we to self-censor the truth because some extremists may take it the wrong way?
The use of that phrase in Parliament against someone who was not a terrorist sympathiser would discredit the office yes, but not as much as someone who is a terrorist sympathiser getting the office would.
That Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser is the truth. He openly for decades sympathised with and supported the IRA and other terrorist organisations across the world. That he is called out for that does not discredit the office he's seeking.
ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.
I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.
Are there really parties that haven't produced a dodgy bar chart at some point. I know the LDs seem the most prevalent with them, but they're practically a beloved tradition at this point.
The Lib Dems started the traditional, but since then pretty much every other party has followed suit
I'm hoping for some epic Lib Dem bar charts this time out, since the numbers need heavy massaging following the 2015 drubbing.
One I'll be disappointed not to see is "Here's how you voted last time!*"
* [tiny print] 2010.
The best bar chart I ever saw was by York Tories, in some hopeless council ward were they were third last time.
The bar chart said the Tories were just behind Labour with the Lib Dems far behind.
It was on closer inspection the data in the bar chart was based on a council result in another part of York where the Tories had lost another seat on a 20% or something swing to Labour.
The Ipsos subsamples for London and the South are by far the best that the left has had to date. A huge over-inclusion of public sector workers in the unweighted sample, mind.
Corbyn's 'Best PM' ratings are also least bad here:
May vs Corbyn 'Most capable PM'
North (ex SC): +40 Midland: +47 South: +31 London: +15 Scotland: +27
Does suggest bloodbath in the Midlands.....
Yes.
Panelbase: Con 61 ICM: Con 59 Ipsos : Con 59 ComRes: Con 55 Survation: Con 46
Yougov have the Tories on 50 when combined with Wales.
@paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"
That labour source is right.
I don't like the guy. I won't be voting for him, partly because I agree he'd be a threat to national security. But......
Jo Cox.
As home sec and now PM, she's read the intel on the far right, she knows the language and rhetoric the tommy mair types use. And - even if she doesn't care in the slightest for their support - she knows they're swinging behind her right now. Every flag-tattood, skinhead nutjob is listening to what she's saying and cheering her on in this election. A few of them are out to cause trouble and feel empowered.
We shoot terrorists. That's what we do.
What do we do to terrorist sympathizers?
The use of that phrase in parliament - by the prime minister - directed at the leader of the opposition - less than a year after one of his own MP's was murdered by a terrorist and just a month after a terrorist attempted to murder as many civilians, police and politicians as possible - absolutely discredited the office of the Prime Minister.
I am sure Michael Farron attack will be worse.His attack on Ed Milliband in the 2015 GE went beyond politics to me.
All I will say about Theresa May's comment about Corbyn and terrorism, if you're offended by that, you might want to give the next few weeks a miss.
That was just an hors d'oeuvres.
You just know Corbyn will rise to the bait and give the nation an impassioned defence of the freedom fighters he's supported over the years.
Telling, wasn't it, that Corbyn made no attempt to deny the accusations put to him at PMQs. What a truly terrible endictment of the Labour party that they have this wretch as their so-called leader. I'm not saying that there aren't plenty of others on the Left who agree with his politics and world view - and his sympathies - but he is attempting to become the PM, not the head of some whack job far left outfit.
Even Andrew Neil looked and sounded embarrassed on TDP.
@paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"
That labour source is right.
I don't like the guy. I won't be voting for him, partly because I agree he'd be a threat to national security. But......
Jo Cox.
As home sec and now PM, she's read the intel on the far right, she knows the language and rhetoric the tommy mair types use. And - even if she doesn't care in the slightest for their support - she knows they're swinging behind her right now. Every flag-tattood, skinhead nutjob is listening to what she's saying and cheering her on in this election. A few of them are out to cause trouble and feel empowered.
We shoot terrorists. That's what we do.
What do we do to terrorist sympathizers?
The use of that phrase in parliament - by the prime minister - directed at the leader of the opposition - less than a year after one of his own MP's was murdered by a terrorist and just a month after a terrorist attempted to murder as many civilians, police and politicians as possible - absolutely discredited the office of the Prime Minister.
I am sure Michael Farron attack will be worse.His attack on Ed Milliband in the 2015 GE went beyond politics to me.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
Anybody not aware of their previous associations hasn't been paying much attention or doesn't give a stuff anyway.
It's storm in a teacup stuff but a salutary reminder that May isn't that great. She was a poor Home Secretary and if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
She had absolutely no need to go into that kind of territory. She's ahead by miles in the polls. She could go on a six week walking holiday now and still come back to the prospect of an overwhelming majority. She certainly doesn't need to blow dog-whistles for the kind of f*ckwit that did for Jo Cox and is apt to attach itself to any political Party that is imprudent enough to appear to give them encouragement.
1) There's not a terrorist he's met that he doesn't like 2) He doesn't sing the national anthem 3) He's earned money from Press TV, the official mouth piece of the Iranian government, who hang gays from cranes.
3) He's earned money from Press TV, the official mouth piece of the Iranian government, who hang gays from cranes.
The Lib Dems need to attack Labour hard on this kind of thing. There will be plenty of underhand tactics in the other direction as we've seen with the religious questioning that Farron's been getting.
@BBCEleanorG: @BBCPolitics ***BREAK*** David Ward tells me re suspension: It's all v strong leadership, macho stuff, I'm not sure what really it's based on though...
@BBCEleanorG: @BBCPolitics ... "I haven't been told in what way i'm not fit and why i'm not fit which is disappointing" says David Ward re being sacked by Farron
@callummay: "It's an attempt to stop supporters of the Palestinians getting into parliament" says David Ward. He denies being antisemitic
The Tory aim isn't to just win this general election, but to damage Labour so heavily, so they can't win the 2021/2022 GE.
Yes, they'll want to ensure that Labour don't get away with washing their hands of Corbyn and McDonnell once the dust has cleared. And quite rightly so.
North (ex SC): +40 Midland: +47 South: +31 London: +15 Scotland: +27
Does suggest bloodbath in the Midlands.....
It also suggests that it's in London where we can expect the campaign to have the greatest effect. There will be a lot of metropolitan left-leaning votes up for grabs over the next few weeks.
Good afternoon everyone, haven't posted since the end of the 2015 election, nice to see some familiar names. Has anyone mentioned the Scottish Surge yet!!
@paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"
That labour source is right.
I don't like the guy. I won't be voting for him, partly because I agree he'd be a threat to national security. But......
Jo Cox.
As home sec and now PM, she's read the intel on the far right, she knows the language and rhetoric the tommy mair types use. And - even if she doesn't care in the slightest for their support - she knows they're swinging behind her right now. Every flag-tattood, skinhead nutjob is listening to what she's saying and cheering her on in this election. A few of them are out to cause trouble and feel empowered.
We shoot terrorists. That's what we do.
What do we do to terrorist sympathizers?
The use of that phrase in parliament - by the prime minister - directed at the leader of the opposition - less than a year after one of his own MP's was murdered by a terrorist and just a month after a terrorist attempted to murder as many civilians, police and politicians as possible - absolutely discredited the office of the Prime Minister.
I am sure Michael Farron attack will be worse.His attack on Ed Milliband in the 2015 GE went beyond politics to me.
North (ex SC): +40 Midland: +47 South: +31 London: +15 Scotland: +27
Does suggest bloodbath in the Midlands.....
It also suggests that it's in London where we can expect the campaign to have the greatest effect. There will be a lot of metropolitan left-leaning votes up for grabs over the next few weeks.
Not to worry. They'll be outvoted by the rest of the country, like in the EU referendum.
Good afternoon everyone, haven't posted since the end of the 2015 election, nice to see some familiar names. Has anyone mentioned the Scottish Surge yet!!
Welcome back. It was the Scottish Tory Surge Klaxon that drew you back, wasn't it?
1) There's not a terrorist he's met that he doesn't like 2) He doesn't sing the national anthem 3) He's earned money from Press TV and Russia Today, the official mouth piece of the Iranian and Russian governments, who hang gays from cranes or tacitly encourage their torture.
North (ex SC): +40 Midland: +47 South: +31 London: +15 Scotland: +27
Does suggest bloodbath in the Midlands.....
It also suggests that it's in London where we can expect the campaign to have the greatest effect. There will be a lot of metropolitan left-leaning votes up for grabs over the next few weeks.
It's why I think Labour's headline figure of 24ish% nationally is very misleading. We've already seen their vote collapse in Wales and seen the Tories surge in Scotland with Labour still nowhere.
My guess is that the Labour vote will hold up very well in London and a few other metropolitan areas (Liverpool? Tyne & Wear?) but be decimated elsewhere. So Labour may well end up on around 24% of the vote nationally but end up with surprisingly few seats. I really don't think a Tory majority of +200 is impossible under this kind of scenario.
Condolences to Sunil, by the way. Your posts always make me smile, especially "be leave!" last year. Wishing you all the best.
Good afternoon everyone, haven't posted since the end of the 2015 election, nice to see some familiar names. Has anyone mentioned the Scottish Surge yet!!
No ones going to deny that ukip are in reverse and may well poll under 5%, but to try and say that's because "the Tories have killed them" is madness. It's because many of their big names have turned it in due to their objective being achieved.
If Corbyn resigns after next week's ass kicking - Tom W takes over pro tem - what impact, if any, on the polls?
I asked this on another forum earlier, I reckon that would be worth 50+ seats to Labour as so much of the general public's dislike of Labour seems to stem from him. It puts me off betting on seat numbers/percentages as, if Corbyn sees the writing on the wall in May and quits for the sake of the party, whilst Labour will still lose badly, it will materially effect these markets.
If I knew Corbyn was definitely staying, I would be betting Labour sub 120 seats
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
As I wrote the other day (about Labour, but also applies to UKIP) there will come a time when May's enemies stop destroying themselves and she has to do more than simply step over their fallen bodies.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
Could 2017, or rather 2015, be the start of a 'democratic' one-party state to beat all world records? To name but two examples Sweden's SDP and South Africa's National Party both governed for unbroken periods of over 40 years.
Agreed, one of them is a tiny bit more democratic than the other one. But Sweden went from 1932 to 1976 with regular 'elections' but no change of govt. Why not the UK?
We also have FPTP to swell the governing party's majority of seats. Sweden achieved this with PR.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
Yes, those are ratings, Carlotta, and include the views of many who care and understand a good deal less about politics than you, me and most who post on this august Site.
If you want a discussion of the true merits of these Leaders this would be quite a good place to have one, but it would be a long thread and might not reflect unrestrained adulation of the current PM.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
Yes, those are ratings, Carlotta, and include the views of many who care and understand a good deal less about politics than you, me and most who post on this august Site.
They're also the views of the people who matter.....the voter....
North (ex SC): +40 Midland: +47 South: +31 London: +15 Scotland: +27
Does suggest bloodbath in the Midlands.....
It also suggests that it's in London where we can expect the campaign to have the greatest effect. There will be a lot of metropolitan left-leaning votes up for grabs over the next few weeks.
It's why I think Labour's headline figure of 24ish% nationally is very misleading. We've already seen their vote collapse in Wales and seen the Tories surge in Scotland with Labour still nowhere.
My guess is that the Labour vote will hold up very well in London and a few other metropolitan areas (Liverpool? Tyne & Wear?) but be decimated elsewhere. So Labour may well end up on around 24% of the vote nationally but end up with surprisingly few seats. I really don't think a Tory majority of +200 is impossible under this kind of scenario.
Condolences to Sunil, by the way. Your posts always make me smile, especially "be leave!" last year. Wishing you all the best.
Apart from elected politicians, all the Labour people I know in London are voting LibDem this time. It must just be the circles I mix in?
@BBCEleanorG: @BBCPolitics ***BREAK*** David Ward tells me re suspension: It's all v strong leadership, macho stuff, I'm not sure what really it's based on though...
@BBCEleanorG: @BBCPolitics ... "I haven't been told in what way i'm not fit and why i'm not fit which is disappointing" says David Ward re being sacked by Farron
@callummay: "It's an attempt to stop supporters of the Palestinians getting into parliament" says David Ward. He denies being antisemitic
He does seem to be a classic of the 'I just criticise israel' crowd of anti semites, who use that as cover and pretend everyone who criticises them doesn't want them criticising Israel (and never mind if the person criticising them does in fact criticise Israel)
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
Could 2017, or rather 2015, be the start of a 'democratic' one-party state to beat all world records? To name but two examples Sweden's SDP and South Africa's National Party both governed for unbroken periods of over 40 years.
Agreed, one of them is a tiny bit more democratic than the other one. But Sweden went from 1932 to 1976 with regular 'elections' but no change of govt. Why not the UK?
We also have FPTP to swell the governing party's majority of seats. Sweden achieved this with PR.
ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.
I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.
Sorry to hear that news Sunil.
Happened to me just 3 weeks when my Dad passed away three days short of his 76th b'day. In many ways I am also still in denial and we all grieve differently I guess but make sure you look after your Mum please.
My condolences, Cap'n Doc, to you and your mum. It can be a real bugger when a major plank in our lives is suddenly removed. At times of such loss there can be no words that bring comfort from a stranger but if you'll accept advice; let the tears fall, as they must, and then, denying nothing and taking your love and memories with you, shout, "Yo ho, my hearties, bring me that horizon!"
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.
I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.
Sorry to hear that news Sunil.
Happened to me just 3 weeks when my Dad passed away three days short of his 76th b'day. In many ways I am also still in denial and we all grieve differently I guess but make sure you look after your Mum please.
ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.
I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.
Sorry to hear that news Sunil.
Happened to me just 3 weeks when my Dad passed away three days short of his 76th b'day. In many ways I am also still in denial and we all grieve differently I guess but make sure you look after your Mum please.
All I will say about Theresa May's comment about Corbyn and terrorism, if you're offended by that, you might want to give the next few weeks a miss.
That was just an hors d'oeuvres.
Finally just watched PMQs, Mrs May seemed delighted to be there and looking forward to the campaign. Smart to quote the bit about the "terrorist sympathiser" rather than make the accusation herself, but she will know people who were affected by Brighton and those accusations are only going to get a lot louder in the next six weeks.
Well done to Tim Farron for (eventually) seeing sense over David Ward. One Opposition leader getting trolled for supporting antisemites is more than enough.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
I'm not sure those figures are directly comparable because there was a more credible/visible third option during both of the previous periods.
It's an 'either/or' question.
What data do you have that supports the contention that May's ratings are good only because her opponent's are bad - rather than contradicts it?
That's not my contention. My contention is that the figures are misleading because it's more of a binary question than it was in the other cases. In other words her rating is flattered by the weakness of Farron.
Not May or Corbyn: 16% Not Thatcher or Foot: 36% Not Blair or Hague: 36%
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
Anybody not aware of their previous associations hasn't been paying much attention or doesn't give a stuff anyway.
It's storm in a teacup stuff but a salutary reminder that May isn't that great. She was a poor Home Secretary and if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
She had absolutely no need to go into that kind of territory. She's ahead by miles in the polls. She could go on a six week walking holiday now and still come back to the prospect of an overwhelming majority. She certainly doesn't need to blow dog-whistles for the kind of f*ckwit that did for Jo Cox and is apt to attach itself to any political Party that is imprudent enough to appear to give them encouragement.
I disagree. I think she absolutely needed to 'go into that kind of territory', as you put it. This is politics, unfair, brutal, dirty, uncompromising, and it's what has to be done in a GE campaign. Corbyn and McDonnell have to be exposed for what they are, and I disagree with you that most people know about it, or don't care about it.
It's not the job of a party leader to go easy on their opposite number, especially in our system where there is usually only one winner. There will be plenty more of this to come, and it will be richly deserved.
The death of parent(s) is something we all have to go through and in My Dad's case we kind of knew time was short as he had stage 4 Lung Cancer (he still manged to live a full life for 18 months after diagnosis) but still doesn't make it easier.
PS - Just to say that the doctors and nurses (from the NHS and the various cancer charities) that looked after my Dad were amazing.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
I'm not sure those figures are directly comparable because there was a more credible/visible third option during both of the previous periods.
It's an 'either/or' question.
What data do you have that supports the contention that May's ratings are good only because her opponent's are bad - rather than contradicts it?
That's not my contention. My contention is that the figures are misleading because it's more of a binary question than it was in the other cases. In other words her rating is flattered by the weakness of Farron.
Not May or Corbyn: 16% Not Thatcher or Foot: 36% Not Blair or Hague: 36%
ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.
I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.
Sorry to hear that news Sunil.
Happened to me just 3 weeks when my Dad passed away three days short of his 76th b'day. In many ways I am also still in denial and we all grieve differently I guess but make sure you look after your Mum please.
Sorry to hear that; and @Sunil sorry to hear of your loss too. Happened to me 3 years ago.
North (ex SC): +40 Midland: +47 South: +31 London: +15 Scotland: +27
Does suggest bloodbath in the Midlands.....
It also suggests that it's in London where we can expect the campaign to have the greatest effect. There will be a lot of metropolitan left-leaning votes up for grabs over the next few weeks.
It's why I think Labour's headline figure of 24ish% nationally is very misleading. We've already seen their vote collapse in Wales and seen the Tories surge in Scotland with Labour still nowhere.
My guess is that the Labour vote will hold up very well in London and a few other metropolitan areas (Liverpool? Tyne & Wear?) but be decimated elsewhere. So Labour may well end up on around 24% of the vote nationally but end up with surprisingly few seats. I really don't think a Tory majority of +200 is impossible under this kind of scenario.
Condolences to Sunil, by the way. Your posts always make me smile, especially "be leave!" last year. Wishing you all the best.
Apart from elected politicians, all the Labour people I know in London are voting LibDem this time. It must just be the circles I mix in?
My social feeds are split into two - the hardcore Marxists who are still loyal Corbynites and the "Europe is everything, that's why I can no longer support Labour and am voting Lib Dem" crowd. For me it's pretty much a 50/50 split but that's purely anecdotal and YMMV.
Worth pointing out that while my friendship group is very London and left wing, it's also 99% middle class and contains hardly anyone from a BAME background.
I think the client vote of people employed in the public sector + the hardcore corbynites + people dependent on benefits + BAME vote will hold things down for Labour and other inner city areas. Everything else is up for grabs.
ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.
I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.
Sorry to hear that news Sunil.
Happened to me just 3 weeks when my Dad passed away three days short of his 76th b'day. In many ways I am also still in denial and we all grieve differently I guess but make sure you look after your Mum please.
Sorry to hear that; and @Sunil sorry to hear of your loss too. Happened to me 3 years ago.
Thanks Mr Z - I know we cross swords on here but hopefully all in "banter mode" and nothing is meant personally.
All I will say about Theresa May's comment about Corbyn and terrorism, if you're offended by that, you might want to give the next few weeks a miss.
That was just an hors d'oeuvres.
Finally just watched PMQs, Mrs May seemed delighted to be there and looking forward to the campaign. Smart to quote the bit about the "terrorist sympathiser" rather than make the accusation herself, but she will know people who were affected by Brighton and those accusations are only going to get a lot louder in the next six weeks.
Well done to Tim Farron for (eventually) seeing sense over David Ward. One Opposition leader getting trolled for supporting antisemites is more than enough.
David Ward's been a nasty piece of work for a long time, and he should have been kicked out the LDs years ago.
Just to balance the books, I think David Tredinnick of the Conservative Party is an embarrassment to the human race. What's staggering is that his fellow MPs elected him to the Health Select Committee. This is a man who believes in homeopathy, astrology, and that the MMR vaccine causes autism.
I'm sure there's some high up Labour member who I feel equally strongly about. Perhaps someone who's actively support the murder of democratically elected British politicians... But I can't remember.
Comments
That was just an hors d'oeuvres.
https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/857195587548192768
Corbyn is better rated than Hague and Foot were vs Blair and Thatcher
What do you think the Tories will do to someone with such a rich back catalogue as Corbyn and McDonnell.
My Mother answered the phone to ask where I was and said that my Father had been taken ill last night. I asked her if he was in hospital and she replied no - he died suddenly in my arms. I was absolutely devastated and drove home with my family in absolute bits.
I will never forget the deep sense of loss and that I had not been with him but his love for us all lives on in our hearts and minds and while it takes a period of mourning the happy memories will abide with you forever.
One I'll be disappointed not to see is "Here's how you voted last time!*"
* [tiny print] 2010.
The use of that phrase in Parliament against someone who was not a terrorist sympathiser would discredit the office yes, but not as much as someone who is a terrorist sympathiser getting the office would.
That Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser is the truth. He openly for decades sympathised with and supported the IRA and other terrorist organisations across the world. That he is called out for that does not discredit the office he's seeking.
#1 No change from 2015 except for 50% of UKIP vote shifting to Conservative
Conservatives gain 37 seats ( 32 lab, 3 LD, 1 SNP, 1 UKIP)
#2 No change from 2015 except for 66% of UKIP vote shifting to Conservative
Conservatives gain 50 seats ( 45 lab, 3 LD, 1 SNP, 1 UKIP)
I am more than happy to try optimistic scenarios for ANY party, upon request, but Baxter is best for most normal projections of course.
The bar chart said the Tories were just behind Labour with the Lib Dems far behind.
It was on closer inspection the data in the bar chart was based on a council result in another part of York where the Tories had lost another seat on a 20% or something swing to Labour.
Absolutely ingenious
Labour are squeemish about fighting back. Maybe that's honourable...
Liam Fox is in government for goodness sake...
Panelbase: Con 61
ICM: Con 59
Ipsos : Con 59
ComRes: Con 55
Survation: Con 46
Yougov have the Tories on 50 when combined with Wales.
The Tories polled 43 in the Midlands in 2015.
Even Andrew Neil looked and sounded embarrassed on TDP.
It's storm in a teacup stuff but a salutary reminder that May isn't that great. She was a poor Home Secretary and if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
She had absolutely no need to go into that kind of territory. She's ahead by miles in the polls. She could go on a six week walking holiday now and still come back to the prospect of an overwhelming majority. She certainly doesn't need to blow dog-whistles for the kind of f*ckwit that did for Jo Cox and is apt to attach itself to any political Party that is imprudent enough to appear to give them encouragement.
1) There's not a terrorist he's met that he doesn't like
2) He doesn't sing the national anthem
3) He's earned money from Press TV, the official mouth piece of the Iranian government, who hang gays from cranes.
2005 and 2015 made me feel a touch queasy if I'm honest.
Who ran 2010, and who ran 2005/15 ?
https://twitter.com/helenpidd/status/857233543428231168
@BBCEleanorG: @BBCPolitics ***BREAK*** David Ward tells me re suspension: It's all v strong leadership, macho stuff, I'm not sure what really it's based on though...
@BBCEleanorG: @BBCPolitics ... "I haven't been told in what way i'm not fit and why i'm not fit which is disappointing" says David Ward re being sacked by Farron
@callummay: "It's an attempt to stop supporters of the Palestinians getting into parliament" says David Ward. He denies being antisemitic
This is what the Tories managed in 23 second long ad.
Which was transmitted as YouTube ads that you can't click off after six seconds
I believe it will appearing as a Facebook promoted add as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99jclQAOT7I
Next question?
(Feeling feisty today.)
2010 Result: 22
2017 YG: 19
2017 Ipsos: 23
2017 Panelbase 20
2017 Survation 20
2017 ICM 15
2017 Comres 14
Not much has changed since you were last on. Ahem.
My guess is that the Labour vote will hold up very well in London and a few other metropolitan areas (Liverpool? Tyne & Wear?) but be decimated elsewhere. So Labour may well end up on around 24% of the vote nationally but end up with surprisingly few seats. I really don't think a Tory majority of +200 is impossible under this kind of scenario.
Condolences to Sunil, by the way. Your posts always make me smile, especially "be leave!" last year. Wishing you all the best.
Looks great.
If I knew Corbyn was definitely staying, I would be betting Labour sub 120 seats
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
Best PM
May / Corbyn: 61 / 23
Thatcher / Foot: 48 / 16
Blair / Hague: 52 / 12
As I wrote the other day (about Labour, but also applies to UKIP) there will come a time when May's enemies stop destroying themselves and she has to do more than simply step over their fallen bodies.
But not today.
EIGHT
Twickers definitely on.
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/general-election-results-2015
Agreed, one of them is a tiny bit more democratic than the other one. But Sweden went from 1932 to 1976 with regular 'elections' but no change of govt. Why not the UK?
We also have FPTP to swell the governing party's majority of seats. Sweden achieved this with PR.
If you want a discussion of the true merits of these Leaders this would be quite a good place to have one, but it would be a long thread and might not reflect unrestrained adulation of the current PM.
And why aren't you at Perth? By the way, I fancy Weapon Of Choice in the last. It's 22/1 with Ladbrokes and could easily run into a place.
London Only
Com Res: Con 44 Lab 32 LD 14 UKIP 7
You Gov: Con 42 Lab 33 LD 19 UKIP 3
Panelbase: Con 43 Lab 28 LD 20 UKIP 1
Survation: Con 32 Lab 32 LD 20 UKIP 15 (say no more)
Ipsos: Lab 40 Con 28 LD 23 UKIP 2 (phone poll)
What data do you have that supports the contention that May's ratings are good only because her opponent's are bad - rather than contradicts it?
"strong and stable"... not quite "safe and secure", but I'll go with it
Happened to me just 3 weeks when my Dad passed away three days short of his 76th b'day. In many ways I am also still in denial and we all grieve differently I guess but make sure you look after your Mum please.
It is only right that the public are made fully aware of his abhorrent views.
This idea of the 'nice but dim and misguided' Corbyn needs putting to bed.
Well done to Tim Farron for (eventually) seeing sense over David Ward. One Opposition leader getting trolled for supporting antisemites is more than enough.
Not May or Corbyn: 16%
Not Thatcher or Foot: 36%
Not Blair or Hague: 36%
It's not the job of a party leader to go easy on their opposite number, especially in our system where there is usually only one winner. There will be plenty more of this to come, and it will be richly deserved.
The death of parent(s) is something we all have to go through and in My Dad's case we kind of knew time was short as he had stage 4 Lung Cancer (he still manged to live a full life for 18 months after diagnosis) but still doesn't make it easier.
PS - Just to say that the doctors and nurses (from the NHS and the various cancer charities) that looked after my Dad were amazing.
Worth pointing out that while my friendship group is very London and left wing, it's also 99% middle class and contains hardly anyone from a BAME background.
I think the client vote of people employed in the public sector + the hardcore corbynites + people dependent on benefits + BAME vote will hold things down for Labour and other inner city areas. Everything else is up for grabs.
Just to balance the books, I think David Tredinnick of the Conservative Party is an embarrassment to the human race. What's staggering is that his fellow MPs elected him to the Health Select Committee. This is a man who believes in homeopathy, astrology, and that the MMR vaccine causes autism.
I'm sure there's some high up Labour member who I feel equally strongly about. Perhaps someone who's actively support the murder of democratically elected British politicians... But I can't remember.