That is how they waste our money , you could not make it up.
They're reporting independent research:
More than half a million Scottish jobs – around one in four – depend on Scotland’s trade with the rest of the UK, new research published today reveals. That is more than four times as many jobs supported by EU trade.
The figures from the Fraser of Allander Institute show:
around 530,000 jobs in Scotland (nearly one in four of all jobs) are supported by demand for Scottish goods and services from the rest of the UK;
more than 175,000 jobs in Scotland are supported by export demand from the rest of the world; and
around 125,000 jobs in Scotland supported by export demand from the rest of the EU.
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
That would not have got her very far. A year later with Corbyn gone Labour could have tabled its own Confidence Vote and challenged her to then call an election. What is puzzling is why Labour has gone along with an election at a time of May's choosing when there was a much more attractive option available to them.
As far as UKIP are concerned, I think it's probably a case of Hartlepool or nothing.
Why would anyone vote UKIP there when even the monkey is backing the Tories this time?
They're not favourites to win for sure, but it's the only seat where their chances are greater than zero IMO. Local election results have been much better than elsewhere for the party.
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
1) Half of the kippers will vote for the Conservatives. 2) One in eight Labour supporters will abstain. 3) One in eight Labour supporters will vote Conservative.
I think the Conservatives will take it quite comfortably.
Seems not unreasonable.
Context: Dagenham & Rainham is number 84 on an overall Conservative target seat list, based on 2015 results, and the Tories need an 8.5% swing to capture it. It is number 57 on the Labour defence list.
Labour now has 48 days left to convince the voters of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and propped up by Scottish Nationalism, is preferable to that of Theresa May.
Labour is in desperate trouble.
Labour needs to convince no such thing. Everyone knows Labour is going to lose and the Tories are going to win bigly.
On the doorstep to an ex-Labour voter: "Do you want the Tories to have a massive majority so that they can do whatever they like, e.g. , privatise the NHS. "
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
Which is the best betting company for a political betting newbie ? Best 'free bet' offers etc.
Generally speaking betfair have the best odds i think. Offers wise there are comparison websites i think
I've been looking into this as well. Bet365 have the best sign-up (but odds seem poor, although I haven't done any deep analysis!). From years of lurking on PB, Betfair seem the site for those 'in the know'...
Not sure why Betfair Sportsbook are putting so many safe Tory seats on their constituency betting list, and not including places like Derby South, Bury South, Bristol East, etc. Does anyone really want to bet on Aldershot or Brentwood & Ongar?
The Fraser of Allander Institute is Scotland's leading independent economic research institute.
Over the last 40 years, the Fraser has developed an unrivalled knowledge and understanding of the Scottish economy and is Scotland's expert authority on economic policy issues.
The Fraser is also widely regarded as a leading provider of forecasting, appraisal and economic consultancy services with a diverse client base from across the public, private and third sectors.
Not sure why Betfair Sportsbook are putting so many safe Tory seats on their constituency betting list, and not including places like Derby South, Bury South, Bristol East, etc. Does anyone really want to bet on Aldershot or Brentwood & Ongar?
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority. Corbyn is a fool.
Evening. God did I choose the wrong week to be on customer site. On topic, I'm sure @Shadsy will be over the moon to take their money, and probably won't be cutting the odds too much either.
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority.
I think they could have too, and dared May to go the no confidence route - that the voted for it, nullifies many of the criticism however, and it was still lawful. Less about the spirit of the law, admittedly.
Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.
GE2015: Con+Ukip+DUP = absolute majority of all votes cast; Con+Ukip = 55% of all votes cast in England. And that was before the whole Corbyn thing got started.
If Ukip collapses *AND* May can collect the bulk of their votes then Labour have completely had it.
Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.
GE2015: Con+Ukip+DUP = absolute majority of all votes cast; Con+Ukip = 55% of all vpotes cast in England. And that was before the whole Corbyn thing got started.
If Ukip collapses *AND* May can collect the bulk of their votes then Labour have completely had it.
We don't even know how many UKIP candidates will stand. They've struggled to find people for the local elections.
Lib Dems 10-29 being backable for decent profit (and you can add 10 either side and still make money) still seems like the non-palpable bet of the election so far.
if Peter from Putney is about.. wrt my comment yesterday, try listening to Radio 5 live in the morning, and see how long it is before you cannot bear it any more.
Met a Labour staffer in London this evening. Said she hopes Scotland elects Tory MPs to keep the SNP out, coz Labour's stuffed w/o Scotland.
It has a certain fascinating, although obviously-flawed, logic.
I hope someone is filing all these quotes for publication in bound form. Stocking-stuffer material ...
There's no logic to it at all. If Labour can't claw its way back in Scotland - and right now, Scottish Labour looks like it's already halfway in the dustbin of history - then there is no conceivable way in which Scotland could ever be an asset to the party again.
If it remains completely dominated by the SNP, then the Lab/Nat pact threat can be deployed against Labour in every future election it contests, up until the point at which Labour is so weak that any realistic threat of it becoming a party of Government is removed.
If, on the other hand, the Tories make any kind of a Westminster comeback in Scotland, then their Commons majority is bolstered by x-number of seats *AND* the Lab/Nat pact can still be weaponised regardless.
The best result in Scotland for Labour in England would be a vote for independence.
Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.
That occurred to me today, too
A result of
Con: 50 Lab: 23 Lib: 11 UKIP: 5 Green: 5
when Baxtered, produces
Tories: 429 seats Labour: 124 Others nowhere
And a majority of 218
But I suspect the calculus stops working with such extreme results, the same way thermometers stop working at 400C or whatever
LDs will get 15%, minimum.
And Labour 20% maximum.
Labour will get 25%.
Their vote was pretty inefficient in 2015 and I think a lot of the areas where they'll get truly hammered are where they are notionally safer on paper.
Mr. 195, May seems to have perfected the art of masterly inactivity. Her opponents, from the leadership contest to today, seem intent on defeating themselves.
Mr. T, that sort of result could happen. Labour would be too weak to win, too strong to die.
Mr. Alistair, constant second guessing is my usual F1 modus operandi (weirdly excepting the first race of this season, when I had to restrain myself and only offer three tips).
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority. Corbyn is a fool.
It is almost as if he WANTS to destroy Labour. I'm perfectly serious. Does he harbour some inner hatred of his own party, all the years he voted against them, Tony Blair, the Iraq war, etc?
The bollocks over a 2nd referendum this morning was classic. It's the one way he could have transformed the electoral narrative. The only possible way. Just leave open the tiny possibilty of a second vote, or a parliamentary veto on "the deal", and suddenly millions of Remoaners might have been tempted his way.
So what does he do? Raises the possibility - but then completely rules it out four hours later.
These aren't the actions of an imbecile. They are the actions of someone actively trying to sabotage Labour's chances, or so it seems to me.
Sean, there is now a trend for anti-politicians, like Trump.
Corbyn is simply NOT A POLITICIAN meaning he cannot think on his feet. He is not particularly intelligent.
All his life, he has spoken to small audiences who accepted every word he said. When he became the accidental leader , he blinked at the headlights.
European parliament president Antonio Tajani said EU departure process could easily be reversed if there is change of UK government
In accordance with international convention as regards foreign interference in a nation's election process, Tajani should keep his big mouth out of our affairs.
I don't think being prepared would have made much difference. Nonetheless, there are still MPs who have a local reputation built up over many years. They will be difficult to dislodge.
Farage not standing must surely encourage any remaining UKIP supporters to back Con.
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
UKIP could be down to 5% in the polls soon, Tories over 50%.
That occurred to me today, too
A result of
Con: 50 Lab: 23 Lib: 11 UKIP: 5 Green: 5
when Baxtered, produces
Tories: 429 seats Labour: 124 Others nowhere
And a majority of 218
But I suspect the calculus stops working with such extreme results, the same way thermometers stop working at 400C or whatever
LDs will get 15%, minimum.
And Labour 20% maximum.
Labour will get 25%.
Polls already say no, one day in.
I think we need to wait and see how the polls pan out.
On the one hand...
* polls have a tendency to overestimate Labour support * polling 2 months out from the GE has consistently overestimated Labour's actual vote on each of the last six occasions
On the other hand...
* Labour has a lot of residual support.
I find it hard to believe that Labour will slip much below 25%, but then again I dislike Labour strongly and am a natural pessimist.
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority. Corbyn is a fool.
It is
So what does he do? Raises the possibility - but then completely rules it out four hours later.
These aren't the actions of an imbecile. They are the actions of someone actively trying to sabotage Labour's chances, or so it seems to me.
Sean, there is now a trend of anti-politician, like Trump.
Corbyn is simply NOT A POLITICIAN meaning he cannot think on his feet. He is not particularly intelligent.
All his life, he has spoken to small audiences who accepted every word he said. When he became the accidental leader , he blinked at the headlights.
I know he's dim, but he is surrounded by quite smart people. e.g. Seamus Milne and McDonnell are sinister but they're not cretins. So how are they fucking this up so momentously?
It's odd. Genuinely odd.
Either they are, actually, fools, or we all are for not seeing the brilliance. Scary thought.
I would suggest a visit to Dagenham might be sensible, en route to withdrawing your life savings from the bank? If it goes Tory, the world really has changed.
We are rather in the midst of an age of seismic political events right now. Besides, Jon Cruddas beat the Tory candidate in Dagenham & Rainham in 2010 by just 2,500 votes - and I would hazard a guess that Jeremy Corbyn is a somewhat less attractive option as a future PM for the people of said constituency than Gordon Brown was.
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
Dagenham and Rainham does look a possibility with 54.2% Con/UKIP.
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
Rod Crosby has made interesting comments on UKPR. He too finds it odd that Corbyn went along with the Dissolution motion,and he is not convinced that May would have tabled a No Confidence Vote had that motion failed to gain 434 votes. He is very confident that the No Confidence Vote would have forced May to resign and that Corbyn would have been asked to form a Government.He cites various precedents - and I agree with him. Effectively Corbyn might have been PM by this weekend - so why did he not go down that avenue? Pure imbecility?
I don't see why May would need to no confidence herself. Had Corbyn's Labour failed to accept the challenge of going to the nation they'd have been humiliated further and May could just continue governing without a ballot, with chicken noises every time a Labour MP ever spoke up again for the rest of Parliament until they accepted an election.
This humiliation bullshit is for the birds. Do you think Labour would be any less humiliated in the election?
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
The law was abided by - it provided an avenue for the calling of an early election.
Labour could have easily voted against. The motion would not have received 2/3rds majority. Corbyn is a fool.
It is
So what does he do? Raises the possibility - but then completely rules it out four hours later.
These aren't the actions of an imbecile. They are the actions of someone actively trying to sabotage Labour's chances, or so it seems to me.
Sean, there is now a trend of anti-politician, like Trump.
Corbyn is simply NOT A POLITICIAN meaning he cannot think on his feet. He is not particularly intelligent.
All his life, he has spoken to small audiences who accepted every word he said. When he became the accidental leader , he blinked at the headlights.
I know he's dim, but he is surrounded by quite smart people. e.g. Seamus Milne and McDonnell are sinister but they're not cretins. So how are they fucking this up so momentously?
It's odd. Genuinely odd.
Either they are, actually, fools, or we all are for not seeing the brilliance. Scary thought.
When the polls turn against them (no, I don't think this has happened yet), then we'll see what they're made of and it won't be pretty.
Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue? The Conservatives have a chance to capture both the Leave Labour and the Ukip vote.
Theresa May's bold pitch for a Brexit mandate will likely win significant support in Wales. Almost the entire Welsh political establishment supported Remain here last year. But the Welsh people voted Leave, and the polling evidence suggests that they have not changed their mind. A Brexit-focused campaign could be particularly problematic for Labour in its most iconic Welsh bastions: all of the south Wales valleys voted Leave, many by substantial margins.
The BAME population of Dagenham has never been so high, and the MP is the brains behind Blue Labour
The combined Ukip and Tory vote in Dagenham is 5,500 greater than the Labour vote, with insignificant support for the also-rans. It's not at all safe, regardless of the % of non-white voters.
A Macron victory would be much the best outcome among the available choices, not just for France but for the EU. And that means, though Theresa May will be loth to admit it, a Macron win would ultimately be good for Britain too. Negotiating with Macron over the next two years will not be easy, because he understandably shares the same priority as Germany and most of the EU27 that the union must be defended and made stronger. On every other count, though, he would be by far the least worst of the options.
If I find the time i will be breaking out the Simple Moronic Analysis Prediction for Scotland (SMAPS) system again.
It is the startlingly accurate, "what if all Indy voters vote for the SNP" approach to Scottish elections. This time I'll add differential turnout variables to it.
Comments
It requires the Ukip vote to break the right way, of course, but Labour is beatable in this seat.
On the doorstep to an ex-Labour voter: "Do you want the Tories to have a massive majority so that they can do whatever they like, e.g. , privatise the NHS. "
Adam Ramsay @AdamRamsay
Met a Labour staffer in London this evening. Said she hopes Scotland elects Tory MPs to keep the SNP out, coz Labour's stuffed w/o Scotland.
The line should have been: we will abide by the law of the land.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/nicola-sturgeon-accused-plotting-make-jeremy-corbyn-pm-return/
Signed. Obama +++
It's as if he is unofficially endorsing her.
It is a bit tricky running multiple accounts, but today I had a windfall win. I had a payout on a 2017 election that I had forgotten about.
Should be packing for this weekend's Oxford Book Fair!
So you should use that to check on offers and compare odds.
I hope someone is filing all these quotes for publication in bound form. Stocking-stuffer material ...
Labour could conceivably get that low. If they did, the Lib Dems would do quite well in share of the vote (which is irrelevant).
If Ukip collapses *AND* May can collect the bulk of their votes then Labour have completely had it.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/5vzlbpfrb4/QueenMaryResults_London_March2017_2W.pdf
Also PM after the election: Theresa May at 1.14 and Con Majority at 1.17, over a grand available on each.
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/855122027145031681
If it remains completely dominated by the SNP, then the Lab/Nat pact threat can be deployed against Labour in every future election it contests, up until the point at which Labour is so weak that any realistic threat of it becoming a party of Government is removed.
If, on the other hand, the Tories make any kind of a Westminster comeback in Scotland, then their Commons majority is bolstered by x-number of seats *AND* the Lab/Nat pact can still be weaponised regardless.
The best result in Scotland for Labour in England would be a vote for independence.
Mr. T, that sort of result could happen. Labour would be too weak to win, too strong to die.
Mr. Alistair, constant second guessing is my usual F1 modus operandi (weirdly excepting the first race of this season, when I had to restrain myself and only offer three tips).
Corbyn is simply NOT A POLITICIAN meaning he cannot think on his feet. He is not particularly intelligent.
All his life, he has spoken to small audiences who accepted every word he said. When he became the accidental leader , he blinked at the headlights.
https://twitter.com/isabelhardman/status/855118564906463232
On the one hand...
* polls have a tendency to overestimate Labour support
* polling 2 months out from the GE has consistently overestimated Labour's actual vote on each of the last six occasions
On the other hand...
* Labour has a lot of residual support.
I find it hard to believe that Labour will slip much below 25%, but then again I dislike Labour strongly and am a natural pessimist.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11533602/Guide-to-tactical-voting-against-the-SNP-published.html
Eltham (51.4 Con+UKIP) looks possible as well.
Westminster N and Erith and Thamesmead aren't unthinkable either. Con/UKIP within 5 of Labour.
If UKIP consolidate behind the Tories and Corbyn is a vote killer then both are feasible.
Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue?
The Conservatives have a chance to capture both the Leave Labour and the Ukip vote.
Theresa May's bold pitch for a Brexit mandate will likely win significant support in Wales. Almost the entire Welsh political establishment supported Remain here last year. But the Welsh people voted Leave, and the polling evidence suggests that they have not changed their mind. A Brexit-focused campaign could be particularly problematic for Labour in its most iconic Welsh bastions: all of the south Wales valleys voted Leave, many by substantial margins.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/could-2017-general-election-turn-wales-blue
12 Labour
4 Conservatives
1 Lib Dem
1 Independent
not standing again.
Edit corrected as the site did not include Dugher
The First Crusade springs to mind.
Should have covered 1 to 2 % stronger than i did.
Still it is better than the bank
A Macron victory would be much the best outcome among the available choices, not just for France but for the EU. And that means, though Theresa May will be loth to admit it, a Macron win would ultimately be good for Britain too. Negotiating with Macron over the next two years will not be easy, because he understandably shares the same priority as Germany and most of the EU27 that the union must be defended and made stronger. On every other count, though, he would be by far the least worst of the options.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/20/election-britain-france-emmanuel-macron-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw
Which one Candidate has May met, Martin?
It's not impossible, but I suspect the First Crusade was him becoming leader. The current situation is more Fourth Crusade.
*sighs*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0Ba_xCg96E
It is the startlingly accurate, "what if all Indy voters vote for the SNP" approach to Scottish elections. This time I'll add differential turnout variables to it.