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Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?0
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Tories (or to be fair, the Coalition) tax the rich:
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/8557613563389992960 -
She was elected as an SNP candidateTheuniondivvie said:
Where does it say in the piece that Thomson is the sitting SNP mp?HYUFD said:SNP does not endorse sitting SNP MP in LD target Edinburgh West, forcing her to stand down
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-396787940 -
Widely seen as the 'heir to Blair' by media/centrist and Blue Labour. Absence of talent on Labour benches.matt said:Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
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I distinctly remember this site doing polling on the popularity of various parties and figures a few months ago (I don't recall exactly when, possibly not too long after the election of Trump...?)OldKingCole said:
Mixed group of middle-class (U3a) OAP’s yesterday; was quite surprised at the anti-Sturgeon feeling. 8 of us, 4 hostile, and I mean hostile, 2 neutral -ish and 2 (uncluding me) ‘quite like”.Black_Rook said:
SNP bashing is a guaranteed vote-winner in the rest of the country. Theresa May should do it as often as possible, especially because attempts by Labour to do similar (even when made) sound inauthentic. First and foremost, because Corbyn (and most of the Far Left and their Champagne Socialist fellow travellers) want to break up Britain. And secondly, some of the more wildly optimistic ones think they might need the SNP's votes to support their Government if they somehow fall just short of an overall majority (no laughing at the back please.)CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
How are we voting otherwise? 3 Left or Centre Left, one anti-Corbyn, one possibly UKIP, 2 didn’t say, 1 Tory.
The results were broken down by Leave and Remain. The SNP got a broadly neutral reception amongst Remainers, i.e. about as many of those who offered an opinion approved as disapproved.
Amongst Leavers, they were about as welcome as the Black Death. Right down there with Putin.0 -
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.CarlottaVance said:Tories (or to be fair, the Coalition) tax the rich:
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/8557613563389992960 -
He didn't say the money would come from him! Just that much to the candidate.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Could get expensive for the Saint...kle4 said:I see DanHodges is having fun this morning
£1,000 to the first major party candidate to tweet "Pretty disappointing reception on the doorstep this morning. Was expecting better".
£2,000 to the candidate who tweets "This election is about standing up for slovenly, dishonest families".
£3,000 to the candidate who tweets "This election is not too close to call. Every vote doesn't count. I've got it in the bag/lost".
https://twitter.com/agriffithsmp/status/8557449550584094730 -
Fair play, an honest admission that all that 'talking to actual voters' and wanting to 'represent every person in the whole United Kingdom' is just so much Tessybollox.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.0 -
Perhaps so, but I suspect from that list he'll be in profit overall. The shorter odd Tory & LD seats all look good prospects. Hayes & Harlington would be hilarious! In some ways JC himself is more vulnerable given the very different demographic of his constituency, but unfortunately neither are realistic prospects no matter how disastrous the campaign is for Labour.rcs1000 said:
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.Torby_Fennel said:I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7
Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4
Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1
Belfast East: Alliance 1/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7
Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11
Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6
Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15
Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7
Bristol West: Green 5/4
Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5
Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1
Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10
Sheffield Central: Green 25/1
Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)0 -
My favourite catastrophic gauchie was the BBC presenter who mentioned 'Her Royal Highness, the Queen' as she boarded the barge for her Jubilee parade.ToryJim said:
Plenty of journalists and commentators don't know the difference between head of state and head of government either.CarlottaVance said:'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/8557537826632744960 -
I think what you are overlooking is the sheer desperation of the PLP that wish Corbyn gone.matt said:Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
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Doesn't make her a sitting SNP MP unless she still holds the whip.HYUFD said:
She was elected as an SNP candidateTheuniondivvie said:
Where does it say in the piece that Thomson is the sitting SNP mp?HYUFD said:SNP does not endorse sitting SNP MP in LD target Edinburgh West, forcing her to stand down
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39678794
Is Carswell a sitting UKIP MP?0 -
That is worrisome - it's a bloody easy thing to understandToryJim said:
Plenty of journalists and commentators don't know the difference between head of state and head of government either.CarlottaVance said:'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/8557537826632744960 -
So If we see Corbyn visit a seat, can we/should we assume labour Party HQ have given up on that seat?Black_Rook said:
Oh, indeed. The piece has something to say about that as well:IanB2 said:Labour candidates struggling to defend their seats don't actually want Corbyn to come visiting, so he has to have a reason to go elsewhere. We were speculating about this on Thursday.
Even as leader Jeremy Corbyn campaigns for victory on June 8, officials in the party’s headquarters see him as a liability and are focused instead on minimizing the scale of defeat, according to two people familiar with the strategies, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Corbyn will tour districts the party needs to win to gain a majority in Parliament, as staff at headquarters, who control party funds, plan the defense of seats they think the party might be able to hold against an onslaught from May’s Conservatives. That could mean only those with majorities of 5,000 votes or more, according to one person.
“Normally you would expect leadership tours to tally closely with the party’s list of target seats, but Corbyn’s not the electoral asset you would expect leaders to be,” Justin Fisher, professor of politics at Brunel University, said in a telephone interview. “The challenge Labour faces is focusing their campaign on the local contests rather than the national party.”
Send the leader off to be laughed at in Telford and Corby, whilst scrambling to save the likes of Jon Cruddas and Sue Hayman from the axe. Again, sounds wholly plausible.
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I believe the stat shown yesterday on here was that the top 1% earn 11% of the income and pay 27% of the taxes. Not making any comment on whether this is good or bad, just filling in one of the gaps.rcs1000 said:
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.CarlottaVance said:Tories (or to be fair, the Coalition) tax the rich:
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/855761356338999296-1 -
Not quite, they do support the 'sensitive' rape clause.Alistair said:0 -
That's one factor, but government action, since 2008, is another:rcs1000 said:
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.CarlottaVance said:Tories (or to be fair, the Coalition) tax the rich:
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/855761356338999296
Increased reliance on a small number of income tax payers follows a longer-run trend driven by above-average increases in top incomes. Since 2008, this reliance has been largely driven by increases in taxes on the rich and tax cuts - mostly via a higher personal allowance - for low- and middle-income taxpayers.
https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/bns/BN_182.pdf0 -
Which the SNP has the power to do something about, but won't.....Theuniondivvie said:
Not quite, they do support the 'sensitive' rape clause.Alistair said:0 -
Given Labour need 411 new candidates, why doesn't the good doctor stand for Labour? He spends more time on Labour PR than most full time Labour MPs and spinners already.0
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I wouldn't say totally detached. Hopefully we will see increases in wages (and therefore reductions in tax credits) as economy performs better. But little can be done about pensions and disabilities except in the long run.HurstLlama said:
Thanks for posting that link, Mr. Rkrkrk. The interesting, maybe frightening is a better word, is that the welfare bill is now largely detached from economic performance. That is to say it doesn't matter if the economy is growing or in recession the welfare bill is only ever going to go up.rkrkrk said:
For better or worse people think of unemployment benefits when they hear welfare.Sandpit said:
Wow, so the four biggest items on the budget, accounting for 69% of government spending, are *all* underestimated by the public. Only the fifth item, debt interest at 7%, is accurately known. All the smaller items, accounting for only 24% in total, are overestimated in their significance.calum said:Interesting survey
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/09/public-attitudes-tax-distribution/
TL:DR; spending isn't coming down until the welfare bill does.
As an exercise go to http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending and try to guess how the welfare budget is broken down. Even knowing that unemployment is overestimated, and having been warned by me, i bet you'll still over estimate it!
So either taxes continue to rise or even bigger cuts are made elsewhere. We cannot keep cutting law enforcement and defence and Health and overseas aid are ring fenced to the extent that they will also continue to climb. How high can Hammond push taxes?
Housing benefit could be brought down significantly by building more council houses IMO... I think there are also likely to be big hidden benefits from choosing council housing over paying for private rental accommodation.
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For the purposes of the GE seat changes Carswell's seat will be counted as UKIP and Thomson's seat will be counted as SNP.Philip_Thompson said:
Doesn't make her a sitting SNP MP unless she still holds the whip.HYUFD said:
She was elected as an SNP candidateTheuniondivvie said:
Where does it say in the piece that Thomson is the sitting SNP mp?HYUFD said:SNP does not endorse sitting SNP MP in LD target Edinburgh West, forcing her to stand down
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39678794
Is Carswell a sitting UKIP MP?0 -
So is debt and deficit....most journos screw that up as well.kle4 said:
That is worrisome - it's a bloody easy thing to understandToryJim said:
Plenty of journalists and commentators don't know the difference between head of state and head of government either.CarlottaVance said:'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/8557537826632744960 -
£20,000 would have been "eccentric" ?Torby_Fennel said:
I'm not sure I can be classed in with the insane for staking £2 on it though... risking £200 or £2,000 maybe... But no £2 bet is insane, surely?rcs1000 said:
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)
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Carswell left UKIP, the MP was elected as an SNP candidate and wanted to stay in the SNP but they withdrew the whip over her expensesPhilip_Thompson said:
Doesn't make her a sitting SNP MP unless she still holds the whip.HYUFD said:
She was elected as an SNP candidateTheuniondivvie said:
Where does it say in the piece that Thomson is the sitting SNP mp?HYUFD said:SNP does not endorse sitting SNP MP in LD target Edinburgh West, forcing her to stand down
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39678794
Is Carswell a sitting UKIP MP?0 -
Re: the Ukip collapse and its potential value to the Tories, have just spotted this...
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/855690637378584576
From a financial point of view if nothing else, it would make good sense to find an excuse to radically cut down their slate of candidates. The Liberal Democrats could afford to shoulder the burden of hundreds of lost deposits in 2015. Ukip can't do that in 2017.0 -
OMG...he is even more bonkers than Jezza...Floater said:He has previously suggested companies should be banned from sacking people and workers should be given powers to take over their businesses.
Mr Fisher has also backed abolishing the City of London and ending tax havens in the Channel Islands and the Cayman Islands.
The hard-Left ideas were contained in a book, The Failed Experiment: And How to Build an Economy That Works, which was published in 2014.
Mr Fisher questioned why politicians were "obsessed with economic growth"0 -
https://twitter.com/russellcfuller/status/855762667683950592Scrapheap_as_was said:It's all kicking off in the Fed Cup - Nastase sent off and Konta in tears.
what did he say i wonder?0 -
He looks about 12, which actually doesn't surprise me.Floater said:0 -
I am sure May would love to win 100% of the vote but this is the UK and not North Korea, she needs a clear majority nothing moreTheuniondivvie said:
Fair play, an honest admission that all that 'talking to actual voters' and wanting to 'represent every person in the whole United Kingdom' is just so much Tessybollox.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.0 -
Labour’s shortage of parliamentary candidates can be easily solved if they simply lowered the entry level bar, hell, even IOS could be selected...FrancisUrquhart said:Given Labour need 411 new candidates, why doesn't the good doctor stand for Labour? He spends more time on Labour PR than most full time Labour MPs and spinners already.
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Lots of detail on https://twitter.com/simonrbriggsScrapheap_as_was said:
https://twitter.com/russellcfuller/status/855762667683950592Scrapheap_as_was said:It's all kicking off in the Fed Cup - Nastase sent off and Konta in tears.
what did he say i wonder?
this mess began when umpire warned crowd about respecting the players and Nastase said "It's not the opera, what's your ----ing problem"
Then he was warned, argued further, got himself ejected. He left court with a "----ing a--hole" to referee and 2 "----ing bitches" to Brits
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FrancisUrquhart said:
OMG...he is even more bonkers than Jezza...Floater said:He has previously suggested companies should be banned from sacking people and workers should be given powers to take over their businesses.
Mr Fisher has also backed abolishing the City of London and ending tax havens in the Channel Islands and the Cayman Islands.
The hard-Left ideas were contained in a book, The Failed Experiment: And How to Build an Economy That Works, which was published in 2014.
Mr Fisher questioned why politicians were "obsessed with economic growth"
Aren't the tax policies of the Channel and Cayman Islands decided in house and HMG has no jurisdiction over them?0 -
bit unimaginative...MyBurningEars said:
https://twitter.com/simonrbriggs/status/855757395439620097Scrapheap_as_was said:
https://twitter.com/russellcfuller/status/855762667683950592Scrapheap_as_was said:It's all kicking off in the Fed Cup - Nastase sent off and Konta in tears.
what did he say i wonder?0 -
I think that's a bit harsh. I'm no fan of May, and I encourage politicians to try and gain support even in less than fertile territory for their parties, but they have limited resources (well, they'll probably behave more carefully this time at least), and cold calculation would be there's not much to be gained from the PM going to places where they have no chance, and plenty of chance for very bad optics, it doesn't mean she doesn't want to talk to actual voters or represent every person (the former I'm sure no politician wants, outside of election time anyway), and it is unfair to paint not visiting a place, even a significant place, as the same as thinking wanting to represent it as bollocks, and 'talking to actual voters' does not just mean 'talking to people who don't like me' just as it does not mean 'talking only to people who like me'.Theuniondivvie said:
Fair play, an honest admission that all that 'talking to actual voters' and wanting to 'represent every person in the whole United Kingdom' is just so much Tessybollox.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Not all parties can be like the SNP and (as of 2015) be competitive in every seat they contest.0 -
He is having quite a week, with his racist comments over Serena Williams the other day.MyBurningEars said:
https://twitter.com/simonrbriggs/status/855757395439620097Scrapheap_as_was said:
https://twitter.com/russellcfuller/status/855762667683950592Scrapheap_as_was said:It's all kicking off in the Fed Cup - Nastase sent off and Konta in tears.
what did he say i wonder?0 -
This is true.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Also, would non-doms like Michael Ashcroft be included in the 1% figure?rcs1000 said:
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.CarlottaVance said:Tories (or to be fair, the Coalition) tax the rich:
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/8557613563389992960 -
The failings of those around Ed Miliband are numerous. From the Edstone to the interview with Russell Brand, the disconnection between Team Miliband and the real world was one of the key factors contributing to Labour’s defeat last month. But I now understand they committed a far graver crime: taking Dr. Eoin Clarke seriously.FrancisUrquhart said:Given Labour need 411 new candidates, why doesn't the good doctor stand for Labour? He spends more time on Labour PR than most full time Labour MPs and spinners already.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/06/team-miliband-said-we-must-not-underestimate-eoin-clarke/0 -
Yep.ToryJim said:FrancisUrquhart said:
OMG...he is even more bonkers than Jezza...Floater said:He has previously suggested companies should be banned from sacking people and workers should be given powers to take over their businesses.
Mr Fisher has also backed abolishing the City of London and ending tax havens in the Channel Islands and the Cayman Islands.
The hard-Left ideas were contained in a book, The Failed Experiment: And How to Build an Economy That Works, which was published in 2014.
Mr Fisher questioned why politicians were "obsessed with economic growth"
Aren't the tax policies of the Channel and Cayman Islands decided in house and HMG has no jurisdiction over them?0 -
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.matt said:Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
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Interesting article...
Moneyball: was the book that changed baseball built on a false premise?
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/apr/21/moneyball-baseball-oakland-book-billy-beane0 -
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/855760829937053698
Professor Scully continues to tease us.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...0 -
Pong said:
Also, would non-doms like Michael Ashcroft be included in the 1% figure?rcs1000 said:
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.CarlottaVance said:Tories (or to be fair, the Coalition) tax the rich:
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/855761356338999296
Or Lakshmi Mittal, Lord Noon or Sir Ronald Cohen, since we're asking (Labour donors, by the way...)0 -
A man who has had to make more retractions for publishing false information than all leading newspapers put together...Lib Dems and their dodgy bar charts got nothing on the good Dr.CarlottaVance said:
The failings of those around Ed Miliband are numerous. From the Edstone to the interview with Russell Brand, the disconnection between Team Miliband and the real world was one of the key factors contributing to Labour’s defeat last month. But I now understand they committed a far graver crime: taking Dr. Eoin Clarke seriously.FrancisUrquhart said:Given Labour need 411 new candidates, why doesn't the good doctor stand for Labour? He spends more time on Labour PR than most full time Labour MPs and spinners already.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/06/team-miliband-said-we-must-not-underestimate-eoin-clarke/0 -
he is quoted o his blog as saying if the latest opinion poll is correct then Wales will turn Blue in June for the first time since 1918 with NO Labour MPs north or west of the valleys with Cons winning 10 seats and Plaid 1Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/855760829937053698
Professor Scully continues to tease us.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...0 -
I'm assuming that this means above UNS swings. UKIP + Con was 40% in Wales in 2015. reckon that it's going to be 40% Con, 30% Lab, 5% UKIP, 12% PC, 10% LD.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/855760829937053698
Professor Scully continues to tease us.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...0 -
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.0 -
Yeah, but that is based on the GB wide poll with UNS applied to Wales, so it could potentially be even worse.marke09 said:
he is quoted o his blog as saying if the latest opinion poll is correct then Wales will turn Blue in June for the first time since 1918 with NO Labour MPs north or west of the valleys with Cons winning 10 seats and Plaid 1Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/855760829937053698
Professor Scully continues to tease us.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...0 -
A lot of humorous election posters have been stuck up in Paris. The effect may be to increase abstention.
I wonder who's paying? Some of the posters feature Disney characters. The Disney CEO, Bob Iger, is a member of Donald Trump's Strategic and Policy Forum.
Certain parties may exert a big push today, without minding that we are supposed to be in "election silence".
Report by BFMTV.
Report in the Daily Mail, in an article that they headline with the words "'More terror attacks will bring civil war' warns Marine Le Pen".
Examples:
Yep - the message does seem to be "Don't vote", which will help the candidates whose supporters are most committed to voting. Meaning Le Pen.0 -
People.edmundintokyo said:
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.matt said:Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.0 -
After UKIP and the Tories......the party with the biggest LEAVE contingent is.......the SNP.....chortle....
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/855765816729628672
Which, as the BES observes:
Finally, there are also some indications that the SNP vote may be splitting along EU referendum lines. They only managed to retain 55% of their 2015 voters who supported Leave compared with 83% of their voters who supported Remain.
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/has-brexit-broken-british-voting/#.WPtYzFKQ2DU0 -
The most ridiculous odds at the moment, as some have already pointed out, are in Vauxhall where you can get a 57% return on Kate Hoey being reelected.0
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Labour third in Wales?Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/855760829937053698
Professor Scully continues to tease us.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...0 -
I have been pondering the possibilities for the Tories if Ukip implodes, but even allowing for that the very notion of a 10pt Tory lead - or anything like it - in Wales is astonishing. It would be nice to think such a thing is possible, but once again this seems well into 'too good to be true' territory. If Labour were to endure losses on that scale, then the Conservatives could end up holding an absolute majority of all the seats in Wales, even allowing for Labour's continued domination of its under-sized and low turnout seats in the Valleys. But I guess we'll find out more on Monday.Chameleon said:
I'm assuming that this means above UNS swings. UKIP + Con was 40% in Wales in 2015. reckon that it's going to be 40% Con, 30% Lab, 5% UKIP, 12% PC, 10% LD.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/855760829937053698
Professor Scully continues to tease us.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...0 -
Taking up your lay....?rcs1000 said:
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.Torby_Fennel said:I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7
Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4
Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1
Belfast East: Alliance 1/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7
Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11
Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6
Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15
Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7
Bristol West: Green 5/4
Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5
Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1
Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10
Sheffield Central: Green 25/1
Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)0 -
Yeah, well, life and politics are unfair.kle4 said:
I think that's a bit harsh. I'm no fan of May, and I encourage politicians to try and gain support even in less than fertile territory for their parties, but they have limited resources (well, they'll probably behave more carefully this time at least), and cold calculation would be there's not much to be gained from the PM going to places where they have no chance, and plenty of chance for very bad optics, it doesn't mean she doesn't want to talk to actual voters or represent every person (the former I'm sure no politician wants, outside of election time anyway), and it is unfair to paint not visiting a place, even a significant place, as the same as thinking wanting to represent it as bollocks, and 'talking to actual voters' does not just mean 'talking to people who don't like me' just as it does not mean 'talking only to people who like me'.Theuniondivvie said:
Fair play, an honest admission that all that 'talking to actual voters' and wanting to 'represent every person in the whole United Kingdom' is just so much Tessybollox.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Not all parties can be like the SNP and (as of 2015) be competitive in every seat they contest.
The substitute for not having the resources or guts to 'talk to actual voters' (Tessy's own phrase) is to test your policies publicly against those against whom you're standing to get these actual votes, aka televised debates.
If pols are double feart, they'll just have to suck up all the accusations of cowardice, hypocrisy and low calculation that come their way. In any case I'm sure it won't make a jot of difference to the carefully selected, prompted-to-applaud, no-questions-allowed audiences Tessy prefers.0 -
HaroldO said:
Clarke is good value for money, utter shit every time.CarlottaVance said:'Dr' Eoin doesn't understand what a 'Head of State' is - I know Nicola frequently gets ideas above her station, but I don't think she's ever claimed that.....
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855753782663274496
Loony left for all to seeAndyJS said:The most ridiculous odds at the moment, as some have already pointed out, are in Vauxhall where you can get a 57% return on Kate Hoey being reelected.
0 -
Laying Kate Hoey?IanB2 said:
Taking up your lay....?rcs1000 said:
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.Torby_Fennel said:I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7
Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4
Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1
Belfast East: Alliance 1/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7
Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11
Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6
Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15
Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7
Bristol West: Green 5/4
Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5
Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1
Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10
Sheffield Central: Green 25/1
Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)0 -
Juste Le Blanc! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYYwaFy05-UCyan said:A lot of humorous election posters have been stuck up in Paris. The effect may be to increase abstention.
...
Yep - the message does seem to be "Don't vote", which will help the candidates whose supporters are most committed to voting. Meaning Le Pen.0 -
Impossible. The Lib Dems are clawing their way out of an even deeper pit in Wales than they are in England, and Plaid Cymru generally struggle to gain traction outside of the language heartlands (they did make waves with the Rhondda and a couple of other near misses in the last Assembly election, but even so...)ToryJim said:
Labour third in Wales?Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/855760829937053698
Professor Scully continues to tease us.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...
Labour is still the governing party in Wales, not a rotted corpse as in Scotland.0 -
Aren't the tax policies of the Channel and Cayman Islands decided in house and HMG has no jurisdiction over them?ToryJim said:FrancisUrquhart said:
OMG...he is even more bonkers than Jezza...Floater said:He has previously suggested companies should be banned from sacking people and workers should be given powers to take over their businesses.
Mr Fisher has also backed abolishing the City of London and ending tax havens in the Channel Islands and the Cayman Islands.
The hard-Left ideas were contained in a book, The Failed Experiment: And How to Build an Economy That Works, which was published in 2014.
Mr Fisher questioned why politicians were "obsessed with economic growth"
In theory, yes: their loyalty is to the Crown (the state), Westminster is the Parliament of the United Kingdom, HMG is the the Government of the United Kingdom, and the Channel Islands most definitely are not in the UK.
But, but, but...
But the PM is not just the formateur of HMG and chair of the Cabinet, she's also a member of the Privy Council and can wield Orders-in-Council. Never forget that the Cabinet ultimately is just a subcommittee of the Privy Council. The armed forces are loyal to the Crown, not Parliament.
This blurring of the lines enables many things to be possible: the example I bring up is the governance of Northern Ireland: it used to have its own government, executive and PM, then it was direct ruled from London, now it has devolved government and two First Ministers. Administratively that's quite difficult to pull off, but the British state managed it.
This was why, even as a fervent Remainer, I was so disappointed when the courts ruled that May had to get Parliament approval for Article 50: it really had nothing to do with them.
So (to answer your question): theoretically they can't do it, but if they were determined enough, practically they could0 -
If the Tories are ahead in Wales it would bring seats like Cardiff West, Cardiff South, Carmarthen East, Newport West, Newport East into play.0
-
27% of income tax. They pay little VAT proportionally as they are unable to spend most of their incomes, so probably less than 5% of VAT and excise duties and council tax.Richard_Tyndall said:
I believe the stat shown yesterday on here was that the top 1% earn 11% of the income and pay 27% of the taxes. Not making any comment on whether this is good or bad, just filling in one of the gaps.rcs1000 said:
There are a number of possible explanations for that, including much more unequal income distribution.CarlottaVance said:Tories (or to be fair, the Coalition) tax the rich:
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/855761356338999296
Government income from VAT, excise duties and Council tax is more than that from income taxes.
So my guess is that the top 1% get 11% of the income and around 16% of taxes overall. They could easily afford much more tax and still live very comfortably.0 -
Robert was offering 10/1 that the LibDems wouldn't win and got several takers at those odds betting that they would. I just wanted to check the terminology as he is the one doing the laying?Roger said:
Laying Kate Hoey?IanB2 said:
Taking up your lay....?rcs1000 said:
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.Torby_Fennel said:I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7
Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4
Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1
Belfast East: Alliance 1/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7
Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11
Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6
Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15
Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7
Bristol West: Green 5/4
Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5
Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1
Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10
Sheffield Central: Green 25/1
Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)0 -
Dadge said:
Juste Le Blanc! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYYwaFy05-UCyan said:A lot of humorous election posters have been stuck up in Paris. The effect may be to increase abstention.
...
Yep - the message does seem to be "Don't vote", which will help the candidates whose supporters are most committed to voting. Meaning Le Pen. "VOTEZ BLANC", though. And the Scrooge McDuck one conveys the message "Don't trust any politician". 0 -
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.0 -
Thanks for the thoughtful replies. I suppose he strikes me as a tidal politician. He was a rising boat as the Labour tide came in but fell as the tide went out. He doesn't strike me as either ruthless or someone able to make the political weather. He was not Brown and now he's not Corbyn. He failed at the former - what's changed which means that he'll succeed at the latter?JosiasJessop said:
People.edmundintokyo said:
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.matt said:Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.
Edit: ignoring the mixed weather/water metaphors, it strikes me that can apply this analysis with a similar conclusion to Cooper.0 -
Hoey has been disowned by the local Labour party and is seriously toxic after her dalliance with Farage. She used to be seen as a maverick in the mould of Frank Field but not anymore.IanB2 said:
Robert was offering 10/1 that the LibDems wouldn't win and got several takers at those odds betting that they would. I just wanted to check the terminology as he is the one doing the laying?Roger said:
Laying Kate Hoey?IanB2 said:
Taking up your lay....?rcs1000 said:
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.Torby_Fennel said:I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7
Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4
Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1
Belfast East: Alliance 1/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7
Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11
Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6
Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15
Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7
Bristol West: Green 5/4
Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5
Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1
Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10
Sheffield Central: Green 25/1
Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)0 -
Hayes and Harlington was Tory -held 1983 - 1997.ThomasNashe said:
Perhaps so, but I suspect from that list he'll be in profit overall. The shorter odd Tory & LD seats all look good prospects. Hayes & Harlington would be hilarious! In some ways JC himself is more vulnerable given the very different demographic of his constituency, but unfortunately neither are realistic prospects no matter how disastrous the campaign is for Labour.rcs1000 said:
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.Torby_Fennel said:I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7
Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4
Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1
Belfast East: Alliance 1/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7
Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11
Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6
Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15
Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7
Bristol West: Green 5/4
Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5
Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1
Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10
Sheffield Central: Green 25/1
Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)0 -
Superb - unfortunately more than a hint of truth in that tooBlack_Rook said:0 -
May be you should ask your wife what "sanitary products" are and the role they play in public health?rcs1000 said:
Why? Using the tax system to encourage people to bathe more seems like government overreach.chestnut said:
Clothing and sanitary products are VAT-able as well, but yes- as a general rule, essential products are exempted.Sandpit said:
Disagree. Except for domestic energy and fuel, it's possible to live a basic life paying almost no VAT at all on daily spending.Recidivist said:
VAT is regressive though.FrancisUrquhart said:There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?
The abolition of VAT on fuel and sanitary products must form part of any post-Brexit budget.0 -
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/21/the-2017-general-election-some-first-thoughts-and-a-first-seat-projection/
Bridgend
Wrexham
Clwyd South
Delyn
Alyn & Deeside
Newport West
Newport East
Cardiff West
Cardiff South & Penarth would all fall to Cons0 -
Joe Twyman @JoeTwyman
New @YouGov #GE2017 voting intention data will be in the Sunday Times tomorrow with a Wales only poll to follow on Monday via @roger_scully.
0 -
To be fair he has me hooked and impatiently waiting to see.ToryJim said:
Labour third in Wales?Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/855760829937053698
Professor Scully continues to tease us.
I am assuming that a Conservative lead in Wales (and perhaps a significant one) is to be revealed on Monday...0 -
Quoting yourself might well be a sign of madness... But following on from this... I did NOT know that the UK has the WORST real wage growth since financial crisis out of OECD countries (apart from Greece).rkrkrk said:
I wouldn't say totally detached. Hopefully we will see increases in wages (and therefore reductions in tax credits) as economy performs better. But little can be done about pensions and disabilities except in the long run.HurstLlama said:
Thanks for posting that link, Mr. Rkrkrk. The interesting, maybe frightening is a better word, is that the welfare bill is now largely detached from economic performance. That is to say it doesn't matter if the economy is growing or in recession the welfare bill is only ever going to go up.rkrkrk said:
For better or worse people think of unemployment benefits when they hear welfare.Sandpit said:
Wow, so the four biggest items on the budget, accounting for 69% of government spending, are *all* underestimated by the public. Only the fifth item, debt interest at 7%, is accurately known. All the smaller items, accounting for only 24% in total, are overestimated in their significance.calum said:Interesting survey
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/09/public-attitudes-tax-distribution/
TL:DR; spending isn't coming down until the welfare bill does.
As an exercise go to http://visual.ons.gov.uk/welfare-spending and try to guess how the welfare budget is broken down. Even knowing that unemployment is overestimated, and having been warned by me, i bet you'll still over estimate it!
So either taxes continue to rise or even bigger cuts are made elsewhere. We cannot keep cutting law enforcement and defence and Health and overseas aid are ring fenced to the extent that they will also continue to climb. How high can Hammond push taxes?
Housing benefit could be brought down significantly by building more council houses IMO... I think there are also likely to be big hidden benefits from choosing council housing over paying for private rental accommodation.
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.fr/2017/04/breaking-strong-economy-narrative.html?m=10 -
Glasgow Hillhead was Tory held until the March 1982 by election.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.0 -
-
So about 10pm tonight for the Yougov?marke09 said:Joe Twyman @JoeTwyman
New @YouGov #GE2017 voting intention data will be in the Sunday Times tomorrow with a Wales only poll to follow on Monday via @roger_scully.
Or is that not right anymore?0 -
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?0 -
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/21/the-2017-general-election-some-first-thoughts-and-a-first-seat-projection/AndyJS said:If the Tories are ahead in Wales it would bring seats like Cardiff West, Cardiff South, Carmarthen East, Newport West, Newport East into play.
The suggestion, based simply on uniform swing as implied by recent GB-wide polling, is as follows:
To the Tories: Bridgend, Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Alyn & Deeside, Newport West, Newport East, Cardiff West, Cardiff South & Penarth
To Plaid: Ynys Mon
Cardiff South & Penarth is number 79 on the list of Tory target seats post-2015, requiring an 8% swing (that's so huge that I'm guessing that a Ukip to Con movement must have been factored in in this case.)
Carmarthen East & Dinefwr is a Plaid seat inside the language belt, so I reckon that's a safe hold; however, the capacity potentially exists for upsets anywhere in Labour territory where (a) the Con+Ukip vote was greater in 2015 than that of the winning candidate, or at least reasonably close to it, and (b) Plaid is not already strong.
If Ukip goes totally tits-up then Torfaen (Labour defence no. 103) may come within range of the Conservatives.0 -
Too true to be good!Floater said:
Superb - unfortunately more than a hint of truth in that tooBlack_Rook said:0 -
Worth a read on party realignment post Referendum.
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/has-brexit-broken-british-voting/#.WPtfqmnyvIV0 -
Isn't it a tax where the middle class pay the highest percentage, even if the ultra wealthy pay more in absolute terms. There is only so much even Croesus can buy.nunu said:
but hte point is VAT is not even applied to many everyday items like milk and bread. and the wealthy pay much more VAT then the poor in any case.Recidivist said:
VAT is regressive though.FrancisUrquhart said:There is no vat on milk....the woman is f##king thick as shit and they want to run the country! So we have one leading labour slander a company over being tax dodgers when they aren't & now non-existent vat on milk. They really do live in a parallel universe.
When asked the standard political question how much is a price of milk, does she reply with or without the VAT?0 -
Maybe so, but that graph isn't evidence.CarlottaVance said:Tories (or to be fair, the Coalition) tax the rich:
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/855761356338999296
It just shows what percentage of the total tax take they contribute. It doesn't say whether the share of their income they are paying is going up or down. If the rich are getting a lot richer over time they could be paying a lot more total tax but still less as a proportion of their income.0 -
I criticised Lewis's similar one, partly as I don't believe him it was satire, so though this one I am sure is humorous in intent, I shall criticise also.Black_Rook said:
Not disowned enough apparently if she is the candidate. Even if automatic reselect surely they could emergency deselect?williamglenn said:
Hoey has been disowned by the local Labour party and is seriously toxic after her dalliance with Farage. She used to be seen as a maverick in the mould of Frank Field but not anymore.IanB2 said:
Robert was offering 10/1 that the LibDems wouldn't win and got several takers at those odds betting that they would. I just wanted to check the terminology as he is the one doing the laying?Roger said:
Laying Kate Hoey?IanB2 said:
Taking up your lay....?rcs1000 said:
People betting on the LibDems in Vauxhall, where they were fourth in 2015, almost 50% behind Kate Hoey, at 15/8 are insane.Torby_Fennel said:I've dipped my little toe into the individual constituency bets on Betfair. I'm not a real gambler so these are all just £2 fun bets to add a bit of interest to things. However, as it's a political betting site some people might be interested in what's grabbed me. Some of these are very unlikely indeed, of course, but at just £2 each there's no harm in playing.
Bassetlaw: Labour 4/7
Bath: Liberal Democrat 5/4
Batley & Spen: Conservative 1/1
Belfast East: Alliance 1/1
Bermondsey & Old Southwark: Liberal Democrat 4/7
Birmingham Edgbaston: Conservative 4/11
Birmingham Northfield: Conservative 4/6
Bishop Auckland: Conservative 8/15
Brentford & Isleworth: Conservative 4/7
Bristol West: Green 5/4
Dagenham & Rainham: Conservative 6/5
Hayes & Harlington: Conservative 22/1
Hornsey & Woodgreen: Liberal Democrat 23/10
Sheffield Central: Green 25/1
Vauxhall: Liberal Democrat 15/8
I have also bet a slightly larger amount on Labour to be in the 100-149 seats range.
(People who laid the LibDems at 10-1 are also idiots.)0 -
That Saga poll rings true in my everyday experience. TM is a very popular prime minister, especially amongst the over 50s, at least in this neck of the woods. That is not to say that people are enamoured with all her policies and ideas, because they ain't, but on balance they trust her to do the right thing by the country.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I agree that her tv debate stance is at best deeply cynical and at worst cowardly.Theuniondivvie said:
Yeah, well, life and politics are unfair.kle4 said:
I think that's a bit harsh. I'm no fan of May, and I encourage politicians to try and gain support even in less than fertile territory for their parties, but they have limited resources (well, they'll probably behave more carefully this time at least), and cold calculation would be there's not much to be gained from the PM going to places where they have no chance, and plenty of chance for very bad optics, it doesn't mean she doesn't want to talk to actual voters or represent every person (the former I'm sure no politician wants, outside of election time anyway), and it is unfair to paint not visiting a place, even a significant place, as the same as thinking wanting to represent it as bollocks, and 'talking to actual voters' does not just mean 'talking to people who don't like me' just as it does not mean 'talking only to people who like me'.Theuniondivvie said:
Fair play, an honest admission that all that 'talking to actual voters' and wanting to 'represent every person in the whole United Kingdom' is just so much Tessybollox.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
Not all parties can be like the SNP and (as of 2015) be competitive in every seat they contest.
The substitute for not having the resources or guts to 'talk to actual voters' (Tessy's own phrase) is to test your policies publicly against those against whom you're standing to get these actual votes, aka televised debates.
If pols are double feart, they'll just have to suck up all the accusations of cowardice, hypocrisy and low calculation that come their way. In any case I'm sure it won't make a jot of difference to the carefully selected, prompted-to-applaud, no-questions-allowed audiences Tessy prefers.0 -
Labour 'might be able to coalesce around' David Miliband.JosiasJessop said:
People.edmundintokyo said:
Not to mention the lingering Iraq War toxicity. Centre-left technocracy may be the right positioning for Labour, but they have several basically capable centre-left technocrats, so I don't really understand what he brings to the table.matt said:Re the comment above about Milliband, D. Could people explain why he's so highly venerated. Memory says that he was an ok (but hardly stellar) technocrat but not a very good politician. What am I overlooking?
Labour need a leader who will be able to get as many people as possible in the party - from MPs to members - singing from the same hymn sheet. Few people actually have this skill: Brown and Blair mostly had it; Brown in particular built up a hierarchy of his own supporters within the party - a party-within-a-party that he could use to crush dissent.
David Miliband knows lots of people in the party, and has for years. He can work a Labour-leaning crowd, and will, to some extent, know where the bodies are buried. Labour might be able to coalesce around him.
However, the person also needs to be ruthless: the same sort of trait that allowed Kinnock to rid the party of Militant. I'm unsure Miliband has that.
Whoever is Labour's next leader needs to rid the party of Momentum, or otherwise be overtaken by it.
Then again, I'm far from sure there'll be a vacancy.
'However, the person also needs to be ruthless'
Hmm. how about Ed Miliband ;-) ?0 -
"Almost six in 10 supported the early election (58%) with 22% remaining on the fence. just 17% opposed the decision to hold an early general election."HurstLlama said:
That Saga poll rings true in my everyday experience. TM is a very popular prime minister, especially amongst the over 50s, at least in this neck of the woods. That is not to say that people are enamoured with all her policies and ideas, because they ain't, but on balance they trust her to do the right thing by the country.CarlottaVance said:
This nobody wants an election, its rigged, etc etc etc ain't getting any traction with the oldies.
It appears Brenda from Bristol is in the significant minority among her peers.0 -
Wales, like the North East, has been gradually shifting right for long time, but so many seats had huge Labour leads to begin with, that it's only now becoming noticeable.viewcode said:
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.0 -
I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on. However ... what if, for Labour, this is the 2015 General Election Part Two? What started in Scotland now happens in a couple of other regions as well?viewcode said:
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?0 -
IndeedSean_F said:
Wales, like the North East, has been gradually shifting right for long time, but so many seats had huge Labour leads to begin with, that it's only now becoming noticeable.viewcode said:
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.0 -
0
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You mean England and Walesaugustus_carp said:
I think it is still much too soon to talk about a "Re-alignment Election" - we are only a few days in to an abnormally long campaign, and there simply isn't enough evidence - or even straws in the wind - for us to base too many assumptions on. However ... what if, for Labour, this is the 2015 General Election Part Two? What started in Scotland now happens in a couple of other regions as well?viewcode said:
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?0 -
Wonder if SLAB & SLID will give the same undertaking !
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/8557330378577797120 -
If Ukip collapses entirely and their voters move more-or-less en masse to the Tories (and the polling evidence to date suggests that the bulk of 2015 Ukip voters who have defected thus far have gone over to Mrs May,) then you can make a plausible case for targetting Sedgefield as a potential Con gain.Sean_F said:
Wales, like the North East, has been gradually shifting right for long time, but so many seats had huge Labour leads to begin with, that it's only now becoming noticeable.viewcode said:
I think you may have missed the bit where I said "However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two." I wasn't arguing with you.HYUFD said:
Difference being Major and Thatcher won a lot of Tory seats in the South-West and Reagan and Bush in the Great Lakes. There has not been a Tory MP in Glasgow itself since 1974, it is pointless May campaigning thereviewcode said:
Parenthetically, campaigning in places where it is thought your opponent has a lock is the sign of confidence in victory: see also Cameron in the South-West, Trump in the Great Lakes. However I think that only kicks in in the last week or two.HYUFD said:
Theresa May could win a majority in Scotland let alone the UK without winning a single Glasgow seat so she has no reason at all to visit the cityTheuniondivvie said:
Don't worry, Tessy has vowed to hit the streets to talk to voters. I'm sure that means voters in all parts of her precious, precious Union.OUT said:
SNP looking vunerable in Dudley. What's their majority?CarlottaVance said:May's 'standing up to the separatists' goes down well in Dudley:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/855752193013465088
I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the date of her Glasgow visit. Rumours that it'll be to the GOLS in Brigton in front of a specially selected audience may be unfounded.
However, if Professor Scully is right about Wales turning blue, I'm beginning to wonder. Will this be a realigning election and, if so, whither the safe seats?
Look out for the results in places like Bishop Auckland and Sedgefield, as well as the Welsh results.
On that basis, even Durham North West (Labour majority 10K, not even in the top 100 on their list of defences) is potentially vulnerable.0
