Only two of the LD seats really look comfortable at present - how many are for sure safe? Amazing how many are clustered together in the middle there. I wish them good luck (if MarkS can believe that from a person like me)
Orkney and Shetland is ultra safe. Ceredigion on my welsh analysis was massively safe too, we'll gain Cardiff Central back too. England more mixed.
Think Mark Williams may have a bit of a fight on hios hands now as Plaid have selected a locally born young lad to run for them - his family are well known in the area as both grandfather and father were police officers so he could do well with the Welsh language voters around
The timing of the election might dent the LD/Labour vote a bit - most of the students in Aber will have gone home by 8th June.
Similar story in lots of uni seats.
Labour are well out of it anyway not held the seat since 1974 and were 4th last time
marke09 - do you have any more info re the plaid candidate - as I can't find anything on google - thanks
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
In polls (started in 1943), for an opposition, 23%, once in 1983 and once just a few days ago. But I believe Gordon B chalked up a 19% poll whilst in office.
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
Shows how dreadful Cameron was, his resignation has saved the Conservative Party
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
Remarkable for a PM in Office for less than a year
They were warned. Not least by us on PB for last two years. Oblivion awaits.
I think a hail mary pass is becoming increasingly likely. Some sort of forced coup, all nominate some sort of caretaker candidate, and that will be who they support for PM, not Jeremy, probably Watson although ideally a Jarvis type. The Labour party is too internally divided to effectively expel all their MPs for this treachery, so they could get away with it. It risks a huge split vote, but if they are going to go down, at least they wouldn't be going down for Corbyn, and they may limit the losses, especially if this new group could come to some arrangements with the LDs.
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
Shows how dreadful Cameron was, his resignation has saved the Conservative Party
Were you born stupid or do you have to work at it?
Lol sky have Lucy Powell and Mr green on to discuss GE campaigns...And Lucy starts with a load of bollocks about it being a short GE campaign.
New Labour playbook. Lesson 101: There is a permanent campaign. Everything you do in the three or fours years before the GE has been baked into the subsequent result.
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
Shows how dreadful Cameron was, his resignation has saved the Conservative Party
Were you born stupid or do you have to work at it?
Dave took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
It's not impossible that May will match that number of gains.
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
Shows how dreadful Cameron was, his resignation has saved the Conservative Party
Were you born stupid or do you have to work at it?
Dave took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
That's it and within a year of his resignation the majority goes from 12 to 150.
PS don't bother with the insults it just makes YOU look stupid
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
Shows how dreadful Cameron was, his resignation has saved the Conservative Party
Were you born stupid or do you have to work at it?
Dave took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
It's not impossible that May will match that number of gains.
She could certainly outdo the gains he made in either 2010 or 2015, and neither of those was from a position of majority government.
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
Shows how dreadful Cameron was, his resignation has saved the Conservative Party
Were you born stupid or do you have to work at it?
Dave took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
It's not impossible that May will match that number of gains.
All these polls are consistent and this is before the campaign starts. Is it possible that labour could be wiped out once Corbyn is exposed even more to the pressure of a GE campaign
Mr. Essexit, it may be the stench of hypocrisy. Few years ago she was bleating about the evils of air travel, whilst jetting hither and thither. Different rules for the little people, you see.
Mr. Choose and Mr. Eagles, this is meant to be a happy website. Let's not argue about who killed who.
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
Shows how dreadful Cameron was, his resignation has saved the Conservative Party
Were you born stupid or do you have to work at it?
Dave took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
That's it and within a year of his resignation the majority goes from 12 to 150.
(Snip)
In very, very unusual circumstances. We are seeing two political parties collapse: Labour and UKIP, and some voters from both of these going to just one party. May's not responsible for either of those collapses: Corbyn and Brexit are (and in fact she was on the 'wrong' side of Brexit).
To giver her credit, she's played the game of keeping pressure on these parties well. But she wouldn't be where she is if it were not for Cameron: both directly (through the referendum) and indirectly (through the detoxification of the party Cameron started).
Howard also requires a lot of the credit as well, IMO.
But we shouldn't count our chickens before they're hatched: the election's still a few weeks away Corbyn still has time to cure cancer, grow the magical money tree, and bring world peace.
Labour polling numbers do seem to be holding up at 25-26%. Slight danger for Tories is people think they will win easy and so protest by switching back to ukip.
I think Labour's position is probably a bit worse than this. Let's face it, there are many people who would never admit to voting Tory in a million years who are going to do it anyway simply to cleanse Labour of Jezza.
FWIW my Labour councillor friend in Sheffield has said he won't be spending any time in Sheffield Hallam, as that would be a waste of time, but he'll be in Sheffield Central where Labour could be at risk.
Lab are 30% ahead of the Greens who are in 2nd place!!!!
In polls (started in 1943), for an opposition, 23%, once in 1983 and once just a few days ago. But I believe Gordon B chalked up a 19% poll whilst in office.
Mr. Essexit, it may be the stench of hypocrisy. Few years ago she was bleating about the evils of air travel, whilst jetting hither and thither. Different rules for the little people, you see.
Mr. Choose and Mr. Eagles, this is meant to be a happy website. Let's not argue about who killed who.
Let's not forget the shrill voice, the voting against Article 50, the patronising attitude...
FWIW my Labour councillor friend in Sheffield has said he won't be spending any time in Sheffield Hallam, as that would be a waste of time, but he'll be in Sheffield Central where Labour could be at risk.
Lab are 30% ahead of the Greens who are in 2nd place!!!!
I think Labour's position is probably a bit worse than this. Let's face it, there are many people who would never admit to voting Tory in a million years who are going to do it anyway simply to cleanse Labour of Jezza.
...the Tories seem to be shedding their 'shy' vote. I've seen loads of people interviewed on TV recently almost proudly exclaiming that they're voting Tory.
Labour polling numbers do seem to be holding up at 25-26%. Slight danger for Tories is people think they will win easy and so protest by switching back to ukip.
Switches off
Didn't reference highly obscure by-election, no mention of heart-attacks. 6/10
I think Labour's position is probably a bit worse than this. Let's face it, there are many people who would never admit to voting Tory in a million years who are going to do it anyway simply to cleanse Labour of Jezza.
...the Tories seem to be shedding their 'shy' vote. I've seen loads of people interviewed on TV recently almost proudly exclaiming that they're voting Tory.
The cardiff voxpops last night. The best labour got was "oh, I'm not sure".
FWIW my Labour councillor friend in Sheffield has said he won't be spending any time in Sheffield Hallam, as that would be a waste of time, but he'll be in Sheffield Central where Labour could be at risk.
Lab are 30% ahead of the Greens who are in 2nd place!!!!
Does anyone have a list/total of the number of seats Labour came from third to win in 1997?
Seats gained from third place Sittingbourne and Sheppey, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Shrewsbury and Atcham, gained by Labour from the Conservatives St. Albans, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Oldham East and Saddleworth, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Leeds North West, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Hastings and Rye, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Falmouth and Camborne, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Conwy, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Bristol West, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Aberdeen South, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
(Also, Mid Ulster, gained by Sinn Féin from the DUP)
Seats gained from fourth place Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber, gained by Labour from the Liberal Democrats
Does anyone have a list/total of the number of seats Labour came from third to win in 1997?
Seats gained from third place Sittingbourne and Sheppey, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Shrewsbury and Atcham, gained by Labour from the Conservatives St. Albans, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Oldham East and Saddleworth, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Leeds North West, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Hastings and Rye, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Falmouth and Camborne, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Conwy, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Bristol West, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Aberdeen South, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
(Also, Mid Ulster, gained by Sinn Féin from the DUP)
Seats gained from fourht place Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber, gained by Labour from the Liberal Democrats
Cheers. I'm trying to work how likely it is this time for the Tories.
When they are polling close to 50% and leading by 20% plus, UNS goes out of the window
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
What was the reason to reduce the number of MPs and has that changed? Ministers say it will lower the "cost of politics" without reducing accountability. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12650869
It was promised by David Cameron in the wake of the expenses scandal (2009, where did eight years go?) as a reduction in the cost of politics and politicians.
To abandon (again) the Boundary Commission would cost as much as the savings that would have been made over the past few years. The boundaries are now well out of date and need updating. Some MPs (especially the new ones in June) are going to be discounted, but for politicians to keep delaying it for their own self interest makes us start to look like the US Congress.
On those numbers Electoral Calculus has Con gain Brighton Pavilion.
and Bristol West...
And all of Stoke. And Sedgefield.
Stoke Central was at 5-1 with Paddy, which is mad considering UKIP are collapsing like a house of cards. Look up Crosby last parliament.
I tipped Stoke Central to be the new Eastleigh.
Tories finish third in the by election but take the seat at the GE.
I backed it last night.
The basis for the different odds purely seems to be off the back of the recent by-election, which was obvs held under Corbyn's reign, but generals are different.
One big problem the LDs had is no matter the polling disaster it is very difficult to tell friends and colleagues that there won't be any party money to save their jobs. Labour will now be in a similar position - at risk of having to spread resources across 150 defences. Maybe gains (!) as well.
FWIW my Labour councillor friend in Sheffield has said he won't be spending any time in Sheffield Hallam, as that would be a waste of time, but he'll be in Sheffield Central where Labour could be at risk.
Lab are 30% ahead of the Greens who are in 2nd place!!!!
Bennett is running there for the Greens.
Labour are safe then.
Well its one seat I won't be backing the Tories in, it is left wing of leftwing McShire.
Hillsborough might see a big swing to the Tories, though Labour will hold it very comfortably.
The LDs still don't seem to have any real sign of a surge, and support is soft. I think as others have said, their comeback has come too soon, and they are being swamped by huge tory gains. A referendum on Corbyn doesn't help them much, and so far there are signs that the GE is becoming about this more than it is about Brexit.
I'm increasingly confident on my big payout of this election, LDs sub 19 seats.
I also have a nice treble on tories 400-450, Lab 100-150, and LDs 10-19, which seems like it could easily end up that way.
I actually joined the LDs the other day, first time I've ever joined a political party. So it's not all negative news for them!
Labour polling numbers do seem to be holding up at 25-26%. Slight danger for Tories is people think they will win easy and so protest by switching back to ukip.
Switches off
Didn't reference highly obscure by-election, no mention of heart-attacks. 6/10
Or horrible complications from Type 1 diabetes or polonium. Must try harder.
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
What was the reason to reduce the number of MPs and has that changed? Ministers say it will lower the "cost of politics" without reducing accountability. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12650869
It was promised by David Cameron in the wake of the expenses scandal (2009, where did eight years go?) as a reduction in the cost of politics and politicians.
To abandon (again) the Boundary Commission would cost as much as the savings that would have been made over the past few years. The boundaries are now well out of date and need updating. Some MPs (especially the new ones in June) are going to be discounted, but for politicians to keep delaying it for their own self interest makes us start to look like the US Congress.
There is no need to delay it any further , plenty of time for the BC to do the whole job to slightly different rules before the 2021/2022 GE .
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
Shows how dreadful Cameron was, his resignation has saved the Conservative Party
Were you born stupid or do you have to work at it?
Dave took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
It's not impossible that May will match that number of gains.
That would imply Labour sub 100 seats.
Possible
I've been betting heavily on Labour 100 - 149 seats and also on Con Majorities in the 150-200 range. But I've also taken out some insurance bets at what now seem like truly fantastic odds - a tenner here or there covers me at about 12/1 on Labour seats and at 16/1 - 40/1 on Con majority + 200 - just so I'm still neutral / slightly green if things get worse for Labour.
The fact that I'm even imagining this is possible says everything about how pessimistic I am of Labour's chances at the moment.
It's been said by several commentators here that Labour has a firewall of seats with 10,000 majorities of about 120.
But just how low could Labour go? Is there value in increasing my position on bets that imply Labour sub 100 seats? Even a tenner on a few throwaway bets....
You can still get Labour at 8 on Betfair for under 100 seats (I got on for a tenner at 13...)
Though interestingly Con majority 250-274 has come in from 32 to 14 in the last couple of days.
Are we now looking at a 1931 style result for Labour?
Only two of the LD seats really look comfortable at present - how many are for sure safe? Amazing how many are clustered together in the middle there. I wish them good luck (if MarkS can believe that from a person like me)
Orkney and Shetland is ultra safe. Ceredigion on my welsh analysis was massively safe too, we'll gain Cardiff Central back too. England more mixed.
Think Mark Williams may have a bit of a fight on hios hands now as Plaid have selected a locally born young lad to run for them - his family are well known in the area as both grandfather and father were police officers so he could do well with the Welsh language voters around
The timing of the election might dent the LD/Labour vote a bit - most of the students in Aber will have gone home by 8th June.
Similar story in lots of uni seats.
Labour are well out of it anyway not held the seat since 1974 and were 4th last time
marke09 - do you have any more info re the plaid candidate - as I can't find anything on google - thanks
So pleased to announce that will Ben Lake parliamentary candidate in ngherdigion. It's a young man from lampeter, gardi and orthopaedic to the carn. It will be an energetic and exciting candidate for the county. So pleased to announce that Plaid Cymru has selected Ben Lake, a young Lampeter man, as our Parliamentary candidate. He'll bring much-needed youth and energy into politics. What a candidate he'll be! And what an MP he'll make!
Does anyone have a list/total of the number of seats Labour came from third to win in 1997?
Seats gained from third place Sittingbourne and Sheppey, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Shrewsbury and Atcham, gained by Labour from the Conservatives St. Albans, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Oldham East and Saddleworth, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Leeds North West, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Hastings and Rye, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Falmouth and Camborne, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Conwy, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Bristol West, gained by Labour from the Conservatives Aberdeen South, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
(Also, Mid Ulster, gained by Sinn Féin from the DUP)
Seats gained from fourht place Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber, gained by Labour from the Liberal Democrats
Cheers. I'm trying to work how likely it is this time for the Tories.
When they are polling close to 50% and leading by 20% plus, UNS goes out of the window
I think the Tories could do it in Dagenham & Rainham, and Hartlepool.
So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Miliband
V, Cable isn't an MP, so is the 'moment' when he gets re-elected?
I think a true Portillo moment has to be about the MP losing a seat rather than a challenger gaining one. It's about the winning party unseating one of their most disliked opponents in a dramatic manner. So in 2015 i'd say there were 3 Portillo moments: Ed Balls (the closest to a true portillo moment), Vince Cable (because even when the LDs were dropping like flies, people seemed sure his personal standing would see him survive the carnage), and Douglas Alexander (he ran the election campaign for Slab, and had a huge majority overturned by a 20 year old paper candidate still at uni).
Potential portillo moments in 2017:
Angus Robertson - the scottish tories would LOVE to take this one, huge scalp for them if they manage it.
Ed Miliband - a former leader losing their seat would be huge, would really indicate total wipeout for Labour (tempered by the fact that I don't think tories hate Ed in the same way they hated Balls in 2015, so won't compare to Morley and Outwood).
Nick Clegg - former deputy PM losing would be practically unheard of, if it happens it likely indicates a catastrophic night for the LDs (but I don't see much chance of this one happening)
Kate Hoey - unlikely, but I think LDs would love to take this seat, and many Labour people would probably wish them well - she is extremely unpopular amongst many of the 'left'.
Emily Thornberry - closest person to Corbyn himself who has a chance of losing their seat. But with the tories in 2nd in 2015, yet being otherwise a good LD seat, I think tactical voting will fail and she is fine.
any others?
With Labour in such dire straits there are several lesser portillo moments where big names like Yvette Cooper lose their seat, but they would still lack the symbolism of a true Portillo.
The most likely Portillo moment is Robertson losing his seat to the Tories, even in current polling the others have too big a majority. If the Tories do oust the Westminster SNP leader it would be even more satisfying for them than Balls
All these Con retirements now are going to make the 600 seat boundary review an absolute nightmare. With the existing Parliament it was easy to guarantee every MP a shot at a good seat by kicking a few oldies upstairs to the red benches. With 400 Tories in the House and the retirements coming now, that's going to be a lot more difficult in 2022.
What was the reason to reduce the number of MPs and has that changed? Ministers say it will lower the "cost of politics" without reducing accountability. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12650869
It was promised by David Cameron in the wake of the expenses scandal (2009, where did eight years go?) as a reduction in the cost of politics and politicians.
To abandon (again) the Boundary Commission would cost as much as the savings that would have been made over the past few years. The boundaries are now well out of date and need updating. Some MPs (especially the new ones in June) are going to be discounted, but for politicians to keep delaying it for their own self interest makes us start to look like the US Congress.
There is no need to delay it any further , plenty of time for the BC to do the whole job to slightly different rules before the 2021/2022 GE .
Indeed. Third time lucky!
Increasing the +/- 5% tolerance to, or towards, the old 10%, and/or restoring the Commission's ability to go slightly outside of it where there are strong community reasons to do so, would be sensible changes. With the current criteria there will be cases where a ward is attached to the 'wrong' (in community/boundary terms) seat simply because it would take an electorate one or two hundred outside of the allowable range.
Labour polling numbers do seem to be holding up at 25-26%. Slight danger for Tories is people think they will win easy and so protest by switching back to ukip.
Switches off
Didn't reference highly obscure by-election, no mention of heart-attacks. 6/10
Or horrible complications from Type 1 diabetes or polonium. Must try harder.
On a (slightly) related note, I saw in another place someone referring to "... the chances of dying from a haemorrhoid strike."
It's likely he meant asteroid.
I'd mention this, but it might give Justin ideas...
Oh boy. Tory voters pretty decided. Labour not. Leadership is big issue.
This is going one way...
Sort of feels like to me one of two things will happen:
(1) Polling will stabilise at 46-49% for the Tories, and mid-20s for Labour. But, the Tory share will fall back to 42-44% on the day, and Labour will perform a bit better. Manifestos and debates clip Theresa's wings a bit. Public decide they don't want a utter rout of Labour because of need for opposition. Turnout is ok. 30-50 Tory Gains but no wipeout.
(2) Polling continues to worsen for Labour, and creeps consistently into the low 50s for the Tories, as the spotlight is put on Corbyn's past, and the media spotlight increases. Labour's manifesto is pulled to shreds, and a disaster, many senior Labourites publicly disown Corbyn, and Labour party discipline breaks down. Tories actually do clock 48-50% on the day, UKIP dissolve into nothing, Labour poll in the very low 20s, with perhaps the LDs doing a bit better. Turnout is lower. 125+ Tory gains. Labour reduced to a rump of perhaps only 90-110 MPs.
Right now I'd rate the latter as a significantly higher probability than the former.
Only two of the LD seats really look comfortable at present - how many are for sure safe? Amazing how many are clustered together in the middle there. I wish them good luck (if MarkS can believe that from a person like me)
Orkney and Shetland is ultra safe. Ceredigion on my welsh analysis was massively safe too, we'll gain Cardiff Central back too. England more mixed.
Think Mark Williams may have a bit of a fight on hios hands now as Plaid have selected a locally born young lad to run for them - his family are well known in the area as both grandfather and father were police officers so he could do well with the Welsh language voters around
The timing of the election might dent the LD/Labour vote a bit - most of the students in Aber will have gone home by 8th June.
Similar story in lots of uni seats.
Labour are well out of it anyway not held the seat since 1974 and were 4th last time
marke09 - do you have any more info re the plaid candidate - as I can't find anything on google - thanks
So pleased to announce that will Ben Lake parliamentary candidate in ngherdigion. It's a young man from lampeter, gardi and orthopaedic to the carn. It will be an energetic and exciting candidate for the county. So pleased to announce that Plaid Cymru has selected Ben Lake, a young Lampeter man, as our Parliamentary candidate. He'll bring much-needed youth and energy into politics. What a candidate he'll be! And what an MP he'll make!
I think a true Portillo moment has to be about the MP losing a seat rather than a challenger gaining one. It's about the winning party unseating one of their most disliked opponents in a dramatic manner. So in 2015 i'd say there were 3 Portillo moments: Ed Balls (the closest to a true portillo moment), Vince Cable (because even when the LDs were dropping like flies, people seemed sure his personal standing would see him survive the carnage), and Douglas Alexander (he ran the election campaign for Slab, and had a huge majority overturned by a 20 year old paper candidate still at uni).
Potential portillo moments in 2017:
Angus Robertson - the scottish tories would LOVE to take this one, huge scalp for them if they manage it.
Ed Miliband - a former leader losing their seat would be huge, would really indicate total wipeout for Labour (tempered by the fact that I don't think tories hate Ed in the same way they hated Balls in 2015, so won't compare to Morley and Outwood).
Nick Clegg - former deputy PM losing would be practically unheard of, if it happens it likely indicates a catastrophic night for the LDs (but I don't see much chance of this one happening)
Kate Hoey - unlikely, but I think LDs would love to take this seat, and many Labour people would probably wish them well - she is extremely unpopular amongst many of the 'left'.
Emily Thornberry - closest person to Corbyn himself who has a chance of losing their seat. But with the tories in 2nd in 2015, yet being otherwise a good LD seat, I think tactical voting will fail and she is fine.
any others?
With Labour in such dire straits there are several lesser portillo moments where big names like Yvette Cooper lose their seat, but they would still lack the symbolism of a true Portillo.
The most likely Portillo moment is Robertson losing his seat to the Tories, even in current polling the others have too big a majority. If the Tories do oust the Westminster SNP leader it would be even more satisfying for them than Balls
Yes Robertson most likely, especially if large scale unionist tactical voting does materialise (I imagine that slab and slid supporters would also love to see Robertson gone, so could be even stronger here than elsewhere in Scotland).
Oh boy. Tory voters pretty decided. Labour not. Leadership is big issue.
This is going one way...
Sort of feels like to me one of two things will happen:
(1) Polling will stabilise at 46-49% for the Tories, and mid-20s for Labour. But, the Tory share will fall back to 42-44% on the day, and Labour will perform a bit better. Manifestos and debates clip Theresa's wings a bit. Public decide they don't want a utter rout of Labour because of need for opposition. Turnout is ok. 30-50 Tory Gains but no wipeout.
(2) Polling continues to worsen for Labour, and creeps consistently into the low 50s for the Tories, as the spotlight is put on Corbyn's past, and the media spotlight increases. Labour's manifesto is pulled to shreds, and a disaster, many senior Labourites publicly disown Corbyn, and Labour party discipline breaks down. Tories actually do clock 48-50% on the day, UKIP dissolve into nothing, Labour poll in the very low 20s, with perhaps the LDs doing a bit better. Turnout is lower. 125+ Tory gains. Labour reduced to a rump of perhaps only 90-110 MPs.
Right now I'd rate the latter as a significantly higher probability than the former.
Re #1 ... I think you'll find that if the Tory lead starts to slip a little towards polling day, Lynton will produce a couple of very interesting articles on Corbyn's background
Theresa May’s leadership score has soared higher than either Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair enjoyed in their best years, an exclusive poll reveals today.
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
Shows how dreadful Cameron was, his resignation has saved the Conservative Party
Were you born stupid or do you have to work at it?
Dave took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
It's not impossible that May will match that number of gains.
That would imply Labour sub 100 seats.
Possible
I've been betting heavily on Labour 100 - 149 seats and also on Con Majorities in the 150-200 range. But I've also taken out some insurance bets at what now seem like truly fantastic odds - a tenner here or there covers me at about 12/1 on Labour seats and at 16/1 - 40/1 on Con majority + 200 - just so I'm still neutral / slightly green if things get worse for Labour.
The fact that I'm even imagining this is possible says everything about how pessimistic I am of Labour's chances at the moment.
It's been said by several commentators here that Labour has a firewall of seats with 10,000 majorities of about 120.
But just how low could Labour go? Is there value in increasing my position on bets that imply Labour sub 100 seats? Even a tenner on a few throwaway bets....
You can still get Labour at 8 on Betfair for under 100 seats (I got on for a tenner at 13...)
Though interestingly Con majority 250-274 has come in from 32 to 14 in the last couple of days.
Are we now looking at a 1931 style result for Labour?
There is still a strong tribal identity for Labour in some parts of the country, not that it will last forever. As Sean Fear has said before, mainly where there is very strong union affinity in the family history and community, and particularly in areas with coal mining heritage. Voting Labour there isn't anything to do with the leader or policy, it's simply part of who you are. Then you have the core cities (inner Manchester, London etc.) where Corbynism has a direct appeal.
I'd expect Yorkshire, Lancashire and north/rural Wales to fall to the Conservatives before Liverpool, Manchester, urban Newcastle and the valleyist of the Welsh valleys do.
So I think Labour do have a floor of between 70-100 seats. But not sure exactly where.
I think a true Portillo moment has to be about the MP losing a seat rather than a challenger gaining one. It's about the winning party unseating one of their most disliked opponents in a dramatic manner. So in 2015 i'd say there were 3 Portillo moments: Ed Balls (the closest to a true portillo moment), Vince Cable (because even when the LDs were dropping like flies, people seemed sure his personal standing would see him survive the carnage), and Douglas Alexander (he ran the election campaign for Slab, and had a huge majority overturned by a 20 year old paper candidate still at uni).
Potential portillo moments in 2017:
Angus Robertson - the scottish tories would LOVE to take this one, huge scalp for them if they manage it.
Ed Miliband - a former leader losing their seat would be huge, would really indicate total wipeout for Labour (tempered by the fact that I don't think tories hate Ed in the same way they hated Balls in 2015, so won't compare to Morley and Outwood).
Nick Clegg - former deputy PM losing would be practically unheard of, if it happens it likely indicates a catastrophic night for the LDs (but I don't see much chance of this one happening)
Kate Hoey - unlikely, but I think LDs would love to take this seat, and many Labour people would probably wish them well - she is extremely unpopular amongst many of the 'left'.
Emily Thornberry - closest person to Corbyn himself who has a chance of losing their seat. But with the tories in 2nd in 2015, yet being otherwise a good LD seat, I think tactical voting will fail and she is fine.
any others?
With Labour in such dire straits there are several lesser portillo moments where big names like Yvette Cooper lose their seat, but they would still lack the symbolism of a true Portillo.
The most likely Portillo moment is Robertson losing his seat to the Tories, even in current polling the others have too big a majority. If the Tories do oust the Westminster SNP leader it would be even more satisfying for them than Balls
Yes Robertson most likely, especially if large scale unionist tactical voting does materialise (I imagine that slab and slid supporters would also love to see Robertson gone, so could be even stronger here than elsewhere in Scotland).
Plus Moray almost 60% for No and almost 50% for Leave
The LDs still don't seem to have any real sign of a surge, and support is soft. I think as others have said, their comeback has come too soon, and they are being swamped by huge tory gains. A referendum on Corbyn doesn't help them much, and so far there are signs that the GE is becoming about this more than it is about Brexit.
I'm increasingly confident on my big payout of this election, LDs sub 19 seats.
I also have a nice treble on tories 400-450, Lab 100-150, and LDs 10-19, which seems like it could easily end up that way.
I actually joined the LDs the other day, first time I've ever joined a political party. So it's not all negative news for them!
now you are a member, hope you will volunteer to do stuff. Where are you located?
So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Miliband
V, Cable isn't an MP, so is the 'moment' when he gets re-elected?
Potential portillo moments in 2017:
Angus Robertson - the scottish tories would LOVE to take this one, huge scalp for them if they manage it.
Ed Miliband - a former leader losing their seat would be huge, would really indicate total wipeout for Labour (tempered by the fact that I don't think tories hate Ed in the same way they hated Balls in 2015, so won't compare to Morley and Outwood).
Nick Clegg - former deputy PM losing would be practically unheard of, if it happens it likely indicates a catastrophic night for the LDs (but I don't see much chance of this one happening)
Kate Hoey - unlikely, but I think LDs would love to take this seat, and many Labour people would probably wish them well - she is extremely unpopular amongst many of the 'left'.
Emily Thornberry - closest person to Corbyn himself who has a chance of losing their seat. But with the tories in 2nd in 2015, yet being otherwise a good LD seat, I think tactical voting will fail and she is fine.
any others?
With Labour in such dire straits there are several lesser portillo moments where big names like Yvette Cooper lose their seat, but they would still lack the symbolism of a true Portillo.
The most likely Portillo moment is Robertson losing his seat to the Tories, even in current polling the others have too big a majority. If the Tories do oust the Westminster SNP leader it would be even more satisfying for them than Balls
The fantasising on here recently is breathtaking. Heartbreak and tears ahead for the frothers.
Theresa May’s lead The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
Shows how dreadful Cameron was, his resignation has saved the Conservative Party
Were you born stupid or do you have to work at it?
331 MPs.
r of gains.
r sub 100 seats.
Possible
It's been said by several commentators here that Labour has a firewall of seats with 10,000 majorities of about 120.
But just how low could Labour go? Is there value in increasing my position on bets that imply Labour sub 100 seats? Even a tenner on a few throwaway bets....
You can still get Labour at 8 on Betfair for under 100 seats (I got on for a tenner at 13...)
Though interestingly Con majority 250-274 has come in from 32 to 14 in the last couple of days.
Are we now looking at a 1931 style result for Labour?
There is still a strong tribal identity for Labour in some parts of the country, not that it will last forever. As Sean Fear has said before, mainly where there is very strong union affinity in the family history and community, and particularly in areas with coal mining heritage. Voting Labour there isn't anything to do with the leader or policy, it's simply part of who you are. Then you have the core cities (inner Manchester, London etc.) where Corbynism has a direct appeal.
I'd expect Yorkshire, Lancashire and north/rural Wales to fall to the Conservatives before Liverpool, Manchester, urban Newcastle and the valleyist of the Welsh valleys do.
So I think Labour do have a floor of between 70-100 seats. But not sure exactly where.
Sean's spot on. The branch of my own family from the Wigan area don't just vote Labour they are Labour. Or to be more precise, they aren't Tory, and therein lies the rub. They were all big Brexiters and if the election is seen as Brexit referendum II, I could see them maybe switching. Would still be hard when it came to it though to put the X next to Conservative. The feelings of betrayal would be huge. I recall in 1983 my late Auntie had sleepless nights even about voting SDP, and ended up having to go to the doctors she got so upset about it.
If it becomes obvious the Tories will win regardless and Brexit still happening, I could see people like that sticking with Labour to avoid the angst.
I see todays labour announcement is more shaking of the magic money tree with no answer how any of this will be balanced out.
Given The Tories no longer care about the deficit either, doesn't that mean they'll be shaking th magic money tree too, just not as hard?
Your statement is untrue.
Tories don't shake the magic money tree for their pet projects, and they haven't abandoned even the extended 2020 target for eliminating the deficit. Ookay, I apologise then.
Edit - people are, if i may be so bold, taking the phrase 'don't care about' a little too literally. I'm happy to substitute to 'no longer care about anywhere near as much, thus freeing up magic money tree allocation'.
People taking other people's words at face value?
Blimey.
Whatever next?
It wasn't taking it at face value, it was applying strictly literal definition to an obviously exaggerated statement like a bloody idiot.
Comments
The Ipsos MORI survey shows the Conservatives on 49 per cent, with an extraordinary 23 per cent lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour who are on 26.
And it reveals that support for Labour and the Liberal Democrats is “softer” than Tory support, with more of their potential voters saying they may change their minds by June 8.
But the most striking evidence that voters could deliver Mrs May an overwhelming victory is the revelation that she has the best score yet recorded by Ipsos MORI since the 1970s when the veteran pollsters began asking who would make “the most capable Prime Minister” among party leaders of the day.
Some 61 per cent chose Mrs May, with 23 per cent picking Mr Corbyn.
This is going one way...
An inch wide and inch deep....
Dave took the Tory party from 198 MPs to 331 MPs.
PS don't bother with the insults it just makes YOU look stupid
Theresa's pacing herself.
Possible
Mr. Choose and Mr. Eagles, this is meant to be a happy website. Let's not argue about who killed who.
To giver her credit, she's played the game of keeping pressure on these parties well. But she wouldn't be where she is if it were not for Cameron: both directly (through the referendum) and indirectly (through the detoxification of the party Cameron started).
Howard also requires a lot of the credit as well, IMO.
But we shouldn't count our chickens before they're hatched: the election's still a few weeks away Corbyn still has time to cure cancer, grow the magical money tree, and bring world peace.
Labour polling numbers do seem to be holding up at 25-26%. Slight danger for Tories is people think they will win easy and so protest by switching back to ukip.
Switches off
FWIW my Labour councillor friend in Sheffield has said he won't be spending any time in Sheffield Hallam, as that would be a waste of time, but he'll be in Sheffield Central where Labour could be at risk.
Lab are 30% ahead of the Greens who are in 2nd place!!!!
Look up Crosby last parliament.
Ipsos-Mori, 31v2009
Tories finish third in the by election but take the seat at the GE.
...
Sittingbourne and Sheppey, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
Shrewsbury and Atcham, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
St. Albans, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
Oldham East and Saddleworth, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
Leeds North West, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
Hastings and Rye, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
Falmouth and Camborne, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
Conwy, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
Bristol West, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
Aberdeen South, gained by Labour from the Conservatives
(Also, Mid Ulster, gained by Sinn Féin from the DUP)
Seats gained from fourth place
Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber, gained by Labour from the Liberal Democrats
When they are polling close to 50% and leading by 20% plus, UNS goes out of the window
To abandon (again) the Boundary Commission would cost as much as the savings that would have been made over the past few years. The boundaries are now well out of date and need updating. Some MPs (especially the new ones in June) are going to be discounted, but for politicians to keep delaying it for their own self interest makes us start to look like the US Congress.
The basis for the different odds purely seems to be off the back of the recent by-election, which was obvs held under Corbyn's reign, but generals are different.
Hillsborough might see a big swing to the Tories, though Labour will hold it very comfortably.
I'm increasingly confident on my big payout of this election, LDs sub 19 seats.
I also have a nice treble on tories 400-450, Lab 100-150, and LDs 10-19, which seems like it could easily end up that way.
I actually joined the LDs the other day, first time I've ever joined a political party. So it's not all negative news for them!
Good.
"Arrests as Newcastle and West Ham raided in tax probe"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-39716009
The fact that I'm even imagining this is possible says everything about how pessimistic I am of Labour's chances at the moment.
It's been said by several commentators here that Labour has a firewall of seats with 10,000 majorities of about 120.
But just how low could Labour go? Is there value in increasing my position on bets that imply Labour sub 100 seats? Even a tenner on a few throwaway bets....
You can still get Labour at 8 on Betfair for under 100 seats (I got on for a tenner at 13...)
Though interestingly Con majority 250-274 has come in from 32 to 14 in the last couple of days.
Are we now looking at a 1931 style result for Labour?
So pleased to announce that Plaid Cymru has selected Ben Lake, a young Lampeter man, as our Parliamentary candidate. He'll bring much-needed youth and energy into politics. What a candidate he'll be! And what an MP he'll make!
www.facebook.com/plaidcymruceredigion
https://twitter.com/mattholehouse/status/857169809632526337
Increasing the +/- 5% tolerance to, or towards, the old 10%, and/or restoring the Commission's ability to go slightly outside of it where there are strong community reasons to do so, would be sensible changes. With the current criteria there will be cases where a ward is attached to the 'wrong' (in community/boundary terms) seat simply because it would take an electorate one or two hundred outside of the allowable range.
Get out focussing, unless you're in Paris in which case help out Macron
It's likely he meant asteroid.
I'd mention this, but it might give Justin ideas...
(1) Polling will stabilise at 46-49% for the Tories, and mid-20s for Labour. But, the Tory share will fall back to 42-44% on the day, and Labour will perform a bit better. Manifestos and debates clip Theresa's wings a bit. Public decide they don't want a utter rout of Labour because of need for opposition. Turnout is ok. 30-50 Tory Gains but no wipeout.
(2) Polling continues to worsen for Labour, and creeps consistently into the low 50s for the Tories, as the spotlight is put on Corbyn's past, and the media spotlight increases. Labour's manifesto is pulled to shreds, and a disaster, many senior Labourites publicly disown Corbyn, and Labour party discipline breaks down. Tories actually do clock 48-50% on the day, UKIP dissolve into nothing, Labour poll in the very low 20s, with perhaps the LDs doing a bit better. Turnout is lower. 125+ Tory gains. Labour reduced to a rump of perhaps only 90-110 MPs.
Right now I'd rate the latter as a significantly higher probability than the former.
Got it at 500/1.
That was a proper run up and kick him in the nuts question.
NEW THREAD
I couldn't help but look at the people sitting alongside him who will be in that position, against their wishes.
I'd expect Yorkshire, Lancashire and north/rural Wales to fall to the Conservatives before Liverpool, Manchester, urban Newcastle and the valleyist of the Welsh valleys do.
So I think Labour do have a floor of between 70-100 seats. But not sure exactly where.
If it becomes obvious the Tories will win regardless and Brexit still happening, I could see people like that sticking with Labour to avoid the angst.