Tories won't govern for ever. Politics will realign. Labour (or a successor) will win in 2022 or 2027. And I bet they put Single Market membership in their manifesto.
Single market membership means accepting the four "freedoms" including free movement. How is Labour meant to sell that to their traditional supporter?
I'm really not a fan of these types of arrangements if they are not formal pacts agreed well in advance, and even then I'd prefer not to see it. I am sure most people considering voting LD in Brighton would prefer Lucas to risking a Tory MP, or even a Lab MP, but maybe some of them really wanted to vote for their first preference even if it meant someone not of their party lost their seat.
It's giving up on an area and submitting to another party, not bothering to see if maybe you can surprise, and you might as well be in the same party, with broader factions, if you are going to do that, if defeating party X is the only thing that matters rather than advancing your own parties specific ideology. What about when Lucas goes? Is it ok to stand then? Why? The next Green will start from a higher position than any other progressive, and the lack of LD challenge might be even more significant.
It is why we need AV, or better still French style 2 round elections.
Sadly not on the agenda I would guess.
But really, the Greens? I would think for people who claim to be pretty centrist the Greens would be further away ideologically than most Tories.
I have voted Green in the past at GE (2005 in Leicester South), I didn't expect them to win, but wanted the government to take Green issues seriously. Just as UKIP have influenced the agenda while flopping at FPTP.
I initially added this as an edit too
It says to me that, once again, it isn't about left or right, ill defined as they are, or centrism or progressiveness. It's about not being Tories, the only thing that matters to some.
LDs like Cable really don't want the votes of people who are not fans of May but not fans of the far left either.
It's very interesting that the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll is level pegging despite the massive approvals for May and signs of a landslide on the way.
It emphasises that the Brexit vote was driven as much by discontent with the style of domestic politics than by anyone's views of the EU.
The utter rejection of Corbyn's brand of post-imperial cringe politics will be another step on the road to us coming to terms with the reality of being a normal, mainstream European country that belongs in the political structures of normal, mainstream Europe.
Yep, just not in the EU :-)
We willbe back in, but not for a while.
I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the EU (especially as it is very likely to Federalise with us out, and to make the euro work)
But cheer up, there is a pretty good chance we will rejoin the Single Market and EEA/EFTA, and probably quite soon (for reasons I explain downthread). A future centre left party will put it in their manifesto, and they will, eventually, win.
I expect a move into the EEA as a gateway to rejoining, but not for a while. We will have to wait for the Tory Europhiles to be ascendant again.
I can't see us ever rejoin the EU which will now focus on the Eurozone if Macron wins
Yes, Le Pen now leading in 42 departements to 16 for Macron, 8 for Fillon and 2 for Melenchon with over half the departements now coming in. I am coming close to calling the 1st round for Le Pen if this trend continues. Le Pen is not only winning almost all the Sarkozy areas but sweeping the former Socialist industrial North East, it looks like yet another exit poll failure
Tories won't govern for ever. Politics will realign. Labour (or a successor) will win in 2022 or 2027. And I bet they put Single Market membership in their manifesto.
Single market membership means accepting the four "freedoms" including free movement. How is Labour meant to sell that to their traditional supporter?
Not on the new, Article 20 basis free movement. Old free movement.
It's very interesting that the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll is level pegging despite the massive approvals for May and signs of a landslide on the way.
It emphasises that the Brexit vote was driven as much by discontent with the style of domestic politics than by anyone's views of the EU.
The utter rejection of Corbyn's brand of post-imperial cringe politics will be another step on the road to us coming to terms with the reality of being a normal, mainstream European country that belongs in the political structures of normal, mainstream Europe.
Yep, just not in the EU :-)
We willbe back in, but not for a while.
I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the EU (especially as it is very likely to Federalise with us out, and to make the euro work)
But cheer up, there is a pretty good chance we will rejoin the Single Market and EEA/EFTA, and probably quite soon (for reasons I explain downthread). A future centre left party will put it in their manifesto, and they will, eventually, win.
I expect a move into the EEA as a gateway to rejoining, but not for a while. We will have to wait for the Tory Europhiles to be ascendant again.
Tories won't govern for ever. Politics will realign. Labour (or a successor) will win in 2022 or 2027. And I bet they put Single Market membership in their manifesto.
Why?
The Single Market was the most appealing part of the Community for the right. It was Thatchers baby. It is the left wing politics from Delors onwards that appeals most to the left and much of that requires full re-entry not just the Market.
St Vince of Cable wants Lib Dems in Brighton to vote for Lucas.
It tells you a lot about Cable's politics that he will endorse crackpots like the Greens.
Indeed. Not going to do him any favours in Twickenham, I fear. Makes him look anti-Tory above all other considerations, which doesn't feel like the right approach for that constituency.
Yes, Le Pen now leading in 42 departements to 16 for Macron, 8 for Fillon and 2 for Melenchon with over half the departements now coming in. I am coming close to calling the 1st round for Le Pen if this trend continues
St Vince of Cable wants Lib Dems in Brighton to vote for Lucas.
It tells you a lot about Cable's politics that he will endorse crackpots like the Greens.
Indeed. Not going to do him any favours in Twickenham, I fear. Makes him look anti-Tory above all other considerations, which doesn't feel like the right approach for that constituency.
Good old Uncle Vince economic wiseman, safe pair of hands and all that, endorsing people who are basically lunatics.
I hope in due course that a journalist asks Vince which bits of the Green manifesto he agrees with.
I like him in small, infrequent exposures. It really is the same message every time, with different situations. But it is a message I agree with - listen to the f*cking voters!
Yes, Le Pen now leading in 42 departements to 16 for Macron, 8 for Fillon and 2 for Melenchon with over half the departements now coming in. I am coming close to calling the 1st round for Le Pen if this trend continues
Any idea how things will shake down in NI this time around? Nationalists to regain Fermanagh and South Tyrone? Unionist pacts to help gain another seat?
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
Mood at Macron HQ notably a little more sombre than it was an hour or so before, though they are still shouting 'Macron President' but not exactly cheering to the rafters
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
actually defines the parties by their positioning on the left/right axis? I reckon there would be big complaints if the media did this in such a blunt way in this country?
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
Paris in my experience they were lived up to the stereotype (and I can speak enough French to get about). But then most Northern folk in the UK think all Londoners are bloody rude too.
In terms of stereotype of being rude, Chinese are different league to French.
Mood at Macron HQ notably a little more sombre than it was an hour or so before, though they are still shouting 'Macron President' but not exactly cheering to the rafters
Being in tbe final 2 nails it on for him, the only betting interest is by how much.
Tories won't govern for ever. Politics will realign. Labour (or a successor) will win in 2022 or 2027. And I bet they put Single Market membership in their manifesto.
Single market membership means accepting the four "freedoms" including free movement. How is Labour meant to sell that to their traditional supporter?
I think politics will realign. Eventually. And there will be a centre left Remainery party, with social democratic values They won't be able to win a referendum to rejoin the EU, but they will be able to sell Single Market membership.
Plus, I think the EU itself will reform Free Movement.
The Brexiteers will convince themselves that it was thanks to them and their courage in voting for Brexit that the EU suddenly stopped being a barrier to global trade, that it suddenly started being compatible with national sovereignty and that it was forced to tackle extremism. Like an Apple product, we'll tell everyone that we invented it.
But really, the Greens? I would think for people who claim to be pretty centrist the Greens would be further away ideologically than most Tories (not all, admittedly).
My order of preference would be: All LibDems except Cable, Conservative, Green, Labour, Cable...
It is rather like the opposite of the USA election - there we had the 'establishment' candidate getting her votes in quickly from the cities and the 'populist' candidate hauling them back from the rural areas. Now we have the populist candidate getting her votes in quickly from the rural areas and the 'centrist' candidate probably pulling them back from the towns.
St Vince of Cable wants Lib Dems in Brighton to vote for Lucas.
It tells you a lot about Cable's politics that he will endorse crackpots like the Greens.
Indeed. Not going to do him any favours in Twickenham, I fear. Makes him look anti-Tory above all other considerations, which doesn't feel like the right approach for that constituency.
Good old Uncle Vince economic wiseman, safe pair of hands and all that, endorsing people who are basically lunatics.
I hope in due course that a journalist asks Vince which bits of the Green manifesto he agrees with.
The disparity between the people who smugly vote Green to those who run the Green Party is hilarious.
The disparity between the people who smugly vote Green to those who run the Green Party is hilarious.
People think Greens are all about organic veg, free trade, renewable energy and so on. That's the surface, the core is bonkers far left drivel than even Corbyn would be embarrassed about.
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
Paris in my experience they were lived up to the stereotype (and I can speak enough French to get about). But then most Northern folk in the UK think all Londoners are bloody rude too.
I don't think Paris any ruder than London or New York. That is big cities for you.
France is rather like Britain in the Seventies, politically, industrially and racially divided, living on past glories. It does have significant advantages though, including a stronger manufacuring sector and a better balance of payments, as well as twice the land area. It will be resurgent, and with our cop out regain a lot of influence in the EU.
If Le Pen ends up with 21.5%, is it significantly different from what her father scored in the first round ? For all the media management, the votes have not changed much.
If Le Pen ends up with 21.5%, is it significantly different from what her father scored in the first round ? For all the media management, the votes have not changed much.
Once a racist, always a racist.
Up by 5-11%, depending on the election year.
If polls are correct, she'll do about 20% better than him in round 2.
What was the basis for thinking that Plaid would be a particular threat, even with their leader? The big movement in Wales is due to Brexit, which shouldn't switch votes between Labour and PC.
actually defines the parties by their positioning on the left/right axis? I reckon there would be big complaints if the media did this in such a blunt way in this country?
If I'm reading those little "zebra crossings" right (under the map), then turn out is 79%. I'm impressed.
In France one needs to distinguish between economic leftwing and social leftwing. MLP is very the first and very not the second. Bit like... er... no, best not . Oh well.
What was the basis for thinking that Plaid would be a particular threat, even with their leader? The big movement in Wales is due to Brexit, which shouldn't switch votes between Labour and PC.
Yeah, people on here have a weird idea about how popular Plaid are in Wales
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
Paris in my experience they were lived up to the stereotype (and I can speak enough French to get about). But then most Northern folk in the UK think all Londoners are bloody rude too.
In terms of stereotype of being rude, Chinese are different league to French.
Yeah, Parisians like Londoners are busy, and surrounded by people. Michael McIntyre's 'saying hello on the tube' sketch applies I suspect.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
I thought Boba was a committed lefty ?
He's a French Lefty - in theory, but not in practice.....you should have heard him go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and when someone (himself) on well over average income had their child benefit taken away.....
Child benefit should be an universal benefit.
Says the expatriate rentier......
I think you are muddling him up with @tyson. I believe @surbiton runs a small engineering company (machine parts?) in Surrey
What was the basis for thinking that Plaid would be a particular threat, even with their leader? The big movement in Wales is due to Brexit, which shouldn't switch votes between Labour and PC.
A little grumble:
When are Sportsbook going to put the Constituencies in alphabetic order? it is all a bit haphazard at present.
If Le Pen ends up with 21.5%, is it significantly different from what her father scored in the first round ? For all the media management, the votes have not changed much.
Once a racist, always a racist.
Yes, it's about 5% higher than her father in 2002 (and the FN drifted after that, doing poorly in 2007 with Jean-Marie). He was also absolutely hammered in the second round, and she will be will beaten but not hammered.
I do think the coverage of FN jubilance is overplayed though. Marine was looking good to win the first round comfortably not long ago. But she has more likely scraped through having peaked and edged back.
What was the basis for thinking that Plaid would be a particular threat, even with their leader? The big movement in Wales is due to Brexit, which shouldn't switch votes between Labour and PC.
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
I have had some great times in France, I had a place in rural Normandy and I spoke enough French to get by, my wife was very fluent.
Paris is not like the rest of France.
The French people I met were generally great.
My favorite anecdote was when we holidaying on the Med. Youngest taken quite ill and the dr was great but we had to find a late opening chemist. Struggling to find it in Agde with not long to go before it closed I in desperation knocked on someones front door to ask directions.
Bless the bloke, this place was a bit out of the way and we were struggling with directions, he insisted in getting in his car and getting us to follow him there.
BTW woman on Sky has said she thinks a possibility the order might be wrong and Le Pen may inch into first place.
What was the basis for thinking that Plaid would be a particular threat, even with their leader? The big movement in Wales is due to Brexit, which shouldn't switch votes between Labour and PC.
A little grumble:
When are Sportsbook going to put the Constituencies in alphabetic order? it is all a bit haphazard at present.
Which? Other than Blackburn, they are on my screen?
Can currently cash out for 3/4 of my potential winning on Macron first round winner. Any reason I should do that?
I think it safe, but I have just layed off a bit so as to go all green.
Sod it, zero'd out the field so a free bet on Macron.
Yep, Plenty of stake money coming in, though I have £500 more coming after the second round.
I have a little wedge on Macron over 25%, but think that he will fall a little short.
I bet an order of magnitude less money than you as I knew the square root of FA about France and it's politics, but I got on the Melenchon train @37 and left @11 because I can read a poll.
Only my complete ignorance stopped me diving onto the obviously mis-priced Macron as Iw as worried about not knowing about some non-existent show that was about to drop aka. The Rubio finished 3rd Now He's Odds on Favourite WTF Is Up About Jeb Bush's Price? effect
This one has partial results coloured in - Le Pen winning nearly everything in the eastern half of France.
Most of the departments are only partially declared (faint colour) mostly waiting on urban communes to declare). Several should change colour (probably from Le Prn to Macron's)) when fully declared. Currently just one department (Vosges) is fully declared in block colour.
What was the basis for thinking that Plaid would be a particular threat, even with their leader? The big movement in Wales is due to Brexit, which shouldn't switch votes between Labour and PC.
A little grumble:
When are Sportsbook going to put the Constituencies in alphabetic order? it is all a bit haphazard at present.
What would be great is if they could find some way to turn it into a coupon. Maybe a "Conservative" coupon, "Labour" coupon etc. Not sure how technically possible that would be though.
This one has partial results coloured in - Le Pen winning nearly everything in the eastern half of France.
Most of the departments are only partially declared (faint colour) mostly waiting on urban communes to declare). Several should change colour (probably from Le Prn to Macron's)) when fully declared. Currently just one department (Vosges) is fully declared in block colour.
What was the basis for thinking that Plaid would be a particular threat, even with their leader? The big movement in Wales is due to Brexit, which shouldn't switch votes between Labour and PC.
A little grumble:
When are Sportsbook going to put the Constituencies in alphabetic order? it is all a bit haphazard at present.
There was a big gap between M and V the last time I checked.
Comments
It says to me that, once again, it isn't about left or right, ill defined as they are, or centrism or progressiveness. It's about not being Tories, the only thing that matters to some.
LDs like Cable really don't want the votes of people who are not fans of May but not fans of the far left either.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-39679602
"Bomb left outside Ardoyne school was designed to kill officers, say police"
https://twitter.com/mralfredgarnett/status/856239838147866624
She appears to be winning almost everything.
Has Macron been handed the wrong Oscar envelope?
The Single Market was the most appealing part of the Community for the right. It was Thatchers baby. It is the left wing politics from Delors onwards that appeals most to the left and much of that requires full re-entry not just the Market.
Hundreds of Labour MPs will go seatless this June, struck down by an epidemic of Corbynitis. Just twenty thousand pounds a month can help save them.
Stop-A-Tory-Landslide will provide food, water, and dodgy bar chart leaflets to some of the most marginal MPs in the country. Please, dig deep.
https://www.crowdpac.co.uk/campaigns/2320/the-stop-a-tory-landslide-fund
If Labour have resorted to justgiving pages to try and save their numbers, things really are looking grim!
People still go to shops and queue?
How quaint.
I hope in due course that a journalist asks Vince which bits of the Green manifesto he agrees with.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/23/the-guardian-view-on-france-election-a-win-for-macron-and-hope?CMP=twt_gu
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2001#/media/File:UK_General_Election,_2001.svg
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/
actually defines the parties by their positioning on the left/right axis? I reckon there would be big complaints if the media did this in such a blunt way in this country?
Thanks for this, it really is amusing now:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/9259475/Ed-Miliband-plans-a-new-Europe-with-Francois-Hollande.html
In terms of stereotype of being rude, Chinese are different league to French.
All LibDems except Cable, Conservative, Green, Labour, Cable...
I assume the Tories are fine for money. I know the Lib Dems are.
UKIP are screwed, I assume assume Labour are fucked too ?
France is rather like Britain in the Seventies, politically, industrially and racially divided, living on past glories. It does have significant advantages though, including a stronger manufacuring sector and a better balance of payments, as well as twice the land area. It will be resurgent, and with our cop out regain a lot of influence in the EU.
This one has partial results coloured in - Le Pen winning nearly everything in the eastern half of France.
Once a racist, always a racist.
...a restart of the killings in NI would hurt JC and JM badly. There would be no 'floor'.
I have a little wedge on Macron over 25%, but think that he will fall a little short.
If polls are correct, she'll do about 20% better than him in round 2.
When are Sportsbook going to put the Constituencies in alphabetic order? it is all a bit haphazard at present.
I do think the coverage of FN jubilance is overplayed though. Marine was looking good to win the first round comfortably not long ago. But she has more likely scraped through having peaked and edged back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhondda_(Assembly_constituency)
Paris is not like the rest of France.
The French people I met were generally great.
My favorite anecdote was when we holidaying on the Med. Youngest taken quite ill and the dr was great but we had to find a late opening chemist. Struggling to find it in Agde with not long to go before it closed I in desperation knocked on someones front door to ask directions.
Bless the bloke, this place was a bit out of the way and we were struggling with directions, he insisted in getting in his car and getting us to follow him there.
BTW woman on Sky has said she thinks a possibility the order might be wrong and Le Pen may inch into first place.
Only my complete ignorance stopped me diving onto the obviously mis-priced Macron as Iw as worried about not knowing about some non-existent show that was about to drop aka. The Rubio finished 3rd Now He's Odds on Favourite WTF Is Up About Jeb Bush's Price? effect
Man U to qualify for Champions League in two ways. Life is definitely getting better.