Mr. W, it isn't for broadcasters to dictate the campaigning style or schedule of politicians.
I was in favour of the first debates, but they were so horrendous (and the worm wide open to groupthink or infiltration) I've completely gone off them.
More importantly it isn't for politicians to dictate the tv schedules or programming.
So Osborne gets his first scoop for the Evening Standard, from himself. Now he is departing the Commons will TSE throw his hat into the ring in Tatton to keep the Cameroon/Osborneite flame alive?
If Osborne really has missed the print deadline, TSE should apply to be editor instead.
Don't think that will go down too well with George
My fear is that the Lib Dems will have the same experience as UKIP in 2015, lots of votes and motivated voters all over the country, not a lot of seats to show for it, and lots of moaning about the electoral system as a result (justified imo)
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.
And there is a risk that good local election results might tempt the LibDems to target quite wide for the General.
Very true. The Lib Dems usually poll around 3-4% better for local elections than GEs. So if they do take an NEV of 16% on May 4 (which they should), the risk is that enthusiasm about an election surge could lead them to reading the figures directly across and thinking that they're on course to double their vote.
Doesn't the pitiful state of the Labour party make the present circumstances unique? If the Lib Dem comeback becomes the dominant media narrative, it will probably stay that way up until polling day. Labour is more likely to collapse than mount an effective fightback.
Any absolute conviction from you on whether she'll attend?!
She has said no, and we can take her at her word, right?
I can say Nige won't be there
I presume Prof Paul Nutall, noticed academic and former professional footballer will be there, unless he is double booked with a neuro-science lecture or coaching session with Everton U23's.
June 2017, the election where Prof Nuttall becomes Prime Minister
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
Bristol West - Molly Scott Cato (Green) MEP - seems to be keen on VAT on meat, probably more to the left of Darren Hall who is contesting Mayoral job in Bristol/Bath. Hasn't struck me as someone with great campaigning skills.
Don't know who Lib Dems have chosen, unless Stephen Williams is keeping his options open if he loses in early May.
Labour incumbent seems to be targeted by Momentum for deselection, appeared to have good campaigning skills on the doorstep. Hope she won't have another 'straight fight' leaflet going through the door.
My fear is that the Lib Dems will have the same experience as UKIP in 2015, lots of votes and motivated voters all over the country, not a lot of seats to show for it, and lots of moaning about the electoral system as a result (justified imo)
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.
And there is a risk that good local election results might tempt the LibDems to target quite wide for the General.
Very true. The Lib Dems usually poll around 3-4% better for local elections than GEs. So if they do take an NEV of 16% on May 4 (which they should), the risk is that enthusiasm about an election surge could lead them to reading the figures directly across and thinking that they're on course to double their vote.
Doesn't the pitiful state of the Labour party make the present circumstances unique? If the Lib Dem comeback becomes the dominant media narrative, it will probably stay that way up until polling day. Labour is more likely to collapse than mount an effective fightback.
That said 1.20 is still too long for Lab vs LD votes (Ladbrokes)
Bristol West - Molly Scott Cato (Green) MEP - seems to be keen on VAT on meat, probably more to the left of Darren Hall who is contesting Mayoral job in Bristol/Bath. Hasn't struck me as someone with great campaigning skills.
Don't know who Lib Dems have chosen, unless Stephen Williams is keeping his options open if he loses in early May.
Labour incumbent seems to be targeted by Momentum for deselection, appeared to have good campaigning skills on the doorstep. Hope she won't have another 'straight fight' leaflet going through the door.
Bristol West is like a mini Islington there days. Bonkers VAT on meat policy will probably go down well.
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
My fear is that the Lib Dems will have the same experience as UKIP in 2015, lots of votes and motivated voters all over the country, not a lot of seats to show for it, and lots of moaning about the electoral system as a result (justified imo)
It'll be a feel-good campaign for the yellows, but I hope the targetting is pessimistic and I would not rule out losses in the existing seats. One real issue is that the targets are clustered (SW, South West London, South Manchester) and this will force some tricky choices unless the party really feel they can fight on many fronts.
And there is a risk that good local election results might tempt the LibDems to target quite wide for the General.
Very true. The Lib Dems usually poll around 3-4% better for local elections than GEs. So if they do take an NEV of 16% on May 4 (which they should), the risk is that enthusiasm about an election surge could lead them to reading the figures directly across and thinking that they're on course to double their vote.
Doesn't the pitiful state of the Labour party make the present circumstances unique? If the Lib Dem comeback becomes the dominant media narrative, it will probably stay that way up until polling day. Labour is more likely to collapse than mount an effective fightback.
That is indeed possible but while it's fine to work on the basis of a campaign dynamic, the Lib Dems - like all other parties - need to do so on the basis of a true understanding of their support, which the local elections won't give them directly.
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
"In a reference to the SNP, May says anyone who abstains in this vote will endorsing the record of the Conservative government." - guardian liveblog
Stupid comment from May. If this was the case, voting for the GE would mean voting in disapproval of the Conservative government. Which would include May herself.
Many posts (such as the one quoted by Alastair Meeks above) are entirely blank on my screen. When I myself quote them, as I am doing now, I can see it seems to be cut and pastes from twitter, although I still can't read anything useful - this one has a twitter URL with an 18 digit number at the end...so I have no idea what seat is tory target #49
Why don't they show up on my PC? Using IE, since work have bizarrely blocked us from using Chrome. Is IE just rubbish?
Edit: and after posting it goes back to being blank except for the words "Conservative target number 49."
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
"In a reference to the SNP, May says anyone who abstains in this vote will endorsing the record of the Conservative government." - guardian liveblog
Stupid comment from May. If this was the case, voting for the GE would mean voting in disapproval of the Conservative government. Which would include May herself.
It can't work one way but not the other.
Absolutely
Yet another stupid comment from May - there's a pattern forming...
The LibDems would need a swing of 20% to gain Oxford East.
So do they go for it or concentrate on Conservative Oxford West.
As AM says there's going to be lots of decisions about where to target resources.
West. All day long. I think the Lib Dems have learned their lesson - lots of long-shot targets in 2010 that didn't come off, lots of long-shot holds in 2015 with the same result.
Expect lots of high-flown rhetoric about "the real opposition" but Farron and those around him are canny enough to know this election is about regaining a foothold, not replacing Labour as the main opposition. All the effort will be in seats lost last time (and not all of those by any means) and in a tiny handful of selected others (Oxford West is an example) where the Lib Dems are in the game and demographics and Referendum position make it too tempting.
Ruth Ellen Brousseau in Alastair's article of course took a Bloc Quebecois seat. She still holds it despite her poor French) or maybe she is now as fluent as her constituents in working class, heavily French-speaking East Montreal.
The BQ once dominated francophone Quebec in the same way that the SNP now dominate Scotland. The BQ took took every francophone riding in 1993. They now hold about five.
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
The BQ once dominated francophone Quebec in the same way that the SNP now dominate Scotland. The BQ took took every francophone riding in 1993. They now hold about five.
There is a peak, because there always is.
The context for Scotland and Quebec is very different, not least because of the existence of the European Union and the unresolved political pressures of Brexit. I'd be wary of drawing any parallels.
There will be a peak for the SNP, but that is not the same as saying that they will not reach the summit.
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
How the fuck is that Blair's fault? Labour have been out of power for seven years you utter cretin.
'...bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
How the fuck is that Blair's fault? Labour have been out of power for seven years you utter cretin.
Well, numeracy is clearly a problem on this site too, if you're unable to subtract seven from sixteen and twenty four, before drawing conclusions and resorting to disobliging epithets...
@faisalislam: Former Tory minister Swayne congratulates Labour benches on being "Turkeys voting for Christmas". Almost daring Labour not to back motion.
Many posts (such as the one quoted by Alastair Meeks above) are entirely blank on my screen. When I myself quote them, as I am doing now, I can see it seems to be cut and pastes from twitter, although I still can't read anything useful - this one has a twitter URL with an 18 digit number at the end...so I have no idea what seat is tory target #49
Why don't they show up on my PC? Using IE, since work have bizarrely blocked us from using Chrome. Is IE just rubbish?
Edit: and after posting it goes back to being blank except for the words "Conservative target number 49."
There's JavaScript that is used on the web page to automatically expand Twitter comments. If that script is blocked from running for some reason (or the original Tweet is deleted), then they just go blank.
The BQ once dominated francophone Quebec in the same way that the SNP now dominate Scotland. The BQ took took every francophone riding in 1993. They now hold about five.
There is a peak, because there always is.
The context for Scotland and Quebec is very different, not least because of the existence of the European Union and the unresolved political pressures of Brexit. I'd be wary of drawing any parallels.
Brexit has actually not really moved the polling on Scottish independence and whether Canada should look more to Europe or the US/GB was very much an issue in Quebec. It also took 2 referendums to settle the independence question in Quebec and Quebec still has an in built anti Canadian Tory majority much as Scotland has against the UK Tories
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
How the fuck is that Blair's fault? Labour have been out of power for seven years you utter cretin.
Well, let's put it this way. They only have England/NI in the tables, and they're shite. 54 per cent of workers between 16-24 have no or little technology skills.
In every serious international comparison in educational standards, Wales has done a lot worse train England/NI. Not a bit worse, a lot worse (as even the First Minister has acknowledged),
Welsh education is Labour's fault.
There is no-one else to blame. Labour have been in power for 18 years.
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
Business have and always will moan about the skills of young people when asked. But Blair government did see substantial improvements in literacy and numeracy...
Bristol West and Norwich South could be Green gains if the Labour campaign completely implodes over the course of the next seven weeks. I'm assuming that won't happen at the moment.
Does anyone think that the election being in June (and outside most university term times) could have an impact on reducing lib dem areas of support like in Oxford East?
Bristol West and Norwich South could be Green gains if the Labour campaign completely implodes over the course of the next seven weeks. I'm assuming that won't happen at the moment.
Four parties will be tussling for Norwich South. All have a respectable chance.
Bristol West and Norwich South could be Green gains if the Labour campaign completely implodes over the course of the next seven weeks. I'm assuming that won't happen at the moment.
Four parties will be tussling for Norwich South. All have a respectable chance.
I'd be interested to know if the former LD MP is going to stand again. Could make a significant difference.
Bristol West and Norwich South could be Green gains if the Labour campaign completely implodes over the course of the next seven weeks. I'm assuming that won't happen at the moment.
Rubbish! Greens do not have a hope in hell of winning Norwich South now. They almost came fourth in 2015. A Tory gain is much more likely , but Lewis should hold.
Wonder what odds you could get on Osborne as next Mayor of London...
Inner London Is full of extreme lefties, the suburbs are Brexit leaving w kipper tendencies!
So who should the Tories stand against Khan next time round? They need someone fairly high profile
Not sure, but it might well not be vs Khan. I can't imagine Osbornes unpopularity w London Labour Corbynistas could be overcome by the suburbs in the way Boris managed.
I guess he may curry enough favour via The Standard?
Is Skinner seriously trying to get innocent MPs to stand down on grounds that under investigation = guilt?
Actually it seems like something the Tories might want - otherwise they risk having dozens of by-elections after the GE. A small risk IMO, but...
You have supported Corbyn consistently. Can you explain what he has to gain from leading his party over a cliff to certain humiliating defeat? In what way does this help to advance his own agenda?. Prima facie it appears to be an act of pure masochism! How autistic is this guy really?
Many posts (such as the one quoted by Alastair Meeks above) are entirely blank on my screen. When I myself quote them, as I am doing now, I can see it seems to be cut and pastes from twitter, although I still can't read anything useful - this one has a twitter URL with an 18 digit number at the end...so I have no idea what seat is tory target #49
Why don't they show up on my PC? Using IE, since work have bizarrely blocked us from using Chrome. Is IE just rubbish?
Edit: and after posting it goes back to being blank except for the words "Conservative target number 49."
There's JavaScript that is used on the web page to automatically expand Twitter comments. If that script is blocked from running for some reason (or the original Tweet is deleted), then they just go blank.
Thanks for replying even though I have no clue what that means :-)
A few specific seats I would like people's opinions on:
Bristol West (Lab held, Green/LD challenge) Edinburgh South (Lab held) Edinburgh SW (SNP held, was Darling's) Heywood & Middleton (Lab held, UKIP challenge) Norwich South (Lab held, Clive Lewis)
Bristol West: Lab Edinburgh South: Con Edinburgh SW: SNP Heywood: Lab Norwich South: Lab
The Tories haven't held Edinburgh South at WM since 1983. Whilst there are plenty of Tory minded pensioners in Morningside/the Grange, much of the constituency is suburbs/housing schemes.
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.
@faisalislam: Former Tory minister Swayne congratulates Labour benches on being "Turkeys voting for Christmas". Almost daring Labour not to back motion.
Is Skinner seriously trying to get innocent MPs to stand down on grounds that under investigation = guilt?
Actually it seems like something the Tories might want - otherwise they risk having dozens of by-elections after the GE. A small risk IMO, but...
You have supported Corbyn consistently. Can you explain what he has to gain from leading his party over a cliff to certain humiliating defeat? In what way does this help to advance his own agenda?. Prima facie it appears to be an act of pure masochism! How autistic is this guy really?
"Autistic" does not mean what you think it means. As it refers to a disability, perhaps you should stop using the word?
Isn't it about time we had a formal statement of apology from Blair and his education ministers for the failure of 'education, educashun, iddicaztunn' :
' Britain is facing a severe skills shortage as poor education at schools followed by weak training for adults has left young workers struggling to meet basic standards for reading and maths.
Almost every other developed country has had more success in building a skilled workforce, leaving the UK economy at risk of falling behind, according to the Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development (CIPD)
Its analysis found that England and Northern Ireland rank in the bottom four OECD countries for literacy and numeracy among 16-24 year olds '
Comments
You don't like tv debates. Switch channels.
Who will win
SNP vote share Scotland
Tory share England & Wales.
2 Lab hold
3 SNP hold (though Edinburgh W may go LD)
4 Lab hold
5 Lab hold
Don't know who Lib Dems have chosen, unless Stephen Williams is keeping his options open if he loses in early May.
Labour incumbent seems to be targeted by Momentum for deselection, appeared to have good campaigning skills on the doorstep. Hope she won't have another 'straight fight' leaflet going through the door.
FretBed - 1/10
Bradlokes - 1/2
MaddyMower - Evens
Hilliam Will - 3/2
Bet247 - 2/1
Former NFL footballer Aaron Hernandez has been found dead in his cell in Massachusetts, officials say.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39641338
Stupid comment from May. If this was the case, voting for the GE would mean voting in disapproval of the Conservative government. Which would include May herself.
It can't work one way but not the other.
Why don't they show up on my PC? Using IE, since work have bizarrely blocked us from using Chrome. Is IE just rubbish?
Edit: and after posting it goes back to being blank except for the words "Conservative target number 49."
Now when did a sixteen year old start school ...
Yet another stupid comment from May - there's a pattern forming...
https://twitter.com/BBCScotlandNews/status/854665749645979648
Expect lots of high-flown rhetoric about "the real opposition" but Farron and those around him are canny enough to know this election is about regaining a foothold, not replacing Labour as the main opposition. All the effort will be in seats lost last time (and not all of those by any means) and in a tiny handful of selected others (Oxford West is an example) where the Lib Dems are in the game and demographics and Referendum position make it too tempting.
The BQ once dominated francophone Quebec in the same way that the SNP now dominate Scotland. The BQ took took every francophone riding in 1993. They now hold about five.
There is a peak, because there always is.
http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/update/2017-04-19/norfolk-mp-cancels-his-wedding-because-of-general-election-clash/
What years were people aged 16-24 at school ?
What years were people aged 16-24 meant to be learning basic literacy and numeracy ?
Now who was in charge of education policy between 1997 and 2010 ?
There will be a peak for the SNP, but that is not the same as saying that they will not reach the summit.
Edinburgh South: Con
Edinburgh SW: SNP
Heywood: Lab
Norwich South: Lab
How the fuck is that Blair's fault? Labour have been out of power for seven years you utter cretin.
Well, numeracy is clearly a problem on this site too, if you're unable to subtract seven from sixteen and twenty four, before drawing conclusions and resorting to disobliging epithets...
Duh!!!!!!!!!
There's JavaScript that is used on the web page to automatically expand Twitter comments. If that script is blocked from running for some reason (or the original Tweet is deleted), then they just go blank.
In every serious international comparison in educational standards, Wales has done a lot worse train England/NI. Not a bit worse, a lot worse (as even the First Minister has acknowledged),
Welsh education is Labour's fault.
There is no-one else to blame. Labour have been in power for 18 years.
But Blair government did see substantial improvements in literacy and numeracy...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/education/6564933.stm
What a great idea!!
(Just kidding!)
I guess he may curry enough favour via The Standard?
They will only need to have a by-election if the MP is banned from public office, which is a fairly high bar to clear.
Cannot see that happening in 'dozens' of seats. If any.
End up with more MPs than he started with.
today Manchester’s acting returning officer Joanne Roney said she did not have the legal power to call the [Manchester Gorton byelection] vote off
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/apr/19/election-2017-theresa-may-mps-early-vote-politics-live
13:40
I'd expect some loss of Lab votes back to the Tories, but Tory numbers in this seat have only been over 10k once since '92.
If the SNP can source a decent candidate, I'd expect to see a Lab> Tory swing and the SNP to take the seat.
Most likely chance of an SNP loss in the Lothians is Edin West.
100 plus is the target.
Then again, hard to go wrong underestimating Corbyn.