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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Momentum’s cunning plan to change the narrative about LAB’s ch

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  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    Oh FFS not another attack in France.

    It's terrifying that so many attacks go unfoiled in France. What is lacking in the security apparatus?
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Remain is dead. This new election will see the final death rattles of a corpse that has been twitching on the slab since last June. Around the country there are voters anxious to know whether their democratic right, and the decision they made last year to leave the EU, might be stolen from them by politics as usual.

    There were fears that Brexit could be overturned in a shady backroom deal, or through the applications of sneaky lawyers. Voters ignored in countless elections could have been forgiven for wondering if the forces of bureaucracy would find a way to stop Britain freeing itself from the EU. Theresa May has ensured that this will not happen, and that the result will be honoured. This general election is the closest Remainers will ever get to a second referendum on 8 June, and they are going to be bitterly disappointed by the outcome.


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/20/brexit-become-unstoppable-theresa-may-killing-remain-good/

    No flowers.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 48,149
    Get well soon CF! Park the cycle up for a bit, and take it easy. The next few weeks will supply their own entertainment.
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.

    Still, the care from the doctors and two delightful paramedics was second to none and I always feel guilty at taking up their time. A&E was reasonably quiet. I expect all the drunks and drug addicts were at work. Probably in the City.

    And I whiled away the waiting hours on here. Slightly surprised to find that commenting on a graph makes one pompous and patronising. But there you go: being attacked by @malcolmg and @roger probably counts as some sort of rite of passage on here.

    One election thought from me: I am not a particular May fan but that picture of her a couple of weekends ago acting as a marshall in a race in her constituency probably sums up her appeal. Like so many people she was doing one of the very many small, unsung, unpaid, unglamorous, unheralded acts of kindness, charity, volunteering, help, what you will, of the type which lots and lots of us do to make life better. And on Monday morning also get up and do the day job. And that, in part, is why I think she - dull and dutiful as she may be - resonates with so many.

    She is the Dorothea * of British politics. (* Middlemarch)

    Just a thought.

    One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.

    And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.

    Anyway, need to be kind to myself for a bit.

    Au revoir.


    Sorry to read of your (I hope) temporary disposition.

    Mme Alfred is a delight, once established, but can be a slow starter.

    Time away from work is time to enjoy the garden !

    Get well and be happy
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,425
    Roger said:

    Get well soon cyclefree. You're the acceptable face of Brexit so look after yourself. There aren't many others. If you're not out by election day I'll come and visit you!

    There aren't many others.

    well thanks Roger youre the acceptable face of equine fellatio
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    @Cyclefree

    Get well soon, best wishes for a speedy recovery.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,600
    Is there something wrong with Dawn Butler? It wasn't just an incoherent interview, she didn't sound all there.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    BBC: 2 police officers shot in central Paris.

    Do you have any more news?- family and I are on holiday in Paris at moment

    It is on or near the Champs Elysses, lots of Police activity. Le Flic are pretty well drilled in ther responses.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @CycleFree,

    To get well soon, relax, take care of the garden and remember that ladies should take a glass of Marsala* every morning at eleven sharp.

    *To be fair my grandmother didn't care for Marsala and substituted a pint of Guinness instead - seemed to do the trick just as well.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Best wishes @Cyclefree - get yourself right!
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Something going on in the Champs Elysees area of paris - 2 dead inc a policeman
  • Options
    ToryJim said:

    Oh FFS not another attack in France.

    It's terrifying that so many attacks go unfoiled in France. What is lacking in the security apparatus?
    It's not armed police they are lacking. Took a 10 mile walk round Paris today and saw lots of police in groups of 2 or 3 with big guns
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,396
    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.

    Still, the care from the doctors and two delightful paramedics was second to none and I always feel guilty at taking up their time. A&E was reasonably quiet. I expect all the drunks and drug addicts were at work. Probably in the City.

    And I whiled away the waiting hours on here. Slightly surprised to find that commenting on a graph makes one pompous and patronising. But there you go: being attacked by @malcolmg and @roger probably counts as some sort of rite of passage on here.

    One election thought from me: I am not a particular May fan but that picture of her a couple of weekends ago acting as a marshall in a race in her constituency probably sums up her appeal. Like so many people she was doing one of the very many small, unsung, unpaid, unglamorous, unheralded acts of kindness, charity, volunteering, help, what you will, of the type which lots and lots of us do to make life better. And on Monday morning also get up and do the day job. And that, in part, is why I think she - dull and dutiful as she may be - resonates with so many.

    She is the Dorothea * of British politics. (* Middlemarch)

    Just a thought.

    One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.

    And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.

    Anyway, need to be kind to myself for a bit.

    Au revoir.

    Get well soon Cyclefree. There is a tremendous amount of goodwill towards you on here from all sides of the various debates. Hope that helps speed your recovery.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,293
    SeanT said:

    One French cop dead. Latest. Apparently.

    I've never seen more police on the street than in the last week. It took literally hours to get through the checks at the airport. They must have been expecting something. It was all very un-French until the queue became too large and they suddenly let dozens of people through without checks.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,783
    @Cyclefree: were you in the Royal Free? I was there in October, first in A&E where they missed the multiple fractures in my hand and only tied up my finger, then in November when they opened me up to pin my hand back together. A&E - 1/10, Hand Clinic - 10/10.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Oh and on Sky, lifelong Labour lovies despairing of quality of Labour shadow cabinet.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Get well soon @Cyclefree
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    Get well soon cyclefree. You're the acceptable face of Brexit so look after yourself. There aren't many others. If you're not out by election day I'll come and visit you!

    Cyclefree has always been a bit coy about which way she voted last June. She is certainly a critic of the EU, but not a fanatic unwilling to be convinced.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    welshowl said:

    New Statesman:

    Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue?
    The Conservatives have a chance to capture both the Leave Labour and the Ukip vote.

    Theresa May's bold pitch for a Brexit mandate will likely win significant support in Wales. Almost the entire Welsh political establishment supported Remain here last year. But the Welsh people voted Leave, and the polling evidence suggests that they have not changed their mind. A Brexit-focused campaign could be particularly problematic for Labour in its most iconic Welsh bastions: all of the south Wales valleys voted Leave, many by substantial margins.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/could-2017-general-election-turn-wales-blue

    I don't think the Valleys seats will ever go blue. They might have gone purple.

    Probably most of the Valleys Labour MPs will hang on this time .,.. their percentage vote reduced yet again. They are waiting for Plaid to finally do what the SNP have already done to SLAB.

    The Tories will take the 4 Welsh NE marginals & Bridgend.

    But, then its the Newport & Cardiff seats that will come in to play rather than the Valleys seats.



    Cardiff West, Cardiff South and Penarth, Bridgend, and the two Newports all have biggish Kipper votes to squeeze that are more than or close to the Labour majorities, add in some swing given recent national polls ( which I still can't quite believe !) and there's marginals where none have existed for decades if ever (Cardiff West and Newport West and Bridgend were Tory in 83. Cardiff South is Callaghan's old seat). Bridgend is the most likely ( it includes posher Porthcawl note), the others much less so.

    Cardiff Central is a straight Lab Lib fight. Lab won it last time with a 4-5k majority. It's the remainiest seat (70%) in the remainiest city (60%) in Wales. Could be tight but suspect Lab might scrape it as they did in the Assembly election last year.

    If it really is really really bad for Labour a real long shot is Torfaen (i.e. Pontypool and Cwmbran). It's a Valleys seat, but is the eastern most valley bordering the Newports and safe Tory Monmouth. Labour vote not as monolithic as further west (Cwmbran is a new town) Tories second and UKIP just behind with a big chunky vote. If that collapsed....... It would truly be end of days for Labour if they lost Torfaen but hey that it's even on the far edge of any remote possibility is mad.
    I agree with all that.

    Probably (if Leanne stands) the Rhondda will fall. And I suspect Leanne standing might finally cause Llanelli to tip, as well. But, Leanne may bottle it.

    Pontypridd is the most likely Valley seat to fall, if Labour are losing Torfaen.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    ToryJim said:

    Oh FFS not another attack in France.

    It's terrifying that so many attacks go unfoiled in France. What is lacking in the security apparatus?
    It's not armed police they are lacking. Took a 10 mile walk round Paris today and saw lots of police in groups of 2 or 3 with big guns
    They are effectively in a low level insurrection
  • Options

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    BBC: 2 police officers shot in central Paris.

    Do you have any more news?- family and I are on holiday in Paris at moment

    It is on or near the Champs Elysses, lots of Police activity. Le Flic are pretty well drilled in ther responses.
    Wow, very nearly went for a pizza on champs elysses tonight but went to the restaurants near Eiffel Tower instead
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Cyclefree - take time and get well soon.

    I have suffered from those pains in the past and they are scary and sometimes excruciating.

    Best wishes
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.

    [snip] Just a thought.

    One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.

    And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.

    Anyway, need to be kind to myself for a bit.

    Au revoir.

    Get well soon Cyclefree. There is a tremendous amount of goodwill towards you on here from all sides of the various debates. Hope that helps speed your recovery.
    We put Sir, I’ll second that. – get well soon Ms Cyclefree.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Wishing you the best of health @Cyclefree
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,392


    I agree with all that.

    Probably (if Leanne stands) the Rhondda will fall. And I suspect Leanne standing might finally cause Llanelli to tip, as well. But, Leanne may bottle it.

    Pontypridd is the most likely Valley seat to fall, if Labour are losing Torfaen.

    The North East looks vulnerable though - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Wrexham are all seats the Tories have targeted for years. That said, they've never been terribly good at actually campaigning in them.

    Ynys Mon is another funny one. It should be a certainty for PC on these figures but when was the last time a sitting MP stood and lost there?
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    welshowl said:

    New Statesman:

    Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue?
    The Conservatives have a chance to capture both the Leave Labour and the Ukip vote.

    Theresa May's bold pitch for a Brexit mandate will likely win significant support in Wales. Almost the entire Welsh political establishment supported Remain here last year. But the Welsh people voted Leave, and the polling evidence suggests that they have not changed their mind. A Brexit-focused campaign could be particularly problematic for Labour in its most iconic Welsh bastions: all of the south Wales valleys voted Leave, many by substantial margins.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/could-2017-general-election-turn-wales-blue

    I don't think the Valleys seats will ever go blue. They might have gone purple.

    Probably most of the Valleys Labour MPs will hang on this time .,.. their percentage vote reduced yet again. They are waiting for Plaid to finally do what the SNP have already done to SLAB.

    The Tories will take the 4 Welsh NE marginals & Bridgend.

    But, then its the Newport & Cardiff seats that will come in to play rather than the Valleys seats.



    Cardiff West, Cardiff South and Penarth, Bridgend, and the two Newports all have biggish Kipper votes to squeeze that are more than or close to the Labour majorities, add in some swing given recent national polls ( which I still can't quite believe !) and there's marginals where none have existed for decades if ever (Cardiff West and Newport West and Bridgend were Tory in 83. Cardiff South is Callaghan's old seat). Bridgend is the most likely ( it includes posher Porthcawl note), the others much less so.

    Cardiff Central is a straight Lab Lib fight. Lab won it last time with a 4-5k majority. It's the remainiest seat (70%) in the remainiest city (60%) in Wales. Could be tight but suspect Lab might scrape it as they did in the Assembly election last year.

    If it really is really really bad for Labour a real long shot is Torfaen (i.e. Pontypool and Cwmbran). It's a Valleys seat, but is the eastern most valley bordering the Newports and safe Tory Monmouth. Labour vote not as monolithic as further west (Cwmbran is a new town) Tories second and UKIP just behind with a big chunky vote. If that collapsed....... It would truly be end of days for Labour if they lost Torfaen but hey that it's even on the far edge of any remote possibility is mad.
    Cardiff Central was Tory held until 1992.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    ydoethur said:

    SeanT said:

    FFS the guy in Paris apparently had an AK-47. In central Paris. A submachine gun.

    These policemen - does anyone know if they are shot dead or shot and wounded? BBC isn't being very informative
    BBC not being informative.... hmmm
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,392
    justin124 said:

    welshowl said:

    New Statesman:

    Could the 2017 general election turn Wales blue?
    The Conservatives have a chance to capture both the Leave Labour and the Ukip vote.

    Theresa May's bold pitch for a Brexit mandate will likely win significant support in Wales. Almost the entire Welsh political establishment supported Remain here last year. But the Welsh people voted Leave, and the polling evidence suggests that they have not changed their mind. A Brexit-focused campaign could be particularly problematic for Labour in its most iconic Welsh bastions: all of the south Wales valleys voted Leave, many by substantial margins.


    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/could-2017-general-election-turn-wales-blue

    I don't think the Valleys seats will ever go blue. They might have gone purple.

    Probably most of the Valleys Labour MPs will hang on this time .,.. their percentage vote reduced yet again. They are waiting for Plaid to finally do what the SNP have already done to SLAB.

    The Tories will take the 4 Welsh NE marginals & Bridgend.

    But, then its the Newport & Cardiff seats that will come in to play rather than the Valleys seats.



    Cardiff West, Cardiff South and Penarth, Bridgend, and the two Newports all have biggish Kipper votes to squeeze that are more than or close to the Labour majorities, add in some swing given recent national polls ( which I still can't quite believe !) and there's marginals where none have existed for decades if ever (Cardiff West and Newport West and Bridgend were Tory in 83. Cardiff South is Callaghan's old seat). Bridgend is the most likely ( it includes posher Porthcawl note), the others much less so.

    Cardiff Central is a straight Lab Lib fight. Lab won it last time with a 4-5k majority. It's the remainiest seat (70%) in the remainiest city (60%) in Wales. Could be tight but suspect Lab might scrape it as they did in the Assembly election last year.

    If it really is really really bad for Labour a real long shot is Torfaen (i.e. Pontypool and Cwmbran). It's a Valleys seat, but is the eastern most valley bordering the Newports and safe Tory Monmouth. Labour vote not as monolithic as further west (Cwmbran is a new town) Tories second and UKIP just behind with a big chunky vote. If that collapsed....... It would truly be end of days for Labour if they lost Torfaen but hey that it's even on the far edge of any remote possibility is mad.
    Cardiff Central was Tory held until 1992.
    There's been massive demographic change since. Very much a student seat now with the Tory voters moving further out.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,600
    SeanT said:

    glw said:

    Is there something wrong with Dawn Butler? It wasn't just an incoherent interview, she didn't sound all there.

    I think she is just a bit average, and massively over-promoted, and hugely inexperienced.
    Sounded worse than that to me, she was speaking very slowly and seemed to struggle to form sentences.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,105

    ToryJim said:

    Oh FFS not another attack in France.

    It's terrifying that so many attacks go unfoiled in France. What is lacking in the security apparatus?
    It's not armed police they are lacking. Took a 10 mile walk round Paris today and saw lots of police in groups of 2 or 3 with big guns
    Intelligence failures?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,783
    glw said:

    SeanT said:

    glw said:

    Is there something wrong with Dawn Butler? It wasn't just an incoherent interview, she didn't sound all there.

    I think she is just a bit average, and massively over-promoted, and hugely inexperienced.
    Sounded worse than that to me, she was speaking very slowly and seemed to struggle to form sentences.
    She was probably just high.

    (JOKE.)
  • Options
    Ishmael_Z said:

    MikeL said:

    At what point are the following cards going to be played?

    Lab defence policy (whatever it might be) / Corbyn unwilling to press the button
    Corbyn not supporting the Monarchy

    These are the two issues which could go Lab support heading seriously further downwards.

    Presumably May and the media will hold these back for the campaign proper?

    Being held in reserve as dead cats for deployment as required.
    I vividly remember Neil Kinnocks speech in which he said:

    "i will die for my Country
    But i wont allow my Country to die for me"

    Whilst i didn't entirely agree with his policy I really respected his standpoint

    I simply cannot see Corbyn's answer dealing with the issue with the same conviction and resonance.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    ydoethur said:


    I agree with all that.

    Probably (if Leanne stands) the Rhondda will fall. And I suspect Leanne standing might finally cause Llanelli to tip, as well. But, Leanne may bottle it.

    Pontypridd is the most likely Valley seat to fall, if Labour are losing Torfaen.

    The North East looks vulnerable though - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Wrexham are all seats the Tories have targeted for years. That said, they've never been terribly good at actually campaigning in them.

    Ynys Mon is another funny one. It should be a certainty for PC on these figures but when was the last time a sitting MP stood and lost there?
    The last sitting MP to lose Ynys Mon was Megan Lloyd George in 1951.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411
    ToryJim said:

    Oh FFS not another attack in France.

    It's terrifying that so many attacks go unfoiled in France. What is lacking in the security apparatus?
    Little. They just face an intense threat. They have ghettos filled with embittered young Muslims. And, they are officially, the most secular country in Europe, which makes them a target for Jihadists.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018

    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.

    [snip] Just a thought.

    One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.

    And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.

    Anyway, need to be kind to myself for a bit.

    Au revoir.

    Get well soon Cyclefree. There is a tremendous amount of goodwill towards you on here from all sides of the various debates. Hope that helps speed your recovery.
    We put Sir, I’ll second that. – get well soon Ms Cyclefree.
    Thirded - get well soon @Cyclefree!
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,411

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Imagine if Corbyn is actually PM on June 9th.

    Last one out please remember the turn the lights off.
    I suppose I should bet on a Labour victory, as a form of insurance.
    Don't bet in pounds cos they will be worthless.
    11-1 on Labour winning most seats are very unattractive odds. 40-50/1, I'd be interested.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,018
    PP just converted my 20 quid on Redwood at 60/1 to 1/100....

    :-(
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,392

    ydoethur said:


    I agree with all that.

    Probably (if Leanne stands) the Rhondda will fall. And I suspect Leanne standing might finally cause Llanelli to tip, as well. But, Leanne may bottle it.

    Pontypridd is the most likely Valley seat to fall, if Labour are losing Torfaen.

    The North East looks vulnerable though - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Wrexham are all seats the Tories have targeted for years. That said, they've never been terribly good at actually campaigning in them.

    Ynys Mon is another funny one. It should be a certainty for PC on these figures but when was the last time a sitting MP stood and lost there?
    The last sitting MP to lose Ynys Mon was Megan Lloyd George in 1951.
    Thought it was a while ago. So maybe Albert Owen will hang on?

    Any news on the PC candidate?
  • Options
    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Cyclefree said:

    Off topic, I have spent the day in hospital because of chest pain. Fortunately, not a lung clot or heart attack but I will be taking some time off work to get well properly. After many years of very intensive hard work and, latterly, a lot of buggeration by senior management (of the type with which @DrFoxnsox and @ydoethur are probably sadly all too familiar) I am utterly exhausted. Someone else can catch the baddies for a bit.

    Still, the care from the doctors and two delightful paramedics was second to none and I always feel guilty at taking up their time. A&E was reasonably quiet. I expect all the drunks and drug addicts were at work. Probably in the City.

    And I whiled away the waiting hours on here. Slightly surprised to find that commenting on a graph makes one pompous and patronising. But there you go: being attacked by @malcolmg and @roger probably counts as some sort of rite of passage on here.

    One election thought from me: I am not a particular May fan but that picture of her a couple of weekends ago acting as a marshall in a race in her constituency probably sums up her appeal. Like so many people she was doing one of the very many small, unsung, unpaid, unglamorous, unheralded acts of kindness, charity, volunteering, help, what you will, of the type which lots and lots of us do to make life better. And on Monday morning also get up and do the day job. And that, in part, is why I think she - dull and dutiful as she may be - resonates with so many.

    She is the Dorothea * of British politics. (* Middlemarch)

    Just a thought.

    One small ray of happiness (for me, at least) is that my Mme Alfred Carriere rose is already blooming. It's the earliest this has ever happened, my previous record being April 23rd. There are so many buds this summer will be glorious in the garden. I hope so anyway.

    And there is Tosca at the Ulverston music festival in June to look forward to - on June 7th.

    Anyway, need to be kind to myself for a bit.

    Au revoir.

    All the best to you for a full and speedy recovery.

    Tosca - wonderful.

    Ulverston - birthplace of Stan Laurel. I believe they have a Laurel and Hardy museum there.

    Oliver Hardy was born in Harlem GA not far from me. A museum there too.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,627
    Mortimer said:

    PP just converted my 20 quid on Redwood at 60/1 to 1/100....

    :-(

    At least they converted it to something, rather than just deleted it like mine.
  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    New thread - by elections.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    @Cyclefree: get well soon.
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    To quote Rod Crosby
    'The FTPA merely removes the ‘right’ to automatic dissolution [a right that constitutional scholars agree might have been denied in certain circumstances in the past anyhow].

    If the HoC has no confidence in the govt, it must go – one way or another. Otherwise what is the point point or purpose of NC? The only way now is via resignation, adopted on numerous occasions in the [albeit dim] past.

    In the event of resignation the LOTO is called [irrespective of how few seats they may have]. They may possibly decline the offer, although they would look like an asshat if they had actually brought about the VONC themselves.

    The FTPA doesn’t touch upon these conventions, so until they’re broken, they remain. Suggesting they may be broken simply because Corbyn [/insert whatever name you hate] is a dick is just wishful thinking, and would drag the Monarchy into controversy.

    Everyone knows the rules of the game. If you don’t want Corbyn to be PM, then don’t push the buttons that convention says will make him PM…'
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:


    I agree with all that.

    Probably (if Leanne stands) the Rhondda will fall. And I suspect Leanne standing might finally cause Llanelli to tip, as well. But, Leanne may bottle it.

    Pontypridd is the most likely Valley seat to fall, if Labour are losing Torfaen.

    The North East looks vulnerable though - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Wrexham are all seats the Tories have targeted for years. That said, they've never been terribly good at actually campaigning in them.

    Ynys Mon is another funny one. It should be a certainty for PC on these figures but when was the last time a sitting MP stood and lost there?
    The last sitting MP to lose Ynys Mon was Megan Lloyd George in 1951.
    Thought it was a while ago. So maybe Albert Owen will hang on?

    Any news on the PC candidate?
    The Tories were less than 10% behind the winning candidate last time. They could win it again like they did in 1979 and 1983.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,293

    Roger said:

    Get well soon cyclefree. You're the acceptable face of Brexit so look after yourself. There aren't many others. If you're not out by election day I'll come and visit you!

    There aren't many others.

    well thanks Roger youre the acceptable face of equine fellatio
    While you can still make people laugh you're everyone's friend.

    By the way I've never tried it. Is it good or just an Irish thing?
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464


    @YbarddCwsc

    Not yet, but in future these Gwent seats could become Bristol commuter belt given the Severn Bridge tolls are halving next year and there is apparently something of a resulting house price spike near the bridges as Bristolians sniff a relative bargain.
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    After days like today - the crazed Corbyn performance, the stories of nepotism, the Unite chap getting gulaged, the Dawn Butler disaster - I am wondering whether we may see depressed turnout with mass abstentions in traditional Labour heartlands. Result: Tory vote share over 50%? Does Baxter incorporate any turnout assumptions?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,425
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Get well soon cyclefree. You're the acceptable face of Brexit so look after yourself. There aren't many others. If you're not out by election day I'll come and visit you!

    There aren't many others.

    well thanks Roger youre the acceptable face of equine fellatio
    While you can still make people laugh you're everyone's friend.

    By the way I've never tried it. Is it good or just an Irish thing?
    Equine fellatio ?

    very popular in the countryside, I must take you to Chipping Norton some day.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Guido thinks Esther McVey could be Tory candidate in Upminster where Angela Watkinson is standing down.
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    glw said:

    Is there something wrong with Dawn Butler? It wasn't just an incoherent interview, she didn't sound all there.

    The one on Radio 4 at about 5:15? It was spectacularly bad - a really poor performance from her. She was fortunate that Eddie Mair (?) allowed her to retract her defamation of Costa Coffee (a Whitbred subsidiary) regarding its tax affairs. She didn't seem to know whether she wanted to discuss Labour Party policy or not - her only soundbite was that "the system is rigged" against Labour, but seemed incapable of giving any examples or ways in which a Labour Government would rectify matters. Another seven weeks of this is going to destroy her.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cassandra said:

    After days like today - the crazed Corbyn performance, the stories of nepotism, the Unite chap getting gulaged, the Dawn Butler disaster - I am wondering whether we may see depressed turnout with mass abstentions in traditional Labour heartlands. Result: Tory vote share over 50%? Does Baxter incorporate any turnout assumptions?

    No, it's too difficult to factor turnout in.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:


    I agree with all that.

    Probably (if Leanne stands) the Rhondda will fall. And I suspect Leanne standing might finally cause Llanelli to tip, as well. But, Leanne may bottle it.

    Pontypridd is the most likely Valley seat to fall, if Labour are losing Torfaen.

    The North East looks vulnerable though - Delyn, Alyn and Deeside and Wrexham are all seats the Tories have targeted for years. That said, they've never been terribly good at actually campaigning in them.

    Ynys Mon is another funny one. It should be a certainty for PC on these figures but when was the last time a sitting MP stood and lost there?
    The last sitting MP to lose Ynys Mon was Megan Lloyd George in 1951.
    Thought it was a while ago. So maybe Albert Owen will hang on?

    Any news on the PC candidate?
    None so far.

    More likely is the Tories taking it from third than Albert Owen holding on.

    Fair play to Albert, though, he's done well to hang on for 4 elections with wafer-thin majorities of 800, 1242, 2461 and 229 respectively.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 19,293

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Get well soon cyclefree. You're the acceptable face of Brexit so look after yourself. There aren't many others. If you're not out by election day I'll come and visit you!

    There aren't many others.

    well thanks Roger youre the acceptable face of equine fellatio
    While you can still make people laugh you're everyone's friend.

    By the way I've never tried it. Is it good or just an Irish thing?
    Equine fellatio ?

    very popular in the countryside, I must take you to Chipping Norton some day.
    I thought they were into pigs?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Guido thinks Esther McVey could be Tory candidate in Upminster where Angela Watkinson is standing down.

    A scouser?! We don't allow them round here
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,425
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Get well soon cyclefree. You're the acceptable face of Brexit so look after yourself. There aren't many others. If you're not out by election day I'll come and visit you!

    There aren't many others.

    well thanks Roger youre the acceptable face of equine fellatio
    While you can still make people laugh you're everyone's friend.

    By the way I've never tried it. Is it good or just an Irish thing?
    Equine fellatio ?

    very popular in the countryside, I must take you to Chipping Norton some day.
    I thought they were into pigs?
    were big on diversity
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    glw said:

    SeanT said:

    glw said:

    Is there something wrong with Dawn Butler? It wasn't just an incoherent interview, she didn't sound all there.

    I think she is just a bit average, and massively over-promoted, and hugely inexperienced.
    Sounded worse than that to me, she was speaking very slowly and seemed to struggle to form sentences.
    Mr. GLW, once upon a time such symptoms in a politician were put down to them feeling tired and emotional and forgotten about, unless they happened too often.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 57,294
    Sorry to hear your news, Cyclefree.

    Take a break. And get well soon.
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    @Cyclefree Sorry to hear your news. Hope the weather is good for your enforced retreat. Rest, relax, & refresh. X X
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,305
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    FFS the guy in Paris apparently had an AK-47. In central Paris. A submachine gun.

    Where are you getting the information from?
    His arse apparently, as an AK-47 is an assault rifle not an SMG.
This discussion has been closed.