politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The French ban on opinion polls came into effect at midnight w
Comments
-
The North East is less Tory today than it was in the 1950s/60s/70/80s. Sunderland South was Tory held until 1964 . Tynemouth until 1997. Hartlepool went Tory in 1959. Moreover, they held seats in Newcastle until the early 1990s. Your comment really makes little sense.viewcode said:
IndeedSean_F said:
Wales, like the North East, has been gradually shifting right for long time, but so many seats had huge Labour leads to begin with, that it's only now becoming noticeable.viewcode said:
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.0 -
Speaking to my girlfriend about the vote - she thinks shy righties will make it a Le Pen - Fillon final. She will be voting Macron but thinks he has been unimpressive so far - too lightweight.
I think Macron will hold enough votes to make it through (taking a few from Melenchon supporters, who are not as left as he is and can vote for Macron with a peg over the nose), but Fillon will be very close behind.0 -
I know why both sides probably like that sort of thing, but for local politics it really should be less of a deal, sometimes for the best of everyone these sorts of unusual arrangements are a good thing.calum said:Wonder if SLAB & SLID will give the same undertaking !
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/8557330378577797120 -
Yes, this will simply be the 'Corybn election' - a case study in what happens when parties put up dud, fringe figures as leaders. A similar thing would have happened with IDS in 2005, but the Tories, rightly, panicked and ousted him when polls showed them slipping into third place behind the Lib Dems.augustus_carp said:
I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on. However ... what if, for Labour, this is the 2015 General Election Part Two? What started in Scotland now happens in a couple of other regions as well?viewcode said:
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?0 -
Careful. The predictions are using GB-wide polling to Wales. I am not convinced that that is valid.Black_Rook said:
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/21/the-2017-general-election-some-first-thoughts-and-a-first-seat-projection/AndyJS said:If the Tories are ahead in Wales it would bring seats like Cardiff West, Cardiff South, Carmarthen East, Newport West, Newport East into play.
The suggestion, based simply on uniform swing as implied by recent GB-wide polling, is as follows:
To the Tories: Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside, Newport West, Newport East, Cardiff West, Cardiff South & Penarth
To Plaid: Ynys Mon
Cardiff South & Penarth is number 79 on the list of Tory target seats post-2015, requiring an 8% swing (that's so huge that I'm guessing that a Ukip to Con movement must have been factored in in this case.)
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is a Plaid seat inside the language belt, so I reckon that's a safe hold; however, the capacity potentially exists for upsets anywhere in Labour territory where (a) the Con+Ukip vote was greater in 2015 than that of the winning candidate, or at least reasonably close to it, and (b) Plaid is not already strong.
If Ukip goes totally tits-up then Torfaen (Labour defence no. 103) may come within range of the Conservatives.
My guess is that the Tories will easily take the first 5 on the list (the 4 NE marginals, and Bridgend). They may take one or two others, on a good night.
Running Cardiff Council is a huge heffalump-trap that has engulfed first the LibDems and second Labour, so it is possible that the anti-Labour swing in Cardiff is above the average.0 -
Seems a little generous - but not so far out of whack that it could be voided as an obvious error in the event the LDs win. *cries over lost Con 60/1 in Woking*AndyJS said:Hey?
LDs 14/1 to win Cheadle? Can't be right, surely.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics0 -
Nice spotAndyJS said:Hey?
LDs 14/1 to win Cheadle? Can't be right, surely.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics0 -
The last Wales only poll conduced by Roger Scully back in January gave VI figures of
Labour 33% (-2)
Conservative 28% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 13% (no change)
UKIP 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)
Others 2% (-1)
figures in brackets from previous poll in Sept 20160 -
One of their top 5 targets I would have thought. Poshest seat in Greater Manchester. Voted Remain IIRC.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nice spotAndyJS said:Hey?
LDs 14/1 to win Cheadle? Can't be right, surely.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics0 -
I said ruthless, not clueless.logical_song said:
Labour 'might be able to coalesce around' David Miliband.JosiasJessop said:
People.edmundintokyo said:
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.matt said:Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.
'However, the person also needs to be ruthless'
Hmm. how about Ed Miliband ;-) ?
0 -
Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
0 -
I think Altrincham and Sale West might have something to say about that!AndyJS said:
One of their top 5 targets I would have thought. Poshest seat in Greater Manchester. Voted Remain IIRC.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nice spotAndyJS said:Hey?
LDs 14/1 to win Cheadle? Can't be right, surely.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
My view is that the LDs should be in with about a 25-35% chance of re-taking Cheadle. Their successes over the 2001-2010 period were based on being able to squeeze the Labour vote to virtually nothing - should be plum for that treatment again.0 -
"some numbers" very vague.ToryJim said:
Labour third in Wales?Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/855760829937053698
Professor Scully continues to tease us.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...
This better be a tory lead in Wales and not "clickbait"....yet again....0 -
That's way too long compared with Con to win Ashfield at 7/2 and Bassetlaw at 5/4.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
0 -
Since Betfair/Paddy's LibDem line is equally priced over/under 28.5 seats, one does wonder which seats they think make up the expected 20 gains (20 relative to 2015).AndyJS said:
One of their top 5 targets I would have thought. Poshest seat in Greater Manchester. Voted Remain IIRC.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nice spotAndyJS said:Hey?
LDs 14/1 to win Cheadle? Can't be right, surely.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics0 -
Even if it was to be a realigning election the Tories would still have no chance of winning a seat in Glasgowviewcode said:
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?0 -
Jung speaks of "synchronicity": things that appear unconnected may not be.augustus_carp said:I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on.
Churchill said "everything is always in motion everywhere"
Gould speaks of "punctuated equilibrium": deep change rarely happens but when it does, it happens suddenly
Consider the anecdotage: everywhere we hear of Labour Remainers going to the Libs, Leavers of all stripes going to Cons. Labour is advertising for candidates. Women laugh at Corbyn unprompted. The sole UKIP MP resigned and tried to get the Con nom. Wales turning blue outside the Valleys. SNP leavers wavering. Sturgeon struggling, deadlock (ouch!) in Northern Ireland. May campaigning in Glasgow - Glasgow!
Interesting times...
0 -
Yes, another nice spot, thanks. Obviously a bit of a long shot for the Tories, but with that high UKIP vote share in 2015, maybe not out of reach.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/10 -
My comment was one word: "indeed".justin124 said:
The North East is less Tory today than it was in the 1950s/60s/70/80s. Sunderland South was Tory held until 1964 . Tynemouth until 1997. Hartlepool went Tory in 1959. Moreover, they held seats in Newcastle until the early 1990s. Your comment really makes little sense.viewcode said:
IndeedSean_F said:
Wales, like the North East, has been gradually shifting right for long time, but so many seats had huge Labour leads to begin with, that it's only now becoming noticeable.viewcode said:
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.0 -
The best bet for Labour is for May to get her 100 seat majority (if only around 50 or 60 Corbynistas will say he did OK) and then replace him with Starmer/Cooper and force Labour slowly back towards sanity. It is probably too early yet for a potential election winner like David Miliband or Chuka Umunna to win the leadership and they are both Blairites so will not yet be able to take the party with them, Starmer is a Kinnockite and Cooper a BrowniteJosiasJessop said:
People.edmundintokyo said:
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.matt said:Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.0 -
The Lib Dems lost 49 seats last time. Even if they were odds-against to lose them all (say 45% chance of regaining each seat on its own, 55% chance of losing each seat) the expected gains would still be above 20, despite none of them individually being an expected gain. That's without taking into account any other seat they didn't previously hold.Richard_Nabavi said:
Since Betfair/Paddy's LibDem line is equally priced over/under 28.5 seats, one does wonder which seats they think make up the expected 20 gains (20 relative to 2015).AndyJS said:
One of their top 5 targets I would have thought. Poshest seat in Greater Manchester. Voted Remain IIRC.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nice spotAndyJS said:Hey?
LDs 14/1 to win Cheadle? Can't be right, surely.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics0 -
Some of Mélenchon's supporters could give a clothespeg vote to Macron in R2, but in R1 if they reconsider voting for him they are much more likely to vote for Le Pen, abstain, or perhaps even vote for Hamon, which is who some of them intended to vote for until recently.Paristonda said:Speaking to my girlfriend about the vote - she thinks shy righties will make it a Le Pen - Fillon final. She will be voting Macron but thinks he has been unimpressive so far - too lightweight.
I think Macron will hold enough votes to make it through (taking a few from Melenchon supporters, who are not as left as he is and can vote for Macron with a peg over the nose), but Fillon will be very close behind.
0 -
Dr Eoin...
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855789723813650433
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'0 -
Same as all consumption taxes.MTimT said:
Isn't it a tax where the middle class pay the highest percentage, even if the ultra wealthy pay more in absolute terms. There is only so much even Croesus can buy.nunu said:
but hte point is VAT is not even applied to many everyday items like milk and bread. and the wealthy pay much more VAT then the poor in any case.Recidivist said:
VAT is regressive though.FrancisUrquhart said:There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?0 -
Take a look at the 2010 result.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, another nice spot, thanks. Obviously a bit of a long shot for the Tories, but with that high UKIP vote share in 2015, maybe not out of reach.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Valley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
There's no EdM leader boost for Labour as in 2015.
0 -
Bloody middle class - always whingeing!MTimT said:
Isn't it a tax where the middle class pay the highest percentage, even if the ultra wealthy pay more in absolute terms. There is only so much even Croesus can buy.nunu said:
but hte point is VAT is not even applied to many everyday items like milk and bread. and the wealthy pay much more VAT then the poor in any case.Recidivist said:
VAT is regressive though.FrancisUrquhart said:There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?0 -
I agree with that, but I know many very intelligent and sensible people who think the LDs simply have to rule out a coalition, so Eoin is not alone. Even though I am sure even were it an option the LDs would say no to a deal, that they might consider it will cost them.CarlottaVance said:Dr Eoin...
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855789723813650433
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'0 -
Many thanks for that, Mr Viewcode. I suppose we could add Rosa Luxembourg's theory to your list, that it is never possible to steer "revolutions" in the ways that would appeal to leading "revolutionaries" - things never happen quite in the ways expected by the experts. So, I take on board all and everything you have said, but maybe I am just too old, too defeatist and too experienced to believe the hype just yet. I have been shown these false dawns too often since 1976, and they never arrive.viewcode said:
Jung speaks of "synchronicity": things that appear unconnected may not be.augustus_carp said:I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on.
Churchill said "everything is always in motion everywhere"
Gould speaks of "punctuated equilibrium": deep change rarely happens but when it does, it happens suddenly
Consider the anecdotage: everywhere we hear of Labour Remainers going to the Libs, Leavers of all stripes going to Cons. Labour is advertising for candidates. Women laugh at Corbyn unprompted. The sole UKIP MP resigned and tried to get the Con nom. Wales turning blue outside the Valleys. SNP leavers wavering. Sturgeon struggling, deadlock (ouch!) in Northern Ireland. May campaigning in Glasgow - Glasgow!
Interesting times...0 -
Re the UKIP vote. Are we making the same mistake so many made in 2015?Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, another nice spot, thanks. Obviously a bit of a long shot for the Tories, but with that high UKIP vote share in 2015, maybe not out of reach.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
That 50% of 2010 Lib Dem vote would automatically switch to Labour in 2015?
Don't get me wrong, I think that's a good bet but that's what's at the back of my mind.0 -
I don't see it myself, but odds on Cheadle gratefully taken. I have £100 under 28.5, so I'm picking off a few, a few quid here and there, to cut the risk.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, another nice spot, thanks. Obviously a bit of a long shot for the Tories, but with that high UKIP vote share in 2015, maybe not out of reach.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/10 -
Messaged you.kle4 said:
I agree with that, but I know many very intelligent and sensible people who think the LDs simply have to rule out a coalition, so Eoin is not alone. Even though I am sure even were it an option the LDs would say no to a deal, that they might consider it will cost them.CarlottaVance said:Dr Eoin...
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855789723813650433
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'0 -
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855791273546043394
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....0 -
I wonder if Farron should say something like, "we will only go in coalition with whichever party agrees to keep us in the EEA". Takes the burden off of the LDs to 'pick a side'.CarlottaVance said:Dr Eoin...
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855789723813650433
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'0 -
I think he needs to work out that in coalition building it has to start with a dispassionate look at the numbers.CarlottaVance said:Dr Eoin...
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855789723813650433
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'0 -
And dumps it very heavily on Labour and the SNP.......Paristonda said:
I wonder if Farron should say something like, "we will only go in coalition with whichever party agrees to keep us in the EEA". Takes the burden off of the LDs to 'pick a side'.CarlottaVance said:Dr Eoin...
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855789723813650433
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'0 -
Now 10/1 but still value? I am tempted.AndyJS said:
One of their top 5 targets I would have thought. Poshest seat in Greater Manchester. Voted Remain IIRC.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nice spotAndyJS said:Hey?
LDs 14/1 to win Cheadle? Can't be right, surely.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics0 -
And possibly, even, policies - which ahead of Manifestos is tricky...ToryJim said:
I think he needs to work out that in coalition building it has to start with a dispassionate look at the numbers.CarlottaVance said:Dr Eoin...
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855789723813650433
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'
'So, Mr Corbyn, the Lib Dems say they'll go into coalition with someone who will keep us in the EEA - will Labour?'0 -
I suspect that Farron's refusal to rule out entering coalition with the Tories will go a long way to restoring their toxicity with left of centre voters. Probably the best news so far for Corbyn in this campaign.0
-
There is a whole branch of mathematics called catastrophe theory that looks at this sort of non-linearity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catastrophe_theoryviewcode said:
Jung speaks of "synchronicity": things that appear unconnected may not be.augustus_carp said:I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on.
Churchill said "everything is always in motion everywhere"
Gould speaks of "punctuated equilibrium": deep change rarely happens but when it does, it happens suddenly
Consider the anecdotage: everywhere we hear of Labour Remainers going to the Libs, Leavers of all stripes going to Cons. Labour is advertising for candidates. Women laugh at Corbyn unprompted. The sole UKIP MP resigned and tried to get the Con nom. Wales turning blue outside the Valleys. SNP leavers wavering. Sturgeon struggling, deadlock (ouch!) in Northern Ireland. May campaigning in Glasgow - Glasgow!
Interesting times...
If you are a fan of Gould's and Churchill's quotes, together they make the constantly co-evolving and changing evolutionary fitness maps that is pretty much how I see the world.0 -
I think a lot of 2010 Lib Dems switched to 2015 UKIP "none of the above" protest votes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Re the UKIP vote. Are we making the same mistake so many made in 2015?Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, another nice spot, thanks. Obviously a bit of a long shot for the Tories, but with that high UKIP vote share in 2015, maybe not out of reach.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
That 50% of 2010 Lib Dem vote would automatically switch to Labour in 2015?
Don't get me wrong, I think that's a good bet but that's what's at the back of my mind.
So yes it is a mistake to assume they'd automatically go blue now. Many are likely to return yellow/orange or stay purple or anything else really other than red.0 -
Except that he cannot afford (and wouldn't want) to raise the possibility of putting Corbyn into no, 10.CarlottaVance said:
And dumps it very heavily on Labour and the SNP.......Paristonda said:
I wonder if Farron should say something like, "we will only go in coalition with whichever party agrees to keep us in the EEA". Takes the burden off of the LDs to 'pick a side'.CarlottaVance said:Dr Eoin...
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855789723813650433
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.0
-
Listening to voters on the media the one question that will put Theresa May in Downing Street with an increased majority
Who do you want to run the Country ?0 -
Plaid have considered a coalition with Tories in the past IIRC. Wasn’t there a ‘Rainbow’ in Wales at one point?CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855791273546043394
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....0 -
Taken. Keep them coming. I'm only put a few quid here and there, but gives something to spice the election night up.another_richard said:
That's way too long compared with Con to win Ashfield at 7/2 and Bassetlaw at 5/4.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/10 -
Guy Verhostadt trying to make friends again
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435268/EU-Brexit-ordinator-savages-Theresa-May.html0 -
LOL.Cyan said:
Bloody middle class - always whingeing!MTimT said:
Isn't it a tax where the middle class pay the highest percentage, even if the ultra wealthy pay more in absolute terms. There is only so much even Croesus can buy.nunu said:
but hte point is VAT is not even applied to many everyday items like milk and bread. and the wealthy pay much more VAT then the poor in any case.Recidivist said:
VAT is regressive though.FrancisUrquhart said:There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?0 -
Don Valley electorate: comparatively old, very white, voted heavily for Leave, Con+Ukip vote greater than that of Labour in 2015.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.0 -
Indeed. By the end of the process everyone will know the choice is 'leadership' or 'chaos'.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to voters on the media the one question that will put Theresa May in Downing Street with an increased majority
Who do you want to run the Country ?
0 -
LDs 20/1 for Chippenham. I'd give them a better chance than that on local strength in the town (although there is the hinterland and Wiltshires moderate Leave vote to consider), but enough that it's worth a shot? Eh, I only deal in tiny amounts anyway, why not.0
-
There is one question that I cant answer about this election so I'm putting it out to the knowledgeable people of PB.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.0 -
R5 reporting rumours that Hazard and Costa out of today's match..... it's the hope that kills you as a Spurs fan0
-
She's in Glasgow but her audience is England.viewcode said:
May campaigning in Glasgow - Glasgow!augustus_carp said:I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on.
Classic political theater, and - I suspect - rather effective.0 -
Sounds like the kind of seat that will fall if, and only if, this is a Labour wipeout of existential levels. At the moment that looks at least likely to me. The public may be minded to teach Labour a lesson about loony left fantasy politics.Black_Rook said:
Don Valley electorate: comparatively old, very white, voted heavily for Leave, Con+Ukip vote greater than that of Labour in 2015.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.0 -
Yes i get that, but HYUFD called her personally a sitting SNP MP, not the seat an SNP held seat. Since the whip has been withdrawn she is not a sitting SNP MP.Richard_Tyndall said:
For the purposes of the GE seat changes Carswell's seat will be counted as UKIP and Thomson's seat will be counted as SNP.Philip_Thompson said:
Doesn't make her a sitting SNP MP unless she still holds the whip.HYUFD said:
She was elected as an SNP candidateTheuniondivvie said:
Where does it say in the piece that Thomson is the sitting SNP mp?HYUFD said:SNP does not endorse sitting SNP MP in LD target Edinburgh West, forcing her to stand down
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39678794
Is Carswell a sitting UKIP MP?
As far as Statistics are concerned Clacton is currently UKIP held but Carswell is not a sitting UKIP MP nor is Zac Goldsmith a sitting Tory MP despite the fact that his seat is Tory held for seat change comparisons.0 -
May is the new Brown.0
-
Bearing in mind if Corbyn wins school fees will be going up (not say a dozen other bash-the-wealthy proposals), I suspect a few people can be found to dig deep.BigRich said:There is one question that I cant answer about this election so I'm putting it out to the knowledgeable people of PB.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.0 -
Can anyone link me a list of Labour seats by majority? I think Richard N had one before.0
-
Probably a combination of all 3, I very much doubt the money won't be there.BigRich said:There is one question that I cant answer about this election so I'm putting it out to the knowledgeable people of PB.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.0 -
Commentators, the Press and us anoraks are going to be bored to tears because we're paying attention - ordinary voters aren't so much, so the Tories are right to take a simple message and keep hammering it. Relentlessly.rottenborough said:
Indeed. By the end of the process everyone will know the choice is 'leadership' or 'chaos'.Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to voters on the media the one question that will put Theresa May in Downing Street with an increased majority
Who do you want to run the Country ?0 -
With respect, I think it's 3)BigRich said:There is one question that I cant answer about this election so I'm putting it out to the knowledgeable people of PB.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.
Cons have no problem at all fundraising from both big & small donors.
Their problem is deciding which donors not to take money off right now.0 -
The real problem with the election of Farron and his positioning post the 2015 disaster is that the Lib Dems haven't been eager enough to distance themselves from Labour, rather than the Tories.OldKingCole said:
Plaid have considered a coalition with Tories in the past IIRC. Wasn’t there a ‘Rainbow’ in Wales at one point?CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855791273546043394
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....
If voters in Southern England thought they could rely on the Lib Dems to act as a kind of wet centrist, Cameron-Clegg party - and to consider deals with the Tories, but explicitly not to touch either Labour or the SNP with a ten foot bargepole - then they might be doing rather better down here. Especially as Labour at the Parliamentary level looks, more than ever, like a spent force almost everywhere south of the Severn-Wash line except London.
Although that said, the whole Europhilia thing is something of a complication for them in most of the South West...0 -
Not backing it, because I have already, but I remain perplexed by Macron not being favourite to lead the first round, given he's top in practically every poll.
The margin is small, certainly, so it's possible he won't be, but it still looks rather counter-intuitive.0 -
3 mainly and don't underestimate how many are prepared to donate to avoid PM Corbyn.BigRich said:There is one question that I cant answer about this election so I'm putting it out to the knowledgeable people of PB.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.
From memory the Tories have been getting more donations than any other party on the last few reported statistics. In fact last time even the Lib Dems got more in donations than Labour - but Labour got more funds when Short money was taken into account.0 -
As a member of the 1%, I suspect that we pay a great deal more than 16% of all taxes levied on individuals. Don't forget that pretty much all capital gains tax is going to be paid by the 1%, and a very large proportion of estate taxes too.Barnesian said:
27% of income tax. They pay little VAT proportionally as they are unable to spend most of their incomes, so probably less than 5% of VAT and excise duties and council tax.Richard_Tyndall said:
I believe the stat shown yesterday on here was that the top 1% earn 11% of the income and pay 27% of the taxes. Not making any comment on whether this is good or bad, just filling in one of the gaps.rcs1000 said:
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.CarlottaVance said:Tories (or to be fair, the Coalition) tax the rich:
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/855761356338999296
Government income from VAT, excise duties and Council tax is more than that from income taxes.
So my guess is that the top 1% get 11% of the income and around 16% of taxes overall. They could easily afford much more tax and still live very comfortably.0 -
What do you expect? It's not as if Theresa May is going to say "well I was dead set on leaving but that Guy is such a charmer I can't help myself. Let's stay after all."ToryJim said:Guy Verhostadt trying to make friends again
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435268/EU-Brexit-ordinator-savages-Theresa-May.html0 -
It's complicated. I would not rule out LD for working with Labour (usually, I would if Lab are led by Corbyn), but perhaps for being raised deep in the Tory shires I am naturally more wary of Lab than Con, and I'd personally prefer the LDs be open to all sides, even if they prefer one over the other, so the approach you describe might do better with me and some other southerners, but in terms of maximising their vote and getting the best chance to win seats, repudiating Con seems the better approach.Black_Rook said:
The real problem with the election of Farron and his positioning post the 2015 disaster is that the Lib Dems haven't been eager enough to distance themselves from Labour, rather than the Tories.OldKingCole said:
Plaid have considered a coalition with Tories in the past IIRC. Wasn’t there a ‘Rainbow’ in Wales at one point?CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855791273546043394
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....
If voters in Southern England thought they could rely on the Lib Dems to act as a kind of wet centrist, Cameron-Clegg party - and to consider deals with the Tories, but explicitly not to touch either Labour or the SNP with a ten foot bargepole - then they might be doing rather better down here. Especially as Labour at the Parliamentary level looks, more than ever, like a spent force almost everywhere south of the Severn-Wash line except London.
Although that said, the whole Europhilia thing is something of a complication for them in most of the South West...
Problem is now people will see the first message, that it is not ruled out, and even if that changes not all will see it, same as with the homosexual sinning bit. I already know one LD leaning Tory who was put off by that issue.0 -
Ray Galvin's website has one: http://www.justsolutions.eu/Marginals/labMarginals.aspTheWhiteRabbit said:Can anyone link me a list of Labour seats by majority? I think Richard N had one before.
0 -
If Corbyn does cause a collapse in Labour votes and seats I wonder how much that will affect future Short money.0
-
Mr Dancer perhaps punters are factoring in that Macron is an unknown electoral quantity and so plenty of people may say they will vote for him but not bother. Plus perhaps a shy Le Pen factor is being added into bettors calculations. There are a number of reasons why in what looks like a four way photo finish the horse that looks slightly in front may not be backed as such. Not that I'm any sort of expert.0
-
Lament with me, brother(s). Our great father is dead.
0 -
There is a Wikipedia page that list all 2015 constituency results that includes winning party and majority so easy to put into excel and filter.TheWhiteRabbit said:Can anyone link me a list of Labour seats by majority? I think Richard N had one before.
0 -
I think in fact Farron’s taking the sensible line that he’s not ruling out etc, but he’s said in the past that he thinks it wildly unlikely.kle4 said:
I predict he'll reverse on it before too long.justin124 said:I suspect that Farron's refusal to rule out entering coalition with the Tories will go a long way to restoring their toxicity with left of centre voters. Probably the best news so far for Corbyn in this campaign.
However I agree that he’ll make it a lot clearer soon!0 -
No but as someone who was a reluctant Remainer he is the type of Eurocrat who would push me across the aisle.Recidivist said:
What do you expect? It's not as if Theresa May is going to say "well I was dead set on leaving but that Guy is such a charmer I can't help myself. Let's stay after all."ToryJim said:Guy Verhostadt trying to make friends again
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435268/EU-Brexit-ordinator-savages-Theresa-May.html
0 -
Bloody Vicente.... well done Malc...0
-
Mr. Jim, that does make some sense, but he has been leading almost all polls for a long time. Also, if you're right about the thinking (and it's a credible view) then Fillon would probably be the value to lead the first round.0
-
You were a big fan of Brown, does that mean you will be voting for May this time around?Jonathan said:May is the new Brown.
0 -
He's right. Simples.ToryJim said:Guy Verhostadt trying to make friends again
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435268/EU-Brexit-ordinator-savages-Theresa-May.html0 -
Question is- is this a "normal" landslide, of the sort Conservatives got in '83 PR '87, or Labour got in '97 or '01? In other words, will the loser clearly lose but equally clearly Stoll be in second place? Or is something else (and very strange) in the air? Don't know what, though.rottenborough said:
Sounds like the kind of seat that will fall if, and only if, this is a Labour wipeout of existential levels. At the moment that looks at least likely to me. The public may be minded to teach Labour a lesson about loony left fantasy politics.Black_Rook said:
Don Valley electorate: comparatively old, very white, voted heavily for Leave, Con+Ukip vote greater than that of Labour in 2015.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.0 -
Is that J Gordon "bottled holding an early election" Brown?Jonathan said:May is the new Brown.
0 -
good ideaAlistair said:
There is a Wikipedia page that list all 2015 constituency results that includes winning party and majority so easy to put into excel and filter.TheWhiteRabbit said:Can anyone link me a list of Labour seats by majority? I think Richard N had one before.
0 -
Is it likely?rottenborough said:
Sounds like the kind of seat that will fall if, and only if, this is a Labour wipeout of existential levels. At the moment that looks at least likely to me. The public may be minded to teach Labour a lesson about loony left fantasy politics.Black_Rook said:
Don Valley electorate: comparatively old, very white, voted heavily for Leave, Con+Ukip vote greater than that of Labour in 2015.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.
Most people want a reasonable opposition and are suspicious of gargantuan majorities.
The last gargantuan majority led to a search in Iraq for human shredding machines, and the one before that led to the first Poll Tax since John of Gaunt. I shudder to think what spectacular and disastrous inanity will happen this time if there is a 150+ majority.
And Jeremy is not dislikable at a personal level. And the British don’t like seeing underdogs smashed to smithereens. And most Labour supporters (whether Corbynistas or not) want the Labour party to survive.
And (perhaps the true saviour), most Labour candidates will be two-faced. They will be Hyper-remainers in Cambridge or Bermondsey. But, in the South Wales Valleys, they will be saying Freedom of Movement is going to end. Lying almost always works in politics.
0 -
Tosh.Cyan said:A lot of humorous election posters have been stuck up in Paris. The effect may be to increase abstention.
I wonder who's paying? Some of the posters feature Disney characters. The Disney CEO, Bob Iger, is a member of Donald Trump's Strategic and Policy Forum.
Certain parties may exert a big push today, without minding that we are supposed to be in "election silence".
Report by BFMTV.
Report in the Daily Mail, in an article that they headline with the words "'More terror attacks will bring civil war' warns Marine Le Pen".
Examples:
Yep - the message does seem to be "Don't vote", which will help the candidates whose supporters are most committed to voting. Meaning Le Pen.
This will have absolutely no impact on turnout, which will probably top last time around.
And why do you think Le Pen's supporters are most likely to turn out? She's had the highest certainty to vote for a year, and has had - absent Hamon - the worst momentum in the polls.0 -
If all these parties refuse to go into coalition with the Conservatives, how much hope is there for them ever taking part in a government if we move to a more proportional voting system?CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855791273546043394
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....
Good afternoon, everybody.0 -
Back in 2007 leaders of Pc Cons and Lib Dems backed idea of rainbow coalition but vetoed in by Lib Dems at a special conference - PC ended up going into coalition with LabourOldKingCole said:
Plaid have considered a coalition with Tories in the past IIRC. Wasn’t there a ‘Rainbow’ in Wales at one point?CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855791273546043394
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....0 -
Mr Dancer, I think it's anybody's guess as from what I've seen the top 4 are clustered more or less within the MOE. I would suggest that almost all the candidates you can make plausible cases for why they'd underperform their poll. There are also cases for why they'd each outperform. Nothing would entirely surprise me.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, that does make some sense, but he has been leading almost all polls for a long time. Also, if you're right about the thinking (and it's a credible view) then Fillon would probably be the value to lead the first round.
0 -
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.ToryJim said:Guy Verhostadt trying to make friends again
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435268/EU-Brexit-ordinator-savages-Theresa-May.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/theresa-may-election-power-grab-slammed-guy-verhofstadt-brexit-negotiator
I'm sure the Spanish tourist industry will be thrilled0 -
Good afternoon, Mr Dancer.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
0 -
Yes, he's absolutely right. We all know why Theresa did it - cashing in on the Corbyn card. But let's not fall for any of the piety about it strengthening her Brexit position. It won't and anyone thinking otherwise is in for a disappointment.murali_s said:
He's right. Simples.ToryJim said:Guy Verhostadt trying to make friends again
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435268/EU-Brexit-ordinator-savages-Theresa-May.html0 -
Just seen the odds put up by Betfair and PP for Carshalton and Wallington
9/4 Cons seems generous considering UKIP may not stand and it was a leave constituency.
Also CChQ are making this a target seaT
Lds 1/4
DYOR0 -
Have you seen the 14/1 for the LDs in Cheadle? (It may have changed since I last looked).timmo said:Just seen the odds put up by Betfair and PP for Carshalton and Wallington
9/4 Cons seems generous considering UKIP may not stand and it was a leave constituency.
Also CChQ are making this a target seaT
Lds 1/4
DYOR0 -
Or the 'lost an election heavily' Brown?ThreeQuidder said:
Is that J Gordon "bottled holding an early election" Brown?Jonathan said:May is the new Brown.
0 -
Labour is going to emerge from this election clearly as the second largest party, and by a very long stretch. Most likely the PLP will be reduced to numbers not dissimilar to those of John Major's Tories in 1997, although the Conservative majority won't be nearly as enormous as Tony Blair's was because he controlled most of the seats in Scotland, of course.Stuartinromford said:Question is- is this a "normal" landslide, of the sort Conservatives got in '83 PR '87, or Labour got in '97 or '01? In other words, will the loser clearly lose but equally clearly Stoll be in second place? Or is something else (and very strange) in the air? Don't know what, though.
rottenborough said:
Sounds like the kind of seat that will fall if, and only if, this is a Labour wipeout of existential levels. At the moment that looks at least likely to me. The public may be minded to teach Labour a lesson about loony left fantasy politics.Black_Rook said:
Don Valley electorate: comparatively old, very white, voted heavily for Leave, Con+Ukip vote greater than that of Labour in 2015.another_richard said:Betfair
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.
If Labour can recover, and how long this might take - even assuming that it doesn't split again - is open to question. Following both 1979 and 1997, the defeated Opposition had to wait four Parliaments before returning to power...0 -
His country doesn't even have a functioning intelligence service & has to rely on ours....murali_s said:
He's right. Simples.ToryJim said:Guy Verhostadt trying to make friends again
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435268/EU-Brexit-ordinator-savages-Theresa-May.html0 -
Every time I've travelled to a major EU capital there have been plenty of subcontinental students and when I've visited the right parts plenty of Muscovite tourists. There doesn't seem to be huge prohibitive barriers to either in current EU rules.CarlottaVance said:
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.ToryJim said:Guy Verhostadt trying to make friends again
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435268/EU-Brexit-ordinator-savages-Theresa-May.html
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/theresa-may-election-power-grab-slammed-guy-verhofstadt-brexit-negotiator
I'm sure the Spanish tourist industry will be thrilled0 -
Is it possible to bet on the LDs coming second in the popular vote? Because if the Labour campaign implodes over the next few weeks they could take second place by default.0
-
Miss JGP, well, quite.
It's like people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 and were annoyed when they went into government.0 -
Just got back from delivering for the Tories in a South London marginal seat. Very large number of volunteers; we covered a decent portion of the constituency in a single day!
We have the bit between our teeth. It feels like Labour are still on the starting line.0 -
Corbyn on the Marr show in morning and Farron is on Peston0
