The belief is that Clive Lewis got the name of the pollster wrong or simply applied UNS from January's ICM national poll.
If he was to win, would this 'mistake' be enough to challenge the result?
On what grounds? The cost of printed but unused material can be deducted from the expenses return. Provided he doesn't continue to use stuff after he has been warned by ICM, they aren't going to do anything about it.
The material has been used, it's on t'Internet, and it's a lie on electoral material.
This whole area of the regulations appear a bit of a mess, at least to my inexpert eyes. I guess the 1983 act that got Woolas won't apply.
If I was a premier league footballer who'd just scored the winning goal at Wembley and lifted my shirt to reveal my latest tattoo written in Tengwar It would be a line written by Alastair last night;
"Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies".
Roger: there is no polling supporting that claim; indeed, the reverse.
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
The belief is that Clive Lewis got the name of the pollster wrong or simply applied UNS from January's ICM national poll.
If he was to win, would this 'mistake' be enough to challenge the result?
On what grounds? The cost of printed but unused material can be deducted from the expenses return. Provided he doesn't continue to use stuff after he has been warned by ICM, they aren't going to do anything about it.
The material has been used, it's on t'Internet, and it's a lie on electoral material.
This whole area of the regulations appear a bit of a mess, at least to my inexpert eyes. I guess the 1983 act that got Woolas won't apply.
Electoral expenses for MPs don't apply yet, I believe next Tuesday they kick in
Gets popcorn for this one! One person you don't want to piss off is Martin Boon.
Probably extrapolated the Norwich South result from an ICM national poll which sounds about right. Nothing much to see here I'd say
For frick's sake Roger. As Alastair pointed out the UKIP score doesn't tally with that, and even if that is what he's done, it's not on.
Morning all!
It explains it though. Here are the 2015 figures
Labour Clive Lewis 19,033 39.3 +10.6 Conservative Lisa Townsend 11,379 23.5 +0.6 Green Lesley Grahame 6,749 13.9 -1.0 Liberal Democrat Simon Wright 6,607 13.6 -15.7 UKIP Steve Emmens 4,539 9.4 +7.0
Gets popcorn for this one! One person you don't want to piss off is Martin Boon.
Probably extrapolated the Norwich South result from an ICM national poll which sounds about right. Nothing much to see here I'd say
For frick's sake Roger. As Alastair pointed out the UKIP score doesn't tally with that, and even if that is what he's done, it's not on.
Morning all!
It explains it though. Here are the 2015 figures
Labour Clive Lewis 19,033 39.3 +10.6 Conservative Lisa Townsend 11,379 23.5 +0.6 Green Lesley Grahame 6,749 13.9 -1.0 Liberal Democrat Simon Wright 6,607 13.6 -15.7 UKIP Steve Emmens 4,539 9.4 +7.0
No Roger, why would the UKIP score have gone up since 2015?
If I was a premier league footballer who'd just scored the winning goal at Wembley and lifted my shirt to reveal my latest tattoo written in Tengwar It would be a line written by Alastair last night;
"Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies".
Roger: there is no polling supporting that claim; indeed, the reverse.
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
Another example of the weirdo from the internet presuming to comment on my private life (once again, wildly inaccurately). Kindly desist and find yourself a healthier hobby.
I see todays labour announcement is more shaking of the magic money tree with no answer how any of this will be balanced out.
Given The Tories no longer care about the deficit either, doesn't that mean they'll be shaking th magic money tree too, just not as hard?
Given that they've pretty much eliminated the primary deficit, I'm not sure why you say they no longer care about it.
Almost eliminated in the sense of getting it back down to the pre-crisis levels when Gordon Brown was Chancellor. Or nearly. Oh, and don't mention record debt.
The debt is Brown's debt. He thought he had abolished boom and bust. He is ,an economic illiterate.
The debt is mainly Osborne's.
That's true only if it had been possible to eliminate the deficit in one day.
If I was a premier league footballer who'd just scored the winning goal at Wembley and lifted my shirt to reveal my latest tattoo written in Tengwar It would be a line written by Alastair last night;
"Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies".
Roger: there is no polling supporting that claim; indeed, the reverse.
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
Only two of the LD seats really look comfortable at present - how many are for sure safe? Amazing how many are clustered together in the middle there. I wish them good luck (if MarkS can believe that from a person like me)
Orkney and Shetland is ultra safe. Ceredigion on my welsh analysis was massively safe too, we'll gain Cardiff Central back too. England more mixed.
Think Mark Williams may have a bit of a fight on hios hands now as Plaid have selected a locally born young lad to run for them - his family are well known in the area as both grandfather and father were police officers so he could do well with the Welsh language voters around
Is there a similar table for when Tory or Labour leaders conceded defeat?
I stayed awake for over 38 hours on Election Day. Kept going by that mad morning of leader resignations.
Where would Labour be now if Ed hadn't resigned, or if he'd stayed on for a few months?
The single thread in Labour's collapse is Len McCluskey. He got EdM over the line in 2010. It was Unite that caused the Falkirk mess that led to the leadership election rules being changed and it's Len that has kept Corbyn's head above water. Funnily enough, Len has done very well indeed out of the last seven years.
A very good point. I think the Falkirk mess was a pivotal point in Labour's misfortunes.
And yet at the time the dimmer posters on here kept telling us that there was nothing to see as 'it hadn't affected the polls in England'.......
I believe I was saying the scandal was important whilst it was unfolding. It was horrible optics at a time when Scottish voters were faced with a reasonable alternative in the form of the SNP. Why vote for the venal and corrupt Labour party when you could vote for the SNP?
Indeed - several of us were alive for its potential to cause problems for Labour in Scotland - though I suspect few of us imagined they would be on such a scale!
I think this is a spurious correlation. I doubt 1 voter in 100 would even know that Labour had issues about candidate selection in Falkirk some years ago, let alone care. It did show a party that was rotten to the core for those that were really interested but it was merely a symptom of that rottenness, not its cause.
It's an infallible PB rule that the further one is from a place, the greater the insight one has into its politics. Surely you knew that?
If I was a premier league footballer who'd just scored the winning goal at Wembley and lifted my shirt to reveal my latest tattoo written in Tengwar It would be a line written by Alastair last night;
"Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies".
Roger: there is no polling supporting that claim; indeed, the reverse.
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
You're a very funny guy Izzy. Wasted as a lawyer!
He's a lawyer? I thought those guys were supposed to be logical.
Arguably Lewis has fallen foul of Section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983 in claiming false polling results for other candidates. Under the Act it’s an illegal practice to make a false statement about a rival candidate “for the purpose of affecting the return of any candidate at the election”. Lewis is yet to withdraw the tweet…
I am not convinced this would be accepted as a statement about another candidate, though. It's about the voters. And if political leaflets always had to be truthful, they'd all be in jail.
His local agent or leaflet designer is nevertheless going to get one hell of an earbashing shortly...
Only two of the LD seats really look comfortable at present - how many are for sure safe? Amazing how many are clustered together in the middle there. I wish them good luck (if MarkS can believe that from a person like me)
Orkney and Shetland is ultra safe. Ceredigion on my welsh analysis was massively safe too, we'll gain Cardiff Central back too. England more mixed.
Think Mark Williams may have a bit of a fight on hios hands now as Plaid have selected a locally born young lad to run for them - his family are well known in the area as both grandfather and father were police officers so he could do well with the Welsh language voters around
Hmm Plaid always fail to live up to the hype in GEs though.
At a chess match last night one of the opposing team was talking about his politics.
He said he'd been a :Labour voter for over 30 years, but no longer. This time he'll be voting Lib Dem, despite the whole coalition experience, because he thinks they're the only party with a sane Europe policy. He lives in Sheffield Heeley.
Obviously the Lib Dem European policy hasn't cut through yet. A parliamentary candidate of theirs who I vaguely know confirmed to me yesterday that their policy is for a referendum at the end of the A50 negotiations with the options being take the deal negotiated or remain on the status quo ante referendum I.
Arguably Lewis has fallen foul of Section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983 in claiming false polling results for other candidates. Under the Act it’s an illegal practice to make a false statement about a rival candidate “for the purpose of affecting the return of any candidate at the election”. Lewis is yet to withdraw the tweet…
I am not convinced this would be accepted as a statement about another candidate, though. It's about the voters. And if political leaflets always had to be truthful, they'd all be in jail.
His local agent or leaflet designer is nevertheless going to get one hell of an earbashing shortly...
Could Clive find himself in trouble with someone over this?
If I was a premier league footballer who'd just scored the winning goal at Wembley and lifted my shirt to reveal my latest tattoo written in Tengwar It would be a line written by Alastair last night;
"Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies".
Roger: there is no polling supporting that claim; indeed, the reverse.
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
Another example of the weirdo from the internet presuming to comment on my private life (once again, wildly inaccurately). Kindly desist and find yourself a healthier hobby.
You have been solidly trolling this site with the wildly inaccurate information quoted by Roger for getting on for a year now. You are happy to sit there playing an endless loop claiming that 51% of your fellow countrymen are xenophobic morons; you have been very clear that there are no exceptions to this rule, not even many of the posters on here who are patently not xenophobic and not moronic. If you can't take it, perhaps grow up and stop dishing it out?
Arguably Lewis has fallen foul of Section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983 in claiming false polling results for other candidates. Under the Act it’s an illegal practice to make a false statement about a rival candidate “for the purpose of affecting the return of any candidate at the election”. Lewis is yet to withdraw the tweet…
I am not convinced this would be accepted as a statement about another candidate, though. It's about the voters. And if political leaflets always had to be truthful, they'd all be in jail.
His local agent or leaflet designer is nevertheless going to get one hell of an earbashing shortly...
Could Clive find himself in trouble with someone over this?
ICM wont like it if he continues to use the graphic on the web or in leaflets. Otherwise, no, apart from a dent to his credibility (such as it is)
Only two of the LD seats really look comfortable at present - how many are for sure safe? Amazing how many are clustered together in the middle there. I wish them good luck (if MarkS can believe that from a person like me)
Orkney and Shetland is ultra safe. Ceredigion on my welsh analysis was massively safe too, we'll gain Cardiff Central back too. England more mixed.
Think Mark Williams may have a bit of a fight on hios hands now as Plaid have selected a locally born young lad to run for them - his family are well known in the area as both grandfather and father were police officers so he could do well with the Welsh language voters around
Hmm Plaid always fail to live up to the hype in GEs though.
True but last time he wasnt a local candidate and the Plaid Assembly member Elin Jones who is presiding officer comes from same town as the new candidate
If I was a premier league footballer who'd just scored the winning goal at Wembley and lifted my shirt to reveal my latest tattoo written in Tengwar It would be a line written by Alastair last night;
"Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies".
Roger: there is no polling supporting that claim; indeed, the reverse.
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
Another example of the weirdo from the internet presuming to comment on my private life (once again, wildly inaccurately). Kindly desist and find yourself a healthier hobby.
You have been solidly trolling this site with the wildly inaccurate information quoted by Roger for getting on for a year now. You are happy to sit there playing an endless loop claiming that 51% of your fellow countrymen are xenophobic morons; you have been very clear that there are no exceptions to this rule, not even many of the posters on here who are patently not xenophobic and not moronic. If you can't take it, perhaps grow up and stop dishing it out?
I have no intention of engaging with you further. You have this weird and unhealthy idea that my private life is in some way of the slightest relevance to political questions of the day. Until you understand that is utterly unacceptable, you are not a poster who I am going to respond to directly or indirectly.
Only two of the LD seats really look comfortable at present - how many are for sure safe? Amazing how many are clustered together in the middle there. I wish them good luck (if MarkS can believe that from a person like me)
Orkney and Shetland is ultra safe. Ceredigion on my welsh analysis was massively safe too, we'll gain Cardiff Central back too. England more mixed.
Think Mark Williams may have a bit of a fight on hios hands now as Plaid have selected a locally born young lad to run for them - his family are well known in the area as both grandfather and father were police officers so he could do well with the Welsh language voters around
The timing of the election might dent the LD/Labour vote a bit - most of the students in Aber will have gone home by 8th June.
Only two of the LD seats really look comfortable at present - how many are for sure safe? Amazing how many are clustered together in the middle there. I wish them good luck (if MarkS can believe that from a person like me)
Orkney and Shetland is ultra safe. Ceredigion on my welsh analysis was massively safe too, we'll gain Cardiff Central back too. England more mixed.
Think Mark Williams may have a bit of a fight on hios hands now as Plaid have selected a locally born young lad to run for them - his family are well known in the area as both grandfather and father were police officers so he could do well with the Welsh language voters around
The timing of the election might dent the LD/Labour vote a bit - most of the students in Aber will have gone home by 8th June.
Similar story in lots of uni seats.
How does that effect Cardiff Central ?
I'm on Plaid sub 4.5 @ 8-13 btw ^-^;
It looks to me like the Tories not only gain Yns Mon but aren't a million miles off the other Plaid seats.
If I was a premier league footballer who'd just scored the winning goal at Wembley and lifted my shirt to reveal my latest tattoo written in Tengwar It would be a line written by Alastair last night;
"Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies".
Roger: there is no polling supporting that claim; indeed, the reverse.
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
You're a very funny guy Izzy. Wasted as a lawyer!
He's a lawyer? I thought those guys were supposed to be logical.
Actually he is! He and alex are the closest we've got to 'Spock' on PB.
Only two of the LD seats really look comfortable at present - how many are for sure safe? Amazing how many are clustered together in the middle there. I wish them good luck (if MarkS can believe that from a person like me)
Orkney and Shetland is ultra safe. Ceredigion on my welsh analysis was massively safe too, we'll gain Cardiff Central back too. England more mixed.
Think Mark Williams may have a bit of a fight on hios hands now as Plaid have selected a locally born young lad to run for them - his family are well known in the area as both grandfather and father were police officers so he could do well with the Welsh language voters around
The timing of the election might dent the LD/Labour vote a bit - most of the students in Aber will have gone home by 8th June.
Similar story in lots of uni seats.
Labour are well out of it anyway not held the seat since 1974 and were 4th last time
If I was a premier league footballer who'd just scored the winning goal at Wembley and lifted my shirt to reveal my latest tattoo written in Tengwar It would be a line written by Alastair last night;
"Leave won because a metropolitan elite scared the working classes with xenophobic lies".
Roger: there is no polling supporting that claim; indeed, the reverse.
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
Another example of the weirdo from the internet presuming to comment on my private life (once again, wildly inaccurately). Kindly desist and find yourself a healthier hobby.
I have no intention of engaging with you further. You have this weird and unhealthy idea that my private life is in some way of the slightest relevance to political questions of the day. Until you understand that is utterly unacceptable, you are not a poster who I am going to respond to directly or indirectly.
Mr Meeks, those words seem to bear an uncanny resemblence to what must be going on in Tim Farron's head after recent events but he can't possibly say out loud. Are you sure you aren't getting messages through the ether?
Yes, but what % of the nation's brexiteers will be voting for May ?
70 ?
In 2015 Ukip fielded approx 600 candidates and got close to 4m, almost 13%. This time I'd estimate 100 candidates with a total of around 500,000. Not sure what markets this can be backed on - spreads? Either way it would be dangerous to over estimate Ukip this time around.
So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.
So far has sent a tweet implying all non labour voters are stupid and now follows up with a potentially illegal poll. What was it Cameron said about too much Twitter.
So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Miliband
So I might have destroyed the political career of Clive Lewis. Not bad for a morning's work.
I hope so. I trust nobody here would vote for someone who made statistically dubious extrapolations from sub-samples and labeled them misleadingly. But Norwich voters may have other issues on their minds.
I reckon Clive Lewis maybe one of the 2017 GE 'Portillo moments' ... alongside G. Robertson, N. Clegg, V. Cable, D. Miliband (depending on if / where he stands of course), E. Miliband
I really doubt enough people have even heard of Clive Lewis or care whether he is re-elected or not.
Gandhi of course stated he was happy for the Muslims to run India as long as it achieved independence and stopped partition. Not sure this speaks to the kipper core.
Comments
This whole area of the regulations appear a bit of a mess, at least to my inexpert eyes. I guess the 1983 act that got Woolas won't apply.
Morning all!
There is no anecdote supporting that claim; the idea of Alastair (or yourself) talking to, or being in a location where you could overhear the conversation of, the British working classes, is ludicrous.
Absent polling or anecdote, I can only assume the source for the claim is the voices in Alastair's head. Thank you for the revelation that they address him in Tengwar, a valuable if not altogether surprising addition to Meeksological studies.
Labour Clive Lewis 19,033 39.3 +10.6
Conservative Lisa Townsend 11,379 23.5 +0.6
Green Lesley Grahame 6,749 13.9 -1.0
Liberal Democrat Simon Wright 6,607 13.6 -15.7
UKIP Steve Emmens 4,539 9.4 +7.0
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/691277/Owen-Smith-999-Labour-blunder
"Mrs May is not just making the wrong choices, but also downplaying awkward trade-offs."
http://discovery.economist.com/brpr?article=2821320&utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Facebook&utm_campaign=201704_Social_GB&utm_term=Subs-Link-Ad&utm_content=o_link-ad&cid1=d/soc/Facebook/dyn/2821320/20170406-00:00am/paid/social-LA/BR-PO/BRPII/n/subs/GB/BR-LIT&cid3=UM
https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/856985686355959808
I knew the SCons were getting Kippered, but a bit of Libdemming goin' on as well it appears.
@TheScreamingEagles calls him out. Genius.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/26/clive-lewis-slammed-pollsters-icm-spreading-fake-news/
Arguably Lewis has fallen foul of Section 106 of the Representation of the People Act 1983 in claiming false polling results for other candidates. Under the Act it’s an illegal practice to make a false statement about a rival candidate “for the purpose of affecting the return of any candidate at the election”. Lewis is yet to withdraw the tweet…
I am not convinced this would be accepted as a statement about another candidate, though. It's about the voters. And if political leaflets always had to be truthful, they'd all be in jail.
His local agent or leaflet designer is nevertheless going to get one hell of an earbashing shortly...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10JXFr2nEi6_H_CXvdvrpezS7Rfv6UwzLMrHZcsrsxMI/edit#gid=0
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857155161969569792
Well, it's a view.
70 ?
https://twitter.com/Ned_Donovan/status/857139093024755712
Ironic events, part 934 in an ongoing series...
Similar story in lots of uni seats.
I'm on Plaid sub 4.5 @ 8-13 btw ^-^;
It looks to me like the Tories not only gain Yns Mon but aren't a million miles off the other Plaid seats.
https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/857155419302744065
https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/857155519596965888
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/newcastle-and-west-ham-raided-by-hmrc-after-transfers-investigation-a7702521.html
https://twitter.com/naebD/status/857158247995904000
https://twitter.com/naebD/status/857154174336815104
How wrong I was.
https://twitter.com/stephenckerr/status/857135269794992128
Mayors: West of England, Doncaster
Councils: Isle of Wight, Swansea, Wrexham, Cardiff, Dorset, Essex, Flintshire, Gloucestershire, Lincolnshire, Merthyr, Neath, Somerset, Warwickshire, Blaunau Gwent, Bridgend, Hampshire, Newport, Northumberland, Ceredigion, Monmouthshire, Vale of Glamorgan, Cumbria, Torfaen
Con 52% Lab 22% Con Lead 30%
Three lions on the shield?
http://www.britishasparagusfestival.org/about/meet-gus/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOx8q3eGq3g
Imminent Mike today or tomorrow not sure of publishing schedule
It's out today, around 11.30am
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/keir-starmer-labours-great-hope-party-really-trouble/
https://twitter.com/ExpressandStar/status/857145017827295232
SPIN 385
Spreadex 387
(midpoints)