Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Widely seen as the 'heir to Blair' by media/centrist and Blue Labour. Absence of talent on Labour benches.
SNP bashing is a guaranteed vote-winner in the rest of the country. Theresa May should do it as often as possible, especially because attempts by Labour to do similar (even when made) sound inauthentic. First and foremost, because Corbyn (and most of the Far Left and their Champagne Socialist fellow travellers) want to break up Britain. And secondly, some of the more wildly optimistic ones think they might need the SNP's votes to support their Government if they somehow fall just short of an overall majority (no laughing at the back please.)
Mixed group of middle-class (U3a) OAP’s yesterday; was quite surprised at the anti-Sturgeon feeling. 8 of us, 4 hostile, and I mean hostile, 2 neutral -ish and 2 (uncluding me) ‘quite like”. How are we voting otherwise? 3 Left or Centre Left, one anti-Corbyn, one possibly UKIP, 2 didn’t say, 1 Tory.
I distinctly remember this site doing polling on the popularity of various parties and figures a few months ago (I don't recall exactly when, possibly not too long after the election of Trump...?)
The results were broken down by Leave and Remain. The SNP got a broadly neutral reception amongst Remainers, i.e. about as many of those who offered an opinion approved as disapproved.
Amongst Leavers, they were about as welcome as the Black Death. Right down there with Putin.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Fair play, an honest admission that all that 'talking to actual voters' and wanting to 'represent every person in the whole United Kingdom' is just so much Tessybollox.
I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7 Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4 Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1 Belfast East: Alliance 1/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7 Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11 Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6 Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15 Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7 Bristol West: Green 5/4 Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5 Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1 Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10 Sheffield Central: Green 25/1 Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)
Perhaps so, but I suspect from that list he'll be in profit overall. The shorter odd Tory & LD seats all look good prospects. Hayes & Harlington would be hilarious! In some ways JC himself is more vulnerable given the very different demographic of his constituency, but unfortunately neither are realistic prospects no matter how disastrous the campaign is for Labour.
'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
I think what you are overlooking is the sheer desperation of the PLP that wish Corbyn gone.
'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
Labour candidates struggling to defend their seats don't actually want Corbyn to come visiting, so he has to have a reason to go elsewhere. We were speculating about this on Thursday.
Oh, indeed. The piece has something to say about that as well:
Even as leader Jeremy Corbyn campaigns for victory on June 8, officials in the party’s headquarters see him as a liability and are focused instead on minimizing the scale of defeat, according to two people familiar with the strategies, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Corbyn will tour districts the party needs to win to gain a majority in Parliament, as staff at headquarters, who control party funds, plan the defense of seats they think the party might be able to hold against an onslaught from May’s Conservatives. That could mean only those with majorities of 5,000 votes or more, according to one person.
“Normally you would expect leadership tours to tally closely with the party’s list of target seats, but Corbyn’s not the electoral asset you would expect leaders to be,” Justin Fisher, professor of politics at Brunel University, said in a telephone interview. “The challenge Labour faces is focusing their campaign on the local contests rather than the national party.”
Send the leader off to be laughed at in Telford and Corby, whilst scrambling to save the likes of Jon Cruddas and Sue Hayman from the axe. Again, sounds wholly plausible.
So If we see Corbyn visit a seat, can we/should we assume labour Party HQ have given up on that seat?
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.
I believe the stat shown yesterday on here was that the top 1% earn 11% of the income and pay 27% of the taxes. Not making any comment on whether this is good or bad, just filling in one of the gaps.
I feel like maybe they need a bit more than that to go with?
I have to give them credit for actually mentioning Conservatives on the poster this time but still banging on about the Independece Referendum as always. Single policy party.
Not quite, they do support the 'sensitive' rape clause.
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.
That's one factor, but government action, since 2008, is another:
Increased reliance on a small number of income tax payers follows a longer-run trend driven by above-average increases in top incomes. Since 2008, this reliance has been largely driven by increases in taxes on the rich and tax cuts - mostly via a higher personal allowance - for low- and middle-income taxpayers.
I feel like maybe they need a bit more than that to go with?
I have to give them credit for actually mentioning Conservatives on the poster this time but still banging on about the Independece Referendum as always. Single policy party.
Not quite, they do support the 'sensitive' rape clause.
Which the SNP has the power to do something about, but won't.....
Given Labour need 411 new candidates, why doesn't the good doctor stand for Labour? He spends more time on Labour PR than most full time Labour MPs and spinners already.
Wow, so the four biggest items on the budget, accounting for 69% of government spending, are *all* underestimated by the public. Only the fifth item, debt interest at 7%, is accurately known. All the smaller items, accounting for only 24% in total, are overestimated in their significance.
TL:DR; spending isn't coming down until the welfare bill does.
For better or worse people think of unemployment benefits when they hear welfare.
As an exercise go to http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending and try to guess how the welfare budget is broken down. Even knowing that unemployment is overestimated, and having been warned by me, i bet you'll still over estimate it!
Thanks for posting that link, Mr. Rkrkrk. The interesting, maybe frightening is a better word, is that the welfare bill is now largely detached from economic performance. That is to say it doesn't matter if the economy is growing or in recession the welfare bill is only ever going to go up.
So either taxes continue to rise or even bigger cuts are made elsewhere. We cannot keep cutting law enforcement and defence and Health and overseas aid are ring fenced to the extent that they will also continue to climb. How high can Hammond push taxes?
I wouldn't say totally detached. Hopefully we will see increases in wages (and therefore reductions in tax credits) as economy performs better. But little can be done about pensions and disabilities except in the long run.
Housing benefit could be brought down significantly by building more council houses IMO... I think there are also likely to be big hidden benefits from choosing council housing over paying for private rental accommodation.
'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
From a financial point of view if nothing else, it would make good sense to find an excuse to radically cut down their slate of candidates. The Liberal Democrats could afford to shoulder the burden of hundreds of lost deposits in 2015. Ukip can't do that in 2017.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Fair play, an honest admission that all that 'talking to actual voters' and wanting to 'represent every person in the whole United Kingdom' is just so much Tessybollox.
I am sure May would love to win 100% of the vote but this is the UK and not North Korea, she needs a clear majority nothing more
He looks about 12, which actually doesn't surprise me.
Bit harsh on 12 years old. Most of the ones I know are a lot more rational about the world. They have grown out of the stage of free sweets for all is perfectly rational.
Given Labour need 411 new candidates, why doesn't the good doctor stand for Labour? He spends more time on Labour PR than most full time Labour MPs and spinners already.
Labour’s shortage of parliamentary candidates can be easily solved if they simply lowered the entry level bar, hell, even IOS could be selected...
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Fair play, an honest admission that all that 'talking to actual voters' and wanting to 'represent every person in the whole United Kingdom' is just so much Tessybollox.
I think that's a bit harsh. I'm no fan of May, and I encourage politicians to try and gain support even in less than fertile territory for their parties, but they have limited resources (well, they'll probably behave more carefully this time at least), and cold calculation would be there's not much to be gained from the PM going to places where they have no chance, and plenty of chance for very bad optics, it doesn't mean she doesn't want to talk to actual voters or represent every person (the former I'm sure no politician wants, outside of election time anyway), and it is unfair to paint not visiting a place, even a significant place, as the same as thinking wanting to represent it as bollocks, and 'talking to actual voters' does not just mean 'talking to people who don't like me' just as it does not mean 'talking only to people who like me'.
Not all parties can be like the SNP and (as of 2015) be competitive in every seat they contest.
He looks about 12, which actually doesn't surprise me.
Bit harsh on 12 years old. Most of the ones I know are a lot more rational about the world. They have grown out of the stage of free sweets for all is perfectly rational.
Given Labour need 411 new candidates, why doesn't the good doctor stand for Labour? He spends more time on Labour PR than most full time Labour MPs and spinners already.
The failings of those around Ed Miliband are numerous. From the Edstone to the interview with Russell Brand, the disconnection between Team Miliband and the real world was one of the key factors contributing to Labour’s defeat last month. But I now understand they committed a far graver crime: taking Dr. Eoin Clarke seriously.
Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.
Given Labour need 411 new candidates, why doesn't the good doctor stand for Labour? He spends more time on Labour PR than most full time Labour MPs and spinners already.
The failings of those around Ed Miliband are numerous. From the Edstone to the interview with Russell Brand, the disconnection between Team Miliband and the real world was one of the key factors contributing to Labour’s defeat last month. But I now understand they committed a far graver crime: taking Dr. Eoin Clarke seriously.
A man who has had to make more retractions for publishing false information than all leading newspapers put together...Lib Dems and their dodgy bar charts got nothing on the good Dr.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...
he is quoted o his blog as saying if the latest opinion poll is correct then Wales will turn Blue in June for the first time since 1918 with NO Labour MPs north or west of the valleys with Cons winning 10 seats and Plaid 1
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...
I'm assuming that this means above UNS swings. UKIP + Con was 40% in Wales in 2015. reckon that it's going to be 40% Con, 30% Lab, 5% UKIP, 12% PC, 10% LD.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...
he is quoted o his blog as saying if the latest opinion poll is correct then Wales will turn Blue in June for the first time since 1918 with NO Labour MPs north or west of the valleys with Cons winning 10 seats and Plaid 1
Yeah, but that is based on the GB wide poll with UNS applied to Wales, so it could potentially be even worse.
A lot of humorous election posters have been stuck up in Paris. The effect may be to increase abstention.
I wonder who's paying? Some of the posters feature Disney characters. The Disney CEO, Bob Iger, is a member of Donald Trump's Strategic and Policy Forum.
Certain parties may exert a big push today, without minding that we are supposed to be in "election silence".
Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.
People.
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.
Finally, there are also some indications that the SNP vote may be splitting along EU referendum lines. They only managed to retain 55% of their 2015 voters who supported Leave compared with 83% of their voters who supported Remain.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...
I'm assuming that this means above UNS swings. UKIP + Con was 40% in Wales in 2015. reckon that it's going to be 40% Con, 30% Lab, 5% UKIP, 12% PC, 10% LD.
I have been pondering the possibilities for the Tories if Ukip implodes, but even allowing for that the very notion of a 10pt Tory lead - or anything like it - in Wales is astonishing. It would be nice to think such a thing is possible, but once again this seems well into 'too good to be true' territory. If Labour were to endure losses on that scale, then the Conservatives could end up holding an absolute majority of all the seats in Wales, even allowing for Labour's continued domination of its under-sized and low turnout seats in the Valleys. But I guess we'll find out more on Monday.
I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7 Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4 Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1 Belfast East: Alliance 1/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7 Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11 Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6 Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15 Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7 Bristol West: Green 5/4 Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5 Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1 Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10 Sheffield Central: Green 25/1 Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Fair play, an honest admission that all that 'talking to actual voters' and wanting to 'represent every person in the whole United Kingdom' is just so much Tessybollox.
I think that's a bit harsh. I'm no fan of May, and I encourage politicians to try and gain support even in less than fertile territory for their parties, but they have limited resources (well, they'll probably behave more carefully this time at least), and cold calculation would be there's not much to be gained from the PM going to places where they have no chance, and plenty of chance for very bad optics, it doesn't mean she doesn't want to talk to actual voters or represent every person (the former I'm sure no politician wants, outside of election time anyway), and it is unfair to paint not visiting a place, even a significant place, as the same as thinking wanting to represent it as bollocks, and 'talking to actual voters' does not just mean 'talking to people who don't like me' just as it does not mean 'talking only to people who like me'.
Not all parties can be like the SNP and (as of 2015) be competitive in every seat they contest.
Yeah, well, life and politics are unfair.
The substitute for not having the resources or guts to 'talk to actual voters' (Tessy's own phrase) is to test your policies publicly against those against whom you're standing to get these actual votes, aka televised debates.
If pols are double feart, they'll just have to suck up all the accusations of cowardice, hypocrisy and low calculation that come their way. In any case I'm sure it won't make a jot of difference to the carefully selected, prompted-to-applaud, no-questions-allowed audiences Tessy prefers.
'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7 Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4 Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1 Belfast East: Alliance 1/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7 Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11 Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6 Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15 Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7 Bristol West: Green 5/4 Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5 Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1 Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10 Sheffield Central: Green 25/1 Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...
Labour third in Wales?
Impossible. The Lib Dems are clawing their way out of an even deeper pit in Wales than they are in England, and Plaid Cymru generally struggle to gain traction outside of the language heartlands (they did make waves with the Rhondda and a couple of other near misses in the last Assembly election, but even so...)
Labour is still the governing party in Wales, not a rotted corpse as in Scotland.
He has previously suggested companies should be banned from sacking people and workers should be given powers to take over their businesses.
Mr Fisher has also backed abolishing the City of London and ending tax havens in the Channel Islands and the Cayman Islands.
The hard-Left ideas were contained in a book, The Failed Experiment: And How to Build an Economy That Works, which was published in 2014.
Mr Fisher questioned why politicians were "obsessed with economic growth"
Aren't the tax policies of the Channel and Cayman Islands decided in house and HMG has no jurisdiction over them?
In theory, yes: their loyalty is to the Crown (the state), Westminster is the Parliament of the United Kingdom, HMG is the the Government of the United Kingdom, and the Channel Islands most definitely are not in the UK.
But, but, but...
But the PM is not just the formateur of HMG and chair of the Cabinet, she's also a member of the Privy Council and can wield Orders-in-Council. Never forget that the Cabinet ultimately is just a subcommittee of the Privy Council. The armed forces are loyal to the Crown, not Parliament.
This blurring of the lines enables many things to be possible: the example I bring up is the governance of Northern Ireland: it used to have its own government, executive and PM, then it was direct ruled from London, now it has devolved government and two First Ministers. Administratively that's quite difficult to pull off, but the British state managed it.
This was why, even as a fervent Remainer, I was so disappointed when the courts ruled that May had to get Parliament approval for Article 50: it really had nothing to do with them.
So (to answer your question): theoretically they can't do it, but if they were determined enough, practically they could
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.
I believe the stat shown yesterday on here was that the top 1% earn 11% of the income and pay 27% of the taxes. Not making any comment on whether this is good or bad, just filling in one of the gaps.
27% of income tax. They pay little VAT proportionally as they are unable to spend most of their incomes, so probably less than 5% of VAT and excise duties and council tax.
Government income from VAT, excise duties and Council tax is more than that from income taxes.
So my guess is that the top 1% get 11% of the income and around 16% of taxes overall. They could easily afford much more tax and still live very comfortably.
I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7 Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4 Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1 Belfast East: Alliance 1/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7 Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11 Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6 Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15 Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7 Bristol West: Green 5/4 Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5 Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1 Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10 Sheffield Central: Green 25/1 Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)
Taking up your lay....?
Laying Kate Hoey?
Robert was offering 10/1 that the LibDems wouldn't win and got several takers at those odds betting that they would. I just wanted to check the terminology as he is the one doing the laying?
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.
People.
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.
Thanks for the thoughtful replies. I suppose he strikes me as a tidal politician. He was a rising boat as the Labour tide came in but fell as the tide went out. He doesn't strike me as either ruthless or someone able to make the political weather. He was not Brown and now he's not Corbyn. He failed at the former - what's changed which means that he'll succeed at the latter?
Edit: ignoring the mixed weather/water metaphors, it strikes me that can apply this analysis with a similar conclusion to Cooper.
I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7 Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4 Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1 Belfast East: Alliance 1/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7 Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11 Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6 Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15 Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7 Bristol West: Green 5/4 Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5 Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1 Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10 Sheffield Central: Green 25/1 Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)
Taking up your lay....?
Laying Kate Hoey?
Robert was offering 10/1 that the LibDems wouldn't win and got several takers at those odds betting that they would. I just wanted to check the terminology as he is the one doing the laying?
Hoey has been disowned by the local Labour party and is seriously toxic after her dalliance with Farage. She used to be seen as a maverick in the mould of Frank Field but not anymore.
I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7 Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4 Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1 Belfast East: Alliance 1/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7 Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11 Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6 Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15 Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7 Bristol West: Green 5/4 Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5 Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1 Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10 Sheffield Central: Green 25/1 Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)
Perhaps so, but I suspect from that list he'll be in profit overall. The shorter odd Tory & LD seats all look good prospects. Hayes & Harlington would be hilarious! In some ways JC himself is more vulnerable given the very different demographic of his constituency, but unfortunately neither are realistic prospects no matter how disastrous the campaign is for Labour.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Clothing and sanitary products are VAT-able as well, but yes- as a general rule, essential products are exempted.
The abolition of VAT on fuel and sanitary products must form part of any post-Brexit budget.
Why? Using the tax system to encourage people to bathe more seems like government overreach.
May be you should ask your wife what "sanitary products" are and the role they play in public health?
Wow, so the four biggest items on the budget, accounting for 69% of government spending, are *all* underestimated by the public. Only the fifth item, debt interest at 7%, is accurately known. All the smaller items, accounting for only 24% in total, are overestimated in their significance.
TL:DR; spending isn't coming down until the welfare bill does.
For better or worse people think of unemployment benefits when they hear welfare.
As an exercise go to http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending and try to guess how the welfare budget is broken down. Even knowing that unemployment is overestimated, and having been warned by me, i bet you'll still over estimate it!
Thanks for posting that link, Mr. Rkrkrk. The interesting, maybe frightening is a better word, is that the welfare bill is now largely detached from economic performance. That is to say it doesn't matter if the economy is growing or in recession the welfare bill is only ever going to go up.
So either taxes continue to rise or even bigger cuts are made elsewhere. We cannot keep cutting law enforcement and defence and Health and overseas aid are ring fenced to the extent that they will also continue to climb. How high can Hammond push taxes?
I wouldn't say totally detached. Hopefully we will see increases in wages (and therefore reductions in tax credits) as economy performs better. But little can be done about pensions and disabilities except in the long run.
Housing benefit could be brought down significantly by building more council houses IMO... I think there are also likely to be big hidden benefits from choosing council housing over paying for private rental accommodation.
Quoting yourself might well be a sign of madness... But following on from this... I did NOT know that the UK has the WORST real wage growth since financial crisis out of OECD countries (apart from Greece).
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
Glasgow Hillhead was Tory held until the March 1982 by election.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
The suggestion, based simply on uniform swing as implied by recent GB-wide polling, is as follows:
To the Tories: Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside, Newport West, Newport East, Cardiff West, Cardiff South & Penarth
To Plaid: Ynys Mon
Cardiff South & Penarth is number 79 on the list of Tory target seats post-2015, requiring an 8% swing (that's so huge that I'm guessing that a Ukip to Con movement must have been factored in in this case.)
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is a Plaid seat inside the language belt, so I reckon that's a safe hold; however, the capacity potentially exists for upsets anywhere in Labour territory where (a) the Con+Ukip vote was greater in 2015 than that of the winning candidate, or at least reasonably close to it, and (b) Plaid is not already strong.
If Ukip goes totally tits-up then Torfaen (Labour defence no. 103) may come within range of the Conservatives.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
but hte point is VAT is not even applied to many everyday items like milk and bread. and the wealthy pay much more VAT then the poor in any case.
Isn't it a tax where the middle class pay the highest percentage, even if the ultra wealthy pay more in absolute terms. There is only so much even Croesus can buy.
It just shows what percentage of the total tax take they contribute. It doesn't say whether the share of their income they are paying is going up or down. If the rich are getting a lot richer over time they could be paying a lot more total tax but still less as a proportion of their income.
I criticised Lewis's similar one, partly as I don't believe him it was satire, so though this one I am sure is humorous in intent, I shall criticise also.
I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7 Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4 Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1 Belfast East: Alliance 1/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7 Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11 Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6 Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15 Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7 Bristol West: Green 5/4 Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5 Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1 Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10 Sheffield Central: Green 25/1 Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)
Taking up your lay....?
Laying Kate Hoey?
Robert was offering 10/1 that the LibDems wouldn't win and got several takers at those odds betting that they would. I just wanted to check the terminology as he is the one doing the laying?
Hoey has been disowned by the local Labour party and is seriously toxic after her dalliance with Farage. She used to be seen as a maverick in the mould of Frank Field but not anymore.
Not disowned enough apparently if she is the candidate. Even if automatic reselect surely they could emergency deselect?
That Saga poll rings true in my everyday experience. TM is a very popular prime minister, especially amongst the over 50s, at least in this neck of the woods. That is not to say that people are enamoured with all her policies and ideas, because they ain't, but on balance they trust her to do the right thing by the country.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Fair play, an honest admission that all that 'talking to actual voters' and wanting to 'represent every person in the whole United Kingdom' is just so much Tessybollox.
I think that's a bit harsh. I'm no fan of May, and I encourage politicians to try and gain support even in less than fertile territory for their parties, but they have limited resources (well, they'll probably behave more carefully this time at least), and cold calculation would be there's not much to be gained from the PM going to places where they have no chance, and plenty of chance for very bad optics, it doesn't mean she doesn't want to talk to actual voters or represent every person (the former I'm sure no politician wants, outside of election time anyway), and it is unfair to paint not visiting a place, even a significant place, as the same as thinking wanting to represent it as bollocks, and 'talking to actual voters' does not just mean 'talking to people who don't like me' just as it does not mean 'talking only to people who like me'.
Not all parties can be like the SNP and (as of 2015) be competitive in every seat they contest.
Yeah, well, life and politics are unfair.
The substitute for not having the resources or guts to 'talk to actual voters' (Tessy's own phrase) is to test your policies publicly against those against whom you're standing to get these actual votes, aka televised debates.
If pols are double feart, they'll just have to suck up all the accusations of cowardice, hypocrisy and low calculation that come their way. In any case I'm sure it won't make a jot of difference to the carefully selected, prompted-to-applaud, no-questions-allowed audiences Tessy prefers.
I agree that her tv debate stance is at best deeply cynical and at worst cowardly.
Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.
People.
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.
Labour 'might be able to coalesce around' David Miliband. 'However, the person also needs to be ruthless' Hmm. how about Ed Miliband ;-) ?
That Saga poll rings true in my everyday experience. TM is a very popular prime minister, especially amongst the over 50s, at least in this neck of the woods. That is not to say that people are enamoured with all her policies and ideas, because they ain't, but on balance they trust her to do the right thing by the country.
"Almost six in 10 supported the early election (58%) with 22% remaining on the fence. just 17% opposed the decision to hold an early general election."
This nobody wants an election, its rigged, etc etc etc ain't getting any traction with the oldies.
It appears Brenda from Bristol is in the significant minority among her peers.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Wales, like the North East, has been gradually shifting right for long time, but so many seats had huge Labour leads to begin with, that it's only now becoming noticeable.
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on. However ... what if, for Labour, this is the 2015 General Election Part Two? What started in Scotland now happens in a couple of other regions as well?
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Wales, like the North East, has been gradually shifting right for long time, but so many seats had huge Labour leads to begin with, that it's only now becoming noticeable.
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on. However ... what if, for Labour, this is the 2015 General Election Part Two? What started in Scotland now happens in a couple of other regions as well?
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Wales, like the North East, has been gradually shifting right for long time, but so many seats had huge Labour leads to begin with, that it's only now becoming noticeable.
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.
If Ukip collapses entirely and their voters move more-or-less en masse to the Tories (and the polling evidence to date suggests that the bulk of 2015 Ukip voters who have defected thus far have gone over to Mrs May,) then you can make a plausible case for targetting Sedgefield as a potential Con gain.
On that basis, even Durham North West (Labour majority 10K, not even in the top 100 on their list of defences) is potentially vulnerable.
Comments
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/855761356338999296
The results were broken down by Leave and Remain. The SNP got a broadly neutral reception amongst Remainers, i.e. about as many of those who offered an opinion approved as disapproved.
Amongst Leavers, they were about as welcome as the Black Death. Right down there with Putin.
Is Carswell a sitting UKIP MP?
Increased reliance on a small number of income tax payers follows a longer-run trend driven by above-average increases in top incomes. Since 2008, this reliance has been largely driven by increases in taxes on the rich and tax cuts - mostly via a higher personal allowance - for low- and middle-income taxpayers.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/bns/BN_182.pdf
Housing benefit could be brought down significantly by building more council houses IMO... I think there are also likely to be big hidden benefits from choosing council housing over paying for private rental accommodation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/man-behind-jeremy-corbyns-election-manifesto-bring-three-day/
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/855690637378584576
From a financial point of view if nothing else, it would make good sense to find an excuse to radically cut down their slate of candidates. The Liberal Democrats could afford to shoulder the burden of hundreds of lost deposits in 2015. Ukip can't do that in 2017.
what did he say i wonder?
this mess began when umpire warned crowd about respecting the players and Nastase said "It's not the opera, what's your ----ing problem"
Then he was warned, argued further, got himself ejected. He left court with a "----ing a--hole" to referee and 2 "----ing bitches" to Brits
Aren't the tax policies of the Channel and Cayman Islands decided in house and HMG has no jurisdiction over them?
Not all parties can be like the SNP and (as of 2015) be competitive in every seat they contest.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/06/team-miliband-said-we-must-not-underestimate-eoin-clarke/
Moneyball: was the book that changed baseball built on a false premise?
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/apr/21/moneyball-baseball-oakland-book-billy-beane
Professor Scully continues to tease us.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...
Or Lakshmi Mittal, Lord Noon or Sir Ronald Cohen, since we're asking (Labour donors, by the way...)
I wonder who's paying? Some of the posters feature Disney characters. The Disney CEO, Bob Iger, is a member of Donald Trump's Strategic and Policy Forum.
Certain parties may exert a big push today, without minding that we are supposed to be in "election silence".
Report by BFMTV.
Report in the Daily Mail, in an article that they headline with the words "'More terror attacks will bring civil war' warns Marine Le Pen".
Examples:
Yep - the message does seem to be "Don't vote", which will help the candidates whose supporters are most committed to voting. Meaning Le Pen.
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/855765816729628672
Which, as the BES observes:
Finally, there are also some indications that the SNP vote may be splitting along EU referendum lines. They only managed to retain 55% of their 2015 voters who supported Leave compared with 83% of their voters who supported Remain.
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/has-brexit-broken-british-voting/#.WPtYzFKQ2DU
The substitute for not having the resources or guts to 'talk to actual voters' (Tessy's own phrase) is to test your policies publicly against those against whom you're standing to get these actual votes, aka televised debates.
If pols are double feart, they'll just have to suck up all the accusations of cowardice, hypocrisy and low calculation that come their way. In any case I'm sure it won't make a jot of difference to the carefully selected, prompted-to-applaud, no-questions-allowed audiences Tessy prefers.
Labour is still the governing party in Wales, not a rotted corpse as in Scotland.
In theory, yes: their loyalty is to the Crown (the state), Westminster is the Parliament of the United Kingdom, HMG is the the Government of the United Kingdom, and the Channel Islands most definitely are not in the UK.
But, but, but...
But the PM is not just the formateur of HMG and chair of the Cabinet, she's also a member of the Privy Council and can wield Orders-in-Council. Never forget that the Cabinet ultimately is just a subcommittee of the Privy Council. The armed forces are loyal to the Crown, not Parliament.
This blurring of the lines enables many things to be possible: the example I bring up is the governance of Northern Ireland: it used to have its own government, executive and PM, then it was direct ruled from London, now it has devolved government and two First Ministers. Administratively that's quite difficult to pull off, but the British state managed it.
This was why, even as a fervent Remainer, I was so disappointed when the courts ruled that May had to get Parliament approval for Article 50: it really had nothing to do with them.
So (to answer your question): theoretically they can't do it, but if they were determined enough, practically they could
Government income from VAT, excise duties and Council tax is more than that from income taxes.
So my guess is that the top 1% get 11% of the income and around 16% of taxes overall. They could easily afford much more tax and still live very comfortably.
Edit: ignoring the mixed weather/water metaphors, it strikes me that can apply this analysis with a similar conclusion to Cooper.
Bridgend
Wrexham
Clwyd South
Delyn
Alyn & Deeside
Newport West
Newport East
Cardiff West
Cardiff South & Penarth would all fall to Cons
New @YouGov #GE2017 voting intention data will be in the Sunday Times tomorrow with a Wales only poll to follow on Monday via @roger_scully.
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.fr/2017/04/breaking-strong-economy-narrative.html?m=1
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/politics/press-release/saga/85203/poll-almost-5000-over-50s-shows-resounding-support-prime
Or is that not right anymore?
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
The suggestion, based simply on uniform swing as implied by recent GB-wide polling, is as follows:
To the Tories: Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside, Newport West, Newport East, Cardiff West, Cardiff South & Penarth
To Plaid: Ynys Mon
Cardiff South & Penarth is number 79 on the list of Tory target seats post-2015, requiring an 8% swing (that's so huge that I'm guessing that a Ukip to Con movement must have been factored in in this case.)
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is a Plaid seat inside the language belt, so I reckon that's a safe hold; however, the capacity potentially exists for upsets anywhere in Labour territory where (a) the Con+Ukip vote was greater in 2015 than that of the winning candidate, or at least reasonably close to it, and (b) Plaid is not already strong.
If Ukip goes totally tits-up then Torfaen (Labour defence no. 103) may come within range of the Conservatives.
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/has-brexit-broken-british-voting/#.WPtfqmnyvIV
It just shows what percentage of the total tax take they contribute. It doesn't say whether the share of their income they are paying is going up or down. If the rich are getting a lot richer over time they could be paying a lot more total tax but still less as a proportion of their income.
'However, the person also needs to be ruthless'
Hmm. how about Ed Miliband ;-) ?
This nobody wants an election, its rigged, etc etc etc ain't getting any traction with the oldies.
It appears Brenda from Bristol is in the significant minority among her peers.
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.
LDs 14/1 to win Cheadle? Can't be right, surely.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855733037857779712
On that basis, even Durham North West (Labour majority 10K, not even in the top 100 on their list of defences) is potentially vulnerable.