Can you vote Tory this time round Sunil, I'm on overs with Paddy and every little helps. Will let you know if you need to change your vote at any point.
Listening to Frit labour MPs tying themselves in knots trying to explain why they're not voting for an election is a delicious backdrop to a boring afternoon's work....
Many posts (such as the one quoted by Alastair Meeks above) are entirely blank on my screen. When I myself quote them, as I am doing now, I can see it seems to be cut and pastes from twitter, although I still can't read anything useful - this one has a twitter URL with an 18 digit number at the end...so I have no idea what seat is tory target #49
Why don't they show up on my PC? Using IE, since work have bizarrely blocked us from using Chrome. Is IE just rubbish?
Edit: and after posting it goes back to being blank except for the words "Conservative target number 49."
There's JavaScript that is used on the web page to automatically expand Twitter comments. If that script is blocked from running for some reason (or the original Tweet is deleted), then they just go blank.
Most likely is your work blocks twitter access, so the content of the link can't be rendered.
The former Tory MP today announced his intention to (seek to) stand again. Wes has a fight on his hands.
Looks like Ilford North can't really lose, they're both excellent choices.
Wes is going to struggle to defend his party's platform and leader, given his on-the-record outspoken criticism. The record of the council administration he is still a part of won't help him either.
Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
Very long odds...Labour City of London electing an unpopular Tory Toff...Ain't gonna happen.
Bojo Johnson?
I said unpopular Tory Toff...Osborne has never been popular with the public. On the other hand, BoJo for whatever reason people kinda of like, sort of like a giant panda when they do something silly.
Also London is ever moving more Labour, and aren't we all a bit sick of posh boys these days...and Goldsmith....I mean really Goldsmith...
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.
Can you vote Tory this time round Sunil, I'm on overs with Paddy and every little helps. Will let you know if you need to change your vote at any point.
Don't get me wrong, I really like Johnny Mercer - and he has a huge commitment to his seat and to Plymouth. But I suspect he is looking a little forlornly at the job offer from Osborne he has in his wallet, after taking the soundings of his constituency on Brexit, being told to go Leave - and then siding with Remain. Not his finest hour.
"Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain."
"Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain."
*stifles laughter*
I think I've had my Sion Simon moment this year with the election timing !
Don't get me wrong, I really like Johnny Mercer - and he has a huge commitment to his seat and to Plymouth. But I suspect he is looking a little forlornly at the job offer from Osborne he has in his wallet, after taking the soundings of his constituency on Brexit, being told to go Leave - and then siding with Remain. Not his finest hour.
Osborne has been responsible for a lot of people's "not their finest hour" He should be appointed as Special Envoy to Buckle Island for a short while. Say 30-40 years.
It's quite difficult to assess value at this very early stage with most bookies only just starting to dip their big toes into the water. That said, it's also the time when the braver bookies, acting alone and largely on gut instinct, are more apt to make mistakes.
A bet which caught my eye just now in terms of value was betfred's 150 - 199 seat band for Labour offered at 6/4, which compares with their actual seat win of 232 in 2015. It seems unlikely to me that they will lose fewer than 33 seats overall, thereby leaving them with a maximum of 199 seats. Equally they appear unlikely to lose more than 82 seats leaving them with a minimum of 150 seats. (Btw if pushed, I'd forecast Labour to win between 180 - 190 seats.) I've had a score's worth to win £30, but DYOR.
I don't think Maguire has thought through the optics of refusing, given that the election would have happened anyway via a constructive No Con. (This is presumably why we have 7 weeks' notice rather than 5).
It's quite difficult to assess value at this very early stage with most bookies only just starting to dip their big toes into the water. That said, it's also the time when the braver bookies, acting alone and largely on gut instinct, are more apt to make mistakes.
100% this. Now is probably the best time for betting the main lines. Or you can keep your powder dry for the constituencies, which will probably be ricktastic.
"Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain."
*stifles laughter*
I think I've had my Sion Simon moment this year with the election timing !
None of us can win every time.
I got trapped in the ECVs market in November and lost hundreds, even though I was well up on Trump as Next President.
A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge) Edinburgh South (Lab held) Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's) Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge) Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Bristol West: Lab Edinburgh South: Con Edinburgh SW: SNP Heywood: Lab Norwich South: Lab
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.
The reason I've gone for a Tory gain is I just can't see the SNP winning this particular constituency. And if Labour are going to lose it, as I think they will, that means the Conservatives are the only party left.
I don't think Maguire has thought through the optics of refusing, given that the election would have happened anyway via a constructive No Con. (This is presumably why we have 7 weeks' notice rather than 5).
No no it would have been a brilliant strategy and then all Lab would have needed to do would be to send Laura Kuenssberg to visit each household in the UK to explain exactly why.
The Tories must have known that if they said no to tv debates, the tv companies would do this. They did it in 2015 after all.
The spin from them is it is now defacto standard, despite in our long democratic history we have had only really 1 election with a proper set of tv debates.
Gorton is brilliant. What will the announcement be from the returning officer? They can't declare that the winner has been returned as MP for Gorton. Parliament will be prorogued - there will be no MPs and no parliament to be returned to. Do they just shake his/her hands and wish them luck for the GE campaigning which starts the same day?
I don't think Maguire has thought through the optics of refusing, given that the election would have happened anyway via a constructive No Con.
That's exactly the point (again)
The optics of a No Con are SO MUCH BETTER for Labour than meekly traipsing through the aye lobby with the Tories.
On balance I agree with this. Labour's position is so dire the optics of parliamentary games is the least of their worries. Anything that has a chance of exposing Tory splits is worth it.
Don't get me wrong, I really like Johnny Mercer - and he has a huge commitment to his seat and to Plymouth. But I suspect he is looking a little forlornly at the job offer from Osborne he has in his wallet, after taking the soundings of his constituency on Brexit, being told to go Leave - and then siding with Remain. Not his finest hour.
Osborne has been responsible for a lot of people's "not their finest hour" He should be appointed as Special Envoy to Buckle Island for a short while. Say 30-40 years.
Yes. Probably 1/3 of the country were somewhat Eurosceptic in a non-energetic sort of way. No love for EU but fearful the exit might be alot of hassle. And then the fanatics Dave n Ozzy turned up 'getting medieval on peoples' asses' about it. Many instinctive leavers were bullied into the Remain camp. People like Sajid Javid. Osborne was a fucking disgrace during the referendum. He made the right call today. His political future died on June 23rd last year.
Gorton is brilliant. What will the announcement be from the returning officer? They can't declare that the winner has been returned as MP for Gorton. Parliament will be prorogued - there will be no MPs and no parliament to be returned to. Do they just shake his/her hands and wish them luck for the GE campaigning which starts the same day?
Returning officers are absolute sticklers for process. She'll be more clued up on this than David Davis I'd have thought.
Scotland is going to be very interesting this election. It will be about the Union as well as Brexit.
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.
Future Tory leader, I've moved from Team Osborne to Team Mercer.
On the substance of the tweet... How much of that true? Recession ended under Gordon Brown. Osborne very very nearly put us back into recession. Millions were not lifted out of poverty by coalition... (NPI report 2015)
New jobs claim is just about true... I think they just got to 2m new jobs or close enough so i guess that is millions. Parity of esteem- dont know what that means? Funding fell by 8.25% in rreal terms apparently... The airport still isn't sorted although that might be Mays fault... Don't know about the railway.
I don't think Maguire has thought through the optics of refusing, given that the election would have happened anyway via a constructive No Con.
That's exactly the point (again)
The optics of a No Con are SO MUCH BETTER for Labour than meekly traipsing through the aye lobby with the Tories.
I fundamentally disagree. They would go into the election have voted not to have it, and this would be brought up in interview after interview. "Why didn't you want this election - was it because you think you'll lose or was it because your leader is a shambles and you can't even recommend him to the public as a Prime Minister?"
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.
Gorton is brilliant. What will the announcement be from the returning officer? They can't declare that the winner has been returned as MP for Gorton. Parliament will be prorogued - there will be no MPs and no parliament to be returned to. Do they just shake his/her hands and wish them luck for the GE campaigning which starts the same day?
Returning officers are absolute sticklers for process. She'll be more clued up on this than David Davis I'd have thought.
Surely most bettors would take "void" here... the rules of the game change if it's in he middle of a GE campaign.
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Gorton is brilliant. What will the announcement be from the returning officer? They can't declare that the winner has been returned as MP for Gorton. Parliament will be prorogued - there will be no MPs and no parliament to be returned to. Do they just shake his/her hands and wish them luck for the GE campaigning which starts the same day?
Returning officers are absolute sticklers for process. She'll be more clued up on this than David Davis I'd have thought.
Surely most bettors would take "void" here... the rules of the game change if it's in he middle of a GE campaign.
Bleh, I am level green on every candidate on Betfair in both markets.
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
Given Cooper is clearly revving up to stand [check out the price movement today] I suspect there is your answer.
Scotland is going to be very interesting this election. It will be about the Union as well as Brexit.
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.
There's a lot at stake. If the SCons do not exceed exceptions, May will not be able to hold the line of using Brexit as an excuse to frustrate the SNP, and the EU will also be watching closely. Elections have consequences.
A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge) Edinburgh South (Lab held) Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's) Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge) Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Bristol West: Lab Edinburgh South: Con Edinburgh SW: SNP Heywood: Lab Norwich South: Lab
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.
The reason I've gone for a Tory gain is I just can't see the SNP winning this particular constituency. And if Labour are going to lose it, as I think they will, that means the Conservatives are the only party left.
ON current votes if Con take 5000 votes from Murray (25% of Murray's vote share) then SNP win through the middle. They'd have to get 8000 transfers from Lab for the win.
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
BRS, Edinbugh West, Fife NE. After that I'd need to check my spreadsheets.
East Dunbartonshire, East Ren are the next most vulnerable. John Nicolson has been quite high profile, would be interesting to see if Jo Swinson fancies another go at her old constituency.
The Scottish Parliament seats that make up East Dumbartonshire have not shown (big) moves to the LDs. Jo Swinson also saw her vote hold up remarkably well in 2015.
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.
Im pretty sure Jo Swinson wants her seat back and will be the Lib Dem candidate
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
I can't work out whether he's a broken reed, or a man with a plan who's waiting for the right time.
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.
I think he's +200 in my book so by all means, go ahead...
His decapitation two years ago was what convinced me to put more than pennies on the mayoralty.
Scotland is going to be very interesting this election. It will be about the Union as well as Brexit.
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.
The SNP vote share will surely fall, given that they are the incumbents, and not all their supporters voted Remain.
Nevertheless there was a fair degree of anti-SNP tactical voting last time, which probably helped the three non-SNP MPs hold on. My sense is that this may unwind this time, because the differences between the other parties are much sharper and I don't get the feeling the SNP is actively disliked.
A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge) Edinburgh South (Lab held) Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's) Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge) Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Bristol West: Lab Edinburgh South: Con Edinburgh SW: SNP Heywood: Lab Norwich South: Lab
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.
The reason I've gone for a Tory gain is I just can't see the SNP winning this particular constituency. And if Labour are going to lose it, as I think they will, that means the Conservatives are the only party left.
ON current votes if Con take 5000 votes from Murray (25% of Murray's vote share) then SNP win through the middle. They'd have to get 8000 transfers from Lab for the win.
The latest Scottish opinion polls show a swing of about 10% from Lab to Con.
Well I've just acted to ensure Ed Balls will shortly announce he is not standing in the General Election. I've backed him to be next Labour leader at 100/1.
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
Given Cooper is clearly revving up to stand [check out the price movement today] I suspect there is your answer.
T.P. Hmmm ....
Agreed, not encouraging for my bet.
She wasn't a very good candidate last time though - so hopefully wisdom will prevail.
Comments
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/854664135874838528
Though it could be close.
Can you vote Tory this time round Sunil, I'm on overs with Paddy and every little helps. Will let you know if you need to change your vote at any point.
Future Tory leader, I've moved from Team Osborne to Team Mercer.
Good afternoon, everyone.
Why did nobody else think of that...?
I'm on Team Patel
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/8864be1b-659d-4aaa-b5d9-c5d8b6d6c1f4
Also London is ever moving more Labour, and aren't we all a bit sick of posh boys these days...and Goldsmith....I mean really Goldsmith...
Does anyone know what happened to Mr. S. Simon?
Corbyn does politics right, for possibly the first and last time in his career
*stifles laughter*
Hi Nick – will you be standing in Broxtowe as an emergency 'unity' candidate? Or would rather not oppose good europhile Anna?
He should be appointed as Special Envoy to Buckle Island for a short while.
Say 30-40 years.
Surely the SNP vote will largely stand still and the question will be whether or not the voters can work out what to do (or whether they want to!)
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/854684071972270080
A bet which caught my eye just now in terms of value was betfred's 150 - 199 seat band for Labour offered at 6/4, which compares with their actual seat win of 232 in 2015.
It seems unlikely to me that they will lose fewer than 33 seats overall, thereby leaving them with a maximum of 199 seats. Equally they appear unlikely to lose more than 82 seats leaving them with a minimum of 150 seats. (Btw if pushed, I'd forecast Labour to win between 180 - 190 seats.)
I've had a score's worth to win £30, but DYOR.
or to put it another way, er two.
I got trapped in the ECVs market in November and lost hundreds, even though I was well up on Trump as Next President.
The optics of a No Con are SO MUCH BETTER for Labour than meekly traipsing through the aye lobby with the Tories.
The spin from them is it is now defacto standard, despite in our long democratic history we have had only really 1 election with a proper set of tv debates.
Hopefully when TM get's her big majority we can get rid of the constitutional nonsense that is the FTPA.
At least she's referred the matter to the Commons authorities for a ruling.
Can't wait to see that on their election posters. The optics are brilliant, right?
I can see the SNP holding 50+seats (favourite), but I can also see a lower turnout, and some soft SNP'ers (Tartan Tories) defecting who didn't (and don't) want a 2nd referendum right now, but did want a strong Scottish voice in the HoC.
I expect SLab to largely collapse no matter what. But it's possible the SCons do better than expected. I'd be particularly interested in the odds in places like East Renfrewshire.
I'll be looking at the local election results carefully, as well as those from Holyrood last year.
Recession ended under Gordon Brown. Osborne very very nearly put us back into recession.
Millions were not lifted out of poverty by coalition... (NPI report 2015)
New jobs claim is just about true... I think they just got to 2m new jobs or close enough so i guess that is millions. Parity of esteem- dont know what that means? Funding fell by 8.25% in rreal terms apparently... The airport still isn't sorted although that might be Mays fault... Don't know about the railway.
I suspect that the LDs will fall back in East Dumbartonshire in June. My view; comfortable SNP hold.
https://twitter.com/eu_commission/status/854687528254918657
» show previous quotes
Just a case of when.
aww go on you big jessie, JPJ2 will be enjoying independence from Solihull
tell you what malc since theyre all bored I'll give you a fun bet £20 says Salmond loses his seat proceeds to the site.
Alan, you are on
PS: If you are brave enough, lot of fearties on here re betting on their positions
The biggest hurdle for this bet to deliver is, of course, him deciding to stand. But if he does I think the bet has a great chance of delivering. If he secures a reasonable seat he should win it. Labour are going to do badly and Corbyn, at last, will be forced out. Balls would then be the most serious candidate for the Labour leadership and would be untainted by "disloyalty" to Corbyn.
Go on Ed!
LABOUR: DRAFT BALLS.
I know which position I would rather defend on the doorstep
If I had to guess, I'd say the latter, but his confidence has been shattered by losing his seat two years ago, and he's probably trying to support Yvette's ambitions.
He needs a prod.
His decapitation two years ago was what convinced me to put more than pennies on the mayoralty.
Nevertheless there was a fair degree of anti-SNP tactical voting last time, which probably helped the three non-SNP MPs hold on. My sense is that this may unwind this time, because the differences between the other parties are much sharper and I don't get the feeling the SNP is actively disliked.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland
Agreed, not encouraging for my bet.
She wasn't a very good candidate last time though - so hopefully wisdom will prevail.