Just seen the odds put up by Betfair and PP for Carshalton and Wallington 9/4 Cons seems generous considering UKIP may not stand and it was a leave constituency. Also CChQ are making this a target seaT Lds 1/4 DYOR
Have you seen the 14/1 for the LDs in Cheadle? (It may have changed since I last looked).
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
Speaking to my girlfriend about the vote - she thinks shy righties will make it a Le Pen - Fillon final. She will be voting Macron but thinks he has been unimpressive so far - too lightweight.
I think Macron will hold enough votes to make it through (taking a few from Melenchon supporters, who are not as left as he is and can vote for Macron with a peg over the nose), but Fillon will be very close behind.
Some of Mélenchon's supporters could give a clothespeg vote to Macron in R2, but in R1 if they reconsider voting for him they are much more likely to vote for Le Pen, abstain, or perhaps even vote for Hamon, which is who some of them intended to vote for until recently.
In a head to head 2nd round between Macron and Le Pen, Macron gets 51% of Melenchon supporters, whereas Le Pen only gets 12% (the rest abstaining)
So how can you say that if Melenchon supporters do not decide, after all, to vote for him in R1, that they are much more likely to give their support to Le Pen?? According to that poll, there are more than 4 times the amount that are more sympathetic to Macron than Le Pen.
And, while on the subject, Melenchon has the lowest percentage, in the top 4, for those who say they are certain to vote for the candidate they say they support with about one third of his supporters saying they are not certain to vote for him. That represents about 6% of the electorate.. and from the figures above, it seems clear that the likeliest recipient for deserting Melenchon supporters is to Macron and not Le Pen.
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....
Plaid have considered a coalition with Tories in the past IIRC. Wasn’t there a ‘Rainbow’ in Wales at one point?
The real problem with the election of Farron and his positioning post the 2015 disaster is that the Lib Dems haven't been eager enough to distance themselves from Labour, rather than the Tories.
If voters in Southern England thought they could rely on the Lib Dems to act as a kind of wet centrist, Cameron-Clegg party - and to consider deals with the Tories, but explicitly not to touch either Labour or the SNP with a ten foot bargepole - then they might be doing rather better down here. Especially as Labour at the Parliamentary level looks, more than ever, like a spent force almost everywhere south of the Severn-Wash line except London.
Although that said, the whole Europhilia thing is something of a complication for them in most of the South West...
It's complicated. I would not rule out LD for working with Labour (usually, I would if Lab are led by Corbyn), but perhaps for being raised deep in the Tory shires I am naturally more wary of Lab than Con, and I'd personally prefer the LDs be open to all sides, even if they prefer one over the other, so the approach you describe might do better with me and some other southerners, but in terms of maximising their vote and getting the best chance to win seats, repudiating Con seems the better approach.
Problem is now people will see the first message, that it is not ruled out, and even if that changes not all will see it, same as with the homosexual sinning bit. I already know one LD leaning Tory who was put off by that issue.
Exactly. The Lib Dems appear, from the polling evidence, to be doing OK trimming votes off of Labour (presumably a combination of disillusioned Blairites and deep Europhiles,) but the point is that most of their available target seats are in Tory territory, and they need to exploit the Yellow Tory vote to rebuild as a significant force.
You're not going to do that if Theresa May can include Tim Farron in her Coalition of Chaos, and be believed by those self-same voters.
Without that soft centre-right, economic prudence and social liberalism vote, they're just left to bang the Continuity Remain drum. This will help them, but not that much in the great scheme of things.
Trying to estimate how much boost EdM gave Labour in his own and nearby constituencies.
In 2015 the Conservatives received 26,357 votes across the three Doncaster constituencies at the general election and 25,244 in the local elections in the same constituencies. As the Conservatives didn't have candidates in two of the local election wards those two numbers are closely comparable.
Labour though received 60,169 votes in the three Doncaster constituencies at the general election but only 49,337 in the local elections in the same area.
A difference of 10,832 - so perhaps worth 3,000 votes per constituency.
I wonder if David Herdson has any views on how Hemsworth, which is also adjacent to EdM's Doncaster North, might have been affected.
For what it's worth I've just been speaking to some people who reckon Fillon's the one to watch. Apparently despite his posters being daubed with the word VOLEUR' it was just a dirty tricks campaign.
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
I wonder how much this attitude represents a fundamental failure to understand the dynamics of a the British political system with its main feature being majority single party governments? A politician used to governing in permanent minority/coalition governments just doesn't appreciate how different the position of a Prime Minister with a large majority compared to one with a small one. This is clearly not primarily about the EU taking a different stance as a result of the election (other than possibly the idea that they might play hardball thinking that the decision to leave the EU might be reversed), but allowing May to not be constantly undermined by a failure to carry support in Parliament.
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
Speaking to my girlfriend about the vote - she thinks shy righties will make it a Le Pen - Fillon final. She will be voting Macron but thinks he has been unimpressive so far - too lightweight.
I think Macron will hold enough votes to make it through (taking a few from Melenchon supporters, who are not as left as he is and can vote for Macron with a peg over the nose), but Fillon will be very close behind.
Some of Mélenchon's supporters could give a clothespeg vote to Macron in R2, but in R1 if they reconsider voting for him they are much more likely to vote for Le Pen, abstain, or perhaps even vote for Hamon, which is who some of them intended to vote for until recently.
Reading your posts, it's almost like you have a huge negative position on Macron, and are desperate to convince yourself others.
Is it possible to bet on the LDs coming second in the popular vote? Because if the Labour campaign implodes over the next few weeks they could take second place by default.
Ladbrokes i think for a LD Vs Labour voteshare bet.
Just got back from delivering for the Tories in a South London marginal seat. Very large number of volunteers; we covered a decent portion of the constituency in a single day!
We have the bit between our teeth. It feels like Labour are still on the starting line.
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....
Plaid have considered a coalition with Tories in the past IIRC. Wasn’t there a ‘Rainbow’ in Wales at one point?
So lets get this straight.
Coalition with tories a big no no
Coalition with hard left Labour, IRA / Hamas loving Corbyn and co is ok?
Just asking
If it were left to me I would say that I would support, on a confidence and supply basis, the party which had the best chance of forming a Government. After all, the Tories voted for the Iraq War if we’re dragging up the past.
If Corbyn does cause a collapse in Labour votes and seats I wonder how much that will affect future Short money.
That could be big!
In the long term, i.e. if the union funding starts to dry up as a result of the Trade Union Act 2016, and the extra members who joined with Corbyn, drift away.
Just got back from delivering for the Tories in a South London marginal seat. Very large number of volunteers; we covered a decent portion of the constituency in a single day!
We have the bit between our teeth. It feels like Labour are still on the starting line.
Whereabouts in South London?
There aren't many south London Con/Lab marginals these days: Tooting, Croydon Central, Eltham. Can't think of any others.
Rumours here locally that the LDs are running against Bercow???
Good. I hope they all do, not running against a Speaker is one convention (which already is not always followed) that I don't think justifies continuation.
Rumours here locally that the LDs are running against Bercow???
Why?
No idea - on our local village forums Mrs Scrap says. someone called Sarah Lowes - probably rubbish and don't know if the spelling is right even if she exists!
Mr. Roger, do these people think Macron or Le Pen will fail to make the second round?
I'm afraid they didn't say and I didn't ask. I just asked who was going to win and they said Fillon. Interestingly though they did say that the dishonesty accusations were bullshit.
For what it's worth I've just been speaking to some people who reckon Fillon's the one to watch. Apparently despite his posters being daubed with the word VOLEUR' it was just a dirty tricks campaign.
I think there is every chance he will get into round two and that his vote tomorrow will be a few per cent more than his best polling of late. People talk about shy Le Pen voters but Fillon supporters have a lot more reason to be shy when talking to pollsters, because of all the allegations ranged against Fillon.
Some of Melenchon's rather flakey support to go to Macron and Fillon to complete the top two, although not sure in which order they will end up. That would be my eve of election tip.
Speaking to my girlfriend about the vote - she thinks shy righties will make it a Le Pen - Fillon final. She will be voting Macron but thinks he has been unimpressive so far - too lightweight.
I think Macron will hold enough votes to make it through (taking a few from Melenchon supporters, who are not as left as he is and can vote for Macron with a peg over the nose), but Fillon will be very close behind.
Some of Mélenchon's supporters could give a clothespeg vote to Macron in R2, but in R1 if they reconsider voting for him they are much more likely to vote for Le Pen, abstain, or perhaps even vote for Hamon, which is who some of them intended to vote for until recently.
Reading your posts, it's almost like you have a huge negative position on Macron, and are desperate to convince yourself others.
Cyan was clearly laying Dupont-Aignon and Asselineau all day and has a green book on all the real contenders.
Just seen the odds put up by Betfair and PP for Carshalton and Wallington 9/4 Cons seems generous considering UKIP may not stand and it was a leave constituency. Also CChQ are making this a target seaT Lds 1/4 DYOR
Have you seen the 14/1 for the LDs in Cheadle? (It may have changed since I last looked).
Say what you want about TM but she's put her neck on the block with this election... She's certainly not cowering in her Downing St bunker like El Gord did.
Corbyn on the Marr show in morning and Farron is on Peston
Will Marr go easy on Jezza? Or flash up uncomfortable images from his past just when he is about to speak like they did with Cameron? Or accuse him of being on tablets for mental health condition like Brown?
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
I'm sure the Spanish tourist industry will be thrilled
Visas are an issue for Schengen, not the EU. Rights to reside (study, work, retire) are an issue for each individual nation. Verhofstadt is, as usual, talking out of his...
Is that J Gordon "bottled holding an early election" Brown?
Or the 'lost an election heavily' Brown?
Not sure what planet you're on, Brown won the '10 election - enough seats for a progressive rainbow coalition, until Old Nick Clegg and his perfidious Illiberal Democrats decided to team up with Gideon Osborne and smash the British social fabric, and wreck the economy, with Austerity and Tuition Fees.
Interesting that the young'uns who brought us this worldview in the aftermath of '10 are now approaching their 30s, and have a whole new set of problems on their plate - intergenerational inequality, the housing squeeze, the burden of student loan repayments, the bad fortune to leave uni into a weak graduate jobs market resulting in stunted early careers, and generally cheesed off about Brexit. I wonder how that is all going to pan out, and what their capacity for orangey-yellow forgiveness is.
Corbyn in Warrington today. Roughly 25th on Labour target list. How long before he is in places like Mansfield? Or are they keeping Corbyn away from Con target seats and hoping to micro-campaign without mentioning him?
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
I'm sure the Spanish tourist industry will be thrilled
Visas are an issue for Schengen, not the EU. Rights to reside (study, work, retire) are an issue for each individual nation. Verhofstadt is, as usual, talking out of his...
And which category will have the biggest impact on most Brits? Needing a tourist visa to travel or needing a work or student visa to reside?
Rumours here locally that the LDs are running against Bercow???
Good. I hope they all do, not running against a Speaker is one convention (which already is not always followed) that I don't think justifies continuation.
I read somewhere (can't find it now) that Labour were looking to select a candidate too....
Just seen the odds put up by Betfair and PP for Carshalton and Wallington 9/4 Cons seems generous considering UKIP may not stand and it was a leave constituency. Also CChQ are making this a target seaT Lds 1/4 DYOR
Have you seen the 14/1 for the LDs in Cheadle? (It may have changed since I last looked).
Is that J Gordon "bottled holding an early election" Brown?
Or the 'lost an election heavily' Brown?
Not sure what planet you're on, Brown won the '10 election - enough seats for a progressive rainbow coalition, until Old Nick Clegg and his perfidious Illiberal Democrats decided to team up with Gideon Osborne and smash the British social fabric, and wreck the economy, with Austerity and Tuition Fees.
Interesting that the young'uns who brought us this worldview in the aftermath of '10 are now approaching their 30s, and have a whole new set of problems on their plate - intergenerational inequality, the housing squeeze, the burden of student loan repayments, the bad fortune to leave uni into a weak graduate jobs market resulting in stunted early careers, and generally cheesed off about Brexit. I wonder how that is all going to pan out, and what their capacity for orangey-yellow forgiveness is.
How silly is all that? There weren't enough seats for a rainbow and leading Labour people were already working to kill any such deal anyway. The profile of spending cuts that the LDs pushed the Tories back to was almost precisely what Balls had been advocating prior to the election, and nowhere near the original Tory plan to remove the deficit in one parliament. And Labour's record on its promises to students is equally dismal. As is Labour's record on voting reform and on Brexit.
The Limp Dims, Labour, the SNP, Plaid, etc, would all rather go into coalition with the IRA than the Tories.
Actually no, the Lib Dems are wisely keeping their powder dry - its the others who are indulging in childish virtue (sic) signalling......
There isn't going to be any coalition anyway. For that to happen, the Tories would have to lose seats. That seems pretty unlikely, even if they have a terrible campaign.
Just got back from delivering for the Tories in a South London marginal seat. Very large number of volunteers; we covered a decent portion of the constituency in a single day!
We have the bit between our teeth. It feels like Labour are still on the starting line.
I had thought that because the election is not expected to be close that a lot of Tory activists would not bother this time, so that's interesting to hear.
Anybody else hitting the streets (or phone banks) campaigning have any accounts of numbers or enthusiasm form activists?
In London, the number of attacks increased from 261 in 2015 to 454 last year. About 74% of police investigations since 2014 were wound down because the perpetrators could not be identified or victims were unwilling to press charges.
What we know in the UK is that the majority of perpetrators are young men, as are at least two-thirds of the victims," Mr Shah said. "The majority of the attackers are British white men and the majority of the victims are white men too."
‘Dr’ Eoin Clarke is an arse, the only time his tweets are published on PB is at general election time and that's only to point and laugh and remember what an arse he is.
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
I'm sure the Spanish tourist industry will be thrilled
Visas are an issue for Schengen, not the EU. Rights to reside (study, work, retire) are an issue for each individual nation. Verhofstadt is, as usual, talking out of his...
And which category will have the biggest impact on most Brits? Needing a tourist visa to travel or needing a work or student visa to reside?
Tourist visas won't be an issue, the Schengen zone already accommodates nations of the following countries without a visa:
Only the nationals of the following non-EEA countries do not need a visa for entry into the Schengen Area: Albania*, Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Australia, Bahamas, Barbados, Bosnia and Herzegovina*, Brazil, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Japan, Macedonia*, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Monaco, Montenegro*, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, San Marino, Serbia*/**, Seychelles, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan*** (Republic of China), United States, Uruguay, Vatican City, Venezuela, additionally persons holding British National (Overseas), Hong Kong SAR or Macau SAR passports. http://wikitravel.org/en/Travel_in_the_Schengen_Zone
There's no way France and Spain will allow anything different for UK Nationals. Ditto with the right to reside, Brits living in the EU are not a drain on the state in which they live. All I think might change is that the E111 will no longer work and we will need proper health insurance when travelling - and set against that the UK will be able to refuse NHS treatment for non-UK citizens at its discretion.
‘Dr’ Eoin Clarke is an arse, the only time his tweets are published on PB is at general election time and that's only to point and laugh and remember what an arse he is.
Exactly right - no-name 90% of the time and then a twitter clown for the campaign.
Corbyn in Warrington today. Roughly 25th on Labour target list. How long before he is in places like Mansfield? Or are they keeping Corbyn away from Con target seats and hoping to micro-campaign without mentioning him?
‘Dr’ Eoin Clarke is an arse, the only time his tweets are published on PB is at general election time and that's only to point and laugh and remember what an arse he is.
Exactly right - no-name 90% of the time and then a twitter clown for the campaign.
I believe TSE has some great ones saved from last GE where he was still claiming Labour victory even when the fat lady had finished singing and they were packing up the stage.
Corbyn in Warrington today. Roughly 25th on Labour target list. How long before he is in places like Mansfield? Or are they keeping Corbyn away from Con target seats and hoping to micro-campaign without mentioning him?
I was posting about this earlier this afternoon. The suggestion is that Labour are running two campaigns: Team Corbyn is looking to Labour's target seats (none of which Labour HQ expects to win,) whilst Labour HQ is busily building a firewall in their mid-range defences (those seats where they have, roughly speaking, a majority of around 5,000 or greater.)
The attempt to prevent a complete rout will be focussed on trying to outperform the national polls in those seats which they think they still have a realistic chance of saving. MPs in the tighter marginals will be told to look to their own defences.
Assuming both that the Tories do well enough to topple most of their best targets, but also that Labour HQ's firewall holds, then the PLP would come through the election with about 180 members. In terms of Parliamentary seats they'd be in a somewhat better position than the post-97 Tories, but in terms of vote share they'd have a much steeper mountain to climb.
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.
I believe the stat shown yesterday on here was that the top 1% earn 11% of the income and pay 27% of the taxes. Not making any comment on whether this is good or bad, just filling in one of the gaps.
27% of income tax. They pay little VAT proportionally as they are unable to spend most of their incomes, so probably less than 5% of VAT and excise duties and council tax.
Government income from VAT, excise duties and Council tax is more than that from income taxes.
So my guess is that the top 1% get 11% of the income and around 16% of taxes overall. They could easily afford much more tax and still live very comfortably.
As a member of the 1%, I suspect that we pay a great deal more than 16% of all taxes levied on individuals. Don't forget that pretty much all capital gains tax is going to be paid by the 1%, and a very large proportion of estate taxes too.
I'd imagine the 1% pay a larger proportion of VAT.
Is that J Gordon "bottled holding an early election" Brown?
Or the 'lost an election heavily' Brown?
Not sure what planet you're on, Brown won the '10 election - enough seats for a progressive rainbow coalition, until Old Nick Clegg and his perfidious Illiberal Democrats decided to team up with Gideon Osborne and smash the British social fabric, and wreck the economy, with Austerity and Tuition Fees.
Interesting that the young'uns who brought us this worldview in the aftermath of '10 are now approaching their 30s, and have a whole new set of problems on their plate - intergenerational inequality, the housing squeeze, the burden of student loan repayments, the bad fortune to leave uni into a weak graduate jobs market resulting in stunted early careers, and generally cheesed off about Brexit. I wonder how that is all going to pan out, and what their capacity for orangey-yellow forgiveness is.
How silly is all that? There weren't enough seats for a rainbow and leading Labour people were already working to kill any such deal anyway. The profile of spending cuts that the LDs pushed the Tories back to was almost precisely what Balls had been advocating prior to the election, and nowhere near the original Tory plan to remove the deficit in one parliament. And Labour's record on its promises to students is equally dismal. As is Labour's record on voting reform and on Brexit.
Indeed, given how the last (or to be generous to them, "previous") Labour government tactically timed the tuition fee review to report back early in the next parliament, and how little evidence there is that Brown wouldn't simply have accepted those recommendations (particularly in a time of belt-tightening) the irony of the Milifandom of the aggrieved student population was quiet delicious really.
The modern history of France does not suggest that this is a nation with adaptable political institutions, nor that its vaunted traditions of liberty, equality and fraternity count for much when the chips are down. Monarchy has violently given way to revolution, regicide, restoration, empire, a succession of failed republics, religious wars, occupation and intermittent dictatorships, and now to one terrorist attack after another that the authorities seem powerless to prevent. The rest of Europe has never been immune to the consequences. The hour of glory has yet to arrive and no matter who ends up winning this awful election campaign, it won’t be arriving soon. Il faut cultiver notre jardin.
Corbyn in Warrington today. Roughly 25th on Labour target list. How long before he is in places like Mansfield? Or are they keeping Corbyn away from Con target seats and hoping to micro-campaign without mentioning him?
Really curious to know how Labour play this.
If Corbyns visiting a seat, its a prity safe bet that Lab HQ have given up on it.
Corbyn in Warrington today. Roughly 25th on Labour target list. How long before he is in places like Mansfield? Or are they keeping Corbyn away from Con target seats and hoping to micro-campaign without mentioning him?
They obviously kept that trip quiet until he was there.
I'd imagine there's a fair number of people in Warrington who would consider lynching too nice for him, given his support for the Northern Irish child murderers.
‘Dr’ Eoin Clarke is an arse, the only time his tweets are published on PB is at general election time and that's only to point and laugh and remember what an arse he is.
For a little while Eoin used to post here. Just when he'd started his "Green Benches" blog he would comment on here, trying to generate a bit of traffic and get some feedback. (Already negative, at that stage!) That was pre-Vanilla. In fact pretty sure it predated Disqus.
Corbyn in Warrington today. Roughly 25th on Labour target list. How long before he is in places like Mansfield? Or are they keeping Corbyn away from Con target seats and hoping to micro-campaign without mentioning him?
Really curious to know how Labour play this.
If Corbyns visiting a seat, its a prity safe bet that Lab HQ have given up on it.
As well as the forthcoming Welsh poll, it looks like we may have our first set of Scottish data of the campaign tomorrow.
Interesting. One suspects the party not profiting is Labour.
The last Scotland-only poll I can find is a Panelbase from January. SNP 47, Con 27, Lab 15, LD 4, Others 7.
If Labour is significantly lower than 15% (especially if the SNP vote is maxed-out, and so the main beneficiaries turn out to be the Tories and Liberal Democrats) then that would be further evidence of the continuing decline towards extinction. Certainly there have been lower Scottish splits for Labour in the GB-wide polls, but obviously those have all been based on rather small sub-samples.
With political realignment, pro- and anti-Union as well as left and right, having taken place in Scotland, you can make a plausible case for the continued relevance of the SNP, Greens, Lib Dems and Tories - but it's increasingly hard to see what purpose Scottish Labour's continued existence serves, save as a repository for a shrinking cohort of elderly, die-hard habit voters.
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
As well as the forthcoming Welsh poll, it looks like we may have our first set of Scottish data of the campaign tomorrow.
Polls for Scotland, Wales and UK-wide this evening I assume?
First proper PB #PollWatch of the election.
Beers and popcorn on standby. Hopefully we can avoid too many meltdowns.
Latest YouGov for the Sunday Times, hopefully out tonight (although a bit of a wait for the tables, I imagine.) First I've heard of the Scottish poll was on Twitter, although that may also be out tonight. The latest Welsh Barometer is due on Monday (I think it's being embargoed until 6pm, to go out on the ITV regional programme.)
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
The modern history of France does not suggest that this is a nation with adaptable political institutions, nor that its vaunted traditions of liberty, equality and fraternity count for much when the chips are down. Monarchy has violently given way to revolution, regicide, restoration, empire, a succession of failed republics, religious wars, occupation and intermittent dictatorships, and now to one terrorist attack after another that the authorities seem powerless to prevent. The rest of Europe has never been immune to the consequences. The hour of glory has yet to arrive and no matter who ends up winning this awful election campaign, it won’t be arriving soon. Il faut cultiver notre jardin.
An insurrectionist Twitter channel, #radiolondres, will become the unofficial conduit for the information the government would otherwise suppress. It takes its name from the BBC broadcasts to occupied France during the Second War. Exit polls will start to be published late tomorrow afternoon on Twitter, but not in French media.
There is an official Radio Londres website & twitter account - but I suspect its the hashtag that's worth keeping an eye on tomorrow.
'...Bristol West is held by Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire. The Greens want to replace her with their finance spokesperson Molly Scott Cato. It’s a odd progressive alliance in which the daughter of an immigrant who spent decades working with domestic violence victims before entering Parliament is expected to stand aside for an MEP and ‘sustainability economist’ after just two years in the job.'
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
You mean she is a coward
Nope, she is sensible, every minute spent wasting time in Glasgow is a minute lost winning over a voter in the North, Wales, the Midlands and the Scottish borders where she can win
Is that J Gordon "bottled holding an early election" Brown?
Or the 'lost an election heavily' Brown?
Not sure what planet you're on, Brown won the '10 election - enough seats for a progressive rainbow coalition, until Old Nick Clegg and his perfidious Illiberal Democrats decided to team up with Gideon Osborne and smash the British social fabric, and wreck the economy, with Austerity and Tuition Fees.
Interesting that the young'uns who brought us this worldview in the aftermath of '10 are now approaching their 30s, and have a whole new set of problems on their plate - intergenerational inequality, the housing squeeze, the burden of student loan repayments, the bad fortune to leave uni into a weak graduate jobs market resulting in stunted early careers, and generally cheesed off about Brexit. I wonder how that is all going to pan out, and what their capacity for orangey-yellow forgiveness is.
How silly is all that? There weren't enough seats for a rainbow and leading Labour people were already working to kill any such deal anyway. The profile of spending cuts that the LDs pushed the Tories back to was almost precisely what Balls had been advocating prior to the election, and nowhere near the original Tory plan to remove the deficit in one parliament. And Labour's record on its promises to students is equally dismal. As is Labour's record on voting reform and on Brexit.
Indeed, given how the last (or to be generous to them, "previous") Labour government tactically timed the tuition fee review to report back early in the next parliament, and how little evidence there is that Brown wouldn't simply have accepted those recommendations (particularly in a time of belt-tightening) the irony of the Milifandom of the aggrieved student population was quiet delicious really.
That really would have been a coalition of chaos. Anyhow we can debate the arithmetic until the cows return; the bottom line is that big beasts like John Reid were already making 'over my dead body' noises about the potential deal and even if done it wouldn't have lasted ten minutes.
What people never seem to understand about coalition is that you enter one not to support your rival, but to stop them taking all the power.
As well as the forthcoming Welsh poll, it looks like we may have our first set of Scottish data of the campaign tomorrow.
Polls for Scotland, Wales and UK-wide this evening I assume?
First proper PB #PollWatch of the election.
Beers and popcorn on standby. Hopefully we can avoid too many meltdowns.
20%+ leads nationally - nothing has changed.
The 20% leads came out of nowhere a week or so ago, with sudden jumps of +4. The Tories might be starting from their high point.
The Tories might be starting from their high point.
So might Labour.
A distinct possibility.
In each of the last six elections, Labour's polling averages two months out were better than the vote shares recorded on the big day.
Now, in each of the last six elections, it is fair to say that they didn't start in such a dire position. On the other hand, in none of the last six elections were they led by Jeremy Corbyn.
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
I'm sure the Spanish tourist industry will be thrilled
Visas are an issue for Schengen, not the EU. Rights to reside (study, work, retire) are an issue for each individual nation. Verhofstadt is, as usual, talking out of his...
And which category will have the biggest impact on most Brits? Needing a tourist visa to travel or needing a work or student visa to reside?
Tourist visas won't be an issue, the Schengen zone already accommodates nations of the following countries without a visa:
Only the nationals of the following non-EEA countries do not need a visa for entry into the Schengen Area: Albania*, Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Australia, Bahamas, Barbados, Bosnia and Herzegovina*, Brazil, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Japan, Macedonia*, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Monaco, Montenegro*, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, San Marino, Serbia*/**, Seychelles, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan*** (Republic of China), United States, Uruguay, Vatican City, Venezuela, additionally persons holding British National (Overseas), Hong Kong SAR or Macau SAR passports. http://wikitravel.org/en/Travel_in_the_Schengen_Zone
There's no way France and Spain will allow anything different for UK Nationals. Ditto with the right to reside, Brits living in the EU are not a drain on the state in which they live. All I think might change is that the E111 will no longer work and we will need proper health insurance when travelling - and set against that the UK will be able to refuse NHS treatment for non-UK citizens at its discretion.
There is a risk, fortunately a very small one, that the British government imposes strict tourist visa requirements on EU nationals coming to the UK, and there is a tit-for-tat retaliation.
What do we do if the polls only show a 10% lead for the Tories? Start booking flights?
That would certainly sow some panic in the ranks. But the Tories are right to be a little nervous about all this. Theresa's huge poll leads were due to her political honeymoon. Perhaps this honeymoon was premised purely on her not being a tricksy politician prone to smart-alec schemes.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
You mean she is a coward
Nope, she is sensible, every minute spent wasting time in Glasgow is a minute lost winning over a voter in the North, Wales, the Midlands and the Scottish borders where she can win
Precisely. I don't know how many campaign visits the PM will be making to Scotland, but it wouldn't be worth the bother to be up and down there every other day. The Scottish Tory leader is more than capable of leading the effort, she is more popular than May is, and the likely number of gains there is low: Mundell isn't at all safe, and if the Tories finish with anything more than three Scottish MPs they'll count that as major progress.
Meanwhile, the prospect of dozens of Labour MPs being turfed out in England and Wales is very real.
If you were planning the PM's schedule then you'd probably want her to spend three or four times as much energy on Wales as on Scotland. That's simple logic.
The Tories have more than doubled their lead over Labour to 19 points since Theresa May called a snap general election last Tuesday, according to a new poll that suggests the Conservatives are heading for a landslide victory on 8 May.
The survey by Opinium for the Observer, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, puts the Tories on 45% (up seven points compared with the previous week), while Labour is down three points on 26%.
That is bot hNational winners now, good day for me. I thought given he was brought down at first fence at Aintree he would be fit as a butchers dog and raring to go.
This suggests that their previous survey (with a 9% Tory lead IIRC) was an outlier, overcounting Labour and Ukip and undercounting the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. These new results are much more consistent with other recent surveys.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
You mean she is a coward
Nope, she is sensible, every minute spent wasting time in Glasgow is a minute lost winning over a voter in the North, Wales, the Midlands and the Scottish borders where she can win
Precisely. I don't know how many campaign visits the PM will be making to Scotland, but it wouldn't be worth the bother to be up and down there every other day. The Scottish Tory leader is more than capable of leading the effort, she is more popular than May is, and the likely number of gains there is low: Mundell isn't at all safe, and if the Tories finish with anything more than three Scottish MPs they'll count that as major progress.
Meanwhile, the prospect of dozens of Labour MPs being turfed out in England and Wales is very real.
If you were planning the PM's schedule then you'd probably want her to spend three or four times as much energy on Wales as on Scotland. That's simple logic.
Indeed and if she was going to Scotland Glasgow would be about last on her list of areas to visit, every Glasgow MP and constituency MSP is SNP and it voted Yes in the referendum when Scotland as a whole voted No
As well as the forthcoming Welsh poll, it looks like we may have our first set of Scottish data of the campaign tomorrow.
Polls for Scotland, Wales and UK-wide this evening I assume?
First proper PB #PollWatch of the election.
Beers and popcorn on standby. Hopefully we can avoid too many meltdowns.
20%+ leads nationally - nothing has changed.
The 20% leads came out of nowhere a week or so ago, with sudden jumps of +4. The Tories might be starting from their high point.
The Tories might be starting from their high point.
So might Labour.
Possibly, but given they started some on 23/24, I doubt it.
Given that that far exceeds their leader's ratings, why?
The loyalty to the Labour brand exceeds that of the leader. Or so I will be betting. Outside of an SLAB situation, low 20s is a stretch even if Idi Amin were the leader.
This suggests that their previous survey (with a 9% Tory lead IIRC) was an outlier, overcounting Labour and Ukip and undercounting the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. These new results are much more consistent with other recent surveys.
Comments
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_21-04-2017.pdf
In a head to head 2nd round between Macron and Le Pen, Macron gets 51% of Melenchon supporters, whereas Le Pen only gets 12% (the rest abstaining)
So how can you say that if Melenchon supporters do not decide, after all, to vote for him in R1, that they are much more likely to give their support to Le Pen?? According to that poll, there are more than 4 times the amount that are more sympathetic to Macron than Le Pen.
And, while on the subject, Melenchon has the lowest percentage, in the top 4, for those who say they are certain to vote for the candidate they say they support with about one third of his supporters saying they are not certain to vote for him. That represents about 6% of the electorate.. and from the figures above, it seems clear that the likeliest recipient for deserting Melenchon supporters is to Macron and not Le Pen.
Not sure what the odds are now, but it was pretty mean (6 or so for Lib Dems to get more votes than Labour, I think).
You're not going to do that if Theresa May can include Tim Farron in her Coalition of Chaos, and be believed by those self-same voters.
Without that soft centre-right, economic prudence and social liberalism vote, they're just left to bang the Continuity Remain drum. This will help them, but not that much in the great scheme of things.
In 2015 the Conservatives received 26,357 votes across the three Doncaster constituencies at the general election and 25,244 in the local elections in the same constituencies. As the Conservatives didn't have candidates in two of the local election wards those two numbers are closely comparable.
Labour though received 60,169 votes in the three Doncaster constituencies at the general election but only 49,337 in the local elections in the same area.
A difference of 10,832 - so perhaps worth 3,000 votes per constituency.
I wonder if David Herdson has any views on how Hemsworth, which is also adjacent to EdM's Doncaster North, might have been affected.
Coalition with tories a big no no
Coalition with hard left Labour, IRA / Hamas loving Corbyn and co is ok?
Just asking
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/22/dont-believe-theresa-may-election-wont-change-brexit
I bet you do.......
After all, the Tories voted for the Iraq War if we’re dragging up the past.
In the long term, i.e. if the union funding starts to dry up as a result of the Trade Union Act 2016, and the extra members who joined with Corbyn, drift away.
Some of Melenchon's rather flakey support to go to Macron and Fillon to complete the top two, although not sure in which order they will end up. That would be my eve of election tip.
Say what you want about TM but she's put her neck on the block with this election... She's certainly not cowering in her Downing St bunker like El Gord did.
Interesting that the young'uns who brought us this worldview in the aftermath of '10 are now approaching their 30s, and have a whole new set of problems on their plate - intergenerational inequality, the housing squeeze, the burden of student loan repayments, the bad fortune to leave uni into a weak graduate jobs market resulting in stunted early careers, and generally cheesed off about Brexit. I wonder how that is all going to pan out, and what their capacity for orangey-yellow forgiveness is.
Mr. G, I'd be quite content with that.
Mr Roger, fair enough.
Anybody else hitting the streets (or phone banks) campaigning have any accounts of numbers or enthusiasm form activists?
One wonders if there'll be a correlation between Hammond saying things and bad headlines.
What we know in the UK is that the majority of perpetrators are young men, as are at least two-thirds of the victims," Mr Shah said. "The majority of the attackers are British white men and the majority of the victims are white men too."
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-39678059
This surprised me, as I was under the impression that many attacks were gang related.
As well as the forthcoming Welsh poll, it looks like we may have our first set of Scottish data of the campaign tomorrow.
Former French economy minister Pierre Moscovici described the decision as a “wise move” that would “clear up” talks with the EU.
Speaking to Bloomberg, the European Union Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs said he hoped for an “orderly” and “friendly” Brexit.
He said: “This is obviously a wise move politically. What I hope is that this campaign will clear up the game.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/795136/General-Election-2017-Theresa-May-wise-move-for-Brexit-says-EU-Commissioner
Cheadle down to 5/1
Only the nationals of the following non-EEA countries do not need a visa for entry into the Schengen Area: Albania*, Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Australia, Bahamas, Barbados, Bosnia and Herzegovina*, Brazil, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Japan, Macedonia*, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Monaco, Montenegro*, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, San Marino, Serbia*/**, Seychelles, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan*** (Republic of China), United States, Uruguay, Vatican City, Venezuela, additionally persons holding British National (Overseas), Hong Kong SAR or Macau SAR passports.
http://wikitravel.org/en/Travel_in_the_Schengen_Zone
There's no way France and Spain will allow anything different for UK Nationals. Ditto with the right to reside, Brits living in the EU are not a drain on the state in which they live. All I think might change is that the E111 will no longer work and we will need proper health insurance when travelling - and set against that the UK will be able to refuse NHS treatment for non-UK citizens at its discretion.
First proper PB #PollWatch of the election.
Beers and popcorn on standby. Hopefully we can avoid too many meltdowns.
The attempt to prevent a complete rout will be focussed on trying to outperform the national polls in those seats which they think they still have a realistic chance of saving. MPs in the tighter marginals will be told to look to their own defences.
Assuming both that the Tories do well enough to topple most of their best targets, but also that Labour HQ's firewall holds, then the PLP would come through the election with about 180 members. In terms of Parliamentary seats they'd be in a somewhat better position than the post-97 Tories, but in terms of vote share they'd have a much steeper mountain to climb.
And just you try having that "parliamentary arithmetic" debate with one of them, or didn't you ever get to enjoy that pleasure?
The modern history of France does not suggest that this is a nation with adaptable political institutions, nor that its vaunted traditions of liberty, equality and fraternity count for much when the chips are down. Monarchy has violently given way to revolution, regicide, restoration, empire, a succession of failed republics, religious wars, occupation and intermittent dictatorships, and now to one terrorist attack after another that the authorities seem powerless to prevent. The rest of Europe has never been immune to the consequences. The hour of glory has yet to arrive and no matter who ends up winning this awful election campaign, it won’t be arriving soon. Il faut cultiver notre jardin.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/frances-deplorable-election-unified-voters-disgust/
I'd imagine there's a fair number of people in Warrington who would consider lynching too nice for him, given his support for the Northern Irish child murderers.
If Labour is significantly lower than 15% (especially if the SNP vote is maxed-out, and so the main beneficiaries turn out to be the Tories and Liberal Democrats) then that would be further evidence of the continuing decline towards extinction. Certainly there have been lower Scottish splits for Labour in the GB-wide polls, but obviously those have all been based on rather small sub-samples.
With political realignment, pro- and anti-Union as well as left and right, having taken place in Scotland, you can make a plausible case for the continued relevance of the SNP, Greens, Lib Dems and Tories - but it's increasingly hard to see what purpose Scottish Labour's continued existence serves, save as a repository for a shrinking cohort of elderly, die-hard habit voters.
There is an official Radio Londres website & twitter account - but I suspect its the hashtag that's worth keeping an eye on tomorrow.
'...Bristol West is held by Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire. The Greens want to replace her with their finance spokesperson Molly Scott Cato. It’s a odd progressive alliance in which the daughter of an immigrant who spent decades working with domestic violence victims before entering Parliament is expected to stand aside for an MEP and ‘sustainability economist’ after just two years in the job.'
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/voting-green-feeling-morally-superior-lesser-mortals/
The Tories might be starting from their high point.
So might Labour.
Does anyone know the source of this poll
What people never seem to understand about coalition is that you enter one not to support your rival, but to stop them taking all the power.
In each of the last six elections, Labour's polling averages two months out were better than the vote shares recorded on the big day.
Now, in each of the last six elections, it is fair to say that they didn't start in such a dire position. On the other hand, in none of the last six elections were they led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Arf.
Meanwhile, the prospect of dozens of Labour MPs being turfed out in England and Wales is very real.
If you were planning the PM's schedule then you'd probably want her to spend three or four times as much energy on Wales as on Scotland. That's simple logic.
The survey by Opinium for the Observer, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday of last week, puts the Tories on 45% (up seven points compared with the previous week), while Labour is down three points on 26%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/opinium-observer-poll-conservatives-way-ahead-of-labour?CMP=twt_gu
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/opinium-observer-poll-conservatives-way-ahead-of-labour?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Con 45%, Lab 26%, LD 11%, Ukip 9%
This suggests that their previous survey (with a 9% Tory lead IIRC) was an outlier, overcounting Labour and Ukip and undercounting the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. These new results are much more consistent with other recent surveys.