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  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Scott_P said:
    So just to be clear, it *is* the party leader's job?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Farron: "David Ward is unfit to represent the party and I have sacked him." Told ya..
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Approval Rating (net) among own VI - ie May among Con, Corbyn among Lab etc:

    May: +92
    Corbyn: +17
    Farron: +45
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Hours after saying he couldn't do anything to stop David Ward being a Lib Dem candidate, Tim Farron sacks David Ward.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    edited April 2017
    General question: I've put on many more (small) constituency bets than I have in the past. One or two are at silly odds, most are reasonable, and many of the odds have shortened dramatically.

    When other PBers are in that position (particularly in two horse race seats), do they keep the bet as is, or back the other party, to go all green?

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Tony, improbable indeed.

    Would be amusing, though.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Tony said:

    Mortimer said:

    Scottish Subsample Klaxon Alert!!!

    (Base size 110 - MOE ±12)

    Con: 36
    Lab: 17
    SNP: 41

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/pm-april-2017-tables.pdf

    Woah.

    How's that Indyref2 going, Nicky?
    If the SNP came 2nd to the Tories I wouldn't stop laughing for the rest of the year.
    Improbable but delicious to imagine.
    It would be a bit of a giggle - but in truth the Tories could be in the mid-20s & SNP in the low 50s.....
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Cream of the cream of the country's future intellectual cream. Creamy.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"

    That labour source is right.

    I don't like the guy. I won't be voting for him, partly because I agree he'd be a threat to national security. But......

    Jo Cox.

    As home sec and now PM, she's read the intel on the far right, she knows the language and rhetoric the tommy mair types use. And - even if she doesn't care in the slightest for their support - she knows they're swinging behind her right now. Every flag-tattood, skinhead nutjob is listening to what she's saying and cheering her on in this election. A few of them are out to cause trouble and feel empowered.

    We shoot terrorists. That's what we do.

    What do we do to terrorist sympathizers?

    The use of that phrase in parliament - by the prime minister - directed at the leader of the opposition - less than a year after one of his own MP's was murdered by a terrorist and just a month after a terrorist attempted to murder as many civilians, police and politicians as possible - absolutely discredited the office of the Prime Minister.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Hours after saying he couldn't do anything to stop David Ward being a Lib Dem candidate, Tim Farron sacks David Ward.

    Was that Tim Farron, or was it Theresa May?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Was that Tim Farron, or was it Theresa May?

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/857224824963424256
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Help please advice needed. PENSIONS:

    My dad is 58 years old, he has three pension pots .

    One with Zurich which is worth X amount but he is not making any more contributions with them.

    One with his employer that is managed by ageon.

    and the third the state pension ofcourse.

    Question is he wants to take the 25% tax free lump sum available to people over 55's. Can he get 25% tax free from all three including the government one or only from the zurich and ageon one's. Your help is much appreciated.

    There is no tax free lump sum with the state pension. He can get the lump sum from the others (assuming they are defined contribution/money purchase) by going into flexible drawdown (or by buying an annuity) at age 55, or later.

    He will however need to talk to his employer (or their managers) about that scheme, since it will depend on its normal retirement age and what rules it has about early payment.
    Shit, I'm old enough to be your dad ... :)
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    The Ipsos subsamples for London and the South are by far the best that the left has had to date. A huge over-inclusion of public sector workers in the unweighted sample, mind.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pong said:

    That labour source is right.

    She was quoting a website promoted by Dianne Abbot.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited April 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Was that Tim Farron, or was it Theresa May?

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/857224824963424256

    TBF, he didn't say he couldn't get rid of them...

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Regarding the IPSOS, Tories downweighted slightly, Labour upweighted, Tories all registered, 88% ! certain to vote, Labour 75%.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Hadn't seen this question before:

    Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify with the party as a whole.
    If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to the (LEADERS/POLICIES/PARTY) of the Party you intend voting for?


    Mean: LEADERS/POLICIES/PARTY

    Con: 3.8 / 3.4 / 2.7
    Lab: 2.4 / 4.0 / 3.0
    LD: 2.0 / 4.6 / 3.2

    So that Labour manifesto is going to be really important.....oh and May is really crap.....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Dr. Prasannan, I'm very sorry to hear that. My sympathies.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Sorry to hear that, Sunil.

    Kindest thoughts to you and your family.
  • Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"

    That labour source is right.

    I don't like the guy. I won't be voting for him, partly because I agree he'd be a threat to national security. But......

    Jo Cox.

    As home sec and now PM, she's read the intel on the far right, she knows the language and rhetoric the tommy mair types use. And - even if she doesn't care in the slightest for their support - she knows they're swinging behind her right now. Every flag-tattood, skinhead nutjob is listening to what she's saying and cheering her on in this election. A few of them are out to cause trouble and feel empowered.

    We shoot terrorists. That's what we do.

    What do we do to terrorist sympathizers?

    The use of that phrase in parliament - by the prime minister - directed at the leader of the opposition - less than a year after one of his own MP's was murdered by a terrorist and just a month after a terrorist attempted to murder as many civilians, police and politicians as possible - absolutely discredited the office of the Prime Minister.
    Well done, Pong.

    The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    You regularly hear the idea that new Conservative supporters might bottle it on the day. This suggests that isn't going to happen (and in fact the Conservatives have more scope to surprise on the upside):

    https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/857195329791418368
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited April 2017
    24% of Labour voters satisfied with Theresa May.
    36% of Labour voters dissatisfied with Jeremy Corbyn.

    Only 19% of Tories satisfied with Jeremy Corbyn, which means 19% listened to the question properly.
  • ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Sorry to hear the news Sunil
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Scott_P said:

    Pong said:

    That labour source is right.

    She was quoting a website promoted by Dianne Abbot.
    People forget (or don't know) May lost a fellow President of the Edmund Burke society to the Harrods bomb - Philip Geddes, journalist.
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Help please advice needed. PENSIONS:

    My dad is 58 years old, he has three pension pots .

    One with Zurich which is worth X amount but he is not making any more contributions with them.

    One with his employer that is managed by ageon.

    and the third the state pension ofcourse.

    Question is he wants to take the 25% tax free lump sum available to people over 55's. Can he get 25% tax free from all three including the government one or only from the zurich and ageon one's. Your help is much appreciated.

    There is no tax free lump sum with the state pension. He can get the lump sum from the others (assuming they are defined contribution/money purchase) by going into flexible drawdown (or by buying an annuity) at age 55, or later.

    He will however need to talk to his employer (or their managers) about that scheme, since it will depend on its normal retirement age and what rules it has about early payment.
    Some employers with defined benefit schemes are currently offering substantial enhancements to pension fund value in order to incentivise memebers to transfer out. My own offered a 47% enhancement - I've heard of a couple over 50%. They should insist on evidence that you have taken appropriate advice, so get a good IFA who will be prepare to negotiate hard. Essentially, he will be accepting risks on future returns and inflation currently carried by the employer and he needs to be fully compensated for this. There are other advantages to setting up a personal pension pot that the advisor can tell him about, but there will be annual fees.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Hours after saying he couldn't do anything to stop David Ward being a Lib Dem candidate, Tim Farron sacks David Ward.

    In theory and party constitution wise Farron cannot sack a parliamentary candidate nor in theory could a Conservative leader sack a Conservative parliamentary candidate but practice is different as is shown here and as Howard did with the candidate in Arundel in 2005 .
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:


    Best get used to the idea, old chap, and plan accordingly if your business takes you into Europe. The powers that be in the EU seem determined to try to punish us for daring to go our own way because, sadly, they are frightened that other countries might do the same.

    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
    Yes, that's about right, HL. The UK will certainly not starve or go bankrupt, it will just trade on worse terms than it did within the EU. How much worse depends on how the negotiations go, which of course is in turn partly dependent on how the EU feels about things.

    I doubt it will wilfully adopt a punitive attitude but that's up to them. When we signed the Article 50 letter we committed to coming out regardless. Doesn't matter if the EU is reasonable, or knuckle-headed about it. We're coming out whatever.

    In practice I expect the EU will be fairly reasonable if only because it will perceive it to be in its interest to be so, but if it perceives that interest to include an element of punishment, we can hardly complain. It's what we voted for, or 52% of us at least.
    .

    The EU will do a trade deal that maximises the economic benefit for them and minimises the benefit for the UK. That's the reality of a small country doing a deal with a big one.

    There is plenty of UK business they will have their eye on attracting to the continent and I'm sure they'll negotiate with that in mind.

    The euroskeptics have spent years bashing the EU over the head so I'm sure there will be plenty of EU leaders who will approach the deal with a large degree of schadenfreude.
    That may be so, David, or maybe not. We just don't know and we won't know for a while yet.

    What we do know is that whatever they offer, our Government will take it, because it feels obliged to enact the result of the referendum. Whether that is wise is another question, but it is going to happen.
    It seems that many are commenting on the Brexit negotiations as if it is solely a 'win-lose' set up. In many areas, it is a 'win-win', and overall, there is no reason per se why the overall result cannot be a 'win-win' because the EU and UK clearly place different values on many of the negotiating points, so there is plenty of room for arbitrage across these exchange rates.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039

    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Very sorry to hear your awful news, Sunil.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"

    That labour source is right.

    I don't like the guy. I won't be voting for him, partly because I agree he'd be a threat to national security. But......

    Jo Cox.

    As home sec and now PM, she's read the intel on the far right, she knows the language and rhetoric the tommy mair types use. And - even if she doesn't care in the slightest for their support - she knows they're swinging behind her right now. Every flag-tattood, skinhead nutjob is listening to what she's saying and cheering her on in this election. A few of them are out to cause trouble and feel empowered.

    We shoot terrorists. That's what we do.

    What do we do to terrorist sympathizers?

    The use of that phrase in parliament - by the prime minister - directed at the leader of the opposition - less than a year after one of his own MP's was murdered by a terrorist and just a month after a terrorist attempted to murder as many civilians, police and politicians as possible - absolutely discredited the office of the Prime Minister.
    Well done, Pong.

    The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
    I hope you haven't lost someone you knew to the IRA, but if you had, you might feel differently.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034



    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Sorry to hear the news Sunil
    Indeed, condolences, Sunil.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548

    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Sympathies, Sunil.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    @Sunil - My deepest condolences Dr Blue, to you and your family.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    You regularly hear the idea that new Conservative supporters might bottle it on the day. This suggests that isn't going to happen (and in fact the Conservatives have more scope to surprise on the upside):

    https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/857195329791418368

    Because there are far more Conservative voters at the moment despite those %s if everyone who said they may change their mind did do so , the Conservative support would be lower .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Meeks, to be honest, that's an alarming thought.

    Whilst I'm relieved it's looking likely Corbyn will be crushed, landslide majorities are not, I think, good for democracy. I don't want a Conservative party on 450 seats becoming complacent, sloppy and incompetent.

    But if you're in a red-blue marginal, what's the alternative? Corbyn's got to be kept out of Downing Street.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @FoxInSox

    Fair go, Doc, I have long taken the view that leaving the EU would mean a reversion to WTO terms (as it has now become) and have never felt frightened by that fact. For me this is a political not an economic decision. Others, maybe including yourself, will disagree.

    Nope. I have been an advocate of hard Brexit since last July, and think it mistaken to believe in soft Brexit.

    I do expect Britain to change its mind in the medium term and apply for EEA membership once it has got its atavistic tantrum out of the way.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Also on topic, the sheer consistency of the recent polls stands out. Since the election was called, we've had 49:26, 49:27, 46:24, 40:29, 48:26, 48:27, 48:25, 50:25, 45:26, 48:24 and 46:25.

    Only Survation has the Conservatives outside 45-50 and Labour outside 24-27.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    Condolences @Sunil_Prasannan
  • MTimT said:

    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:


    Best get used to the idea, old chap, and plan accordingly if your business takes you into Europe. The powers that be in the EU seem determined to try to punish us for daring to go our own way because, sadly, they are frightened that other countries might do the same.

    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
    Yes, that's about right, HL. The UK will certainly not starve or go bankrupt, it will just trade on worse terms than it did within the EU. How much worse depends on how the negotiations go, which of course is in turn partly dependent on how the EU feels about things.

    I doubt it will wilfully adopt a punitive attitude but that's up to them. When we signed the Article 50 letter we committed to coming out regardless. Doesn't matter if the EU is reasonable, or knuckle-headed about it. We're coming out whatever.

    In practice I expect the EU will be fairly reasonable if only because it will perceive it to be in its interest to be so, but if it perceives that interest to include an element of punishment, we can hardly complain. It's what we voted for, or 52% of us at least.
    .

    o I'm sure there will be plenty of EU leaders who will approach the deal with a large degree of schadenfreude.
    That may be so, David, or maybe not. We just don't know and we won't know for a while yet.

    What we do know is that whatever they offer, our Government will take it, because it feels obliged to enact the result of the referendum. Whether that is wise is another question, but it is going to happen.
    It seems that many are commenting on the Brexit negotiations as if it is solely a 'win-lose' set up. In many areas, it is a 'win-win', and overall, there is no reason per se
    No, I never did imagine it would be all doom and gloom, Tim. Nor is it entirely a zero-sum gain. There clearly will be some win-win situations.

    There will be others that are not, however, and in those the UK's bargaining position is constrained. If you and I played poker and I was obliged to place my cards face up on the table whilst you were allowed to keep them close to your chest, who do you think would win?

    That's all I was saying, obvious as it may be.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Also on topic, the sheer consistency of the recent polls stands out. Since the election was called, we've had 49:26, 49:27, 46:24, 40:29, 48:26, 48:27, 48:25, 50:25, 45:26, 48:24 and 46:25.

    Only Survation has the Conservatives outside 45-50 and Labour outside 24-27.

    Feeling pretty confident in my constituency bets, to be honest.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    My sympathies, Sunil. I've been through this with my parents (and in-laws), so I can appreciate your feelings right now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Scott_P said:
    Is that right? I was looking at past election results recently and I am sure I came across a Pirate Party candidate, but I can't remember where it was.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Condolences @Sunil.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MTimT said:

    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:


    Best get used to the idea, old chap, and plan accordingly if your business takes you into Europe. The powers that be in the EU seem determined to try to punish us for daring to go our own way because, sadly, they are frightened that other countries might do the same.

    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
    Yes, that's about right, HL. The UK will certainly not starve or go bankrupt, it will just trade on worse terms than it did within the EU. How much worse depends on how the negotiations go, which of course is in turn partly dependent on how the EU feels about things.

    I doubt it will wilfully adopt a punitive attitude but that's up to them. When we signed the Article 50 letter we committed to coming out regardless. Doesn't matter if the EU is reasonable, or knuckle-headed about it. We're coming out whatever.

    In practice I expect the EU will be fairly reasonable if only because it will perceive it to be in its interest to be so, but if it perceives that interest to include an element of punishment, we can hardly complain. It's what we voted for, or 52% of us at least.
    .

    The EU will do a trade deal that maximises the economic benefit for them and minimises the benefit for the UK. That's the reality of a small country doing a deal with a big one.

    There is plenty of UK business they will have their eye on attracting to the continent and I'm sure they'll negotiate with that in mind.

    The euroskeptics have spent years bashing the EU over the head so I'm sure there will be plenty of EU leaders who will approach the deal with a large degree of schadenfreude.
    That may be so, David, or maybe not. We just don't know and we won't know for a while yet.

    What we do know is that whatever they offer, our Government will take it, because it feels obliged to enact the result of the referendum. Whether that is wise is another question, but it is going to happen.
    It seems that many are commenting on the Brexit negotiations as if it is solely a 'win-lose' set up. In many areas, it is a 'win-win', and overall, there is no reason per se why the overall result cannot be a 'win-win' because the EU and UK clearly place different values on many of the negotiating points, so there is plenty of room for arbitrage across these exchange rates.

    You've missed out lose-lose.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Also on topic, the sheer consistency of the recent polls stands out. Since the election was called, we've had 49:26, 49:27, 46:24, 40:29, 48:26, 48:27, 48:25, 50:25, 45:26, 48:24 and 46:25.

    Only Survation has the Conservatives outside 45-50 and Labour outside 24-27.

    I find that slightly concerning.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Today was the first time I really felt that Mrs May enjoyed PMQs....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    You regularly hear the idea that new Conservative supporters might bottle it on the day. This suggests that isn't going to happen (and in fact the Conservatives have more scope to surprise on the upside):

    https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/857195329791418368

    Because there are far more Conservative voters at the moment despite those %s if everyone who said they may change their mind did do so , the Conservative support would be lower .
    I'm afraid you're wrong:

    .49 * .21 = 10.29%
    .27 * .43 = 11.61%

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Hours after saying he couldn't do anything to stop David Ward being a Lib Dem candidate, Tim Farron sacks David Ward.

    Had to be done. Not quite sure where the authority to do so comes from, but we can worry about that another time. Just too many awkward fronts opening up and this one had to be shut down. I have to compare with Naz Shah - who's shown real contrition and learnt to express herself much more smartly over time - with David Ward who doesn't seem to have learned a thing.

    Very sorry to hear Sunil's news.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    My condolences, Sunil.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Having been through it myself, please accept my sincere condolences to you and your family Sunil.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098
    Mortimer said:

    Today was the first time I really felt that Mrs May enjoyed PMQs....

    Just a shame about all those 'errs' and 'ums' while she shuffled through her pre-prepared attack lines to work out which one bore even a passing relevance to the question....
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    MTimT said:

    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:




    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
    Yes, that's about right, HL. The UK will certainly not starve or go bankrupt, it will just trade on worse terms than it did within the EU. How much worse depends on how the negotiations go, which of course is in turn partly dependent on how the EU feels about things.

    I doubt it will wilfully adopt a punitive attitude but that's up to them. When we signed the Article 50 letter we committed to coming out regardless. Doesn't matter if the EU is reasonable, or knuckle-headed about it. We're coming out whatever.

    In practice I expect the EU will be fairly reasonable if only because it will perceive it to be in its interest to be so, but if it perceives that interest to include an element of punishment, we can hardly complain. It's what we voted for, or 52% of us at least.
    .

    The EU will do a trade deal that maximises the economic benefit for them and minimises the benefit for the UK. That's the reality of a small country doing a deal with a big one.

    There is plenty of UK business they will have their eye on attracting to the continent and I'm sure they'll negotiate with that in mind.

    The euroskeptics have spent years bashing the EU over the head so I'm sure there will be plenty of EU leaders who will approach the deal with a large degree of schadenfreude.
    That may be so, David, or maybe not. We just don't know and we won't know for a while yet.

    What we do know is that whatever they offer, our Government will take it, because it feels obliged to enact the result of the referendum. Whether that is wise is another question, but it is going to happen.
    It seems that many are commenting on the Brexit negotiations as if it is solely a 'win-lose' set up. In many areas, it is a 'win-win', and overall, there is no reason per se why the overall result cannot be a 'win-win' because the EU and UK clearly place different values on many of the negotiating points, so there is plenty of room for arbitrage across these exchange rates.

    You've missed out lose-lose.
    That's a distinct possibility......
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034



    You've missed out lose-lose.

    Not unintentionally, though
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881

    Also on topic, the sheer consistency of the recent polls stands out. Since the election was called, we've had 49:26, 49:27, 46:24, 40:29, 48:26, 48:27, 48:25, 50:25, 45:26, 48:24 and 46:25.

    Only Survation has the Conservatives outside 45-50 and Labour outside 24-27.

    So labour 3-6 points behind Ed M.
    But the Tories well up under May rather than Cameron (8-13 points).

    Killing off UKIP has helped the Tories more than Corbyn?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited April 2017

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"

    That labour source is right.

    I don't like the guy. I won't be voting for him, partly because I agree he'd be a threat to national security. But......

    Jo Cox.

    As home sec and now PM, she's read the intel on the far right, she knows the language and rhetoric the tommy mair types use. And - even if she doesn't care in the slightest for their support - she knows they're swinging behind her right now. Every flag-tattood, skinhead nutjob is listening to what she's saying and cheering her on in this election. A few of them are out to cause trouble and feel empowered.

    We shoot terrorists. That's what we do.

    What do we do to terrorist sympathizers?

    The use of that phrase in parliament - by the prime minister - directed at the leader of the opposition - less than a year after one of his own MP's was murdered by a terrorist and just a month after a terrorist attempted to murder as many civilians, police and politicians as possible - absolutely discredited the office of the Prime Minister.
    Well done, Pong.

    The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
    I hope you haven't lost someone you knew to the IRA, but if you had, you might feel differently.
    But May wasn't speaking in that capacity. She was speaking as PM and Conservative Party leader.

    She also, I suspect, knows that whatever Corbyn's many flaws, he's not a wicked man. I doubt he's a close pal of hers, but I expect personally it's all perfectly cordial.

    The terrorist sympathiser thing is in trolling territory, I'm afraid. Pong is entirely right that we all had a very hard lesson just before the Referendum that hyperbole in the heat of a campaign can have real (and wholly unintended) consequences when picked up on by oddballs with existing grievances etc.

    Politicians (not just May - she's certainly not the sole offender, and nor are the Tories generally) need to appreciate they don't choose who hear's their words, and show some restraint and care in picking those words.
  • Mr. Meeks, to be honest, that's an alarming thought.

    Whilst I'm relieved it's looking likely Corbyn will be crushed, landslide majorities are not, I think, good for democracy. I don't want a Conservative party on 450 seats becoming complacent, sloppy and incompetent.

    But if you're in a red-blue marginal, what's the alternative? Corbyn's got to be kept out of Downing Street.

    Pigs will indeed fly before Corbyn is elected to No 10, Morris.

    Fortunately for me, I have a dilemma-free alternative. My sitting MP is a left wing Labour Brexiteer.

    Can't wait to get my ballot paper.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:


    Best get used to the idea, old chap, and plan accordingly if your business takes you into Europe. The powers that be in the EU seem determined to try to punish us for daring to go our own way because, sadly, they are frightened that other countries might do the same.

    On the bright side we seem to be able to trade quite successfully with the rest of the world under those same "Pretty restrictive WTO terms" so I doubt we will starve or go bankrupt.
    Yes, that's about right, HL. The UK will certainly not starve or go bankrupt, it will just trade on worse terms than it did within the EU. How much worse depends on how the negotiations go, which of course is in turn partly dependent on how the EU feels about things.

    I doubt it will wilfully adopt a punitive attitude but that's up to them. When we signed the Article 50 letter we committed to coming out regardless. Doesn't matter if the EU is reasonable, or knuckle-headed about it. We're coming out whatever.

    In practice I expect the EU will be fairly reasonable if only because it will perceive it to be in its interest to be so, but if it perceives that interest to include an element of punishment, we can hardly complain. It's what we voted for, or 52% of us at least.
    .

    o I'm sure there will be plenty of EU leaders who will approach the deal with a large degree of schadenfreude.
    That may be so, David, or maybe not. We just don't know and we won't know for a while yet.

    What we do know is that whatever they offer, our Government will take it, because it feels obliged to enact the result of the referendum. Whether that is wise is another question, but it is going to happen.
    It seems that many are commenting on the Brexit negotiations as if it is solely a 'win-lose' set up. In many areas, it is a 'win-win', and overall, there is no reason per se
    No, I never did imagine it would be all doom and gloom, Tim. Nor is it entirely a zero-sum gain. There clearly will be some win-win situations.

    There will be others that are not, however, and in those the UK's bargaining position is constrained. If you and I played poker and I was obliged to place my cards face up on the table whilst you were allowed to keep them close to your chest, who do you think would win?

    That's all I was saying, obvious as it may be.
    As usual, we agree.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited April 2017

    Well done, Pong.

    The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.

    Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.

    The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. B2, pre-prepared? It's a monstrous Brownian tautology.

    Cooler, six weeks.
  • ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Sorry for your loss Sunil, my condolences.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Scott_P said:

    Was that Tim Farron, or was it Theresa May?

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/857224824963424256
    Now , now it's not a 'sin' to change your mind. :)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    You regularly hear the idea that new Conservative supporters might bottle it on the day. This suggests that isn't going to happen (and in fact the Conservatives have more scope to surprise on the upside):

    https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/857195329791418368

    Because there are far more Conservative voters at the moment despite those %s if everyone who said they may change their mind did do so , the Conservative support would be lower .
    I'm afraid you're wrong:

    .49 * .21 = 10.29%
    .27 * .43 = 11.61%

    Nope the Conservatives do lose that but cannot assume they will gain all the defectors from the other parties . Try again with Conservative defectors going half to Lab and half to LD and similar for the other parties .
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Sincere condolences to Sunil.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Senior Labour source says May calling Corbyn "a terrorist sympathiser" in #pmqs was a "discredit to the office of Prime Minister"

    That labour source is right.

    I don't like the guy. I won't be voting for him, partly because I agree he'd be a threat to national security. But......

    Jo Cox.

    As home sec and now PM, she's read the intel on the far right, she knows the language and rhetoric the tommy mair types use. And - even if she doesn't care in the slightest for their support - she knows they're swinging behind her right now. Every flag-tattood, skinhead nutjob is listening to what she's saying and cheering her on in this election. A few of them are out to cause trouble and feel empowered.

    We shoot terrorists. That's what we do.

    What do we do to terrorist sympathizers?

    The use of that phrase in parliament - by the prime minister - directed at the leader of the opposition - less than a year after one of his own MP's was murdered by a terrorist and just a month after a terrorist attempted to murder as many civilians, police and politicians as possible - absolutely discredited the office of the Prime Minister.
    Well done, Pong.

    The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
    I hope you haven't lost someone you knew to the IRA, but if you had, you might feel differently.
    Just as well the Conservatives weren't negotiating secretly with the IRA in the past ....

    Oooppps ....
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    You regularly hear the idea that new Conservative supporters might bottle it on the day. This suggests that isn't going to happen (and in fact the Conservatives have more scope to surprise on the upside):

    https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/857195329791418368

    Because there are far more Conservative voters at the moment despite those %s if everyone who said they may change their mind did do so , the Conservative support would be lower .
    that doesn't make sense. the share isn't a predictor of how strong your and deep your support is- you could easily make the argument the other way around.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    tlg86 said:

    Also on topic, the sheer consistency of the recent polls stands out. Since the election was called, we've had 49:26, 49:27, 46:24, 40:29, 48:26, 48:27, 48:25, 50:25, 45:26, 48:24 and 46:25.

    Only Survation has the Conservatives outside 45-50 and Labour outside 24-27.

    I find that slightly concerning.
    c. 3-5 % errors is about right. It's not like GE2015 when they all got frit and piled in on the same percentage.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Having managed to get £20 to £50 a seat on most of last night's tips - Betfair are restricting me to £0.25 at best - not very "fair" !
  • Sincere condolences to Sunil.

    Likewise. Trust the old boy didn't suffer too much and that you are ok.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited April 2017

    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Sympathies, Sunil.
    sorry for your loss Sunil, deepest sympathies.
  • Well done, Pong.

    The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.

    Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.

    The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
    Knock it off, Richard. Two wrongs never made a right.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    chestnut said:

    The Ipsos subsamples for London and the South are by far the best that the left has had to date. A huge over-inclusion of public sector workers in the unweighted sample, mind.

    Corbyn's 'Best PM' ratings are also least bad here:

    May vs Corbyn 'Most capable PM'

    North (ex SC): +40
    Midland: +47
    South: +31
    London: +15
    Scotland: +27

    Does suggest bloodbath in the Midlands.....
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Help please advice needed. PENSIONS:

    My dad is 58 years old, he has three pension pots .

    One with Zurich which is worth X amount but he is not making any more contributions with them.

    One with his employer that is managed by ageon.

    and the third the state pension ofcourse.

    Question is he wants to take the 25% tax free lump sum available to people over 55's. Can he get 25% tax free from all three including the government one or only from the zurich and ageon one's. Your help is much appreciated.

    There is no tax free lump sum with the state pension. He can get the lump sum from the others (assuming they are defined contribution/money purchase) by going into flexible drawdown (or by buying an annuity) at age 55, or later.

    He will however need to talk to his employer (or their managers) about that scheme, since it will depend on its normal retirement age and what rules it has about early payment.
    Thanx!
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    Pulpstar said:

    You regularly hear the idea that new Conservative supporters might bottle it on the day. This suggests that isn't going to happen (and in fact the Conservatives have more scope to surprise on the upside):

    https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/857195329791418368

    Because there are far more Conservative voters at the moment despite those %s if everyone who said they may change their mind did do so , the Conservative support would be lower .
    I'm afraid you're wrong:

    .49 * .21 = 10.29%
    .27 * .43 = 11.61%

    Nope the Conservatives do lose that but cannot assume they will gain all the defectors from the other parties . Try again with Conservative defectors going half to Lab and half to LD and similar for the other parties .
    Thats ridiculous. You can;'t just pick and choose which party is going to lose support.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540

    Well done, Pong.

    The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.

    Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.

    The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
    Well said.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sunil - I'm saddened to hear your dreadful news.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    My condolences, Sunil.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Miss Vance, interesting May beats Corbyn by more in the North of England and the Midlands than in the South.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Sunil - my condolences - 80 is not a bad innings.
  • Well done, Pong.

    The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.

    Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.

    The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
    I agree with you that Corbyn was wrong on the IRA and wrong on Hamas. But the response to that is to say, "Mr Corbyn was grossly insensitive in inviting known associates of terrorists into Parliament some years ago. He has said he understands the motivations of terrorists, and this risks detracting from the awful suffering of victims. For these reasons, and more, I think his judgment is poor, and he would be a poor PM".

    A glib "I hear he's a terrorist sympathiser!" in a knock-about PMQs isn't the statesmanlike way to deal with what I fully agree is a point that has some validity and is reasonable to air. Doing it in the way it was done feeds the trolls and the oddballs.

    And of course I agree that Tory MPs must have been utterly devastated by the killing of a widely liked (Labour) colleague. The point is that the escalation of language on BOTH sides of the debate wholly unintentionally made such tragic events more likely, and politicians on ALL sides need to learn from that.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MTimT said:



    You've missed out lose-lose.

    Not unintentionally, though
    Then stupidly. In any divorce, no matter how desirable (that's a question that's been aired enough for now), there are areas where two could live as cheaply as one and where both sides will be impoverished by the breaking-off of sharing.

    The determination of far too many Leavers to ignore this obvious point is one of the reasons I have so little faith that negotiations are going to be undertaken with any competence.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Knock it off, Richard. Two wrongs never made a right.

    Precisely my point.

    In this case however, the Labour Party, having utterly lost its marbles, is putting forward as its candidates for PM and Chancellor two individuals who are fully on record as being sympathisers for the IRA at least, and for some other dodgy causes to a lesser extent. Personally I think that is an extremely relevant factor for the PM to bring up. Don't you?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614

    Well done, Pong.

    The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.

    Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.

    The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
    I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Pulpstar said:

    You regularly hear the idea that new Conservative supporters might bottle it on the day. This suggests that isn't going to happen (and in fact the Conservatives have more scope to surprise on the upside):

    https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/857195329791418368

    Because there are far more Conservative voters at the moment despite those %s if everyone who said they may change their mind did do so , the Conservative support would be lower .
    I'm afraid you're wrong:

    .49 * .21 = 10.29%
    .27 * .43 = 11.61%

    Nope the Conservatives do lose that but cannot assume they will gain all the defectors from the other parties . Try again with Conservative defectors going half to Lab and half to LD and similar for the other parties .
    .43 * .13 = 5.59% for completeness.

    Con goes half LD, half Lab {LD + 5.15, Lab +5.15}
    Lab goes half Con, half LD {Con + 5.8, LD + 5.8}
    LD goes half Lab, half Con {Lab + 2.8, Con + 2.8}

    Con -10.3 + 5.8, +2.8
    Lab -11.6 + 5.15 + 2.8
    LD -5.6 + 5.15 + 5.8

    Con 47.3, Lab 23.4, LD 18.6 ?


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Oh boy. Tory voters pretty decided. Labour not. Leadership is big issue.

    This is going one way...

    Sort of feels like to me one of two things will happen:

    (1) Polling will stabilise at 46-49% for the Tories, and mid-20s for Labour. But, the Tory share will fall back to 42-44% on the day, and Labour will perform a bit better. Manifestos and debates clip Theresa's wings a bit. Public decide they don't want a utter rout of Labour because of need for opposition. Turnout is ok. 30-50 Tory Gains but no wipeout.

    (2) Polling continues to worsen for Labour, and creeps consistently into the low 50s for the Tories, as the spotlight is put on Corbyn's past, and the media spotlight increases. Labour's manifesto is pulled to shreds, and a disaster, many senior Labourites publicly disown Corbyn, and Labour party discipline breaks down. Tories actually do clock 48-50% on the day, UKIP dissolve into nothing, Labour poll in the very low 20s, with perhaps the LDs doing a bit better. Turnout is lower. 125+ Tory gains. Labour reduced to a rump of perhaps only 90-110 MPs.

    Right now I'd rate the latter as a significantly higher probability than the former.
    Sobering options, but they look plausible.
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Peter Lilley standing down.

    All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
    What was the reason to reduce the number of MPs and has that changed?
    Ministers say it will lower the "cost of politics" without reducing accountability.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12650869
    It was promised by David Cameron in the wake of the expenses scandal (2009, where did eight years go?) as a reduction in the cost of politics and politicians.

    To abandon (again) the Boundary Commission would cost as much as the savings that would have been made over the past few years. The boundaries are now well out of date and need updating. Some MPs (especially the new ones in June) are going to be discounted, but for politicians to keep delaying it for their own self interest makes us start to look like the US Congress.
    Agreed.
    Scott_P said:

    @callummay: Tim Farron has sacked David Ward say the Lib Dems

    Sounds sensible
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2017
    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Because there are far more Conservative voters at the moment despite those %s if everyone who said they may change their mind did do so , the Conservative support would be lower .

    I'm afraid you're wrong:

    .49 * .21 = 10.29%
    .27 * .43 = 11.61%

    Nope the Conservatives do lose that but cannot assume they will gain all the defectors from the other parties . Try again with Conservative defectors going half to Lab and half to LD and similar for the other parties .
    Thats ridiculous. You can;'t just pick and choose which party is going to lose support.
    You can if you're in a house of straw, on a straw chair, at a straw table, building a straw case of why Labour will win, with or without Jack Straw.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,039

    Knock it off, Richard. Two wrongs never made a right.

    Precisely my point.

    In this case however, the Labour Party, having utterly lost its marbles, is putting forward as its candidates for PM and Chancellor two individuals who are fully on record as being sympathisers for the IRA at least, and for some other dodgy causes to a lesser extent. Personally I think that is an extremely relevant factor for the PM to bring up. Don't you?
    Quite right, Richard.

    The PM is well within her rights to point out both their records.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Really sorry to hear this Sunil. Condolences to your and your family.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Macron taking a medium sized gamble going to the Whirlpool factory. Seems to be pulling it off mind.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Sunil_Prasannan

    My condolences, Cap'n Doc, to you and your mum. It can be a real bugger when a major plank in our lives is suddenly removed. At times of such loss there can be no words that bring comfort from a stranger but if you'll accept advice; let the tears fall, as they must, and then, denying nothing and taking your love and memories with you, shout, "Yo ho, my hearties, bring me that horizon!"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    calum said:
    Are there really parties that haven't produced a dodgy bar chart at some point. I know the LDs seem the most prevalent with them, but they're practically a beloved tradition at this point.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Anorak said:

    midwinter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Because there are far more Conservative voters at the moment despite those %s if everyone who said they may change their mind did do so , the Conservative support would be lower .

    I'm afraid you're wrong:

    .49 * .21 = 10.29%
    .27 * .43 = 11.61%

    Nope the Conservatives do lose that but cannot assume they will gain all the defectors from the other parties . Try again with Conservative defectors going half to Lab and half to LD and similar for the other parties .
    Thats ridiculous. You can;'t just pick and choose which party is going to lose support.
    You can if you're in a house of straw, on a straw chair, at a straw table, building a straw case of why Labour will win, with or without Jack Straw.
    What about Straw Junior?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Condolences Sunil.
  • kle4 said:

    calum said:
    Are there really parties that haven't produced a dodgy bar chart at some point. I know the LDs seem the most prevalent with them, but they're practically a beloved tradition at this point.
    The Lib Dems started the traditional, but since then pretty much every other party has followed suit
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    You regularly hear the idea that new Conservative supporters might bottle it on the day. This suggests that isn't going to happen (and in fact the Conservatives have more scope to surprise on the upside):

    https://twitter.com/GideonSkinner/status/857195329791418368

    It's the big what if - they need to seize the chance, and at the moment it looks like they intend to.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    Miss Vance, interesting May beats Corbyn by more in the North of England and the Midlands than in the South.

    Looking good for those of us with a slew of small constituency bets...

    I am in a similar position to you, Mr Dancer - feeling pretty happy with most of them. Aliiance to win Belfast South was a tremendous tip at 66/1 - but although down to 6/1, I don't really expect them to win it...
  • This is the best bar chart, produced by John Loony

    image
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Only 49%? Bah!
This discussion has been closed.