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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exit poll says Macron and Le Pen make it into round two.

?? #Presidentielle2017 ? Estimation Ipsos / @SopraSteria_fr à 20h du classement des candidats lors de ce premier tour pic.twitter.com/o6T4qBMGSq

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RobD

First!

kle4

Now just a question of how well Le Pen might manage. Presumably much better than her dad's 17%, so time to improve on that for when Le Pen III has a go. Though having stumbled from topping the first round as long expected, perhaps it won't be as good a runner up as she'd like.

BannedInParis

That's a < I hope.

kle4

NDA almost beat the party of the President!

Sandpit

Macron backable at 1.19 on Betfair, for the Presidency. Get in quick!
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.117179983

MTimT

Damn, yet again my comment disappeared. It was "Who will be the first to tell TSE that this is not an Exit Poll?

Pulpstar

Can someone link to the Guardian French count. I'm on their website but it is absolute mince.

dixiedean

Chapeau. Whatever your opinion of Macron, to win as an independent is some achievement!

Richard_Nabavi

TSE, how long have you been waiting to use that awful pun???

chestnut

For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

SirNorfolkPassmore

As previously noted, it's not correct that "we’ve not had any votes counted yet". Estimates in France are based on precisely that from a sample of polling stations, and NOT on asking people on the way out.

Paristonda

chestnut said:

For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

He has one, En Marche - they will stand candidates but at best likely to force a hung parliament

dixiedean

Pulpstar said:

Can someone link to the Guardian French count. I'm on their website but it is absolute mince.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/23/french-election-voting-under-way-in-first-round-live
Can watch at www.france24.com/en/livefeed

In English

augustus_carp

"Lovin' Fillon"?!?!?! I think an apology is called for.

AndyJS

FPT:

For PfP:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labour-defence/

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

TSE, how long have you been waiting to use that awful pun???

If you think that pun is awful wait until June 8th/9th.

I've come up with the worse pun in history.

nunu

chestnut said:

For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

Parliamentary elections in June- where they will be running new candidates.

SandyRentool

The BBC are stating the Kantar figures 23 23 19 19

Clearly multiple 'exit polls'.

SquareRoot

I was first and my comment has disappeared

Sandpit

FPT: France24 English live coverage:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=1Ydto3Iyzic

RobD

Reposted from the previous thread:

Does anyone have a link to a good results page (with maps, figures etc.)?

Cheers!

Dadge

Sandpit said:

Macron backable at 1.19 on Betfair, for the Presidency. Get in quick!
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.117179983

Down to 1.16 now

Morris_Dancer

Merde.

Well, petite merde. Would've preferred Fillon. What an arse. Refuses to go after I get a nice position on Juppe and Bayrou, then the incompetent weasel can't even knock out Le Pen.

Fillon can filloff.

Mr. Eagles, cooler, six weeks.

dodrade

Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

SouthamObserver

Allez France!!!!!!!!!!

Vive Macron!!!!!!!!!

murali_s

Dadge said:

Sandpit said:

Macron backable at 1.19 on Betfair, for the Presidency. Get in quick!
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.117179983

Down to 1.16 now

Free money still!

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TSE, how long have you been waiting to use that awful pun???

If you think that pun is awful wait until June 8th/9th.

I've come up with the worse pun in history.

Jeremy Corbinned?

nunu

Time for Putin to do his thing.......

OUT

Macron, Macron!
Qu'un sang impur
Abreuve nos sillons!

AlastairMeeks

Bonsoir Francois.

RobD

SquareRoot said:

I was first and my comment has disappeared

There is nothing wrong with vanilla forums....

dixiedean

dodrade said:

Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

He is not a crook, borderline Fascist, or to the Left of Corbyn? Also France has never had a Blairite figure.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Root, I had that the other day. I think it sometimes just happens.

Mr. Dodrade, probably about who he isn't more than who he is.

Sandpit

SquareRoot said:

I was first and my comment has disappeared

For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.

@SquareRoot @MTimT and @foxinsoxuk all claimed firsts!

SandyRentool

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TSE, how long have you been waiting to use that awful pun???

If you think that pun is awful wait until June 8th/9th.

I've come up with the worse pun in history.

Jeremy Corbinned?

May Oui?

AndyJS

RobD said:

SquareRoot said:

I was first and my comment has disappeared

There is nothing wrong with vanilla forums....

They don't work on Safari for starters. I always have to switch to Firefox or Chrome.

Alanbrooke

chestnut said:

For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

Ce sera la bordel, Macron - cest un con.

MTimT

SquareRoot said:

I was first and my comment has disappeared

You can't say that. I was first but my comment has disappeared!

RobD

Sandpit said:

SquareRoot said:

I was first and my comment has disappeared

For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.

The cheque is in the post, TSE.

HYUFD

dodrade said:

Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

Not everywhere, Trudeau is another centrist liberal like Macron and Le Pen has still got a higher total than FN have ever achieved before

alex.

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

TSE, how long have you been waiting to use that awful pun???

If you think that pun is awful wait until June 8th/9th.

I've come up with the worse pun in history.

Jeremy Corbinned?

May Corbyn go Farron these results?

MarqueeMark

dodrade said:

Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

Centrist politicians are slightly less discredited than the world's Leftist or Rightist politicians?

DecrepitJohnL

Too early for aftertiming? Macron at 18/1 and 7/2 with the books. Lost my nerve and greened up on Betfair just before Fillon imploded. Grrr.

SimonStClare

Looks like the French have lost that lovin’ Fillon - ouch!

'Le Pen is mightier the Le Fraud' still tops the charts.

Richard_Nabavi

Sandpit said:

SquareRoot said:

I was first and my comment has disappeared

For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.

Ready for four different awful puns?

CommanderShepard

Sandpit said:

SquareRoot said:

I was first and my comment has disappeared

For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.

Macron is in the mode of Obama, Cameron and Blair. You can project your own wants and ideas on to him and he wont disappoint, until he does.

TheWhiteRabbit

DecrepitJohnL said:

Too early for aftertiming? Macron at 18/1 and 7/2 with the books. Lost my nerve and greened up on Betfair just before Fillon imploded. Grrr.

Nobody who cashes out starves, isn't that the rule?

AndyJS

Anyone have a link to live results page and/or map?

TheWhiteRabbit

AndyJS said:

Anyone have a link to live results page and/or map?

Here's one. No idea on updating though.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election

Morris_Dancer

FPT, Mr. Rich, that may be during to early printing, which was spearheaded by the Dutch. That's why the English 'yott' became 'yacht'.

MTimT

God Gaffney is boring. Needs some lessons on TV presentation skills.

alex.

HYUFD said:

dodrade said:

Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

Not everywhere, Trudeau is another centrist liberal like Macron and Le Pen has still got a higher total than FN have ever achieved before

Also whilst there are some discredited Blairite types, how many examples are there of Blairite types being actually rejected at the polls? And certainly at the point where they have no record in office and remain a blank sheet.

brokenwheel

AndyJS said:

Anyone have a link to live results page and/or map?

This is one, don't know how quickly it will update;

https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/#PR2017

kle4

dodrade said:

Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

Doesn't seem to have obvious downsides, France usually less centrist(?) so he stands out more, and relatively fresh so people are projecting a lot onto him in the face of other unappealing candidates.

If the last one, then he'll have a tough time of it moving forward (after he's won election, obviously)

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

SquareRoot said:

I was first and my comment has disappeared

For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.

@SquareRoot @MTimT and @foxinsoxuk all claimed firsts!

There's an issue with vanilla and wordpress at the moment.

When I publish directly via the website it is fine, when I use the app it causes multiple vanilla forum discussions

surbiton

This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

I want Macron to crush the Racist.

And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

Pulpstar

What was up with that commentator just now "Noone likes Macron wah wah"

SouthamObserver

surbiton said:

This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

I want Macron to crush the Racist.

And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

Je suis avec toi, mon ami!!

AndyJS

One of the exit polls has the two frontrunners neck and neck which makes things slightly more interesting.

another_richard

Betfair Conservative to win Birmingham constituencies:

Northfield 5.9% maj 4/6
Edgbaston 6.6% maj 4/11
Erdington 14.8 maj 5/6

I'd say that Northfield was too long and Erdington too short.

Northfield is significantly more wwc than the other two.

surbiton

SandyRentool said:

The BBC are stating the Kantar figures 23 23 19 19

Clearly multiple 'exit polls'.

As long as the first two are correct, who cares. The Americans should learn from the French how to conduct elections. How to get rid of people with bad smell.

HYUFD

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

dodrade said:

Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

Not everywhere, Trudeau is another centrist liberal like Macron and Le Pen has still got a higher total than FN have ever achieved before

Also whilst there are some discredited Blairite types, how many examples are there of Blairite types being actually rejected at the polls? And certainly at the point where they have no record in office and remain a blank sheet.

PASOK in Greece maybe, Hillary was pretty Blairite

alex.

AndyJS said:

One of the exit polls has the two frontrunners neck and neck which makes things slightly more interesting.

I don't really understand why there would be more than one exit poll (of the 'vote count' variety). Surely the production of such a poll requires the granting of official access to the ballot papers, and if so why would the authorities want more than one of them? Or is it insurance against an outlier?

Andrew

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've come up with the worst pun in history.

*pelts TSE with rotten fruit*

Pulpstar

Laying Le Pen over 30% was the most ridiculous free money all year.

Or that might be laying Corbyn to be next PM.

CommanderShepard

Ge

Andrew said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've come up with the worst pun in history.

*pelts TSE with rotten fruit*

@TSE What George Osborne?

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

Laying Le Pen over 30% was the most ridiculous free money all year.

Or that might be laying Corbyn to be next PM.

Shame I pissed it away on other candidates. Still, no harm done.

MTimT

surbiton said:

SandyRentool said:

The BBC are stating the Kantar figures 23 23 19 19

Clearly multiple 'exit polls'.

As long as the first two are correct, who cares. The Americans should learn from the French how to conduct elections. How to get rid of people with bad smell.

How would the French system have got rid of either Trump or Clinton?

My guess is that the order in the first round would have been Trump, Clinton, Sanders, Cruz ... Unless a bunch of Dems deserted to Kasich, but why would they in Round 1?

DoubleCarpet

Still trying to find a live results map by departement!

Not impressed

AndyJS

brokenwheel said:

AndyJS said:

Anyone have a link to live results page and/or map?

This is one, don't know how quickly it will update;

https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/#PR2017

Thanks.

alex.

HYUFD said:

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

dodrade said:

Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.

Not everywhere, Trudeau is another centrist liberal like Macron and Le Pen has still got a higher total than FN have ever achieved before

Also whilst there are some discredited Blairite types, how many examples are there of Blairite types being actually rejected at the polls? And certainly at the point where they have no record in office and remain a blank sheet.

PASOK in Greece maybe, Hillary was pretty Blairite

I assumed we were discussing "Blair(ite) types", ie. fresh faced young politicians who seem to promise the world and allow the electorate to project their hopes on to them. I don't think Hillary quite qualifies...!

surbiton

La France, encore une fois leader de l'Europe

[ The best google could do ]

All we now need is for Scotland to be in it.

rcs1000

chestnut said:

For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

He has a complete slate of candidates for the Assembly elections. How well they do is another question altogether. My guess is that he'll end up with about a third of the seats, with LR getting 40%, and the Socialists 10-15%. I expect the FN to do quite poorly (3-5) seats.

AndyJS

alex. said:

AndyJS said:

One of the exit polls has the two frontrunners neck and neck which makes things slightly more interesting.

I don't really understand why there would be more than one exit poll (of the 'vote count' variety). Surely the production of such a poll requires the granting of official access to the ballot papers, and if so why would the authorities want more than one of them? Or is it insurance against an outlier?

I agree, it's confusing. As you say only one of them can be based on the actual votes.

DecrepitJohnL

surbiton said:

This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

I want Macron to crush the Racist.

And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

Macron wants job cuts, tax cuts and conscription. He's no Corbynite Francais.

Roger

SouthamObserver said:

surbiton said:

This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

I want Macron to crush the Racist.

And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

Je suis avec toi, mon ami!!

Moi aussi!

ThreeQuidder

surbiton said:

SandyRentool said:

The BBC are stating the Kantar figures 23 23 19 19

Clearly multiple 'exit polls'.

As long as the first two are correct, who cares. The Americans should learn from the French how to conduct elections. How to get rid of people with bad smell.

Yeah, don't have as the only other option someone with the stale smell of decay.

Morris_Dancer

Obviously at your own risk, but if you believe the level-pegging (at the top) poll, you can lay Macron to win round one at 1.13. I did that a bit, just to eliminate any redness.

surbiton

DecrepitJohnL said:

surbiton said:

This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

I want Macron to crush the Racist.

And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

Macron wants job cuts, tax cuts and conscription. He's no Corbynite Francais.

Who is Corbynite here / Are you ?

RobD

surbiton said:

La France, encore une fois leader de l'Europe

[ The best google could do ]

All we now need is for Scotland to be in it.

you are basing that on Macron's victory? Righty-ho.

TheWhiteRabbit

DoubleCarpet said:

Still trying to find a live results map by departement!

Not impressed

I think this will: https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election

Alistair

Pulpstar said:

Laying Le Pen over 30% was the most ridiculous free money all year.

Or that might be laying Corbyn to be next PM.

Only one of those things can be done with a modest bank.

augustus_carp

Inspiring for Corbyn - the two winners in France have, respectively, no MPs and 2 MPs...

peter_from_putney

Based on the latest polling data Martin Baxter forecasts the Tories to have an overall majority of 170 seats as follows:

Party 2015 Votes 2015 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON........ 37.8%.............. 331................. 46.8%.............. 410
LAB......... 31.2% ............ 232 ................ 24.9% ............. 161
LIB Dems 8.1% ............... 8 .................... 11.2% ............. 10

rpjs

alex. said:

AndyJS said:

One of the exit polls has the two frontrunners neck and neck which makes things slightly more interesting.

I don't really understand why there would be more than one exit poll (of the 'vote count' variety). Surely the production of such a poll requires the granting of official access to the ballot papers, and if so why would the authorities want more than one of them? Or is it insurance against an outlier?

From the Guardian article I got the impression that the raw, actual, polling figures are the same, but each pollster has their own proprietary weightings and assumptions to transform the raw figures to a prediction.

The Guardian article says historically these predictions are accurate to within a percentage point or so, but given that the early-closing polling stations that provided the figures are in rural and small town areas, which is Le Pen's best territory, maybe her position is being slightly overstated?

SirNorfolkPassmore

chestnut said:

For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

Firstly, there will be a legislative election in June. Macron will put forward a bloc, and other parties will need to decide how they approach it. Presumably, more than one will take a constructive line - it's silly to go into an election saying "we will block everything that the new President YOU have elected wants to do" (unless you're the hard right or hard left).

Secondly, the French legislature is relatively weak and party system relatively fluid. There have been cohabitations in the past and although it certainly weakens the President, they are not sidelined.

I suspect it will work quite well. The Republicans will go in saying "we'll help Macron reform the economy... put some lead in his pencil". The Socialists will go in saying "we'll help Macron while reining him back on labour market reform". The Greens will go in saying "we'll help Macron and inject environmental conscience etc". The FN and Commies will go in saying "FU, Macron". Macron's bloc will say, "well, if you want a Macron presidency, elect a Macron MP".

rcs1000

With 35% counted, Le Pen is estimated 21.6-22.0%, Macron 23.0-23.8%, Fillon 19.5-20.3%, Melenchon 19.0-19.6%

See: https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election

surbiton

How come so many people vote in France ?

HYUFD

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

chestnut said:

For a French political novice can someone please clarify - Macron is a president with no political party for the parliament?

Sounds like a complete shambles in the making.

Firstly, there will be a legislative election in June. Macron will put forward a bloc, and other parties will need to decide how they approach it. Presumably, more than one will take a constructive line - it's silly to go into an election saying "we will block everything that the new President YOU have elected wants to do" (unless you're the hard right or hard left).

Secondly, the French legislature is relatively weak and party system relatively fluid. There have been cohabitations in the past and although it certainly weakens the President, they are not sidelined.

I suspect it will work quite well. The Republicans will go in saying "we'll help Macron reform the economy... put some lead in his pencil". The Socialists will go in saying "we'll help Macron while reining him back on labour market reform". The Greens will go in saying "we'll help Macron and inject environmental conscience etc". The FN and Commies will go in saying "FU, Macron". Macron's bloc will say, "well, if you want a Macron presidency, elect a Macron MP".

I expect the LR will win the legislative elections

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Putney, if Labour lose over 70 seats (almost exactly Cannae, for those keeping up), then Lib Dems only getting 10, a gain of 2 from last time and 1 from current standings, is not great.

Cheers for those stats, by the way.

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

SquareRoot said:

I was first and my comment has disappeared

For some reason there's *four* versions of this thread on Vanilla site, the other three not attached to the main site.

@SquareRoot @MTimT and @foxinsoxuk all claimed firsts!

There's an issue with vanilla and wordpress at the moment.

When I publish directly via the website it is fine, when I use the app it causes multiple vanilla forum discussions

Yes, looks like an integration bug between the two. Vanilla is seeing the 'create discussion' request multiple times, if it only happens when using Wordpress app then that's probably the source. More likely to see it fixed by logging the bug with Vanilla though, as they're your paid supplier. They can probably do something server side like restrict posting new threads to one a minute.

TheWhiteRabbit

rcs1000 said:

With 35% counted, Le Pen is estimated 21.6-22.0%, Macron 23.0-23.8%, Fillon 19.5-20.3%, Melenchon 19.0-19.6%

See: https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election

where on that page is that estimate?

CarlottaVance

Iain Martin not impressed:

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/856213473998639104

HYUFD

surbiton said:

La France, encore une fois leader de l'Europe

[ The best google could do ]

All we now need is for Scotland to be in it.

What has a Blairite former investment banker being the likely next French President got to do with success for the centre left and nationalist SNP?

bobajobPB

Go on Macron! Atta boy!

SUPREME EFFORT. Looks like the populist right is about to get smashed. Bring on Round Two.

LET'S ALL MOVE TO FRANCE.

Arthur_Penny

SouthamObserver said:

surbiton said:

This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

I want Macron to crush the Racist.

And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

Je suis avec toi, mon ami!!

Pas moi - L' Allemange Merkel elle est fini.Combien sont arrivés en Allemagne sont maintenant en France - avec AK47s. Seulement 20% sont venus de Syrie.

Morris_Dancer

Interestingly, Betfair Sportsbook's odds on the Conservatives for Richmond Park have lengthened a bit, from 5/4 to 6/4. Seems a little counter-intuitive, but there we are.

Alanbrooke

DecrepitJohnL said:

surbiton said:

This is a victory for optimism over pessimism. Over inclusion over exclusion. For Europe and not against Europe.

I want Macron to crush the Racist.

And, as a socialist I want Angela Merkel to win for her brave decisions in 2015. She saved many, many people. Good for her.

Macron wants job cuts, tax cuts and conscription. He's no Corbynite Francais.

lol

meet the CGT

Cyan

Average of five polls (Elabe, Harris, Ifop, Ipsos, Kantar):

Macron 23.64%
Le Pen 22.06%
Fillon 19.66%
Mélenchon 19.52%
Hamon 6.36%
Dupont-Aignan 4.82%

Alanbrooke

bobajobPB said:

Go on Macron! Atta boy!

SUPREME EFFORT. Looks like the populist right is about to get smashed. Bring on Round Two.

LET'S ALL MOVE TO FRANCE.

byeeee