Labour will run a genuinely bipolar campaign. On one hand Corbyn and his acolytes will be expecting big things. On the other hand regional offices run by sane people know we are fucked and will be defending seats at risk with any resources they have.
For example in 2015 Stockton South was a target seat and we had activists sent in (at the own cost btw!!!) from elsewhere. In 2017 we will be written off and will have what activists we have stripped away to defend MSEC Hartlepool Darlington etc.
you clearly don't know the local area. I would be writing Darlington off and focussing on keeping Sedgefield...
Mr. Ears, if the vote goes May's way today, Blair only has seven weeks, from a standing start, to reveal The Plan and persuade the electorate (and other politicians) it's a good idea.
I thought the piece was quite cryptic. Perhaps it was just rushed, or even emotional at a whole great edifice he'd built up being torn right down again - I wonder whether he ever regrets not being the PM who took us into the Euro.
Incidentally, how big a prat do you have to be to call what is basically your personal website "www.institute.global"?
It must be hurting him to see as Labour's most successful ever leader the destruction of his party (he's not blameless for the state it is in). The UK leaving the EU clearly has hurt him badly as well. He was a political colossus, now he is toxic. People just won't listen to anything he has to say on pretty much any subject.
My fear is that the Lib Dems will have the same experience as UKIP in 2015, lots of votes and motivated voters all over the country, not a lot of seats to show for it, and lots of moaning about the electoral system as a result (justified imo)
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.
And there is a risk that good local election results might tempt the LibDems to target quite wide for the General.
Very true. The Lib Dems usually poll around 3-4% better for local elections than GEs. So if they do take an NEV of 16% on May 4 (which they should), the risk is that enthusiasm about an election surge could lead them to reading the figures directly across and thinking that they're on course to double their vote.
Every Labour MP who pops up is having their position on Corbyn quoted back at them by the Prime Minister. There's going to be some cracking election literature this time.....
Labour will run a genuinely bipolar campaign. On one hand Corbyn and his acolytes will be expecting big things. On the other hand regional offices run by sane people know we are fucked and will be defending seats at risk with any resources they have.
For example in 2015 Stockton South was a target seat and we had activists sent in (at the own cost btw!!!) from elsewhere. In 2017 we will be written off and will have what activists we have stripped away to defend MSEC Hartlepool Darlington etc.
you clearly don't know the local area. I would be writing Darlington off and focussing on keeping Sedgefield...
You ever met Phil Wilson? Why would we want to do that...
Very funny comment on Polly's thread, in response to a pro-Corbynite wondering why the Graun didn't go the whole hog (!) and show Jezza eating a bacon sandwich:
"The way things are going, he'd probably trip over the sandwich, slip on the ketchup and give the bacon to Venezuela as a gift to commemorate worldwide socialism."
LOL
No, he'd give the bacon to the State of Israel to show that Labour is moving on from its ingrained anti-semitism.
I think a decent party rule of thumb for the election will be :
1. Labour will poll worse than their worst opinion poll rating. 2. LibDem substantial higher seat predictions will fail to occur. 3. UKIP vote share likely to halve. 4. SNP retain at least 50 seats. 5. Mrs May and TSE to invest in special edition "landslide" footwear.
That all sounds about right to me (& I doubt campaigning is going to matter very much).
One thing that struck me about some of the vox pops since May's announcement was the number of non-Tory voters prepared to contemplate voting for May's party, while at the same time saying they still wouldn't contemplate voting for the Lib Dems because of their support for the coalition... Can't say I understand the logic, but it's a real thing.
Vox pops like twiiter are a poor arbiter of the state of play.
The campaign will throw up many a wobble and set PB off on wild theories. That said on balance it'll help the LibDems and reinforce Jezza as a total disaster zone. The Tories will cruise to the win at a canter.
However despite this my opinion of the PM has been severely dented. I had thought better of her. I was clearly wrong.
I agree with the vox pop caveat, but it's nonetheless striking that May seems (for now) immune to Tory toxicity.
Can someone explain to me why Emmanuel Macron is odds against for the presidency?
I can have a go, but this is an attempt at an explanation rather than an endorsement of that view.
1. His support is soft. Other candidates - Le Pen and Fillon in particular - have a higher proportion of certain voters. 2. No tested party machine behind him. 3. Close four-way campaign produces no benefit to tactical voting so being the least offensive in the first round is little advantage. 4. His support has been drifting over the last fortnight.
Considering that he should beat anyone in the second round and that he's still a few points clear of third, I reckon he should be about 1.7.
Labour will run a genuinely bipolar campaign. On one hand Corbyn and his acolytes will be expecting big things. On the other hand regional offices run by sane people know we are fucked and will be defending seats at risk with any resources they have.
For example in 2015 Stockton South was a target seat and we had activists sent in (at the own cost btw!!!) from elsewhere. In 2017 we will be written off and will have what activists we have stripped away to defend MSEC Hartlepool Darlington etc.
you clearly don't know the local area. I would be writing Darlington off and focussing on keeping Sedgefield...
You ever met Phil Wilson? Why would we want to do that...
Sedgefield was a constituency that I had in mind when writing this piece. It looks to me like exactly the type of seat that might be an unexpected Conservative gain.
Mr. Meeks, it's a tight contest in France, and Macron has under 50% certainty to vote, whereas Fillon and Le Pen are around 75% each (or were, some weeks ago).
@BethRigby: So, the next question. As editor of Evening Standard, will @George_Osborne back May in the general election or the Brexit fighting Lib Dems?
I guess that there is always a percentage who decide early that it's their last term, but keep quiet until nearer the election while they make other plans (a nice little non-exec role, making sure their chosen successor is in place etc).
But normally the election is 4-5 years after the last one, so news of retirements drip out after the halfway mark of the Parliament. This time, it's all a big surprise, so the news is coming at once.
That said, it would not be a shock to see more Labour retirements this time. Someone like Tom Blenkinsop, for example, would be incredibly unlikely to go in more normal times.
Can someone explain to me why Emmanuel Macron is odds against for the presidency?
I can have a go, but this is an attempt at an explanation rather than an endorsement of that view.
1. His support is soft. Other candidates - Le Pen and Fillon in particular - have a higher proportion of certain voters. 2. No tested party machine behind him. 3. Close four-way campaign produces no benefit to tactical voting so being the least offensive in the first round is little advantage. 4. His support has been drifting over the last fortnight.
Considering that he should beat anyone in the second round and that he's still a few points clear of third, I reckon he should be about 1.7.
4 seems out of date. His polling has stabilised in the last week. He's led or co-led the last 12 polls including this one:
A bet against him is basically a bet that all the round one opinion polls are wrong and wrong against him (given he cleans up in round two). Not impossible by any means, but surely that doesn't justify him being odds against.
Mr. B2, potentially. Happened to Antigonus Monopthalmus.
On the other hand, it's Sturgeon who made that first made (progressive alliance, wibble wibble). I think it helps the Lib Dems most. Gets them tactical votes, but people are, I would guess, less likely to lend a vote to Corbynite Labour.
Labour will run a genuinely bipolar campaign. On one hand Corbyn and his acolytes will be expecting big things. On the other hand regional offices run by sane people know we are fucked and will be defending seats at risk with any resources they have.
For example in 2015 Stockton South was a target seat and we had activists sent in (at the own cost btw!!!) from elsewhere. In 2017 we will be written off and will have what activists we have stripped away to defend MSEC Hartlepool Darlington etc.
you clearly don't know the local area. I would be writing Darlington off and focussing on keeping Sedgefield...
You ever met Phil Wilson? Why would we want to do that...
Sedgefield was a constituency that I had in mind when writing this piece. It looks to me like exactly the type of seat that might be an unexpected Conservative gain.
I agree. If the Tories win Sedgarticle this would be one hell of an election coup!
I may have misread it but I think you put up a post earlier suggesting that you were going to be putting some money on the LibDems on more than 20 seats. I know you had a good race at the F1 this last weekend, but I urge caution. There is only so much character-building that a young man can take.
Firstly, such a result would wipe out the current Conservative majority and require it be built afresh from seats taken from Labour. A possible outcome to be sure but not one, I feel, that Mrs. May would gamble on, and she has better sources of information than we do.
Secondly 20 seats is the lower bound of a prediction of a poster on here who, with the exception of the Oscars, has never been correct, at least if he has it was not for the reasons he gave at the time. You will be betting on the side of the chap that foretold that the run on Northern Rock was a bit of stupidity by thick people which would be forgotten by Friday. A fellow who in PB parlance has had the affectionate appellation "damus" added to his name in honour of the number of times he has been proved wrong.
I am not someone who would discourage a young man from the joys of gambling, what he can afford to lose. However, if you are going to bet on the LIBDems more than doubling the number of seats held may I respectfully suggest that you also take out a hedge?
Yup. Tories are going to clean up, deliver Brexit, smash Labour and govern for at least 5 years. If it's a total landslide then 2027 rather than 2022 for an alternative to take power. So.... the political career is over for many MPs. Those who can't face a decade of hard work to rebuild a remainy, progressive, statist, lefty 'I know better' worldview... (and that is going to be awful hard in a world where we simply can't borrow forever and financial discipline is an entry ticket to being electable).
Mr. Llama, my F1 stakes are never colossal, and my political stakes are smaller still. I've not forgotten the Golden Rule:
only bet what you can afford to lose.
I think the Lib Dems will get to the high teens or maybe twenties, but it is possible they'll do better.
Edited extra bit: following your post, just checked. The odds have tumbled from 8 to 5.5, odds for 10-19 and 20-29 have lengthened. Now evens or ahead if they're 10-39.
So Osborne gets his first scoop for the Evening Standard, from himself. Now he is departing the Commons will TSE throw his hat into the ring in Tatton to keep the Cameroon/Osborneite flame alive?
Does anyone think that the election being in June (and outside most university term times) could have an impact on reducing lib dem areas of support like in Oxford East?
Can someone explain to me why Emmanuel Macron is odds against for the presidency?
I can have a go, but this is an attempt at an explanation rather than an endorsement of that view.
1. His support is soft. Other candidates - Le Pen and Fillon in particular - have a higher proportion of certain voters. 2. No tested party machine behind him. 3. Close four-way campaign produces no benefit to tactical voting so being the least offensive in the first round is little advantage. 4. His support has been drifting over the last fortnight.
Considering that he should beat anyone in the second round and that he's still a few points clear of third, I reckon he should be about 1.7.
4 seems out of date. His polling has stabilised in the last week. He's led or co-led the last 12 polls including this one:
A bet against him is basically a bet that all the round one opinion polls are wrong and wrong against him (given he cleans up in round two). Not impossible by any means, but surely that doesn't justify him being odds against.
Yes, it has stabilised but he's still lower than he was and there are reasons to think he might go lower. That or, as you say, there's something systemically wrong with the polls that's boosting him.
Poor TSE. I genuinely feel a bit of empathy for him. He had a political hero / mentor. Someone who helped and was nice to him. A big beast. Who's now gone. Hard not to feel a certain loss. A pang of regret. I liked Ozzy for quite a while. He seemed to have judged the speed of deficit reduction about right. In hindsight he could have gone a bit faster - but it was definitely 'in the zone'. Where he and Dave completely lost me (and probably most Tory MPs and voters) was choosing to place himself on the wrong side of history and identity. And behaving like a gimp during the referendum. He couldn't come back from that. Shame.
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
So Osborne gets his first scoop for the Evening Standard, from himself. Now he is departing the Commons will TSE throw his hat into the ring in Tatton to keep the Cameroon/Osborneite flame alive?
If Osborne really has missed the print deadline, TSE should apply to be editor instead.
Does anyone think that the election being in June (and outside most university term times) could have an impact on reducing lib dem areas of support like in Oxford East?
Yet again, it is worth looking at the Council.
The LibDems have been steadily falling back, and it is now 34 Labour councillors to 8 LibDems, with the LibDems mainly in leafy Somertown and Wolvercote in Oxford West. They once controlled the Council.
Smith may have gone, but this is still a Labour hold.
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
Mr. W, it isn't for broadcasters to dictate the campaigning style or schedule of politicians.
I was in favour of the first debates, but they were so horrendous (and the worm wide open to groupthink or infiltration) I've completely gone off them.
Poor TSE. I genuinely feel a bit of empathy for him. He had a political hero / mentor. Someone who helped and was nice to him. A big beast. Who's now gone. Hard not to feel a certain loss. A pang of regret. I liked Ozzy for quite a while. He seemed to have judged the speed of deficit reduction about right. In hindsight he could have gone a bit faster - but it was definitely 'in the zone'. Where he and Dave completely lost me (and probably most Tory MPs and voters) was choosing to place himself on the wrong side of history and identity. And behaving like a gimp during the referendum. He couldn't come back from that. Shame.
TSE: What have I done?
Darth Gideon (aka Chancellor Osborne): You are fulfilling your destiny, TSE. Become my apprentice. Learn to use the Daft Side of the Force. There's no turning back now.
TSE: I will do whatever you ask. Just help me save Theresa's political career. I can't live without her. If she resigns, I don't know what I will do.
Darth Gideon: To cheat political osbcurity is a power only one has achieved through centuries of the study of the Force. But if we work together, I know we can discover the secret to eternal AV Threads!
TSE: I pledge myself to your teachings. To the ways of the REMAIN Campaign.
Darth Gideon: Good. Good! The Force is strong with you, TSE. A powerful REMAINER you will become. Henceforth, you shall be known as Darth... Eagles.
Any absolute conviction from you on whether she'll attend?!
She has said no, and we can take her at her word, right?
I can say Nige won't be there
I presume Prof Paul Nutall, noticed academic and former professional footballer will be there, unless he is double booked with a neuro-science lecture or coaching session with Everton U23's.
My fear is that the Lib Dems will have the same experience as UKIP in 2015, lots of votes and motivated voters all over the country, not a lot of seats to show for it, and lots of moaning about the electoral system as a result (justified imo)
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.
And there is a risk that good local election results might tempt the LibDems to target quite wide for the General.
Very true. The Lib Dems usually poll around 3-4% better for local elections than GEs. So if they do take an NEV of 16% on May 4 (which they should), the risk is that enthusiasm about an election surge could lead them to reading the figures directly across and thinking that they're on course to double their vote.
I would expect an NEV for the libs of 20-21% at the locals.
Comments
#presitrack 19/04
EM 23% (=)
MLP 22% (=)
FF 20% (=)
JLM 19% (=)
BH 8% (=)
Just rejoice at that news
Right I'm out of here for a while.
Should have switched doors.
1. His support is soft. Other candidates - Le Pen and Fillon in particular - have a higher proportion of certain voters.
2. No tested party machine behind him.
3. Close four-way campaign produces no benefit to tactical voting so being the least offensive in the first round is little advantage.
4. His support has been drifting over the last fortnight.
Considering that he should beat anyone in the second round and that he's still a few points clear of third, I reckon he should be about 1.7.
She'll be parking her tanks on LibDem pot-holes next!
But normally the election is 4-5 years after the last one, so news of retirements drip out after the halfway mark of the Parliament. This time, it's all a big surprise, so the news is coming at once.
That said, it would not be a shock to see more Labour retirements this time. Someone like Tom Blenkinsop, for example, would be incredibly unlikely to go in more normal times.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
A bet against him is basically a bet that all the round one opinion polls are wrong and wrong against him (given he cleans up in round two). Not impossible by any means, but surely that doesn't justify him being odds against.
On the other hand, it's Sturgeon who made that first made (progressive alliance, wibble wibble). I think it helps the Lib Dems most. Gets them tactical votes, but people are, I would guess, less likely to lend a vote to Corbynite Labour.
Titus Manlius Torquatus was sent away by his father, largely because of a speech impediment.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/benevolent-dictators.html
Not sure Farron's quite in the same league, though...
I may have misread it but I think you put up a post earlier suggesting that you were going to be putting some money on the LibDems on more than 20 seats. I know you had a good race at the F1 this last weekend, but I urge caution. There is only so much character-building that a young man can take.
Firstly, such a result would wipe out the current Conservative majority and require it be built afresh from seats taken from Labour. A possible outcome to be sure but not one, I feel, that Mrs. May would gamble on, and she has better sources of information than we do.
Secondly 20 seats is the lower bound of a prediction of a poster on here who, with the exception of the Oscars, has never been correct, at least if he has it was not for the reasons he gave at the time. You will be betting on the side of the chap that foretold that the run on Northern Rock was a bit of stupidity by thick people which would be forgotten by Friday. A fellow who in PB parlance has had the affectionate appellation "damus" added to his name in honour of the number of times he has been proved wrong.
I am not someone who would discourage a young man from the joys of gambling, what he can afford to lose. However, if you are going to bet on the LIBDems more than doubling the number of seats held may I respectfully suggest that you also take out a hedge?
(Over thirty years ago)
So.... the political career is over for many MPs. Those who can't face a decade of hard work to rebuild a remainy, progressive, statist, lefty 'I know better' worldview... (and that is going to be awful hard in a world where we simply can't borrow forever and financial discipline is an entry ticket to being electable).
only bet what you can afford to lose.
I think the Lib Dems will get to the high teens or maybe twenties, but it is possible they'll do better.
Edited extra bit: following your post, just checked. The odds have tumbled from 8 to 5.5, odds for 10-19 and 20-29 have lengthened. Now evens or ahead if they're 10-39.
Conservative target number 49.
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-shifting-sands-of-2017/article18072104.ece
Nasty bitter little man.
When Jeremy had just 34, with only 10 seconds to go, it was Andrew who popped up & signed to make up the quorum.
Nothing he has done in his political career is likely to have more consequences.
There is a 1.83 (either side) 28.5 under/over Lib Dem seat market on Ladbrokes, but I'd put tiny stakes on the 10-19 and 20-29 bands before I saw it.
Total exposure is still less than one regular F1 stake.
What're the odds on your tip?
He had a political hero / mentor. Someone who helped and was nice to him. A big beast. Who's now gone. Hard not to feel a certain loss. A pang of regret.
I liked Ozzy for quite a while. He seemed to have judged the speed of deficit reduction about right. In hindsight he could have gone a bit faster - but it was definitely 'in the zone'. Where he and Dave completely lost me (and probably most Tory MPs and voters) was choosing to place himself on the wrong side of history and identity. And behaving like a gimp during the referendum. He couldn't come back from that. Shame.
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/18/uk-skills-crisis-young-workers-struggle-reading-maths/
The LibDems have been steadily falling back, and it is now 34 Labour councillors to 8 LibDems, with the LibDems mainly in leafy Somertown and Wolvercote in Oxford West. They once controlled the Council.
Smith may have gone, but this is still a Labour hold.
I can say Nige won't be there
Good.
Over to the Beeb and Sky.
ex SNP Mp collapses.
I was in favour of the first debates, but they were so horrendous (and the worm wide open to groupthink or infiltration) I've completely gone off them.
Darth Gideon (aka Chancellor Osborne): You are fulfilling your destiny, TSE. Become my apprentice. Learn to use the Daft Side of the Force. There's no turning back now.
TSE: I will do whatever you ask. Just help me save Theresa's political career. I can't live without her. If she resigns, I don't know what I will do.
Darth Gideon: To cheat political osbcurity is a power only one has achieved through centuries of the study of the Force. But if we work together, I know we can discover the secret to eternal AV Threads!
TSE: I pledge myself to your teachings. To the ways of the REMAIN Campaign.
Darth Gideon: Good. Good! The Force is strong with you, TSE. A powerful REMAINER you will become. Henceforth, you shall be known as Darth... Eagles.
TSE: Thank you... my Master.
Darth Gideon: Lord Eagles... rise.
So do they go for it or concentrate on Conservative Oxford West.
As AM says there's going to be lots of decisions about where to target resources.
osborne.jobs--
More seriously, I thought Tories didn't use any of these companies, instead relying on Textor.
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/854667024705957890