I've laid Melenchon so that I'm roughly equally up on him, Fillon and Macron at 20x initially stake, with Le Pen at 1.5x initial stake.
And I'm done trading until the first round is over, I think - I trust the polls to the extent that it's any two from four - but not which two.
I recently sold almost all of my stake in Mélenchon (after I studied polls-to-vote stats for left and right for 2012) and invested it Fillon.
So my book is:
* big win if it's Le Pen * tiny win if it's Fillon or Mélenchon * huge win if it's NDA * win if it's Hamon but it won't be * loss if it's Macron or anyone else
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Cold pasties !
Scottish Police, only force in UK forced to pay VAT, just out of spite to take money off Scottish Government.
In 2012 the Scottish Government made Scotland’s police and fire services national rather than regional bodies.
The UK government advised the Scottish government at the time that this change would take them out of the scope of the VAT refunds as they are now funded differently to other police and fire services in Great Britain.'
It's sensible: DfID does a heck of a lot of good, and it's a shame you don't see that.
It's idiotic and anti-Conservative. Foreign aid should be a matter of individual conscience, not state compulsion. There are any number of perfectly good charities in this area to give one's money to. I do not see why the state needs to get involved at all.
And that's aside from the question of how much of our aid budget is wasted, and whether the money could be better spent at home.
I was going to go out canvassing for the Conservatives today, but I don't think I'll bother, despite being in a tight Tory/Labour marginal.
Because state aid is a strategic geo political tool. Build schools and provide teachers with a pro British view point and you raise a generation of children to think favourably to us rather than suicide bomb us.
Realistically, I don't see how we could produce such an effect, even with spending at its current rate.
Given UK is hated or derided across the world, we are wasting our money.
Your usual level of hate-filled splenetic garbage:
The government seems to be unnecessarily intruding on fuel in my view.
It takes roughly £6bn in VAT on all households, including the poorest.
It then distributes Winter Fuel Payments of about £3bn a year to all pensioners, even the wealthiest.
It has a system of Christmas Bonuses, Cold Weather Payments and Winter Fuel Payments which are effectively three social security payments designed to hand out a bit of extra seasonal money when it should streamline them into a single system.
Just checked, it was, but I was thinking of II (forgotten there was a third) and it would've been unlike him.
At that stage, Rome was ****ed anyway.
Not sure I agree with your view of Flavius Phocas. It is true Chosroes made hay and it was a bad time for the Empire, but, from memory, I don't think it was ever facing existential crisis, unlike what followed the Angeli.
Going back to Aetius, there was also Boniface, but the two had a feud and the latter ended up running off (think he joined the Vandals). Not great for Rome, though it was on its knees anyway.
Mr. Sandpit, Basil II did have a bloody odd childhood. Staggering he wasn't murdered by either Nicephorus or John Tzimisces.
It's sensible: DfID does a heck of a lot of good, and it's a shame you don't see that.
It's idiotic and anti-Conservative. Foreign aid should be a matter of individual conscience, not state compulsion. There are any number of perfectly good charities in this area to give one's money to. I do not see why the state needs to get involved at all.
And that's aside from the question of how much of our aid budget is wasted, and whether the money could be better spent at home.
I was going to go out canvassing for the Conservatives today, but I don't think I'll bother, despite being in a tight Tory/Labour marginal.
Because state aid is a strategic geo political tool. Build schools and provide teachers with a pro British view point and you raise a generation of children to think favourably to us rather than suicide bomb us.
Realistically, I don't see how we could produce such an effect, even with spending at its current rate.
Given UK is hated or derided across the world, we are wasting our money.
Your usual level of hate-filled splenetic garbage:
Oh look Mummy - a Nat and facts! Look away son, look away......
SOFT says it all, remember Iran beating our navy with a speedboat and our sailors crying for their ipods, chased out of Iraq , chased out of Afghanistan. Deluded re May and Trump only to find that he has chosen EU over his lapdog for trade, really SOFT comes to mind. Bully no mates.
But I still have a very nice green on NDA if he'd be so kind as to cause a huge upset
I thought NDA's confidence, good looks, financial cleanness, and support for the main planks of Le Pen's programme but without any hint of neo-Nazism in his entourage or background could take him a long way, especially if either Fillon or Le Pen's support started to erode. Also he's male and while Le Pen's being female isn't an issue in France that may not be how it looks from Moscow. Get past 7-8% - and he's been at 7% before - and the way would have been clear for him to climb further. His coup when he was excluded from the first debate and then walked out of a studio run by the company that had excluded him, and then got more people watching his walkout on Facebook than watched the debate, was brilliant. His poll score more than doubled within a few days.
But he didn't manage to follow it up. I cut him some slack for saying that his appearance on the comedy show on the night of the debate was akin to De Gaulle's June 1940 announcement from London, when the general used the only means of addressing France that was available to him: radio. That reference annoyed a few people, but didn't lose him any votes. It's a bit Trumpian. His "ethical charter" was perhaps a good idea, but making it into a list of 10-15 points and printing them out on a huge board that he got photographed standing next to was stupid. Ditto when he said it was better to vote for him and lose than to vote for Fillon and win.
It was far better when earlier, asked who he'd support in the second round, he said "I'm the candidate you should vote for if you don't want there to be a second round". That must have got him an attention spike in a lot of people's minds.
More recently when he was asked if he'd accept the premiership from Le Pen, he said "But I'll be the one who chooses the prime minister". Strong message.
In 2012 he made the mistake of saying that if he was elected president he'd appoint Le Pen as his PM. This time, he has named who he would like to appoint to other major ministerial posts, but not to the premiership.
NDA tries hard and he has a bit of a scattergun approach, but you only need one or two spectaculars. And his campaign manager Laurent Jacobelli does know about TV.
So, @ThreeQuidder, who knows what might happen today and tomorrow? If he gets into R2 then the Elysée is an open goal - and you and I can celebrate being in the money
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Clothing and sanitary products are VAT-able as well, but yes- as a general rule, essential products are exempted.
The abolition of VAT on fuel and sanitary products must form part of any post-Brexit budget.
Why? Using the tax system to encourage people to bathe more seems like government overreach.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Cold pasties !
Scottish Police, only force in UK forced to pay VAT, just out of spite to take money off Scottish Government.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Clothing and sanitary products are VAT-able as well, but yes- as a general rule, essential products are exempted.
The abolition of VAT on fuel and sanitary products must form part of any post-Brexit budget.
Why? Using the tax system to encourage people to bathe more seems like government overreach.
Tampons should be taxed?
They already are.
Yes, I know. I'm suggesting the tax should be abolished.
One aspect that has received very little attention is that the effect of calling this early election will be to slightly reduce the length of the next Parliament.. To quote Section 1 of the FTPA 2011 : ‘polling days would be on the first Thursday in May in the fifth calendar year’
This will mean that the election due in 2022 would be held on May 5th that year with Parliament being dissolved at the end of March 2022. Effectively, therefore, on June 8th we will be electing a Parliament which will not last more than 4.75 years.
Good point. Although I think we can safely say that FTPA will be junked in next Parliament.
Why? As seen if anyone wants an early election it is still possible, while ensuring that no one can complain that you are dragging things out if you decide to go for the full five years.
Anything that encourages longer term thinking is to be encouraged. Anyway, leaving aside current players, why should the PM of the day have the big advantage of deciding the timing of the election?
It was a bluff, that's now been called. It was designed to stop the Tories cutting loose during 2010-15, but now we see that since the opposition has to vote for an election Cameron could have done so at any time. Luckily for the LibDems, Cameron rather liked being in coalition.
They may as well leave it on the statute book, as others say above.
It's sensible: DfID does a heck of a lot of good, and it's a shame you don't see that.
It's idiotic and anti-Conservative. Foreign aid should be a matter of individual conscience, not state compulsion. There are any number of perfectly good charities in this area to give one's money to. I do not see why the state needs to get involved at all.
And that's aside from the question of how much of our aid budget is wasted, and whether the money could be better spent at home.
I was going to go out canvassing for the Conservatives today, but I don't think I'll bother, despite being in a tight Tory/Labour marginal.
Because state aid is a strategic geo political tool. Build schools and provide teachers with a pro British view point and you raise a generation of children to think favourably to us rather than suicide bomb us.
Realistically, I don't see how we could produce such an effect, even with spending at its current rate.
Given UK is hated or derided across the world, we are wasting our money.
Your usual level of hate-filled splenetic garbage:
I also see Clive Lewis is defending is flow chart tweet - that only people who don;t care about others should vote Tory' as satire.
Sure it is, Clive, I believe you. That is, I believe you may well believe some Tories care about others, but you certainly want to encourage supporters to genuinely consider it in such simplistic, moral terms, because it helps you get elected. Pathetic.
I suppose it's better than "I was hacked", not much better mind.
Another effect of calling this election is that it means that the Scottish Parliament will last the statutory 4 years rather than 5.
Will it? I asked that a while back but nobody replied. It seems according to Wikipedia though that a bill setting the next Scottish Parliament election as being held in 2021 has already received royal assent so it will last for 5. But I suppose that the election after next will be in 2025 rather than 2026 as there will be no 2025 General Election.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Clothing and sanitary products are VAT-able as well, but yes- as a general rule, essential products are exempted.
The abolition of VAT on fuel and sanitary products must form part of any post-Brexit budget.
Why? Using the tax system to encourage people to bathe more seems like government overreach.
Tampons should be taxed?
They already are.
Yes, I know. I'm suggesting the tax should be abolished.
But I still have a very nice green on NDA if he'd be so kind as to cause a huge upset
I thought NDA's confidence, good looks, financial cleanness, and support for the main planks of Le Pen's programme but without any hint of neo-Nazism in his entourage or background would take him a long way, especially if either Fillon or Le Pen's support started to erode. Also he's male and while Le Pen's being female isn't an issue in France that may not be how it looks from Moscow. Get past 7-8% - and he's been at 7% before - and the way would have been clear for him to climb further. His coup when he was excluded from the first debate and then walked out of a studio run by the company that had excluded him, and then got more people watching his walkout on Facebook than watched the debate, was brilliant. His poll score more than doubled within a few days.
But he didn't manage to follow it up. I cut him some slack for saying that his appearance on the comedy show on the night of the debate was akin to De Gaulle's June 1940 announcement from London, when the general used the only means of addressing France that was available to him: radio. That reference annoyed a few people, but didn't lose him any votes. It's a bit Trumpian. His "ethical charter" was perhaps a good idea, but making it into a list of 10-15 points and printing them out on a huge board that he got photographed standing next to was stupid. Ditto when he said it was better to vote for him and lose than to vote for Fillon and win.
It was far better when earlier, asked who he'd support in the second round, he said "I'm the candidate you should vote for if you don't want there to be a second round". That must have got him an attention spike in a lot of people's minds.
More recently when he was asked if he'd accept the premiership from Le Pen, he said "But I'll be the one who chooses the prime minister". Strong message.
In 2012 he made the mistake of saying that if he was elected president he'd appoint Le Pen as his PM. This time, he has named who he would like to appoint to other major ministerial posts, but not to the premiership.
NDA tries hard and he has a bit of a scattergun approach, but you only need one or two spectaculars. And his campaign manager Laurent Jacobelli does know about TV.
So, @ThreeQuidder, who knows what might happen today and tomorrow? If he gets into R2 then the Elysée is an open goal - and you and I can celebrate being in the money .)
I too win biggly on NDA, but very unlikely. Melenchon is my biggest possible winner. Although I would gladly give up the money to avoid the chaos of a Le Pen vs Melenchon R2.
Wow, so the four biggest items on the budget, accounting for 69% of government spending, are *all* underestimated by the public. Only the fifth item, debt interest at 7%, is accurately known. All the smaller items, accounting for only 24% in total, are overestimated in their significance.
TL:DR; spending isn't coming down until the welfare bill does.
For better or worse people think of unemployment benefits when they hear welfare.
As an exercise go to http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending and try to guess how the welfare budget is broken down. Even knowing that unemployment is overestimated, and having been warned by me, i bet you'll still over estimate it!
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Cold pasties !
Scottish Police, only force in UK forced to pay VAT, just out of spite to take money off Scottish Government.
In 2012 the Scottish Government made Scotland’s police and fire services national rather than regional bodies.
The UK government advised the Scottish government at the time that this change would take them out of the scope of the VAT refunds as they are now funded differently to other police and fire services in Great Britain.'
It's sensible: DfID does a heck of a lot of good, and it's a shame you don't see that.
It's idiotic and anti-Conservative. Foreign aid should be a matter of individual conscience, not state compulsion. There are any number of perfectly good charities in this area to give one's money to. I do not see why the state needs to get involved at all.
And that's aside from the question of how much of our aid budget is wasted, and whether the money could be better spent at home.
I was going to go out canvassing for the Conservatives today, but I don't think I'll bother, despite being in a tight Tory/Labour marginal.
Because state aid is a strategic geo political tool. Build schools and provide teachers with a pro British view point and you raise a generation of children to think favourably to us rather than suicide bomb us.
Realistically, I don't see how we could produce such an effect, even with spending at its current rate.
Given UK is hated or derided across the world, we are wasting our money.
Your usual level of hate-filled splenetic garbage:
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Cold pasties !
Scottish Police, only force in UK forced to pay VAT, just out of spite to take money off Scottish Government.
In 2012 the Scottish Government made Scotland’s police and fire services national rather than regional bodies.
The UK government advised the Scottish government at the time that this change would take them out of the scope of the VAT refunds as they are now funded differently to other police and fire services in Great Britain.'
Wow, so the four biggest items on the budget, accounting for 69% of government spending, are *all* underestimated by the public. Only the fifth item, debt interest at 7%, is accurately known. All the smaller items, accounting for only 24% in total, are overestimated in their significance.
TL:DR; spending isn't coming down until the welfare bill does.
For better or worse people think of unemployment benefits when they hear welfare.
As an exercise go to http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending and try to guess how the welfare budget is broken down. Even knowing that unemployment is overestimated, and having been warned by me, i bet you'll still over estimate it!
Unemployment benefit is easy to work out, as they publish the number of claimants every quarter. To one significant figure it's £60 a week, £3k a year x 1m people = £3bn a year.
It's the housing benefit and tax credits that come along with UB, where the serious money is spent.
It's sensible: DfID does a heck of a lot of good, and it's a shame you don't see that.
It's idiotic and anti-Conservative. Foreign aid should be a matter of individual conscience, not state compulsion. There are any number of perfectly good charities in this area to give one's money to. I do not see why the state needs to get involved at all.
And that's aside from the question of how much of our aid budget is wasted, and whether the money could be better spent at home.
I was going to go out canvassing for the Conservatives today, but I don't think I'll bother, despite being in a tight Tory/Labour marginal.
Because state aid is a strategic geo political tool. Build schools and provide teachers with a pro British view point and you raise a generation of children to think favourably to us rather than suicide bomb us.
Realistically, I don't see how we could produce such an effect, even with spending at its current rate.
Given UK is hated or derided across the world, we are wasting our money.
Your usual level of hate-filled splenetic garbage:
Wow, so the four biggest items on the budget, accounting for 69% of government spending, are *all* underestimated by the public. Only the fifth item, debt interest at 7%, is accurately known. All the smaller items, accounting for only 24% in total, are overestimated in their significance.
TL:DR; spending isn't coming down until the welfare bill does.
For better or worse people think of unemployment benefits when they hear welfare.
As an exercise go to http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending and try to guess how the welfare budget is broken down. Even knowing that unemployment is overestimated, and having been warned by me, i bet you'll still over estimate it!
Unemployment benefit is easy to work out, as they publish the number of claimants every quarter. To one significant figure it's £60 a week, £3k a year x 1m people = £3bn a year.
It's the housing benefit and tax credits that come along with UB, where the serious money is spent.
Actually to be pedantic, it is JobSeekers Allowance and is £73 for over 25 year olds.
As we're on the subject of the French election (well that, and VAT, Labour meltdown part six), I think it's worth thinking about late switchers.
Looking at the opinion poll data from 2012 (here), we see that every candidate polling less than 15% underperformed.
Why? I suspect it's because people get into the polling booth and decide whether or not they want to waste their vote on a candidate who's unlikely to make it through to the run-off.
If we assume the same happens again, that suggests that Hamon (8%) and NDA (4%) are likely to see their votes drop, perhaps by 2% and 1% respectively.
Where do those votes go?
In the case of Hamon, we have to assume they will split between Melenchon and Macron. I'm going to assume 66:33, although that's pretty arbitrary. For NDA, I'll assume they go 50:50 between Fillon and Le Pen. (Although at a push, I suspect they're more likely to go for Fillon.)
So, we need to add 1.3% to Melenchon, 0.7% to Macron, and 0.5% apiece to Fillon and Le Pen.
This increases (albeit marginally) the likelihood that Melenchon makes it through to the final two. Given he is by far the highest priced of the runners and riders, and has been the guy with the momentum, he's probably worth a small punt here, if only for a trade.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Cold pasties !
Scottish Police, only force in UK forced to pay VAT, just out of spite to take money off Scottish Government.
In 2012 the Scottish Government made Scotland’s police and fire services national rather than regional bodies.
The UK government advised the Scottish government at the time that this change would take them out of the scope of the VAT refunds as they are now funded differently to other police and fire services in Great Britain.'
You just confirm the westminster double standards.
That the Scottish Government doesn't listen, then blames someone else for its mistakes....
Yes, ok for every other police force in the UK, usual Tory fairness at play Theresa.
Every other Police Force in the UK is under local authority control - but that's not good enough for the SNP - it has to be under central government control in Scotland.
Surely the ENORMOUS efficiency savings more than off-set the VAT?
Corbynism has contracted into a close-minded cabal, an irrational cult. It is not the antisemitism he’s unleashed, his pro-Putin anti-West tilt, inertia on Syria, incoherence on Trident, Brexit, Scotland. It is not his laziness in taking lieu days, his utter invisibility when children are gassed or Westminster attacked. What wearies the soul is his stupidity.
I can’t think of a better word for employing a press office that can’t issue a prompt or accurate press release. Or for getting halfwits like Dawn Butler, MP for Brent Central, to declare Theresa May has rigged democracy by calling an election — yes, the election she voted for. Or for selecting a shadow cabinet you wouldn’t trust with your council bin collection. Imagine such stupidity in high office, the same coterie chosen for blind loyalty over talent, dealing with Angela Merkel, brokering Brexit, restraining a bomb-happy Trump.
I've laid Melenchon so that I'm roughly equally up on him, Fillon and Macron at 20x initially stake, with Le Pen at 1.5x initial stake.
And I'm done trading until the first round is over, I think - I trust the polls to the extent that it's any two from four - but not which two.
I recently sold almost all of my stake in Mélenchon (after I studied polls-to-vote stats for left and right for 2012) and invested it Fillon.
So my book is:
* big win if it's Le Pen * tiny win if it's Fillon or Mélenchon * huge win if it's NDA * win if it's Hamon but it won't be * loss if it's Macron or anyone else
Wow, so the four biggest items on the budget, accounting for 69% of government spending, are *all* underestimated by the public. Only the fifth item, debt interest at 7%, is accurately known. All the smaller items, accounting for only 24% in total, are overestimated in their significance.
TL:DR; spending isn't coming down until the welfare bill does.
For better or worse people think of unemployment benefits when they hear welfare.
As an exercise go to http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending and try to guess how the welfare budget is broken down. Even knowing that unemployment is overestimated, and having been warned by me, i bet you'll still over estimate it!
Unemployment benefit is easy to work out, as they publish the number of claimants every quarter. To one significant figure it's £60 a week, £3k a year x 1m people = £3bn a year.
It's the housing benefit and tax credits that come along with UB, where the serious money is spent.
If it is Melenchon vs Le Pen then our GE will be a minor sideshow compared to the euro and bond market meltdown.
If it's Macron vs Fillon, then the Euro and the French stock market will absolutely fly on Monday, especially given the French PMIs that came out on Friday and which have been somewhat overshadowed by politics.
Corbynism has contracted into a close-minded cabal, an irrational cult. It is not the antisemitism he’s unleashed, his pro-Putin anti-West tilt, inertia on Syria, incoherence on Trident, Brexit, Scotland. It is not his laziness in taking lieu days, his utter invisibility when children are gassed or Westminster attacked. What wearies the soul is his stupidity.
I can’t think of a better word for employing a press office that can’t issue a prompt or accurate press release. Or for getting halfwits like Dawn Butler, MP for Brent Central, to declare Theresa May has rigged democracy by calling an election — yes, the election she voted for. Or for selecting a shadow cabinet you wouldn’t trust with your council bin collection. Imagine such stupidity in high office, the same coterie chosen for blind loyalty over talent, dealing with Angela Merkel, brokering Brexit, restraining a bomb-happy Trump.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Cold pasties !
Scottish Police, only force in UK forced to pay VAT, just out of spite to take money off Scottish Government.
In 2012 the Scottish Government made Scotland’s police and fire services national rather than regional bodies.
The UK government advised the Scottish government at the time that this change would take them out of the scope of the VAT refunds as they are now funded differently to other police and fire services in Great Britain.'
Because they aren't centralised, they are run by local councils. Them's the laws.
And there are good practical reasons why they are not centralised.
Police Scotland were called to an incident on Great Western Road. Central control duly despatched officers to Glasgow. Sadly the incident happened in Aberdeen.
I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7 Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4 Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1 Belfast East: Alliance 1/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7 Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11 Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6 Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15 Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7 Bristol West: Green 5/4 Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5 Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1 Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10 Sheffield Central: Green 25/1 Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
SNP bashing is a guaranteed vote-winner in the rest of the country. Theresa May should do it as often as possible, especially because attempts by Labour to do similar (even when made) sound inauthentic. First and foremost, because Corbyn (and most of the Far Left and their Champagne Socialist fellow travellers) want to break up Britain. And secondly, some of the more wildly optimistic ones think they might need the SNP's votes to support their Government if they somehow fall just short of an overall majority (no laughing at the back please.)
'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
Because they aren't centralised, they are run by local councils. Them's the laws.
And there are good practical reasons why they are not centralised.
Police Scotland were called to an incident on Great Western Road. Central control duly despatched officers to Glasgow. Sadly the incident happened in Aberdeen.
Blimey, makes my local force look competent. At least they turned up the last (and only) time I called, it took eight hours but they came to the right place.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.
Cold pasties !
Scottish Police, only force in UK forced to pay VAT, just out of spite to take money off Scottish Government.
In 2012 the Scottish Government made Scotland’s police and fire services national rather than regional bodies.
The UK government advised the Scottish government at the time that this change would take them out of the scope of the VAT refunds as they are now funded differently to other police and fire services in Great Britain.'
You just confirm the westminster double standards.
That the Scottish Government doesn't listen, then blames someone else for its mistakes....
Yes, ok for every other police force in the UK, usual Tory fairness at play Theresa.
For every local police force in the UK. If the SNP don't want local forces then that's their choice. Could always go back to having local forces in which case there'd be no VAT again.
Before I go , Vicente is my horse for the Scottish National today , Premier Bond and Southfield Royale for places, usual bet at your own peril applies. 3.55PM today , nice sunny day for it, if it lasts.
Before I go , Vicente is my horse for the Scottish National today , Premier Bond and Southfield Royale for places, usual bet at your own peril applies. 3.55PM today , nice sunny day for it, if it lasts.
It gave me a great run in the Grand National..... not!
I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7 Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4 Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1 Belfast East: Alliance 1/1 Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7 Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11 Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6 Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15 Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7 Bristol West: Green 5/4 Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5 Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1 Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10 Sheffield Central: Green 25/1 Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)
'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
SOFT says it all, remember Iran beating our navy with a speedboat and our sailors crying for their ipods,
I was profoundly depressed for a very long time when I left the Royal Navy. That episode was one of the steps in my recovery as it helped me to see that the RN no longer really existed as the fighting force I knew and loved.
'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
Because they aren't centralised, they are run by local councils. Them's the laws.
And there are good practical reasons why they are not centralised.
Police Scotland were called to an incident on Great Western Road. Central control duly despatched officers to Glasgow. Sadly the incident happened in Aberdeen.
It gets worse:
A seriously injured woman may have lain undiscovered next to her dead boyfriend in their car for up to three days in central Scotland, after police failed to respond to a report of a motorway crash.
Police Scotland confirmed late on Wednesday that it was investigating an accident in which a man was pronounced dead at the scene and a woman was left in a critical condition in hospital.
Labour candidates struggling to defend their seats don't actually want Corbyn to come visiting, so he has to have a reason to go elsewhere. We were speculating about this on Thursday.
Oh, indeed. The piece has something to say about that as well:
Even as leader Jeremy Corbyn campaigns for victory on June 8, officials in the party’s headquarters see him as a liability and are focused instead on minimizing the scale of defeat, according to two people familiar with the strategies, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Corbyn will tour districts the party needs to win to gain a majority in Parliament, as staff at headquarters, who control party funds, plan the defense of seats they think the party might be able to hold against an onslaught from May’s Conservatives. That could mean only those with majorities of 5,000 votes or more, according to one person.
“Normally you would expect leadership tours to tally closely with the party’s list of target seats, but Corbyn’s not the electoral asset you would expect leaders to be,” Justin Fisher, professor of politics at Brunel University, said in a telephone interview. “The challenge Labour faces is focusing their campaign on the local contests rather than the national party.”
Send the leader off to be laughed at in Telford and Corby, whilst scrambling to save the likes of Jon Cruddas and Sue Hayman from the axe. Again, sounds wholly plausible.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
SNP bashing is a guaranteed vote-winner in the rest of the country. Theresa May should do it as often as possible, especially because attempts by Labour to do similar (even when made) sound inauthentic. First and foremost, because Corbyn (and most of the Far Left and their Champagne Socialist fellow travellers) want to break up Britain. And secondly, some of the more wildly optimistic ones think they might need the SNP's votes to support their Government if they somehow fall just short of an overall majority (no laughing at the back please.)
Corbyn is anti Sindy. He's in favour of a united Ireland, though. Consistency isn't a strong point.
The English left still think they can win with Scottish votes, with no understanding of why they were lost in the first place. SLab despise the SNP and would rather cosy up to the Tories on many issues.
SNP bashing is a guaranteed vote-winner in the rest of the country. Theresa May should do it as often as possible, especially because attempts by Labour to do similar (even when made) sound inauthentic. First and foremost, because Corbyn (and most of the Far Left and their Champagne Socialist fellow travellers) want to break up Britain. And secondly, some of the more wildly optimistic ones think they might need the SNP's votes to support their Government if they somehow fall just short of an overall majority (no laughing at the back please.)
Mixed group of middle-class (U3a) OAP’s yesterday; was quite surprised at the anti-Sturgeon feeling. 8 of us, 4 hostile, and I mean hostile, 2 neutral -ish and 2 (uncluding me) ‘quite like”. How are we voting otherwise? 3 Left or Centre Left, one anti-Corbyn, one possibly UKIP, 2 didn’t say, 1 Tory.
Wow, so the four biggest items on the budget, accounting for 69% of government spending, are *all* underestimated by the public. Only the fifth item, debt interest at 7%, is accurately known. All the smaller items, accounting for only 24% in total, are overestimated in their significance.
TL:DR; spending isn't coming down until the welfare bill does.
For better or worse people think of unemployment benefits when they hear welfare.
As an exercise go to http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending and try to guess how the welfare budget is broken down. Even knowing that unemployment is overestimated, and having been warned by me, i bet you'll still over estimate it!
Thanks for posting that link, Mr. Rkrkrk. The interesting, maybe frightening is a better word, is that the welfare bill is now largely detached from economic performance. That is to say it doesn't matter if the economy is growing or in recession the welfare bill is only ever going to go up.
So either taxes continue to rise or even bigger cuts are made elsewhere. We cannot keep cutting law enforcement and defence and Health and overseas aid are ring fenced to the extent that they will also continue to climb. How high can Hammond push taxes?
Because they aren't centralised, they are run by local councils. Them's the laws.
And there are good practical reasons why they are not centralised.
Police Scotland were called to an incident on Great Western Road. Central control duly despatched officers to Glasgow. Sadly the incident happened in Aberdeen.
Blimey, makes my local force look competent. At least they turned up the last (and only) time I called, it took eight hours but they came to the right place.
Or they spent 8 hours going to the wrong places first.
I feel like maybe they need a bit more than that to go with?
Not at the moment, Ruth has a perfectly clear strategy which is to coalesce the unionist vote. Once she has done that she can move on to other ground.
One trick pony , no chance
A Scottish Nationalist derides the Scottish Tories as a one-issue party for banging on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on about the topic of separatism.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
SNP bashing is a guaranteed vote-winner in the rest of the country. Theresa May should do it as often as possible, especially because attempts by Labour to do similar (even when made) sound inauthentic. First and foremost, because Corbyn (and most of the Far Left and their Champagne Socialist fellow travellers) want to break up Britain. And secondly, some of the more wildly optimistic ones think they might need the SNP's votes to support their Government if they somehow fall just short of an overall majority (no laughing at the back please.)
Mixed group of middle-class (U3a) OAP’s yesterday; was quite surprised at the anti-Sturgeon feeling. 8 of us, 4 hostile, and I mean hostile, 2 neutral -ish and 2 (uncluding me) ‘quite like”. How are we voting otherwise? 3 Left or Centre Left, one anti-Corbyn, one possibly UKIP, 2 didn’t say, 1 Tory.
I feel like maybe they need a bit more than that to go with?
I have to give them credit for actually mentioning Conservatives on the poster this time but still banging on about the Independece Referendum as always. Single policy party.
Comments
So my book is:
* big win if it's Le Pen
* tiny win if it's Fillon or Mélenchon
* huge win if it's NDA
* win if it's Hamon but it won't be
* loss if it's Macron or anyone else
https://order-order.com/2017/04/22/david-miliband-phoning-around-veteran-labour-mps/
It takes roughly £6bn in VAT on all households, including the poorest.
It then distributes Winter Fuel Payments of about £3bn a year to all pensioners, even the wealthiest.
It has a system of Christmas Bonuses, Cold Weather Payments and Winter Fuel Payments which are effectively three social security payments designed to hand out a bit of extra seasonal money when it should streamline them into a single system.
Some reform wouldn’t go amiss.
Just checked, it was, but I was thinking of II (forgotten there was a third) and it would've been unlike him.
At that stage, Rome was ****ed anyway.
Not sure I agree with your view of Flavius Phocas. It is true Chosroes made hay and it was a bad time for the Empire, but, from memory, I don't think it was ever facing existential crisis, unlike what followed the Angeli.
Going back to Aetius, there was also Boniface, but the two had a feud and the latter ended up running off (think he joined the Vandals). Not great for Rome, though it was on its knees anyway.
Mr. Sandpit, Basil II did have a bloody odd childhood. Staggering he wasn't murdered by either Nicephorus or John Tzimisces.
But he didn't manage to follow it up. I cut him some slack for saying that his appearance on the comedy show on the night of the debate was akin to De Gaulle's June 1940 announcement from London, when the general used the only means of addressing France that was available to him: radio. That reference annoyed a few people, but didn't lose him any votes. It's a bit Trumpian. His "ethical charter" was perhaps a good idea, but making it into a list of 10-15 points and printing them out on a huge board that he got photographed standing next to was stupid. Ditto when he said it was better to vote for him and lose than to vote for Fillon and win.
It was far better when earlier, asked who he'd support in the second round, he said "I'm the candidate you should vote for if you don't want there to be a second round". That must have got him an attention spike in a lot of people's minds.
More recently when he was asked if he'd accept the premiership from Le Pen, he said "But I'll be the one who chooses the prime minister". Strong message.
In 2012 he made the mistake of saying that if he was elected president he'd appoint Le Pen as his PM. This time, he has named who he would like to appoint to other major ministerial posts, but not to the premiership.
NDA tries hard and he has a bit of a scattergun approach, but you only need one or two spectaculars. And his campaign manager Laurent Jacobelli does know about TV.
So, @ThreeQuidder, who knows what might happen today and tomorrow? If he gets into R2 then the Elysée is an open goal - and you and I can celebrate being in the money
But if Melenchon loses round 2 to everyone... ?
Thomson not standing so forgoes her redundancy pay.....
They may as well leave it on the statute book, as others say above.
So class, maths, if milk cost 50p a pint before VAT and VAT is 20%, how much does a pint of milk cost in the shops?
Miss miss my dad says milk doesn't have VAT on it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Scottish_Parliament_election
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
As an exercise go to http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending and try to guess how the welfare budget is broken down. Even knowing that unemployment is overestimated, and having been warned by me, i bet you'll still over estimate it!
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/855753406685884416
"We will make sure that a fat cat like Costa pays VAT on its milk"
Or have I missed something?
It's the housing benefit and tax credits that come along with UB, where the serious money is spent.
https://twitter.com/agriffithsmp/status/855744955058409473
Looking at the opinion poll data from 2012 (here), we see that every candidate polling less than 15% underperformed.
Why? I suspect it's because people get into the polling booth and decide whether or not they want to waste their vote on a candidate who's unlikely to make it through to the run-off.
If we assume the same happens again, that suggests that Hamon (8%) and NDA (4%) are likely to see their votes drop, perhaps by 2% and 1% respectively.
Where do those votes go?
In the case of Hamon, we have to assume they will split between Melenchon and Macron. I'm going to assume 66:33, although that's pretty arbitrary. For NDA, I'll assume they go 50:50 between Fillon and Le Pen. (Although at a push, I suspect they're more likely to go for Fillon.)
So, we need to add 1.3% to Melenchon, 0.7% to Macron, and 0.5% apiece to Fillon and Le Pen.
This increases (albeit marginally) the likelihood that Melenchon makes it through to the final two. Given he is by far the highest priced of the runners and riders, and has been the guy with the momentum, he's probably worth a small punt here, if only for a trade.
Surely the ENORMOUS efficiency savings more than off-set the VAT?
Corbynism has contracted into a close-minded cabal, an irrational cult. It is not the antisemitism he’s unleashed, his pro-Putin anti-West tilt, inertia on Syria, incoherence on Trident, Brexit, Scotland. It is not his laziness in taking lieu days, his utter invisibility when children are gassed or Westminster attacked. What wearies the soul is his stupidity.
I can’t think of a better word for employing a press office that can’t issue a prompt or accurate press release. Or for getting halfwits like Dawn Butler, MP for Brent Central, to declare Theresa May has rigged democracy by calling an election — yes, the election she voted for. Or for selecting a shadow cabinet you wouldn’t trust with your council bin collection. Imagine such stupidity in high office, the same coterie chosen for blind loyalty over talent, dealing with Angela Merkel, brokering Brexit, restraining a bomb-happy Trump.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cd1c078e-26c1-11e7-bc20-132b509ff5ce
your kidsme nightmares...BVA (20th-21st April)
Le Pen 23%
Macron 23%
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 19.5%
https://staticswww.bva-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Intentions-de-vote-Vague-19-POP2017-21-avril-2017-Présentation.pdf
Odoxa (21st April)
Macron 24.5%
Le Pen 23%
Fillon 19%
Melenchon 19%
http://www.odoxa.fr/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Intention-de-vote-presidentielle-Odoxa-LePoint_210417.pdf
Police Scotland were called to an incident on Great Western Road. Central control duly despatched officers to Glasgow. Sadly the incident happened in Aberdeen.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7
Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4
Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1
Belfast East: Alliance 1/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7
Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11
Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6
Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15
Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7
Bristol West: Green 5/4
Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5
Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1
Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10
Sheffield Central: Green 25/1
Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855753782663274496
Telegraph readers are weird.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)
So the only people who are allowed to talk about the Union are the SNP in Scotland?
A seriously injured woman may have lain undiscovered next to her dead boyfriend in their car for up to three days in central Scotland, after police failed to respond to a report of a motorway crash.
Police Scotland confirmed late on Wednesday that it was investigating an accident in which a man was pronounced dead at the scene and a woman was left in a critical condition in hospital.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/08/investigation-police-couple-lain-car-wreck-scotland-days-bannockburn
The woman died in hospital.
Even as leader Jeremy Corbyn campaigns for victory on June 8, officials in the party’s headquarters see him as a liability and are focused instead on minimizing the scale of defeat, according to two people familiar with the strategies, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Corbyn will tour districts the party needs to win to gain a majority in Parliament, as staff at headquarters, who control party funds, plan the defense of seats they think the party might be able to hold against an onslaught from May’s Conservatives. That could mean only those with majorities of 5,000 votes or more, according to one person.
“Normally you would expect leadership tours to tally closely with the party’s list of target seats, but Corbyn’s not the electoral asset you would expect leaders to be,” Justin Fisher, professor of politics at Brunel University, said in a telephone interview. “The challenge Labour faces is focusing their campaign on the local contests rather than the national party.”
Send the leader off to be laughed at in Telford and Corby, whilst scrambling to save the likes of Jon Cruddas and Sue Hayman from the axe. Again, sounds wholly plausible.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
The English left still think they can win with Scottish votes, with no understanding of why they were lost in the first place. SLab despise the SNP and would rather cosy up to the Tories on many issues.
Which is why they are where they are i.e. ruined.
How are we voting otherwise? 3 Left or Centre Left, one anti-Corbyn, one possibly UKIP, 2 didn’t say, 1 Tory.
So either taxes continue to rise or even bigger cuts are made elsewhere. We cannot keep cutting law enforcement and defence and Health and overseas aid are ring fenced to the extent that they will also continue to climb. How high can Hammond push taxes?
Or they spent 8 hours going to the wrong places first.
Words fail me.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39678794
one possibly UKIP, 2 didn’t say, 1 Tory
So that's four for TMay's Tories then.