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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first phone poll of the campaign has UKIP down to 4% and t

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    calum said:

    Just been reading an article in today's Scotsman with demands for Nicola to lay out her plans for a second referendum before the election. It includes it's own live poll and the figures were

    Conservatives 73%

    SNP 13%

    I am sure some will say it is a voodoo poll but +60 conservatives over SNP

    Needless to say no one else is worth quoting

    Has Nicola made a serious miscalculation over indy2

    With SNP still stuck in mid-40% support - she'll not be to concerned - a Tory landslide and SLAB annihilation would be perfect result for her !
    I just find the poll most unexpected. Is Ruth Davidson move to be the pro Union party going to win a lot more support than an Indy 2 party. All will be revealed on the 9th June
    It's a random vodoo poll on a low circulation paper that backed No at the he last IndyRef. It is about as valid as a lettuce leaf for telling us what is happening.
    So there is no truth in Ruth winning the Union vote
    Of course she is. Her entire Holyrood campaign was shouting NO SURRENDER TO INDYREF2.

    She basically rebranded as just the Unionist party dropping Conservative from election literature.

    This time round they are emboldened and have added Conservative back to their Juat Say No leaflets.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:

    GIN1138 said:
    “There is no floor Labour might not fall below,” - that was the quote that stood out for me.
    I keep saying there is, and they keep trying to convince me otherwise. Good job, Labour. Although as Nick and others have pointed out, weirdly in some respects they haven't been as low as it seems they could, scary as that is.
    The campaign has barely started. Labour can only go one way now.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Anorak said:

    Floater said:

    murali_s said:

    I don't know much about this guy but if all he has done is criticize Israel, what is all the fuss about? For goodness sake, Israel deserves a hell of lot of criticism - I wish our Government would actually step up to the plate and blast Israel for their repressive actions at times.
    You must remember that when the Israeli Government bombs children in Gaza whilst Israeli citizens have picnics on nearby hillsides cheering as the bombs fall , an army of Israeli supporters will come out of the woodwork to defend and justify their actions .
    You are David Ward and I claim my tenner
    When someone called just David reappears on here as they have done in the past you know the Israeli government has an interest in what is being discussed .
    Are you kidding or actually mental? You think the Israeli Government has actual interest in a tin-pot* political website in the UK?

    * In the most affectionate way. I didn't want to write that but my Zionist handlers insisted.
    Greetings from Tel Aviv (genuinely!)

    Fixed it for you in the post Brexit world:

    Are you kidding or actually mental? You think the Israeli Government has actual interest in a tin-pot* political website in the tin-pot UK?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    .... Corbyn's rating isn't much below EdM's, and there are probably more who really like him a lot. These are all low bars but the impression given by some that Corbyn is uniquely and almost universally despised is simply wrong.

    A post for which the well versed phrase "damned with faint praise" is undoubtedly most apt.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    NEW THREAD
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2017
    New thread >>>
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    calum said:

    Just been reading an article in today's Scotsman with demands for Nicola to lay out her plans for a second referendum before the election. It includes it's own live poll and the figures were

    Conservatives 73%

    SNP 13%

    I am sure some will say it is a voodoo poll but +60 conservatives over SNP

    Needless to say no one else is worth quoting

    Has Nicola made a serious miscalculation over indy2

    With SNP still stuck in mid-40% support - she'll not be to concerned - a Tory landslide and SLAB annihilation would be perfect result for her !
    I just find the poll most unexpected. Is Ruth Davidson move to be the pro Union party going to win a lot more support than an Indy 2 party. All will be revealed on the 9th June
    It's a random vodoo poll on a low circulation paper that backed No at the he last IndyRef. It is about as valid as a lettuce leaf for telling us what is happening.
    So there is no truth in Ruth winning the Union vote
    Of course she is. Her entire Holyrood campaign was shouting NO SURRENDER TO INDYREF2.

    She basically rebranded as just the Unionist party dropping Conservative from election literature.

    This time round they are emboldened and have added Conservative back to their Juat Say No leaflets.
    How do you expect the GE to work out for both the SNP and Conservatives
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    RobD said:

    MoE on a correctly sampled poll is 1.96*SQRT([p*(1-p)]/n) where p is the probability (from 0 to 1) and n is number of samples.

    On a sample of 1000:
    50% = MoE of 3.09%
    25% = MoE of 2.68%
    10% = MoE of 1.86%

    A bit late.. but here's the Monte Carlo approach that Alistair touched on. Solid lines are the simulation, dashed lines is using the formula. A perfect match!

    http://i.imgur.com/4zIdlJK.png
    Don't the theory and the Monte Carlo check both assume the 'normal distribution'. It might be a different distribution shape.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    HYUFD said:

    calum said:

    calum said:

    Just been reading an article in today's Scotsman with demands for Nicola to lay out her plans for a second referendum before the election. It includes it's own live poll and the figures were

    Conservatives 73%

    SNP 13%

    I am sure some will say it is a voodoo poll but +60 conservatives over SNP

    Needless to say no one else is worth quoting

    Has Nicola made a serious miscalculation over indy2

    With SNP still stuck in mid-40% support - she'll not be to concerned - a Tory landslide and SLAB annihilation would be perfect result for her !
    I just find the poll most unexpected. Is Ruth Davidson move to be the pro Union party going to win a lot more support than an Indy 2 party. All will be revealed on the 9th June
    The Scotsman is DT-lite equivalent - so "poll" is more of a readers survey. I think SCON are succeeding in polarising things down to Unionist v SNP/Green - with SCON being the only unionist party !!
    I expect the LDs to gain Edinburgh West from the SNP too
    Is a now 3 way fight - SNP could easily squeeze home ahead of SLID/SCON !!
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    kle4 said:

    ToryJim said:
    I cannot stand such self superiority (unless it's in the mirror). Hard working people vote Tory all the goddamn time, even if more typically vote Labour, and even that might not be true if the polls are right.

    From 9th June one may be able say that vastly more hardworking people vote Tory than Labour. Can a party unappealing to them fairly call itself 'Labour'?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    The campaign has barely started. Labour can only go one way now.

    But how far down is the essential question.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    surbiton said:

    For the 'Theresa May is only highly rated because Corbyn is rubbish school of denial thought':

    https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/857195587548192768

    Corbyn is better rated than Hague and Foot were vs Blair and Thatcher

    But that is perhaps the Labour numbers are so small that Corbyn raters are more numerous. Having said that, Labour numbers are comparable to 1983. So , maybe, Corbyn is doing better than Foot. Also, Scotland is different today.
    For that matter, Corbyn's rating isn't much below EdM's, and there are probably more who really like him a lot. These are all low bars but the impression given by some that Corbyn is uniquely and almost universally despised is simply wrong.
    Nick, the Tory press had five years to dis-credit Milliband and the press delivered for the Tories. The press hasn't even started on Corbyn yet and when they do, God help Labour. The next 6 weeks are going to be brutal - let's be honest about that. Sad sad times for the Labour party. Sadly all self inflicted. But that doesn't mean I am not upset - I am!

    The one thing I have learnt about politics is that leadership is key and why many on here put more emphasis on leadership polls rather than VI. Elect a dud as leader and you pay the price. Simply put, Jeremy Corbyn is crap - I know that, you know that, the country knows that.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    GIN1138 said:
    Does she write this in the UK or from her Tuscan home?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.

    I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.

    Sorry to hear that Sunil. However old or expected it's never easy and it just takes time.
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