politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s vote
In 2011, Ruth Ellen Brosseau was a bartender in Ottawa, Canada’s capital. Some of her regulars were political activists for the New Democratic Party and when the federal election was looming, they twisted her arm to stand as a paper candidate in a no-hoper constituency in a heavily French-speaking area of Quebec. She didn’t campaign (just as well, since her French wasn’t very good), she didn’t even visit the constituency. During the election campaign she went on holiday in Vegas.
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In 2015 the polls indicated a Lab/SNP government was very likely.
In 2017 the Tories have a 21% lead in the polls.
The Tories should stick to hammering Corbyn and McDonnell on their IRA/Hamas links.
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/854621780522278913
"The way things are going, he'd probably trip over the sandwich, slip on the ketchup and give the bacon to Venezuela as a gift to commemorate worldwide socialism."
LOL
Mr. Meeks, it'll be interesting to see where Labour's floor is. If they lose seats, which seems eminently possible, this'll be the fifth election in a row they've done so.
1. Labour will poll worse than their worst opinion poll rating.
2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur.
3. UKIP vote share likely to halve.
4. SNP retain at least 50 seats.
5. Mrs May and TSE to invest in special edition "landslide" footwear.
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
IG have lib seats at 32-35
is that worth selling?
Edinburgh SW as with all SNP / Labour seats will remain SNP.
Edinburgh South could well go SNP...
https://wingsoverscotland.com/testing-the-water/
In terms of resources the Tories need to spread more widely. They need to cover the 4/5 seats where UKIP challenge, the 30 seats where Lib Dems challenge, the 50+ seats they hope to take from Labour, the 4-5 seats they hope to take in Scotland and probably a few Labour facing ones to be safe.
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.
Tories 375.5
Labour 168.5
LD 29.5
SNP 50.5
PC 4.5 (leaning under)
Green 1.5 (leaning under)
UKIP 1/4 no seats
https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20008089/D1/E32977607/F2/
One thing that struck me about some of the vox pops since May's announcement was the number of non-Tory voters prepared to contemplate voting for May's party, while at the same time saying they still wouldn't contemplate voting for the Lib Dems because of their support for the coalition...
Can't say I understand the logic, but it's a real thing.
2. Let's wait and see. It depends on whether May's line on Brexit and strengthening her hand is impregnable.
3, 4, (5) all very likely
Excellent thread Mr Meeks, thanks. - I quite agree that “No one knows anything” we’re in totally unchartered waters where traditional party loyalties have been fragmented as never before. GE2017 is set to be very unpredictable at a constituency level, although nationally the outcome is more or less assured.
I notice that the Ashcroft polling got Ed South West almost exactly right, only fractionally over estimating LDs and, by the same margin, underestimating SNP.
I'm waiting for some Scotland only polling before having at the Constituency markets.
Asselineau is the only candidate who has promised to pull France out of the EU. Is he receiving some interest from those who want to insure themselves against Le Pen having to withdraw, or what?
Again I don't think the old style models ever considered support for basically a one party state among a key voting demographic.
Anyway, going to be a busy few weeks between two votes in France and the UK General Election.
In the current climate I wouldn't however back Labour in any of them; out of the five their best chance is number four. In Scotland there might be continued anti-SNP tactical voting although for Labour to benefit would need a lot of tartan clothes pegs.
I think that working class constituencies where the Labour vote has declined markedly in recent elections, and where both the Conservatives and UKIP have substantial votes, will be very vulnerable.
I'm going to predict that Labour will lose such seats as Heywood & Middleton, Grimsby, Hartlepool, Stoke Central and South, Don Valley to the Conservatives.
Conversely, I think Labour will find it a good deal easier to hold places like Leeds NE, Wirral South, Crosby, Exeter, which the Tories would have expected to win easily on these poll numbers.
The campaign will throw up many a wobble and set PB off on wild theories. That said on balance it'll help the LibDems and reinforce Jezza as a total disaster zone. The Tories will cruise to the win at a canter.
However despite this my opinion of the PM has been severely dented. I had thought better of her. I was clearly wrong.
If there is an election approved today then a Scottish Parliament election in 2020 (four years after the last one as pre-FTPA rules dictated) will no longer clash with the next Westminster election.
So will the next Scottish Parliament election now be in 2020 or will it stay due 2021?
Edit: ha, I see you have already been chastised.
My ARSE has retired to sunnier climes ..
No tan line there ....
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.
You don't want to be pitied by your main opponents.
Scottish council by-elections have shown Unionist tactical voting, enough to get Cons in on the 7th round)
There will be tactical voting on an unprecedented scale.
But this does underline that TMay isn't very good at this. She is just reading from a script.
You can tell Gatland coaches the Ramshaggers.
Seriously though - Iain Henderson is a joke pick.
For example in 2015 Stockton South was a target seat and we had activists sent in (at the own cost btw!!!) from elsewhere. In 2017 we will be written off and will have what activists we have stripped away to defend MSEC Hartlepool Darlington etc.
In the Chamber for what could be Theresa May's penultimate PMQs
I greatly look forward to the return of the tactical voting wheels.
England only really hit top gear once in the Six Nations, though. Bit of a rest is fine.
Mr. Pulpstar, 30-39 seats would be nice.