ITV Wales highlighting problems for Welsh labour as the First Minister gets a poor reception on the doors in traditional heartlands. If this report is anything like the opinions in Wales labour are in for a very bad result in the GE in Wales.
Hope so - I just accidentally back the tories for a tenner in Aberavon.....
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.
They're reporting independent research:
More than half a million Scottish jobs – around one in four – depend on Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK, new research published today reveals. That is more than four times as many jobs supported by EU trade.
The figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute show:
around 530,000 jobs in Scotland (nearly one in four of all jobs) are supported by demand for Scottish goods and services from the rest of the UK;
more than 175,000 jobs in Scotland are supported by export demand from the rest of the world; and
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
The Dawn Butler comment is the type where you finally get an idea whether an MP is truly, genuinely stupid, or so partisan they will say anything, however foolish - that is to say, still very stupid.
I don't like to get so personal, but if she meant what she said, she's just plain thick, and I say that without looking at her details, where I am sure she is better educated and more successful than me (she's an MP for starters).
kle , you kid yourself if you think being an MP means they must have any brain cells at all. Most are thicker than mince and twice as stupid.
Oh I don't think it means they are smarter than I am - it means they are more successful though! It just doesn't necessarily take talent to achieve it, though it can happen.
I suspect Betfair will void all these bets as palpable errors, so don't spend your winnings yet lads...
Plus all your accounts will be marked as "rats"
Their rules:
Errors
Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets.
However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either:
materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or
clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’. The ‘correct price’ will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably).
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.
They're reporting independent research:
More than half a million Scottish jobs – around one in four – depend on Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK, new research published today reveals. That is more than four times as many jobs supported by EU trade.
The figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute show:
around 530,000 jobs in Scotland (nearly one in four of all jobs) are supported by demand for Scottish goods and services from the rest of the UK;
more than 175,000 jobs in Scotland are supported by export demand from the rest of the world; and
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
Mr. rkrkrk, let's wait and see what happens. If they're honoured, it's fine. If not, hashtags and Twitter may call.
Voiding if the situation changes may be fair enough (as per my cheeky Not To Be Classified bets on drivers not actually taking part in a given race), but if they've just priced it wrong that's their problem.
Punters don't get to bet, then decide they don't want to risk their money any more. Unless the event itself changes, bookies and exchanges should honour bets.
I suspect Betfair will void all these bets as palpable errors, so don't spend your winnings yet lads...
Plus all your accounts will be marked as "rats"
Their rules:
Errors
Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets.
However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either:
materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or
clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’. The ‘correct price’ will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably).
Paddy - to their credit - has never palped a bet with me.
Mind you I've never been able to bet on Redwood holding his seat at 60-1.
I suspect Betfair will void all these bets as palpable errors, so don't spend your winnings yet lads...
Plus all your accounts will be marked as "rats"
Their rules:
Errors
Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets.
However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either:
materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or
clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’. The ‘correct price’ will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably).
I hate bookmakers and am currently in dispute with one over a bet they wont honour, but if they price a market up to 11.4%, I think they are allowed to play the palp card!"
I suspect Betfair will void all these bets as palpable errors, so don't spend your winnings yet lads...
Plus all your accounts will be marked as "rats"
Their rules:
Errors
Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets.
However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either:
materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or
clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’. The ‘correct price’ will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably).
I suspect Betfair will void all these bets as palpable errors, so don't spend your winnings yet lads...
Plus all your accounts will be marked as "rats"
Their rules:
Errors
Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets.
However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either:
materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or
clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’. The ‘correct price’ will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably).
I hate bookmakers and am currently in dispute with one over a bet they wont honour, but if they price a market up to 13.4%, I think they are allowed to play the palp card!"
South Holland and the Deepings was priced to about 130% or so though
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.
They're reporting independent research:
More than half a million Scottish jobs – around one in four – depend on Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK, new research published today reveals. That is more than four times as many jobs supported by EU trade.
The figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute show:
around 530,000 jobs in Scotland (nearly one in four of all jobs) are supported by demand for Scottish goods and services from the rest of the UK;
more than 175,000 jobs in Scotland are supported by export demand from the rest of the world; and
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
I suspect Betfair will void all these bets as palpable errors, so don't spend your winnings yet lads...
Plus all your accounts will be marked as "rats"
Their rules:
Errors
Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets.
However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either:
materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or
clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’. The ‘correct price’ will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably).
Presumably that's sports book not exchange?
Gorton is where the fun will happen with the exchange.
I think labour in Bristol west at 2.87 might be a good shot. The one party they really shouldn't lose votes to is the greens!
On the other hand if left-wing voters in Bristol West can see that Labour are heading for a big defeat overall they might decide to vote Green instead.
I suspect Betfair will void all these bets as palpable errors, so don't spend your winnings yet lads...
Plus all your accounts will be marked as "rats"
Their rules:
Errors
Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets.
However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either:
materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or
clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’. The ‘correct price’ will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably).
I hate bookmakers and am currently in dispute with one over a bet they wont honour, but if they price a market up to 13.4%, I think they are allowed to play the palp card!"
South Holland and the Deepings was priced to about 130% or so though
Yeah! They should prob wear a small bet there and put it down to experience... they wont though!
I suspect Betfair will void all these bets as palpable errors, so don't spend your winnings yet lads...
Plus all your accounts will be marked as "rats"
Their rules:
Errors
Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets.
However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either:
materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or
clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’. The ‘correct price’ will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably).
Damn - my winnings on mine would be enough to make up the difference if I am wrong about every other I have.
I think labour in Bristol west at 2.87 might be a good shot. The one party they really shouldn't lose votes to is the greens!
On the other hand if left-wing voters in Bristol West can see that Labour are heading for a big defeat overall they might decide to vote Green instead.
Really? I'd have thought having got a Labour party that really is left wing... They'd be desperate for it to succeed!
Well if the coming LibDem surge overwhelms Wokingham and I never see my £120, I won't be too unhappy. In such circumstances I probably have £100 coming my way from our Robert.
Apologies if already posted but the Unite leadership election is on a knife edge apparently (according to BBC) – McCluskey originally forecast to win easily. Even if McCluskey does scrape home, could it weaken his support for Corbyn if membership is swinging Anti-Corbyn? If Coyne wins...
Mr. kle4, some surprise. When I had a dispute with Ladbrokes on a bet (Merhi not to be classified) they simply acknowledged they made an error and it was rendered void (he didn't start the race, so I was expecting void, but knew there was a small chance of it paying out).
It's not on to simply change the odds and keep the stake money. Even voiding is better than that (because then you have a choice to adopt the new odds or not).
I suspect Betfair will void all these bets as palpable errors, so don't spend your winnings yet lads...
Plus all your accounts will be marked as "rats"
Their rules:
Errors
Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets.
However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either:
materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or
clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’. The ‘correct price’ will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably).
I hate bookmakers and am currently in dispute with one over a bet they wont honour, but if they price a market up to 13.4%, I think they are allowed to play the palp card!"
South Holland and the Deepings was priced to about 130% or so though
Yeah! They should prob wear a small bet there and put it down to experience... they wont though!
Be a bit mean for £1.07 worth of stakes to be voided !
Been thinking a little about the possibility that the Ukip vote may finally be collapsing, and - just maybe - going over to the Conservatives wholesale.
If something seems too good to be true then it probably is. However... if the Tory and Ukip votes were to coalesce behind a single candidate, then any Labour seat where the combined Right vote in 2015 was within 10% of that of the Labour incumbent would, presumably, be under serious threat.
Anyone who thinks there's a reasonable chance of the Ukip vote collapsing, and of most of it migrating over to support Mrs May, might wish to consider whether some very unlikely Tory gains might be possible. Perhaps not - BUT... look what happened last time in Scotland.
Been thinking a little about the possibility that the Ukip vote may finally be collapsing, and - just maybe - going over to the Conservatives wholesale.
If something seems too good to be true then it probably is. However... if the Tory and Ukip votes were to coalesce behind a single candidate, then any Labour seat where the combined Right vote in 2015 was within 10% of that of the Labour incumbent would, presumably, be under serious threat.
This includes some of Labour's safest seats. Scandal-plagued Rotherham, and Barnsley East where Corbyn-sceptic Michael Dugher is rumoured to be considering standing down, would be amongst the seats rendered vulnerable. Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central) could also come under threat under such circumstances.
Anyone who thinks there's a reasonable chance of the Ukip vote collapsing, and of most of it migrating over to support Mrs May, might wish to consider whether some very unlikely Tory gains might be possible. Perhaps not - BUT... look what happened last time in Scotland.
I backed Labour in Dagenham at 1/2, but that seat is under threat according to your logic, which I can understand
I think Lab have every council seat there though. Would be amazing if Europe's biggest council estate went Blue
Apologies if already posted but the Unite leadership election is on a knife edge apparently (according to BBC) – McCluskey originally forecast to win easily. Even if McCluskey does scrape home, could it weaken his support for Corbyn if membership is swinging Anti-Corbyn? If Coyne wins...
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.
They're reporting independent research:
More than half a million Scottish jobs – around one in four – depend on Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK, new research published today reveals. That is more than four times as many jobs supported by EU trade.
The figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute show:
around 530,000 jobs in Scotland (nearly one in four of all jobs) are supported by demand for Scottish goods and services from the rest of the UK;
more than 175,000 jobs in Scotland are supported by export demand from the rest of the world; and
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
The PaddyPower/Betfair fiasco will be interesting.
I think they will void some on the basis of obvious error. The odds were inverted so you could get Tories at 100-1 in Surrey Heath and 60-1 in Wokingham, rather than 1-100 and 1-60. The odds on other candidates reflected this - they were all at long odds too as you'd have expected had the blues been correctly priced as overwhelming favourites.
Richmond Park, I'm not sure about. It wasn't obviously inverted odds in that case - seems to have been priced based on 2015 result, which ignores important subsequent information, but isn't obviously crazy in the same way. Fingers crossed!
The PaddyPower/Betfair fiasco will be interesting.
I think they will void some on the basis of obvious error. The odds were inverted so you could get Tories at 100-1 in Surrey Heath and 60-1 in Wokingham, rather than 1-100 and 1-60. The odds on other candidates reflected this - they were all at long odds too as you'd have expected had the blues been correctly priced as overwhelming favourites.
Richmond Park, I'm not sure about. It wasn't obviously inverted odds in that case - seems to have been priced based on 2015 result, which ignores important subsequent information, but isn't obviously crazy in the same way. Fingers crossed!
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.
They're reporting independent research:
More than half a million Scottish jobs – around one in four – depend on Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK, new research published today reveals. That is more than four times as many jobs supported by EU trade.
The figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute show:
around 530,000 jobs in Scotland (nearly one in four of all jobs) are supported by demand for Scottish goods and services from the rest of the UK;
more than 175,000 jobs in Scotland are supported by export demand from the rest of the world; and
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
The PaddyPower/Betfair fiasco will be interesting.
I think they will void some on the basis of obvious error. The odds were inverted so you could get Tories at 100-1 in Surrey Heath and 60-1 in Wokingham, rather than 1-100 and 1-60.
But now its 1/200. Seems like 1/60 would be fairer, if the issue was inverting due to error.
Norwich South looks interesting. Labour are very much favourites in the Betfair/Paddy market, but you could make a case for LibDems or the Greens here, or the Tories if the non-Tory vote splits three ways.
Only the Tories would threaten Labour in Norwich South.The Greens are in decline here and the LibDems collapsed to fourth place in 2017. The seat went Tory in 1983 and only very narrowly won back by Labour in 1987.
Been thinking a little about the possibility that the Ukip vote may finally be collapsing, and - just maybe - going over to the Conservatives wholesale.
If something seems too good to be true then it probably is. However... if the Tory and Ukip votes were to coalesce behind a single candidate, then any Labour seat where the combined Right vote in 2015 was within 10% of that of the Labour incumbent would, presumably, be under serious threat.
This includes some of Labour's safest seats. Scandal-plagued Rotherham, and Barnsley East where Corbyn-sceptic Michael Dugher is rumoured to be considering standing down, would be amongst the seats rendered vulnerable. Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central) could also come under threat under such circumstances.
Anyone who thinks there's a reasonable chance of the Ukip vote collapsing, and of most of it migrating over to support Mrs May, might wish to consider whether some very unlikely Tory gains might be possible. Perhaps not - BUT... look what happened last time in Scotland.
I backed Labour in Dagenham at 1/2, but that seat is under threat according to your logic, which I can understand
I think Lab have every council seat there though. Would be amazing if Europe's biggest council estate went Blue
You've probably got a winner but I couldn't back Labour there with any confidence at 1-2.
The PaddyPower/Betfair fiasco will be interesting.
I think they will void some on the basis of obvious error. The odds were inverted so you could get Tories at 100-1 in Surrey Heath and 60-1 in Wokingham, rather than 1-100 and 1-60.
But now its 1/200. Seems like 1/60 would be fairer, if the issue was inverting due to error.
I know Surrey is fairly Remain, but I am not sure that would justify pricing Wokingham Tories at 1/60 when the default odds for every other shire safe seat appears to be 1/200?
The PaddyPower/Betfair fiasco will be interesting.
I think they will void some on the basis of obvious error. The odds were inverted so you could get Tories at 100-1 in Surrey Heath and 60-1 in Wokingham, rather than 1-100 and 1-60.
But now its 1/200. Seems like 1/60 would be fairer, if the issue was inverting due to error.
I know Surrey is fairly Remain, but I am not sure that would justify pricing Wokingham Tories at 1/60 when the default odds for every other shire safe seat appears to be 1/200?
I meant fair in the sense of, ok, it was an error on their part, but it wasn't as simple as they put the numbers the wrong way round, so you can have it at 1/60- it's not like that is going to cost them anything really!
1) Half of the kippers will vote for the Conservatives. 2) One in eight Labour supporters will abstain. 3) One in eight Labour supporters will vote Conservative.
I think the Conservatives will take it quite comfortably.
On Richmond Park, the odds were actually 33/1 to start with. I got on at that price, and then they dropped it to 25/1. So I don't think it was a palp, it was just a bit of over-enthusiasm on the degree to which the Tories should be favourites.
Been thinking a little about the possibility that the Ukip vote may finally be collapsing, and - just maybe - going over to the Conservatives wholesale.
If something seems too good to be true then it probably is. However... if the Tory and Ukip votes were to coalesce behind a single candidate, then any Labour seat where the combined Right vote in 2015 was within 10% of that of the Labour incumbent would, presumably, be under serious threat.
This includes some of Labour's safest seats. Scandal-plagued Rotherham, and Barnsley East where Corbyn-sceptic Michael Dugher is rumoured to be considering standing down, would be amongst the seats rendered vulnerable. Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central) could also come under threat under such circumstances.
Anyone who thinks there's a reasonable chance of the Ukip vote collapsing, and of most of it migrating over to support Mrs May, might wish to consider whether some very unlikely Tory gains might be possible. Perhaps not - BUT... look what happened last time in Scotland.
I backed Labour in Dagenham at 1/2, but that seat is under threat according to your logic, which I can understand
I think Lab have every council seat there though. Would be amazing if Europe's biggest council estate went Blue
You've probably got a winner but I couldn't back Labour there with any confidence at 1-2.
What price Lab in Stoke on Trent Central? That seems similar to me
Been thinking a little about the possibility that the Ukip vote may finally be collapsing, and - just maybe - going over to the Conservatives wholesale.
If something seems too good to be true then it probably is. However... if the Tory and Ukip votes were to coalesce behind a single candidate, then any Labour seat where the combined Right vote in 2015 was within 10% of that of the Labour incumbent would, presumably, be under serious threat.
This includes some of Labour's safest seats. Scandal-plagued Rotherham, and Barnsley East where Corbyn-sceptic Michael Dugher is rumoured to be considering standing down, would be amongst the seats rendered vulnerable. Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central) could also come under threat under such circumstances.
Anyone who thinks there's a reasonable chance of the Ukip vote collapsing, and of most of it migrating over to support Mrs May, might wish to consider whether some very unlikely Tory gains might be possible. Perhaps not - BUT... look what happened last time in Scotland.
I backed Labour in Dagenham at 1/2, but that seat is under threat according to your logic, which I can understand
I think Lab have every council seat there though. Would be amazing if Europe's biggest council estate went Blue
You've probably got a winner but I couldn't back Labour there with any confidence at 1-2.
Once upon a time if you had wanted a dead cert Labour win you'd have gone for inner city Glasgow. There's a lesson there for anyone contemplating large stakes Labour bets this time.
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.
They're reporting independent research:
More than half a million Scottish jobs – around one in four – depend on Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK, new research published today reveals. That is more than four times as many jobs supported by EU trade.
The figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute show:
around 530,000 jobs in Scotland (nearly one in four of all jobs) are supported by demand for Scottish goods and services from the rest of the UK;
more than 175,000 jobs in Scotland are supported by export demand from the rest of the world; and
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
Labour MP Helen Goodman: election is not about changing government, it's about stopping the Tories winning such a big majority that they prevent all dissent.
European parliament president Antonio Tajani said EU departure process could easily be reversed if there is change of UK government
They need to pay more attention. We would be changing from Tory Brexit to Corbyn Brexit. Whilst the inmates are in charge of the asylum, do not expect too much change
European parliament president Antonio Tajani said EU departure process could easily be reversed if there is change of UK government
They need to pay more attention. We would be changing from Tory Brexit to Corbyn Brexit. Whilst the inmates are in charge of the asylum, do not expect too much change
It's also a load of cobblers:
“If the UK, after the election, wants to withdraw [Article 50], then the procedure is very clear,” he said in an interview. “If the UK wanted to stay, everybody would be in favour. I would be very happy.”
The PaddyPower/Betfair fiasco will be interesting.
I think they will void some on the basis of obvious error. The odds were inverted so you could get Tories at 100-1 in Surrey Heath and 60-1 in Wokingham, rather than 1-100 and 1-60.
But now its 1/200. Seems like 1/60 would be fairer, if the issue was inverting due to error.
I know Surrey is fairly Remain, but I am not sure that would justify pricing Wokingham Tories at 1/60 when the default odds for every other shire safe seat appears to be 1/200?
I meant fair in the sense of, ok, it was an error on their part, but it wasn't as simple as they put the numbers the wrong way round, so you can have it at 1/60- it's not like that is going to cost them anything really!
I guess it will depend if anyone managed to get a serious bet on during the few seconds it was available. In their position, if there are just a few punters who like me managed to click through minimum bets before it was suspended, then I'd take the hit for goodwill. I guess the question is that presumably some sort of large bet would have been needed to alert them to their mistake?
Been thinking a little about the possibility that the Ukip vote may finally be collapsing, and - just maybe - going over to the Conservatives wholesale.
If something seems too good to be true then it probably is. However... if the Tory and Ukip votes were to coalesce behind a single candidate, then any Labour seat where the combined Right vote in 2015 was within 10% of that of the Labour incumbent would, presumably, be under serious threat.
This includes some of Labour's safest seats. Scandal-plagued Rotherham, and Barnsley East where Corbyn-sceptic Michael Dugher is rumoured to be considering standing down, would be amongst the seats rendered vulnerable. Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central) could also come under threat under such circumstances.
Anyone who thinks there's a reasonable chance of the Ukip vote collapsing, and of most of it migrating over to support Mrs May, might wish to consider whether some very unlikely Tory gains might be possible. Perhaps not - BUT... look what happened last time in Scotland.
I backed Labour in Dagenham at 1/2, but that seat is under threat according to your logic, which I can understand
I think Lab have every council seat there though. Would be amazing if Europe's biggest council estate went Blue
Some of the specific choices I quoted were incorrect - mistakenly went through a list of projections rather than 2015 results, so apologies for that - but the general point holds.
If Ukip falls apart then, taking into account the significant expected national swing from Lab to Con, I regard Dagenham as eminently winnable for the Conservatives. Under such circumstances, it's simply a matter of how the Ukip vote breaks down: how many are ex-Tory voters willing to defect straight back, how many dyed-in-the-wool Tory haters who would rather just stay at home, and how many might be ex-Labour voters, for whom supporting Ukip turns out to have been a gateway drug into voting Conservative?
Certainly if there are enough of the third group about then this could cause grave long-term damage to Labour's electability, lowering its potential ceiling of support in future elections, and bring a great many previously rock-solid Labour seats within range for Conservative candidates.
1) Half of the kippers will vote for the Conservatives. 2) One in eight Labour supporters will abstain. 3) One in eight Labour supporters will vote Conservative.
I think the Conservatives will take it quite comfortably.
Labour MP Helen Goodman: election is not about changing government, it's about stopping the Tories winning such a big majority that they prevent all dissent.
Translation: Oh feck, I might lose my seat - send resources to Bish, and ignore those seats that will drop on a smaller swing.
1) Half of the kippers will vote for the Conservatives. 2) One in eight Labour supporters will abstain. 3) One in eight Labour supporters will vote Conservative.
I think the Conservatives will take it quite comfortably.
Agree. It's the sort of Labour seat where Corbyn will go down particularly badly IMO.
PaddyPower's 2/5 against UKIP winning a seat looks decent value. Farage seemed the most serious contender - not sure which other is at risk, even for Labour.
Been thinking a little about the possibility that the Ukip vote may finally be collapsing, and - just maybe - going over to the Conservatives wholesale.
If something seems too good to be true then it probably is. However... if the Tory and Ukip votes were to coalesce behind a single candidate, then any Labour seat where the combined Right vote in 2015 was within 10% of that of the Labour incumbent would, presumably, be under serious threat.
This includes some of Labour's safest seats. Scandal-plagued Rotherham, and Barnsley East where Corbyn-sceptic Michael Dugher is rumoured to be considering standing down, would be amongst the seats rendered vulnerable. Dan Jarvis (Barnsley Central) could also come under threat under such circumstances.
Anyone who thinks there's a reasonable chance of the Ukip vote collapsing, and of most of it migrating over to support Mrs May, might wish to consider whether some very unlikely Tory gains might be possible. Perhaps not - BUT... look what happened last time in Scotland.
I backed Labour in Dagenham at 1/2, but that seat is under threat according to your logic, which I can understand
I think Lab have every council seat there though. Would be amazing if Europe's biggest council estate went Blue
Some of the specific choices I quoted were incorrect - mistakenly went through a list of projections rather than 2015 results, so apologies for that - but the general point holds.
If Ukip falls apart then, taking into account the significant expected national swing from Lab to Con, I regard Dagenham as eminently winnable for the Conservatives. Under such circumstances, it's simply a matter of how the Ukip vote breaks down: how many are ex-Tory voters willing to defect straight back, how many dyed-in-the-wool Tory haters who would rather just stay at home, and how many might be ex-Labour voters, for whom supporting Ukip turns out to have been a gateway drug into voting Conservative?
Certainly if there are enough of the third group about then this could cause grave long-term damage to Labour's electability, lowering its potential ceiling of support in future elections, and bring a great many previously rock-solid Labour seats within range for Conservative candidates.
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
PaddyPower's 2/5 against UKIP winning a seat looks decent value. Farage seemed the most serious contender - not sure which other is at risk, even for Labour.
Lots of seats at risk for Labour, but none of them UKIP.
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
PaddyPower's 2/5 against UKIP winning a seat looks decent value. Farage seemed the most serious contender - not sure which other is at risk, even for Labour.
I'd be interested for @Lucian_Fletcher's take on NI. Watching the politicians there blaming the Conservatives for stopping them reaching a power sharing agreement by calling a GE is pretty unedifying and makes me think again that it's little more than pretend normality.
More interesting was the SDLPs pretty unconvincing denials of some sort of arrangement with SF - masked not as a sectarian move but as an anti-Brexit alliance. Is that likely to happen?
That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.
They're reporting independent research:
More than half a million Scottish jobs – around one in four – depend on Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK, new research published today reveals. That is more than four times as many jobs supported by EU trade.
The figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute show:
around 530,000 jobs in Scotland (nearly one in four of all jobs) are supported by demand for Scottish goods and services from the rest of the UK;
more than 175,000 jobs in Scotland are supported by export demand from the rest of the world; and
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
1) Half of the kippers will vote for the Conservatives. 2) One in eight Labour supporters will abstain. 3) One in eight Labour supporters will vote Conservative.
I think the Conservatives will take it quite comfortably.
Seems not unreasonable.
Context: Dagenham & Rainham is number 84 on an overall Conservative target seat list, based on 2015 results, and the Tories need an 8.5% swing to capture it. It is number 57 on the Labour defence list.
Labour now has 48 days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and propped up by Scottish Nationalism, is preferable to that of Theresa May.
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
Bollox, it si all made up junk , no matter who cites it. A pure guess by some overpaid wankers who are wrong 99% of the time. Why would would SNP quoting it change my opinion , I am not some numpty party follower, unlike you and Carlotta I am an independent intelligent thinking person. Keep baaing sheeple.
Apologies if already posted but the Unite leadership election is on a knife edge apparently (according to BBC) – McCluskey originally forecast to win easily. Even if McCluskey does scrape home, could it weaken his support for Corbyn if membership is swinging Anti-Corbyn? If Coyne wins...
You know Unite has now suspended his opponent?
Yes, but it doesn't affect the vote. The suspension is in lieu of his being investigated for inflammatory comments material about... McCluskey. He's not been found guilty of anything.
PaddyPower's 2/5 against UKIP winning a seat looks decent value. Farage seemed the most serious contender - not sure which other is at risk, even for Labour.
They might be in with a shout in Hartlepool.
I think there is a seat where they shouldn't be as big as 5/2
Comments
Errors
Betfair makes every effort to ensure that it does not make any errors when accepting bets.
However, if as a result of technical or system problems or human error, a bet is accepted that is at odds (which includes handicap provisions or similar) and/or is on terms that are either:
materially different from those available in the general betting market at the time the bet was made; or
clearly incorrect given the chance of the event occurring at the time the bet was made including, in either case, because the bet was placed after the start of an event, because the market was not displaying or reflecting in-play status, or because of any other reason, then all bets will stand HOWEVER Betfair will settle winning bets at the ‘correct price’.
The ‘correct price’ will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably).
Voiding if the situation changes may be fair enough (as per my cheeky Not To Be Classified bets on drivers not actually taking part in a given race), but if they've just priced it wrong that's their problem.
Punters don't get to bet, then decide they don't want to risk their money any more. Unless the event itself changes, bookies and exchanges should honour bets.
Mind you I've never been able to bet on Redwood holding his seat at 60-1.
"If we bugger up the odds we get to change them", it sounds like.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
http://www.strath.ac.uk/business/economics/fraserofallanderinstitute/
They are clearly putting these out way too quickly.
Come on Betfair, I want my £305!
It's not on to simply change the odds and keep the stake money. Even voiding is better than that (because then you have a choice to adopt the new odds or not).
The bad news is that, so far, they have only two up.
The worse news is that those two are Maidenhead, and Macclesfield, which are not the most compelling of contests!
just maybe - going over to the Conservatives wholesale.
If something seems too good to be true then it probably is. However... if the Tory and Ukip votes were to coalesce behind a single candidate, then any Labour seat where the combined Right vote in 2015 was within 10% of that of the Labour incumbent would, presumably, be under serious threat.
Anyone who thinks there's a reasonable chance of the Ukip vote collapsing, and of most of it migrating over to support Mrs May, might wish to consider whether some very unlikely Tory gains might be possible. Perhaps not - BUT... look what happened last time in Scotland.
But I think we can beat that.
I think Lab have every council seat there though. Would be amazing if Europe's biggest council estate went Blue
I think they will void some on the basis of obvious error. The odds were inverted so you could get Tories at 100-1 in Surrey Heath and 60-1 in Wokingham, rather than 1-100 and 1-60. The odds on other candidates reflected this - they were all at long odds too as you'd have expected had the blues been correctly priced as overwhelming favourites.
Richmond Park, I'm not sure about. It wasn't obviously inverted odds in that case - seems to have been priced based on 2015 result, which ignores important subsequent information, but isn't obviously crazy in the same way. Fingers crossed!
European parliament president Antonio Tajani said EU departure process could easily be reversed if there is change of UK government
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/843079583947767808
your cap and go.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855110750901342209
1) Half of the kippers will vote for the Conservatives.
2) One in eight Labour supporters will abstain.
3) One in eight Labour supporters will vote Conservative.
I think the Conservatives will take it quite comfortably.
I knew it was too much to hope I might actually have a bigger stake than Mr. Pulpstar on a probably winning long odds bet.
If I hadn't seen such riches, I could live with being poor...
They need to pay more attention. We would be changing from Tory Brexit to Corbyn Brexit. Whilst the inmates are in charge of the asylum, do not expect too much change
“If the UK, after the election, wants to withdraw [Article 50], then the procedure is very clear,” he said in an interview. “If the UK wanted to stay, everybody would be in favour. I would be very happy.”
Very clear my arse.
If Ukip falls apart then, taking into account the significant expected national swing from Lab to Con, I regard Dagenham as eminently winnable for the Conservatives. Under such circumstances, it's simply a matter of how the Ukip vote breaks down: how many are ex-Tory voters willing to defect straight back, how many dyed-in-the-wool Tory haters who would rather just stay at home, and how many might be ex-Labour voters, for whom supporting Ukip turns out to have been a gateway drug into voting Conservative?
Certainly if there are enough of the third group about then this could cause grave long-term damage to Labour's electability, lowering its potential ceiling of support in future elections, and bring a great many previously rock-solid Labour seats within range for Conservative candidates.
From the man who forecast the SNP landslide.
Are you listening Labour ?
I like your thinking. Clearly, taking a small financial hit for goodwill is the sensible course of action.
Surely that should be unbackable.
Maybe secret messages should be the way to tell one another of unexpectedly long odds bets.
"The owl flies south, but fears no rain. In old London town, he hoots alone."
More interesting was the SDLPs pretty unconvincing denials of some sort of arrangement with SF - masked not as a sectarian move but as an anti-Brexit alliance. Is that likely to happen?
Context: Dagenham & Rainham is number 84 on an overall Conservative target seat list, based on 2015 results, and the Tories need an 8.5% swing to capture it. It is number 57 on the Labour defence list.
Labour now has 48 days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and propped up by Scottish Nationalism, is preferable to that of Theresa May.
Labour is in desperate trouble.
https://twitter.com/Number10gov/status/855109628891451392
Edit - nifty metal tipped slippers Mrs May is sporting....
Oh well
Why would would SNP quoting it change my opinion , I am not some numpty party follower, unlike you and Carlotta I am an independent intelligent thinking person. Keep baaing sheeple.
Offers wise there are comparison websites i think