This one has partial results coloured in - Le Pen winning nearly everything in the eastern half of France.
Most of the departments are only partially declared (faint colour) mostly waiting on urban communes to declare). Several should change colour (probably from Le Prn to Macron's)) when fully declared. Currently just one department (Vosges) is fully declared in block colour.
What was the basis for thinking that Plaid would be a particular threat, even with their leader? The big movement in Wales is due to Brexit, which shouldn't switch votes between Labour and PC.
A little grumble:
When are Sportsbook going to put the Constituencies in alphabetic order? it is all a bit haphazard at present.
They also only seem to have 11 constituencies listed for Wales.
Any idea how things will shake down in NI this time around? Nationalists to regain Fermanagh and South Tyrone? Unionist pacts to help gain another seat?
Too fluid, its likely a unionist pact, possibly an expanded one, but there is also rumour of a 'pro remain' set of agreements on the nationalist side in certain areas.
They call it that because Nationalist parties will go to their deaths claiming they are not sectarian.
Totally off topic but why is Maguire s unfancied for the snooker world championship. He's dropped 5 frames in two matches seems to have a good draw and always had the talent.
What was the basis for thinking that Plaid would be a particular threat, even with their leader? The big movement in Wales is due to Brexit, which shouldn't switch votes between Labour and PC.
This Aussie anchorwoman is rubbish - it's clear the Les Republicans guy is struggling with his English (he is giving it a very good shot) and she just keeps interrupting him before he can get his words out. I'm interested in what the guy has to say.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
I thought Boba was a committed lefty ?
He's a French Lefty - in theory, but not in practice.....you should have heard him go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and when someone (himself) on well over average income had their child benefit taken away.....
Child benefit should be an universal benefit.
Says the expatriate rentier......
I think you are muddling him up with @tyson. I believe @surbiton runs a small engineering company (machine parts?) in Surrey
Thanks, Charles ! I had not read the earlier post. More than 99% of my income is paid through PAYE. I could not even tell you how much interest I earn on my deposits these days. Maybe a couple of hundred quid. Probably not even that. Where the "rentier" came from, I am a bit puzzled.
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
I have had some great times in France, I had a place in rural Normandy and I spoke enough French to get by, my wife was very fluent.
Paris is not like the rest of France.
The French people I met were generally great.
My favorite anecdote was when we holidaying on the Med. Youngest taken quite ill and the dr was great but we had to find a late opening chemist. Struggling to find it in Agde with not long to go before it closed I in desperation knocked on someones front door to ask directions.
Bless the bloke, this place was a bit out of the way and we were struggling with directions, he insisted in getting in his car and getting us to follow him there.
BTW woman on Sky has said she thinks a possibility the order might be wrong and Le Pen may inch into first place.
I was staying in rural France (New Caledonia) once, about an hours walk from the nearest bus stop back to Noumea airport. The Gite owner turned up in his battered Renault to give me a lift at 0600, for free.
Mind you the bus to the airport was quite something. Everyone other than Me and my companion was Kanak and drunk to the point of not being able to sit straight. It was a bit hostile until tbe Kanaks realised we were not French, when the mood lightened a lot. The rebellion was not long finished.
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 home departements and 5 overseas in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 6 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
Parisian waiters are certainly rude. I assume its much better outside the capital.
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Wait until the final results. Even in departments, rural votes are counted first.
The French centre-right just fucked this up. They should have walked it. Tsk.
Chortle.
Why are you chortling? Fillon (sans scandals) would have been best for France, economically, and therefore best for the French people. And he might have won the Assembly, he could have pressed through real reform.
I fear Macron will be a grave disappointment, and he doesn't even have a proper party, implying paralysis and further stagnation. As a supposed rightwinger, your delight is therefore a bit mystifying.
I thought Boba was a committed lefty ?
He's a French Lefty - in theory, but not in practice.....you should have heard him go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and when someone (himself) on well over average income had their child benefit taken away.....
Child benefit should be an universal benefit.
Says the expatriate rentier......
I think you are muddling him up with @tyson. I believe @surbiton runs a small engineering company (machine parts?) in Surrey
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
I have had some great times in France, I had a place in rural Normandy and I spoke enough French to get by, my wife was very fluent.
Paris is not like the rest of France.
The French people I met were generally great.
My favorite anecdote was when we holidaying on the Med. Youngest taken quite ill and the dr was great but we had to find a late opening chemist. Struggling to find it in Agde with not long to go before it closed I in desperation knocked on someones front door to ask directions.
Bless the bloke, this place was a bit out of the way and we were struggling with directions, he insisted in getting in his car and getting us to follow him there.
BTW woman on Sky has said she thinks a possibility the order might be wrong and Le Pen may inch into first place.
In my experience the French as a people have become nicer, as their influence in the world has declined (especially the language). I am pretty sure the two phenomena are linked.
Last year in Lille was my first significant time in France outside of the Dardogne for 20 years. I was stunned at the difference. Previously, no-one in the hospitality industry would have been young, spoken English, or sound educated. Everywhere I went, not only were they all three, but pleasant too.
That said, I have always found the French very nice outside of Paris. As a young 20-something traveling on my own and staying in small hotels, wherever I stayed, the owners invariably treated me as family.
The only negatives about recent developments in France for me is that the food is sadly not up to its old standards, and particular, the bread.
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 home departements and 5 overseas in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Careful. Some of those departements could change colour as larger towns now come in, after rural villages.
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
I have had some great times in France, I had a place in rural Normandy and I spoke enough French to get by, my wife was very fluent.
Paris is not like the rest of France.
The French people I met were generally great.
My favorite anecdote was when we holidaying on the Med. Youngest taken quite ill and the dr was great but we had to find a late opening chemist. Struggling to find it in Agde with not long to go before it closed I in desperation knocked on someones front door to ask directions.
Bless the bloke, this place was a bit out of the way and we were struggling with directions, he insisted in getting in his car and getting us to follow him there.
BTW woman on Sky has said she thinks a possibility the order might be wrong and Le Pen may inch into first place.
In my experience the French as a people have become nicer, as their influence in the world has declined (especially the language). I am pretty sure the two phenomena are linked.
Mind you I have walked out of a restaurant on the Med because of an arrogant and rude waiter who decided tourists were beneath him and he would rather ignore than serve:-)
His employers loss, not mine.
But generally people are fine in most countries I have visited.
I have had a couple of scary times in a couple of French inner cities though.
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Wait until the final results. Even in departments, rural votes are counted first.
Over half the votes are in now and Le Pen is even leading in the only departement in the Parisian Ile de France region reporting so far
Good news Pulpstar, not one bit of black in Ile de France so far...
There don't seem to have been any developments in the map for the whited out areas for a while. I do see changes in the count numbers in the shaded areas. What's up with the white bits?
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Wait until the final results. Even in departments, rural votes are counted first.
Over half the votes are in now and Le Pen is even leading in the only departement in the Parisian Ile de France region reporting so far
what odds would you take on Le Pen to win the Parisian region?
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Wait until the final results. Even in departments, rural votes are counted first.
Over half the votes are in now and Le Pen is even leading in the only departement in the Parisian Ile de France region reporting so far
The projected shares of the vote are still comfortably for Macron. I think they know what they're doing.
This one has partial results coloured in - Le Pen winning nearly everything in the eastern half of France.
Most of the departments are only partially declared (faint colour) mostly waiting on urban communes to declare). Several should change colour (probably from Le Prn to Macron's)) when fully declared. Currently just one department (Vosges) is fully declared in block colour.
Cantal, also
True. And some of the islands, including Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon that I havenever heard of. 4000 voters elected Melenchon.
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Wait until the final results. Even in departments, rural votes are counted first.
Over half the votes are in now and Le Pen is even leading in the only departement in the Parisian Ile de France region reporting so far
what odds would you take on Le Pen to win the Parisian region?
She won't win the Parisian region, central Paris will see to that but she will win 1 or 2 of the outer suburbs
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 home departements and 5 overseas in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Careful. Some of those departements could change colour as larger towns now come in, after rural villages.
A little perhaps but there are not that many big cities in France and she seems to be doing OK in outlying Paris suburbs
Is it yet possible that Labour could split before the election? Could Trident be the issue that does it? Labour leader campaigning against the party's own policy manifesto?
Good news Pulpstar, not one bit of black in Ile de France so far...
There don't seem to have been any developments in the map for the whited out areas for a while. I do see changes in the count numbers in the shaded areas. What's up with the white bits?
"Waiting for results".
Maybe they want to get to a certain minimum before showing?
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 home departements and 5 overseas in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 6 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Wait until the final results. Even in departments, rural votes are counted first.
Over half the votes are in now and Le Pen is even leading in the only departement in the Parisian Ile de France region reporting so far
The projected shares of the vote are still comfortably for Macron. I think they know what they're doing.
The Projections are, but the actual votes counted tell a different story - Le Pen on 25% and Macron on 22% (both rounded). And Le Pen is ahead in over half of the Departments. Are we watching yet another Polling/Sampling fiasco?
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Wait until the final results. Even in departments, rural votes are counted first.
Over half the votes are in now and Le Pen is even leading in the only departement in the Parisian Ile de France region reporting so far
The projected shares of the vote are still comfortably for Macron. I think they know what they're doing.
The Projections are, but the actual votes counted tell a different story - Le Pen on 25% and Macron on 22% (both rounded). And Le Pen is ahead in over half of the Departments. Are we watching yet another Polling/Sampling fiasco?
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 home departements and 5 overseas in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Careful. Some of those departements could change colour as larger towns now come in, after rural villages.
A little perhaps but there are not that many big cities in France and she seems to be doing OK in outlying Paris suburbs
HYUFD is desperate that Le Pen wins the first round. She will loooooooooooooose and will receive an almight shellacking in the second round.
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
I have a property in France and work there often. The rudeness and arrogance are real but to me charming and it doesn't affect their likability at all. it's just that they have taste and confidence in their own abilities.
I remember Mitterand being interviewed on TV and the interviewer said that 'the polls show only 15% still have condfidence in you. What have you got to say?"
He replied that as he had another 4 years as President that's their problem not his.
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Wait until the final results. Even in departments, rural votes are counted first.
Over half the votes are in now and Le Pen is even leading in the only departement in the Parisian Ile de France region reporting so far
The projected shares of the vote are still comfortably for Macron. I think they know what they're doing.
The Projections are, but the actual votes counted tell a different story - Le Pen on 25% and Macron on 22% (both rounded). And Le Pen is ahead in over half of the Departments. Are we watching yet another Polling/Sampling fiasco?
The Aussie presenter just explained it. Big cities yet to be counted.
Has anyone read "French Rhapsody "by Antoine Laurain, which was published last year?If so, do you see any resemblance between its central character JBM, who becomes President,and Macron? Both are young, photogenic and have vague centralist policies and are seen as political outsiders.
actually defines the parties by their positioning on the left/right axis? I reckon there would be big complaints if the media did this in such a blunt way in this country?
I remember a panel of talking heads on BBC Breakfast or BBC News 24 a few years ago which listed one participant as Far Right Conservative.
After the broadcast ended the studio presenter turned to the camera and said "I apologise for the caption. It was a reference to where the candidate was standing on the platform".
Is it yet possible that Labour could split before the election? Could Trident be the issue that does it? Labour leader campaigning against the party's own policy manifesto?
It would certainly be the best outcome, there really is no point the PLP fighting on a Corbyn ticket - for one, nobody will believe them!
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 home departements and 5 overseas in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Careful. Some of those departements could change colour as larger towns now come in, after rural villages.
A little perhaps but there are not that many big cities in France and she seems to be doing OK in outlying Paris suburbs
HYUFD is desperate that Le Pen wins the first round. She will loooooooooooooose and will receive an almight shellacking in the second round.
I am just reporting the actual results, as I said I would have voted for Fillon not Le Pen
From 37.59m voters (78.14%): Macron 23.41%, Le Pen 22.6%, Fillon 19.86%, Melenchon 18.85% - French Interior Min at 11:01pm #France2017 (their own website is behind!)
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
I have a property in France and work there often. The rudeness and arrogance are real but to me charming and it doesn't affect their likability at all. it's just that they have taste and confidence in their own abilities.
I remember Mitterand being interviewed on TV and the interviewer said that 'the polls show only 15% still have condfidence in you. What have you got to say?"
He replied that as he had another 4 years as President that's their problem not his.
Last year in Lille was my first significant time in France outside of the Dardogne for 20 years. I was stunned at the difference. Previously, no-one in the hospitality industry would have been young, spoken English, or sound educated. Everywhere I went, not only were they all three, but pleasant too.
That said, I have always found the French very nice outside of Paris. As a young 20-something traveling on my own and staying in small hotels, wherever I stayed, the owners invariably treated me as family.
The only negatives about recent developments in France for me is that the food is sadly not up to its old standards, and particular, the bread.
The most-sold brand of bread in France is apparently Hovis, though that may be because bread is typically not branded (Hovis is bought in bulk by hospitals, schools etc.).
Like others, I've always found the French pleasant too. I think there's an element of myth in the famous Gallic rudeness, like Scottish tightness or German humourlessness. It's never seemed to me that Western Europeans vary that much at a national level- each country has the same types though in different proportions.
Is it yet possible that Labour could split before the election? Could Trident be the issue that does it? Labour leader campaigning against the party's own policy manifesto?
It would certainly be the best outcome, there really is no point the PLP fighting on a Corbyn ticket - for one, nobody will believe them!
United, Labour could win up to 150 seats though.
If Labour splits then you're looking at a 31 scenario.
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Wait until the final results. Even in departments, rural votes are counted first.
Over half the votes are in now and Le Pen is even leading in the only departement in the Parisian Ile de France region reporting so far
The projected shares of the vote are still comfortably for Macron. I think they know what they're doing.
The Projections are, but the actual votes counted tell a different story - Le Pen on 25% and Macron on 22% (both rounded). And Le Pen is ahead in over half of the Departments. Are we watching yet another Polling/Sampling fiasco?
Sampling fiascos might happen on the initial exit poll. They don't happen when validated by over half the vote.
So I google 'Macron gay sub relationship rumours' and got only articles dated either 7 or 8 February 2017. Was this a 24-hour story? If so, I presume it has no validity and hence holds no dangers for Macron.
Given that the French (rightly) largely consider sex a private matter – who gives a fuck?
They don't give a shit. Really. They haven't had a leader not involved in sonme sexual imbroglio as long as anyone can remember and they are completely indifferent. Another reason why I love the French however rude and arrogant they might appear.
I have enjoyed many brilliant holidays in France (not Paris) and don't recognise this "rude and arrogant" stereotype. I speak a bit of French and have always found them a warm people. I suspect the myth is a consequence of red faced English people shouting at them in English.
I have a property in France and work there often. The rudeness and arrogance are real but to me charming and it doesn't affect their likability at all. it's just that they have taste and confidence in their own abilities.
I remember Mitterand being interviewed on TV and the interviewer said that 'the polls show only 15% still have condfidence in you. What have you got to say?"
He replied that as he had another 4 years as President that's their problem not his.
Mitterrand was supposedly asked by a journalist if he could call him "tu", to which Mitterrand replied "si vous voulez". Which was wonderfully acid.
I now make it Le Pen ahead in 52 departements, given there are only 96 home departements and 5 overseas in total that means she has won a majority of departements in France in the 1st round whichever way the popular vote turns out. Macron has 19, Fillon 9, Melenchon 4 http://www.lci.fr/direct/
Careful. Some of those departements could change colour as larger towns now come in, after rural villages.
A little perhaps but there are not that many big cities in France and she seems to be doing OK in outlying Paris suburbs
HYUFD is desperate that Le Pen wins the first round. She will loooooooooooooose and will receive an almight shellacking in the second round.
She will lose but you cannot dismiss her support which will give her continued influence in French politics. I do not support her or Nigel Farage and UKIP in any way but just this is a statement of the obvious
Can currently cash out for 3/4 of my potential winning on Macron first round winner. Any reason I should do that?
I think it safe, but I have just layed off a bit so as to go all green.
Sod it, zero'd out the field so a free bet on Macron.
Yep, Plenty of stake money coming in, though I have £500 more coming after the second round.
I have a little wedge on Macron over 25%, but think that he will fall a little short.
I bet an order of magnitude less money than you as I knew the square root of FA about France and it's politics, but I got on the Melenchon train @37 and left @11 because I can read a poll.
Only my complete ignorance stopped me diving onto the obviously mis-priced Macron as Iw as worried about not knowing about some non-existent show that was about to drop aka. The Rubio finished 3rd Now He's Odds on Favourite WTF Is Up About Jeb Bush's Price? effect
I think this my best election ever. Hat tip @Chrisin paris, who tipped Macron and Fillon eearly on, so I got on at good odds. Perhaps I am too cautious as I layed off a bit to go all green in January.
It's very interesting that the YouGov Brexit right/wrong poll is level pegging despite the massive approvals for May and signs of a landslide on the way.
It emphasises that the Brexit vote was driven as much by discontent with the style of domestic politics than by anyone's views of the EU.
The utter rejection of Corbyn's brand of post-imperial cringe politics will be another step on the road to us coming to terms with the reality of being a normal, mainstream European country that belongs in the political structures of normal, mainstream Europe.
Yep, just not in the EU :-)
We willbe back in, but not for a while.
I very much doubt we will ever rejoin the EU (especially as it is very likely to Federalise with us out, and to make the euro work)
But cheer up, there is a pretty good chance we will rejoin the Single Market and EEA/EFTA, and probably quite soon (for reasons I explain downthread). A future centre left party will put it in their manifesto, and they will, eventually, win.
I expect a move into the EEA as a gateway to rejoining, but not for a while. We will have to wait for the Tory Europhiles to be ascendant again.
That is almost certain never to happen.
The original Tory Europhiles were a coalition of three types (note - these are not mutually exclusive):
1. Those scarred by the personal experience of war who believed the EEC to be an essential component to delivering and maintaining peace in Europe and that Britain's involvement was therefore necessary given the huge national interest at stake.
2. Those who believed that following the end of empire, Britain could lead in Europe and hence, via the EEC, enhance its global role.
3. Those who saw the EEC as a useful means of increasing trade, wealth and economic stability.
Of those, the first, to the extent that it was ever true, is mission accomplished. The second was viable up until Maastricht. Britain did lead in the completion of the Single Market but could not play any similar role outside the Euro after 1993. And while the third remains the core of the Tory Remain case, it's much weaker than it once was due to the scale of associated EU legislation. Unless there is an immense change in Britain's national position or in the nature of the EU, there will be no strong pro-EU Conservative case.
If Le Pen ends up with 21.5%, is it significantly different from what her father scored in the first round ? For all the media management, the votes have not changed much.
Once a racist, always a racist.
But he stood 15 years ago
Which means that sadly she is refilling the pot of supporters at least as fast as the grim reaper empties it.
Can currently cash out for 3/4 of my potential winning on Macron first round winner. Any reason I should do that?
I think it safe, but I have just layed off a bit so as to go all green.
Sod it, zero'd out the field so a free bet on Macron.
Yep, Plenty of stake money coming in, though I have £500 more coming after the second round.
I have a little wedge on Macron over 25%, but think that he will fall a little short.
I bet an order of magnitude less money than you as I knew the square root of FA about France and it's politics, but I got on the Melenchon train @37 and left @11 because I can read a poll.
Only my complete ignorance stopped me diving onto the obviously mis-priced Macron as Iw as worried about not knowing about some non-existent show that was about to drop aka. The Rubio finished 3rd Now He's Odds on Favourite WTF Is Up About Jeb Bush's Price? effect
I think this my best election ever. Hat tip @Chrisin paris, who tipped Macron and Fillon eearly on, so I got on at good odds. Perhaps I am too cautious as I layed off a bit to go all green in January.
Yep, anyone who has kept up with the ebbs and flows of advice on PB would be green on this one by now. Thanks everyone.
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Whatever the rest of the result is, I'm still staggered that the candidate from the same party as the incumbent president is getting less than 6% of the vote.
Daily Mail framing 2nd round as a FR version of Brexit vote.
Lol Landslide for remain.
Also, LePen has been rowing back on her anti EU rhetoric recently, realising that it is a vote loser even with her own supporters. FN support is not all pro Frexit.
Comments
https://www.thelocal.fr/20170423/interactive-map-of-the-2017-french-presidential-election
Doublethink.
They call it that because Nationalist parties will go to their deaths claiming they are not sectarian.
Mind you the bus to the airport was quite something. Everyone other than Me and my companion was Kanak and drunk to the point of not being able to sit straight. It was a bit hostile until tbe Kanaks realised we were not French, when the mood lightened a lot. The rebellion was not long finished.
http://www.lci.fr/direct/
That said, I have always found the French very nice outside of Paris. As a young 20-something traveling on my own and staying in small hotels, wherever I stayed, the owners invariably treated me as family.
The only negatives about recent developments in France for me is that the food is sadly not up to its old standards, and particular, the bread.
Wintry weather to hit the UK in the next week.
Does 500+ have a seat band yet ?
His employers loss, not mine.
But generally people are fine in most countries I have visited.
I have had a couple of scary times in a couple of French inner cities though.
There don't seem to have been any developments in the map for the whited out areas for a while. I do see changes in the count numbers in the shaded areas. What's up with the white bits?
http://presidentielle.lepoint.fr/?p=compare
Le Pen 24.11%
Macron 22.42%
Fillon 19.62%
Mélenchon 18.39%
Hamon 5.83%
Dupont-Aignan 5.20%
"Waiting for results".
Maybe they want to get to a certain minimum before showing?
I am on Macron @1.28 1st round (now 1.05)
Macron 23.12%,
Le Pen 23.06%
I remember Mitterand being interviewed on TV and the interviewer said that 'the polls show only 15% still have condfidence in you. What have you got to say?"
He replied that as he had another 4 years as President that's their problem not his.
After the broadcast ended the studio presenter turned to the camera and said "I apologise for the caption. It was a reference to where the candidate was standing on the platform".
The damage, of course, was done by then.
http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html
http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html
4 blobs fully declared for Le Pen now.
Like others, I've always found the French pleasant too. I think there's an element of myth in the famous Gallic rudeness, like Scottish tightness or German humourlessness. It's never seemed to me that Western Europeans vary that much at a national level- each country has the same types though in different proportions.
If Labour splits then you're looking at a 31 scenario.
44 departments counted.
they're fully declared rather than merely leading
Last Survation poll prior to 2015 General election had 10/10 Certain to vote at 73.9% - actual was 71.1%.
The latest Survation has 10/10 at 71.2% With a 2 percent point drop in 2014 Yes voters being 10/10
9 polls, average:
Con 45.67%
Lab 25.78%
LD 10.67%
UKIP 8.44%
Green 3.33%
Tory lead: 19.89%
http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html
The original Tory Europhiles were a coalition of three types (note - these are not mutually exclusive):
1. Those scarred by the personal experience of war who believed the EEC to be an essential component to delivering and maintaining peace in Europe and that Britain's involvement was therefore necessary given the huge national interest at stake.
2. Those who believed that following the end of empire, Britain could lead in Europe and hence, via the EEC, enhance its global role.
3. Those who saw the EEC as a useful means of increasing trade, wealth and economic stability.
Of those, the first, to the extent that it was ever true, is mission accomplished. The second was viable up until Maastricht. Britain did lead in the completion of the Single Market but could not play any similar role outside the Euro after 1993. And while the third remains the core of the Tory Remain case, it's much weaker than it once was due to the scale of associated EU legislation. Unless there is an immense change in Britain's national position or in the nature of the EU, there will be no strong pro-EU Conservative case.
Which means that sadly she is refilling the pot of supporters at least as fast as the grim reaper empties it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-french-election/?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid==socialflow-twitter-politics
(Your post was great)
Le Pen 23.31%
Macron 22.99%
Fillon 19.74%
Melenchon 18.64%
Hamon 5.94%
Dupont Aignan 5.08%
Good news for RCS, DA almost overtaken Hamon!
http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2017/FE.html