SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Wales, like the North East, has been gradually shifting right for long time, but so many seats had huge Labour leads to begin with, that it's only now becoming noticeable.
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.
Indeed
The North East is less Tory today than it was in the 1950s/60s/70/80s. Sunderland South was Tory held until 1964 . Tynemouth until 1997. Hartlepool went Tory in 1959. Moreover, they held seats in Newcastle until the early 1990s. Your comment really makes little sense.
Speaking to my girlfriend about the vote - she thinks shy righties will make it a Le Pen - Fillon final. She will be voting Macron but thinks he has been unimpressive so far - too lightweight.
I think Macron will hold enough votes to make it through (taking a few from Melenchon supporters, who are not as left as he is and can vote for Macron with a peg over the nose), but Fillon will be very close behind.
I know why both sides probably like that sort of thing, but for local politics it really should be less of a deal, sometimes for the best of everyone these sorts of unusual arrangements are a good thing.
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on. However ... what if, for Labour, this is the 2015 General Election Part Two? What started in Scotland now happens in a couple of other regions as well?
Yes, this will simply be the 'Corybn election' - a case study in what happens when parties put up dud, fringe figures as leaders. A similar thing would have happened with IDS in 2005, but the Tories, rightly, panicked and ousted him when polls showed them slipping into third place behind the Lib Dems.
The suggestion, based simply on uniform swing as implied by recent GB-wide polling, is as follows:
To the Tories: Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside, Newport West, Newport East, Cardiff West, Cardiff South & Penarth
To Plaid: Ynys Mon
Cardiff South & Penarth is number 79 on the list of Tory target seats post-2015, requiring an 8% swing (that's so huge that I'm guessing that a Ukip to Con movement must have been factored in in this case.)
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is a Plaid seat inside the language belt, so I reckon that's a safe hold; however, the capacity potentially exists for upsets anywhere in Labour territory where (a) the Con+Ukip vote was greater in 2015 than that of the winning candidate, or at least reasonably close to it, and (b) Plaid is not already strong.
If Ukip goes totally tits-up then Torfaen (Labour defence no. 103) may come within range of the Conservatives.
Careful. The predictions are using GB-wide polling to Wales. I am not convinced that that is valid.
My guess is that the Tories will easily take the first 5 on the list (the 4 NE marginals, and Bridgend). They may take one or two others, on a good night.
Running Cardiff Council is a huge heffalump-trap that has engulfed first the LibDems and second Labour, so it is possible that the anti-Labour swing in Cardiff is above the average.
Seems a little generous - but not so far out of whack that it could be voided as an obvious error in the event the LDs win. *cries over lost Con 60/1 in Woking*
Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.
People.
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.
Labour 'might be able to coalesce around' David Miliband. 'However, the person also needs to be ruthless' Hmm. how about Ed Miliband ;-) ?
One of their top 5 targets I would have thought. Poshest seat in Greater Manchester. Voted Remain IIRC.
I think Altrincham and Sale West might have something to say about that!
My view is that the LDs should be in with about a 25-35% chance of re-taking Cheadle. Their successes over the 2001-2010 period were based on being able to squeeze the Labour vote to virtually nothing - should be plum for that treatment again.
One of their top 5 targets I would have thought. Poshest seat in Greater Manchester. Voted Remain IIRC.
Since Betfair/Paddy's LibDem line is equally priced over/under 28.5 seats, one does wonder which seats they think make up the expected 20 gains (20 relative to 2015).
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Even if it was to be a realigning election the Tories would still have no chance of winning a seat in Glasgow
I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on.
Jung speaks of "synchronicity": things that appear unconnected may not be. Churchill said "everything is always in motion everywhere" Gould speaks of "punctuated equilibrium": deep change rarely happens but when it does, it happens suddenly
Consider the anecdotage: everywhere we hear of Labour Remainers going to the Libs, Leavers of all stripes going to Cons. Labour is advertising for candidates. Women laugh at Corbyn unprompted. The sole UKIP MP resigned and tried to get the Con nom. Wales turning blue outside the Valleys. SNP leavers wavering. Sturgeon struggling, deadlock (ouch!) in Northern Ireland. May campaigning in Glasgow - Glasgow!
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the city
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning there
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Wales, like the North East, has been gradually shifting right for long time, but so many seats had huge Labour leads to begin with, that it's only now becoming noticeable.
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.
Indeed
The North East is less Tory today than it was in the 1950s/60s/70/80s. Sunderland South was Tory held until 1964 . Tynemouth until 1997. Hartlepool went Tory in 1959. Moreover, they held seats in Newcastle until the early 1990s. Your comment really makes little sense.
Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.
People.
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.
The best bet for Labour is for May to get her 100 seat majority (if only around 50 or 60 Corbynistas will say he did OK) and then replace him with Starmer/Cooper and force Labour slowly back towards sanity. It is probably too early yet for a potential election winner like David Miliband or Chuka Umunna to win the leadership and they are both Blairites so will not yet be able to take the party with them, Starmer is a Kinnockite and Cooper a Brownite
One of their top 5 targets I would have thought. Poshest seat in Greater Manchester. Voted Remain IIRC.
Since Betfair/Paddy's LibDem line is equally priced over/under 28.5 seats, one does wonder which seats they think make up the expected 20 gains (20 relative to 2015).
The Lib Dems lost 49 seats last time. Even if they were odds-against to lose them all (say 45% chance of regaining each seat on its own, 55% chance of losing each seat) the expected gains would still be above 20, despite none of them individually being an expected gain. That's without taking into account any other seat they didn't previously hold.
Speaking to my girlfriend about the vote - she thinks shy righties will make it a Le Pen - Fillon final. She will be voting Macron but thinks he has been unimpressive so far - too lightweight.
I think Macron will hold enough votes to make it through (taking a few from Melenchon supporters, who are not as left as he is and can vote for Macron with a peg over the nose), but Fillon will be very close behind.
Some of Mélenchon's supporters could give a clothespeg vote to Macron in R2, but in R1 if they reconsider voting for him they are much more likely to vote for Le Pen, abstain, or perhaps even vote for Hamon, which is who some of them intended to vote for until recently.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
but hte point is VAT is not even applied to many everyday items like milk and bread. and the wealthy pay much more VAT then the poor in any case.
Isn't it a tax where the middle class pay the highest percentage, even if the ultra wealthy pay more in absolute terms. There is only so much even Croesus can buy.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
but hte point is VAT is not even applied to many everyday items like milk and bread. and the wealthy pay much more VAT then the poor in any case.
Isn't it a tax where the middle class pay the highest percentage, even if the ultra wealthy pay more in absolute terms. There is only so much even Croesus can buy.
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'
I agree with that, but I know many very intelligent and sensible people who think the LDs simply have to rule out a coalition, so Eoin is not alone. Even though I am sure even were it an option the LDs would say no to a deal, that they might consider it will cost them.
I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on.
Jung speaks of "synchronicity": things that appear unconnected may not be. Churchill said "everything is always in motion everywhere" Gould speaks of "punctuated equilibrium": deep change rarely happens but when it does, it happens suddenly
Consider the anecdotage: everywhere we hear of Labour Remainers going to the Libs, Leavers of all stripes going to Cons. Labour is advertising for candidates. Women laugh at Corbyn unprompted. The sole UKIP MP resigned and tried to get the Con nom. Wales turning blue outside the Valleys. SNP leavers wavering. Sturgeon struggling, deadlock (ouch!) in Northern Ireland. May campaigning in Glasgow - Glasgow!
Interesting times...
Many thanks for that, Mr Viewcode. I suppose we could add Rosa Luxembourg's theory to your list, that it is never possible to steer "revolutions" in the ways that would appeal to leading "revolutionaries" - things never happen quite in the ways expected by the experts. So, I take on board all and everything you have said, but maybe I am just too old, too defeatist and too experienced to believe the hype just yet. I have been shown these false dawns too often since 1976, and they never arrive.
Yes, another nice spot, thanks. Obviously a bit of a long shot for the Tories, but with that high UKIP vote share in 2015, maybe not out of reach.
I don't see it myself, but odds on Cheadle gratefully taken. I have £100 under 28.5, so I'm picking off a few, a few quid here and there, to cut the risk.
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'
I agree with that, but I know many very intelligent and sensible people who think the LDs simply have to rule out a coalition, so Eoin is not alone. Even though I am sure even were it an option the LDs would say no to a deal, that they might consider it will cost them.
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'
I wonder if Farron should say something like, "we will only go in coalition with whichever party agrees to keep us in the EEA". Takes the burden off of the LDs to 'pick a side'.
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'
I wonder if Farron should say something like, "we will only go in coalition with whichever party agrees to keep us in the EEA". Takes the burden off of the LDs to 'pick a side'.
And dumps it very heavily on Labour and the SNP.......
I suspect that Farron's refusal to rule out entering coalition with the Tories will go a long way to restoring their toxicity with left of centre voters. Probably the best news so far for Corbyn in this campaign.
I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on.
Jung speaks of "synchronicity": things that appear unconnected may not be. Churchill said "everything is always in motion everywhere" Gould speaks of "punctuated equilibrium": deep change rarely happens but when it does, it happens suddenly
Consider the anecdotage: everywhere we hear of Labour Remainers going to the Libs, Leavers of all stripes going to Cons. Labour is advertising for candidates. Women laugh at Corbyn unprompted. The sole UKIP MP resigned and tried to get the Con nom. Wales turning blue outside the Valleys. SNP leavers wavering. Sturgeon struggling, deadlock (ouch!) in Northern Ireland. May campaigning in Glasgow - Glasgow!
If you are a fan of Gould's and Churchill's quotes, together they make the constantly co-evolving and changing evolutionary fitness maps that is pretty much how I see the world.
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'
I wonder if Farron should say something like, "we will only go in coalition with whichever party agrees to keep us in the EEA". Takes the burden off of the LDs to 'pick a side'.
And dumps it very heavily on Labour and the SNP.......
Except that he cannot afford (and wouldn't want) to raise the possibility of putting Corbyn into no, 10.
Yes, another nice spot, thanks. Obviously a bit of a long shot for the Tories, but with that high UKIP vote share in 2015, maybe not out of reach.
Re the UKIP vote. Are we making the same mistake so many made in 2015?
That 50% of 2010 Lib Dem vote would automatically switch to Labour in 2015?
Don't get me wrong, I think that's a good bet but that's what's at the back of my mind.
I think a lot of 2010 Lib Dems switched to 2015 UKIP "none of the above" protest votes.
So yes it is a mistake to assume they'd automatically go blue now. Many are likely to return yellow/orange or stay purple or anything else really other than red.
There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
VAT is regressive though.
but hte point is VAT is not even applied to many everyday items like milk and bread. and the wealthy pay much more VAT then the poor in any case.
Isn't it a tax where the middle class pay the highest percentage, even if the ultra wealthy pay more in absolute terms. There is only so much even Croesus can buy.
Don Valley electorate: comparatively old, very white, voted heavily for Leave, Con+Ukip vote greater than that of Labour in 2015.
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.
LDs 20/1 for Chippenham. I'd give them a better chance than that on local strength in the town (although there is the hinterland and Wiltshires moderate Leave vote to consider), but enough that it's worth a shot? Eh, I only deal in tiny amounts anyway, why not.
There is one question that I cant answer about this election so I'm putting it out to the knowledgeable people of PB.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.
I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on.
May campaigning in Glasgow - Glasgow!
She's in Glasgow but her audience is England.
Classic political theater, and - I suspect - rather effective.
Don Valley electorate: comparatively old, very white, voted heavily for Leave, Con+Ukip vote greater than that of Labour in 2015.
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.
Sounds like the kind of seat that will fall if, and only if, this is a Labour wipeout of existential levels. At the moment that looks at least likely to me. The public may be minded to teach Labour a lesson about loony left fantasy politics.
Where does it say in the piece that Thomson is the sitting SNP mp?
She was elected as an SNP candidate
Doesn't make her a sitting SNP MP unless she still holds the whip.
Is Carswell a sitting UKIP MP?
For the purposes of the GE seat changes Carswell's seat will be counted as UKIP and Thomson's seat will be counted as SNP.
Yes i get that, but HYUFD called her personally a sitting SNP MP, not the seat an SNP held seat. Since the whip has been withdrawn she is not a sitting SNP MP.
As far as Statistics are concerned Clacton is currently UKIP held but Carswell is not a sitting UKIP MP nor is Zac Goldsmith a sitting Tory MP despite the fact that his seat is Tory held for seat change comparisons.
There is one question that I cant answer about this election so I'm putting it out to the knowledgeable people of PB.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.
Bearing in mind if Corbyn wins school fees will be going up (not say a dozen other bash-the-wealthy proposals), I suspect a few people can be found to dig deep.
I suspect that Farron's refusal to rule out entering coalition with the Tories will go a long way to restoring their toxicity with left of centre voters. Probably the best news so far for Corbyn in this campaign.
There is one question that I cant answer about this election so I'm putting it out to the knowledgeable people of PB.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.
Probably a combination of all 3, I very much doubt the money won't be there.
Listening to voters on the media the one question that will put Theresa May in Downing Street with an increased majority
Who do you want to run the Country ?
Indeed. By the end of the process everyone will know the choice is 'leadership' or 'chaos'.
Commentators, the Press and us anoraks are going to be bored to tears because we're paying attention - ordinary voters aren't so much, so the Tories are right to take a simple message and keep hammering it. Relentlessly.
There is one question that I cant answer about this election so I'm putting it out to the knowledgeable people of PB.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.
With respect, I think it's 3)
Cons have no problem at all fundraising from both big & small donors.
Their problem is deciding which donors not to take money off right now.
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....
Plaid have considered a coalition with Tories in the past IIRC. Wasn’t there a ‘Rainbow’ in Wales at one point?
The real problem with the election of Farron and his positioning post the 2015 disaster is that the Lib Dems haven't been eager enough to distance themselves from Labour, rather than the Tories.
If voters in Southern England thought they could rely on the Lib Dems to act as a kind of wet centrist, Cameron-Clegg party - and to consider deals with the Tories, but explicitly not to touch either Labour or the SNP with a ten foot bargepole - then they might be doing rather better down here. Especially as Labour at the Parliamentary level looks, more than ever, like a spent force almost everywhere south of the Severn-Wash line except London.
Although that said, the whole Europhilia thing is something of a complication for them in most of the South West...
Not backing it, because I have already, but I remain perplexed by Macron not being favourite to lead the first round, given he's top in practically every poll.
The margin is small, certainly, so it's possible he won't be, but it still looks rather counter-intuitive.
There is one question that I cant answer about this election so I'm putting it out to the knowledgeable people of PB.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.
3 mainly and don't underestimate how many are prepared to donate to avoid PM Corbyn.
From memory the Tories have been getting more donations than any other party on the last few reported statistics. In fact last time even the Lib Dems got more in donations than Labour - but Labour got more funds when Short money was taken into account.
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.
I believe the stat shown yesterday on here was that the top 1% earn 11% of the income and pay 27% of the taxes. Not making any comment on whether this is good or bad, just filling in one of the gaps.
27% of income tax. They pay little VAT proportionally as they are unable to spend most of their incomes, so probably less than 5% of VAT and excise duties and council tax.
Government income from VAT, excise duties and Council tax is more than that from income taxes.
So my guess is that the top 1% get 11% of the income and around 16% of taxes overall. They could easily afford much more tax and still live very comfortably.
As a member of the 1%, I suspect that we pay a great deal more than 16% of all taxes levied on individuals. Don't forget that pretty much all capital gains tax is going to be paid by the 1%, and a very large proportion of estate taxes too.
What do you expect? It's not as if Theresa May is going to say "well I was dead set on leaving but that Guy is such a charmer I can't help myself. Let's stay after all."
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....
Plaid have considered a coalition with Tories in the past IIRC. Wasn’t there a ‘Rainbow’ in Wales at one point?
The real problem with the election of Farron and his positioning post the 2015 disaster is that the Lib Dems haven't been eager enough to distance themselves from Labour, rather than the Tories.
If voters in Southern England thought they could rely on the Lib Dems to act as a kind of wet centrist, Cameron-Clegg party - and to consider deals with the Tories, but explicitly not to touch either Labour or the SNP with a ten foot bargepole - then they might be doing rather better down here. Especially as Labour at the Parliamentary level looks, more than ever, like a spent force almost everywhere south of the Severn-Wash line except London.
Although that said, the whole Europhilia thing is something of a complication for them in most of the South West...
It's complicated. I would not rule out LD for working with Labour (usually, I would if Lab are led by Corbyn), but perhaps for being raised deep in the Tory shires I am naturally more wary of Lab than Con, and I'd personally prefer the LDs be open to all sides, even if they prefer one over the other, so the approach you describe might do better with me and some other southerners, but in terms of maximising their vote and getting the best chance to win seats, repudiating Con seems the better approach.
Problem is now people will see the first message, that it is not ruled out, and even if that changes not all will see it, same as with the homosexual sinning bit. I already know one LD leaning Tory who was put off by that issue.
Mr Dancer perhaps punters are factoring in that Macron is an unknown electoral quantity and so plenty of people may say they will vote for him but not bother. Plus perhaps a shy Le Pen factor is being added into bettors calculations. There are a number of reasons why in what looks like a four way photo finish the horse that looks slightly in front may not be backed as such. Not that I'm any sort of expert.
I suspect that Farron's refusal to rule out entering coalition with the Tories will go a long way to restoring their toxicity with left of centre voters. Probably the best news so far for Corbyn in this campaign.
I predict he'll reverse on it before too long.
I think in fact Farron’s taking the sensible line that he’s not ruling out etc, but he’s said in the past that he thinks it wildly unlikely. However I agree that he’ll make it a lot clearer soon!
What do you expect? It's not as if Theresa May is going to say "well I was dead set on leaving but that Guy is such a charmer I can't help myself. Let's stay after all."
No but as someone who was a reluctant Remainer he is the type of Eurocrat who would push me across the aisle.
Mr. Jim, that does make some sense, but he has been leading almost all polls for a long time. Also, if you're right about the thinking (and it's a credible view) then Fillon would probably be the value to lead the first round.
Question is- is this a "normal" landslide, of the sort Conservatives got in '83 PR '87, or Labour got in '97 or '01? In other words, will the loser clearly lose but equally clearly Stoll be in second place? Or is something else (and very strange) in the air? Don't know what, though.
Don Valley electorate: comparatively old, very white, voted heavily for Leave, Con+Ukip vote greater than that of Labour in 2015.
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.
Sounds like the kind of seat that will fall if, and only if, this is a Labour wipeout of existential levels. At the moment that looks at least likely to me. The public may be minded to teach Labour a lesson about loony left fantasy politics.
Don Valley electorate: comparatively old, very white, voted heavily for Leave, Con+Ukip vote greater than that of Labour in 2015.
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.
Sounds like the kind of seat that will fall if, and only if, this is a Labour wipeout of existential levels. At the moment that looks at least likely to me. The public may be minded to teach Labour a lesson about loony left fantasy politics.
Is it likely?
Most people want a reasonable opposition and are suspicious of gargantuan majorities.
The last gargantuan majority led to a search in Iraq for human shredding machines, and the one before that led to the first Poll Tax since John of Gaunt. I shudder to think what spectacular and disastrous inanity will happen this time if there is a 150+ majority.
And Jeremy is not dislikable at a personal level. And the British don’t like seeing underdogs smashed to smithereens. And most Labour supporters (whether Corbynistas or not) want the Labour party to survive.
And (perhaps the true saviour), most Labour candidates will be two-faced. They will be Hyper-remainers in Cambridge or Bermondsey. But, in the South Wales Valleys, they will be saying Freedom of Movement is going to end. Lying almost always works in politics.
A lot of humorous election posters have been stuck up in Paris. The effect may be to increase abstention.
I wonder who's paying? Some of the posters feature Disney characters. The Disney CEO, Bob Iger, is a member of Donald Trump's Strategic and Policy Forum.
Certain parties may exert a big push today, without minding that we are supposed to be in "election silence".
Report in the Daily Mail, in an article that they headline with the words "'More terror attacks will bring civil war' warns Marine Le Pen".
Examples:
Yep - the message does seem to be "Don't vote", which will help the candidates whose supporters are most committed to voting. Meaning Le Pen.
Tosh.
This will have absolutely no impact on turnout, which will probably top last time around.
And why do you think Le Pen's supporters are most likely to turn out? She's had the highest certainty to vote for a year, and has had - absent Hamon - the worst momentum in the polls.
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....
If all these parties refuse to go into coalition with the Conservatives, how much hope is there for them ever taking part in a government if we move to a more proportional voting system?
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....
Plaid have considered a coalition with Tories in the past IIRC. Wasn’t there a ‘Rainbow’ in Wales at one point?
Back in 2007 leaders of Pc Cons and Lib Dems backed idea of rainbow coalition but vetoed in by Lib Dems at a special conference - PC ended up going into coalition with Labour
Mr. Jim, that does make some sense, but he has been leading almost all polls for a long time. Also, if you're right about the thinking (and it's a credible view) then Fillon would probably be the value to lead the first round.
Mr Dancer, I think it's anybody's guess as from what I've seen the top 4 are clustered more or less within the MOE. I would suggest that almost all the candidates you can make plausible cases for why they'd underperform their poll. There are also cases for why they'd each outperform. Nothing would entirely surprise me.
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
Yes, he's absolutely right. We all know why Theresa did it - cashing in on the Corbyn card. But let's not fall for any of the piety about it strengthening her Brexit position. It won't and anyone thinking otherwise is in for a disappointment.
Just seen the odds put up by Betfair and PP for Carshalton and Wallington 9/4 Cons seems generous considering UKIP may not stand and it was a leave constituency. Also CChQ are making this a target seaT Lds 1/4 DYOR
Just seen the odds put up by Betfair and PP for Carshalton and Wallington 9/4 Cons seems generous considering UKIP may not stand and it was a leave constituency. Also CChQ are making this a target seaT Lds 1/4 DYOR
Have you seen the 14/1 for the LDs in Cheadle? (It may have changed since I last looked).
Question is- is this a "normal" landslide, of the sort Conservatives got in '83 PR '87, or Labour got in '97 or '01? In other words, will the loser clearly lose but equally clearly Stoll be in second place? Or is something else (and very strange) in the air? Don't know what, though.
Don Valley electorate: comparatively old, very white, voted heavily for Leave, Con+Ukip vote greater than that of Labour in 2015.
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.
Sounds like the kind of seat that will fall if, and only if, this is a Labour wipeout of existential levels. At the moment that looks at least likely to me. The public may be minded to teach Labour a lesson about loony left fantasy politics.
Labour is going to emerge from this election clearly as the second largest party, and by a very long stretch. Most likely the PLP will be reduced to numbers not dissimilar to those of John Major's Tories in 1997, although the Conservative majority won't be nearly as enormous as Tony Blair's was because he controlled most of the seats in Scotland, of course.
If Labour can recover, and how long this might take - even assuming that it doesn't split again - is open to question. Following both 1979 and 1997, the defeated Opposition had to wait four Parliaments before returning to power...
"unless the UK government requests transitional arrangements to the contrary, and these requests are agreed by all EU countries, UK citizens will have no more of a right to holiday, travel and study in EU countries than tourists from Moscow or students from Mumbai”.
I'm sure the Spanish tourist industry will be thrilled
Every time I've travelled to a major EU capital there have been plenty of subcontinental students and when I've visited the right parts plenty of Muscovite tourists. There doesn't seem to be huge prohibitive barriers to either in current EU rules.
Is it possible to bet on the LDs coming second in the popular vote? Because if the Labour campaign implodes over the next few weeks they could take second place by default.
Just got back from delivering for the Tories in a South London marginal seat. Very large number of volunteers; we covered a decent portion of the constituency in a single day!
We have the bit between our teeth. It feels like Labour are still on the starting line.
Comments
I think Macron will hold enough votes to make it through (taking a few from Melenchon supporters, who are not as left as he is and can vote for Macron with a peg over the nose), but Fillon will be very close behind.
My guess is that the Tories will easily take the first 5 on the list (the 4 NE marginals, and Bridgend). They may take one or two others, on a good night.
Running Cardiff Council is a huge heffalump-trap that has engulfed first the LibDems and second Labour, so it is possible that the anti-Labour swing in Cardiff is above the average.
Labour 33% (-2)
Conservative 28% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 13% (no change)
UKIP 13% (-1)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+2)
Others 2% (-1)
figures in brackets from previous poll in Sept 2016
Con to win Don Valley 8/1
My view is that the LDs should be in with about a 25-35% chance of re-taking Cheadle. Their successes over the 2001-2010 period were based on being able to squeeze the Labour vote to virtually nothing - should be plum for that treatment again.
This better be a tory lead in Wales and not "clickbait"....yet again....
Churchill said "everything is always in motion everywhere"
Gould speaks of "punctuated equilibrium": deep change rarely happens but when it does, it happens suddenly
Consider the anecdotage: everywhere we hear of Labour Remainers going to the Libs, Leavers of all stripes going to Cons. Labour is advertising for candidates. Women laugh at Corbyn unprompted. The sole UKIP MP resigned and tried to get the Con nom. Wales turning blue outside the Valleys. SNP leavers wavering. Sturgeon struggling, deadlock (ouch!) in Northern Ireland. May campaigning in Glasgow - Glasgow!
Interesting times...
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855789723813650433
Oh dear, doesn't he understand 'grown ups' and 'not everyone has a visceral hatred of Tories'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Valley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
There's no EdM leader boost for Labour as in 2015.
That 50% of 2010 Lib Dem vote would automatically switch to Labour in 2015?
Don't get me wrong, I think that's a good bet but that's what's at the back of my mind.
I think he think's this is a winner.....so obviously they'd have to go into coalition with each other.....I think someone's got a name for that.....
'So, Mr Corbyn, the Lib Dems say they'll go into coalition with someone who will keep us in the EEA - will Labour?'
If you are a fan of Gould's and Churchill's quotes, together they make the constantly co-evolving and changing evolutionary fitness maps that is pretty much how I see the world.
So yes it is a mistake to assume they'd automatically go blue now. Many are likely to return yellow/orange or stay purple or anything else really other than red.
Who do you want to run the Country ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435268/EU-Brexit-ordinator-savages-Theresa-May.html
The Labour majority in the seat is substantial - it's 101 on the Labour defence list - so it's really only available if Ukip completely dissolves into a puddle and nearly all of its voters back the Tories. So Labour will most likely hold it, but it's not an impossible target for the Tories. Electoral Calculus currently rates the probabilities of success as Lab 53%, Con 36%, Ukip 8%.
How is Mrs May going to fund the tory campaign?
Now that Len McCluscky has won the Unite election he has over £15 mil sitting in that unions political fund to spend as he sees fit, and with half a million members to badger for small donations, in short the lab campaign is going to be well funded, whether the people in charge will know how to spend it well is another matter but they will have the money.
As for the conservatives, I don't see it, last time it took 5 years to build up a war chest, and much of that was donors that Cameron built up personal relationships with, so may not be as willing to give as much to May. I can see some donors who where remainers sitting this election out as well, and as for small donors, if they think the election is in the bag many will not give, or not give as much as before.
I can think o 3 possibility's but non seem likely to me, It might be that:
1) Mrs May thinks that in a short campaign it will not mater that much.
2) She has one or more big donors lined up.
3) I have misjudged the situation and there is a flood of small donors coming in to Con HQ.
Classic political theater, and - I suspect - rather effective.
As far as Statistics are concerned Clacton is currently UKIP held but Carswell is not a sitting UKIP MP nor is Zac Goldsmith a sitting Tory MP despite the fact that his seat is Tory held for seat change comparisons.
Cons have no problem at all fundraising from both big & small donors.
Their problem is deciding which donors not to take money off right now.
If voters in Southern England thought they could rely on the Lib Dems to act as a kind of wet centrist, Cameron-Clegg party - and to consider deals with the Tories, but explicitly not to touch either Labour or the SNP with a ten foot bargepole - then they might be doing rather better down here. Especially as Labour at the Parliamentary level looks, more than ever, like a spent force almost everywhere south of the Severn-Wash line except London.
Although that said, the whole Europhilia thing is something of a complication for them in most of the South West...
The margin is small, certainly, so it's possible he won't be, but it still looks rather counter-intuitive.
From memory the Tories have been getting more donations than any other party on the last few reported statistics. In fact last time even the Lib Dems got more in donations than Labour - but Labour got more funds when Short money was taken into account.
Problem is now people will see the first message, that it is not ruled out, and even if that changes not all will see it, same as with the homosexual sinning bit. I already know one LD leaning Tory who was put off by that issue.
However I agree that he’ll make it a lot clearer soon!
Most people want a reasonable opposition and are suspicious of gargantuan majorities.
The last gargantuan majority led to a search in Iraq for human shredding machines, and the one before that led to the first Poll Tax since John of Gaunt. I shudder to think what spectacular and disastrous inanity will happen this time if there is a 150+ majority.
And Jeremy is not dislikable at a personal level. And the British don’t like seeing underdogs smashed to smithereens. And most Labour supporters (whether Corbynistas or not) want the Labour party to survive.
And (perhaps the true saviour), most Labour candidates will be two-faced. They will be Hyper-remainers in Cambridge or Bermondsey. But, in the South Wales Valleys, they will be saying Freedom of Movement is going to end. Lying almost always works in politics.
This will have absolutely no impact on turnout, which will probably top last time around.
And why do you think Le Pen's supporters are most likely to turn out? She's had the highest certainty to vote for a year, and has had - absent Hamon - the worst momentum in the polls.
Good afternoon, everybody.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/theresa-may-election-power-grab-slammed-guy-verhofstadt-brexit-negotiator
I'm sure the Spanish tourist industry will be thrilled
9/4 Cons seems generous considering UKIP may not stand and it was a leave constituency.
Also CChQ are making this a target seaT
Lds 1/4
DYOR
If Labour can recover, and how long this might take - even assuming that it doesn't split again - is open to question. Following both 1979 and 1997, the defeated Opposition had to wait four Parliaments before returning to power...
It's like people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 and were annoyed when they went into government.
We have the bit between our teeth. It feels like Labour are still on the starting line.