This suggests that their previous survey (with a 9% Tory lead IIRC) was an outlier, overcounting Labour and Ukip and undercounting the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. These new results are much more consistent with other recent surveys.
What do we do if the polls only show a 10% lead for the Tories? Start booking flights?
That would certainly sow some panic in the ranks. But the Tories are right to be a little nervous about all this. Theresa's huge poll leads were due to her political honeymoon. Perhaps this honeymoon was premised purely on her not being a tricksy politician prone to smart-alec schemes.
Anything's possible in theory - but there's no sign of it at all yet.
This suggests that their previous survey (with a 9% Tory lead IIRC) was an outlier, overcounting Labour and Ukip and undercounting the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. These new results are much more consistent with other recent surveys.
So Tories up 8% on the last general election, Labour down 4%, LDs up 3% and UKIP down 4%
This suggests that their previous survey (with a 9% Tory lead IIRC) was an outlier, overcounting Labour and Ukip and undercounting the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. These new results are much more consistent with other recent surveys.
Or....The others will show even bigger leads..... ;-)
As well as the forthcoming Welsh poll, it looks like we may have our first set of Scottish data of the campaign tomorrow.
Polls for Scotland, Wales and UK-wide this evening I assume?
First proper PB #PollWatch of the election.
Beers and popcorn on standby. Hopefully we can avoid too many meltdowns.
20%+ leads nationally - nothing has changed.
The 20% leads came out of nowhere a week or so ago, with sudden jumps of +4. The Tories might be starting from their high point.
The Tories might be starting from their high point.
So might Labour.
Possibly, but given they started some on 23/24, I doubt it.
Given that that far exceeds their leader's ratings, why?
The loyalty to the Labour brand exceeds that of the leader. Or so I will be betting. Outside of an SLAB situation, low 20s is a stretch even if Idi Amin were the leader.
I reckon that UKIP will have destroyed lots of that loyalty, and Jeremy 'best mates with the IRA' will finish off the job.
May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters (49%) to run the nation’s finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election (42%). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election (21%).
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
I'm sure the Spanish tourist industry will be thrilled
Visas are an issue for Schengen, not the EU. Rights to reside (study, work, retire) are an issue for each individual nation. Verhofstadt is, as usual, talking out of his...
And which category will have the biggest impact on most Brits? Needing a tourist visa to travel or needing a work or student visa to reside?
Tourist visas won't be an issue, the Schengen zone already accommodates nations of the following countries without a visa:
Only the nationals of the following non-EEA countries do not need a visa for entry into the Schengen Area: Albania*, Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Australia, Bahamas, Barbados, Bosnia and Herzegovina*, Brazil, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Japan, Macedonia*, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Monaco, Montenegro*, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, San Marino, Serbia*/**, Seychelles, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan*** (Republic of China), United States, Uruguay, Vatican City, Venezuela, additionally persons holding British National (Overseas), Hong Kong SAR or Macau SAR passports. http://wikitravel.org/en/Travel_in_the_Schengen_Zone
There's no way France and Spain will allow anything different for UK Nationals. Ditto with the right to reside, Brits living in the EU are not a drain on the state in which they live. All I think might change is that the E111 will no longer work and we will need proper health insurance when travelling - and set against that the UK will be able to refuse NHS treatment for non-UK citizens at its discretion.
There is a risk, fortunately a very small one, that the British government imposes strict tourist visa requirements on EU nationals coming to the UK, and there is a tit-for-tat retaliation.
I would suggest that risk is non existent. The UK government wants the process to be as smooth as possible. They won't be the ones taking action like that.
On almost every count, May wins. Some 49% of all voters now approve of the way she is running the country, against just 18% who express approval for Corbyn’s leadership.
The Tories are trusted by almost three times as many voters (38%) to handle Brexit negotiations most effectively, compared with 13% for Labour. Even among Remain voters, there is support from many for the way May is handling Brexit. Among Remainers, 36% think she is handling Brexit well, while 66% of Leave voters say she is doing a good job. Corbyn beats May when voters are asked who sticks to their principles most: 47% say Corbyn and 46% May. But 55% say May is a strong leader, against 17% for Corbyn.
Now, what were people saying about May being Brown?
Perhaps they have some polling numbers to back it up?
This suggests that their previous survey (with a 9% Tory lead IIRC) was an outlier, overcounting Labour and Ukip and undercounting the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. These new results are much more consistent with other recent surveys.
That's not ironing out a blip but moving into totally new territory.
Tory-Lab margin via regression of historical leadership ratings gives a gap of 18% atm, which fits neatly with 44-26 atm (roughly what the polls are saying ).
Other data from the new Opinium survey for The Guardian:
Economic management: May/Hammond 49%, Corbyn/McDonnell: 15% (significantly larger gap than between the 2015 teams) Performance in office: May 49%, Corbyn 18% A strong leader: May 55%, Corbyn 17%
James Crouch of Opinium said: “The inevitable focus on Brexit in the coming months seems likely to scupper Labour’s chances of making any significant headway, with the election being fought on the topics that the Conservatives have strong leads on.”
This suggests that their previous survey (with a 9% Tory lead IIRC) was an outlier, overcounting Labour and Ukip and undercounting the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. These new results are much more consistent with other recent surveys.
That's not ironing out a blip but moving into totally new territory.
The Tories have more than doubled their lead over Labour to 19 points since Theresa May called a snap general election last Tuesday, according to a new poll that suggests the Conservatives are heading for a landslide victory on 8 May.
The survey by Opinium for the Observer, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, puts the Tories on 45% (up seven points compared with the previous week), while Labour is down three points on 26%.
That is bot hNational winners now, good day for me. I thought given he was brought down at first fence at Aintree he would be fit as a butchers dog and raring to go.
Well done with the gee-gees, we'll all be looking for tips next year now - or do we just bet on the Scottish horse?
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
You mean she is a coward
Nope, she is sensible, every minute spent wasting time in Glasgow is a minute lost winning over a voter in the North, Wales, the Midlands and the Scottish borders where she can win
Precisely. I don't know how many campaign visits the PM will be making to Scotland, but it wouldn't be worth the bother to be up and down there every other day. The Scottish Tory leader is more than capable of leading the effort, she is more popular than May is, and the likely number of gains there is low: Mundell isn't at all safe, and if the Tories finish with anything more than three Scottish MPs they'll count that as major progress.
Meanwhile, the prospect of dozens of Labour MPs being turfed out in England and Wales is very real.
If you were planning the PM's schedule then you'd probably want her to spend three or four times as much energy on Wales as on Scotland. That's simple logic.
Mundell was elected when Ruth led the Tories to a worst ever share of the vote. They've put on 10 points since then, he is safe as houses.
From a financial point of view if nothing else, it would make good sense to find an excuse to radically cut down their slate of candidates. The Liberal Democrats could afford to shoulder the burden of hundreds of lost deposits in 2015. Ukip can't do that in 2017.
This suggests that their previous survey (with a 9% Tory lead IIRC) was an outlier, overcounting Labour and Ukip and undercounting the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. These new results are much more consistent with other recent surveys.
So Tories up 8% on the last general election, Labour down 4%, LDs up 3% and UKIP down 4%
Opinium has tended to have the lowest numbers for the LibDems. It will be interesting to see if this is (a) Opinium moving in line with other pollsters, or (b) a genuine increase in their support.
This afternoon I was on a Sheffield bus, seated behind two middle aged men discussing the election.
One of them said he'd rather die than vote Tory, but he couldn't vote Labour either, because they're too soft on immigration. His friend agreed, then said "Clegg's lot are even worse."
By the time I got off the bus they'd ruled out UKIP as Tories in disguise and decided their best option was probably to stay at home come election day.
The Tories have more than doubled their lead over Labour to 19 points since Theresa May called a snap general election last Tuesday, according to a new poll that suggests the Conservatives are heading for a landslide victory on 8 May.
The survey by Opinium for the Observer, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, puts the Tories on 45% (up seven points compared with the previous week), while Labour is down three points on 26%.
There is a risk, fortunately a very small one, that the British government imposes strict tourist visa requirements on EU nationals coming to the UK, and there is a tit-for-tat retaliation.
I would suggest that risk is non existent. The UK government wants the process to be as smooth as possible. They won't be the ones taking action like that.
It is certainly not a risk I'm worrying about. It would be suicidal for the Spanish and Greek economies, and wouldn't do us much good either.
This afternoon I was on a Sheffield bus, seated behind two middle aged men discussing the election.
One of them said he'd rather die than vote Tory, but he couldn't vote Labour either, because they're too soft on immigration. His friend agreed, then said "Clegg's lot are even worse."
By the time I got off the bus they'd ruled out UKIP as Tories in disguise and decided their best option was probably to stay at home come election day.
Shame the Bus-pass Elvis Party is no more - would have been their natural constituency......
It really does look like the Labour Party is about to be murdered.
Tories +64 seats on this, according to Baxter, giving just shy of 400 seats.
Opinium was the last straw to grasp at, those 20% leads look realistic, unless there is some brand new methodological gremlin affecting all the polls that won't be found until after the vote.
I'm sure the Spanish tourist industry will be thrilled
Visas are an issue for Schengen, not the EU. Rights to reside (study, work, retire) are an issue for each individual nation. Verhofstadt is, as usual, talking out of his...
And which category will have the biggest impact on most Brits? Needing a tourist visa to travel or needing a work or student visa to reside?
Tourist visas won't be an issue, the Schengen zone already accommodates nations of the following countries without a visa:
Only the nationals of the following non-EEA countries do not need a visa for entry into the Schengen Area: Albania*, Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Australia, Bahamas, Barbados, Bosnia and Herzegovina*, Brazil, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Japan, Macedonia*, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Monaco, Montenegro*, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, San Marino, Serbia*/**, Seychelles, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan*** (Republic of China), United States, Uruguay, Vatican City, Venezuela, additionally persons holding British National (Overseas), Hong Kong SAR or Macau SAR passports. http://wikitravel.org/en/Travel_in_the_Schengen_Zone
There's no way France and Spain will allow anything different for UK Nationals. Ditto with the right to reside, Brits living in the EU are not a drain on the state in which they live. All I think might change is that the E111 will no longer work and we will need proper health insurance when travelling - and set against that the UK will be able to refuse NHS treatment for non-UK citizens at its discretion.
There is a risk, fortunately a very small one, that the British government imposes strict tourist visa requirements on EU nationals coming to the UK, and there is a tit-for-tat retaliation.
Britain would be silly to do that for EU tourists, unless major EU countries try and pull the same trick on us. Tourism is of course a massive source of foreign currency, which if anyone has checked the balance of payments recently is desperately needed!
Work permits/NI numbers is a different scenario of course, these should be a lot tighter after Brexit - restricted to skilled/high salaried/key worker categories, requiring health insurance and with no recourse to any state funds for x number of years.
The Tories have more than doubled their lead over Labour to 19 points since Theresa May called a snap general election last Tuesday, according to a new poll that suggests the Conservatives are heading for a landslide victory on 8 May.
The survey by Opinium for the Observer, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, puts the Tories on 45% (up seven points compared with the previous week), while Labour is down three points on 26%.
It really does look like the Labour Party is about to be murdered.
Tories +64 seats on this, according to Baxter, giving just shy of 400 seats.
Opinium was the last straw to grasp at, those 20% leads look realistic, unless there is some brand new methodological gremlin affecting all the polls that won't be found until after the vote.
They are all being rigged by Portland Communications.
It really does look like the Labour Party is about to be murdered.
Tories +64 seats on this, according to Baxter, giving just shy of 400 seats.
Opinium was the last straw to grasp at, those 20% leads look realistic, unless there is some brand new methodological gremlin affecting all the polls that won't be found until after the vote.
Labour's recent by-election losses to the Tories - local and Westminster - suggest no gremlin.
The Tories have more than doubled their lead over Labour to 19 points since Theresa May called a snap general election last Tuesday, according to a new poll that suggests the Conservatives are heading for a landslide victory on 8 May.
The survey by Opinium for the Observer, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, puts the Tories on 45% (up seven points compared with the previous week), while Labour is down three points on 26%.
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
It really does look like the Labour Party is about to be murdered.
Tories +64 seats on this, according to Baxter, giving just shy of 400 seats.
Opinium was the last straw to grasp at, those 20% leads look realistic, unless there is some brand new methodological gremlin affecting all the polls that won't be found until after the vote.
Labour's recent by-election losses to the Tories - local and Westminster - suggest no gremlin.
Did all those LD gains from Tories mean nothing then?
J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
On almost every count, May wins. Some 49% of all voters now approve of the way she is running the country, against just 18% who express approval for Corbyn’s leadership.
That 18% is probably a reasonable indication of Corbyn-Labour's floor at present. Things could get much worse than the current c26% polling.... and the tipping point may come when the Hamas/IRA/Soviet-loving attacks come.
We're going to need more popcorn. Much more popcorn.
(de-lurking after a number of year's absence from the site. I was here in the very early days but the subsequent site refreshes seem to have archived/deleted thousands of inane posts. Probably a Good Thing.)
That is bot hNational winners now, good day for me. I thought given he was brought down at first fence at Aintree he would be fit as a butchers dog and raring to go.
Well done with the gee-gees, we'll all be looking for tips next year now - or do we just bet on the Scottish horse?
English one today Sandpit. Be a miracle if I can repeat it next year.
On almost every count, May wins. Some 49% of all voters now approve of the way she is running the country, against just 18% who express approval for Corbyn’s leadership.
That 18% is probably a reasonable indication of Corbyn-Labour's floor at present. Things could get much worse than the current c26% polling.... and the tipping point may come when the Hamas/IRA/Soviet-loving attacks come.
We're going to need more popcorn. Much more popcorn.
(de-lurking after a number of year's absence from the site. I was here in the very early days but the subsequent site refreshes seem to have archived/deleted thousands of inane posts. Probably a Good Thing.)
Yup, we're starting from Labour's ceiling, with almost all of the attack material still unused.
Comments
Tory lead up 10 points....
Mostly because that's numerically impossible.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/opinium-observer-poll-conservatives-way-ahead-of-labour?CMP=twt_gu
So 2015 it was 42 : 21 in favour of the Tories
Today its 49 : 15 on running the economy
The Tories are trusted by almost three times as many voters (38%) to handle Brexit negotiations most effectively, compared with 13% for Labour. Even among Remain voters, there is support from many for the way May is handling Brexit. Among Remainers, 36% think she is handling Brexit well, while 66% of Leave voters say she is doing a good job. Corbyn beats May when voters are asked who sticks to their principles most: 47% say Corbyn and 46% May. But 55% say May is a strong leader, against 17% for Corbyn.
Now, what were people saying about May being Brown?
Perhaps they have some polling numbers to back it up?
The last six months Opiniums have been:
38-29-7-14
41-28-8-13
40-27-8-14
37-30-8-14
38-30-7-14
38-31-6-13
41-29-7-12
40-32-6-13
39-30-6-13
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention
So Con and LD up significantly and Lab and UKIP down.
Economic management: May/Hammond 49%, Corbyn/McDonnell: 15% (significantly larger gap than between the 2015 teams)
Performance in office: May 49%, Corbyn 18%
A strong leader: May 55%, Corbyn 17%
James Crouch of Opinium said: “The inevitable focus on Brexit in the coming months seems likely to scupper Labour’s chances of making any significant headway, with the election being fought on the topics that the Conservatives have strong leads on.”
Con +16
Lab -9
LD +3
UKIP -8
This afternoon I was on a Sheffield bus, seated behind two middle aged men discussing the election.
One of them said he'd rather die than vote Tory, but he couldn't vote Labour either, because they're too soft on immigration. His friend agreed, then said "Clegg's lot are even worse."
By the time I got off the bus they'd ruled out UKIP as Tories in disguise and decided their best option was probably to stay at home come election day.
British people on course to vote against their own interests, poll suggests.
Work permits/NI numbers is a different scenario of course, these should be a lot tighter after Brexit - restricted to skilled/high salaried/key worker categories, requiring health insurance and with no recourse to any state funds for x number of years.
https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959
NEW THREAD
There's usually two sides to the story with things like this, chances are that it will get resolved in due course.
We're going to need more popcorn. Much more popcorn.
(de-lurking after a number of year's absence from the site. I was here in the very early days but the subsequent site refreshes seem to have archived/deleted thousands of inane posts. Probably a Good Thing.)