So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Miliband
George 'kill the Nats stone dead' Robertson is standing?
So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Miliband
I really doubt enough people have even heard of Clive Lewis or care whether he is re-elected or not.
Also, given that the seat has been a tight three-/four-way race for a while, his defeat wouldn't be much of a shock.
If I was a premier league footballer who'd just scored the winning goal at Wembley and lifted my shirt to reveal my latest tattoo written in Tengwar It would be a line written by Alastair last night;
"Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies".
Roger: there is no polling supporting that claim; indeed, the reverse.
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
Another example of the weirdo from the internet presuming to comment on my private life (once again, wildly inaccurately). Kindly desist and find yourself a healthier hobby.
You have been solidly trolling this site with the wildly inaccurate information quoted by Roger for getting on for a year now. You are happy to sit there playing an endless loop claiming that 51% of your fellow countrymen are xenophobic morons; you have been very clear that there are no exceptions to this rule, not even many of the posters on here who are patently not xenophobic and not moronic. If you can't take it, perhaps grow up and stop dishing it out?
I have no intention of engaging with you further. You have this weird and unhealthy idea that my private life is in some way of the slightest relevance to political questions of the day. Until you understand that is utterly unacceptable, you are not a poster who I am going to respond to directly or indirectly.
OK, and I shall confine myself to enriching myself off your invaluable tips.
I cannot for the life of me see what I have ever said about your personal life, except what you have repeatedly told us, which is that you hang out in Hungary, which is an interesting EU member state and therefore potentially kind of relevant. Far from being unhealthily interested in you I have only just confirmed via google what I vaguely assumed, that you posted under your real name, and I have no intention whatever to find out anything else about you by googling or otherwise..
That SpreadEx figure is a net 56 gains since GE2015. There should be at least 2 to 4 off the SNP, leaving 52 to 54 net gains in England and Wales. A few existing seats will be lost to the LibDems, but I reckon not many (the LD spread midpoints are still too high). So perhaps that total implies a net 55 to 60 off Labour. To get that many, the Tories need something like a 7% swing, which is well in line with current polling.
A little further to go, I think, but maybe not a lot, unless the polling gets even better for TM.
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Miliband
V, Cable isn't an MP, so is the 'moment' when he gets re-elected?
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
You do wonder if they will shelve the cut to 600 and get the boundary commission to start again on 650 MPs
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
The seats reduction might be cancelled -- the anti-Tory bias it was supposed to correct (and not even George Osborne's mum ever believed it was about saving money) was spurious in the first place and is now clearly seen to be, with Tories picking up seats in Wales and maybe in a few weeks, even in Scotland. To continue with it will just create a party management headache.
UKIP High/Low (Didn't exist in the 70s & won't be a high) Lib Dem High/Low (Not over 20%, and not polling a badly as 2015 GE was) Green high or low (Not really news) & Tory Low (Almost impossible) Labour High (Again can't happen unless it is a 1in a gazillion outlier)
UKIP High/Low (Didn't exist in the 70s & won't be a high) Lib Dem High/Low (Not over 20%, and not polling a badly as 2015 GE was) Green high or low (Not really news) & Tory Low (Almost impossible) Labour High (Again can't happen unless it is a 1in a gazillion outlier)
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
You do wonder if they will shelve the cut to 600 and get the boundary commission to start again on 650 MPs
It'll probably come down to how many senior Tories don't like the final recommendations. IDS is one for whom things may go the wrong way, although of course the PM might see that as an advantage. Since they have to review the Act anyway because of the timetable, and there's a general view that the rigid +/- 5% is too inflexible, they will have an excuse/opportunity to tell the BC to start again if they wish. Backing out of the 600 might be a bit more difficult because of the optics?
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
What was the reason to reduce the number of MPs and has that changed? Ministers say it will lower the "cost of politics" without reducing accountability. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12650869
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
What was the reason to reduce the number of MPs and has that changed? Ministers say it will lower the "cost of politics" without reducing accountability. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12650869
No need for MEPs and associated electoral costs now...? More work for Westminster given repatriation of powers?
What do the SNP have to offer the Scottish Greens though ?!
There is literally NO seat they can stand aside in. Edi South is a possible SNP Gain.
I guess they could stand aside in Orkney and Shetland, and let the Greens have a free tilt but that is hardly a target.
I don't think the SNP would be offering anything.
Back in 2015 I was canvassed for the SNP by someone who was going to be voting Green at the 2016 Holyrood election. Amongst the strong pro-indy Greens (and that makes up the majority of their post indyref members intake) there is a feeling that Holyrood and Westminster are different things.
As the article points out the Greens don't stand in every single seat anyways so it's just a case of trimming candidates from some seats and adding candidates to previously bare ones.
So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Miliband
V, Cable isn't an MP, so is the 'moment' when he gets re-elected?
I think a true Portillo moment has to be about the MP losing a seat rather than a challenger gaining one. It's about the winning party unseating one of their most disliked opponents in a dramatic manner. So in 2015 i'd say there were 3 Portillo moments: Ed Balls (the closest to a true portillo moment), Vince Cable (because even when the LDs were dropping like flies, people seemed sure his personal standing would see him survive the carnage), and Douglas Alexander (he ran the election campaign for Slab, and had a huge majority overturned by a 20 year old paper candidate still at uni).
Potential portillo moments in 2017:
Angus Robertson - the scottish tories would LOVE to take this one, huge scalp for them if they manage it.
Ed Miliband - a former leader losing their seat would be huge, would really indicate total wipeout for Labour (tempered by the fact that I don't think tories hate Ed in the same way they hated Balls in 2015, so won't compare to Morley and Outwood).
Nick Clegg - former deputy PM losing would be practically unheard of, if it happens it likely indicates a catastrophic night for the LDs (but I don't see much chance of this one happening)
Kate Hoey - unlikely, but I think LDs would love to take this seat, and many Labour people would probably wish them well - she is extremely unpopular amongst many of the 'left'.
Emily Thornberry - closest person to Corbyn himself who has a chance of losing their seat. But with the tories in 2nd in 2015, yet being otherwise a good LD seat, I think tactical voting will fail and she is fine.
any others?
With Labour in such dire straits there are several lesser portillo moments where big names like Yvette Cooper lose their seat, but they would still lack the symbolism of a true Portillo.
If UKIP have any sense they won't run a candidate in Norwich South.
Time to lay Lewis? Anyone know the state of local UKIP in Norwich? Seems to me a lot of whether there will be a candidate is down to whether the local party still functions post-Brexit.
So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Miliband
V, Cable isn't an MP, so is the 'moment' when he gets re-elected?
I think a true Portillo moment has to be about the MP losing a seat rather than a challenger gaining one. It's about the winning party unseating one of their most disliked opponents in a dramatic manner. So in 2015 i'd say there were 3 Portillo moments: Ed Balls (the closest to a true portillo moment), Vince Cable (because even when the LDs were dropping like flies, people seemed sure his personal standing would see him survive the carnage), and Douglas Alexander (he ran the election campaign for Slab, and had a huge majority overturned by a 20 year old paper candidate still at uni).
Potential portillo moments in 2017:
Angus Robertson - the scottish tories would LOVE to take this one, huge scalp for them if they manage it.
Ed Miliband - a former leader losing their seat would be huge, would really indicate total wipeout for Labour (tempered by the fact that I don't think tories hate Ed in the same way they hated Balls in 2015, so won't compare to Morley and Outwood).
Nick Clegg - former deputy PM losing would be practically unheard of, if it happens it likely indicates a catastrophic night for the LDs (but I don't see much chance of this one happening)
Kate Hoey - unlikely, but I think LDs would love to take this seat, and many Labour people would probably wish them well - she is extremely unpopular amongst many of the 'left'.
Emily Thornberry - closest person to Corbyn himself who has a chance of losing their seat. But with the tories in 2nd in 2015, yet being otherwise a good LD seat, I think tactical voting will fail and she is fine.
any others?
With Labour in such dire straits there are several lesser portillo moments where big names like Yvette Cooper lose their seat, but they would still lack the symbolism of a true Portillo.
What do the SNP have to offer the Scottish Greens though ?!
There is literally NO seat they can stand aside in. Edi South is a possible SNP Gain.
I guess they could stand aside in Orkney and Shetland, and let the Greens have a free tilt but that is hardly a target.
I don't think the SNP would be offering anything.
Back in 2015 I was canvassed for the SNP by someone who was going to be voting Green at the 2016 Holyrood election. Amongst the strong pro-indy Greens (and that makes up the majority of their post indyref members intake) there is a feeling that Holyrood and Westminster are different things.
As the article points out the Greens don't stand in every single seat anyways so it's just a case of trimming candidates from some seats and adding candidates to previously bare ones.
Greens should do well next week - I'd expect to see a few SNP/Green councils !
Comments
Sparrow-grass provides thousands of jobs in that area.
Apparently the mascot is called Gus.
*Well followed the advice of a couple of PBers
(a) utterly ludicrous
and
(b) utterly unsurprising now.
Now, it's meh, and not even worth thread.
"May has said that hat people should not trust the polls"
Indeed, they shouldn't.
He joked, if one smiley was used for every Tory gain on June 8th, you probably wouldn't be able to fit them into a single tweet.
He's spent the last few weeks campaigning for Labour in the locals.
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/857157495147683841
Scottish polling
I cannot for the life of me see what I have ever said about your personal life, except what you have repeatedly told us, which is that you hang out in Hungary, which is an interesting EU member state and therefore potentially kind of relevant. Far from being unhealthily interested in you I have only just confirmed via google what I vaguely assumed, that you posted under your real name, and I have no intention whatever to find out anything else about you by googling or otherwise..
Cheers.
A little further to go, I think, but maybe not a lot, unless the polling gets even better for TM.
@georgeeaton: But Corbyn allies say he will stay on even in event of defeat.
Guido's going hard on David Ward, as he has done for years. Farron as leader needs to get well away from this - either he is in favour of antisemites being in his party or he isn't.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/26/david-ward-blames-west-pc-keith-palmers-murder/
UKIP High/Low (Didn't exist in the 70s & won't be a high)
Lib Dem High/Low (Not over 20%, and not polling a badly as 2015 GE was)
Green high or low (Not really news)
&
Tory Low (Almost impossible)
Labour High (Again can't happen unless it is a 1in a gazillion outlier)
Which leaves either
Lab Low
Tory High
Tory LEAD High.
https://twitter.com/thescotsman/status/857143081082257409
And Corbyn would not affirm he would sanction drone strikes.
He, Corbyn, is an ever present threat to the security of our Country and must be deposed
via @GOsborneGenius ;
1983
Thatcher +9
Foot -39
Net +48 Thatcher
(MORI)
Though I've had this debate on here before: non historians seem chary...
Or the Conservatives might have a 30+% lead.
There is literally NO seat they can stand aside in. Edi South is a possible SNP Gain.
I guess they could stand aside in Orkney and Shetland, and let the Greens have a free tilt but that is hardly a target.
https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/857173459079712769
Ministers say it will lower the "cost of politics" without reducing accountability.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12650869
This is 1983 all over again. LDs split the Labour vote and Tories sail through the middle...
https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/857178175503294465
Easy sell.
Back in 2015 I was canvassed for the SNP by someone who was going to be voting Green at the 2016 Holyrood election. Amongst the strong pro-indy Greens (and that makes up the majority of their post indyref members intake) there is a feeling that Holyrood and Westminster are different things.
As the article points out the Greens don't stand in every single seat anyways so it's just a case of trimming candidates from some seats and adding candidates to previously bare ones.
NEW - EXCL Labour to launch general election manifesto on 15 May
I reckon Tories down, Labour down more (Still ahead) Lib Dem up in London.
Con 30
Lab 32
Lib Dem 17
UKIP 5
Green 14
For Norwich South by the way.
Of course it was a Lib Dem seat in 2010 - I reckon this morning's bar chart might just fire up the campaign there
https://twitter.com/BobbyIpsosMORI/status/857179382397403138
Potential portillo moments in 2017:
Angus Robertson - the scottish tories would LOVE to take this one, huge scalp for them if they manage it.
Ed Miliband - a former leader losing their seat would be huge, would really indicate total wipeout for Labour (tempered by the fact that I don't think tories hate Ed in the same way they hated Balls in 2015, so won't compare to Morley and Outwood).
Nick Clegg - former deputy PM losing would be practically unheard of, if it happens it likely indicates a catastrophic night for the LDs (but I don't see much chance of this one happening)
Kate Hoey - unlikely, but I think LDs would love to take this seat, and many Labour people would probably wish them well - she is extremely unpopular amongst many of the 'left'.
Emily Thornberry - closest person to Corbyn himself who has a chance of losing their seat. But with the tories in 2nd in 2015, yet being otherwise a good LD seat, I think tactical voting will fail and she is fine.
any others?
With Labour in such dire straits there are several lesser portillo moments where big names like Yvette Cooper lose their seat, but they would still lack the symbolism of a true Portillo.
Con 49 (+6) Lab 26 (-4) LD 13 (nc) UKIP 4 (-2)
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tories-with-huge-poll-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-poll-reveals-a3524136.html