It is only right that the public are made fully aware of his abhorrent views.
This idea of the 'nice but dim and misguided' Corbyn needs putting to bed.
Quite and it is to the eternal shame of any Labour MP or member who nominated or voted for him. I also believe that a mass exodus of members/MPs may have brought this travesty to an end sooner.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
I'm not sure those figures are directly comparable because there was a more credible/visible third option during both of the previous periods.
It's an 'either/or' question.
What data do you have that supports the contention that May's ratings are good only because her opponent's are bad - rather than contradicts it?
That's not my contention. My contention is that the figures are misleading because it's more of a binary question than it was in the other cases. In other words her rating is flattered by the weakness of Farron.
Not May or Corbyn: 16% Not Thatcher or Foot: 36% Not Blair or Hague: 36%
Farron is that bad?
Well, since May can't be 'good' and Corbyn isn't as bad as Hague or Foot, that's the only possible explanation. Obviously.....
Mr. S, depends. The Conservative manifesto may put some people off, and if the CPS actually brought charges, that would bring much bad publicity.
Short of that, the fundamental picture is the same. Corbyn is unacceptable. And so, he shan't be accepted. The PLP is about to reap the harvest it planted when 35 or so of them cretinously put him on the shortlist.
ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.
I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.
Sorry to hear that news Sunil.
Happened to me just 3 weeks when my Dad passed away three days short of his 76th b'day. In many ways I am also still in denial and we all grieve differently I guess but make sure you look after your Mum please.
Sorry to hear that; and @Sunil sorry to hear of your loss too. Happened to me 3 years ago.
Thanks Mr Z - I know we cross swords on here but hopefully all in "banter mode" and nothing is meant personally.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
Anybody not aware of their previous associations hasn't been paying much attention or doesn't give a stuff anyway.
It's storm in a teacup stuff but a salutary reminder that May isn't that great. She was a poor Home Secretary and if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
She had absolutely no need to go into that kind of territory. She's ahead by miles in the polls. She could go on a six week walking holiday now and still come back to the prospect of an overwhelming majority. She certainly doesn't need to blow dog-whistles for the kind of f*ckwit that did for Jo Cox and is apt to attach itself to any political Party that is imprudent enough to appear to give them encouragement.
I disagree. I think she absolutely needed to 'go into that kind of territory', as you put it. This is politics, unfair, brutal, dirty, uncompromising, and it's what has to be done in a GE campaign. Corbyn and McDonnell have to be exposed for what they are, and I disagree with you that most people know about it, or don't care about it.
It's not the job of a party leader to go easy on their opposite number, especially in our system where there is usually only one winner. There will be plenty more of this to come, and it will be richly deserved.
+1 and there were plenty of warnings from the moment Corbyn was elected. You make your bed....
A Labour MP stood in silence for a minute yesterday to honour the eight IRA gunmen shot dead in an SAS ambush nine days ago.
Mr Jeremy Corbyn, 38, joined a 200-strong audience at London’s Conway Hall in paying tribute to the terrorists shot as they bombed Loughgall police station in County Armagh, Ulster…
He told a meeting of the Wolf Tone Society: “I’m happy to commemorate all those who died fighting for an independent Ireland.”
Anybody not aware of their previous associations hasn't been paying much attention or doesn't give a stuff anyway.
It's storm in a teacup stuff but a salutary reminder that May isn't that great. She was a poor Home Secretary and if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
She had absolutely no need to go into that kind of territory. She's ahead by miles in the polls. She could go on a six week walking holiday now and still come back to the prospect of an overwhelming majority. She certainly doesn't need to blow dog-whistles for the kind of f*ckwit that did for Jo Cox and is apt to attach itself to any political Party that is imprudent enough to appear to give them encouragement.
If he is a terrorist sympathiser - which he is - it is the duty of everyone to do everything they can to keep his hands away from the levers of power. I don't see what the Jo Cox angle is - I don't believe it has been suggested that her murderer thought she was a terrorist sympathiser, or that right-wing nutters murder people for that reason in this country. I imagine Special Branch have got Jezza's back at least for the duration of the campaign, and even if May were evil enough to encourage someone to polish him off (which she plainly isn't) I cannot think of a single event which would damage her electoral prospects more than the martyrdom of Jezza, so she'd have to be dim as well as evil to do such a thing.
ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.
I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.
Sorry to hear that news Sunil.
Happened to me just 3 weeks when my Dad passed away three days short of his 76th b'day. In many ways I am also still in denial and we all grieve differently I guess but make sure you look after your Mum please.
Sorry to hear that; and @Sunil sorry to hear of your loss too. Happened to me 3 years ago.
Thanks Mr Z - I know we cross swords on here but hopefully all in "banter mode" and nothing is meant personally.
A Labour MP stood in silence for a minute yesterday to honour the eight IRA gunmen shot dead in an SAS ambush nine days ago.
Mr Jeremy Corbyn, 38, joined a 200-strong audience at London’s Conway Hall in paying tribute to the terrorists shot as they bombed Loughgall police station in County Armagh, Ulster…
He told a meeting of the Wolf Tone Society: “I’m happy to commemorate all those who died fighting for an independent Ireland.”
Corbyn is an utter moron. He shouldn't have been allowed anywhere near a party leadership election. The Labour Party will regret bitterly that they elected him.
Macron taking a medium sized gamble going to the Whirlpool factory. Seems to be pulling it off mind.
Macron has been booed by factory workers in Amiens after failing to meet them outside the factory itself as Marine Le Pen did but only meeting union bosses in a plush office.
A Labour MP stood in silence for a minute yesterday to honour the eight IRA gunmen shot dead in an SAS ambush nine days ago.
Mr Jeremy Corbyn, 38, joined a 200-strong audience at London’s Conway Hall in paying tribute to the terrorists shot as they bombed Loughgall police station in County Armagh, Ulster…
He told a meeting of the Wolf Tone Society: “I’m happy to commemorate all those who died fighting for an independent Ireland.”
Corbyn is an utter moron. He shouldn't have been allowed anywhere near a party leadership election. The Labour Party will regret bitterly that they elected him.
He like Ward should have been expelled and re-elected years ago.
No ones going to deny that ukip are in reverse and may well poll under 5%, but to try and say that's because "the Tories have killed them" is madness. It's because many of their big names have turned it in due to their objective being achieved.
That's true. It's more that the Tories have given in and done what they wanted so now the voters can flock home.
The People's Action Party in Singapore. In power since 1959 and counting.
The Institutional Revolutionary Party in Mexico. In power 1929-2000.
That's a fantastic name for a party. Yes, we're revolutionary, but we're also embedded in the institutions of power and have been for decades, so Institutional Revolutionary Party.
New front wing for Renault, which they hope will make their races less rubbish.
FIA to clamp down on burning oil to enhance qualifying performance (mostly Mercedes, maybe Ferrari).
And India, which had arguably the worst circuit I've ever seen, has proved again that the sport was right to leave, as it now wants to charge income tax for the 2011-13 period when F1 went there.
No ones going to deny that ukip are in reverse and may well poll under 5%, but to try and say that's because "the Tories have killed them" is madness. It's because many of their big names have turned it in due to their objective being achieved.
That's true. It's more that the Tories have given in and done what they wanted so now the voters can flock home.
And in doing so miraculously healed (or at least papered over) their divisions on Europe.
And then only for a year, then in for another 25 years.
Though I've noted this before about the Liberal Democrat Party of Japan, and it always amuses
The LDP is not to be confused with the now-defunct Liberal Party (自由党 Jiyūtō?), which merged with the Democratic Party of Japan (民主党 Minshutō?), now the Democratic Party (民進党 Minshintō?), the main opposition party
I'm not a fan of acronym heavy politics, but a bit more differentiation would be nice.
Back to politics, do any of you feel that there will be swingback in the polls towards Labour as we approach polling day?
The consensus is that things will get worse for Labour.
Firstly, condolences to Sunil.
On swingback to Labour:
a) Black Swan of whatever nature.
b) CPS charges on expenses is the obvious one, though it depends on the number and nature. There may be none, and that's that, of course. Clearly there is a "political" defence to anything that were brought of that "innocent until proven - we will stoutly deny etc etc" which would kick it at that point well past June 8th, and (lawyers advise please) we get into sub judice I guess on the details which might cap it all after a few days of bad headlines.
I have a feeling that the heavy artillery on Corbyn's associations with matters Irish and Middle Eastern is being held back till this point (I really feel we ain't seen nothing yet), as at that point people can draw whatever moral equivalence or otherwise from "an accusation of not doing expenses right that's yet to be proven", to "here's the Labour candidate for Prime Minister's speech at such and such a rally in 1984 and a video in 1993 and a photo in 2005" or whatever is stored at Tory HQ.
It's a moot point how well these associations are known generally (not that much is my guess) but they will, I suggest, go down indescribably badly in Middle Britain.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
Her high ratings are despite Corbyn being rated higher than either Foot or Hague when up against Thatcher/Blair.
Since this confounds we well entrenched 'received opinion';
Could 2017, or rather 2015, be the start of a 'democratic' one-party state to beat all world records? To name but two examples Sweden's SDP and South Africa's National Party both governed for unbroken periods of over 40 years.
Agreed, one of them is a tiny bit more democratic than the other one. But Sweden went from 1932 to 1976 with regular 'elections' but no change of govt. Why not the UK?
We also have FPTP to swell the governing party's majority of seats. Sweden achieved this with PR.
Wouldn't Japan beat that record?
Maybe it comes near to it. This site says that they had a democratically-elected 'one-party state' for 38 years
Macron taking a medium sized gamble going to the Whirlpool factory. Seems to be pulling it off mind.
Macron has been booed by factory workers in Amiens after failing to meet them outside the factory itself as Marine Le Pen did but only meeting union bosses in a plush office.
Booed on his way in, shaking hands on the way out. He's winning this election 70-30.
I am sure Michael Farron attack will be worse.His attack on Ed Milliband in the 2015 GE went beyond politics to me.
Fallon*
Also - this is pretty standard operating procedure for the Tories isn't it? Accuse he other side of abetting/sympathising/supporting/giving into terrorists.
I don't recall for Gordon - but certainly Ed M. and Tony got the treatment. Corbyn obviously has more skeletons - but also doesn't seem able or willing to fight back.
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points but there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
Still following the suggestion from PfP about looking at potential Labour leadership contenders who have majorities greater than 10,000 and therefore might still be in contention
Starting at 10,000, one of the first names on the list is Catherine McKinnell who I personally think would be an excellent choice, but is probably disqualified on account of being the wrong sex for a Labour leader.
A few rows below that though, we come to a name that seems almost destined.
A leader who can clean up the mess and dispel the loony left from the party forever.
On the TV debates, is anyone really surprised by the news that Jeremy Corbyn is apparently so frightened of how badly he would perform he is not prepared to take on an empty chair?
*although to be fair, not even Dirty Harry could'nt win that one
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points, there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
What is the MoE of 46 and 28? Better still, what is the formula? If it isn't poissonian is it binomial?
My condolences, Cap'n Doc, to you and your mum. It can be a real bugger when a major plank in our lives is suddenly removed. At times of such loss there can be no words that bring comfort from a stranger but if you'll accept advice; let the tears fall, as they must, and then, denying nothing and taking your love and memories with you, shout, "Yo ho, my hearties, bring me that horizon!"
It is only right that the public are made fully aware of his abhorrent views.
This idea of the 'nice but dim and misguided' Corbyn needs putting to bed.
Quite and it is to the eternal shame of any Labour MP or member who nominated or voted for him. I also believe that a mass exodus of members/MPs may have brought this travesty to an end sooner.
Indeed. In hindsight the great mistake the PLP made was accepting the whip back after he failed to resign following the vote of no confidence. They should have appointed a new leader in the Commons. I still think they should rebel en masse after nominations close on 12 May.
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points, there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
What is the MoE of 46 and 28? Better still, what is the formula? If it isn't poissonian is it binomial?
Dunno the formula, when I first heard that MOE varies I wrote a computer program to simulate millions of polls of a population to confirm it's truth. And it's totally true.
Back to politics, do any of you feel that there will be swingback in the polls towards Labour as we approach polling day?
The consensus is that things will get worse for Labour.
Firstly, condolences to Sunil.
On swingback to Labour:
a) Black Swan of whatever nature.
b) CPS charges on expenses is the obvious one, though it depends on the number and nature. There may be none, and that's that, of course. Clearly there is a "political" defence to anything that were brought of that "innocent until proven - we will stoutly deny etc etc" which would kick it at that point well past June 8th, and (lawyers advise please) we get into sub judice I guess on the details which might cap it all after a few days of bad headlines.
I have a feeling that the heavy artillery on Corbyn's associations with matters Irish and Middle Eastern is being held back till this point (I really feel we ain't seen nothing yet), as at that point people can draw whatever moral equivalence or otherwise from "an accusation of not doing expenses right that's yet to be proven", to "here's the Labour candidate for Prime Minister's speech at such and such a rally in 1984 and a video in 1993 and a photo in 2005" or whatever is stored at Tory HQ.
It's a moot point how well these associations are known generally (not that much is my guess) but they will, I suggest, go down indescribably badly in Middle Britain.
Not sure where Middle Britain is (near Middle Earth?) but my guess is that there weren't many Corbyn supporters there anyway. Of course if you need the support of the Rabid Right it should help but they're an unruly bunch and can be more trouble than they're worth.
How many points is she in the lead? She can do without them.
Macron taking a medium sized gamble going to the Whirlpool factory. Seems to be pulling it off mind.
Macron has been booed by factory workers in Amiens after failing to meet them outside the factory itself as Marine Le Pen did but only meeting union bosses in a plush office.
Booed on his way in, shaking hands on the way out. He's winning this election 70-30.
Should that happen, HYUFD will be along the morning after to tell you that, in fact, Le Pen actually won.
No ones going to deny that ukip are in reverse and may well poll under 5%, but to try and say that's because "the Tories have killed them" is madness. It's because many of their big names have turned it in due to their objective being achieved.
That's true. It's more that the Tories have given in and done what they wanted so now the voters can flock home.
And in doing so miraculously healed (or at least papered over) their divisions on Europe.
I'd say healed. The remainer Tories have given up other than a few like Soubry and Clarke. The referendum result crushed them in a way that a leaver winning a leadership election couldn't.
Once we are out will any of them argue for coming back in? Doubt it.
The man's absurd. Like other people who have found themselves down that path, he insists shadowy cabals of enemies, purely political enemies of course, are behind any criticism, indignant that anyone could criticise them for any reason other than that political, oh yes political to be sure, reason.
@PolhomeEditor: BREAKING: Hours after saying he couldn't do anything to stop David Ward being a Lib Dem candidate, Tim Farron sacks David Ward.
Had to be done. Not quite sure where the authority to do so comes from, but we can worry about that another time. Just too many awkward fronts opening up and this one had to be shut down. I have to compare with Naz Shah - who's shown real contrition and learnt to express herself much more smartly over time - with David Ward who doesn't seem to have learned a thing.
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points, there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points, there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
Macron taking a medium sized gamble going to the Whirlpool factory. Seems to be pulling it off mind.
Macron has been booed by factory workers in Amiens after failing to meet them outside the factory itself as Marine Le Pen did but only meeting union bosses in a plush office.
Booed on his way in, shaking hands on the way out. He's winning this election 70-30.
No he met officials at the Chamber of Commerce while Le Pen met workers on the picket line and when he did turn up to the factory surrounded by journalists he was heckled.The latest polling actually has it 60 40 not 70 30 http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points, there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
The man's absurd. Like other people who have found themselves down that path, he insists shadowy cabals of enemies, purely political enemies of course, are behind any criticism, indignant that anyone could criticise them for any reason other than that political, oh yes political to be sure, reason.
The Party is absurd, for keeping him in place for so long.
It has come to a pretty pass when with respect to Israel, UKIP looks a more liberal party than the Liberal Democrats.
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points, there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
What is the MoE of 46 and 28? Better still, what is the formula? If it isn't poissonian is it binomial?
I am sure Michael Farron attack will be worse.His attack on Ed Milliband in the 2015 GE went beyond politics to me.
Fallon*
Also - this is pretty standard operating procedure for the Tories isn't it? Accuse he other side of abetting/sympathising/supporting/giving into terrorists.
I don't recall for Gordon - but certainly Ed M. and Tony got the treatment. Corbyn obviously has more skeletons - but also doesn't seem able or willing to fight back.
He can't fight back because the accusations pitted against him are true. Every speech and every rally he's attended as an MP are more or less in the public domain. He is a terrorist sympathiser, so is John McDonnell, because both of them have said that they are on numerous occasions.
Every single member of the voting public must be made aware of what these two men are.
The people that Labour voters/supporters should blame for the Tory landslide are the MPs that put Corbyn on the ballot who only did it to, I apologise for the phrase, "virtue signal". That is what they were doing, they didn't think he could win, they never thought he should be their leader, they just wanted a risk free option to make themselves look "fair". Now it has bit them hard, and the people who placed their trust in them harder.
It is a remarkable achievement for the leadership to have taken a catastrophic situation in Scotland and made it quite a lot worse. We seem to be doing worse in Wales ... We’ve gone backwards amongst every demographic, every region of the country. Jeremy is behind Theresa May on managing the NHS! It’s quite a special achievement to put all of that together in a short period of time. Hats off to Jeremy and Seumas [Milne], Diane [Abbott] and John [McDonnell]. That’s pretty special.”
Unlike Jeremy and Seumas and others, who have no idea about government, who learned about socialism in expensive private schools, my politics was because of where I was from. I was born into the politics of Labour because I grew up in a pit village in the strike ...
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points, there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
What is the MoE of 46 and 28? Better still, what is the formula? If it isn't poissonian is it binomial?
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points, there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
I suspect some confusion between % error and absolute error (made worse as absolute error is also expressed as a percentage in this case). So a sample yielding 27% in a population with a true finding of 25% has 8% as a percentage error, and 2% as an absolute error.
Absolute error greatest at 50% mark. Percentage error greatest at 1%. I think.
The rough and tumble of electioneering is one thing, but from a PM in the House, that whiffed.
Come off it Pong and PtP. Corbyn's invitation of IRA murderers into parliament whilst MPs were still in mourning over their colleagues and wives, as well as nursing their own injuries, from an outrage perpretated by very close associates of those he invited in, was one of the most disgusting things an MP has ever done. Add to that McDonnell's position on the IRA murderers, and Corbyn's open sympathy for Hamas murderers.
The murder of Jo Cox by a lone nutjob has absolutely zilch to do with this. And, for the record, I can tell you that Tory MPs were absolutely devastated by it; they liked Jo and worked with her, and they also know that they are at risk (especially women MPs). Just look at the threat against Caroline Ansell for a recent example. None of that excuses Corbyn and McDonnell, who seem to work on the principle that any enemy of the UK or the US is their friend.
I actually think the Tories have gone fairly light on this stuff so far. May's statement at PMQs signals what's to come, and it is perfectly legitimate. The people who don't know about Corbyn and McDonnell's previous associations MUST know the truth. They have spent all of their adult lives railing against the British state and giving succour to our enemies. Those are the facts.
Anybody not aware of their previous associations hasn't been paying much attention or doesn't give a stuff anyway.
It's storm in a teacup stuff but a salutary reminder that May isn't that great. She was a poor Home Secretary and if she were not enjoying the most favorable of circumstance and a piss-poor Opposition her shortcomings as a PM might be a little more evident.
She had absolutely no need to go into that kind of territory. She's ahead by miles in the polls. She could go on a six week walking holiday now and still come back to the prospect of an overwhelming majority. She certainly doesn't need to blow dog-whistles for the kind of f*ckwit that did for Jo Cox and is apt to attach itself to any political Party that is imprudent enough to appear to give them encouragement.
I think you make a very fair point. It's the politics of the bully and for those of us who dislike Corbyn for his self serving refusal to put party before self it looks like poor tactics. It reminds us of the nasty party and possibly makes us sympathise with Corbyn.
The only mitigating circumstance is that it's got the dirty fingerprints of Lynton Crosby all over this personality driven campaign but she should remember that the British unlike the Australians like to see fair play
1) There's not a terrorist he's met that he doesn't like 2) He doesn't sing the national anthem 3) He's earned money from Press TV, the official mouth piece of the Iranian government, who hang gays from cranes.
And he/they won't answer back because a) they can't fight the massive (even) visual evidence against them so they lie low in hope that those who are unaware of it all stay that way b) to debate the accusations would bring Armageddon down on their heads, no holds barred and they would be electorally slaughtered, individually and collectively c) they are cowards who ride the punch in the hope that the conversation ends there.
Regarding the last, it should not. If this were your actual war time, they would be charged with treason and aiding and abetting the enemy, banged up, tried and found guilty in seconds.
And honour has nothing to do with it. I doubt his guru, Milne, and his minders, McCluskey and McDonnell, can even spell it.
I don't know much about this guy but if all he has done is criticize Israel, what is all the fuss about? For goodness sake, Israel deserves a hell of lot of criticism - I wish our Government would actually step up to the plate and blast Israel for their repressive actions at times.
The man's absurd. Like other people who have found themselves down that path, he insists shadowy cabals of enemies, purely political enemies of course, are behind any criticism, indignant that anyone could criticise them for any reason other than that political, oh yes political to be sure, reason.
The Party is absurd, for keeping him in place for so long.
It has come to a pretty pass when with respect to Israel, UKIP looks a more liberal party than the Liberal Democrats.
I have already seen a number of Lib Dem activists complain about the suspension...
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points, there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
What is the MoE of 46 and 28? Better still, what is the formula? If it isn't poissonian is it binomial?
Dunno the formula, when I first heard that MOE varies I wrote a computer program to simulate millions of polls of a population to confirm it's truth. And it's totally true.
I have posted this before
MofE = 1.96 x Square root { ( Y x 100-Y ) divided by Z } where Y is % found and Z the sample size
so for sample size of 1000
Con at 48% MofE 3.1% Lab at 26% MofE 2,6% LD at 13% MofE 2.0%
I don't know much about this guy but if all he has done is criticize Israel, what is all the fuss about? For goodness sake, Israel deserves a hell of lot of criticism - I wish our Government would actually step up to the plate and blast Israel for their repressive actions at times.
He has a long history of saying things that fall way further afoul than merely criticising Israel. What he and those like him do is pretend that all he has ever done is criticise Israel, even when he is criticised people who may be perfectly willing to criticise israel. You can google and judge for yourself. Politicians in this country are perfectly able to criticise Israel - they might get attacked as antisemitic for doing so, but if that is the only 'evidence' people have of anti-semitism the claims would clearly be bogus.
Furthermore, if his own Leader thinks he has clearly been unacceptable, even at the cost of damaging the party in the seat, that's a strong sign there's fire under this smoke - One thing we can say for sure about Farron after the last few days is he is not rushed into saying things.
I don't know much about this guy but if all he has done is criticize Israel, what is all the fuss about? For goodness sake, Israel deserves a hell of lot of criticism - I wish our Government would actually step up to the plate and blast Israel for their repressive actions at times.
You must remember that when the Israeli Government bombs children in Gaza whilst Israeli citizens have picnics on nearby hillsides cheering as the bombs fall , an army of Israeli supporters will come out of the woodwork to defend and justify their actions .
I remember the last time MPs issued personal manifestos in the hope of bucking the trend. It didn't really help them. I suspect the same will be true now.
On topic (is there one?) it was obvious that Jezza's desire for a united Ireland, free from the oppressive yoke of the imperial British state, gained after a violent uprising against the Crown Forces, would at some point be examined. Where's the surprise?
I don't know much about this guy but if all he has done is criticize Israel, what is all the fuss about? For goodness sake, Israel deserves a hell of lot of criticism - I wish our Government would actually step up to the plate and blast Israel for their repressive actions at times.
He has a long history of saying things that fall way further afoul than merely criticising Israel. What he and those like him do is pretend that all he has ever done is criticise Israel, even when he is criticised people who may be perfectly willing to criticise israel. You can google and judge for yourself. Politicians in this country are perfectly able to criticise Israel - they might get attacked as antisemitic for doing so, but if that is the only 'evidence' people have of anti-semitism the claims would clearly be bogus.
I don't know much about this guy but if all he has done is criticize Israel, what is all the fuss about? For goodness sake, Israel deserves a hell of lot of criticism - I wish our Government would actually step up to the plate and blast Israel for their repressive actions at times.
You must remember that when the Israeli Government bombs children in Gaza whilst Israeli citizens have picnics on nearby hillsides cheering as the bombs fall , an army of Israeli supporters will come out of the woodwork to defend and justify their actions .
Worth saying that the margin of error around the Tories on 48% is more than the error around Labour on 26%.
Is the true? I thought margin of error was lower the closer you got to 50% not higher.
Correct.
No, margin of error is at it's maximum at 50% and falls off as you head towards 100%-0%
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points, there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
No, that tool is not answering the question that's being asked. Margin of error for a parties result of 48% is higher than for a parties result if it's 28%.
I've just whipped up a quick script and the MOE for a 1000 person poll for a 1000000 person population for a party at 48% is approx 3.1 and for 28% is 2.6%
The margin of error for someone polling at 1% would be 0.6%
Comments
The consensus is that things will get worse for Labour.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_Japan
Short of that, the fundamental picture is the same. Corbyn is unacceptable. And so, he shan't be accepted. The PLP is about to reap the harvest it planted when 35 or so of them cretinously put him on the shortlist.
MP hails IRA dead
A Labour MP stood in silence for a minute yesterday to honour the eight IRA gunmen shot dead in an SAS ambush nine days ago.
Mr Jeremy Corbyn, 38, joined a 200-strong audience at London’s Conway Hall in paying tribute to the terrorists shot as they bombed Loughgall police station in County Armagh, Ulster…
He told a meeting of the Wolf Tone Society: “I’m happy to commemorate all those who died fighting for an independent Ireland.”
Sorry to hear of your loss. It always makes politics seem unimportant for a while.
However Sarkozy has become the latest establishment figure to endorse his campaign
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39723285
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-25/everything-that-pollsters-could-get-wrong-in-u-k-snap-election
It's more that the Tories have given in and done what they wanted so now the voters can flock home.
Turkey swoops on thousands in new purge
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39716631
New front wing for Renault, which they hope will make their races less rubbish.
FIA to clamp down on burning oil to enhance qualifying performance (mostly Mercedes, maybe Ferrari).
And India, which had arguably the worst circuit I've ever seen, has proved again that the sport was right to leave, as it now wants to charge income tax for the 2011-13 period when F1 went there.
Edited extra bit: link, http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/39690457
The curse of Corbyn.
Though I've noted this before about the Liberal Democrat Party of Japan, and it always amuses
The LDP is not to be confused with the now-defunct Liberal Party (自由党 Jiyūtō?), which merged with the Democratic Party of Japan (民主党 Minshutō?), now the Democratic Party (民進党 Minshintō?), the main opposition party
I'm not a fan of acronym heavy politics, but a bit more differentiation would be nice.
On swingback to Labour:
a) Black Swan of whatever nature.
b) CPS charges on expenses is the obvious one, though it depends on the number and nature. There may be none, and that's that, of course. Clearly there is a "political" defence to anything that were brought of that "innocent until proven - we will stoutly deny etc etc" which would kick it at that point well past June 8th, and (lawyers advise please) we get into sub judice I guess on the details which might cap it all after a few days of bad headlines.
I have a feeling that the heavy artillery on Corbyn's associations with matters Irish and Middle Eastern is being held back till this point (I really feel we ain't seen nothing yet), as at that point people can draw whatever moral equivalence or otherwise from "an accusation of not doing expenses right that's yet to be proven", to "here's the Labour candidate for Prime Minister's speech at such and such a rally in 1984 and a video in 1993 and a photo in 2005" or whatever is stored at Tory HQ.
It's a moot point how well these associations are known generally (not that much is my guess) but they will, I suggest, go down indescribably badly in Middle Britain.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/japan/japanparties.htm.
Also - this is pretty standard operating procedure for the Tories isn't it? Accuse he other side of abetting/sympathising/supporting/giving into terrorists.
I don't recall for Gordon - but certainly Ed M. and Tony got the treatment.
Corbyn obviously has more skeletons - but also doesn't seem able or willing to fight back.
If you want an instinctive proof of that, imagine a 1 million person population with 2 people who holds view A. In a 1000 sample poll the maximum number of people that can appear with view A is 2, or 0.2%
The headline margin of error of the poll is 3.1% points but there is no way view A can ever be as high as 3.3%
haven't had one of those for a while...
Still following the suggestion from PfP about looking at potential Labour leadership contenders who have majorities greater than 10,000 and therefore might still be in contention
looking at this spreadsheet
http://www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/mps-maj.htm
Starting at 10,000, one of the first names on the list is Catherine McKinnell who I personally think would be an excellent choice, but is probably disqualified on account of being the wrong sex for a Labour leader.
A few rows below that though, we come to a name that seems almost destined.
A leader who can clean up the mess and dispel the loony left from the party forever.
I give you, Stephen Kinnock
@ 33/1 with the magic sign
I'm on.
.... I'll get my coat.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0186JAEWK?enableAutoPlay=1&ref=pr_shrturl_1_ods_aucc_hx#productDescription_secondary_view_div_1493218826286
*although to be fair, not even Dirty Harry could'nt win that one
% - MOE (95%):
50% : 3
40%: 4
30%: 5
20%: 6
10%: 9
https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/
How many points is she in the lead? She can do without them.
Once we are out will any of them argue for coming back in? Doubt it.
I'm not sure that's what was intended.
46: 3
28: 5
https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/
http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1
It has come to a pretty pass when with respect to Israel, UKIP looks a more liberal party than the Liberal Democrats.
Ah, my coat. Thanks.
Every single member of the voting public must be made aware of what these two men are.
It is a remarkable achievement for the leadership to have taken a catastrophic situation in Scotland and made it quite a lot worse. We seem to be doing worse in Wales ... We’ve gone backwards amongst every demographic, every region of the country. Jeremy is behind Theresa May on managing the NHS! It’s quite a special achievement to put all of that together in a short period of time. Hats off to Jeremy and Seumas [Milne], Diane [Abbott] and John [McDonnell]. That’s pretty special.”
Unlike Jeremy and Seumas and others, who have no idea about government, who learned about socialism in expensive private schools, my politics was because of where I was from. I was born into the politics of Labour because I grew up in a pit village in the strike ...
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/where-labour-has-no-chance-hold-your-nose-and-vote-lib-dem
Absolute error greatest at 50% mark. Percentage error greatest at 1%. I think.
https://twitter.com/peatreebojangle/status/857236653395587073
And so it begins... The Labour party is out for the count.
The only mitigating circumstance is that it's got the dirty fingerprints of Lynton Crosby all over this personality driven campaign but she should remember that the British unlike the Australians like to see fair play
a) they can't fight the massive (even) visual evidence against them so they lie low in hope that those who are unaware of it all stay that way
b) to debate the accusations would bring Armageddon down on their heads, no holds barred and they would be electorally slaughtered, individually and collectively
c) they are cowards who ride the punch in the hope that the conversation ends there.
Regarding the last, it should not. If this were your actual war time, they would be charged with treason and aiding and abetting the enemy, banged up, tried and found guilty in seconds.
And honour has nothing to do with it. I doubt his guru, Milne, and his minders, McCluskey and McDonnell, can even spell it.
Mr. Smith, I wouldn't mind if Macron did, I backed Le Pen's vote share at 30-35% and 35-40% the other day (tiny stakes, but obviously green is green).
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/857261549802729474
MofE = 1.96 x Square root { ( Y x 100-Y ) divided by Z } where Y is % found and Z the sample size
so for sample size of 1000
Con at 48% MofE 3.1%
Lab at 26% MofE 2,6%
LD at 13% MofE 2.0%
On a sample of 1000:
50% = MoE of 3.09%
25% = MoE of 2.68%
10% = MoE of 1.86%
Furthermore, if his own Leader thinks he has clearly been unacceptable, even at the cost of damaging the party in the seat, that's a strong sign there's fire under this smoke - One thing we can say for sure about Farron after the last few days is he is not rushed into saying things.
@Sunil and @murali_s very sorry to hear your news.
On topic (is there one?) it was obvious that Jezza's desire for a united Ireland, free from the oppressive yoke of the imperial British state, gained after a violent uprising against the Crown Forces, would at some point be examined. Where's the surprise?
https://order-order.com/2013/01/25/watch-david-ward-car-crash-sky-jews-interview/
I've just whipped up a quick script and the MOE for a 1000 person poll for a 1000000 person population for a party at 48% is approx 3.1 and for 28% is 2.6%
The margin of error for someone polling at 1% would be 0.6%