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No. Asparagus Festival. The traditional season starts on St George's Day.calum said:
Cheers - is that spoons the guy is carrying?bobajobPB said:
I think it's supposed to be a piece of asparaguscalum said:
I didn't spot the dragon at first glance !Theuniondivvie said:Pics that look photoshopped but aren't, part 271.
https://twitter.com/Ned_Donovan/status/857139093024755712
Sparrow-grass provides thousands of jobs in that area.
Apparently the mascot is called Gus.0 -
Superfluous, ignore
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Crikey that is poor reporting! He blatantly didn't compare himself to Gandhi!!TheScreamingEagles said:Can we STOP taking the piss out of Clive Lewis, and start on Paul Nuttall now.
https://twitter.com/ExpressandStar/status/8571450178272952320 -
We are all agreed that these are allEssexman said:New poll from Panelbase: https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857155161969569792
(a) utterly ludicrous
and
(b) utterly unsurprising now.0 -
Well of course, he needed a few months to do the difficult sums to get the figures out.IanB2 said:
Lol he chose JanuaryRichard_Nabavi said:Kudos to Clive Lewis, at least he's not one of those Labour people who are in denial about what the national polls show,
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Just wait till #FaceApp do a nude option.TheScreamingEagles said:
I thought the picture of a naked Donald Trump would be the the most disturbing thing you'd ever post on PB.Theuniondivvie said:Don't have nightmares lads (& lasses).
twitter.com/naebD/status/857158247995904000
twitter.com/naebD/status/857154174336815104
How wrong I was.0 -
I said yesterday to Mike, in the past we'd have several threads on a single poll showing one party 22% ahead.BannedInParis said:
We are all agreed that these are allEssexman said:New poll from Panelbase: https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857155161969569792
(a) utterly ludicrous
and
(b) utterly unsurprising now.
Now, it's meh, and not even worth thread.0 -
We need an image - to see the power of 22 Theresas....TheScreamingEagles said:
I said yesterday to Mike, in the past we'd have several threads on a single poll showing one party 22% ahead.BannedInParis said:
We are all agreed that these are allEssexman said:New poll from Panelbase: https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857155161969569792
(a) utterly ludicrous
and
(b) utterly unsurprising now.
Now, it's meh, and not even thread.0 -
George 'kill the Nats stone dead' Robertson is standing?Essexman said:
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Milibandedmundintokyo said:
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.TheScreamingEagles said:So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
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Also, given that the seat has been a tight three-/four-way race for a while, his defeat wouldn't be much of a shock.DecrepitJohnL said:
I really doubt enough people have even heard of Clive Lewis or care whether he is re-elected or not.Essexman said:
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Milibandedmundintokyo said:
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.TheScreamingEagles said:So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
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Guardian (rolling blog):
"May has said that hat people should not trust the polls"
Indeed, they shouldn't.0 -
Especially of that hat is made of tin foil.rottenborough said:Guardian (rolling blog):
"May has said that hat people should not trust the polls"
Indeed, they shouldn't.0 -
Theuniondivvie said:
Especially of that hat is made of tin foil.rottenborough said:Guardian (rolling blog):
"May has said that hat people should not trust the polls"
Indeed, they shouldn't.
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Mr. Calum, cheers for that Stirling info.0
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I chatted to a Labour councillor friend this morning.MarqueeMark said:
We need an image - to see the power of 22 Theresas....TheScreamingEagles said:
I said yesterday to Mike, in the past we'd have several threads on a single poll showing one party 22% ahead.BannedInParis said:
We are all agreed that these are allEssexman said:New poll from Panelbase: https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857155161969569792
(a) utterly ludicrous
and
(b) utterly unsurprising now.
Now, it's meh, and not even thread.
He joked, if one smiley was used for every Tory gain on June 8th, you probably wouldn't be able to fit them into a single tweet.
He's spent the last few weeks campaigning for Labour in the locals.0 -
Indeed. Some sterling work from Stirling, you might say!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Calum, cheers for that Stirling info.
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Good news for Tim Farron. Gay sex is no longer the question every journalist is going to ask him...
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/8571574951476838410 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015TheScreamingEagles said:
I chatted to a Labour councillor friend this morning.MarqueeMark said:
We need an image - to see the power of 22 Theresas....TheScreamingEagles said:
I said yesterday to Mike, in the past we'd have several threads on a single poll showing one party 22% ahead.BannedInParis said:
We are all agreed that these are allEssexman said:New poll from Panelbase: https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857155161969569792
(a) utterly ludicrous
and
(b) utterly unsurprising now.
Now, it's meh, and not even thread.
He joked, if one smiley was used for every Tory gain on June 8th, you probably wouldn't be able to fit them into a single tweet.
He's spent the last few weeks campaigning for Labour in the locals.
Scottish polling0 -
Having a bit of a mare, isn't he?Scott_P said:Good news for Tim Farron. Gay sex is no longer the question every journalist is going to ask him...
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/8571574951476838410 -
OK, and I shall confine myself to enriching myself off your invaluable tips.AlastairMeeks said:
I have no intention of engaging with you further. You have this weird and unhealthy idea that my private life is in some way of the slightest relevance to political questions of the day. Until you understand that is utterly unacceptable, you are not a poster who I am going to respond to directly or indirectly.Ishmael_Z said:
You have been solidly trolling this site with the wildly inaccurate information quoted by Roger for getting on for a year now. You are happy to sit there playing an endless loop claiming that 51% of your fellow countrymen are xenophobic morons; you have been very clear that there are no exceptions to this rule, not even many of the posters on here who are patently not xenophobic and not moronic. If you can't take it, perhaps grow up and stop dishing it out?AlastairMeeks said:
Another example of the weirdo from the internet presuming to comment on my private life (once again, wildly inaccurately). Kindly desist and find yourself a healthier hobby.Ishmael_Z said:
Roger: there is no polling supporting that claim; indeed, the reverse.Roger said:If I was a premier league footballer who'd just scored the winning goal at Wembley and lifted my shirt to reveal my latest tattoo written in Tengwar It would be a line written by Alastair last night;
jnRrÈ y5^ wzRyE,É `C t1R7qYj^1T5# j$1TÉ 8z7E2$ @ y6Yzb% zjiE'iR y4% z|5$eHw^zT j`BiR
"Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies".
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
I cannot for the life of me see what I have ever said about your personal life, except what you have repeatedly told us, which is that you hang out in Hungary, which is an interesting EU member state and therefore potentially kind of relevant. Far from being unhealthily interested in you I have only just confirmed via google what I vaguely assumed, that you posted under your real name, and I have no intention whatever to find out anything else about you by googling or otherwise..
Cheers.0 -
If ipsos shows a tory lead of 50% i'm gonna maygasm0
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That SpreadEx figure is a net 56 gains since GE2015. There should be at least 2 to 4 off the SNP, leaving 52 to 54 net gains in England and Wales. A few existing seats will be lost to the LibDems, but I reckon not many (the LD spread midpoints are still too high). So perhaps that total implies a net 55 to 60 off Labour. To get that many, the Tories need something like a 7% swing, which is well in line with current polling.Pong said:Conservative seats up a couple of ticks;
SPIN 385
Spreadex 387
(midpoints)
A little further to go, I think, but maybe not a lot, unless the polling gets even better for TM.0 -
I think bestiality is a no no amongst the Christian types tooMarqueeMark said:
Having a bit of a mare, isn't he?Scott_P said:Good news for Tim Farron. Gay sex is no longer the question every journalist is going to ask him...
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/8571574951476838410 -
We need 22 George Osbornes, with red crosses through them.MarqueeMark said:
We need an image - to see the power of 22 Theresas....TheScreamingEagles said:
I said yesterday to Mike, in the past we'd have several threads on a single poll showing one party 22% ahead.BannedInParis said:
We are all agreed that these are allEssexman said:New poll from Panelbase: https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857155161969569792
(a) utterly ludicrous
and
(b) utterly unsurprising now.
Now, it's meh, and not even thread.0 -
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.TheScreamingEagles said:Peter Lilley standing down.
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Tories over 50%?Scott_P said:0 -
V, Cable isn't an MP, so is the 'moment' when he gets re-elected?Essexman said:
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Milibandedmundintokyo said:
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.TheScreamingEagles said:So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
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Mori have had them on 52.......... maybe higher?!Slackbladder said:
Tories over 50%?Scott_P said:0 -
Labour under 20%?Slackbladder said:
Tories over 50%?Scott_P said:0 -
or LibDems under 5%?Slackbladder said:
Tories over 50%?Scott_P said:0 -
Good point.Sandpit said:
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.TheScreamingEagles said:Peter Lilley standing down.
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'Fish Finger' may be a bet at 100/1 in Westmorland & Lonsdale.MarqueeMark said:
Having a bit of a mare, isn't he?Scott_P said:Good news for Tim Farron. Gay sex is no longer the question every journalist is going to ask him...
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/8571574951476838410 -
You do wonder if they will shelve the cut to 600 and get the boundary commission to start again on 650 MPsSandpit said:
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.TheScreamingEagles said:Peter Lilley standing down.
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It's Ipsos, more likely to have Lab with a 10-point lead.Slackbladder said:
Tories over 50%?Scott_P said:0 -
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@georgeeaton: Final pre-election PMQs today. Possible it's Corbyn's last.
@georgeeaton: But Corbyn allies say he will stay on even in event of defeat.0 -
The seats reduction might be cancelled -- the anti-Tory bias it was supposed to correct (and not even George Osborne's mum ever believed it was about saving money) was spurious in the first place and is now clearly seen to be, with Tories picking up seats in Wales and maybe in a few weeks, even in Scotland. To continue with it will just create a party management headache.Sandpit said:
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.TheScreamingEagles said:Peter Lilley standing down.
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@tnewtondunn: Today's Panelbase poll on Brexit: Remain 48%, Leave 52%. I now fear @Dannythefink is right - nobody is ever going to change their mind.0
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So the Jewish vote is going to be 99% Con.MarqueeMark said:
Having a bit of a mare, isn't he?Scott_P said:Good news for Tim Farron. Gay sex is no longer the question every journalist is going to ask him...
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/857157495147683841
Guido's going hard on David Ward, as he has done for years. Farron as leader needs to get well away from this - either he is in favour of antisemites being in his party or he isn't.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/26/david-ward-blames-west-pc-keith-palmers-murder/0 -
For Mori we can rule out the following I think:
UKIP High/Low (Didn't exist in the 70s & won't be a high)
Lib Dem High/Low (Not over 20%, and not polling a badly as 2015 GE was)
Green high or low (Not really news)
&
Tory Low (Almost impossible)
Labour High (Again can't happen unless it is a 1in a gazillion outlier)
Which leaves either
Lab Low
Tory High
Tory LEAD High.
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Should be "An historic poll", surely?Scott_P said:0 -
@RuthDavidsonMSP: Somebody's getting nervous.... twitter.com/TheScotsman/st…
https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/8571430810822574090 -
Intelligence and Security Committee says Reyaad Khan who was killed in a drone strike was a 'prolific recruiter and attack planner'
And Corbyn would not affirm he would sanction drone strikes.
He, Corbyn, is an ever present threat to the security of our Country and must be deposed0 -
Could be leader ratings.Pulpstar said:For Mori we can rule out the following I think:
UKIP High/Low (Didn't exist in the 70s & won't be a high)
Lib Dem High/Low (Not over 20%, and not polling a badly as 2015 GE was)
Green high or low (Not really news)
&
Tory Low (Almost impossible)
Labour High (Again can't happen unless it is a 1in a gazillion outlier)
Which leaves either
Lab Low
Tory High
Tory LEAD High.
via @GOsborneGenius ;
1983
Thatcher +9
Foot -39
Net +48 Thatcher
(MORI)0 -
Or maybe a Labour lead?Slackbladder said:
Tories over 50%?Scott_P said:0 -
We are all rallying behind Brexit as a single united nation.Scott_P said:@tnewtondunn: Today's Panelbase poll on Brexit: Remain 48%, Leave 52%. I now fear @Dannythefink is right - nobody is ever going to change their mind.
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It'll probably come down to how many senior Tories don't like the final recommendations. IDS is one for whom things may go the wrong way, although of course the PM might see that as an advantage. Since they have to review the Act anyway because of the timetable, and there's a general view that the rigid +/- 5% is too inflexible, they will have an excuse/opportunity to tell the BC to start again if they wish. Backing out of the 600 might be a bit more difficult because of the optics?GarethoftheVale2 said:
You do wonder if they will shelve the cut to 600 and get the boundary commission to start again on 650 MPsSandpit said:
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.TheScreamingEagles said:Peter Lilley standing down.
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There have been a few of those since the 1970s. Perhaps the long-awaited Lib Dem surge has finally materialised.Sean_F said:
Or maybe a Labour lead?Slackbladder said:
Tories over 50%?Scott_P said:
Or the Conservatives might have a 30+% lead.0 -
It's not inconceivable he'll be LOTOScott_P said:0 -
What do the SNP have to offer the Scottish Greens though ?!Scott_P said:@RuthDavidsonMSP: Somebody's getting nervous.... twitter.com/TheScotsman/st…
https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/857143081082257409
There is literally NO seat they can stand aside in. Edi South is a possible SNP Gain.
I guess they could stand aside in Orkney and Shetland, and let the Greens have a free tilt but that is hardly a target.0 -
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A LEAD of 50% is a tall order..... Tories on 65, Labour 15? I know it's bad, but.....nunu said:If ipsos shows a tory lead of 50% i'm gonna maygasm
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Or could he be leader of the opposition on 9 June?Scott_P said:0 -
What was the reason to reduce the number of MPs and has that changed?Sandpit said:
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.TheScreamingEagles said:Peter Lilley standing down.
Ministers say it will lower the "cost of politics" without reducing accountability.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-126508690 -
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I see both Tories and LDs have highlighted how many times over Labour are spending their planned corporation tax hike...
This is 1983 all over again. LDs split the Labour vote and Tories sail through the middle...0 -
What is Labour's historic LOW ?0
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0
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Clive Lewis due on Question Time tomorrow night0
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No need for MEPs and associated electoral costs now...? More work for Westminster given repatriation of powers?logical_song said:
What was the reason to reduce the number of MPs and has that changed?Sandpit said:
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.TheScreamingEagles said:Peter Lilley standing down.
Ministers say it will lower the "cost of politics" without reducing accountability.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12650869
Easy sell.0 -
I don't think the SNP would be offering anything.Pulpstar said:
What do the SNP have to offer the Scottish Greens though ?!Scott_P said:@RuthDavidsonMSP: Somebody's getting nervous.... twitter.com/TheScotsman/st…
https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/857143081082257409
There is literally NO seat they can stand aside in. Edi South is a possible SNP Gain.
I guess they could stand aside in Orkney and Shetland, and let the Greens have a free tilt but that is hardly a target.
Back in 2015 I was canvassed for the SNP by someone who was going to be voting Green at the 2016 Holyrood election. Amongst the strong pro-indy Greens (and that makes up the majority of their post indyref members intake) there is a feeling that Holyrood and Westminster are different things.
As the article points out the Greens don't stand in every single seat anyways so it's just a case of trimming candidates from some seats and adding candidates to previously bare ones.0 -
Reading Polly Toynbee column in the garudian I fear she might self combust before a vote is even cast.0
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It now says: OK UKIP, you know what to do if you want to get rid of the prat.....Scott_P said:He has changed the wording
https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/8571781755032944650 -
PoliticsHomeVerified account @politicshome 33m33 minutes ago
NEW - EXCL Labour to launch general election manifesto on 15 May0 -
Cheers - it's also Michael Forsyth's old seat - retaking it would be a bit a reverse Portillo moment !Disraeli said:
Indeed. Some sterling work from Stirling, you might say!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Calum, cheers for that Stirling info.
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Recent polling from where? Around his dinner table?Scott_P said:He has changed the wording
twitter.com/labourlewis/status/8571781755032944650 -
Shurely shome mistake? That should read 9th June.marke09 said:PoliticsHomeVerified account @politicshome 33m33 minutes ago
NEW - EXCL Labour to launch general election manifesto on 15 May0 -
Tricky to see London being any "records" with the demographic changes making it trend broadly Labour.MarqueeMark said:
I reckon Tories down, Labour down more (Still ahead) Lib Dem up in London.0 -
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Nah that's just when williamglenn starts his work in earnest....rottenborough said:
Shurely shome mistake? That should read 9th June.marke09 said:PoliticsHomeVerified account @politicshome 33m33 minutes ago
NEW - EXCL Labour to launch general election manifesto on 15 May0 -
They were warned. Not least by us on PB for last two years. Oblivion awaits.Scott_P said:0 -
My polling analysis produces:
Con 30
Lab 32
Lib Dem 17
UKIP 5
Green 14
For Norwich South by the way.0 -
Polling analysis... Take a national poll and play with it a bit until you get your Norwich bar chart.FrancisUrquhart said:
Recent polling from where? Around his dinner table?Scott_P said:He has changed the wording
twitter.com/labourlewis/status/8571781755032944650 -
On sky again repeating the nobody wants or understands this GE....Tap mic...Sniff sniff...Fake news!0
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Really? Isn't that quite late in the day? Says a politics geek of coursemarke09 said:PoliticsHomeVerified account @politicshome 33m33 minutes ago
NEW - EXCL Labour to launch general election manifesto on 15 May0 -
For the record, last month's Ipsos MORI gave the Tories a 13% lead. 43% to 30%0
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I think I have found the source of Clive lewis polling...
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The later the better for moderate Labour: gives Tories less time to cost it out and draw up a poster campaign.Freggles said:
Really? Isn't that quite late in the day? Says a politics geek of coursemarke09 said:PoliticsHomeVerified account @politicshome 33m33 minutes ago
NEW - EXCL Labour to launch general election manifesto on 15 May0 -
If UKIP have any sense they won't run a candidate in Norwich South.
Of course it was a Lib Dem seat in 2010 - I reckon this morning's bar chart might just fire up the campaign there 0 -
Right I think this might be the biggest Tory lead in a general election campaign, if I've read Bobby's message right
https://twitter.com/BobbyIpsosMORI/status/8571793823974031380 -
I think a true Portillo moment has to be about the MP losing a seat rather than a challenger gaining one. It's about the winning party unseating one of their most disliked opponents in a dramatic manner. So in 2015 i'd say there were 3 Portillo moments: Ed Balls (the closest to a true portillo moment), Vince Cable (because even when the LDs were dropping like flies, people seemed sure his personal standing would see him survive the carnage), and Douglas Alexander (he ran the election campaign for Slab, and had a huge majority overturned by a 20 year old paper candidate still at uni).logical_song said:
V, Cable isn't an MP, so is the 'moment' when he gets re-elected?Essexman said:
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Milibandedmundintokyo said:
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.TheScreamingEagles said:So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
Potential portillo moments in 2017:
Angus Robertson - the scottish tories would LOVE to take this one, huge scalp for them if they manage it.
Ed Miliband - a former leader losing their seat would be huge, would really indicate total wipeout for Labour (tempered by the fact that I don't think tories hate Ed in the same way they hated Balls in 2015, so won't compare to Morley and Outwood).
Nick Clegg - former deputy PM losing would be practically unheard of, if it happens it likely indicates a catastrophic night for the LDs (but I don't see much chance of this one happening)
Kate Hoey - unlikely, but I think LDs would love to take this seat, and many Labour people would probably wish them well - she is extremely unpopular amongst many of the 'left'.
Emily Thornberry - closest person to Corbyn himself who has a chance of losing their seat. But with the tories in 2nd in 2015, yet being otherwise a good LD seat, I think tactical voting will fail and she is fine.
any others?
With Labour in such dire straits there are several lesser portillo moments where big names like Yvette Cooper lose their seat, but they would still lack the symbolism of a true Portillo.0 -
Time to lay Lewis? Anyone know the state of local UKIP in Norwich? Seems to me a lot of whether there will be a candidate is down to whether the local party still functions post-Brexit.Pulpstar said:If UKIP have any sense they won't run a candidate in Norwich South.
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14 April for a 7 May election in 2015, so same gap.Freggles said:
Really? Isn't that quite late in the day? Says a politics geek of coursemarke09 said:PoliticsHomeVerified account @politicshome 33m33 minutes ago
NEW - EXCL Labour to launch general election manifesto on 15 May0 -
Unfortunately Shami can't lose her seat.Paristonda said:
I think a true Portillo moment has to be about the MP losing a seat rather than a challenger gaining one. It's about the winning party unseating one of their most disliked opponents in a dramatic manner. So in 2015 i'd say there were 3 Portillo moments: Ed Balls (the closest to a true portillo moment), Vince Cable (because even when the LDs were dropping like flies, people seemed sure his personal standing would see him survive the carnage), and Douglas Alexander (he ran the election campaign for Slab, and had a huge majority overturned by a 20 year old paper candidate still at uni).logical_song said:
V, Cable isn't an MP, so is the 'moment' when he gets re-elected?Essexman said:
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Milibandedmundintokyo said:
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.TheScreamingEagles said:So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
Potential portillo moments in 2017:
Angus Robertson - the scottish tories would LOVE to take this one, huge scalp for them if they manage it.
Ed Miliband - a former leader losing their seat would be huge, would really indicate total wipeout for Labour (tempered by the fact that I don't think tories hate Ed in the same way they hated Balls in 2015, so won't compare to Morley and Outwood).
Nick Clegg - former deputy PM losing would be practically unheard of, if it happens it likely indicates a catastrophic night for the LDs (but I don't see much chance of this one happening)
Kate Hoey - unlikely, but I think LDs would love to take this seat, and many Labour people would probably wish them well - she is extremely unpopular amongst many of the 'left'.
Emily Thornberry - closest person to Corbyn himself who has a chance of losing their seat. But with the tories in 2nd in 2015, yet being otherwise a good LD seat, I think tactical voting will fail and she is fine.
any others?
With Labour in such dire straits there are several lesser portillo moments where big names like Yvette Cooper lose their seat, but they would still lack the symbolism of a true Portillo.0 -
Well at least they're going to get it out before the election.marke09 said:PoliticsHomeVerified account @politicshome 33m33 minutes ago
NEW - EXCL Labour to launch general election manifesto on 15 May0 -
Greens should do well next week - I'd expect to see a few SNP/Green councils !Alistair said:
I don't think the SNP would be offering anything.Pulpstar said:
What do the SNP have to offer the Scottish Greens though ?!Scott_P said:@RuthDavidsonMSP: Somebody's getting nervous.... twitter.com/TheScotsman/st…
https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/857143081082257409
There is literally NO seat they can stand aside in. Edi South is a possible SNP Gain.
I guess they could stand aside in Orkney and Shetland, and let the Greens have a free tilt but that is hardly a target.
Back in 2015 I was canvassed for the SNP by someone who was going to be voting Green at the 2016 Holyrood election. Amongst the strong pro-indy Greens (and that makes up the majority of their post indyref members intake) there is a feeling that Holyrood and Westminster are different things.
As the article points out the Greens don't stand in every single seat anyways so it's just a case of trimming candidates from some seats and adding candidates to previously bare ones.0 -
Better out than in.Rhubarb said:
Well at least they're going to get it out before the election.marke09 said:PoliticsHomeVerified account @politicshome 33m33 minutes ago
NEW - EXCL Labour to launch general election manifesto on 15 May0 -
Ipsos Mori
Con 49 (+6) Lab 26 (-4) LD 13 (nc) UKIP 4 (-2)
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-with-huge-poll-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-poll-reveals-a3524136.html0 -
Not quite the 50TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori
Con 49 (+6) Lab 26 (-4) LD 13 (nc) UKIP 4 (-2)
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-with-huge-poll-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-poll-reveals-a3524136.html0
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