I feel like the right wing headbangers (and I mean the reallllly crazy ones, not merely hard brexiting leavers) aren't getting enough attention because of them.
It's also an interesting insight into a fundamental error in a lot of policy-making, particularly (but not only) on the left - the idea that people passively accept a change rather than responding to it. It's a logic most visible in tax policy, but also elsewhere (e.g. McDonnell's plan to crank up the printing presses at the Bank of England).
In fact, as those on here know, if you pile into the betting market for sentimental reasons, those not in it for sentimental reasons will graciously accept your generosity all day long by piling in on the other side of the see-saw.
I am of no party political persuasion. Can anyone tell me the differences between 'fake news', 'political spin' - and 'subterfuge' ?
I doubt there is any accepted definition that would pass muster. Personally I would suggest that fake news, an odious term that has cropped up in the past year, was supposed to refer to where stories were circulated that were just plain false, but has come to be thrown out at things that more spin. I would class spin as not telling outright falsehoods, but leaving things out, presenting things in as positive and negative a manner you can for partisan advantage, and so ruthless but not technically making things up. Subterfuge would I assume be deliberately hiding something, even suggesting you will do the opposite - so actively leading people away from the truth, rather than spin where you just try to polish it.
“Russia will be watching Labour’s feebleness that Jeremy Corbyn has not supported this deployment… Putin would certainly welcome feebler British defence.”
I feel like the right wing headbangers (and I mean the reallllly crazy ones, not merely hard brexiting leavers) aren't getting enough attention because of them.
Pretty sure there is enough laughter in the world to take the piss out of both sets.
I am of no party political persuasion. Can anyone tell me the differences between 'fake news', 'political spin' - and 'subterfuge' ?
I doubt there is any accepted definition that would pass muster. Personally I would suggest that fake news, an odious term that has cropped up in the past year, was supposed to refer to where stories were circulated that were just plain false, but has come to be thrown out at things that more spin. I would class spin as not telling outright falsehoods, but leaving things out, presenting things in as positive and negative a manner you can for partisan advantage, and so ruthless but not technically making things up. Subterfuge would I assume be deliberately hiding something, even suggesting you will do the opposite - so actively leading people away from the truth, rather than spin where you just try to polish it.
Excellent. Much more precise than all/most politicians
I think kle4 describes it right on fake news/spin/subterfuge.
Of course, "fake news" has been widely redefined (starting with Trump in the US, but picked up by Momentum here) as, essentially, spin, or even just news you'd rather not see reported.
When Trump talks about investigations into senior campaign staff over Russian links as "fake news", that simply isn't correct in the literal sense - they ARE definitely being investigated. It's possible he's right that the significance has been over-hyped, or that there are innocent explanations for all contacts, or that there aren't but he was in the dark. But "fake news" it isn't.
Enjoyed Polly's piece from earlier today. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/general-election-labour-annihilation-jeremy-corbyn Wrong, wrong and wrong again. Was ever there a more crassly inept politician than Jeremy Corbyn, whose every impulse is to make the wrong call on everything? It’s not excitingly flamboyant red radicalism that has done for Labour, but his sluggish incompetence at the absolute basics of leadership.
Enjoyed Polly's piece from earlier today. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/general-election-labour-annihilation-jeremy-corbyn Wrong, wrong and wrong again. Was ever there a more crassly inept politician than Jeremy Corbyn, whose every impulse is to make the wrong call on everything? It’s not excitingly flamboyant red radicalism that has done for Labour, but his sluggish incompetence at the absolute basics of leadership.
@stephenkb: Am hearing from reliable source that Michael Dugher is standing down.
Blinking heck - Labour are losing some quality people.
Is McFadden gonna stand?
"but there are some of us, I think many of us, who will not accept that this blow need be mortal: who will not believe that such an end is inevitable. There are some of us who will fight, and fight, and fight again, to save the party we love."
I'm sure the bookies would be happy to increase the liability on Labour considering the source of these Mug Tenner bets.
I'd be interested to know how far they analyse that, and how far they just have an automatic stop-loss that kicks in so that they can't lose more than x% of market size on any particular outcome. My guess is that Shadsy has some latitude to run up a potential liability on an unlikely outcome, but not total freedom... but would be genuinely interested in that.
In any event, though, even if there was some kind of automatic stop-loss adjustment, they'd quickly find non-mug tenners to balance it off and push the Labour price out again.
Unwise. Her record as Home Secretary in that respect is not one she wants a focus on, especially for non EU immigration that she could have done something about.
Cameron fucked up the timing so badly. And the dramaturgy. He should have stormed out of the negotiations saying This isn't good enough!", then he could have threatened to campaign for Leave unless he got something more, then six months later Brussels would have yielded some meaningless "better deal"....
All of this should have been pre-arranged and secretly choreographed with Paris and Berlin and the Commission...
What a dork he was. Just a very bad politician. BAD.
Having the Sun and the monarch supporting Leave, and fielding a transvestite wearing lipstick and a pink beret to make the case for Remain against Nigel Farage on Question Time, also helped.
Unwise. Her record as Home Secretary in that respect is not one she wants a focus on, especially for non EU immigration that she could have done something about.
I think you're all missing the point here, she's not trying to get the EEA leavers vote. This is bread and butter 17 million leave vote stuff - UKIP just didn't have the brand that the Tories do.
Looks like these Momentum numpties have misread the email from Jezza asking us all to donate £10.
I have promised myself that I will go to bed after the exit poll on election night. Staying up would be the political equivalent of sticking pins in my eyes for 8 hours.
Dawn butler is the idiots idiot...makes Lucy Powell look like a genius. She should be nowhere near parliament. The only thing she is good at is claiming expenses for things she shouldn't be.
Surely a gift to UKIP in the years to come, as immigration inevitably remains in the 100,000s.
May isn't worried about the "years to come". This is all about June 8th.
I think that's very short-termist, and unnecessary given the polling. Look at how DC's "cast iron promise" came back to haunt him again and again and again.
Unwise. Her record as Home Secretary in that respect is not one she wants a focus on, especially for non EU immigration that she could have done something about.
Agreed. Unless she takes students out of the numbers (which she refuses to do) then this is unachievable. Which is why she failed to achieve it as Home Sec, as you say.
However it depends on the phrasing in the manifesto. If she commits to this in the next parliament it would be insane. If she says it is a long term aim, then fair enough. The wording will be crucial.
Definitely has to be in aspiration territory. But leaving it at the take back control point is better. Especially if combined with it will be regulated to meet the needs of our economy from time to time (which, of course, it always should have been). At times of fairly full employment this might mean quite high immigration to sustain growth. So be it.
That is what happens when you believe your own press, she ended up punch drunk. Way beyond her talent level and more gubbings to come for sure. When will we see her run south with her tail between her legs.
I'm sure the bookies would be happy to increase the liability on Labour considering the source of these Mug Tenner bets.
I'd be interested to know how far they analyse that, and how far they just have an automatic stop-loss that kicks in so that they can't lose more than x% of market size on any particular outcome. My guess is that Shadsy has some latitude to run up a potential liability on an unlikely outcome, but not total freedom... but would be genuinely interested in that.
In any event, though, even if there was some kind of automatic stop-loss adjustment, they'd quickly find non-mug tenners to balance it off and push the Labour price out again.
I would guess any slight shorting off the odds on Labour would lead to the Tories drifting. That's the point were the smart money will come in for the Tories. Basically momentum don't have the financial clout to move the market against the smart money in a high volume market such as this.
Because if she doesn't, the media will say target abandoned, she won't reduce immigration etc etc and it opens her up to massive attack.
Which is why she also must stick to pensions triple lock.
People on here remind me of cricket commentators who always say the captain should declare but when they were captain they didn't.
It's so easy to say take a risk when you are not responsible. When you are in the hot seat it looks very different.
One only needs to see how self-employed NICs blew up in the Government face. May cannot risk something similar on immigration or pensions - areas which are of much greater importance to far more people.
Shield against UKIP? What evidence is there that she needs one? Is Crosby misreading this?
It may well be that Crosby's reasoning is that, if a Tory win is seen as a racing certainty, that gives right-wingers space to make a point by casting a UKIP vote, denying the Tories seats at the margins (and especially against the Lib Dems in places). They need something to give those voters on the doorstep (and over the airwaves etc).
Dawn butler is the idiots idiot...makes Lucy Powell look like a genius. She should be nowhere near parliament. The only thing she is good at is claiming expenses for things she shouldn't be.
Don't knock her, she is one of my best results for next Labour leader, +3 grand or some such :>
Unwise. Her record as Home Secretary in that respect is not one she wants a focus on, especially for non EU immigration that she could have done something about.
Interesting. It was probably a failure she feels keenly. She could just blame Cameron for it, like so much else.
Congratulations to Betfair Sportsbook on having stolen a march on the rest of the bookmaking fraternity by having already posted up odds for hundreds of constituencies throughout the UK, whilst their rivals have yet to start - you've been well and truly outmanoeuvred on this occasion Shadsy!
What a difference a few months make - in my neighbouring constituency of Richmond Park here in S.W. London, where Zac Goldsmith was toppled after forcing a by-election in December, the Tories are now 1/200 to recapture this seat from the LibDems who are on offer at 25/1, just ahead of Labour at 33/1.
Congratulations to Betfair Sportsbook on having stolen a march on the rest of the bookmaking fraternity by having already posted up odds for hundreds of constituencies throughout the UK, whilst their rivals have yet to start - you've been well and truly outmanoeuvred on this occasion Shadsy!
What a difference a few months make - in my neighbouring constituency of Richmond Park here in S.W. London, where Zac Goldsmith was toppled after forcing a by-election in December, the Tories are now 1/200 to recapture this seat from the LibDems who are on offer at 25/1, just ahead of Labour at 33/1.
Wow. 25/1 looks seriously tempting. I would expect the Tories to regain it but it is not that level of certainty.
Congratulations to Betfair Sportsbook on having stolen a march on the rest of the bookmaking fraternity by having already posted up odds for hundreds of constituencies throughout the UK, whilst their rivals have yet to start - you've been well and truly outmanoeuvred on this occasion Shadsy!
What a difference a few months make - in my neighbouring constituency of Richmond Park here in S.W. London, where Zac Goldsmith was toppled after forcing a by-election in December, the Tories are now 1/200 to recapture this seat from the LibDems who are on offer at 25/1, just ahead of Labour at 33/1.
That LD price won't last more than a few seconds, so pile on..
I have been looking at West Bromwich East. Could be an interesting result once the votes are counted in June. Depending on boundary changes the seat was pretty close in 1992 & 1987. Might Tom Watson be in trouble?
Because if she doesn't, the media will say target abandoned, she won't reduce immigration etc etc and it opens her up to massive attack.
Which is why she also must stick to pensions triple lock.
People on here remind me of cricket commentators who always say the captain should declare but when they were captain they didn't.
It's so easy to say take a risk when you are not responsible. When you are in the hot seat it looks very different.
One only needs to see how self-employed NICs blew up in the Government face. May cannot risk something similar on immigration or pensions - areas which are of much greater importance to far more people.
Saying it and doing it are two different things.
This will blow up in her face sometime soon. The masses who voted Brexit to keep Johnny Foreigner out will go ballistic!
Congratulations to Betfair Sportsbook on having stolen a march on the rest of the bookmaking fraternity by having already posted up odds for hundreds of constituencies throughout the UK, whilst their rivals have yet to start - you've been well and truly outmanoeuvred on this occasion Shadsy!
What a difference a few months make - in my neighbouring constituency of Richmond Park here in S.W. London, where Zac Goldsmith was toppled after forcing a by-election in December, the Tories are now 1/200 to recapture this seat from the LibDems who are on offer at 25/1, just ahead of Labour at 33/1.
25/1 sounds like value considering their MP is the incumbent. I'd expect more like 4/1
Comments
I feel like the right wing headbangers (and I mean the reallllly crazy ones, not merely hard brexiting leavers) aren't getting enough attention because of them.
1st round
Macron 24%
Le Pen 22.5%
Fillon 19.5%
Melenchon 18.5%
Runoff
Macron 61%
Le Pen 39%
http://m.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-presidentielle-Macron-creuse-l-ecart-1237664
Political Spin - The Party you voted for last time
Subterfuge - The Party you are voting for this time
In fact, as those on here know, if you pile into the betting market for sentimental reasons, those not in it for sentimental reasons will graciously accept your generosity all day long by piling in on the other side of the see-saw.
I also did Batley and Spen at 6/4 - I don't think the Jo Cox effect will affect the Tories and their vote pool looks very promising there.
Michael Fallon:
“Russia will be watching Labour’s feebleness that Jeremy Corbyn has not supported this deployment… Putin would certainly welcome feebler British defence.”
61-39 r2.
Mr. P, I'd swap the spin/subterfuge definitions. Subterfuge sounds worse than spin, to me.
ROFL
I assume they'll keep betting more to bring the odds down further.
When Corbyn is Even money they'll have to up the stakes.
Of course, "fake news" has been widely redefined (starting with Trump in the US, but picked up by Momentum here) as, essentially, spin, or even just news you'd rather not see reported.
When Trump talks about investigations into senior campaign staff over Russian links as "fake news", that simply isn't correct in the literal sense - they ARE definitely being investigated. It's possible he's right that the significance has been over-hyped, or that there are innocent explanations for all contacts, or that there aren't but he was in the dark. But "fake news" it isn't.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/fmq-analysis-rare-davidson-missteps-allow-sturgeon-to-shine-1-4424633
Is McFadden gonna stand?
SeanT said:
» show previous quotes
Meh. He was cruel and vindictive, even bullying, when he wanted to be. I feel no remorse.
I just miss his wit and insight.
He gave as good as he got (which was often a hell of a lot). I was never quite sure where the misogyny claims came from.
He was a sneering whining twunt, well rid of him.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/19/general-election-labour-annihilation-jeremy-corbyn
Wrong, wrong and wrong again. Was ever there a more crassly inept politician than Jeremy Corbyn, whose every impulse is to make the wrong call on everything? It’s not excitingly flamboyant red radicalism that has done for Labour, but his sluggish incompetence at the absolute basics of leadership.
Some vicious infighting in the comments.
In any event, though, even if there was some kind of automatic stop-loss adjustment, they'd quickly find non-mug tenners to balance it off and push the Labour price out again.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/north-korea-warns-super-mighty-preemptive-strike-will-reduce/
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/855094005050335232
Remind me how that ended for Labour?
There is an economic cost however.
Did she really say this? Just comical.
I have promised myself that I will go to bed after the exit poll on election night. Staying up would be the political equivalent of sticking pins in my eyes for 8 hours.
We'll see how the campaign goes, and I recognise the Tories should still not be complacent, but it seems like she is overly cautious in some respects.
Because if she doesn't, the media will say target abandoned, she won't reduce immigration etc etc and it opens her up to massive attack.
Which is why she also must stick to pensions triple lock.
People on here remind me of cricket commentators who always say the captain should declare but when they were captain they didn't.
It's so easy to say take a risk when you are not responsible. When you are in the hot seat it looks very different.
One only needs to see how self-employed NICs blew up in the Government face. May cannot risk something similar on immigration or pensions - areas which are of much greater importance to far more people.
Mcfadden is an outspoken denouncer of Islamic terrorism (Corbyn sacked him for this), so I wonder if this is an organised refusal to stand....
What a difference a few months make - in my neighbouring constituency of Richmond Park here in S.W. London, where Zac Goldsmith was toppled after forcing a by-election in December, the Tories are now 1/200 to recapture this seat from the LibDems who are on offer at 25/1, just ahead of Labour at 33/1.
Might Tom Watson be in trouble?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Bromwich_East_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
This will blow up in her face sometime soon. The masses who voted Brexit to keep Johnny Foreigner out will go ballistic!
Did Dawn Butler just accuse Costa Coffee (owned by UK domiciled and listed listed Whitbread) of tax dodging?