Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority. Corbyn is a fool.
It is
So what does he do? Raises the possibility - but then completely rules it out four hours later.
These aren't the actions of an imbecile. They are the actions of someone actively trying to sabotage Labour's chances, or so it seems to me.
Sean, there is now a trend of anti-politician, like Trump.
Corbyn is simply NOT A POLITICIAN meaning he cannot think on his feet. He is not particularly intelligent.
All his life, he has spoken to small audiences who accepted every word he said. When he became the accidental leader , he blinked at the headlights.
I know he's dim, but he is surrounded by quite smart people. e.g. Seamus Milne and McDonnell are sinister but they're not cretins. So how are they fucking this up so momentously?
It's odd. Genuinely odd.
There was another episode a few months back when his office gave the media a hint of what he was going to say. And, next what does the fool do: say exactly the opposite. Probably, it's not very easy for Seamus either.
Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue? The Conservatives have a chance to capture both the Leave Labour and the Ukip vote.
Theresa May's bold pitch for a Brexit mandate will likely win significant support in Wales. Almost the entire Welsh political establishment supported Remain here last year. But the Welsh people voted Leave, and the polling evidence suggests that they have not changed their mind. A Brexit-focused campaign could be particularly problematic for Labour in its most iconic Welsh bastions: all of the south Wales valleys voted Leave, many by substantial margins.
I don't think the Valleys seats will ever go blue. They might have gone purple.
Probably most of the Valleys Labour MPs will hang on this time .,.. their percentage vote reduced yet again. They are waiting for Plaid to finally do what the SNP have already done to SLAB.
The Tories will take the 4 Welsh NE marginals & Bridgend.
But, then its the Newport & Cardiff seats that will come in to play rather than the Valleys seats.
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
Yes I do think Labour would be less humiliated in the election.
If Labour turned down the opportunity [however unlikely] of removing the Tories at the ballot box who would be left to support them? So you'd have Corbyn follow up backing Tories over Brexit [this has already happened] with being responsible for keeping May in number 10 rather than go to the polls to replace her?
Lib Dems would have made absolute hay at being the "only opposition" to the Tories and would have become the second largest party within a month.
An election now will be a bad beat for Labour, but like 1997 was a bad beat for the Tories they would eventually recover. Chickening out of an election altogether could be an existential catastrophe that could see Labour fail altogeher. Far worse.
If I find the time i will be breaking out the Simple Moronic Analysis Prediction for Scotland (SMAPS) system again.
It is the startlingly accurate, "what if all Indy voters vote for the SNP" approach to Scottish elections. This time I'll add differential turnout variables to it.
Could do one for England and Wales.
Assume all Brexiteers vote for May, and all remainers Farron
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
Could we be heading for the funniest election ever? I've just seen a labour spokesman threatening John Snow for asking a question. "I'm not going to answer the questions YOU want me to answer Mr Snow"
I've just seen Marine Le Pen on TV without her Hitler moustache. I hardly recognised her.
If I find the time i will be breaking out the Simple Moronic Analysis Prediction for Scotland (SMAPS) system again.
It is the startlingly accurate, "what if all Indy voters vote for the SNP" approach to Scottish elections. This time I'll add differential turnout variables to it.
Could do one for England and Wales.
Assume all Brexiteers vote for May, and all remainers Farron
With these preposterously high Tory scores, I wonder if as it becomes more and more 'normal' to vote (or consider voting) Tory in some areas that are not used to it, there will be a moment where even in places previously dead safe people will shift dramatically in a back the winner kind of scenario, and it jumps even further.
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
They didn't in Stoke though?
General elections always work a bit differently, I was staggered how well the Tories did in Eastleigh for instance after getting creamed there in the BE.
Perhaps that doesn't apply this time ? We'll see I guess.
Analysis of Sputnik France's Presidential Election coverage:
Sputnik France’s coverage has a number of political biases. It is broadly critical of Macron, while being significantly less critical of Le Pen. Its coverage of Fillon has been more nuanced, but has tended to favor him, especially in its reports on his election chances.
This stance fits the three candidates’ positions on Russia. Fillon and Le Pen are both seen as pro-Kremlin; Le Pen even visited Moscow in late March. Macron is far more pro-EU, pro-Atlanticist, and Russia-skeptic. Thus for the Kremlin, a victory for either Fillon or Le Pen would be better than a Macron win.
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
Yes I do think Labour would be less humiliated in the election.
If Labour turned down the opportunity [however unlikely] of removing the Tories at the ballot box who would be left to support them? So you'd have Corbyn follow up backing Tories over Brexit [this has already happened] with being responsible for keeping May in number 10 rather than go to the polls to replace her?
Lib Dems would have made absolute hay at being the "only opposition" to the Tories and would have become the second largest party within a month.
An election now will be a bad beat for Labour, but like 1997 was a bad beat for the Tories they would eventually recover. Chickening out of an election altogether could be an existential catastrophe that could see Labour fail altogeher. Far worse.
Yes - but if Corbyn were to be dumped next year the new leadership could table its own No Confidence Vote.
Yvette now fav on BF to be next Lab leader. Presumably Ed announcing not running has made punters think there has been a discuss over the kitchen table.
Could we be heading for the funniest election ever? I've just seen a labour spokesman threatening John Snow for asking a question. "I'm not going to answer the questions YOU want me to answer Mr Snow"
A pretty funny line indeed. I know some politicians overdo the aggressive response act thesedays (overcompensating for the trend of aggressive interviewers), but that just sounds downright dumb - some politicians, and it isn't a solely Labour thing, really do think it is out of order for people to ask them questions rather than just receive their words without complaint.
Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue? The Conservatives have a chance to capture both the Leave Labour and the Ukip vote.
Theresa May's bold pitch for a Brexit mandate will likely win significant support in Wales. Almost the entire Welsh political establishment supported Remain here last year. But the Welsh people voted Leave, and the polling evidence suggests that they have not changed their mind. A Brexit-focused campaign could be particularly problematic for Labour in its most iconic Welsh bastions: all of the south Wales valleys voted Leave, many by substantial margins.
I don't think the Valleys seats will ever go blue. They might have gone purple.
Probably most of the Valleys Labour MPs will hang on this time .,.. their percentage vote reduced yet again. They are waiting for Plaid to finally do what the SNP have already done to SLAB.
The Tories will take the 4 Welsh NE marginals & Bridgend.
But, then its the Newport & Cardiff seats that will come in to play rather than the Valleys seats.
If the Tories win by 24%, they'll probably win a majority of Welsh seats, but none of the Valley seats. As you say it's North Wales, Bridgend, then Newport, Cardiff, Ynys Mon and Swansea West, before the Valleys come into play.
With these preposterously high Tory scores, I wonder if as it becomes more and more 'normal' to vote (or consider voting) Tory in some areas that are not used to it, there will be a moment where even in places previously dead safe people will shift dramatically in a back the winner kind of scenario, and it jumps even further.
Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue? The Conservatives have a chance to capture both the Leave Labour and the Ukip vote.
Theresa May's bold pitch for a Brexit mandate will likely win significant support in Wales. Almost the entire Welsh political establishment supported Remain here last year. But the Welsh people voted Leave, and the polling evidence suggests that they have not changed their mind. A Brexit-focused campaign could be particularly problematic for Labour in its most iconic Welsh bastions: all of the south Wales valleys voted Leave, many by substantial margins.
I don't think the Valleys seats will ever go blue. They might have gone purple.
Probably most of the Valleys Labour MPs will hang on this time .,.. their percentage vote reduced yet again. They are waiting for Plaid to finally do what the SNP have already done to SLAB.
The Tories will take the 4 Welsh NE marginals & Bridgend.
But, then its the Newport & Cardiff seats that will come in to play rather than the Valleys seats.
Thanks - Bryant losing would have been a 'Portillo moment' but possibly a pleasure deferred.....
With these preposterously high Tory scores, I wonder if as it becomes more and more 'normal' to vote (or consider voting) Tory in some areas that are not used to it, there will be a moment where even in places previously dead safe people will shift dramatically in a back the winner kind of scenario, and it jumps even further.
Sounds like you’re retreating from your earlier predictions.
I know he's dim, but he is surrounded by quite smart people. e.g. Seamus Milne and McDonnell are sinister but they're not cretins. So how are they fucking this up so momentously?
It's odd. Genuinely odd.
Bearing in mind Corbyn voted more often against his own party than David Cameron did, there is a consistency in his madness, even if no method. It does raise the question about the motives of some of his supporters. McDonnell seems to view Corbyn as someone he can manipulate and through him gain a power he would never see on his own account. Milne I don't know.
With these preposterously high Tory scores, I wonder if as it becomes more and more 'normal' to vote (or consider voting) Tory in some areas that are not used to it, there will be a moment where even in places previously dead safe people will shift dramatically in a back the winner kind of scenario, and it jumps even further.
Sounds like you’re retreating from your earlier predictions.
Not yet. It's a long campaign, and I fully expect the Tory leads to come in a bit, but if it goes the other way, well, I may have to reassess.
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
They didn't in Stoke though?
That's true, though it was only a by election.
Look at Reckless for a recent precedent for differing outcomes between a by election and a general election.
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't agree with Rod Crosby.
Contrary to popular belief the Prime Minister does not have to resign after losing a confidence vote. James Callaghan was the last PM to lose a confidence vote. He did not resign immediately. That would have left the country without a government. He asked the Queen to dissolve parliament and remained as PM until the day after the general election, several weeks after losing the confidence vote.
The FPTA was passed in a time of coalition government. It is reasonable to assume that it envisaged a period of negotiation between the parties following a no confidence vote. During this time the original Prime Minister would remain in place (and may be one of those attempting to form a coalition) and would only go to the Queen to resign when a coalition was formed and it was clear who could command the confidence of the House of Commons.
So, let us imagine the opposition parties had not voted for an election and Theresa May then got her party to pass a vote of no confidence. The Queen always appoints as PM the person most likely to be able to command the confidence of the House. If Theresa May resigned the Queen would have asked her who could command the confidence of the House. Would Theresa May have named Corbyn? I very much doubt it. Could Corbyn command the confidence of the House? Clearly not. So no, I don't think Corbyn would have become PM. I believe Theresa May would have remained as PM unless someone else emerged who could command the confidence of the House (unlikely) and would only have resigned if she lost the subsequent election.
European parliament president Antonio Tajani said EU departure process could easily be reversed if there is change of UK government
In accordance with international convention as regards foreign interference in a nation's election process, Tajani should keep his big mouth out of our affairs.
I know he's dim, but he is surrounded by quite smart people. e.g. Seamus Milne and McDonnell are sinister but they're not cretins. So how are they fucking this up so momentously?
It's odd. Genuinely odd.
Bearing in mind Corbyn voted more often against his own party than David Cameron did, there is a consistency in his madness, even if no method. It does raise the question about the motives of some of his supporters. McDonnell seems to view Corbyn as someone he can manipulate and through him gain a power he would never see on his own account. Milne I don't know.
Well, Milne finally giving in and letting go of his 'secondment' from the Guardian was a spectacularly badly timed career move surely, as I expect neither Yvette or Lisa will want him.
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
They didn't in Stoke though?
That's true, though it was only a by election.
Look at Reckless for a recent precedent for differing outcomes between a by election and a general election.
True
Blimey, if Dagenham goes Tory that really will be something extraordinary. Strange times!
Usually you would expect stratospheric Tory ratings to depress their vote as people treat it as a foregone conclusion and/or recoil from giving them too large a majority. However this election clearly is unusual because they have a powerful single argument that a large majority is necessary to deliver Brexit. And it seems plausible that this could make the usual norms moot. As we saw in Scotland last time, FPTP can "break down" when there is one single issue that cuts across social groups and classes and potentially renders past voting patterns moot. I think it is likely that most former Conservative voters will stick to the party regardless of their position on Brexit, but Leaver from other parties will switch in droves. Labour's hope in this election must be that their safest seats will endure because their usual voters will stay at home rather than switch. But if they switch...
BTW, a minor point - but the referendum obviously voted in a significant upswing in registered voters (from previous non/unregistered voters). These people will presumably still be on the list whereas in a few years they might have dropped off.
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
They didn't in Stoke though?
Article 50 makes a difference, but I think I get your point. There is residual dislike of the babyeaters, enough to see a fair number of Labour MPs survive. I suspect that will mostly be by fighting as "independent" Labour.
Why is Le Pen favourite to win the 1st round of French election on Betfair? Am I reading it wrong?
Supporters more certain to vote, I imagine, and had long time been in the lead.
Despite the polls showing Macron in the lead? Maybe this could be my first political bet!
Probably will work out better than my first political bet - Ken Livingstone to win the 2012 mayoral election. Made on the night too, I was such a fool.
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
They didn't in Stoke though?
That's true, though it was only a by election.
Look at Reckless for a recent precedent for differing outcomes between a by election and a general election.
I think Darlington in 1983 is perhaps more pertinent given the similar context in that a very unpopular Labour leader is up against a government that is high in the opinion polls. A chap called Michael Fallon no less lost the by-election only to be elected MP for Darlington a short time later! He moved on after 1992 and the reversion of the seat back to Labour.
I've got on at 12 on Betfair for Lib Dems getting fewer than 10 seats. I think there's a high chance of FPTP screwing them over.
I think that's entirely possible, as there are a lot of Tory/LibDem marginals, and the Tories are up more than the LibDems. The correct odds are probably between 6-1 and 8-1.
Why is Le Pen favourite to win the 1st round of French election on Betfair? Am I reading it wrong?
Supporters more certain to vote, I imagine, and had long time been in the lead.
Despite the polls showing Macron in the lead? Maybe this could be my first political bet!
Probably will work out better than my first political bet - Ken Livingstone to win the 2012 mayoral election. Made on the night too, I was such a fool.
Politicalbetting.com was born on the back of an ultimately ridiculous looking London Mayoral bet...
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
They didn't in Stoke though?
That's true, though it was only a by election.
Look at Reckless for a recent precedent for differing outcomes between a by election and a general election.
True
Blimey, if Dagenham goes Tory that really will be something extraordinary. Strange times!
In Stoke, I don't think right wing voters knew if it was better to back the Tories or UKIP. Now, they're converging on the Tories (Yougov has 42% of UKIP voters from 2015 going Conservative, 5% of the voters). Dagenham isn't that different from Thurrock or Castle Point.
I've got on at 12 on Betfair for Lib Dems getting fewer than 10 seats. I think there's a high chance of FPTP screwing them over.
I think that's entirely possible, as there are a lot of Tory/LibDem marginals, and the Tories are up more than the LibDems. The correct odds are probably between 6-1 and 8-1.
Best cover is the over/under market at 31.5 with PP, as it covers nearly all plausible LD outcomes.
Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.
Still, the care from the doctors and two delightful paramedics was second to none and I always feel guilty at taking up their time. A&E was reasonably quiet. I expect all the drunks and drug addicts were at work. Probably in the City.
And I whiled away the waiting hours on here. Slightly surprised to find that commenting on a graph makes one pompous and patronising. But there you go: being attacked by @malcolmg and @roger probably counts as some sort of rite of passage on here.
One election thought from me: I am not a particular May fan but that picture of her a couple of weekends ago acting as a marshall in a race in her constituency probably sums up her appeal. Like so many people she was doing one of the very many small, unsung, unpaid, unglamorous, unheralded acts of kindness, charity, volunteering, help, what you will, of the type which lots and lots of us do to make life better. And on Monday morning also get up and do the day job. And that, in part, is why I think she - dull and dutiful as she may be - resonates with so many.
She is the Dorothea * of British politics. (* Middlemarch)
Just a thought.
One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.
And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.
Anyway, must be off. Bit of an up and down few hours, with marvellous tips, but the very best of them getting cancelled. Cheers everyone, particularly Mr. Pulpstar.
Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue? The Conservatives have a chance to capture both the Leave Labour and the Ukip vote.
Theresa May's bold pitch for a Brexit mandate will likely win significant support in Wales. Almost the entire Welsh political establishment supported Remain here last year. But the Welsh people voted Leave, and the polling evidence suggests that they have not changed their mind. A Brexit-focused campaign could be particularly problematic for Labour in its most iconic Welsh bastions: all of the south Wales valleys voted Leave, many by substantial margins.
I don't think the Valleys seats will ever go blue. They might have gone purple.
Probably most of the Valleys Labour MPs will hang on this time .,.. their percentage vote reduced yet again. They are waiting for Plaid to finally do what the SNP have already done to SLAB.
The Tories will take the 4 Welsh NE marginals & Bridgend.
But, then its the Newport & Cardiff seats that will come in to play rather than the Valleys seats.
Cardiff West, Cardiff South and Penarth, Bridgend, and the two Newports all have biggish Kipper votes to squeeze that are more than or close to the Labour majorities, add in some swing given recent national polls ( which I still can't quite believe !) and there's marginals where none have existed for decades if ever (Cardiff West and Newport West and Bridgend were Tory in 83. Cardiff South is Callaghan's old seat). Bridgend is the most likely ( it includes posher Porthcawl note), the others much less so.
Cardiff Central is a straight Lab Lib fight. Lab won it last time with a 4-5k majority. It's the remainiest seat (70%) in the remainiest city (60%) in Wales. Could be tight but suspect Lab might scrape it as they did in the Assembly election last year.
If it really is really really bad for Labour a real long shot is Torfaen (i.e. Pontypool and Cwmbran). It's a Valleys seat, but is the eastern most valley bordering the Newports and safe Tory Monmouth. Labour vote not as monolithic as further west (Cwmbran is a new town) Tories second and UKIP just behind with a big chunky vote. If that collapsed....... It would truly be end of days for Labour if they lost Torfaen but hey that it's even on the far edge of any remote possibility is mad.
Remain is dead. This new election will see the final death rattles of a corpse that has been twitching on the slab since last June. Around the country there are voters anxious to know whether their democratic right, and the decision they made last year to leave the EU, might be stolen from them by politics as usual.
There were fears that Brexit could be overturned in a shady backroom deal, or through the applications of sneaky lawyers. Voters ignored in countless elections could have been forgiven for wondering if the forces of bureaucracy would find a way to stop Britain freeing itself from the EU. Theresa May has ensured that this will not happen, and that the result will be honoured. This general election is the closest Remainers will ever get to a second referendum on 8 June, and they are going to be bitterly disappointed by the outcome.
Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.
Still, the care from the doctors and two delightful paramedics was second to none and I always feel guilty at taking up their time. A&E was reasonably quiet. I expect all the drunks and drug addicts were at work. Probably in the City.
And I whiled away the waiting hours on here. Slightly surprised to find that commenting on a graph makes one pompous and patronising. But there you go: being attacked by @malcolmg and @roger probably counts as some sort of rite of passage on here.
One election thought from me: I am not a particular May fan but that picture of her a couple of weekends ago acting as a marshall in a race in her constituency probably sums up her appeal. Like so many people she was doing one of the very many small, unsung, unpaid, unglamorous, unheralded acts of kindness, charity, volunteering, help, what you will, of the type which lots and lots of us do to make life better. And on Monday morning also get up and do the day job. And that, in part, is why I think she - dull and dutiful as she may be - resonates with so many.
She is the Dorothea * of British politics. (* Middlemarch)
Just a thought.
One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.
And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.
Anyway, need to be kind to myself for a bit.
Au revoir.
best of luck Cyclefree
feel free to lurk and drop in the occasional pearl of wisdom we'll miss you
Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.
Still, the care from the doctors and two delightful paramedics was second to none and I always feel guilty at taking up their time. A&E was reasonably quiet. I expect all the drunks and drug addicts were at work. Probably in the City.
And I whiled away the waiting hours on here. Slightly surprised to find that commenting on a graph makes one pompous and patronising. But there you go: being attacked by @malcolmg and @roger probably counts as some sort of rite of passage on here.
One election thought from me: I am not a particular May fan but that picture of her a couple of weekends ago acting as a marshall in a race in her constituency probably sums up her appeal. Like so many people she was doing one of the very many small, unsung, unpaid, unglamorous, unheralded acts of kindness, charity, volunteering, help, what you will, of the type which lots and lots of us do to make life better. And on Monday morning also get up and do the day job. And that, in part, is why I think she - dull and dutiful as she may be - resonates with so many.
She is the Dorothea * of British politics. (* Middlemarch)
Just a thought.
One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.
And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.
A huge wave of protest has swept the country over the past three weeks, with voters angry over Venezuela's economic collapse, surging food prices and shortages.
Why is Le Pen favourite to win the 1st round of French election on Betfair? Am I reading it wrong?
Supporters more certain to vote, I imagine, and had long time been in the lead.
The certainty to vote argument does not hold as much water now as it once did. Resolve is hardening as we get closer to the election.
The Harris poll yesterday gave the following certainty to vote numbers:
Fillon 85% Le Pen 84% Macron 79% Melenchon 73%
And being a long time in the lead is not really a good reason for her being favourite if she has lost that lead over the past month and all the momentum has been in a downward direction.
It is a mystery as to why she is considered more likely to top the poll. I am guessing people have just become accustomed to her being certain to be in the final round, but even that is not a foregone conclusion. In the latest Harris poll today, she is a lot nearer to dropping out on sunday (being just one point in front of Fillon) than she is to overhauling Macron ( a 3 point gap)
Sorry to hear you are ill, hope you get well soon. I have been having similar problems in the last month for very similar reasons and told to cool it down as well (trying desperately to make up for staff shortages by teaching double classes taking my de facto load to 26 hours a week wasn't a great idea? Who'd a thunk it)? Unfortunately a limit to what can be done three weeks before exams but I have taken the last fortnight off and done a lot of intensive landscaping of the garden. It has helped and I hope your roses have the same effect.
Why is Le Pen favourite to win the 1st round of French election on Betfair? Am I reading it wrong?
No. This is how you make money on political betting. See the obvious and back it (Macron)
Political Betting truly destroys the efficient market hypothesis.
I think the EMH only says that markets tend to become efficient over time: so e.g. Wall Street was inefficient two generations ago and you could make money by looking at company accounts and identifying mispriced shares, whereas now there is no point because all the company accounts have had the shit analysed out of them by 50 different teenage scribblers and the info is already in the price. Political betting is indeed in a golden age of inefficiency atm, but it may not last forever.
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
They didn't in Stoke though?
That's true, though it was only a by election.
Look at Reckless for a recent precedent for differing outcomes between a by election and a general election.
True
Blimey, if Dagenham goes Tory that really will be something extraordinary. Strange times!
In Stoke, I don't think right wing voters knew if it was better to back the Tories or UKIP. Now, they're converging on the Tories (Yougov has 42% of UKIP voters from 2015 going Conservative, 5% of the voters). Dagenham isn't that different from Thurrock or Castle Point.
Maybe... I am sure Labour have all the councillors in Dagenham though, whereas UKIP have the most in Thurrock
Open to being proved wrong though. As a local it just seems crazy to think of Dagenham as a Conservative place. Labour is doooomed!
In 2014 labour won 51/51 council seats. & ukip were runner up in 50!!
Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.
Still, the care from the doctors and two delightful paramedics was second to none and I always feel guilty at taking up their time. A&E was reasonably quiet. I expect all the drunks and drug addicts were at work. Probably in the City.
And I whiled away the waiting hours on here. Slightly surprised to find that commenting on a graph makes one pompous and patronising. But there you go: being attacked by @malcolmg and @roger probably counts as some sort of rite of passage on here.
One election thought from me: I am not a particular May fan but that picture of her a couple of weekends ago acting as a marshall in a race in her constituency probably sums up her appeal. Like so many people she was doing one of the very many small, unsung, unpaid, unglamorous, unheralded acts of kindness, charity, volunteering, help, what you will, of the type which lots and lots of us do to make life better. And on Monday morning also get up and do the day job. And that, in part, is why I think she - dull and dutiful as she may be - resonates with so many.
She is the Dorothea * of British politics. (* Middlemarch)
Just a thought.
One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.
And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.
Anyway, need to be kind to myself for a bit.
Au revoir.
Take it easy. I have had a lovely week in the garden, with a good footy match* and election to keep me occupied at tea breaks.
It may be those London diesel smogs. Get out of the Great Wen to recover.
*Juve look unbeatable to me. Shutting out Barca at home is a real feat. I reckon they will win the final 1 nil.
Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.
Still, the care from the doctors and two delightful paramedics was second to none and I always feel guilty at taking up their time. A&E was reasonably quiet. I expect all the drunks and drug addicts were at work. Probably in the City.
And I whiled away the waiting hours on here. Slightly surprised to find that commenting on a graph makes one pompous and patronising. But there you go: being attacked by @malcolmg and @roger probably counts as some sort of rite of passage on here.
One election thought from me: I am not a particular May fan but that picture of her a couple of weekends ago acting as a marshall in a race in her constituency probably sums up her appeal. Like so many people she was doing one of the very many small, unsung, unpaid, unglamorous, unheralded acts of kindness, charity, volunteering, help, what you will, of the type which lots and lots of us do to make life better. And on Monday morning also get up and do the day job. And that, in part, is why I think she - dull and dutiful as she may be - resonates with so many.
She is the Dorothea * of British politics. (* Middlemarch)
Just a thought.
One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.
And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.
Anyway, need to be kind to myself for a bit.
Au revoir.
Sorry to hear your unwell Cycle. Hope you feel better soon and will still come back to visit us occasionally.
Wikipedia's 'Ban' of 'The Daily Mail' Didn't Really Happen
Earlier this year, The Guardian reported that editors at Wikipedia had "voted to ban the Daily Mail as a source for the website," calling the publication "generally unreliable." Two months later, not only previous Daily Mail citations on Wikipedia pages are still alive, several new ones have also appeared since.
Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.
Still, the care from the doctors and two delightful paramedics was second to none and I always feel guilty at taking up their time. A&E was reasonably quiet. I expect all the drunks and drug addicts were at work. Probably in the City.
And I whiled away the waiting hours on here. Slightly surprised to find that commenting on a graph makes one pompous and patronising. But there you go: being attacked by @malcolmg and @roger probably counts as some sort of rite of passage on here.
One election thought from me: I am not a particular May fan but that picture of her a couple of weekends ago acting as a marshall in a race in her constituency probably sums up her appeal. Like so many people she was doing one of the very many small, unsung, unpaid, unglamorous, unheralded acts of kindness, charity, volunteering, help, what you will, of the type which lots and lots of us do to make life better. And on Monday morning also get up and do the day job. And that, in part, is why I think she - dull and dutiful as she may be - resonates with so many.
She is the Dorothea * of British politics. (* Middlemarch)
Just a thought.
One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.
And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.
Anyway, need to be kind to myself for a bit.
Au revoir.
Best wishes for a speedy recovery - and while May has some of the characteristics of Dorothea fortunately she's made a happier match! Anne Eliot (Persuasion) also springs to mind!
I am hoping for a 58 - 1 win for the SNP. The one will be Orkney and Shetland.
The SNP will lose at least 5 seats IMO and maybe as many as 10.
Two or three to the LibDems, and probably a similar number to the conservatives. Do you see any labour gains?
No. There could of course be a freak result somewhere like Lab gain East Lothian from SNP. IMO the Tories could pick up 8 seats from the SNP if things go particularly well for them: Berwickshire, Dumfries, Aberdeenshire West, Moray, Perth, Aberdeen South, Renfrewshire East, Edinburgh South. Angus is probably just out of reach.
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
They didn't in Stoke though?
Article 50 makes a difference, but I think I get your point. There is residual dislike of the babyeaters, enough to see a fair number of Labour MPs survive. I suspect that will mostly be by fighting as "independent" Labour.
Dagenham had a very Brexity feel to it when I worked around there three years ago.
The 'old Labour' fabric was being dismantled by population movement - "people being given £30,000 by "X" (Labour) London council to move out here" was one of the things I vividly recall. No idea of the veracity of that claim.
Get well soon cyclefree. You're the acceptable face of Brexit so look after yourself. There aren't many others. If you're not out by election day I'll come and visit you!
Comments
Edited extra bit: at the moment, Manchester Withington, and Richmond Park are still up.
Probably most of the Valleys Labour MPs will hang on this time .,.. their percentage vote reduced yet again. They are waiting for Plaid to finally do what the SNP have already done to SLAB.
The Tories will take the 4 Welsh NE marginals & Bridgend.
But, then its the Newport & Cardiff seats that will come in to play rather than the Valleys seats.
If Labour turned down the opportunity [however unlikely] of removing the Tories at the ballot box who would be left to support them? So you'd have Corbyn follow up backing Tories over Brexit [this has already happened] with being responsible for keeping May in number 10 rather than go to the polls to replace her?
Lib Dems would have made absolute hay at being the "only opposition" to the Tories and would have become the second largest party within a month.
An election now will be a bad beat for Labour, but like 1997 was a bad beat for the Tories they would eventually recover. Chickening out of an election altogether could be an existential catastrophe that could see Labour fail altogeher. Far worse.
Assume all Brexiteers vote for May, and all remainers Farron
I've just seen Marine Le Pen on TV without her Hitler moustache. I hardly recognised her.
My first question will be what facility they offer to customers who place a bet and subsequently decide that the odds were unreasonable.
Lab defence policy (whatever it might be) / Corbyn unwilling to press the button
Corbyn not supporting the Monarchy
These are the two issues which could go Lab support heading seriously further downwards.
Presumably May and the media will hold these back for the campaign proper?
Perhaps that doesn't apply this time ?
We'll see I guess.
Sputnik France’s coverage has a number of political biases. It is broadly critical of Macron, while being significantly less critical of Le Pen. Its coverage of Fillon has been more nuanced, but has tended to favor him, especially in its reports on his election chances.
This stance fits the three candidates’ positions on Russia. Fillon and Le Pen are both seen as pro-Kremlin; Le Pen even visited Moscow in late March. Macron is far more pro-EU, pro-Atlanticist, and Russia-skeptic. Thus for the Kremlin, a victory for either Fillon or Le Pen would be better than a Macron win.
https://medium.com/dfrlab/the-french-election-through-kremlin-eyes-5d85e0846c50
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-gives-new-ukip-leader-paul-nuttall-six-weeks-to-prove-himself-a3518966.html
Perhaps a deal with Tessa for a barony in the New Year honours?
Look at Reckless for a recent precedent for differing outcomes between a by election and a general election.
Brexit was my most profitable event, into the three figures.
Contrary to popular belief the Prime Minister does not have to resign after losing a confidence vote. James Callaghan was the last PM to lose a confidence vote. He did not resign immediately. That would have left the country without a government. He asked the Queen to dissolve parliament and remained as PM until the day after the general election, several weeks after losing the confidence vote.
The FPTA was passed in a time of coalition government. It is reasonable to assume that it envisaged a period of negotiation between the parties following a no confidence vote. During this time the original Prime Minister would remain in place (and may be one of those attempting to form a coalition) and would only go to the Queen to resign when a coalition was formed and it was clear who could command the confidence of the House of Commons.
So, let us imagine the opposition parties had not voted for an election and Theresa May then got her party to pass a vote of no confidence. The Queen always appoints as PM the person most likely to be able to command the confidence of the House. If Theresa May resigned the Queen would have asked her who could command the confidence of the House. Would Theresa May have named Corbyn? I very much doubt it. Could Corbyn command the confidence of the House? Clearly not. So no, I don't think Corbyn would have become PM. I believe Theresa May would have remained as PM unless someone else emerged who could command the confidence of the House (unlikely) and would only have resigned if she lost the subsequent election.
Blimey, if Dagenham goes Tory that really will be something extraordinary. Strange times!
BTW, a minor point - but the referendum obviously voted in a significant upswing in registered voters (from previous non/unregistered voters). These people will presumably still be on the list whereas in a few years they might have dropped off.
Also, I agree with Mr. kle4. Bet with small stakes and (even if Captain Moneybags) only bet what you can afford to lose.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darlington_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Macron as next president at 1.77 looks good. He is pretty certain to make the top 2, then win comfortably.
No further French polls from tommorow as I recall.
Still, the care from the doctors and two delightful paramedics was second to none and I always feel guilty at taking up their time. A&E was reasonably quiet. I expect all the drunks and drug addicts were at work. Probably in the City.
And I whiled away the waiting hours on here. Slightly surprised to find that commenting on a graph makes one pompous and patronising. But there you go: being attacked by @malcolmg and @roger probably counts as some sort of rite of passage on here.
One election thought from me: I am not a particular May fan but that picture of her a couple of weekends ago acting as a marshall in a race in her constituency probably sums up her appeal. Like so many people she was doing one of the very many small, unsung, unpaid, unglamorous, unheralded acts of kindness, charity, volunteering, help, what you will, of the type which lots and lots of us do to make life better. And on Monday morning also get up and do the day job. And that, in part, is why I think she - dull and dutiful as she may be - resonates with so many.
She is the Dorothea * of British politics. (* Middlemarch)
Just a thought.
One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.
And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.
Anyway, need to be kind to myself for a bit.
Au revoir.
Aschcrofts Scotland constituency polling was pretty accurate, he got Edinburgh South almost perfect.
Cardiff Central is a straight Lab Lib fight. Lab won it last time with a 4-5k majority. It's the remainiest seat (70%) in the remainiest city (60%) in Wales. Could be tight but suspect Lab might scrape it as they did in the Assembly election last year.
If it really is really really bad for Labour a real long shot is Torfaen (i.e. Pontypool and Cwmbran). It's a Valleys seat, but is the eastern most valley bordering the Newports and safe Tory Monmouth. Labour vote not as monolithic as further west (Cwmbran is a new town) Tories second and UKIP just behind with a big chunky vote. If that collapsed....... It would truly be end of days for Labour if they lost Torfaen but hey that it's even on the far edge of any remote possibility is mad.
There were fears that Brexit could be overturned in a shady backroom deal, or through the applications of sneaky lawyers. Voters ignored in countless elections could have been forgiven for wondering if the forces of bureaucracy would find a way to stop Britain freeing itself from the EU. Theresa May has ensured that this will not happen, and that the result will be honoured. This general election is the closest Remainers will ever get to a second referendum on 8 June, and they are going to be bitterly disappointed by the outcome.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/brexit-become-unstoppable-theresa-may-killing-remain-good/
feel free to lurk and drop in the occasional pearl of wisdom we'll miss you
come back soon
A huge wave of protest has swept the country over the past three weeks, with voters angry over Venezuela's economic collapse, surging food prices and shortages.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4429882/Venezuelans-face-police-anti-government-protests.html
The Harris poll yesterday gave the following certainty to vote numbers:
Fillon 85%
Le Pen 84%
Macron 79%
Melenchon 73%
And being a long time in the lead is not really a good reason for her being favourite if she has lost that lead over the past month and all the momentum has been in a downward direction.
It is a mystery as to why she is considered more likely to top the poll. I am guessing people have just become accustomed to her being certain to be in the final round, but even that is not a foregone conclusion. In the latest Harris poll today, she is a lot nearer to dropping out on sunday (being just one point in front of Fillon) than she is to overhauling Macron ( a 3 point gap)
Sorry to hear you are ill, hope you get well soon. I have been having similar problems in the last month for very similar reasons and told to cool it down as well (trying desperately to make up for staff shortages by teaching double classes taking my de facto load to 26 hours a week wasn't a great idea? Who'd a thunk it)? Unfortunately a limit to what can be done three weeks before exams but I have taken the last fortnight off and done a lot of intensive landscaping of the garden. It has helped and I hope your roses have the same effect.
Open to being proved wrong though. As a local it just seems crazy to think of Dagenham as a Conservative place. Labour is doooomed!
In 2014 labour won 51/51 council seats. & ukip were runner up in 50!!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barking_and_Dagenham_London_Borough_Council_election,_2014
It may be those London diesel smogs. Get out of the Great Wen to recover.
*Juve look unbeatable to me. Shutting out Barca at home is a real feat. I reckon they will win the final 1 nil.
BBC: 2 police officers shot in central Paris.
Wikipedia's 'Ban' of 'The Daily Mail' Didn't Really Happen
Earlier this year, The Guardian reported that editors at Wikipedia had "voted to ban the Daily Mail as a source for the website," calling the publication "generally unreliable." Two months later, not only previous Daily Mail citations on Wikipedia pages are still alive, several new ones have also appeared since.
http://m.slashdot.org/story/325209
Get well soon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
Best wishes to Cyclefree - rest and enjoy the rose!
The 'old Labour' fabric was being dismantled by population movement - "people being given £30,000 by "X" (Labour) London council to move out here" was one of the things I vividly recall. No idea of the veracity of that claim.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2017-04-20/reports-of-police-officers-injured-in-shooting-in-paris/
.......................................
All good wishes to @Cyclefree
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics