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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exit poll says Macron and Le Pen make it into round two.

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  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    What would have happened if Hamon dropped out ?

    What would happen if Corbyn drops out and the NEC elects Cooper as Leader ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:


    For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.

    @SquareRoot @MTimT and @foxinsoxuk all claimed firsts!

    Fake News.

    "There can be only one..."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,730
    SeanT said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)

    In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
    Nearly half the vote went to extreme right or left candidates. This is more like Hindenburg winning in 1932. Preferable to the alternatives, but cold comfort.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    Pulpstar said:

    Laying Le Pen over 30% was the most ridiculous free money all year.

    Or that might be laying Corbyn to be next PM.

    Definitely laying Le Pen. Next PM might be open for a decade yet.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    hes a third way politician whos about to meet numbers one and two
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    SeanT said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)

    In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
    The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    bobajobPB said:

    Go on Macron! Atta boy!

    SUPREME EFFORT. Looks like the populist right is about to get smashed. Bring on Round Two.

    LET'S ALL MOVE TO FRANCE.

    Marine Le Pen has got the highest FN total in a presidential election ever and higher than UKIP have ever got in a UK general election
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    He's the NOTA candidate.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    People finally coming to their senses after seeing the embarrassing shambles that are Trump, Corbyn and Brexit?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    SeanT said:

    The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.

    Yes. Fillon without the scandal would have gotten 28% or so in the polls, and Macron would have been in the teens.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    bobajobPB said:

    Go on Macron! Atta boy!

    SUPREME EFFORT. Looks like the populist right is about to get smashed. Bring on Round Two.

    LET'S ALL MOVE TO FRANCE.

    Kind of worrying that Le Pen is doing this well though isn't it? Depending on how things go for Macron in the next few years you could see her having a real chance of the Presidency in four years?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Go on Macron! Atta boy!

    SUPREME EFFORT. Looks like the populist right is about to get smashed. Bring on Round Two.

    LET'S ALL MOVE TO FRANCE.

    Marine Le Pen has got the highest FN total in a presidential election ever and higher than UKIP have ever got in a UK general election
    Yeah, have an orgasm out of that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example:
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    bobajobPB said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    People finally coming to their senses after seeing the embarrassing shambles that are Trump, Corbyn and Brexit?
    And Macron will be an embarrassing failure - just like Hollande has been.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    HYUFD said:
    Is David going to launch En Marche UK? I'd vote for it.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912

    Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example:
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601

    That's unweighted absolute votes cast.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example:
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601

    Correct, the rural areas had an hour head start.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited April 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    With 35% counted, Le Pen is estimated 21.6-22.0%, Macron 23.0-23.8%, Fillon 19.5-20.3%, Melenchon 19.0-19.6%

    See: https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election

    Sounds like French polls are pretty spot on. A lesson for the second round. I have been tipping Macron to come top for weeks. Even this morning he was at 3.

    I like Macron, he has charm and charisma, and It is delighful to have a politician spreading optimism rather than fear.

    Vive La France!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    Is David going to launch En Marche UK? I'd vote for it.
    how ?

    you'll be in France
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    SeanT said:

    The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.


    Chortle.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    surbiton said:

    La France, encore une fois leader de l'Europe

    [ The best google could do ]

    All we now need is for Scotland to be in it.

    What has a Blairite former investment banker being the likely next French President got to do with success for the centre left and nationalist SNP?
    EVERYTHING. He is not Racist and he is not a criminal. And, he is pro-EUROPE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    SeanT said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)

    In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
    Certainly at least it's a bit much for it to be a 'triumph' over any ideology yet - he edged the first round and will handsomely win the second.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. 1000 and Mr. Rabbit, thanks for that clarification.

    So, somewhat useful but shouldn't be treated as representative of the country as a whole, but the more rural parts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652

    Based on the latest polling data Martin Baxter forecasts the Tories to have an overall majority of 170 seats as follows:

    Party 2015 Votes 2015 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
    CON........ 37.8%.............. 331................. 46.8%.............. 410
    LAB......... 31.2% ............ 232 ................ 24.9% ............. 161
    LIB Dems 8.1% ............... 8 .................... 11.2% ............. 10

    My spreadsheet has Labour on precisely 161 seats on that votesplit too.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    bobajobPB said:

    SeanT said:

    The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.


    Chortle.
    Referencing an earlier PB thread... the Tories would have won it... ;)
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    GIN1138 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Go on Macron! Atta boy!

    SUPREME EFFORT. Looks like the populist right is about to get smashed. Bring on Round Two.

    LET'S ALL MOVE TO FRANCE.

    Kind of worrying that Le Pen is doing this well though isn't it? Depending on how things go for Macron in the next few years you could see her having a real chance of the Presidency in four years?
    No chance. Macron will win easily and centrism will be revived in the world's fifth largest economy. A night for most decent folk to celebrate. Viva La France!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Surbiton, pro-EU. The EU is not Europe.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554

    Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example:
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601

    This will be the live results from actual counts. Like saying Labour are ahead after Sunderland declared I guess.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Mr. 1000 and Mr. Rabbit, thanks for that clarification.

    So, somewhat useful but shouldn't be treated as representative of the country as a whole, but the more rural parts.

    well it's like getting to 1AM, Labour are 100 to 50 seats up and proclaiming them winners...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Based on the latest polling data Martin Baxter forecasts the Tories to have an overall majority of 170 seats as follows:

    Party 2015 Votes 2015 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
    CON........ 37.8%.............. 331................. 46.8%.............. 410
    LAB......... 31.2% ............ 232 ................ 24.9% ............. 161
    LIB Dems 8.1% ............... 8 .................... 11.2% ............. 10

    This is, of course, based on "baxterisation". 1997 did not quite turn out as expected.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Macron, il a l'air un peu Cleggois, n'est-ce pas?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example:
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601

    Correct, the rural areas had an hour head start.
    What's the reasoning behind that?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Mr. Surbiton, pro-EU. The EU is not Europe.

    It is the SAME.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    bobajobPB said:

    Go on Macron! Atta boy!

    SUPREME EFFORT. Looks like the populist right is about to get smashed. Bring on Round Two.

    LET'S ALL MOVE TO FRANCE.

    byeeee

    I'll still post on here Alan, you won't get rid of me that easily monsieur!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    edited April 2017
    Fillon now conceding and urges supporters to focus on runoff, says he will vote for Macron in runoff to keep out Le Pen but it is for his voters' conscience to choose what is best for their country
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    NDA will be wondering whether he'll be making the 5% cutoff for the state to pay his expenses.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912

    bobajobPB said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    People finally coming to their senses after seeing the embarrassing shambles that are Trump, Corbyn and Brexit?
    And Macron will be an embarrassing failure - just like Hollande has been.
    He's a bright tough cookie. France has three problems - the labour market, vested interests and the Euro - and he's got the right answers about two of them. Mme Le Pen has the right answer about one. I think we all have a tendency to see the French economy too much through the eyes of "the Euro" and "the EU". In truth, France is an over-regulated economy, and Fillon would probably have done the best job of sorting that out. But Le Pen - who believes that the French economy is too free market - would have been a disaster for average French people.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Go on Macron! Atta boy!

    SUPREME EFFORT. Looks like the populist right is about to get smashed. Bring on Round Two.

    LET'S ALL MOVE TO FRANCE.

    byeeee

    I'll still post on here Alan, you won't get rid of me that easily monsieur!
    only when theyre not on strike
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    edited April 2017

    rcs1000 said:

    With 35% counted, Le Pen is estimated 21.6-22.0%, Macron 23.0-23.8%, Fillon 19.5-20.3%, Melenchon 19.0-19.6%

    See: https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election

    where on that page is that estimate?
    If you click on the areas in France you can see the breakdown in districts - but the final result for that area is not going to be shown until all of them are counted.

    Dont forget many areas stopped voting 1 3/4 hours ago.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)

    In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
    The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
    Correct. Amazing effort from Macron – who is making history doing it without a party machine. @SeanT should doff his gin-addled Cornish cap.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    surbiton said:

    Mr. Surbiton, pro-EU. The EU is not Europe.

    It is the SAME.
    Norway is not in Europe? Wonder what the Norwegians think of that. Same for Switzerland...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,646
    @foxinsoxuk Wont people be voting for Macron through fear of Le Pen?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    Is David going to launch En Marche UK? I'd vote for it.
    I doubt it but he will try and push Labour in a Macronite direction, Macron is basically a French Orange Book LD
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Sandpit said:

    Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example:
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601

    This will be the live results from actual counts. Like saying Labour are ahead after Sunderland declared I guess.
    Every time I hope there's not-very-attentive people on both sides who get really over excited/upset by the early slew of Labour results from the north east.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    Is David going to launch En Marche UK? I'd vote for it.
    Hello ! Hello ! What's cooking here ?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    There are a surprising number of lefties here celebrating an election where the main party of the left got 6%.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    HYUFD said:

    Fillon now conceding and urges supporters to focus on runoff, says he will vote for Macron in runoff to keep out Le Pen but it is for his voters' conscience to choose what is best for their country

    as good as an endorsement. Now what about melenchon... and Hollande...
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    @foxinsoxuk Wont people be voting for Macron through fear of Le Pen?

    But unlike her father she will cross the 30% threshold, I feel but not 40%.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531
    rcs1000 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    People finally coming to their senses after seeing the embarrassing shambles that are Trump, Corbyn and Brexit?
    And Macron will be an embarrassing failure - just like Hollande has been.
    He's a bright tough cookie. France has three problems - the labour market, vested interests and the Euro - and he's got the right answers about two of them. Mme Le Pen has the right answer about one. I think we all have a tendency to see the French economy too much through the eyes of "the Euro" and "the EU". In truth, France is an over-regulated economy, and Fillon would probably have done the best job of sorting that out. But Le Pen - who believes that the French economy is too free market - would have been a disaster for average French people.
    Fillon certainly has liberal employment views when it comes to close family!
  • I do not know much about French politics but it does seem that Macron is the right choice and hope that there will be stability in France and wish the Country well
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    Mr. Surbiton, pro-EU. The EU is not Europe.

    It is the SAME.
    Norway is not in Europe? Wonder what the Norwegians think of that. Same for Switzerland...
    Irrelevant, the two are the same, it has been declared.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    Obviously at your own risk, but if you believe the level-pegging (at the top) poll, you can lay Macron to win round one at 1.13. I did that a bit, just to eliminate any redness.


    Morris, I believe you have been on Macron to win in both rounds for a while? A position I quietly considered wrong (I assumed Le Pen would win Round One). Yet you look near certain to be correct. All credit to you.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017

    HYUFD said:

    Fillon now conceding and urges supporters to focus on runoff, says he will vote for Macron in runoff to keep out Le Pen but it is for his voters' conscience to choose what is best for their country

    as good as an endorsement. Now what about melenchon... and Hollande...
    Hollande almost certainly voted for Macron as did half the cabinet.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    When you've lost every single time for the last three years any win is worth celebrating. So tonight I am a very happy boy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689

    I do not know much about French politics but it does seem that Macron is the right choice and hope that there will be stability in France and wish the Country well

    May was at least shrewd in that the only French presidential candidate she invited to 10 Downing Street was Macron
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    surbiton said:

    @foxinsoxuk Wont people be voting for Macron through fear of Le Pen?

    But unlike her father she will cross the 30% threshold, I feel but not 40%.
    Does she have any children herself who can take a crack at cracking 40% in 15 years? I suppose th eniece could take up that challenge.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    Is David going to launch En Marche UK? I'd vote for it.
    Splitting on the left.. bring it on!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    rcs1000 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    People finally coming to their senses after seeing the embarrassing shambles that are Trump, Corbyn and Brexit?
    And Macron will be an embarrassing failure - just like Hollande has been.
    He's a bright tough cookie. France has three problems - the labour market, vested interests and the Euro - and he's got the right answers about two of them. Mme Le Pen has the right answer about one. I think we all have a tendency to see the French economy too much through the eyes of "the Euro" and "the EU". In truth, France is an over-regulated economy, and Fillon would probably have done the best job of sorting that out. But Le Pen - who believes that the French economy is too free market - would have been a disaster for average French people.
    Even assuming he has the right answers doesn't mean he will be able to put them into practice.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712

    HYUFD said:

    Fillon now conceding and urges supporters to focus on runoff, says he will vote for Macron in runoff to keep out Le Pen but it is for his voters' conscience to choose what is best for their country

    as good as an endorsement. Now what about melenchon... and Hollande...
    watch as his missus case gets quietly kicked in to the long grass
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    There are a surprising number of lefties here celebrating an election where the main party of the left got 6%.

    There will be great cheers when Merkel wins too !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)

    In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
    The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
    But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.

    He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.

    The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.

    That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
    Macron is a smart, successful guy, bright, tough guy. That may not be enough, as France has problems aplenty, and the vested interests are huge. But at least he understands basic economics.

    Also, you know what, good for him for starting his own political movement at 39 and topping the French polls.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited April 2017
    Just a note:

    The French interior ministry warned a couple of hours back that SMS messages putting out results claiming to be from them are not genuine.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    edited April 2017
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example:
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601

    This will be the live results from actual counts. Like saying Labour are ahead after Sunderland declared I guess.
    Every time I hope there's not-very-attentive people on both sides who get really over excited/upset by the early slew of Labour results from the north east.
    And we pray that they're making bets based on the seat numbers on the TV in front of them!

    First real indicator is usually Nuneaton, everything else before about 02:30 is just noise.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689

    HYUFD said:

    Fillon now conceding and urges supporters to focus on runoff, says he will vote for Macron in runoff to keep out Le Pen but it is for his voters' conscience to choose what is best for their country

    as good as an endorsement. Now what about melenchon... and Hollande...
    They will all endorse Macron as all candidates endorsed Chirac v her father in 2002, the only endorsement Le Pen might get is Dupont Aignan
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Surbiton, what year did the Romans join the EU?

    Mr. Rabbit, election night may be quite interesting. An apt analogy.

    Mr. Sandpit, cheers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147

    When you've lost every single time for the last three years any win is worth celebrating. So tonight I am a very happy boy.

    Swings and roundabouts. Your side will soon be on the ascendancy again.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    HYUFD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    HYUFD said:
    Is David going to launch En Marche UK? I'd vote for it.
    I doubt it but he will try and push Labour in a Macronite direction, Macron is basically a French Orange Book LD
    Well in that case he needs to get himself in the mix and get his arse over here.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    SeanT said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)

    In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
    The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
    But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.

    He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.

    The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.

    That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
    Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.

    He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.

    The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    There are a surprising number of lefties here celebrating an election where the main party of the left got 6%.

    What a shame that Hamon didn't pull out and back Mélenchon. Mélenchon would probably be in R2 now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    surbiton said:

    There are a surprising number of lefties here celebrating an election where the main party of the left got 6%.

    There will be great cheers when Merkel wins too !
    No love for Schulz?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912

    rcs1000 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    dodrade said:

    Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

    People finally coming to their senses after seeing the embarrassing shambles that are Trump, Corbyn and Brexit?
    And Macron will be an embarrassing failure - just like Hollande has been.
    He's a bright tough cookie. France has three problems - the labour market, vested interests and the Euro - and he's got the right answers about two of them. Mme Le Pen has the right answer about one. I think we all have a tendency to see the French economy too much through the eyes of "the Euro" and "the EU". In truth, France is an over-regulated economy, and Fillon would probably have done the best job of sorting that out. But Le Pen - who believes that the French economy is too free market - would have been a disaster for average French people.
    Even assuming he has the right answers doesn't mean he will be able to put them into practice.
    I don't disagree. He has a real fight on his hands.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Labour are sending Corbyn either to ultra-safe seats or hopeless lost causes: the evidence...

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856205132874346498
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Y0kel, blimey. Real fake news, potentially.

    We should probably be wary of that on our election nights too (apologies for posting that tweet before, but if I hadn't and it proved accurate I didn't want people to lose money).
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    HYUFD said:

    Fillon now conceding and urges supporters to focus on runoff, says he will vote for Macron in runoff to keep out Le Pen but it is for his voters' conscience to choose what is best for their country

    as good as an endorsement.
    Only a personal one. There will probably be other leading figures in LR who back Le Pen.

  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Read his book, Revolution, he's no fool.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652
    Does anyone have a link to the livecount. Betfair is at 1.25 for Macron to win the first round, which might be utterly enormous, but I'd like to see some results for myself.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    Bloomberg currently have Le Pen 25.1% Macron 21.3% on their live interior results ticker.

    The exit poll was done by Ipsos. Are they better in France than they are in the UK?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    edited April 2017
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fillon now conceding and urges supporters to focus on runoff, says he will vote for Macron in runoff to keep out Le Pen but it is for his voters' conscience to choose what is best for their country

    as good as an endorsement. Now what about melenchon... and Hollande...
    They will all endorse Macron as all candidates endorsed Chirac v her father in 2002, the only endorsement Le Pen might get is Dupont Aignan
    It's a shame NDA never got the mojo. France - and Europe generally - needs sensible Eurosceptics. (As opposed to anti-semitic or plain mad ones.)
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    RobD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    SeanT said:

    The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.


    Chortle.
    Referencing an earlier PB thread... the Tories would have won it... ;)

    The Tories blew it. Fillon is a goner.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example:
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601

    This will be the live results from actual counts. Like saying Labour are ahead after Sunderland declared I guess.
    Every time I hope there's not-very-attentive people on both sides who get really over excited/upset by the early slew of Labour results from the north east.
    And we pray that they're making bets based on the seat numbers on the TV in front of them!

    First real indicator is usually Nuneaton, everything else before about 02:30 is just noise.
    The thing I hate most about election night is politicians on the TV between 10pm and 2am who say "I'm not here to speculate".
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example:
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601

    This will be the live results from actual counts. Like saying Labour are ahead after Sunderland declared I guess.
    Every time I hope there's not-very-attentive people on both sides who get really over excited/upset by the early slew of Labour results from the north east.
    And we pray that they're making bets based on the seat numbers on the TV in front of them!

    First real indicator is usually Nuneaton, everything else before about 02:30 is just noise.
    Swindon North was first last time at about 12:40am.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549

    Labour are sending Corbyn either to ultra-safe seats or hopeless lost causes: the evidence...

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856205132874346498

    Well 21st Century Socialism is sweeping the nation, so every seat is up for grabs....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,646
    I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    When you've lost every single time for the last three years any win is worth celebrating. So tonight I am a very happy boy.


    I'm with you there, comrade.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    bobajobPB said:

    RobD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    SeanT said:

    The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.


    Chortle.
    Referencing an earlier PB thread... the Tories would have won it... ;)

    The Tories blew it. Fillon is a goner.
    Last time I checked he wasn't a member of the UK Conservative Party ;)
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited April 2017

    Mr. Y0kel, blimey. Real fake news, potentially.

    We should probably be wary of that on our election nights too (apologies for posting that tweet before, but if I hadn't and it proved accurate I didn't want people to lose money).

    The Interior Ministry doesn't do SMS apparently.

    It is true that the cities did close their stations later so some flow in results may be expected.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Just came in to see the news.

    Amazing. Of course there was always a chance it would happen but to see it actually transpire. Fabulous. A real two fingers up to the naysayers.

    Now all we need to do is wallop Chelsea in the final.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,652

    I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.

    Link.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fillon now conceding and urges supporters to focus on runoff, says he will vote for Macron in runoff to keep out Le Pen but it is for his voters' conscience to choose what is best for their country

    as good as an endorsement. Now what about melenchon... and Hollande...
    They will all endorse Macron as all candidates endorsed Chirac v her father in 2002, the only endorsement Le Pen might get is Dupont Aignan
    It's a shame NDA never got the mojo. France - and Europe generally - needs sensible Eurosceptics. (As opposed to anti-semitic or plain mad ones.)
    If it had been Juppe as LR candidate rather than Fillon Juppe may have done better overall and perhaps even beaten Macron but NDA would have got some of Fillon's support
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The 2015 running totals spreadsheet will be ready in the next few days if anyone's interested.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Bobajob, if a Conservative leader were in Fillon's position, regicide would've happened immediately.

    You can fault the Conservatives for many things, but an unwillingness or inability to oust a leader is not one of them.

    Mr. Pulpstar, interesting, he's gone out a little. Was 1.1 last I checked.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,912
    chestnut said:

    Bloomberg currently have Le Pen 25.1% Macron 21.3% on their live interior results ticker.

    The exit poll was done by Ipsos. Are they better in France than they are in the UK?

    That's because rural polling stations closed at 7pm, while urban ones closed at 8pm. She's much stronger in rural than urban France.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    There are a surprising number of lefties here celebrating an election where the main party of the left got 6%.

    Macron would be an LD in this country, or perhaps Blairite, without the warmongering. I like the guy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    AndyJS said:

    The 2015 running totals spreadsheet will be ready in the next few days if anyone's interested.

    Very interested! What are you planning for this year?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    When you've lost every single time for the last three years any win is worth celebrating. So tonight I am a very happy boy.

    The French [ also the Dutch to some extent ] have restored my faith in humanity.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Labour are sending Corbyn either to ultra-safe seats or hopeless lost causes: the evidence...

    https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/856205132874346498

    If Corbyn's visiting Labour Have Given Up: - ICVLHGU
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    An Italian prosecutor says he has evidence some of the charities saving migrants in the Mediterranean Sea are colluding with people-smugglers.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39686239
This discussion has been closed.