politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s
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More importantly it isn't for politicians to dictate the tv schedules or programming.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. W, it isn't for broadcasters to dictate the campaigning style or schedule of politicians.
I was in favour of the first debates, but they were so horrendous (and the worm wide open to groupthink or infiltration) I've completely gone off them.
You don't like tv debates. Switch channels.
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Don't think that will go down too well with GeorgeDecrepitJohnL said:
If Osborne really has missed the print deadline, TSE should apply to be editor instead.HYUFD said:So Osborne gets his first scoop for the Evening Standard, from himself. Now he is departing the Commons will TSE throw his hat into the ring in Tatton to keep the Cameroon/Osborneite flame alive?
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Unfortunately for the LDs, I think they will put an enormous amount of resources into losing both Oxford seats rather narrowly.another_richard said:
The LibDems would need a swing of 20% to gain Oxford East.Tissue_Price said:
Lib Dem gain.AlastairMeeks said:
So do they go for it or concentrate on Conservative Oxford West.
As AM says there's going to be lots of decisions about where to target resources.0 -
Here's a question
Who will win
SNP vote share Scotland
Tory share England & Wales.0 -
1 LD gainTissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
2 Lab hold
3 SNP hold (though Edinburgh W may go LD)
4 Lab hold
5 Lab hold0 -
Doesn't the pitiful state of the Labour party make the present circumstances unique? If the Lib Dem comeback becomes the dominant media narrative, it will probably stay that way up until polling day. Labour is more likely to collapse than mount an effective fightback.david_herdson said:
Very true. The Lib Dems usually poll around 3-4% better for local elections than GEs. So if they do take an NEV of 16% on May 4 (which they should), the risk is that enthusiasm about an election surge could lead them to reading the figures directly across and thinking that they're on course to double their vote.IanB2 said:
And there is a risk that good local election results might tempt the LibDems to target quite wide for the General.tpfkar said:My fear is that the Lib Dems will have the same experience as UKIP in 2015, lots of votes and motivated voters all over the country, not a lot of seats to show for it, and lots of moaning about the electoral system as a result (justified imo)
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.0 -
June 2017, the election where Prof Nuttall becomes Prime MinisterFrancisUrquhart said:
I presume Prof Paul Nutall, noticed academic and former professional footballer will be there, unless he is double booked with a neuro-science lecture or coaching session with Everton U23's.Scott_P said:
She has said no, and we can take her at her word, right?isam said:Any absolute conviction from you on whether she'll attend?!
I can say Nige won't be there
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Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...0
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I would have hoped the six years of education beforehand would have taught them how to read and count.DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely 16 year olds were edumacated by Michael Gove's free schools?another_richard said:Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/uk-skills-crisis-young-workers-struggle-reading-maths/
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Very long odds...Labour City of London electing an unpopular Tory Toff...Ain't gonna happen.GarethoftheVale2 said:Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
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Why on earth would he want that job?GarethoftheVale2 said:Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
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Bristol West - Molly Scott Cato (Green) MEP - seems to be keen on VAT on meat, probably more to the left of Darren Hall who is contesting Mayoral job in Bristol/Bath. Hasn't struck me as someone with great campaigning skills.
Don't know who Lib Dems have chosen, unless Stephen Williams is keeping his options open if he loses in early May.
Labour incumbent seems to be targeted by Momentum for deselection, appeared to have good campaigning skills on the doorstep. Hope she won't have another 'straight fight' leaflet going through the door.0 -
That said 1.20 is still too long for Lab vs LD votes (Ladbrokes)williamglenn said:
Doesn't the pitiful state of the Labour party make the present circumstances unique? If the Lib Dem comeback becomes the dominant media narrative, it will probably stay that way up until polling day. Labour is more likely to collapse than mount an effective fightback.david_herdson said:
Very true. The Lib Dems usually poll around 3-4% better for local elections than GEs. So if they do take an NEV of 16% on May 4 (which they should), the risk is that enthusiasm about an election surge could lead them to reading the figures directly across and thinking that they're on course to double their vote.IanB2 said:
And there is a risk that good local election results might tempt the LibDems to target quite wide for the General.tpfkar said:My fear is that the Lib Dems will have the same experience as UKIP in 2015, lots of votes and motivated voters all over the country, not a lot of seats to show for it, and lots of moaning about the electoral system as a result (justified imo)
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.0 -
Just heard The Sunil on Sunday has learnt of some betting markets re. TSE defecting to the LibDems before Election Day:
FretBed - 1/10
Bradlokes - 1/2
MaddyMower - Evens
Hilliam Will - 3/2
Bet247 - 2/1
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Bristol West is like a mini Islington there days. Bonkers VAT on meat policy will probably go down well.dr_spyn said:Bristol West - Molly Scott Cato (Green) MEP - seems to be keen on VAT on meat, probably more to the left of Darren Hall who is contesting Mayoral job in Bristol/Bath. Hasn't struck me as someone with great campaigning skills.
Don't know who Lib Dems have chosen, unless Stephen Williams is keeping his options open if he loses in early May.
Labour incumbent seems to be targeted by Momentum for deselection, appeared to have good campaigning skills on the doorstep. Hope she won't have another 'straight fight' leaflet going through the door.0 -
How the fuck is that Blair's fault? Labour have been out of power for seven years you utter cretin.another_richard said:Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/uk-skills-crisis-young-workers-struggle-reading-maths/0 -
That is indeed possible but while it's fine to work on the basis of a campaign dynamic, the Lib Dems - like all other parties - need to do so on the basis of a true understanding of their support, which the local elections won't give them directly.williamglenn said:
Doesn't the pitiful state of the Labour party make the present circumstances unique? If the Lib Dem comeback becomes the dominant media narrative, it will probably stay that way up until polling day. Labour is more likely to collapse than mount an effective fightback.david_herdson said:
Very true. The Lib Dems usually poll around 3-4% better for local elections than GEs. So if they do take an NEV of 16% on May 4 (which they should), the risk is that enthusiasm about an election surge could lead them to reading the figures directly across and thinking that they're on course to double their vote.IanB2 said:
And there is a risk that good local election results might tempt the LibDems to target quite wide for the General.tpfkar said:My fear is that the Lib Dems will have the same experience as UKIP in 2015, lots of votes and motivated voters all over the country, not a lot of seats to show for it, and lots of moaning about the electoral system as a result (justified imo)
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.0 -
Any news on N Farage's intentions?
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Again, Michael Gove.another_richard said:
I would have hoped the six years of education beforehand would have taught them how to read and count.DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely 16 year olds were edumacated by Michael Gove's free schools?another_richard said:Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/uk-skills-crisis-young-workers-struggle-reading-maths/0 -
I would think at this time of day, a second double Whiskey, followed by a couple of cheeky pints and a read of the paper...swing_voter said:Any news on N Farage's intentions?
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For all the hand egg fans on here...
Former NFL footballer Aaron Hernandez has been found dead in his cell in Massachusetts, officials say.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-396413380 -
"In a reference to the SNP, May says anyone who abstains in this vote will endorsing the record of the Conservative government." - guardian liveblog
Stupid comment from May. If this was the case, voting for the GE would mean voting in disapproval of the Conservative government. Which would include May herself.
It can't work one way but not the other.0 -
Many posts (such as the one quoted by Alastair Meeks above) are entirely blank on my screen. When I myself quote them, as I am doing now, I can see it seems to be cut and pastes from twitter, although I still can't read anything useful - this one has a twitter URL with an 18 digit number at the end...so I have no idea what seat is tory target #49AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election_data/status/854663451582640130
Conservative target number 49.
Why don't they show up on my PC? Using IE, since work have bizarrely blocked us from using Chrome. Is IE just rubbish?
Edit: and after posting it goes back to being blank except for the words "Conservative target number 49."-1 -
Really ? I don't remember Michael Gove being education minister before 2010.DecrepitJohnL said:
Again, Michael Gove.another_richard said:
I would have hoped the six years of education beforehand would have taught them how to read and count.DecrepitJohnL said:
Surely 16 year olds were edumacated by Michael Gove's free schools?another_richard said:Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/uk-skills-crisis-young-workers-struggle-reading-maths/
Now when did a sixteen year old start school ...0 -
AbsolutelyParistonda said:"In a reference to the SNP, May says anyone who abstains in this vote will endorsing the record of the Conservative government." - guardian liveblog
Stupid comment from May. If this was the case, voting for the GE would mean voting in disapproval of the Conservative government. Which would include May herself.
It can't work one way but not the other.
Yet another stupid comment from May - there's a pattern forming...0 -
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West. All day long. I think the Lib Dems have learned their lesson - lots of long-shot targets in 2010 that didn't come off, lots of long-shot holds in 2015 with the same result.another_richard said:
The LibDems would need a swing of 20% to gain Oxford East.Tissue_Price said:
Lib Dem gain.AlastairMeeks said:
So do they go for it or concentrate on Conservative Oxford West.
As AM says there's going to be lots of decisions about where to target resources.
Expect lots of high-flown rhetoric about "the real opposition" but Farron and those around him are canny enough to know this election is about regaining a foothold, not replacing Labour as the main opposition. All the effort will be in seats lost last time (and not all of those by any means) and in a tiny handful of selected others (Oxford West is an example) where the Lib Dems are in the game and demographics and Referendum position make it too tempting.0 -
Ruth Ellen Brousseau in Alastair's article of course took a Bloc Quebecois seat. She still holds it despite her poor French) or maybe she is now as fluent as her constituents in working class, heavily French-speaking East Montreal.calum said:Daisley calls peak SNP !
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/854667024705957890
The BQ once dominated francophone Quebec in the same way that the SNP now dominate Scotland. The BQ took took every francophone riding in 1993. They now hold about five.
There is a peak, because there always is.
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Inner London Is full of extreme lefties, the suburbs are Brexit leaving w kipper tendencies!GarethoftheVale2 said:Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
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Theresa May is a heartless bitch continued.
http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/update/2017-04-19/norfolk-mp-cancels-his-wedding-because-of-general-election-clash/-1 -
Try reading what it says you utter cretin.Monty said:
How the fuck is that Blair's fault? Labour have been out of power for seven years you utter cretin.another_richard said:Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/uk-skills-crisis-young-workers-struggle-reading-maths/
What years were people aged 16-24 at school ?
What years were people aged 16-24 meant to be learning basic literacy and numeracy ?
Now who was in charge of education policy between 1997 and 2010 ?
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The context for Scotland and Quebec is very different, not least because of the existence of the European Union and the unresolved political pressures of Brexit. I'd be wary of drawing any parallels.YBarddCwsc said:The BQ once dominated francophone Quebec in the same way that the SNP now dominate Scotland. The BQ took took every francophone riding in 1993. They now hold about five.
There is a peak, because there always is.
There will be a peak for the SNP, but that is not the same as saying that they will not reach the summit.0 -
Bristol West: LabTissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Edinburgh South: Con
Edinburgh SW: SNP
Heywood: Lab
Norwich South: Lab0 -
'...bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds 'Monty said:
How the fuck is that Blair's fault? Labour have been out of power for seven years you utter cretin.another_richard said:Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/uk-skills-crisis-young-workers-struggle-reading-maths/
How the fuck is that Blair's fault? Labour have been out of power for seven years you utter cretin.
Well, numeracy is clearly a problem on this site too, if you're unable to subtract seven from sixteen and twenty four, before drawing conclusions and resorting to disobliging epithets...0 -
Sympathies go out to his young daughter.FrancisUrquhart said:For all the hand egg fans on here...
Former NFL footballer Aaron Hernandez has been found dead in his cell in Massachusetts, officials say.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-396413380 -
@faisalislam: Former Tory minister Swayne congratulates Labour benches on being "Turkeys voting for Christmas". Almost daring Labour not to back motion.
Duh!!!!!!!!!0 -
Easy Labour hold I think.Tissue_Price said:
Lib Dem gain.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
JonCisBack said:
Many posts (such as the one quoted by Alastair Meeks above) are entirely blank on my screen. When I myself quote them, as I am doing now, I can see it seems to be cut and pastes from twitter, although I still can't read anything useful - this one has a twitter URL with an 18 digit number at the end...so I have no idea what seat is tory target #49AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election_data/status/854663451582640130
Conservative target number 49.
Why don't they show up on my PC? Using IE, since work have bizarrely blocked us from using Chrome. Is IE just rubbish?
Edit: and after posting it goes back to being blank except for the words "Conservative target number 49."
There's JavaScript that is used on the web page to automatically expand Twitter comments. If that script is blocked from running for some reason (or the original Tweet is deleted), then they just go blank.
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So who should the Tories stand against Khan next time round? They need someone fairly high profileisam said:
Inner London Is full of extreme lefties, the suburbs are Brexit leaving w kipper tendencies!GarethoftheVale2 said:Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
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Deleted-1
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Osborne finishes his political career at about the same age as most people start theirs.0
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Brexit has actually not really moved the polling on Scottish independence and whether Canada should look more to Europe or the US/GB was very much an issue in Quebec. It also took 2 referendums to settle the independence question in Quebec and Quebec still has an in built anti Canadian Tory majority much as Scotland has against the UK Torieswilliamglenn said:
The context for Scotland and Quebec is very different, not least because of the existence of the European Union and the unresolved political pressures of Brexit. I'd be wary of drawing any parallels.YBarddCwsc said:The BQ once dominated francophone Quebec in the same way that the SNP now dominate Scotland. The BQ took took every francophone riding in 1993. They now hold about five.
There is a peak, because there always is.0 -
Bolton has seen weaker Labour recovery from Brown lows than other parts of GM like Manchester and Oldham. And there is a high UKIP vote to squeeze.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election_data/status/854663451582640130
Conservative target number 49.0 -
Well, let's put it this way. They only have England/NI in the tables, and they're shite. 54 per cent of workers between 16-24 have no or little technology skills.Monty said:
How the fuck is that Blair's fault? Labour have been out of power for seven years you utter cretin.another_richard said:Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/uk-skills-crisis-young-workers-struggle-reading-maths/
In every serious international comparison in educational standards, Wales has done a lot worse train England/NI. Not a bit worse, a lot worse (as even the First Minister has acknowledged),
Welsh education is Labour's fault.
There is no-one else to blame. Labour have been in power for 18 years.0 -
Business have and always will moan about the skills of young people when asked.another_richard said:Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/uk-skills-crisis-young-workers-struggle-reading-maths/
But Blair government did see substantial improvements in literacy and numeracy...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/6564933.stm0 -
Ruth DavidsonGarethoftheVale2 said:
So who should the Tories stand against Khan next time round? They need someone fairly high profileisam said:
Inner London Is full of extreme lefties, the suburbs are Brexit leaving w kipper tendencies!GarethoftheVale2 said:Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
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I've been on my lunch break. Has TSE recovered?0
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Bristol West and Norwich South could be Green gains if the Labour campaign completely implodes over the course of the next seven weeks. I'm assuming that won't happen at the moment.0
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Trinity Term runs well past June 8thReallyEvilMuffin said:Does anyone think that the election being in June (and outside most university term times) could have an impact on reducing lib dem areas of support like in Oxford East?
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Wait til he hears Johnny Mercer has quit.Essexit said:I've been on my lunch break. Has TSE recovered?
(Just kidding!)0 -
Four parties will be tussling for Norwich South. All have a respectable chance.AndyJS said:Bristol West and Norwich South could be Green gains if the Labour campaign completely implodes over the course of the next seven weeks. I'm assuming that won't happen at the moment.
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Deleted. Joke already made.0
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Breaking news: Frauke Petry will not lead the AfD going into the German elections.0
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I'd be interested to know if the former LD MP is going to stand again. Could make a significant difference.AlastairMeeks said:
Four parties will be tussling for Norwich South. All have a respectable chance.AndyJS said:Bristol West and Norwich South could be Green gains if the Labour campaign completely implodes over the course of the next seven weeks. I'm assuming that won't happen at the moment.
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Rubbish! Greens do not have a hope in hell of winning Norwich South now. They almost came fourth in 2015. A Tory gain is much more likely , but Lewis should hold.AndyJS said:Bristol West and Norwich South could be Green gains if the Labour campaign completely implodes over the course of the next seven weeks. I'm assuming that won't happen at the moment.
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Actually it seems like something the Tories might want - otherwise they risk having dozens of by-elections after the GE. A small risk IMO, but...dr_spyn said:Is Skinner seriously trying to get innocent MPs to stand down on grounds that under investigation = guilt?
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Who will be her Doenitz?williamglenn said:Breaking news: Frauke Petry will not lead the AfD going into the German elections.
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I hope the Lib Dems put in some effort in St Albans. The current MP is dying on her feet in the Commons.0
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Not sure, but it might well not be vs Khan. I can't imagine Osbornes unpopularity w London Labour Corbynistas could be overcome by the suburbs in the way Boris managed.GarethoftheVale2 said:
So who should the Tories stand against Khan next time round? They need someone fairly high profileisam said:
Inner London Is full of extreme lefties, the suburbs are Brexit leaving w kipper tendencies!GarethoftheVale2 said:Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
I guess he may curry enough favour via The Standard?
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She's dreadful, unsurprisingly I've never heard of her before.williamglenn said:I hope the Lib Dems put in some effort in St Albans. The current MP is dying on her feet in the Commons.
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NickPalmer said:
Actually it seems like something the Tories might want - otherwise they risk having dozens of by-elections after the GE. A small risk IMO, but...dr_spyn said:Is Skinner seriously trying to get innocent MPs to stand down on grounds that under investigation = guilt?
They will only need to have a by-election if the MP is banned from public office, which is a fairly high bar to clear.
Cannot see that happening in 'dozens' of seats. If any.
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Laddies have really taken out the axe on their LibDems 30 - 39 seats band, chopping the odds back from 8/1 to 9/20
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Damn, I'd backed 10-29 and was going to take a sniff of the 30-39 for insurance purposes. No point nowpeter_from_putney said:Laddies have really taken out the axe on their LibDems 30 - 39 seats band, chopping the odds back from 8/1 to 9/2
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You have supported Corbyn consistently. Can you explain what he has to gain from leading his party over a cliff to certain humiliating defeat? In what way does this help to advance his own agenda?. Prima facie it appears to be an act of pure masochism! How autistic is this guy really?NickPalmer said:
Actually it seems like something the Tories might want - otherwise they risk having dozens of by-elections after the GE. A small risk IMO, but...dr_spyn said:Is Skinner seriously trying to get innocent MPs to stand down on grounds that under investigation = guilt?
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In this election, Tim Farron is pitted against a mediocrity and a catastrophe. What is his minimum delivery requirement to keep his job?0
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SouthamObserver said:
In this election, Tim Farron is pitted against a mediocrity and a catastrophe. What is his minimum delivery requirement to keep his job?
End up with more MPs than he started with.
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I managed to get a slice at 7's when I refreshed the page it was 9/2peter_from_putney said:Laddies have really taken out the axe on their LibDems 30 - 39 seats band, chopping the odds back from 8/1 to 9/2
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Not losing any MPs would be a start, gaining any will be a cherry on top.SouthamObserver said:In this election, Tim Farron is pitted against a mediocrity and a catastrophe. What is his minimum delivery requirement to keep his job?
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Thanks for replying even though I have no clue what that means :-)MarkHopkins said:JonCisBack said:
Many posts (such as the one quoted by Alastair Meeks above) are entirely blank on my screen. When I myself quote them, as I am doing now, I can see it seems to be cut and pastes from twitter, although I still can't read anything useful - this one has a twitter URL with an 18 digit number at the end...so I have no idea what seat is tory target #49AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election_data/status/854663451582640130
Conservative target number 49.
Why don't they show up on my PC? Using IE, since work have bizarrely blocked us from using Chrome. Is IE just rubbish?
Edit: and after posting it goes back to being blank except for the words "Conservative target number 49."
There's JavaScript that is used on the web page to automatically expand Twitter comments. If that script is blocked from running for some reason (or the original Tweet is deleted), then they just go blank.0 -
They'll probably be 10/11 once things have settled downPulpstar said:
Any under/over line is always 5-6 the pair unless otherwise stated.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, don't have a Paddy account.
There is a 1.83 (either side) 28.5 under/over Lib Dem seat market on Ladbrokes, but I'd put tiny stakes on the 10-19 and 20-29 bands before I saw it.
Total exposure is still less than one regular F1 stake.
What're the odds on your tip?0 -
And Theresa May.SouthamObserver said:In this election, Tim Farron is pitted against a mediocrity and a catastrophe.
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Farron being put under a lot of pressure by SNP MPs to rule out a coalition with the Tories. Not doing so as yet.0
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Don't throw away those betting slips quite yet:
today Manchester’s acting returning officer Joanne Roney said she did not have the legal power to call the [Manchester Gorton byelection] vote off
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/19/election-2017-theresa-may-mps-early-vote-politics-live
13:400 -
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.AndyJS said:
Bristol West: LabTissue_Price said:A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Edinburgh South: Con
Edinburgh SW: SNP
Heywood: Lab
Norwich South: Lab
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.0 -
Labour down to nearly Tory 1997-2001 levelsTheScreamingEagles said:
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A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.0 -
"Not one step back!"Scott_P said:@faisalislam: Former Tory minister Swayne congratulates Labour benches on being "Turkeys voting for Christmas". Almost daring Labour not to back motion.
Duh!!!!!!!!!0 -
SNP 50 is interesting. Borders losses?TheScreamingEagles said:
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That combined with Paddy's ridiculous 36.5 o/u line has put some early hay in the barn.peter_from_putney said:Laddies have really taken out the axe on their LibDems 30 - 39 seats band, chopping the odds back from 8/1 to 9/2
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Tail risk.Patrick said:0 -
How can an MP be elected to a dissolved Parliament?Richard_Nabavi said:Don't throw away those betting slips quite yet:
today Manchester’s acting returning officer Joanne Roney said she did not have the legal power to call the [Manchester Gorton byelection] vote off
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/19/election-2017-theresa-may-mps-early-vote-politics-live
13:400 -
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.
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You have to vote for Clegg, you know it's what Osborne would want you to do.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Standing, but not any longer as party leader....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That's a tough ask given the number of Labour seats with chunky leads.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.
100 plus is the target.
Then again, hard to go wrong underestimating Corbyn.0 -
Who gives a stuff, some of us have bets on this.MaxPB said:
How can an MP be elected to a dissolved Parliament?Richard_Nabavi said:Don't throw away those betting slips quite yet:
today Manchester’s acting returning officer Joanne Roney said she did not have the legal power to call the [Manchester Gorton byelection] vote off
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/19/election-2017-theresa-may-mps-early-vote-politics-live
13:400 -
I'm meeting someone from Team Osborne in a bit, that'll be my recovery.GIN1138 said:
Guess you don't want to talk about the end of Osborne's political career... We're all here for you when your ready to "open up" though.TheScreamingEagles said:
A Tory majority of 90 against Corbyn seems very disappointing for Mrs May.TheScreamingEagles said:
100 plus is the target.0 -
"Autistic" does not mean what you think it means. As it refers to a disability, perhaps you should stop using the word?justin124 said:
You have supported Corbyn consistently. Can you explain what he has to gain from leading his party over a cliff to certain humiliating defeat? In what way does this help to advance his own agenda?. Prima facie it appears to be an act of pure masochism! How autistic is this guy really?NickPalmer said:
Actually it seems like something the Tories might want - otherwise they risk having dozens of by-elections after the GE. A small risk IMO, but...dr_spyn said:Is Skinner seriously trying to get innocent MPs to stand down on grounds that under investigation = guilt?
Subtract 7 from 16-24, if your numeracy permits that feat, and you will see the answer.Monty said:
How the fuck is that Blair's fault? Labour have been out of power for seven years you utter cretin.another_richard said:Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/uk-skills-crisis-young-workers-struggle-reading-maths/0 -
Have you bet on Ilford North yet?Pulpstar said:
Tail risk.Patrick said: 0
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