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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No one knows anything. What to do if/when Mrs May wins today’s vote
In 2011, Ruth Ellen Brosseau was a bartender in Ottawa, Canada’s capital. Some of her regulars were political activists for the New Democratic Party and when the federal election was looming, they twisted her arm to stand as a paper candidate in a no-hoper constituency in a heavily French-speaking area of Quebec. She didn’t campaign (just as well, since her French wasn’t very good), she didn’t even visit the constituency. During the election campaign she went on holiday in Vegas.
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In 2015 the polls indicated a Lab/SNP government was very likely.
In 2017 the Tories have a 21% lead in the polls.
The Tories should stick to hammering Corbyn and McDonnell on their IRA/Hamas links.
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/854621780522278913
"The way things are going, he'd probably trip over the sandwich, slip on the ketchup and give the bacon to Venezuela as a gift to commemorate worldwide socialism."
LOL
Mr. Meeks, it'll be interesting to see where Labour's floor is. If they lose seats, which seems eminently possible, this'll be the fifth election in a row they've done so.
1. Labour will poll worse than their worst opinion poll rating.
2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur.
3. UKIP vote share likely to halve.
4. SNP retain at least 50 seats.
5. Mrs May and TSE to invest in special edition "landslide" footwear.
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge)
Edinburgh South (Lab held)
Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's)
Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge)
Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
IG have lib seats at 32-35
is that worth selling?
Edinburgh SW as with all SNP / Labour seats will remain SNP.
Edinburgh South could well go SNP...
https://wingsoverscotland.com/testing-the-water/
In terms of resources the Tories need to spread more widely. They need to cover the 4/5 seats where UKIP challenge, the 30 seats where Lib Dems challenge, the 50+ seats they hope to take from Labour, the 4-5 seats they hope to take in Scotland and probably a few Labour facing ones to be safe.
1. Lab hold
2. Con gain
3. Lib Dem gain
4. Con gain
5. Lab hold.
Tories 375.5
Labour 168.5
LD 29.5
SNP 50.5
PC 4.5 (leaning under)
Green 1.5 (leaning under)
UKIP 1/4 no seats
https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B5/C20008089/D1/E32977607/F2/
One thing that struck me about some of the vox pops since May's announcement was the number of non-Tory voters prepared to contemplate voting for May's party, while at the same time saying they still wouldn't contemplate voting for the Lib Dems because of their support for the coalition...
Can't say I understand the logic, but it's a real thing.
2. Let's wait and see. It depends on whether May's line on Brexit and strengthening her hand is impregnable.
3, 4, (5) all very likely
Excellent thread Mr Meeks, thanks. - I quite agree that “No one knows anything” we’re in totally unchartered waters where traditional party loyalties have been fragmented as never before. GE2017 is set to be very unpredictable at a constituency level, although nationally the outcome is more or less assured.
I notice that the Ashcroft polling got Ed South West almost exactly right, only fractionally over estimating LDs and, by the same margin, underestimating SNP.
I'm waiting for some Scotland only polling before having at the Constituency markets.
Asselineau is the only candidate who has promised to pull France out of the EU. Is he receiving some interest from those who want to insure themselves against Le Pen having to withdraw, or what?
Again I don't think the old style models ever considered support for basically a one party state among a key voting demographic.
Anyway, going to be a busy few weeks between two votes in France and the UK General Election.
Suppose I don't need to summarise the content of that one, really.
For a guy who was so politically astute, I was hoping it might have some insights in that we aren't getting from other commentators, but actually it's pretty bereft. In fact, in places it's all a bit silly really.
Because of the – in my experience – unique circumstances of the politics of Britain today, the PM can call an election, get a landslide, and then claim a mandate for Brexit At Any Cost.
These unique circumstances demand a unique response.
There has to be a way of ensuring (MBE ponders: like wot? Go on, tell us tell us tell us) that voters can put candidates for Parliament under sustained pressure to say whether they would vote against a deal which does not deliver the same benefits as we enjoy with the Single Market or against no deal if that transpires to be as damaging as many fear; and that they are prepared to hold the Government properly to account in the interests of the country.
This should cross Party lines.
The political situation the country faces is unprecedented and dangerous. We risk a Parliament which is lop-sided in its make-up; which has a big Tory majority - in part delivered not because of the intrinsic merits of Brexit or the Tories themselves but because of the state of Labour; where they will claim a mandate to take us wherever they will; when we desperately need representatives who will at least keep an open mind.
This requires the electorate in every constituency to know where the candidates stand; and the mobilisation of the thousands in each constituency to make it clear that for them this issue counts when it comes to their vote.
To be clear: I am not urging tactical voting or some anti Tory alliance; I am urging that, as part of this election campaign, we create the capacity for the people to know exactly what the choices are; and elect as many MPs as possible with an open mind on this issue who are prepared to vote according to the quality of the deal and the interests of the British people.
I have never known a political situation as perplexing as this (MBE wonders: ah, so don't you know either?); or as galvanising. But I am absolutely sure that there will be millions of British people who reflect on what this election means with acute anxiety; and wonder what can be done.
It's clear he's got some kind of vision here for an all-party anti-(hard)-Brexit alliance... yet notably there is absolutely zero suggestion for any mechanism by which it could be achieved. Just "perplexity". He was apparently on extensive behind-scenes maoeuvres a few months ago, I wonder if he had a masterplan in the works that this election has sprung too early for. Or is this strange little essay a teaser, perhaps we'll get some more details of The Plan later?
In the current climate I wouldn't however back Labour in any of them; out of the five their best chance is number four. In Scotland there might be continued anti-SNP tactical voting although for Labour to benefit would need a lot of tartan clothes pegs.
I think that working class constituencies where the Labour vote has declined markedly in recent elections, and where both the Conservatives and UKIP have substantial votes, will be very vulnerable.
I'm going to predict that Labour will lose such seats as Heywood & Middleton, Grimsby, Hartlepool, Stoke Central and South, Don Valley to the Conservatives.
Conversely, I think Labour will find it a good deal easier to hold places like Leeds NE, Wirral South, Crosby, Exeter, which the Tories would have expected to win easily on these poll numbers.
The campaign will throw up many a wobble and set PB off on wild theories. That said on balance it'll help the LibDems and reinforce Jezza as a total disaster zone. The Tories will cruise to the win at a canter.
However despite this my opinion of the PM has been severely dented. I had thought better of her. I was clearly wrong.
If there is an election approved today then a Scottish Parliament election in 2020 (four years after the last one as pre-FTPA rules dictated) will no longer clash with the next Westminster election.
So will the next Scottish Parliament election now be in 2020 or will it stay due 2021?
Edit: ha, I see you have already been chastised.
My ARSE has retired to sunnier climes ..
No tan line there ....
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.
You don't want to be pitied by your main opponents.
Brexit is an exchange of the pros and cons of one position in the world, for the pros and cons of another. People have strikingly different opinions about how those pros and cons weigh up - or even about what exactly they are - but Brexit wasn't sold as keeping the same pros as we already had.
To take just one example, one of the advantages of single market membership is that Britain's low-skill employers had free access to whatever low-wage East European labour they could attract to these shores. Depending on how one sees it, this is also a disadvantage. If one wants to keep the same balance sheet of advantages (and their accompany disadvantages) this is one of those things that has to stay as is. It's pretty clear how the electorate feel about this one.
There are other advantages of the Single Market that the British public are less wont to lose, but may be unable to retain. But overall, I can't see any prospect for success of a strategy based around "the only acceptable deal is one that keeps the current set of pros and cons".
It's utterly unrealistic. What's the more constructive, realistic vision? And what's the long game, bearing in mind these referenda are meant to be once in a generation affairs? Where do Blair or Farron or Osborne see the place of the UK with respect to the EU or single market in 30 years time? We didn't even get much sight of that when they were campaigning for Britain to remain in the EU, when at least we knew what the status quo looks like. If they don't like the path being taken now, will some visions* of their preferred course descend from on high?
* just like the multiple visions of Brexit - soft, hard, left-wing, freewheeling red-claw-capitalism neoliberal - there is surely more than one arguable vision of Anti-Brexit
Scottish council by-elections have shown Unionist tactical voting, enough to get Cons in on the 7th round)
There will be tactical voting on an unprecedented scale.
But this does underline that TMay isn't very good at this. She is just reading from a script.
You can tell Gatland coaches the Ramshaggers.
Seriously though - Iain Henderson is a joke pick.
For example in 2015 Stockton South was a target seat and we had activists sent in (at the own cost btw!!!) from elsewhere. In 2017 we will be written off and will have what activists we have stripped away to defend MSEC Hartlepool Darlington etc.
In the Chamber for what could be Theresa May's penultimate PMQs
I greatly look forward to the return of the tactical voting wheels.
England only really hit top gear once in the Six Nations, though. Bit of a rest is fine.
Linky again for those who missed it:
http://institute.global/news/damage-will-be-huge-if-we-end-brexit-any-cost
Incidentally, how big a prat do you have to be to call what is basically your personal website "www.institute.global"?
Mr. Pulpstar, 30-39 seats would be nice.