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System Posts: 12,578
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exit poll says Macron and Le Pen make it into round two.

?? #Presidentielle2017 ? Estimation Ipsos / @SopraSteria_fr à 20h du classement des candidats lors de ce premier tour pic.twitter.com/o6T4qBMGSq

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Comments

  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    First!
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Now just a question of how well Le Pen might manage. Presumably much better than her dad's 17%, so time to improve on that for when Le Pen III has a go. Though having stumbled from topping the first round as long expected, perhaps it won't be as good a runner up as she'd like.
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    That's a < I hope.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Macron backable at 1.19 on Betfair, for the Presidency. Get in quick!
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.117179983
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    NDA almost beat the party of the President!
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    Damn, yet again my comment disappeared. It was "Who will be the first to tell TSE that this is not an Exit Poll?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Can someone link to the Guardian French count. I'm on their website but it is absolute mince.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    Chapeau. Whatever your opinion of Macron, to win as an independent is some achievement!
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TSE, how long have you been waiting to use that awful pun???
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

    Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    As previously noted, it's not correct that "we’ve not had any votes counted yet". Estimates in France are based on precisely that from a sample of polling stations, and NOT on asking people on the way out.
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    chestnut said:

    For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

    Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

    He has one, En Marche - they will stand candidates but at best likely to force a hung parliament
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    edited April 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Can someone link to the Guardian French count. I'm on their website but it is absolute mince.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/23/french-election-voting-under-way-in-first-round-live
    Can watch at www.france24.com/en/livefeed

    In English
  • augustus_carp
    augustus_carp Posts: 224
    "Lovin' Fillon"?!?!?! I think an apology is called for.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    FPT:

    For PfP:
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labour-defence/
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TSE, how long have you been waiting to use that awful pun???

    If you think that pun is awful wait until June 8th/9th.

    I've come up with the worse pun in history.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    chestnut said:

    For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

    Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

    Parliamentary elections in June- where they will be running new candidates.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    The BBC are stating the Kantar figures 23 23 19 19

    Clearly multiple 'exit polls'.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I was first and my comment has disappeared
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    FPT: France24 English live coverage:

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Ydto3Iyzic
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Reposted from the previous thread:

    Does anyone have a link to a good results page (with maps, figures etc.)?

    Cheers!
  • Dadge
    Dadge Posts: 2,052
    Sandpit said:

    Macron backable at 1.19 on Betfair, for the Presidency. Get in quick!
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.117179983

    Down to 1.16 now
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Merde.

    Well, petite merde. Would've preferred Fillon. What an arse. Refuses to go after I get a nice position on Juppe and Bayrou, then the incompetent weasel can't even knock out Le Pen.

    Fillon can filloff.

    Mr. Eagles, cooler, six weeks.
  • dodrade
    dodrade Posts: 597
    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Allez France!!!!!!!!!!

    Vive Macron!!!!!!!!!
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    Dadge said:

    Sandpit said:

    Macron backable at 1.19 on Betfair, for the Presidency. Get in quick!
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.117179983

    Down to 1.16 now
    Free money still!
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TSE, how long have you been waiting to use that awful pun???

    If you think that pun is awful wait until June 8th/9th.

    I've come up with the worse pun in history.
    Jeremy Corbinned?
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Time for Putin to do his thing.......
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    Macron, Macron!
    Qu'un sang impur
    Abreuve nos sillons!
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Bonsoir Francois.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited April 2017
    SquareRoot said:

    I was first and my comment has disappeared

    There is nothing wrong with vanilla forums.... :D
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    He is not a crook, borderline Fascist, or to the Left of Corbyn? Also France has never had a Blairite figure.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Root, I had that the other day. I think it sometimes just happens.

    Mr. Dodrade, probably about who he isn't more than who he is.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited April 2017
    SquareRoot said:

    I was first and my comment has disappeared

    For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.

    @SquareRoot @MTimT and @foxinsoxuk all claimed firsts!
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TSE, how long have you been waiting to use that awful pun???

    If you think that pun is awful wait until June 8th/9th.

    I've come up with the worse pun in history.
    Jeremy Corbinned?
    May Oui?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I was first and my comment has disappeared

    There is nothing wrong with vanilla forums.... :D
    They don't work on Safari for starters. I always have to switch to Firefox or Chrome.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    chestnut said:

    For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

    Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

    Ce sera la bordel, Macron - cest un con.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    SquareRoot said:

    I was first and my comment has disappeared

    You can't say that. I was first but my comment has disappeared! :)
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited April 2017
    Sandpit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I was first and my comment has disappeared

    For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.
    The cheque is in the post, TSE. ;)
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Not everywhere, Trudeau is another centrist liberal like Macron and Le Pen has still got a higher total than FN have ever achieved before
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TSE, how long have you been waiting to use that awful pun???

    If you think that pun is awful wait until June 8th/9th.

    I've come up with the worse pun in history.
    Jeremy Corbinned?
    May Corbyn go Farron these results?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Centrist politicians are slightly less discredited than the world's Leftist or Rightist politicians?
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Too early for aftertiming? Macron at 18/1 and 7/2 with the books. Lost my nerve and greened up on Betfair just before Fillon imploded. Grrr.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Looks like the French have lost that lovin’ Fillon - ouch!

    'Le Pen is mightier the Le Fraud' still tops the charts.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Sandpit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I was first and my comment has disappeared

    For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.
    Ready for four different awful puns?
  • CommanderShepard
    CommanderShepard Posts: 135
    Sandpit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I was first and my comment has disappeared

    For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.
    Macron is in the mode of Obama, Cameron and Blair. You can project your own wants and ideas on to him and he wont disappoint, until he does.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Too early for aftertiming? Macron at 18/1 and 7/2 with the books. Lost my nerve and greened up on Betfair just before Fillon imploded. Grrr.

    Nobody who cashes out starves, isn't that the rule?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Anyone have a link to live results page and/or map?
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    AndyJS said:

    Anyone have a link to live results page and/or map?

    Here's one. No idea on updating though.

    https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    FPT, Mr. Rich, that may be during to early printing, which was spearheaded by the Dutch. That's why the English 'yott' became 'yacht'.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    God Gaffney is boring. Needs some lessons on TV presentation skills.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Not everywhere, Trudeau is another centrist liberal like Macron and Le Pen has still got a higher total than FN have ever achieved before
    Also whilst there are some discredited Blairite types, how many examples are there of Blairite types being actually rejected at the polls? And certainly at the point where they have no record in office and remain a blank sheet.
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    AndyJS said:

    Anyone have a link to live results page and/or map?

    This is one, don't know how quickly it will update;

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/#PR2017
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Doesn't seem to have obvious downsides, France usually less centrist(?) so he stands out more, and relatively fresh so people are projecting a lot onto him in the face of other unappealing candidates.

    If the last one, then he'll have a tough time of it moving forward (after he's won election, obviously)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    Sandpit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I was first and my comment has disappeared

    For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.

    @SquareRoot @MTimT and @foxinsoxuk all claimed firsts!
    There's an issue with vanilla and wordpress at the moment.

    When I publish directly via the website it is fine, when I use the app it causes multiple vanilla forum discussions
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

    I want Macron to crush the Racist.

    And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    What was up with that commentator just now "Noone likes Macron wah wah"
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    surbiton said:

    This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

    I want Macron to crush the Racist.

    And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

    Je suis avec toi, mon ami!!

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    One of the exit polls has the two frontrunners neck and neck which makes things slightly more interesting.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Betfair Conservative to win Birmingham constituencies:

    Northfield 5.9% maj 4/6
    Edgbaston 6.6% maj 4/11
    Erdington 14.8 maj 5/6

    I'd say that Northfield was too long and Erdington too short.

    Northfield is significantly more wwc than the other two.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017
    SandyRentool said:

    The BBC are stating the Kantar figures 23 23 19 19

    Clearly multiple 'exit polls'.

    As long as the first two are correct, who cares. The Americans should learn from the French how to conduct elections. How to get rid of people with bad smell.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Not everywhere, Trudeau is another centrist liberal like Macron and Le Pen has still got a higher total than FN have ever achieved before
    Also whilst there are some discredited Blairite types, how many examples are there of Blairite types being actually rejected at the polls? And certainly at the point where they have no record in office and remain a blank sheet.
    PASOK in Greece maybe, Hillary was pretty Blairite
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    AndyJS said:

    One of the exit polls has the two frontrunners neck and neck which makes things slightly more interesting.

    I don't really understand why there would be more than one exit poll (of the 'vote count' variety). Surely the production of such a poll requires the granting of official access to the ballot papers, and if so why would the authorities want more than one of them? Or is it insurance against an outlier?
  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    I've come up with the worst pun in history.

    *pelts TSE with rotten fruit*
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Laying Le Pen over 30% was the most ridiculous free money all year.

    Or that might be laying Corbyn to be next PM.
  • CommanderShepard
    CommanderShepard Posts: 135
    Ge
    Andrew said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    I've come up with the worst pun in history.

    *pelts TSE with rotten fruit*
    @TSE What George Osborne? :)
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    Laying Le Pen over 30% was the most ridiculous free money all year.

    Or that might be laying Corbyn to be next PM.

    Shame I pissed it away on other candidates. Still, no harm done.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    surbiton said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The BBC are stating the Kantar figures 23 23 19 19

    Clearly multiple 'exit polls'.

    As long as the first two are correct, who cares. The Americans should learn from the French how to conduct elections. How to get rid of people with bad smell.
    How would the French system have got rid of either Trump or Clinton?

    My guess is that the order in the first round would have been Trump, Clinton, Sanders, Cruz ... Unless a bunch of Dems deserted to Kasich, but why would they in Round 1?
  • DoubleCarpet
    DoubleCarpet Posts: 968
    Still trying to find a live results map by departement!

    Not impressed :(
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    brokenwheel said:

    AndyJS said:

    Anyone have a link to live results page and/or map?

    This is one, don't know how quickly it will update;

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/#PR2017
    Thanks.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017
    La France, encore une fois leader de l'Europe

    [ The best google could do ]

    All we now need is for Scotland to be in it.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    alex. said:

    HYUFD said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Not everywhere, Trudeau is another centrist liberal like Macron and Le Pen has still got a higher total than FN have ever achieved before
    Also whilst there are some discredited Blairite types, how many examples are there of Blairite types being actually rejected at the polls? And certainly at the point where they have no record in office and remain a blank sheet.
    PASOK in Greece maybe, Hillary was pretty Blairite
    I assumed we were discussing "Blair(ite) types", ie. fresh faced young politicians who seem to promise the world and allow the electorate to project their hopes on to them. I don't think Hillary quite qualifies...!
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    chestnut said:

    For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

    Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

    He has a complete slate of candidates for the Assembly elections. How well they do is another question altogether. My guess is that he'll end up with about a third of the seats, with LR getting 40%, and the Socialists 10-15%. I expect the FN to do quite poorly (3-5) seats.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:

    One of the exit polls has the two frontrunners neck and neck which makes things slightly more interesting.

    I don't really understand why there would be more than one exit poll (of the 'vote count' variety). Surely the production of such a poll requires the granting of official access to the ballot papers, and if so why would the authorities want more than one of them? Or is it insurance against an outlier?
    I agree, it's confusing. As you say only one of them can be based on the actual votes.
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    surbiton said:

    This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

    I want Macron to crush the Racist.

    And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

    Macron wants job cuts, tax cuts and conscription. He's no Corbynite Francais.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    SouthamObserver said:

    surbiton said:

    This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

    I want Macron to crush the Racist.

    And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

    Je suis avec toi, mon ami!!

    Moi aussi!
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    surbiton said:

    SandyRentool said:

    The BBC are stating the Kantar figures 23 23 19 19

    Clearly multiple 'exit polls'.

    As long as the first two are correct, who cares. The Americans should learn from the French how to conduct elections. How to get rid of people with bad smell.
    Yeah, don't have as the only other option someone with the stale smell of decay.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Obviously at your own risk, but if you believe the level-pegging (at the top) poll, you can lay Macron to win round one at 1.13. I did that a bit, just to eliminate any redness.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    surbiton said:

    This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

    I want Macron to crush the Racist.

    And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

    Macron wants job cuts, tax cuts and conscription. He's no Corbynite Francais.
    Who is Corbynite here / Are you ?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    surbiton said:

    La France, encore une fois leader de l'Europe

    [ The best google could do ]

    All we now need is for Scotland to be in it.

    you are basing that on Macron's victory? Righty-ho.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Still trying to find a live results map by departement!

    Not impressed :(

    I think this will: https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Laying Le Pen over 30% was the most ridiculous free money all year.

    Or that might be laying Corbyn to be next PM.

    Only one of those things can be done with a modest bank.
  • augustus_carp
    augustus_carp Posts: 224
    Inspiring for Corbyn - the two winners in France have, respectively, no MPs and 2 MPs...
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2017
    Based on the latest polling data Martin Baxter forecasts the Tories to have an overall majority of 170 seats as follows:

    Party 2015 Votes 2015 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
    CON........ 37.8%.............. 331................. 46.8%.............. 410
    LAB......... 31.2% ............ 232 ................ 24.9% ............. 161
    LIB Dems 8.1% ............... 8 .................... 11.2% ............. 10
  • rpjs
    rpjs Posts: 3,787
    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:

    One of the exit polls has the two frontrunners neck and neck which makes things slightly more interesting.

    I don't really understand why there would be more than one exit poll (of the 'vote count' variety). Surely the production of such a poll requires the granting of official access to the ballot papers, and if so why would the authorities want more than one of them? Or is it insurance against an outlier?
    From the Guardian article I got the impression that the raw, actual, polling figures are the same, but each pollster has their own proprietary weightings and assumptions to transform the raw figures to a prediction.

    The Guardian article says historically these predictions are accurate to within a percentage point or so, but given that the early-closing polling stations that provided the figures are in rural and small town areas, which is Le Pen's best territory, maybe her position is being slightly overstated?
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    chestnut said:

    For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

    Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

    Firstly, there will be a legislative election in June. Macron will put forward a bloc, and other parties will need to decide how they approach it. Presumably, more than one will take a constructive line - it's silly to go into an election saying "we will block everything that the new President YOU have elected wants to do" (unless you're the hard right or hard left).

    Secondly, the French legislature is relatively weak and party system relatively fluid. There have been cohabitations in the past and although it certainly weakens the President, they are not sidelined.

    I suspect it will work quite well. The Republicans will go in saying "we'll help Macron reform the economy... put some lead in his pencil". The Socialists will go in saying "we'll help Macron while reining him back on labour market reform". The Greens will go in saying "we'll help Macron and inject environmental conscience etc". The FN and Commies will go in saying "FU, Macron". Macron's bloc will say, "well, if you want a Macron presidency, elect a Macron MP".
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    With 35% counted, Le Pen is estimated 21.6-22.0%, Macron 23.0-23.8%, Fillon 19.5-20.3%, Melenchon 19.0-19.6%

    See: https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    How come so many people vote in France ?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    chestnut said:

    For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

    Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

    Firstly, there will be a legislative election in June. Macron will put forward a bloc, and other parties will need to decide how they approach it. Presumably, more than one will take a constructive line - it's silly to go into an election saying "we will block everything that the new President YOU have elected wants to do" (unless you're the hard right or hard left).

    Secondly, the French legislature is relatively weak and party system relatively fluid. There have been cohabitations in the past and although it certainly weakens the President, they are not sidelined.

    I suspect it will work quite well. The Republicans will go in saying "we'll help Macron reform the economy... put some lead in his pencil". The Socialists will go in saying "we'll help Macron while reining him back on labour market reform". The Greens will go in saying "we'll help Macron and inject environmental conscience etc". The FN and Commies will go in saying "FU, Macron". Macron's bloc will say, "well, if you want a Macron presidency, elect a Macron MP".
    I expect the LR will win the legislative elections
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Putney, if Labour lose over 70 seats (almost exactly Cannae, for those keeping up), then Lib Dems only getting 10, a gain of 2 from last time and 1 from current standings, is not great.

    Cheers for those stats, by the way.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I was first and my comment has disappeared

    For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.

    @SquareRoot @MTimT and @foxinsoxuk all claimed firsts!
    There's an issue with vanilla and wordpress at the moment.

    When I publish directly via the website it is fine, when I use the app it causes multiple vanilla forum discussions
    Yes, looks like an integration bug between the two. Vanilla is seeing the 'create discussion' request multiple times, if it only happens when using Wordpress app then that's probably the source. More likely to see it fixed by logging the bug with Vanilla though, as they're your paid supplier. They can probably do something server side like restrict posting new threads to one a minute.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    With 35% counted, Le Pen is estimated 21.6-22.0%, Macron 23.0-23.8%, Fillon 19.5-20.3%, Melenchon 19.0-19.6%

    See: https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election

    where on that page is that estimate?
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Iain Martin not impressed:

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/856213473998639104
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    surbiton said:

    La France, encore une fois leader de l'Europe

    [ The best google could do ]

    All we now need is for Scotland to be in it.

    What has a Blairite former investment banker being the likely next French President got to do with success for the centre left and nationalist SNP?
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Go on Macron! Atta boy!

    SUPREME EFFORT. Looks like the populist right is about to get smashed. Bring on Round Two.

    LET'S ALL MOVE TO FRANCE.
  • Arthur_Penny
    Arthur_Penny Posts: 198
    SouthamObserver said:

    surbiton said:

    This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

    I want Macron to crush the Racist.

    And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

    Je suis avec toi, mon ami!!

    Pas moi - L' Allemange Merkel elle est fini.Combien sont arrivés en Allemagne sont maintenant en France - avec AK47s. Seulement 20% sont venus de Syrie.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Interestingly, Betfair Sportsbook's odds on the Conservatives for Richmond Park have lengthened a bit, from 5/4 to 6/4. Seems a little counter-intuitive, but there we are.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    surbiton said:

    This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

    I want Macron to crush the Racist.

    And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

    Macron wants job cuts, tax cuts and conscription. He's no Corbynite Francais.
    lol

    meet the CGT

  • Cyan
    Cyan Posts: 1,262
    Average of five polls (Elabe, Harris, Ifop, Ipsos, Kantar):

    Macron 23.64%
    Le Pen 22.06%
    Fillon 19.66%
    Mélenchon 19.52%
    Hamon 6.36%
    Dupont-Aignan 4.82%
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    bobajobPB said:

    Go on Macron! Atta boy!

    SUPREME EFFORT. Looks like the populist right is about to get smashed. Bring on Round Two.

    LET'S ALL MOVE TO FRANCE.

    byeeee
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