I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
Mr. Chestnut, that's due to early rural voting which favours Le Pen, so the figures are true but don't reflect France as a whole (as others have said, like early UK results which are usually in Labour areas).
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The same people who are so gleeful today were gleeful five years ago when Hollande won - with big predictions that his victory would bring a centre-left resurgence across Europe and, in particular, would be emulated by an EdM led Labour government.
Instead France has shifted rightwards and to the extremes and the French socialists have just suffered a humiliating defeat.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example: https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601
This will be the live results from actual counts. Like saying Labour are ahead after Sunderland declared I guess.
Every time I hope there's not-very-attentive people on both sides who get really over excited/upset by the early slew of Labour results from the north east.
And we pray that they're making bets based on the seat numbers on the TV in front of them!
First real indicator is usually Nuneaton, everything else before about 02:30 is just noise.
Swindon North was first last time at about 12:40am.
I take your spreadsheet's word for that!
I was 3 time zones ahead and possibly half way through forty winks after a bottle of exit poll champagne
I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
I'm a 'supposed rightwinger'?
News to me too Bob :-)
LOL. The anarcho-communist @SeanT will soon cast some light no doubt.
P.S. Thanks for challenging me the other night. Had been a long afternoon with clients –– in the pub.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The same people who are so gleeful today were gleeful five years ago when Hollande won - with big predictions that his victory would bring a centre-left resurgence across Europe and, in particular, would be emulated by an EdM led Labour government.
Instead France has shifted rightwards and to the extremes and the French socialists have just suffered a humiliating defeat.
So the sky caved in and France elected Blair rather than Miliband.You expect us to be mourning? If Le Pen had won you'd be concealing your glee while blaming the hapless Left
I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
As Kermit the frog said, it's not easy being green.
[For F1, I consider my successful tip percentage and ROI, and use that to alter my stakes for next year. I had to suspend that method for 2016, though, because my general tips were bad, but offset by the Verstappen long shot].
I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
I'm a 'supposed rightwinger'?
News to me too Bob :-)
LOL. The anarcho-communist @SeanT will soon cast some light no doubt.
P.S. Thanks for challenging me the other night. Had been a long afternoon with clients –– in the pub.
no probs and I actually owe you an apology. I was wrong about that bloke in Canada. I apologised to Sunil at the time but you had called it a night.
I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
Hmm. Seeing Twitter reports that the French Interior Ministry is reporting Le Pen ahead of Macron. Some replies indicating this is before big cities report. I was bit unsure of posting it, but here's an example: https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/856214386767257601
This will be the live results from actual counts. Like saying Labour are ahead after Sunderland declared I guess.
Every time I hope there's not-very-attentive people on both sides who get really over excited/upset by the early slew of Labour results from the north east.
And we pray that they're making bets based on the seat numbers on the TV in front of them!
First real indicator is usually Nuneaton, everything else before about 02:30 is just noise.
Swindon North was first last time at about 12:40am.
I take your spreadsheet's word for that!
I was 3 time zones ahead and possibly half way through forty winks after a bottle of exit poll champagne
Swindon North was "majority possible", Nuneaton was "majority probable".
I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The same people who are so gleeful today were gleeful five years ago when Hollande won - with big predictions that his victory would bring a centre-left resurgence across Europe and, in particular, would be emulated by an EdM led Labour government.
Instead France has shifted rightwards and to the extremes and the French socialists have just suffered a humiliating defeat.
Hollande got in to much positive mumblings from the left, he began to fail quite quickly so they moved on to Greece....which did the same. Then onto Spain....and now they are back in limbo. Ignoring Venezuela in the limbo of course.
I notice that Le Pen has won a lot of local authorities and not just come 2nd or 3rd in lots of them, consistently. Worrying that France is so divided.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
A busted Flush. After her dad made the second round he went backwards. The European economy is now recovering reasonably well and a rising tide lifts all boats. Macron got elected at the right time, Hollande did not.
I can see a country led by an investment banker being appealing to some of our City types.
I do not know much about French politics but it does seem that Macron is the right choice and hope that there will be stability in France and wish the Country well
May was at least shrewd in that the only French presidential candidate she invited to 10 Downing Street was Macron
It's another HUMILIATION FOR MAY!!!!! or something....
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Referencing an earlier PB thread... the Tories would have won it...
The Tories blew it. Fillon is a goner.
Last time I checked he wasn't a member of the UK Conservative Party
According to Sean I'm a rightwinger so you might be surprised about Fillon.
lol. Fair enough. Apologies. Because of your anonymous posting style and tediously undistinctive commentary, I have probably confused you with someone else equally dull.
To be fair, given he has had 900 different usernames, it is easy done.
The 2015 running totals spreadsheet will be ready in the next few days if anyone's interested.
Nah, no-one round here is in to that sort of thing
I'm particularly interested as I want to see how many seats need to be declared until you get a pretty accurate picture of what is going on. I was thinking of plotting something like Tory seats vs. time (or declaration #).
So how does one judge success. Total profit/loss on an election, % profit compared to exposure, ROI taking into account duration money tied up for?
As a very casual gambler, I count it a success merely if my winnings exceed my losses - this meant despite getting almost everything wrong in 2015 I ended up Green because I had a bet of £20 for every UKIP MP above/under 5 with JohnnyJimmy, which won me £80!
2017 so far has the most individual bets I've ever placed, quite a few constituency bets, so I'd like to get at least half right.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The same people who are so gleeful today were gleeful five years ago when Hollande won - with big predictions that his victory would bring a centre-left resurgence across Europe and, in particular, would be emulated by an EdM led Labour government.
Instead France has shifted rightwards and to the extremes and the French socialists have just suffered a humiliating defeat.
So the sky caved in and France elected Blair rather than Miliband.You expect us to be mourning? If Le Pen had won you'd be concealing your glee while blaming the hapless Left
I'm just injecting a note of, obviously inconvenient, realism by pointing out what some people were saying five years ago.
I've made a very nice profit (thanks to RCS for the Macron tip) already and expect to make even more soon. That's the only stake I have in the French election.
But I will watch with interest what happens in France as Macron emulates Hollande in disappointing his PB fans.
The 2015 running totals spreadsheet will be ready in the next few days if anyone's interested.
Nah, no-one round here is in to that sort of thing
I'm particularly interested as I want to see how many seats need to be declared until you get a pretty accurate picture of what is going on. I was thinking of plotting something like Tory seats vs. time (or declaration #).
It used to be about 20-30 seats but these days you need considerably more.
My spreadsheet doesn't show it (yet), but with its massive leave vote and WWC demographic I wonder if Ed Miliband might be THE casualty of the election night.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The same people who are so gleeful today were gleeful five years ago when Hollande won - with big predictions that his victory would bring a centre-left resurgence across Europe and, in particular, would be emulated by an EdM led Labour government.
Instead France has shifted rightwards and to the extremes and the French socialists have just suffered a humiliating defeat.
I'm very happy about Macron today, and I wasn't 'gleeful' when Hollande won five years ago. Nor did I think that it was going to lead to a centre-left resurgence. Bobajob, Southam, Fox etc are pretty moderate in their views - way more moderate than Hollande is. Much more comfortable with the third way/centrist kind of politics than Hollande style socialism.
Marine Le Pen now speaking and promises a contrast between the establishment and the failures of Hollande's 5 years and says her responsibility to free French people as their candidate and appeals to all French patriots to join her regardless of how they voted in the first round and to put the country first and ensure the survival of France. She closes Long Live the Republic, Long Live France to cheers of 'Marine President!' and La Marseilles from her supporters
Ha. There's a market for that if all those nazisploitation movies are anything to go by. She is attractive though, though I dock myself feminist points for commenting on such a thing with a politician.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The same people who are so gleeful today were gleeful five years ago when Hollande won - with big predictions that his victory would bring a centre-left resurgence across Europe and, in particular, would be emulated by an EdM led Labour government.
Instead France has shifted rightwards and to the extremes and the French socialists have just suffered a humiliating defeat.
So the sky caved in and France elected Blair rather than Miliband.You expect us to be mourning? If Le Pen had won you'd be concealing your glee while blaming the hapless Left
I'm just injecting a note of, obviously inconvenient, realism by pointing out what some people were saying five years ago.
I've made a very nice profit (thanks to RCS for the Macron tip) already and expect to make even more soon. That's the only stake I have in the French election.
But I will watch with interest what happens in France as Macron emulates Hollande in disappointing his PB fans.
All politicians disappoint in the end, but five years is a long time. Macron will rule while we Brexit. That is good.
F1: it hasn't got going yet, but Betfair now has a market for title winner without Hamilton or Vettel.
Clever idea, as there are perhaps four contenders for it (Red Bull chaps and the team mates of the top two). Hadn't intended to check, I just clicked the wrong thing
Marine Le Pen now speaking and promises a contrast between the establishment and the failures of Hollande's 5 years and says her responsibility to free French people as their candidate and appeals to all French patriots to join her regardless of how they voted in the first round and to put the country first and ensure the survival of France. She closes Long Live the Republic, Long Live France to cheers of 'Marine President!' and La Marseilles from her supporters
Marine Le Pen now speaking and promises a contrast between the establishment and the failures of Hollande's 5 years and says her responsibility to free French people as their candidate and appeals to all French patriots to join her regardless of how they voted in the first round and to put the country first and ensure the survival of France. She closes Long Live the Republic, Long Live France to cheers of 'Marine President!' and La Marseilles from her supporters
My spreadsheet doesn't show it (yet), but with its massive leave vote and WWC demographic I wonder if Ed Miliband might be THE casualty of the election night.
I think similar estimates were made last time and someone [ I think it was Southam ] challenged someone that he would still get above 50%.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
A busted Flush. After her dad made the second round he went backwards.
Yeah, but then she took them further. Could MMLP do the same? I'd heard she was more in the mould of her grandfather, not her aunt.
F1: it hasn't got going yet, but Betfair now has a market for title winner without Hamilton or Vettel.
Clever idea, as there are perhaps four contenders for it (Red Bull chaps and the team mates of the top two). Hadn't intended to check, I just clicked the wrong thing
That sounds like a fun one to play over the season. Without looking, Bottas probably the favourite and Max V probably the value.
Marine Le Pen now speaking and promises a contrast between the establishment and the failures of Hollande's 5 years and says her responsibility to free French people as their candidate and appeals to all French patriots to join her regardless of how they voted in the first round and to put the country first and ensure the survival of France. She closes Long Live the Republic, Long Live France to cheers of 'Marine President!' and La Marseilles from her supporters
You sound like an enthusiastic supporter !
That was literally what she said (and no if I was French I would probably vote for Macron with reservations having voted for Fillon in round 1)
My spreadsheet doesn't show it (yet), but with its massive leave vote and WWC demographic I wonder if Ed Miliband might be THE casualty of the election night.
It would take quite something for the Tories to come from third, but that would be sensational.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
A busted Flush. After her dad made the second round he went backwards.
Yeah, but then she took them further. Could MMLP do the same? I'd heard she was more in the mould of her grandfather, not her aunt.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She has done m
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
A busted Flush. After her dad made the second round he went backwards.
Yeah, but then she took them further. Could MMLP do the same? I'd heard she was more in the mould of her grandfather, not her aunt.
You are talking about her niece, right ?
Yes- I was thinking in the event Marine cannot take them further, and is deposed at some point by yet another Le Pen.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She has done much better than her father, largely by ditching the antisemitism (or hiding it away), and pretending not to be a member of the FN. She's moved to a very populist economic message, and away from the nationalist Christian conservative heritage of her party.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
A busted Flush. After her dad made the second round he went backwards.
Yeah, but then she took them further. Could MMLP do the same? I'd heard she was more in the mould of her grandfather, not her aunt.
We will cross that Bridge in 15 years. I can wait.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The same people who are so gleeful today were gleeful five years ago when Hollande won - with big predictions that his victory would bring a centre-left resurgence across Europe and, in particular, would be emulated by an EdM led Labour government.
Instead France has shifted rightwards and to the extremes and the French socialists have just suffered a humiliating defeat.
I'm very happy about Macron today, and I wasn't 'gleeful' when Hollande won five years ago. Nor did I think that it was going to lead to a centre-left resurgence. Bobajob, Southam, Fox etc are pretty moderate in their views - way more moderate than Hollande is. Much more comfortable with the third way/centrist kind of politics than Hollande style socialism.
So the choice is now between centrists and the right with the mainstream left effectively defunct.
Now who does that scenario suit - people on the right or people on the left ?
And it really isn't what the PB lefties of five years ago were expecting, let alone hoping for.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
The same people who are so gleeful today were gleeful five years ago when Hollande won - with big predictions that his victory would bring a centre-left resurgence across Europe and, in particular, would be emulated by an EdM led Labour government.
Instead France has shifted rightwards and to the extremes and the French socialists have just suffered a humiliating defeat.
Ed Miliband plans a new Europe with François Hollande Ed Miliband has agreed to work with the new Socialist President of France to “tilt” Europe away from austerity.
It would be nice to compare the actual results to those expected by the exit poll to check how accurate it is. Oh well. It won't take long to count the votes.
Can someone explain Macron's apppeal? Seems bizarre France would now suddenly go for a Blair type figure given how discredited centrist politicans are elsewhere in the world.
Er, he got maybe a quarter of the vote at most, and edged out a hard right candidate by about 1 point (maybe). He might even be second behind Le Pen (we don't know yet)
In truth, the French haven't gone for ANYONE. They've voted all over the place in a kind of flailing despair, from communist to anarchist.
The polls have been pretty accurate in France so far, and they predict a 2:1 win for Macron in round two. That may change, but tonight is a great night for Macron, and an OK night for Le Pen. Remember, just two weeks ago there wasn't a single poll that didn't have Le Pen in front.
But Macron will only win because he's facing the still-tainted Le Pen.
He got 24%, at best. It's not some crowning endorsement or stunning triumph.
The French are confused, conflicted and unhappy, and this is reflected in the wild spread of votes.
That said I hear Macron is a mild Anglophile, and pro-business, so he might be OK for Brexit.
Macron will slaughter Le Pen in the second round.
He is less radical than Fillon in his planned economic reforms, but is inclined in the right direction, and much more likely to bring a majority of tbe country with him.
The assembly is likely to be pro reform, with quite a Republican and centrist majority.
Even now Le Pen is polling 35-40% in the runoff against Macron, Chirac slaughtered Jean Marie Le Pen, Macron may comfortably beat Marine Le Pen but he will not slaughter her
She has done m
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
A busted Flush. After her dad made the second round he went backwards.
Yeah, but then she took them further. Could MMLP do the same? I'd heard she was more in the mould of her grandfather, not her aunt.
You are talking about her niece, right ?
Yes- I was thinking in the event Marine cannot take them further, and is deposed at some point by yet another Le Pen.
Comments
I think you might find France a tad different than you believe it to be though.
Maybe in 2023 or so, we will have a resurgent centre left, led by new faces but supported by Blair, Miliband, etc
Instead France has shifted rightwards and to the extremes and the French socialists have just suffered a humiliating defeat.
I was 3 time zones ahead and possibly half way through forty winks after a bottle of exit poll champagne
You have to click on the departments to see.
depressed region
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.129013026
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2017/apr/23/french-presidential-election-results-2017-latest
works quite well for larger areas.
P.S. Thanks for challenging me the other night. Had been a long afternoon with clients –– in the pub.
She may go forward in the next four years, she may go back. I think it largely depends on whether Macron is able to push through the reforms that France needs. (And it also depends on MLP not being deposed by MMLP.)
If Le Pen had won you'd be concealing your glee while blaming the hapless Left
https://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/resultats/martinique-972/le-marin-97217/
https://twitter.com/marion_m_le_pen/status/856095600269561856
As Kermit the frog said, it's not easy being green.
[For F1, I consider my successful tip percentage and ROI, and use that to alter my stakes for next year. I had to suspend that method for 2016, though, because my general tips were bad, but offset by the Verstappen long shot].
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyC5hS6Og3U
Rural areas or not, surely worrying for centre ground France? These people aren't going away...
Hollande is leading the pack with 28.4% of the vote with Sarkozy on 25.5%.
Result 28.63%
27.18%
I can see a country led by an investment banker being appealing to some of our City types.
2017 so far has the most individual bets I've ever placed, quite a few constituency bets, so I'd like to get at least half right.
French polls seem pretty accurate, every reason for the second round ones to also be accurate.
I've made a very nice profit (thanks to RCS for the Macron tip) already and expect to make even more soon. That's the only stake I have in the French election.
But I will watch with interest what happens in France as Macron emulates Hollande in disappointing his PB fans.
Clever idea, as there are perhaps four contenders for it (Red Bull chaps and the team mates of the top two). Hadn't intended to check, I just clicked the wrong thing
This map really rocks - click into a department to see commune results even if dep not yet declared.
Awesome.
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/
What is not to like ?
http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/EvilIsSexy
Now who does that scenario suit - people on the right or people on the left ?
And it really isn't what the PB lefties of five years ago were expecting, let alone hoping for.
The only potential upset would be if Raikkonen finds his feet. He was a bit rubbish early last year, then improved significantly.
The development race will be critical.
Ed Miliband has agreed to work with the new Socialist President of France to “tilt” Europe away from austerity.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/9259475/Ed-Miliband-plans-a-new-Europe-with-Francois-Hollande.html
How did that work out?
French Fascists Presidential candidate into run off (she'll lose)
UKIP main raison d'etre100% successful