East Lothian looks interesting to me. The result in 2015 was SNP 42.5%, Lab 31.0%, Con 19.5%. If you apply the latest Scottish opinion polls you get something like SNP 39%, Con 32%, Lab 21%. Tories within striking distance.
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.
Im pretty sure Jo Swinson wants her seat back and will be the Lib Dem candidate
Everyone I know who's met Jo has been extremely impressed with her. But. I simply don't see the LibDem strength in East Dumbartonshire. My guess is that Jo will end up in the low 30s, against 40 odd for the SNP.
It'll be an interesting contest, for sure. The seat was first out of 650 for highest turnout in 2015, which shows the ground game both LDs and Nats played last time. As a straight re-match between the two of them, the 20% of the vote that the Tories and Labour got between them is surely going to come under pressure, which will work in Jo's favour.
But the Tories are surging - they got 15.5% in 2010 and 16.5% in 2005. They clearly leant their vote to LD as anti-SNP tactical votes. Are they really going to want to miss out on the glorious Scon revolution?
Who would ever have bet on Dumbarton East having the highest turnout of any UK seat? Discount the ground game at your peril.
Besides, SNP activists have tons of seats to defend. Scotland's growing LD membership won't be taking the ferry to O&S; where else are they going to go?
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.
He was in parliament for ten years, and in politics for twenty-one. He's fifty now.
Perhaps the wider opportunities outside parliament have become clear to him in the last couple of years. What would coming back offer him? He'll have to try and raise the Labour party from its present moribund state to a winning party again, and do so without much of the party apparatus he wielded with Brown's influence.
Would he really want that? It's a heck of a load of hassle, and a serious gamble. If he wins then he'll be a hero of the left; if he fails then he furthers Labour's decline and writes another inglorious footnote into its history.
Blair was 40 when he became opposition leader, and 44 when he became PM. Cameron was 39 when he became LOTO and 44 when he became PM (from memory, might be wrong). The next Labour PM will be from a similar age range IMO, and might not yet even be in parliament. That's how far they've descended.
East Lothian looks interesting to me. The result in 2015 was SNP 42.5%, Lab 31.0%, Con 19.5%. If you apply the latest Scottish opinion polls you get something like SNP 39%, Con 32%, Lab 21%. Tories within striking distance.
Yes, the Nats were only 8/15 to gain that (from Lab) in the first place. There are plenty of 3rd place gains possible for the Tories - but can they unravel the vote?
Small wonder that Laddies have chopped their LibDem 30 - 39 seat band odds back from 8/1 to 9/2. Might be worth a bit of insurance at 12/1 on their 40 - 49 seat band, but then again perhaps not.
Btw Hills are offering odds of 10/11 either way on the GE turnout being over or under 63%. Any thoughts anyone?
Betfair's "LibDem 19 seats or more" at 1.29 looks like good value.
Really? I've stuck another £100 there if you want it (it wasn't my money originally).
I have taken half of it; I had a reasonable position already.
Off to a decent start with the various wacky races lines on this one.
It's situations like this where an aggregation service that automatically placed bets at the various bookmakers to even out all the different markets without you having to do the maths would be useful.
East Lothian looks interesting to me. The result in 2015 was SNP 42.5%, Lab 31.0%, Con 19.5%. If you apply the latest Scottish opinion polls you get something like SNP 39%, Con 32%, Lab 21%. Tories within striking distance.
Yes, the Nats were only 8/15 to gain that (from Lab) in the first place. There are plenty of 3rd place gains possible for the Tories - but can they unravel the vote?
In the current climate I think the STories are going to struggle to win tactical votes from Labour and the LibDems.
Where does this notion that Parliament will be dissolved on 3rd May come from? Section 3 (1) of the FTP Act says "The Parliament then in existence dissolves at the beginning of the 17th working day before the polling day for the next parliamentary general election as determined under section 2 (7)". That would be the 15th May
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
It's also politically sensible, looking a long way down the line. As well as giving freedom to manoeuvre to events, she'll also be hoping that the Tories can go into the 2022 election being able to say 'trust us' on the basis of delivery made without the constraints of election pledges.
East Lothian looks interesting to me. The result in 2015 was SNP 42.5%, Lab 31.0%, Con 19.5%. If you apply the latest Scottish opinion polls you get something like SNP 39%, Con 32%, Lab 21%. Tories within striking distance.
Yes, the Nats were only 8/15 to gain that (from Lab) in the first place. There are plenty of 3rd place gains possible for the Tories - but can they unravel the vote?
In the current climate I think the STories are going to struggle to win tactical votes from Labour and the LibDems.
It'll be up to Ruth, won't it? The politics of Scotland is trending towards SNP vs Con - that's the logic of the existential question coupled with FPTP.
Where does this notion that Parliament will be dissolved on 3rd May come from? Section 3 (1) of the FTP Act says "The Parliament then in existence dissolved at the beginning of the 17th working day before the polling day for the next parliamentary general election as determined under section 2 (7)". That would be the 15th May
It has since been amended to 25 days by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
It's also politically sensible, looking a long way down the line.
I think she's looking a few weeks down the line to the financial negotiations with the EU. Cutting the DfID budget will give her political capital to agree to ongoing budgetary contributions.
The Tories should stand against him - they're practically at war anyway, nothing left to lose, then get in a sensible and respect Labour MP as speaker.
Where does this notion that Parliament will be dissolved on 3rd May come from? Section 3 (1) of the FTP Act says "The Parliament then in existence dissolved at the beginning of the 17th working day before the polling day for the next parliamentary general election as determined under section 2 (7)". That would be the 15th May
It has since been amended to 25 days by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
It's also politically sensible, looking a long way down the line.
I think she's looking a few weeks down the line to the financial negotiations with the EU. Cutting the DfID budget will give her political capital to agree to ongoing budgetary contributions.
Being cynical her best move regarding the DfiD budget is not to promise to stick to the UN target for the manifesto and then to actually stick to it afterwards.
Edinburgh South: 2015 result — Lab 39%, SNP 34%, Con 17.5%. Applying latest Scottish polls gives something like SNP 31%, Con 30%, Lab 29%. But the SNP are probably not doing as well in this constituency as the average across Scotland.
The Tories should stand against him - they're practically at war anyway, nothing left to lose, then get in a sensible and respect Labour MP as speaker.
Get in a what?
I thought half the problem was there aren't sensible respected Labour MPs
Where does this notion that Parliament will be dissolved on 3rd May come from? Section 3 (1) of the FTP Act says "The Parliament then in existence dissolved at the beginning of the 17th working day before the polling day for the next parliamentary general election as determined under section 2 (7)". That would be the 15th May
It has since been amended to 25 days by the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013
Ta. I was looking at the as enacted version.
No problem, I made the same mistake a few weeks ago!
> BREXIT > Mental health > NHS (money from Brexit) > Grammars > Home ownership > Childcare > Union - sweeteners for Scotland/Wales/NI > Industrial strategy > Education/skills strategy > Immigration pledge
To be mentioned..
> New deficit plan > Social care (elderly) > Defence > Something on rights/human rights (wild card)
Long grass..
> Hunting repeal > 40p tax cuts > International Aid promise > Further inheritance tax cuts
What does 'Home ownership' mean? Osborne's futile attempts to puff up an already inflated market by subsidising people buying in at the bottom will simply make the coming collapse worse.
So farewell then, Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. You will be sorely missed.
Not.
Why would we, the people, want to gift any PM the ability to manipulate events, and the timetable, to their own party's political self-interest?
For all we know the next recession is about to hit in 2018. Then we can all repent at leisure.
It looks as though the PM retains that power.
It might, but she doesn't. Like Brexit, we might end up doing the same thing, but in a different way. Parliament made the call. At her behest, and the argument is politically it would be hard to say no (but not impossible), but still it was Parliament's call, and I personally find that an important distinction.
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
It's also politically sensible, looking a long way down the line.
I think she's looking a few weeks down the line to the financial negotiations with the EU. Cutting the DfID budget will give her political capital to agree to ongoing budgetary contributions.
Yes. The impressive thing is that DFID budget lasted so long... Credit to Cameron for that.
Edinburgh South: 2015 result — Lab 39%, SNP 34%, Con 17.5%. Applying latest Scottish polls gives something like SNP 31%, Con 30%, Lab 29%. But the SNP are probably not doing as well in this constituency as the average across Scotland.
Tasty. Please please let there be an atypical LD surge there too, for a juicy four way.
Oh.. a whipping on HoL reform as well, is possible. Major wildcard.
May doesn't like to be thwarted and, if there is to be constitutional change to reflect Brexit, what better time than during the Brexit transition period?
It will be rejected twice, probably in the 2019 and 2020 parliamentary sessions, and then Parliament Acted.
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
It's also politically sensible, looking a long way down the line.
I think she's looking a few weeks down the line to the financial negotiations with the EU. Cutting the DfID budget will give her political capital to agree to ongoing budgetary contributions.
Being cynical her best move regarding the DfiD budget is not to promise to stick to the UN target for the manifesto and then to actually stick to it afterwards.
Gobshite. We do not need to waste this money. I can think of a dozen better homes for £13bn. Starting with deficit reduction.
The results on election night should be faster than usual because they won't have to separate out any local election ballots for the first time since I think 1992.
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
off topic and perhaps unsayable, but it irritates me greatly when we get these public funding appeals (eg. Red Nose Day, some of the DECC appeals). What on earth is the 0.7% for if not precisely that?!
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
she would be mad to end the triple lock
Not so, Mr. Root. All of the pensioners that I know are more concerned about the future of their children and grandchildren than they are about themselves. The triple lock was introduced to avoid the Gordon Brown 75p increase type of headline at a time of low inflation. It is an unaffordable nonsense that most pensioners would be content to be consigned to the scrap-heap of silly political games.
Take free bus passes away and then there might be some resistance.
East Lothian looks interesting to me. The result in 2015 was SNP 42.5%, Lab 31.0%, Con 19.5%. If you apply the latest Scottish opinion polls you get something like SNP 39%, Con 32%, Lab 21%. Tories within striking distance.
Yes, the Nats were only 8/15 to gain that (from Lab) in the first place. There are plenty of 3rd place gains possible for the Tories - but can they unravel the vote?
In the current climate I think the STories are going to struggle to win tactical votes from Labour and the LibDems.
It'll be up to Ruth, won't it? The politics of Scotland is trending towards SNP vs Con - that's the logic of the existential question coupled with FPTP.
I could envisage SCON folks voting tactically against SNP - SLAB/SLID support each other but not SCON.
The results on election night should be faster than usual because they won't have to separate out any local election ballots for the first time since I think 1992.
But there will probably be a bigger turnout than any general since 1992 so more votes to count?
The results on election night should be faster than usual because they won't have to separate out any local election ballots for the first time since I think 1992.
But there will probably be a bigger turnout than any general since 1992 so more votes to count?
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
It's also politically sensible, looking a long way down the line.
I think she's looking a few weeks down the line to the financial negotiations with the EU. Cutting the DfID budget will give her political capital to agree to ongoing budgetary contributions.
Being cynical her best move regarding the DfiD budget is not to promise to stick to the UN target for the manifesto and then to actually stick to it afterwards.
Gobshite. We do not need to waste this money. I can think of a dozen better homes for £13bn. Starting with deficit reduction.
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
off topic and perhaps unsayable, but it irritates me greatly when we get these public funding appeals (eg. Red Nose Day, some of the DECC appeals). What on earth is the 0.7% for if not precisely that?!
Oh.. a whipping on HoL reform as well, is possible. Major wildcard.
May doesn't like to be thwarted and, if there is to be constitutional change to reflect Brexit, what better time than during the Brexit transition period?
It will be rejected twice, probably in the 2019 and 2020 parliamentary sessions, and then Parliament Acted.
Yes, probably. Vindictive too, since she wasn't thwarted at all and the Lords did their job, made suggested legislative changes, and then passed it unamended when the Commons sent it back.
May seems to be a score settler, but Lords reform should not be done as such a reaction, drafted on the back of a fag packet. But she made sure to mention unelected lords opposing her (emphasis on the unelected, which should mean she wants to abolish the lot)
If she wants quick and justifiable reform, I'd repeat from yesterday a good starting point would be to immediately retire from the House those who have not contributed X number of times in the last 2 years and ban someone from being made a member of the house if they have held elected office in the past 7 years. At a stroke removes those using it as a cushy retirement and parachuting the recently defenstrated into positions of power.
Commiserations to TSE about Osborne. He was not very likeable, but he seemed a capable sort who could have offered more to parliament. But making money and editing papers is probably more fulfilling and certainly more lucrative work when backbench work beckons.
The results on election night should be faster than usual because they won't have to separate out any local election ballots for the first time since I think 1992.
But there will probably be a bigger turnout than any general since 1992 so more votes to count?
Could May beat Major's record?
Not sure but I do think turnout will be massive for this one despite the media narrative that everyone is fed up about it (which they probably are but that won't matter on polling day itself) because there will be so much at stake this time.
The results on election night should be faster than usual because they won't have to separate out any local election ballots for the first time since I think 1992.
But there will probably be a bigger turnout than any general since 1992 so more votes to count?
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
off topic and perhaps unsayable, but it irritates me greatly when we get these public funding appeals (eg. Red Nose Day, some of the DECC appeals). What on earth is the 0.7% for if not precisely that?!
I ignore Red Nose Day.
And Lenny Henry in general.
He's turned into quite a decent actor. But yes, I ignore all TV appeals for overseas stuff that treats the entire continent of Africa like a stupid child. The aid budget should be for disaster relief, whether natural or human-induced.
Edinburgh South: 2015 result — Lab 39%, SNP 34%, Con 17.5%. Applying latest Scottish polls gives something like SNP 31%, Con 30%, Lab 29%. But the SNP are probably not doing as well in this constituency as the average across Scotland.
Tasty. Please please let there be an atypical LD surge there too, for a juicy four way.
But the SNP had a very deflated 2015 result because of their unsuitable candidate (I forget the details, but Ian Murray was a very lucky man).
> BREXIT > Mental health > NHS (money from Brexit) > Grammars > Home ownership > Childcare > Union - sweeteners for Scotland/Wales/NI > Industrial strategy > Education/skills strategy > Immigration pledge
To be mentioned..
> New deficit plan > Social care (elderly) > Defence > Something on rights/human rights (wild card)
Long grass..
> Hunting repeal > 40p tax cuts > International Aid promise > Further inheritance tax cuts
What does 'Home ownership' mean? Osborne's futile attempts to puff up an already inflated market by subsidising people buying in at the bottom will simply make the coming collapse worse.
Bugger the NIMBIES. Build, build, build. Mitigated by migration control, and possibly taxing foreign investors in property more.
In this, there isn't much difference between her and Osborne, actually.
The results on election night should be faster than usual because they won't have to separate out any local election ballots for the first time since I think 1992.
But there will probably be a bigger turnout than any general since 1992 so more votes to count?
A lot of pundits are saying they think turnout could be down on last time.
East Lothian looks interesting to me. The result in 2015 was SNP 42.5%, Lab 31.0%, Con 19.5%. If you apply the latest Scottish opinion polls you get something like SNP 39%, Con 32%, Lab 21%. Tories within striking distance.
Yes, the Nats were only 8/15 to gain that (from Lab) in the first place. There are plenty of 3rd place gains possible for the Tories - but can they unravel the vote?
In the current climate I think the STories are going to struggle to win tactical votes from Labour and the LibDems.
It'll be up to Ruth, won't it? The politics of Scotland is trending towards SNP vs Con - that's the logic of the existential question coupled with FPTP.
I could envisage SCON folks voting tactically against SNP - SLAB/SLID support each other but not SCON.
SLab are really down to bedrock support now - people who could never stomach voting Tory even tactically.
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
off topic and perhaps unsayable, but it irritates me greatly when we get these public funding appeals (eg. Red Nose Day, some of the DECC appeals). What on earth is the 0.7% for if not precisely that?!
I ignore Red Nose Day.
And Lenny Henry in general.
He's turned into quite a decent actor. But yes, I ignore all TV appeals for overseas stuff that treats the entire continent of Africa like a stupid child. The aid budget should be for disaster relief, whether natural or human-induced.
Yes - but part of FCO and massively smaller. DfiD should just be closed down. It's an expensive and wasteful boondoggle. If May proposed this it would be seriously popular.
Edinburgh South: 2015 result — Lab 39%, SNP 34%, Con 17.5%. Applying latest Scottish polls gives something like SNP 31%, Con 30%, Lab 29%. But the SNP are probably not doing as well in this constituency as the average across Scotland.
Tasty. Please please let there be an atypical LD surge there too, for a juicy four way.
But the SNP had a very deflated 2015 result because of their unsuitable candidate (I forget the details, but Ian Murray was a very lucky man).
I recall chatter to that effect. Oh well. Any ideas where the tightest contests are expected to be? Presumably somewhere that was traditionally a Lab/LD contest with a solid Tory finish.
Fantastic! I'd heard he wasn't. Go for Speaker, Ken!
If he went to Speaker he'd not be able to spend the next five years whining about Brexit, bitching abut his Party and undermining Theresa at every turn.
The results on election night should be faster than usual because they won't have to separate out any local election ballots for the first time since I think 1992.
But there will probably be a bigger turnout than any general since 1992 so more votes to count?
A lot of pundits are saying they think turnout could be down on last time.
Even discounting the idea of voter fatigue, you'd have to think the Lab vote would be down quite a bit for starters. Low 60s I'm calling it.
So farewell then, Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. You will be sorely missed.
Not.
Why would we, the people, want to gift any PM the ability to manipulate events, and the timetable, to their own party's political self-interest?
For all we know the next recession is about to hit in 2018. Then we can all repent at leisure.
It looks as though the PM retains that power.
It might, but she doesn't. Like Brexit, we might end up doing the same thing, but in a different way. Parliament made the call. At her behest, and the argument is politically it would be hard to say no (but not impossible), but still it was Parliament's call, and I personally find that an important distinction.
It would have been quite easy to say no if Corbyn had laid down that line from the beginning. But it's one thing knowing that you're in a group of 200 and that there won't be an election for 3 years; it's another to think that you might be in a small group of rebels and will be held to account in 7 weeks.
The optics aren't great but 'we had an election and you have a majority' is not a bad argument.
> BREXIT > Mental health > NHS (money from Brexit) > Grammars > Home ownership > Childcare > Union - sweeteners for Scotland/Wales/NI > Industrial strategy > Education/skills strategy > Immigration pledge
To be mentioned..
> New deficit plan > Social care (elderly) > Defence > Something on rights/human rights (wild card)
Long grass..
> Hunting repeal > 40p tax cuts > International Aid promise > Further inheritance tax cuts
What does 'Home ownership' mean? Osborne's futile attempts to puff up an already inflated market by subsidising people buying in at the bottom will simply make the coming collapse worse.
Bugger the NIMBIES. Build, build, build. Mitigated by migration control, and possibly taxing foreign investors in property more.
In this, there isn't much difference between her and Osborne, actually.
This. Build.
I've said it before but the fact is there's an undeniable correlation between home ownership and voting Conservative.
If nobody under the age of 30 can afford to buy a house, those people will eventually become renters in their 40s and 50s and they will vote, in their droves, against the Tories. A demographic timebomb that could be solved with one simple policy: build, build, build.
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
I think that's being fiscally sensible.
It's also politically sensible, looking a long way down the line.
I think she's looking a few weeks down the line to the financial negotiations with the EU. Cutting the DfID budget will give her political capital to agree to ongoing budgetary contributions.
Being cynical her best move regarding the DfiD budget is not to promise to stick to the UN target for the manifesto and then to actually stick to it afterwards.
Gobshite. We do not need to waste this money. I can think of a dozen better homes for £13bn. Starting with deficit reduction.
That simply demonstrates a lack of understanding about the real good much of that spending achieves and about the payback the UK gets both commercially and by enhancing our soft power and influence. Haven't you been paying attention whilst "scrap the budget" Pritti Patel works her way up the learning curve?
Fantastic! I'd heard he wasn't. Go for Speaker, Ken!
If he went to Speaker he'd not be able to spend the next five years whining about Brexit, bitching abut his Party and undermining Theresa at every turn. .
He could do the last one, though that is not a plus of course.
But he is immensely experienced in government and opposition, government party but not a party robot, and knowledgable about the procedures of the House.
It may be he would prefer to sit on the backbenches and cause May issues. But on the face of it seems like he would be a good fit for Speaker, though I feel like it's Labour's turn.
The results on election night should be faster than usual because they won't have to separate out any local election ballots for the first time since I think 1992.
But there will probably be a bigger turnout than any general since 1992 so more votes to count?
A lot of pundits are saying they think turnout could be down on last time.
Even discounting the idea of voter fatigue, you'd have to think the Lab vote would be down quite a bit for starters. Low 60s I'm calling it.
As I said yesterday, we're going to see massive differential turnout. Labour nowhere. Others very enthusiastic. Look at the total votes cast per party. I expect records at both ends.
The Tories should stand against him - they're practically at war anyway, nothing left to lose, then get in a sensible and respect Labour MP as speaker.
Get in a what?
I thought half the problem was there aren't sensible respected Labour MPs
Lindsay Hoyle would be fine. Unfortunately (for this scenario), he could well lose his seat.
Daily Mail reporting that the £13bn DfiD spend is not going to survive in the Tory manifesto. Yay!
Triple lock to go too, and pledges on NI and income tax according to the Times this AM.
May is going all Erdogan. She wants complete authority to sell her pig in a poke.
she would be mad to end the triple lock
Not so, Mr. Root. All of the pensioners that I know are more concerned about the future of their children and grandchildren than they are about themselves. The triple lock was introduced to avoid the Gordon Brown 75p increase type of headline at a time of low inflation. It is an unaffordable nonsense that most pensioners would be content to be consigned to the scrap-heap of silly political games.
Take free bus passes away and then there might be some resistance.
They certainly say they care about helping their grandchildren. When it comes down to it though i think they are just as self interested as any other group.
I'd be interested to see polling - suspect pensioners do support the triple lock. It would be strange for politicians to be so keen on an unpopular, expensive policy!
Round where you live the opposition to new housing is pretty fierce. Even though it would help young people get a place of their own.
Oh.. a whipping on HoL reform as well, is possible. Major wildcard.
May doesn't like to be thwarted and, if there is to be constitutional change to reflect Brexit, what better time than during the Brexit transition period?
It will be rejected twice, probably in the 2019 and 2020 parliamentary sessions, and then Parliament Acted.
Yes, probably. Vindictive too, since she wasn't thwarted at all and the Lords did their job, made suggested legislative changes, and then passed it unamended when the Commons sent it back.
May seems to be a score settler, but Lords reform should not be done as such a reaction, drafted on the back of a fag packet. But she made sure to mention unelected lords opposing her (emphasis on the unelected, which should mean she wants to abolish the lot)
If she wants quick and justifiable reform, I'd repeat from yesterday a good starting point would be to immediately retire from the House those who have not contributed X number of times in the last 2 years and ban someone from being made a member of the house if they have held elected office in the past 7 years. At a stroke removes those using it as a cushy retirement and parachuting the recently defenstrated into positions of power.
Commiserations to TSE about Osborne. He was not very likeable, but he seemed a capable sort who could have offered more to parliament. But making money and editing papers is probably more fulfilling and certainly more lucrative work when backbench work beckons.
Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ Academics respond to early election "I'd got 6 chapters of my Lib Dem book & now she's called a f**** election" "F*** marking" "Kill me now"
Fantastic! I'd heard he wasn't. Go for Speaker, Ken!
If he went to Speaker he'd not be able to spend the next five years whining about Brexit, bitching abut his Party and undermining Theresa at every turn. .
He could do the last one, though that is not a plus of course.
But he is immensely experienced in government and opposition, government party but not a party robot, and knowledgable about the procedures of the House.
It may be he would prefer to sit on the backbenches and cause May issues. But on the face of it seems like he would be a good fit for Speaker, though I feel like it's Labour's turn.
No, he realises that another four years is a much more attractive and do-able prospect than another 3+5 = 8 years, and fancies himself as the lone voice of Conservative sanity (OK him and Anna) in the Commons whilst his party goes all fruitcake around him. What a legacy!
Comments
I think it removes the De Jure, but not the De Facto power. A distinction I missed in my betting...
Besides, SNP activists have tons of seats to defend. Scotland's growing LD membership won't be taking the ferry to O&S; where else are they going to go?
Perhaps the wider opportunities outside parliament have become clear to him in the last couple of years. What would coming back offer him? He'll have to try and raise the Labour party from its present moribund state to a winning party again, and do so without much of the party apparatus he wielded with Brown's influence.
Would he really want that? It's a heck of a load of hassle, and a serious gamble. If he wins then he'll be a hero of the left; if he fails then he furthers Labour's decline and writes another inglorious footnote into its history.
Blair was 40 when he became opposition leader, and 44 when he became PM. Cameron was 39 when he became LOTO and 44 when he became PM (from memory, might be wrong). The next Labour PM will be from a similar age range IMO, and might not yet even be in parliament. That's how far they've descended.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/john-bercow-reveals-he-will-seek-another-term-as-speaker-a3517886.html
For all we know the next recession is about to hit in 2018. Then we can all repent at leisure.
Ronnie Campbell
Ann Clwyd
Paul Farrelly
Jim Fitzpatrick
Clive Lewis
Fional Mactaggart
Liz McInnes
Dennis Skinner
Graham Stringer
SDLP
Alasdair McDonnell
Independent
Lady Hermon
Natalie McGarry
Michelle Thomson
Emphasis..
> BREXIT
> Mental health
> NHS (money from Brexit)
> Grammars
> Home ownership
> Childcare
> Union - sweeteners for Scotland/Wales/NI
> Industrial strategy
> Education/skills strategy
> Immigration pledge
To be mentioned..
> New deficit plan
> Social care (elderly)
> Defence
> Something on rights/human rights (wild card)
Long grass..
> Hunting repeal
> 40p tax cuts
> International Aid promise
> Further inheritance tax cuts
I thought half the problem was there aren't sensible respected Labour MPs
Wish I'd backed him when he was 20-30, but there we are.
May doesn't like to be thwarted and, if there is to be constitutional change to reflect Brexit, what better time than during the Brexit transition period?
It will be rejected twice, probably in the 2019 and 2020 parliamentary sessions, and then Parliament Acted.
And Lenny Henry in general.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2017-04-19/ken-clarke-will-stand-for-election-again/
Take free bus passes away and then there might be some resistance.
May seems to be a score settler, but Lords reform should not be done as such a reaction, drafted on the back of a fag packet. But she made sure to mention unelected lords opposing her (emphasis on the unelected, which should mean she wants to abolish the lot)
If she wants quick and justifiable reform, I'd repeat from yesterday a good starting point would be to immediately retire from the House those who have not contributed X number of times in the last 2 years and ban someone from being made a member of the house if they have held elected office in the past 7 years. At a stroke removes those using it as a cushy retirement and parachuting the recently defenstrated into positions of power.
Commiserations to TSE about Osborne. He was not very likeable, but he seemed a capable sort who could have offered more to parliament. But making money and editing papers is probably more fulfilling and certainly more lucrative work when backbench work beckons.
It was part of her Remain pitch prior to the vote last year.
But, it will be a post-Brexit thing.
https://twitter.com/davidottewell/status/854332692950900737
Might not bode well for Labour.
63%+ still available at 5-6.
In this, there isn't much difference between her and Osborne, actually.
Same with the Moggster (only reversed)
Neither should be Speaker.
The optics aren't great but 'we had an election and you have a majority' is not a bad argument.
I've said it before but the fact is there's an undeniable correlation between home ownership and voting Conservative.
If nobody under the age of 30 can afford to buy a house, those people will eventually become renters in their 40s and 50s and they will vote, in their droves, against the Tories. A demographic timebomb that could be solved with one simple policy: build, build, build.
But he is immensely experienced in government and opposition, government party but not a party robot, and knowledgable about the procedures of the House.
It may be he would prefer to sit on the backbenches and cause May issues. But on the face of it seems like he would be a good fit for Speaker, though I feel like it's Labour's turn.
When it comes down to it though i think they are just as self interested as any other group.
I'd be interested to see polling - suspect pensioners do support the triple lock. It would be strange for politicians to be so keen on an unpopular, expensive policy!
Round where you live the opposition to new housing is pretty fierce. Even though it would help young people get a place of their own.
Academics respond to early election
"I'd got 6 chapters of my Lib Dem book & now she's called a f**** election"
"F*** marking"
"Kill me now"
Building can happen in stupid places. Flood prone areas, or places where the infrastructure can't cope with an increased population.
I do agree more building is a good thing, and a necessary thing, but it must be done sensibly.