Scotland is going to be very interesting this election. It will be about the Union as well as Brexit.
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.
Holyrood is dangerous due to the different boundaries. There are some important differences in similarly named constituencies between Westminster and Holyrood.
Gorton is brilliant. What will the announcement be from the returning officer? They can't declare that the winner has been returned as MP for Gorton. Parliament will be prorogued - there will be no MPs and no parliament to be returned to. Do they just shake his/her hands and wish them luck for the GE campaigning which starts the same day?
Maybe the winner will be the ONLY Westminster MP? Elected after Parliament is prorogued. Sneaky way to become next Prime Minister and rush through some interesting legislation?!
The BQ once dominated francophone Quebec in the same way that the SNP now dominate Scotland. The BQ took took every francophone riding in 1993. They now hold about five.
There is a peak, because there always is.
The context for Scotland and Quebec is very different, not least because of the existence of the European Union and the unresolved political pressures of Brexit. I'd be wary of drawing any parallels.
There will be a peak for the SNP, but that is not the same as saying that they will not reach the summit.
Worth remembering that BQ dominance over Quebec lasted from 1993 until 2011. Nearly 20 years (there were fluctuations in strength but they remained the major player throughout). I think the SNP would be happy with that if we start the clock from 2011 and their majority Holyrood election. Could mean SNP dominance until late 2020s!
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.
Im pretty sure Jo Swinson wants her seat back and will be the Lib Dem candidate
Everyone I know who's met Jo has been extremely impressed with her. But. I simply don't see the LibDem strength in East Dumbartonshire. My guess is that Jo will end up in the low 30s, against 40 odd for the SNP.
Don't get me wrong, I really like Johnny Mercer - and he has a huge commitment to his seat and to Plymouth. But I suspect he is looking a little forlornly at the job offer from Osborne he has in his wallet, after taking the soundings of his constituency on Brexit, being told to go Leave - and then siding with Remain. Not his finest hour.
Osborne has been responsible for a lot of people's "not their finest hour" He should be appointed as Special Envoy to Buckle Island for a short while. Say 30-40 years.
Yes. Probably 1/3 of the country were somewhat Eurosceptic in a non-energetic sort of way. No love for EU but fearful the exit might be alot of hassle. And then the fanatics Dave n Ozzy turned up 'getting medieval on peoples' asses' about it. Many instinctive leavers were bullied into the Remain camp. People like Sajid Javid. Osborne was a fucking disgrace during the referendum. He made the right call today. His political future died on June 23rd last year.
It wasn't just that. It was him using the Conservative Party (its MPs, members and voters) as pawns in tactically positioning himself to naturally inherit the premiership following the GE2015 victory, aided and abetted by Cameron.
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
Given Cooper is clearly revving up to stand [check out the price movement today] I suspect there is your answer.
T.P. Hmmm ....
Agreed, not encouraging for my bet.
She wasn't a very good candidate last time though - so hopefully wisdom will prevail.
One of her handicaps last time was indeed being Mr Balls. With him out of the way that is one problem she doesn't have. Another was that she didn't seem to have anything remotely novel or interesting to say. Whoever next leads Labour has some big, potentially insurmountable, problems to tackle.
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.
East Dumbartonshire saw massive tactical voting for Swinson and also a huge turnout increase, 82% turnout which is monster. Will the Surging Cons keep tactically voting and will SNP voters turnout?
It's one of the reasons why I think turnout is so important for working out if the SNP will lose a scant few or a large handful of seats.
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
Just how will Corbyn be forced out?
He resigns - that is clear and easy, but will he (before the rule book is changed)?
If he is forced is it certain that the membership (who are not all worked up about 'power') will not back him or one of his type again?
While I think this election is great news for Labour and a chance to purge itself of Corbyism for its long term benefit, that may not be the result.
And they are voting now. Labour MPs voting to end their careers by following TMay through the lobbies.
Can't wait to see that on their election posters. The optics are brilliant, right?
Operation Ten-Go, 2017 style
Was there not an episode of Star Trek TOS where people voluntarily committed suicide by entering disintegration booths because a computer decided they had died in a virtual battle?
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.
I think he's +200 in my book so by all means, go ahead...
His decapitation two years ago was what convinced me to put more than pennies on the mayoralty.
I'm green on Balls, Thornberry, Kinnock and (thanks PB this morning) Ashworth.
I think May's ambush (less than 27 hours notice) on an early GE was well thought through.
It's given Corbyn's Labour (which usually takes 6 hours just to work out how to say boo to a goose) no time to respond, or for his opponents within the PLP to organise an alternative strategy in lieu of his leadership.
Scotland is going to be very interesting this election. It will be about the Union as well as Brexit.
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.
The SNP vote share will surely fall, given that they are the incumbents, and not all their supporters voted Remain.
Nevertheless there was a fair degree of anti-SNP tactical voting last time, which probably helped the three non-SNP MPs hold on. My sense is that this may unwind this time, because the differences between the other parties are much sharper and I don't get the feeling the SNP is actively disliked.
And they are voting now. Labour MPs voting to end their careers by following TMay through the lobbies.
Can't wait to see that on their election posters. The optics are brilliant, right?
Operation Ten-Go, 2017 style
Was there not an episode of Star Trek TOS where people voluntarily committed suicide by entering disintegration booths because a computer decided they had died in a virtual battle?
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.
I think he's +200 in my book so by all means, go ahead...
His decapitation two years ago was what convinced me to put more than pennies on the mayoralty.
I'm green on Balls, Thornberry, Kinnock and (thanks PB this morning) Ashworth.
I've only either (a) laid candidates (b) back at odds greater than 100/1 at £2 or (c) backed to cancel a lay. This means that my book is green on all but a handful - Lewis and DavidM particularly.
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.
Im pretty sure Jo Swinson wants her seat back and will be the Lib Dem candidate
Everyone I know who's met Jo has been extremely impressed with her. But. I simply don't see the LibDem strength in East Dumbartonshire. My guess is that Jo will end up in the low 30s, against 40 odd for the SNP.
It'll be an interesting contest, for sure. The seat was first out of 650 for highest turnout in 2015, which shows the ground game both LDs and Nats played last time. As a straight re-match between the two of them, the 20% of the vote that the Tories and Labour got between them is surely going to come under pressure, which will work in Jo's favour.
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
Just how will Corbyn be forced out?
He resigns - that is clear and easy, but will he (before the rule book is changed)?
If he is forced is it certain that the membership (who are not all worked up about 'power') will not back him or one of his type again?
While I think this election is great news for Labour and a chance to purge itself of Corbyism for its long term benefit, that may not be the result.
I think and hope that after a gruelling election campaign and then a pumelling result he will finally, finally give up the ghost and step aside - on or shortly after 8th June.
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?
Over for me - a clear choice and more engagement with politics post EU Ref. Against that it is a foregone conclusion, but I reckon we might beat the 66.4% from last time. There is also a possible technical effect from a "cleaner" register.
Still think the whole thing will collapse in to recriminations and legal challenges from UKIP, SNP, Plaid, etc and time will run out.
Well they should all be invited really, the same 7 as ITV in 2015, and a separate NI debate. It's not ideal but is the only way to avoid those issues (of course that may not stop other even smaller parties throwing a spanner in the works).
Anyone know what the swing was in the Georgia-6th distrrict last night? The dem was 2% short but what was the swing?
In November, Donald Trump only won the district by 1.5 percentage points even as GOP District 6 incumbent Tom Price won by 24 points.
As a special election, with no incumbency effect, I'd look at the Trump numbers as the starting point. i.e. this is effectively a referendum on Trump and so should be eminently winnable for the Dems. It is something of a failure not to have taken it on the first ballot.
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.
I think he's +200 in my book so by all means, go ahead...
His decapitation two years ago was what convinced me to put more than pennies on the mayoralty.
I'm green on Balls, Thornberry, Kinnock and (thanks PB this morning) Ashworth.
I've only either (a) laid candidates (b) back at odds greater than 100/1 at £2 or (c) backed to cancel a lay. This means that my book is green on all but a handful - Lewis and DavidM particularly.
Similiar strategy here, I did back Starmer yesterday at 7-1 mind to fill a bit of a hole I had. He probably deserves (weak) favoritism.
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?
Betfair's "LibDem 19 seats or more" at 1.29 looks like good value.
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
He won't stand against his wife and his wife has been the most effective MP on the opposition benches recently. Labour is also due a female leader, being the only party apart from the Lib Dems never to have had one.
On that basis, I don't think he'll return.
However, 100/1 is good value anyway because if he does stand as an MP then as long as he wins, he'll come under huge pressure to run and his price will tumble anyway.
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
Just how will Corbyn be forced out?
He resigns - that is clear and easy, but will he (before the rule book is changed)?
If he is forced is it certain that the membership (who are not all worked up about 'power') will not back him or one of his type again?
While I think this election is great news for Labour and a chance to purge itself of Corbyism for its long term benefit, that may not be the result.
I think and hope that after a gruelling election campaign and then a pumelling result he will finally, finally give up the ghost and step aside - on or shortly after 8th June.
With a bit of luck he will have a heart attack over the next two weeks.
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.
Im pretty sure Jo Swinson wants her seat back and will be the Lib Dem candidate
Everyone I know who's met Jo has been extremely impressed with her. But. I simply don't see the LibDem strength in East Dumbartonshire. My guess is that Jo will end up in the low 30s, against 40 odd for the SNP.
It'll be an interesting contest, for sure. The seat was first out of 650 for highest turnout in 2015, which shows the ground game both LDs and Nats played last time. As a straight re-match between the two of them, the 20% of the vote that the Tories and Labour got between them is surely going to come under pressure, which will work in Jo's favour.
But the Tories are surging - they got 15.5% in 2010 and 16.5% in 2005. They clearly leant their vote to LD as anti-SNP tactical votes. Are they really going to want to miss out on the glorious Scon revolution?
A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge) Edinburgh South (Lab held) Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's) Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge) Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Bristol West: Lab Edinburgh South: Con Edinburgh SW: SNP Heywood: Lab Norwich South: Lab
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.
In Edinburgh SW, popular Labour councillor Ricky Henderson (2015 candidate) is (was?) due to contest the council election.
No idea what the local parties will do in these situations - anyone have experience of similar situations?
And they are voting now. Labour MPs voting to end their careers by following TMay through the lobbies.
Can't wait to see that on their election posters. The optics are brilliant, right?
Operation Ten-Go, 2017 style
Was there not an episode of Star Trek TOS where people voluntarily committed suicide by entering disintegration booths because a computer decided they had died in a virtual battle?
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?
Betfair's "LibDem 19 seats or more" at 1.29 looks like good value.
Really? I've stuck another £100 there if you want it (it wasn't my money originally).
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think she's learned the hard way, via a fuck-up by her chancellor, that silly manifesto promises are just that, silly. The triple-lock is not affordable. We want freedom to reshape the tax system for the way the economy actually works.
A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge) Edinburgh South (Lab held) Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's) Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge) Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Bristol West: Lab Edinburgh South: Con Edinburgh SW: SNP Heywood: Lab Norwich South: Lab
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.
In Edinburgh SW, popular Labour councillor Ricky Henderson (2015 candidate) is (was?) due to contest the council election.
No idea what the local parties will do in these situations - anyone have experience of similar situations?
There will be loads of examples of this type of situation given that the councils are in a fortnight.
I guess they have to go through with it, then resign the council seat if they win at WM? Not that many UK parliamentary seats in Scotland are actually likely to change hands.
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?
Betfair's "LibDem 19 seats or more" at 1.29 looks like good value.
Really? I've stuck another £100 there if you want it (it wasn't my money originally).
I have taken half of it; I had a reasonable position already.
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?
Betfair's "LibDem 19 seats or more" at 1.29 looks like good value.
Really? I've stuck another £100 there if you want it (it wasn't my money originally).
I have taken half of it; I had a reasonable position already.
Off to a decent start with the various wacky races lines on this one.
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
she would be mad to end the triple lock
She is a politician. She will replace it with something she can sell to pensioners.
I expect she will retain free bus passes and TV licences, and probably the winter fuel allowance, but downgrade it to keeping pace with CPI, or the higher of CPI/earnings growth each year, but not at least 2.5% every year regardless.
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
off topic and perhaps unsayable, but it irritates me greatly when we get these public funding appeals (eg. Red Nose Day, some of the DECC appeals). What on earth is the 0.7% for if not precisely that?!
Comments
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100394
Pamela Anderson Weighs Into French Presidential Race on Behalf of Julian Assange
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pamela-anderson-weighs-french-presidential-race-behalf-julian-assange-n748151
It's one of the reasons why I think turnout is so important for working out if the SNP will lose a scant few or a large handful of seats.
He resigns - that is clear and easy, but will he (before the rule book is changed)?
If he is forced is it certain that the membership (who are not all worked up about 'power') will not back him or one of his type again?
While I think this election is great news for Labour and a chance to purge itself of Corbyism for its long term benefit, that may not be the result.
The HoC report reminded me of it for some reason
It's given Corbyn's Labour (which usually takes 6 hours just to work out how to say boo to a goose) no time to respond, or for his opponents within the PLP to organise an alternative strategy in lieu of his leadership.
Noes 13
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Taste_of_Armageddon
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?
https://twitter.com/graeme_from_IT/status/854690600528093184
Mr. Patrick, that's good news.
As a special election, with no incumbency effect, I'd look at the Trump numbers as the starting point. i.e. this is effectively a referendum on Trump and so should be eminently winnable for the Dems. It is something of a failure not to have taken it on the first ballot.
On that basis, I don't think he'll return.
However, 100/1 is good value anyway because if he does stand as an MP then as long as he wins, he'll come under huge pressure to run and his price will tumble anyway.
Ken Clarke not retiring, or has La Soubry had a good lunch?
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
No idea what the local parties will do in these situations - anyone have experience of similar situations?
She wants to clear the decks so there can be no restraint on her actions.
I guess they have to go through with it, then resign the council seat if they win at WM? Not that many UK parliamentary seats in Scotland are actually likely to change hands.
https://order-order.com/2017/04/19/13-mps-voted-election/
0-18 +113.63
19-30 +4.63
30-35 +244.63
36 +224.59
37-39 +104.64
40-49 +29.64
50+ -135.36
I expect she will retain free bus passes and TV licences, and probably the winter fuel allowance, but downgrade it to keeping pace with CPI, or the higher of CPI/earnings growth each year, but not at least 2.5% every year regardless.
Not.