politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Momentum’s cunning plan to change the narrative about LAB’s ch
Comments
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NURSE!malcolmg said:
Ding Dong Ding DongCarlottaVance said:
So, Strathclyde University is lying.......and the SNP are mugs for citing them:malcolmg said:
Pull the other one it plays bellsCarlottaVance said:
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.malcolmg said:
Mundell's moniker all over it so tainted crap.CarlottaVance said:
University of Strathclyde:malcolmg said:
Ha Ha Ha , independent research from diddy mundell, the only Tory in the country...............how stupid are Toriesmalcolmg said:
Yawn, those jobs will not disappear , usual gobshite from unionistsCarlottaVance said:
They're reporting independent research:malcolmg said:
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.calum said:Bizarre twitter account !
https://twitter.com/UKGovScotland/status/855057969339183105
More than half a million Scottish jobs – around one in four – depend on Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK, new research published today reveals. That is more than four times as many jobs supported by EU trade.
The figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute show:
around 530,000 jobs in Scotland (nearly one in four of all jobs) are supported by demand for Scottish goods and services from the rest of the UK;
more than 175,000 jobs in Scotland are supported by export demand from the rest of the world; and
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-market-supports-half-a-million-scottish-jobs
So, Mrs Sturgeon, what first attracted you to the market that supports 125,000 jobs at the expense of the one that supports 530,000 jobs?
https://www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20170420/Exports-and-Employment-Scotland.pdf
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
http://www.strath.ac.uk/business/economics/fraserofallanderinstitute/
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/8430795839477678080 -
That would not have got her very far. A year later with Corbyn gone Labour could have tabled its own Confidence Vote and challenged her to then call an election. What is puzzling is why Labour has gone along with an election at a time of May's choosing when there was a much more attractive option available to them.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.justin124 said:Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
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They're not favourites to win for sure, but it's the only seat where their chances are greater than zero IMO. Local election results have been much better than elsewhere for the party.IanB2 said:
Why would anyone vote UKIP there when even the monkey is backing the Tories this time?AndyJS said:As far as UKIP are concerned, I think it's probably a case of Hartlepool or nothing.
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Look like a pair of wally dugsCarlottaVance said:Meanwhile, back on the day job:
https://twitter.com/Number10gov/status/855109628891451392
Edit - nifty metal tipped slippers Mrs May is sporting....0 -
Sssssht.Pulpstar said:Speaking of free money, why on earth are the Tories 1.06 for most seats ?
Surely that should be unbackable.0 -
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.IanB2 said:I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.0 -
Labour needs to convince no such thing. Everyone knows Labour is going to lose and the Tories are going to win bigly.Black_Rook said:
Seems not unreasonable.AlastairMeeks said:Dagenham & Rainham: my take.
1) Half of the kippers will vote for the Conservatives.
2) One in eight Labour supporters will abstain.
3) One in eight Labour supporters will vote Conservative.
I think the Conservatives will take it quite comfortably.
Context: Dagenham & Rainham is number 84 on an overall Conservative target seat list, based on 2015 results, and the Tories need an 8.5% swing to capture it. It is number 57 on the Labour defence list.
Labour now has 48 days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and propped up by Scottish Nationalism, is preferable to that of Theresa May.
Labour is in desperate trouble.
On the doorstep to an ex-Labour voter: "Do you want the Tories to have a massive majority so that they can do whatever they like, e.g. , privatise the NHS. "0 -
You couldn't make this up. Threatened to be sued maybeToryJim said:0 -
Labour sound confident, they just love being Tories little helpers , keep the crumbs leftover
Adam Ramsay @AdamRamsay
Met a Labour staffer in London this evening. Said she hopes Scotland elects Tory MPs to keep the SNP out, coz Labour's stuffed w/o Scotland.
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This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.justin124 said:Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.0 -
Obama's best mate Dawn is clearly not a latte-sipping liberal.ToryJim said:0 -
Mr. Alistair, that's assuming they stand...0
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"Having met Dawn Butler MP I can see why she is one of only two black women in parliament. She is bright, intelligent and determined."Big_G_NorthWales said:
You couldn't make this up. Threatened to be sued maybeToryJim said:
Signed. Obama +++0 -
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.surbiton said:
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.justin124 said:Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.0 -
With limited self awareness......malcolmg said:
I am an independent intelligent thinking person.MTimT said:
Punk'dCarlottaVance said:
So, Strathclyde University is lying.......and the SNP are mugs for citing them:malcolmg said:
Pull the other one it plays bellsCarlottaVance said:
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.malcolmg said:
Mundell's moniker all over it so tainted crap.CarlottaVance said:
University of Strathclyde:malcolmg said:
Ha Ha Ha , independent research from diddy mundell, the only Tory in the country...............how stupid are Toriesmalcolmg said:
Yawn, those jobs will not disappear , usual gobshite from unionistsCarlottaVance said:
They're reporting independent research:malcolmg said:
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.calum said:Bizarre twitter account !
https://twitter.com/UKGovScotland/status/855057969339183105
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-market-supports-half-a-million-scottish-jobs
So, Mrs Sturgeon, what first attracted you to the market that supports 125,000 jobs at the expense of the one that supports 530,000 jobs?
https://www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20170420/Exports-and-Employment-Scotland.pdf
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
http://www.strath.ac.uk/business/economics/fraserofallanderinstitute/
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/8430795839477678080 -
We've already had more gaffes from the Labour campaign today than I was expecting in the first couple of weeks.0
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Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.0 -
I am very self aware , greatness is easy to spotCarlottaVance said:
With limited self awareness......malcolmg said:
I am an independent intelligent thinking person.MTimT said:
Punk'dCarlottaVance said:
So, Strathclyde University is lying.......and the SNP are mugs for citing them:malcolmg said:
Pull the other one it plays bellsCarlottaVance said:
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.malcolmg said:
Mundell's moniker all over it so tainted crap.CarlottaVance said:
University of Strathclyde:malcolmg said:
Ha Ha Ha , independent research from diddy mundell, the only Tory in the country...............how stupid are Toriesmalcolmg said:
Yawn, those jobs will not disappear , usual gobshite from unionistsCarlottaVance said:
They're reporting independent research:malcolmg said:
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.calum said:Bizarre twitter account !
https://twitter.com/UKGovScotland/status/855057969339183105
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-market-supports-half-a-million-scottish-jobs
So, Mrs Sturgeon, what first attracted you to the market that supports 125,000 jobs at the expense of the one that supports 530,000 jobs?
https://www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20170420/Exports-and-Employment-Scotland.pdf
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
http://www.strath.ac.uk/business/economics/fraserofallanderinstitute/
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/8430795839477678080 -
This election is heading for armageddon for labourAndyJS said:We've already had more gaffes from the Labour campaign today than I was expecting in the first couple of weeks.
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I've been looking into this as well. Bet365 have the best sign-up (but odds seem poor, although I haven't done any deep analysis!). From years of lurking on PB, Betfair seem the site for those 'in the know'...rkrkrk said:
Generally speaking betfair have the best odds i think.junius said:Which is the best betting company for a political betting newbie ? Best 'free bet' offers etc.
Offers wise there are comparison websites i think0 -
Generally Betfair is best, but often other bookies have a few more unusual markets. Ladbrokes in particular, but PaddyPower too.junius said:Which is the best betting company for a political betting newbie ? Best 'free bet' offers etc.
It is a bit tricky running multiple accounts, but today I had a windfall win. I had a payout on a 2017 election that I had forgotten about.0 -
Well that was a busy evening - not often that betting distracts me from bookselling!!
Should be packing for this weekend's Oxford Book Fair!0 -
All the better for applying to the soft, low hanging bits of Mr Tajani, if necessary.CarlottaVance said:Meanwhile, back on the day job:
https://twitter.com/Number10gov/status/855109628891451392
Edit - nifty metal tipped slippers Mrs May is sporting....0 -
This is one seat where I will back Labour.rcs1000 said:
According to Hanretty, it was something like 75+% Remain, so that presumably is boosting the LibDem chance.rkrkrk said:Labour at 2.1 in bermondsey and Southwark?
Simon Hughes has had his day perhaps? London is the one place you'd expect Corbyn vote to hold up?0 -
OGH and I are shareholders in Genius Sports Group Ltd, which owns bestbetting.comrkrkrk said:
Generally speaking betfair have the best odds i think.junius said:Which is the best betting company for a political betting newbie ? Best 'free bet' offers etc.
Offers wise there are comparison websites i think
So you should use that to check on offers and compare odds.0 -
Not sure why Betfair Sportsbook are putting so many safe Tory seats on their constituency betting list, and not including places like Derby South, Bury South, Bristol East, etc. Does anyone really want to bet on Aldershot or Brentwood & Ongar?0
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Ditto.. Jonathan, it cannot be worse than canvassing HorshamMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, best of luck to your son, and your good self.
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Is that the only onesurbiton said:
This is one seat where I will back Labour.rcs1000 said:
According to Hanretty, it was something like 75+% Remain, so that presumably is boosting the LibDem chance.rkrkrk said:Labour at 2.1 in bermondsey and Southwark?
Simon Hughes has had his day perhaps? London is the one place you'd expect Corbyn vote to hold up?0 -
My case rests.malcolmg said:
I am very self aware , greatness is easy to spotCarlottaVance said:
With limited self awareness......malcolmg said:
I am an independent intelligent thinking person.MTimT said:
Punk'dCarlottaVance said:
So, Strathclyde University is lying.......and the SNP are mugs for citing them:malcolmg said:
Pull the other one it plays bellsCarlottaVance said:
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.malcolmg said:
Mundell's moniker all over it so tainted crap.CarlottaVance said:
University of Strathclyde:malcolmg said:
Ha Ha Ha , independent research from diddy mundell, the only Tory in the country...............how stupid are Toriesmalcolmg said:
Yawn, those jobs will not disappear , usual gobshite from unionistsCarlottaVance said:
They're reporting independent research:malcolmg said:
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.calum said:Bizarre twitter account !
https://twitter.com/UKGovScotland/status/855057969339183105
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-market-supports-half-a-million-scottish-jobs
So, Mrs Sturgeon, what first attracted you to the market that supports 125,000 jobs at the expense of the one that supports 530,000 jobs?
https://www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20170420/Exports-and-Employment-Scotland.pdf
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
http://www.strath.ac.uk/business/economics/fraserofallanderinstitute/
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/8430795839477678080 -
Looking to catch Corbynistas in the shires?AndyJS said:Not sure why Betfair Sportsbook are putting so many safe Tory seats on their constituency betting list, and not including places like Derby South, Bury South, Bristol East, etc. Does anyone really want to bet on Aldershot or Brentwood & Ongar?
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It has a certain fascinating, although obviously-flawed, logic.malcolmg said:Labour sound confident, they just love being Tories little helpers , keep the crumbs leftover
Adam Ramsay @AdamRamsay
Met a Labour staffer in London this evening. Said she hopes Scotland elects Tory MPs to keep the SNP out, coz Labour's stuffed w/o Scotland.
I hope someone is filing all these quotes for publication in bound form. Stocking-stuffer material ...0 -
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority. Corbyn is a fool.kle4 said:
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.surbiton said:
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.justin124 said:Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.0 -
Why didn't Conservatives win the Stoke on Trent Central by election?0
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I think they could have too, and dared May to go the no confidence route - that the voted for it, nullifies many of the criticism however, and it was still lawful. Less about the spirit of the law, admittedly.surbiton said:
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority.kle4 said:
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.surbiton said:
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.justin124 said:Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.0 -
Mr. T, Conservatives won't get that high.
Labour could conceivably get that low. If they did, the Lib Dems would do quite well in share of the vote (which is irrelevant).0 -
GE2015: Con+Ukip+DUP = absolute majority of all votes cast; Con+Ukip = 55% of all votes cast in England. And that was before the whole Corbyn thing got started.AndyJS said:
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.MikeL said:Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
If Ukip collapses *AND* May can collect the bulk of their votes then Labour have completely had it.0 -
LDs will get 15%, minimum.SeanT said:
That occurred to me today, tooAndyJS said:
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.MikeL said:Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
A result of
Con: 50
Lab: 23
Lib: 11
UKIP: 5
Green: 5
when Baxtered, produces
Tories: 429 seats
Labour: 124
Others nowhere
And a majority of 218
But I suspect the calculus stops working with such extreme results, the same way thermometers stop working at 400C or whatever0 -
Yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is that the only onesurbiton said:
This is one seat where I will back Labour.rcs1000 said:
According to Hanretty, it was something like 75+% Remain, so that presumably is boosting the LibDem chance.rkrkrk said:Labour at 2.1 in bermondsey and Southwark?
Simon Hughes has had his day perhaps? London is the one place you'd expect Corbyn vote to hold up?0 -
She sounds as thick as pigshit!SandyRentool said:
Obama's best mate Dawn is clearly not a latte-sipping liberal.ToryJim said:0 -
What kind of idiot would back a 2017 election?foxinsoxuk said:
Generally Betfair is best, but often other bookies have a few more unusual markets. Ladbrokes in particular, but PaddyPower too.junius said:Which is the best betting company for a political betting newbie ? Best 'free bet' offers etc.
It is a bit tricky running multiple accounts, but today I had a windfall win. I had a payout on a 2017 election that I had forgotten about.0 -
We don't even know how many UKIP candidates will stand. They've struggled to find people for the local elections.Black_Rook said:
GE2015: Con+Ukip+DUP = absolute majority of all votes cast; Con+Ukip = 55% of all vpotes cast in England. And that was before the whole Corbyn thing got started.AndyJS said:
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.MikeL said:Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
If Ukip collapses *AND* May can collect the bulk of their votes then Labour have completely had it.0 -
The last London YouGov had an outer and inner London split and most of the Labour collapse has been in inner London. Dagenham might be OK
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5vzlbpfrb4/QueenMaryResults_London_March2017_2W.pdf0 -
Based on today, do the Tories require a strategy beyond "sit back, let Labour speak, and occasionally put the PM on the telly, away from the press".0
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Dawn butler living down to her reputation...slandering a company when you are already seen as anti-business.0
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1/14 for the Tories to hold Aldershot. Isn't that free money? Trying to work out the catch. It's been Conservative since it was created in 1918.0
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Lib Dems 10-29 being backable for decent profit (and you can add 10 either side and still make money) still seems like the non-palpable bet of the election so far.0
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And Labour 20% maximum.surbiton said:
LDs will get 15%, minimum.SeanT said:
That occurred to me today, tooAndyJS said:
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.MikeL said:Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
A result of
Con: 50
Lab: 23
Lib: 11
UKIP: 5
Green: 5
when Baxtered, produces
Tories: 429 seats
Labour: 124
Others nowhere
And a majority of 218
But I suspect the calculus stops working with such extreme results, the same way thermometers stop working at 400C or whatever0 -
The BAME population of Dagenham has never been so high, and the MP is the brains behind Blue LabourArtist said:The last London YouGov had an outer and inner London split and most of the Labour collapse has been in inner London. Dagenham might be OK
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5vzlbpfrb4/QueenMaryResults_London_March2017_2W.pdf0 -
Remember dawn butler is so thick so managed to spend a day campaigning in the wrong constituency...0
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Labour will get 25%.williamglenn said:
And Labour 20% maximum.surbiton said:
LDs will get 15%, minimum.SeanT said:
That occurred to me today, tooAndyJS said:
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.MikeL said:Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
A result of
Con: 50
Lab: 23
Lib: 11
UKIP: 5
Green: 5
when Baxtered, produces
Tories: 429 seats
Labour: 124
Others nowhere
And a majority of 218
But I suspect the calculus stops working with such extreme results, the same way thermometers stop working at 400C or whatever0 -
And there's £80k waiting for it! Time to empty the savings account?Pulpstar said:Speaking of free money, why on earth are the Tories 1.06 for most seats ?
Surely that should be unbackable.
Also PM after the election: Theresa May at 1.14 and Con Majority at 1.17, over a grand available on each.0 -
0
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Waltzing Ed not standing anywhere, official.....0
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You are a bit negative and I agree Lib Dems around 15% seems reasonablesurbiton said:
Yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is that the only onesurbiton said:
This is one seat where I will back Labour.rcs1000 said:
According to Hanretty, it was something like 75+% Remain, so that presumably is boosting the LibDem chance.rkrkrk said:Labour at 2.1 in bermondsey and Southwark?
Simon Hughes has had his day perhaps? London is the one place you'd expect Corbyn vote to hold up?0 -
if Peter from Putney is about.. wrt my comment yesterday, try listening to Radio 5 live in the morning, and see how long it is before you cannot bear it any more.0
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Polls already say no, one day in.surbiton said:
Labour will get 25%.williamglenn said:
And Labour 20% maximum.surbiton said:
LDs will get 15%, minimum.SeanT said:
That occurred to me today, tooAndyJS said:
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.MikeL said:Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
A result of
Con: 50
Lab: 23
Lib: 11
UKIP: 5
Green: 5
when Baxtered, produces
Tories: 429 seats
Labour: 124
Others nowhere
And a majority of 218
But I suspect the calculus stops working with such extreme results, the same way thermometers stop working at 400C or whatever0 -
There's no logic to it at all. If Labour can't claw its way back in Scotland - and right now, Scottish Labour looks like it's already halfway in the dustbin of history - then there is no conceivable way in which Scotland could ever be an asset to the party again.MTimT said:
It has a certain fascinating, although obviously-flawed, logic.malcolmg said:Labour sound confident, they just love being Tories little helpers , keep the crumbs leftover
Adam Ramsay @AdamRamsay
Met a Labour staffer in London this evening. Said she hopes Scotland elects Tory MPs to keep the SNP out, coz Labour's stuffed w/o Scotland.
I hope someone is filing all these quotes for publication in bound form. Stocking-stuffer material ...
If it remains completely dominated by the SNP, then the Lab/Nat pact threat can be deployed against Labour in every future election it contests, up until the point at which Labour is so weak that any realistic threat of it becoming a party of Government is removed.
If, on the other hand, the Tories make any kind of a Westminster comeback in Scotland, then their Commons majority is bolstered by x-number of seats *AND* the Lab/Nat pact can still be weaponised regardless.
The best result in Scotland for Labour in England would be a vote for independence.0 -
Their vote was pretty inefficient in 2015 and I think a lot of the areas where they'll get truly hammered are where they are notionally safer on paper.surbiton said:
Labour will get 25%.williamglenn said:
And Labour 20% maximum.surbiton said:
LDs will get 15%, minimum.SeanT said:
That occurred to me today, tooAndyJS said:
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.MikeL said:Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
A result of
Con: 50
Lab: 23
Lib: 11
UKIP: 5
Green: 5
when Baxtered, produces
Tories: 429 seats
Labour: 124
Others nowhere
And a majority of 218
But I suspect the calculus stops working with such extreme results, the same way thermometers stop working at 400C or whatever0 -
Mr. 195, May seems to have perfected the art of masterly inactivity. Her opponents, from the leadership contest to today, seem intent on defeating themselves.
Mr. T, that sort of result could happen. Labour would be too weak to win, too strong to die.
Mr. Alistair, constant second guessing is my usual F1 modus operandi (weirdly excepting the first race of this season, when I had to restrain myself and only offer three tips).0 -
Sean, there is now a trend for anti-politicians, like Trump.SeanT said:
It is almost as if he WANTS to destroy Labour. I'm perfectly serious. Does he harbour some inner hatred of his own party, all the years he voted against them, Tony Blair, the Iraq war, etc?surbiton said:
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority. Corbyn is a fool.kle4 said:
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.surbiton said:
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.justin124 said:Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
The bollocks over a 2nd referendum this morning was classic. It's the one way he could have transformed the electoral narrative. The only possible way. Just leave open the tiny possibilty of a second vote, or a parliamentary veto on "the deal", and suddenly millions of Remoaners might have been tempted his way.
So what does he do? Raises the possibility - but then completely rules it out four hours later.
These aren't the actions of an imbecile. They are the actions of someone actively trying to sabotage Labour's chances, or so it seems to me.
Corbyn is simply NOT A POLITICIAN meaning he cannot think on his feet. He is not particularly intelligent.
All his life, he has spoken to small audiences who accepted every word he said. When he became the accidental leader , he blinked at the headlights.0 -
0
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In accordance with international convention as regards foreign interference in a nation's election process, Tajani should keep his big mouth out of our affairs.williamglenn said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/european-parliament-will-welcome-britain-back-if-voters-veto-brexit
European parliament president Antonio Tajani said EU departure process could easily be reversed if there is change of UK government0 -
Despite holding one of the safest Labour seats in the country.dr_spyn said:Michael Dugher stands down.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/8551220271450316810 -
I don't think being prepared would have made much difference. Nonetheless, there are still MPs who have a local reputation built up over many years. They will be difficult to dislodge.ToryJim said:The screenshot in this tweet is amusing
https://twitter.com/isabelhardman/status/8551185649064632320 -
I think we need to wait and see how the polls pan out.Chameleon said:
Polls already say no, one day in.surbiton said:
Labour will get 25%.williamglenn said:
And Labour 20% maximum.surbiton said:
LDs will get 15%, minimum.SeanT said:
That occurred to me today, tooAndyJS said:
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.MikeL said:Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
A result of
Con: 50
Lab: 23
Lib: 11
UKIP: 5
Green: 5
when Baxtered, produces
Tories: 429 seats
Labour: 124
Others nowhere
And a majority of 218
But I suspect the calculus stops working with such extreme results, the same way thermometers stop working at 400C or whatever
On the one hand...
* polls have a tendency to overestimate Labour support
* polling 2 months out from the GE has consistently overestimated Labour's actual vote on each of the last six occasions
On the other hand...
* Labour has a lot of residual support.
I find it hard to believe that Labour will slip much below 25%, but then again I dislike Labour strongly and am a natural pessimist.0 -
Either they are, actually, fools, or we all are for not seeing the brilliance. Scary thought.SeanT said:
I know he's dim, but he is surrounded by quite smart people. e.g. Seamus Milne and McDonnell are sinister but they're not cretins. So how are they fucking this up so momentously?surbiton said:
Sean, there is now a trend of anti-politician, like Trump.SeanT said:
It issurbiton said:
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority. Corbyn is a fool.kle4 said:
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.surbiton said:
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.justin124 said:Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
So what does he do? Raises the possibility - but then completely rules it out four hours later.
These aren't the actions of an imbecile. They are the actions of someone actively trying to sabotage Labour's chances, or so it seems to me.
Corbyn is simply NOT A POLITICIAN meaning he cannot think on his feet. He is not particularly intelligent.
All his life, he has spoken to small audiences who accepted every word he said. When he became the accidental leader , he blinked at the headlights.
It's odd. Genuinely odd.0 -
I deeply am regretting my strong-Hilary position i took. I do not have the depth of betting funds to invest in these rock solid investments.Sandpit said:
And there's £80k waiting for it! Time to empty the savings account?Pulpstar said:Speaking of free money, why on earth are the Tories 1.06 for most seats ?
Surely that should be unbackable.
Also PM after the election: Theresa May at 1.14 and Con Majority at 1.17, over a grand available on each.0 -
The less that is said about Stein the better.Alistair said:
I deeply am regretting my strong-Hilary position i took. I do not have the depth of betting funds to invest in these rock solid investments.Sandpit said:
And there's £80k waiting for it! Time to empty the savings account?Pulpstar said:Speaking of free money, why on earth are the Tories 1.06 for most seats ?
Surely that should be unbackable.
Also PM after the election: Theresa May at 1.14 and Con Majority at 1.17, over a grand available on each.
0 -
Time to update the numpties guide !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11533602/Guide-to-tactical-voting-against-the-SNP-published.html0 -
No need for concern - Hilary will be safe in Leeds Central.Alistair said:
I deeply am regretting my strong-Hilary position i took. I do not have the depth of betting funds to invest in these rock solid investments.Sandpit said:
And there's £80k waiting for it! Time to empty the savings account?Pulpstar said:Speaking of free money, why on earth are the Tories 1.06 for most seats ?
Surely that should be unbackable.
Also PM after the election: Theresa May at 1.14 and Con Majority at 1.17, over a grand available on each.0 -
When the polls turn against them (no, I don't think this has happened yet), then we'll see what they're made of and it won't be pretty.kle4 said:
Either they are, actually, fools, or we all are for not seeing the brilliance. Scary thought.SeanT said:
I know he's dim, but he is surrounded by quite smart people. e.g. Seamus Milne and McDonnell are sinister but they're not cretins. So how are they fucking this up so momentously?surbiton said:
Sean, there is now a trend of anti-politician, like Trump.SeanT said:
It issurbiton said:
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority. Corbyn is a fool.kle4 said:
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.surbiton said:
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?Philip_Thompson said:
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.justin124 said:Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
So what does he do? Raises the possibility - but then completely rules it out four hours later.
These aren't the actions of an imbecile. They are the actions of someone actively trying to sabotage Labour's chances, or so it seems to me.
Corbyn is simply NOT A POLITICIAN meaning he cannot think on his feet. He is not particularly intelligent.
All his life, he has spoken to small audiences who accepted every word he said. When he became the accidental leader , he blinked at the headlights.
It's odd. Genuinely odd.0 -
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.Black_Rook said:
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.IanB2 said:I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
0 -
New Statesman:
Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue?
The Conservatives have a chance to capture both the Leave Labour and the Ukip vote.
Theresa May's bold pitch for a Brexit mandate will likely win significant support in Wales. Almost the entire Welsh political establishment supported Remain here last year. But the Welsh people voted Leave, and the polling evidence suggests that they have not changed their mind. A Brexit-focused campaign could be particularly problematic for Labour in its most iconic Welsh bastions: all of the south Wales valleys voted Leave, many by substantial margins.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/could-2017-general-election-turn-wales-blue0 -
Naughty Betfair seems to have deleted my Wokingham bet.0
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So far according to Politics Home that isdr_spyn said:Michael Dugher stands down.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/855122027145031681
12 Labour
4 Conservatives
1 Lib Dem
1 Independent
not standing again.
Edit corrected as the site did not include Dugher0 -
Mr. T, worth recalling even badly run campaigns can fluke their way to triumph.
The First Crusade springs to mind.0 -
0.07% between me and decent profit.RobD said:
The less that is said about Stein the better.Alistair said:
I deeply am regretting my strong-Hilary position i took. I do not have the depth of betting funds to invest in these rock solid investments.Sandpit said:
And there's £80k waiting for it! Time to empty the savings account?Pulpstar said:Speaking of free money, why on earth are the Tories 1.06 for most seats ?
Surely that should be unbackable.
Also PM after the election: Theresa May at 1.14 and Con Majority at 1.17, over a grand available on each.
Should have covered 1 to 2 % stronger than i did.0 -
The combined Ukip and Tory vote in Dagenham is 5,500 greater than the Labour vote, with insignificant support for the also-rans. It's not at all safe, regardless of the % of non-white voters.isam said:
The BAME population of Dagenham has never been so high, and the MP is the brains behind Blue LabourArtist said:The last London YouGov had an outer and inner London split and most of the Labour collapse has been in inner London. Dagenham might be OK
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5vzlbpfrb4/QueenMaryResults_London_March2017_2W.pdf0 -
Mr Dancer I don't think Corbyn is going to fluke his way to Downing St. If he does Chris Mullins could become a much richer man.0
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Might bet on this election! Hopefully I've learnt enough in the 3-4 years I've been reading this site!0
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I am hoping for a 58 - 1 win for the SNP. The one will be Orkney and Shetland.0
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Martin Kettle:
A Macron victory would be much the best outcome among the available choices, not just for France but for the EU. And that means, though Theresa May will be loth to admit it, a Macron win would ultimately be good for Britain too. Negotiating with Macron over the next two years will not be easy, because he understandably shares the same priority as Germany and most of the EU27 that the union must be defended and made stronger. On every other count, though, he would be by far the least worst of the options.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/20/election-britain-france-emmanuel-macron-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw
Which one Candidate has May met, Martin?0 -
Mr. T/Mr. Jim, I agree.
It's not impossible, but I suspect the First Crusade was him becoming leader. The current situation is more Fourth Crusade.0 -
0
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If I find the time i will be breaking out the Simple Moronic Analysis Prediction for Scotland (SMAPS) system again.
It is the startlingly accurate, "what if all Indy voters vote for the SNP" approach to Scottish elections. This time I'll add differential turnout variables to it.0
