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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first phone poll of the campaign has UKIP down to 4% and t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first phone poll of the campaign has UKIP down to 4% and the Tories at 49%
This morning, in the London Evening Standard, we have the first telephone poll of the general election campaign. The figures are very much in line with the other polls that we’ve seen in the last week.
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But never underestimate Corbyn's ability to cling on to the dying corpse he's leading.
https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/857186026896465920
https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/857188075616833536
Edited extra bit: almost as irksome as when I had to axe: "That's about as tempting an offer as a handjob from Edward Scissorhands."
Surely that'll make a bit of a mess of the paper?
Just begone, begone.
Matching scenes at the beginning and end of a story, often to show how things have changed through the course of the series, or to demonstrate that they haven't changed at all.
Be gone Corbyn, you are a national disgrace
From the Downing Street confidential files, 5th May 1983:
MT: So, my friend, it is the election next month.
JC: Yes.
MT: And you have managed to complete the first stage of your task: to gain the candidature for Islington North?
JC: Yes ma'am, overwhelmingly.
MT: Good, good. (Shuffles in her handbag and checks her makeup in a mirror). I called you in here to confirm you know the mission.
JC: I am to destroy the Labour party.
MT: Not destroy. Annihilate. Eradicate.
JC: But if I may, ma'am, how? I will be just one MP.
MT: Oh, do keep up JC! They said you were one of our brightest agents!
JC: It seems an impossible task ma'am. I'll be just one MP against many.
MT: Just one male MP, you mean. It's not as though Labour will ever elect a female leader!
(laughter)
MT: No, we are playing the long game. One of my predecessors put the current Labour leader in place, and he's doing a fine job in destroying his party. It's really a sterling job. Of course I've been helped by the deal I did with the General over that bit of nonsense last year. (winks)
(more laughter)
MT: No, we have to play the long game. As good as the present incumbent is, he's not performed well enough. The Labour Party will arise, and will become a power. We have plans to stifle their popularity: perhaps a war in a far-off country, perhaps over oil? How about Iraq? Yes, that'll do. We'll wait for a really popular Labour PM to come along, and drop the WMD-bomb. Not a real bomb, obviously.
JC: Not yet, ma'am!
(more laughter)
MT: And you will, of course, be against the war. You will be a figurehead of the far-left of the party, along with agent Benn. You'll bide your time, creeping amongst the shadows, building support. We all know what the far-left are like: the more stupid, the more implausible the policy, the more they like it!
JC: I've had an idea, ma'am. How about ballistic missile submarines without any missiles?
MT: Oh I say! That's rather excellent! Perhaps you are as bright as MI5 claim.
JC: Thank you, ma'am. So I wait, for what?
MT: For the moment when a popular Labour leader mucks up - with a little help from us, of course. You can help: undermine them; vote against them: the best thing is they'll expect you to do it!
(starts to file her claws)
MT: And then, at the right moment, strike! Go for the leadership! Become leader of the Labour party and make them unelectable! Destroy them! Annihilate them in Scotland! Obliterate them in Wales! Smash them in the cities! Make another Labour government an impossibility!
JC: Very good, ma'am. But how about the alliance?
MT: (laughs). Oh don't worry, we have a plan for them as well! The thing with the dog worked well, didn't it?
As soon as Corbyn gets out meeting people I'm fairly sure they'll no longer be in the mid-20s.
That note from the archives is really rather good. Thank you.
If Labour fall beneath 150 seats the Con majority is almost certainly over 175, you can currently get odds on Con Majority on Betfair:
175 - 199 at 8
200 - 224 at 11
225 - 250 at 10.5
Worth a punt? I've stuck a few quid on, just in case.
The combined Tory/UKIP is at c.45% and Sandwell voted over 66% to Leave.
If I were Tom Watson, I'd be very worried.
You can say what you like about Farage, he wasn't hopeless.
Just a knob.
I cannot see any result other than a conservative majority but accept caution is needed on it's size.
However, there must be a chance of a labour wipeout and if the move is copied in Scotland and Wales the Lib Dems may not make much headway
2015 - Lab 16.5k
UKIP 8.8k
Con 8.3k
Huge purple vote to eat into, Labour likely to decline.
Edited extra bit: anyway, must be off.
Labour are going to get hammered in middle England if these are repeated on June 8th.
Handful of seats in Birmingham, Leicester, Nottingham.
So they didn't get UKIP's votes.
Because it's Bollocks
You have UKIP voters voting for a PM who brought in gay marriage and will maintain international aid. But, she also treats them with respect and will deliver Brexit and immigration control, so they are happy to support her.
@steve_hawkes: Tim Farron looks like he'd rather go back to answering questions about gay sex
https://twitter.com/Ned_Donovan/status/857196048158216192
Carswell was the voice of the "it's not about immigration, it's about sovereignty" brigade. He, and others like him, have signalled "mission accomplished" and returned to the Tories or left the scene.
It is all, in Cameron's ill-advised phrase, "fruitcakes, loonies, and closet racists" now, albeit increasingly not that well closeted. Their time may come again, although I fervently hope not, but I just don't see how it can (in practice) be as anything other than the BNP in blazers - that's the path they've chosen collectively.
https://twitter.com/guidofawkes/status/857201292359462916