politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May breaks her word and calls an early general electio
Comments
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No it isn't. It allowed a new election by agreement of the major parties - it would have been much more difficult if Labour did not agree, and the ability to call an early one is necessary flexibility, it just shoulnd't be at the whim of the PM.FrancisUrquhart said:Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
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What, you're shagging your ghillie?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hearing rumours he might not stand.Artist said:Will George "three jobs" Osborne stand in Tatton is another interesting question.
I've gone all Queen Victoria after Albert died.0 -
The man clearly has no interest in being an MP if he is not in government, sorry to break it to you.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hearing rumours he might not stand.Artist said:Will George "three jobs" Osborne stand in Tatton is another interesting question.
I've gone all Queen Victoria after Albert died.0 -
My understanding is that the current boundary commission review continues and will report to parliament by 1 October 2018.
Thus the 2022 (?) General Election would be based on the new constituencies.0 -
Because Labour are so obviously going to lose, there will not be any repeat of the SNP fears in England which worked against the LDs in 2015.
That will help in a number of places. Plus the coalition years are ancient history now. I think, when looking at LD chances, it may actually be more useful to look at 2010 results, and work from there, rather than the outlier 2015 results. there may be a lot of reversion to the norm for their vote.
Obviously not saying they will get 57 seats, but that looking at 2010 LD vote share is the best starting indication, not 2015 vote share.0 -
The point is I am up in this market and Tessy doesn't want to void my bets.rottenborough said:0 -
You underestimate how thick skinned Jezza is, he will have to be prised out!SeanT said:
You should be happy. Corbyn will go on June 9. Labour will return to its senses, albeit with 150 seats. The slow recovery can start.SouthamObserver said:
They should walk it this time. The LDs will take a lot of Labour votes.AndyJS said:Hampstead & Kilburn will be interesting. Tories haven't won it since 1987 (ignoring the boundary changes).
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Strangely the Lib Dems have more resources now than 2 years ago . Membership up over 60% and finances pretty sound from what I hear.Casino_Royale said:Another point on the Lib Dems: they don't have the resources or troops to fight everywhere, having been so hollowed out 2 years ago.
They might do very well off the back of the national campaign, though. Places like Bath and Twickenham will be very vulnerable to them.0 -
Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...0
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If Labour ends up with more than 200 seats after this it would be a miracle. The likelihood is around 170, I'd have thought.0
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You git.MarqueeMark said:
What, you're shagging your ghillie?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hearing rumours he might not stand.Artist said:Will George "three jobs" Osborne stand in Tatton is another interesting question.
I've gone all Queen Victoria after Albert died.0 -
I can't see any of the major nationals backing Labour. Lib Dem's might get a bit of love, could see perhaps the Grauniad backing them.FrancisUrquhart said:
And unlike the Mail's rather dodgy attack on Ed via his father's views....with Jezza they have a rammed packed virgin train full of stuff from his very own mouth.jonny83 said:Dadge said:
My heart sinks at the thought of Corbyn "fighting" the election. Not just because of him and his lack of nous and oomph and skills, but because the media will make it about him and will drone on endlessly about how bad he is and how left-wing he is and how people don't rate him and whether he'll resign. I'm dreading it. It was bad enough with Miliband.bobajobPB said:This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual
Which reminds me, Labour showed a distinct lack of balls at the last election. Will they manage to correct this in the next few weeks? I doubt it.
A Bacon Butty and an Ed Stone damaged him so badly. But those paper attacks are going to look very gentle compared to the onslaught Corbyn will face.
Plus, I doubt the BBC or Guardian are going to be interested in trying to be sympathetic to defending the Labour leader from the Mail being nasty.
In fact what papers are going to back Labour this time? Morning Star and...?
What worries me about the Lib Dems is Farron isn't exactly a charismatic figure (he's a fellow Blackburn Rovers fan so I have some time for him lol). Imagine if none of the Clegg history had happened and he was their leader now in this situation?
It's clearly going to be an election with a large Brexit theme to it, where perhaps disgruntled remainers might vote differently. I just wonder deep down if a lot of people realise/accept that Brexit is happening and the Brexit effect might be overplayed here. People do have the capacity to move on.0 -
Too late to stop.The_Apocalypse said:
What would be the point?dr_spyn said:
In my distant memory I think David Alton's by-election victory in Liverpool was just before a GE?0 -
This will probably get lost amongst the UK election discussion, but putting it out there anyway.
Opinionway daily rolling poll
Macron 23 (+1)
Le Pen 22 (=)
Fillon 20 (-1)
Melenchon 19 (+1)
http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_10 -
Seven weeks to save the NHS!FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
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If the opposition are not going to say no to a GE when they 20% behind. led by a donkey and only two years into the parliament, then when the f*** are they going to?kle4 said:
No it isn't. It allowed a new election by agreement of the major parties - it would have been much more difficult if Labour did not agree, and the ability to call an early one is necessary flexibility, it just shoulnd't be at the whim of the PM.FrancisUrquhart said:Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
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Interesting question - she certainly has the problem of raised expectations. Anything less than a majority of 150 may be viewed as underachieving (incredibly!)Cyan said:Will she resign if her majority stays the same size?
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I think candidates in place too, Farron was predicting a spring election.MarkSenior said:
Strangely the Lib Dems have more resources now than 2 years ago . Membership up over 60% and finances pretty sound from what I hear.Casino_Royale said:Another point on the Lib Dems: they don't have the resources or troops to fight everywhere, having been so hollowed out 2 years ago.
They might do very well off the back of the national campaign, though. Places like Bath and Twickenham will be very vulnerable to them.0 -
Bad move - there's SNP in dem hills.Scott_P said:0 -
Except May has already made it a Brexit electionjonny83 said:
I can't see any of the major nationals backing Labour. Lib Dem's might get a bit of love, could see perhaps the Grauniad backing them.FrancisUrquhart said:
And unlike the Mail's rather dodgy attack on Ed via his father's views....with Jezza they have a rammed packed virgin train full of stuff from his very own mouth.jonny83 said:Dadge said:
My heart sinks at the thought of Corbyn "fighting" the election. Not just because of him and his lack of nous and oomph and skills, but because the media will make it about him and will drone on endlessly about how bad he is and how left-wing he is and how people don't rate him and whether he'll resign. I'm dreading it. It was bad enough with Miliband.bobajobPB said:This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual
Which reminds me, Labour showed a distinct lack of balls at the last election. Will they manage to correct this in the next few weeks? I doubt it.
A Bacon Butty and an Ed Stone damaged him so badly. But those paper attacks are going to look very gentle compared to the onslaught Corbyn will face.
Plus, I doubt the BBC or Guardian are going to be interested in trying to be sympathetic to defending the Labour leader from the Mail being nasty.
In fact what papers are going to back Labour this time? Morning Star and...?
What worries me about the Lib Dems is Farron isn't exactly a charismatic figure (he's a fellow Blackburn Rovers fan so I have some time for him lol). Imagine if none of the Clegg history had happened and he was their leader now in this situation?
It's clearly going to be an election with a large Brexit theme to it, where perhaps disgruntled remainers might vote differently. I just wonder deep down if a lot of people realise/accept that Brexit is happening and the Brexit effect might be overplayed here. People do have the capacity to move on.0 -
From Jeremy Corbyn running it?Paristonda said:
Seven weeks to save the NHS!FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
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Probably not enough notice to cancel it. Postal votes already in etc.The_Apocalypse said:
What would be the point?dr_spyn said:0 -
Mid-life crisis Mason thinks the UK will vote for a left wing coalition.0
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If only.....TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm hearing rumours he might not stand.Artist said:Will George "three jobs" Osborne stand in Tatton is another interesting question.
I've gone all Queen Victoria after Albert died.0 -
Copeland Redux.FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
Oh.....0 -
May's rationale for the GE is very similar to Erdogan's for his referendum: institutions wanting to trammel my power and block the will of the People.kle4 said:
Who won elections.justin124 said:I think it could be the moment that her mask slipped and begins to be seen as a cynical ,slippery politician no different to the likes of Cameron & Blair.
I'm in agreement with Foxinox about INdyref - it cannot be the case that you can have a GE disrupt the negotiations but not an INdyref.
Also agree that Corbyn is a decent performer in debates - he could surprise.
May has done a poor job justifying this on the grounds of a changed situation, but that Corbyn has picked up the gauntlet nullifies the partisan accusation a little, though not completely.
Also, is she advocating abolishing the Lords? She cited 'unelected' lords as a block on brexit causing difficulty, an election won't change that unless she is planning to do something with them.0 -
I seriously doubt that the non-voters who came out to give the system a kicking will see it as their duty to give May a thumping mandate.MarqueeMark said:
OR..... The interesting thing will be whether those who voted in June 2016 but otherwise sit on their hands will turn out to give May the security of knowing she can deliver Brexit. And I think that will be a very determined focus of the campaign. If so, high turnout could tip some startling seats the Tories way...williamglenn said:
One factor may be differential turnout between hard-core Remainers vs Brexiteers. The former will be far more determined to make their vote count.Casino_Royale said:
In their wildest dreams, the top out for the Lib Dems would be about 30 gains from the Tories. And, to match a 2005 type tally, the Tories would have to be on their way out of Government.another_richard said:
I think we can have a guess at 40 seats the Conservatives can take from Labour.Alistair said:So election held, Tories take 40 seats from Labour but lose 42 to the Lib Dems. What then?
Worse tories take 40 seats rom Labour and the Lib Dems take 52 from the Tories. What then???
But what are the 42 or 52 seats the LibDems can take from the Conservatives ?
But, we live in unpredictable times.0 -
I think I might have to vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam to stop a Corbynite MP being elected.0
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The busy life of a CLP Secretary. In the last 90 minutes I've:
1. Looked at emergency CLP Exec / Campaign committee meetings in the next few days
2. Fired out emails about candidate selection timetable / process
3. Spoken to our campaign coordinator about how we tie a long campaign into the existing Mayoral campaign
4. Started drafting the outlines of a leaflet we'd need to write/print/deliver before the formal short campaign starts in a few weeks
5. Chatted to staffers in neighbouring seats about coordination of next steps
6. Floated the idea to Mrs RP about me not going to her Mum's this weekend
Oh, and I'm away on business on polling day and can't get out of it.
Bloody election. A dictatorship would be better...0 -
They are !!Deafbloke said:
So why aren't the SNP calling for one for June 8th? What is Sturgeon afraid of? Or are they not serious about independence?calum said:
As the Tories look likely to sweep to a 100+ seat majority - Scotland's voters minds will be focused by this !! - I think today's moves will only strengthen the case for an IndyRef2 sooner rather than later.FF43 said:
Vote SNP for Indyref2 and against a hard Brexit. They will clean up Scottish seats on a FPTP basis and Theresa May will have quite a lot of trouble with it. The SNP can reasonably claim a mandate from the Scottish electorate for their Indyref stance, and do so much more easily than they could with a Holyrood election.Alistair said:So, wait, what if the SNP stand on a "Vote SNP for IndyRef2" platform and get 40+ MPs?
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/8542859585350983690 -
Certainly so. The Lib Dems must campaign as the party of Soft Brexit not the party of Stop Brexit. There is little appetite to block the process, but most remainers could back a Norway type model. That is how they can potentially draw in tory remainers as well, and maybe get them near 20% of the vote.jonny83 said:
I can't see any of the major nationals backing Labour. Lib Dem's might get a bit of love, could see perhaps the Grauniad backing them.FrancisUrquhart said:
And unlike the Mail's rather dodgy attack on Ed via his father's views....with Jezza they have a rammed packed virgin train full of stuff from his very own mouth.jonny83 said:Dadge said:
My heart sinks at the thought of Corbyn "fighting" the election. Not just because of him and his lack of nous and oomph and skills, but because the media will make it about him and will drone on endlessly about how bad he is and how left-wing he is and how people don't rate him and whether he'll resign. I'm dreading it. It was bad enough with Miliband.bobajobPB said:This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual
Which reminds me, Labour showed a distinct lack of balls at the last election. Will they manage to correct this in the next few weeks? I doubt it.
A Bacon Butty and an Ed Stone damaged him so badly. But those paper attacks are going to look very gentle compared to the onslaught Corbyn will face.
Plus, I doubt the BBC or Guardian are going to be interested in trying to be sympathetic to defending the Labour leader from the Mail being nasty.
In fact what papers are going to back Labour this time? Morning Star and...?
What worries me about the Lib Dems is Farron isn't exactly a charismatic figure (he's a fellow Blackburn Rovers fan so I have some time for him lol). Imagine if none of the Clegg history had happened and he was their leader now in this situation?
It's clearly going to be an election with a large Brexit theme to it, where perhaps disgruntled remainers might vote differently. I just wonder deep down if a lot of people realise/accept that Brexit is happening and the Brexit effect might be overplayed here. People do have the capacity to move on.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I think I might have to vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam to stop a Corbynite MP being elected.
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Absolutely agree; this is a point I have made before. Just as coalition government was exceptionally unusual for the UK, so was the immediately following GE. Anyone doing modelling or predictions would be very sensible to work from a 2010 base.Paristonda said:Because Labour are so obviously going to lose, there will not be any repeat of the SNP fears in England which worked against the LDs in 2015.
That will help in a number of places. Plus the coalition years are ancient history now. I think, when looking at LD chances, it may actually be more useful to look at 2010 results, and work from there, rather than the outlier 2015 results. there may be a lot of reversion to the norm for their vote.
Obviously not saying they will get 57 seats, but that looking at 2010 LD vote share is the best starting indication, not 2015 vote share.0 -
be surprised if they end up as low as 50 DavidDavidL said:
It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.foxinsoxuk said:
Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.DavidL said:Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.0 -
LOL - what is he smoking?FrancisUrquhart said:Mid-life crisis Mason thinks the UK will vote for a left wing coalition.
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Wrong on both counts.Cyan said:Theresa May says in her statement that she's calling a general election because of a) the SNP and b) the House of Lords. Apparently the "game-playing" will jeopardise the form that Brexit takes if she doesn't get a bigger Tory majority in the Commons.
How awake does a person have to be to realise that her stated reason is a complete load of crap? Never mind that she lied in the past. She is lying now.
A general election is unlikely to change the number of SNP MPs by much, and even if it did, so what? And it won't change the composition of either the Scottish Parliament or the House of Lords one iota. And she's got a majority at the moment. Only Tory MPs can get rid of that majority - by voting against her, by crossing the floor of the House, or by getting replaced in by-elections. None of those possibilities have anything whatsoever do with the SNP or the House of Lords.
The Kremlin and the White House will love this general election. Europe is being destabilised.
"Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit". That's funny. I thought that division in Westminster was exactly how parliamentary democracy was meant to work.
If the SNP lose seats and vote share at the GE then it very much undermines their claims that the country is now more in favour of Independence than it was before the Brexit vote.
And depending on what goes into the manifesto in terms of Brexit promises, the Lords will be in a very different position when it comes to blocking future legislation.0 -
Good idea.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might have to vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam to stop a Corbynite MP being elected.
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So how long until the posters of Jezza "entertaining" the IRA, Hamas and Hezbollah go up across the country?
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One thing that all should agree on this forum - twitter/facebook are unlikely to be any sort of guide to the eventual result.0
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"he's a fellow Blackburn Rovers fan" - gosh they have two!!0
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Dave who ?Scott_P said:All the polling pundits across the News channels claiming the Tories will win a massive majority due to leadership and economic completence.
When this election is only and all about Brexit...
Another bad year for the pollsters I reckon.0 -
What's the point of holding a by-election if the winning candidate won't be able to sit in the Commons?0
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What it actually proves is that the "Leader" of the "Opposition" is an idiot. That's not guaranteed in all circumstances.rottenborough said:
As I have been banging on about for ages. It is the biggest load of b*llx in a long, long time, as was obvious from the moment Osborne dreamt it up. May has simply proved the case. Get rid of it.FrancisUrquhart said:Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
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Could work my ring-wing friend. The NHS is in a shambles right now and to be honest, this is one of Labour's strong areas. Labour needs to put the focus on NHS, Education etc. and try to deflect attention from Corbyn.FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
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Corbyn has to win an election first.RochdalePioneers said:The busy life of a CLP Secretary. In the last 90 minutes I've:
1. Looked at emergency CLP Exec / Campaign committee meetings in the next few days
2. Fired out emails about candidate selection timetable / process
3. Spoken to our campaign coordinator about how we tie a long campaign into the existing Mayoral campaign
4. Started drafting the outlines of a leaflet we'd need to write/print/deliver before the formal short campaign starts in a few weeks
5. Chatted to staffers in neighbouring seats about coordination of next steps
6. Floated the idea to Mrs RP about me not going to her Mum's this weekend
Oh, and I'm away on business on polling day and can't get out of it.
Bloody election. A dictatorship would be better...0 -
What about his conduct to date leads you to believe that a GE loss will cause him to resign?SeanT said:
You should be happy. Corbyn will go on June 9. Labour will return to its senses, albeit with 150 seats. The slow recovery can start.SouthamObserver said:
They should walk it this time. The LDs will take a lot of Labour votes.AndyJS said:Hampstead & Kilburn will be interesting. Tories haven't won it since 1987 (ignoring the boundary changes).
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Yep, I can't say I have a big problem with today's developments. Either Corbyn will resign on 9th June or he will be challenged and lose. I suspect it may be the latter.SeanT said:
You should be happy. Corbyn will go on June 9. Labour will return to its senses, albeit with 150 seats. The slow recovery can start.SouthamObserver said:
They should walk it this time. The LDs will take a lot of Labour votes.AndyJS said:Hampstead & Kilburn will be interesting. Tories haven't won it since 1987 (ignoring the boundary changes).
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Come over to the Yellows, sandals are fine footwear!TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might have to vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam to stop a Corbynite MP being elected.
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Can Labour change leader between now and the 9th ?SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I can't say I have a big problem with today's developments. Either Corbyn will resign on 9th June or he will be challenged and lose. I suspect it may be the latter.SeanT said:
You should be happy. Corbyn will go on June 9. Labour will return to its senses, albeit with 150 seats. The slow recovery can start.SouthamObserver said:
They should walk it this time. The LDs will take a lot of Labour votes.AndyJS said:Hampstead & Kilburn will be interesting. Tories haven't won it since 1987 (ignoring the boundary changes).
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Yep. I'll probably be voting LD in this election. Not because I think Farron is great, or even that I'm that pro-EU. But they are the only decent party on the left right now. I cannot vote for Corbyn.rottenborough said:
Good idea.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might have to vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam to stop a Corbynite MP being elected.
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Paper membership is one thing. But they need the ground troops to fight all over the country to fully exploit it at Westminster.MarkSenior said:
Strangely the Lib Dems have more resources now than 2 years ago . Membership up over 60% and finances pretty sound from what I hear.Casino_Royale said:Another point on the Lib Dems: they don't have the resources or troops to fight everywhere, having been so hollowed out 2 years ago.
They might do very well off the back of the national campaign, though. Places like Bath and Twickenham will be very vulnerable to them.0 -
LOL...the backbencher who Jezza complained to the chief whip about is now on Daily Politics squirming. It is very funny.0
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He wont go imho. He will have to be challenged, because McD wants the nomination thing stitched up at conference.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I can't say I have a big problem with today's developments. Either Corbyn will resign on 9th June or he will be challenged and lose. I suspect it may be the latter.SeanT said:
You should be happy. Corbyn will go on June 9. Labour will return to its senses, albeit with 150 seats. The slow recovery can start.SouthamObserver said:
They should walk it this time. The LDs will take a lot of Labour votes.AndyJS said:Hampstead & Kilburn will be interesting. Tories haven't won it since 1987 (ignoring the boundary changes).
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Putting 'Labour for NHS' or similar wank as the party name on the ballot papers could be a good move.Paristonda said:
Seven weeks to save the NHS!FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
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Having Jezza delivering that message might be a tad of a problem.murali_s said:
Could work my ring-wing friend. The NHS is in a shambles right now and to be honest, this is one of Labour's strong areas. Labour needs to put the focus on NHS, Education etc. and try to deflect attention from Corbyn.FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
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Imagine what would have happened if May had made that statement and then Corbyn had immediately said he wasn't going to vote for it and told her to get on with the job? She would have been hugely weakened.FF43 said:
What it actually proves is that the "Leader" of the "Opposition" is an idiot. That's not guaranteed in all circumstances.rottenborough said:
As I have been banging on about for ages. It is the biggest load of b*llx in a long, long time, as was obvious from the moment Osborne dreamt it up. May has simply proved the case. Get rid of it.FrancisUrquhart said:Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
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No mention of independence or another referendum in Sturgeon's tweet. Tired SLAB rhetoric from the SNP leader.calum said:
They are !!Deafbloke said:
So why aren't the SNP calling for one for June 8th? What is Sturgeon afraid of? Or are they not serious about independence?calum said:
As the Tories look likely to sweep to a 100+ seat majority - Scotland's voters minds will be focused by this !! - I think today's moves will only strengthen the case for an IndyRef2 sooner rather than later.FF43 said:
Vote SNP for Indyref2 and against a hard Brexit. They will clean up Scottish seats on a FPTP basis and Theresa May will have quite a lot of trouble with it. The SNP can reasonably claim a mandate from the Scottish electorate for their Indyref stance, and do so much more easily than they could with a Holyrood election.Alistair said:So, wait, what if the SNP stand on a "Vote SNP for IndyRef2" platform and get 40+ MPs?
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/8542859585350983690 -
What about anti-Brexit Tories? Conservative candidates who campaign locally for Remain?SeanT said:
You should be happy. This is your one democratic chance to reverse the Brexit vote.Beverley_C said:Have there been any reactions from Euroland?
Are they convinced yet that the UK has gone totally mad?
There is a national party dedicated to that: the Lib Dems (and the SNP in Scotland)
The British have the option of saying Ooops, we don't want Brexit after all.
But, of course, if the Brits vote for the pro-Brexit Tories, that's it. Brexit is certain, and you will accept it. Won't you?0 -
Technically yes - if he decides he really can't stomach an election campaign, and quits of his own accord. Then Labour MPs can just nominate one candidate for the leadership (Yvette Cooper?), the NEC can massively shorten the usual timetable because of exceptional circumstances, new leader in place within days.Pulpstar said:
Can Labour change leader between now and the 9th ?SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I can't say I have a big problem with today's developments. Either Corbyn will resign on 9th June or he will be challenged and lose. I suspect it may be the latter.SeanT said:
You should be happy. Corbyn will go on June 9. Labour will return to its senses, albeit with 150 seats. The slow recovery can start.SouthamObserver said:
They should walk it this time. The LDs will take a lot of Labour votes.AndyJS said:Hampstead & Kilburn will be interesting. Tories haven't won it since 1987 (ignoring the boundary changes).
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"...try to deflect attention from Corbyn...." Hmmmmm. Well, he may not be on much Labour election material. But every interviewer is going to ask him if he will resign if Labour loses. And at some point he will either a) rip an interviewer's head off or b) have a massive meltdown live on telly. Good luck keeping that out of the papers...murali_s said:
Could work my ring-wing friend. The NHS is in a shambles right now and to be honest, this is one of Labour's strong areas. Labour needs to put the focus on NHS, Education etc. and try to deflect attention from Corbyn.FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
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New Labour leader in place by autumn conference?
The trouble is, I don't think Jezza will actually step down even if we lose half our seats unless there is a deal to get his chosen successor on the ballot.
(You know that deal, the one I have been wibbling about for the past year or more.)
What will be interesting to see is how many Labour MPs jump before they are pushed - I see that Tom Blenkinsop is doing just that.0 -
New members have been busy for the councils, do not seem to just be keyboard warriors.Casino_Royale said:
Paper membership is one thing. But they need the ground troops to fight all over the country to fully exploit it at Westminster.MarkSenior said:
Strangely the Lib Dems have more resources now than 2 years ago . Membership up over 60% and finances pretty sound from what I hear.Casino_Royale said:Another point on the Lib Dems: they don't have the resources or troops to fight everywhere, having been so hollowed out 2 years ago.
They might do very well off the back of the national campaign, though. Places like Bath and Twickenham will be very vulnerable to them.0 -
Popping to the shops to buy eggs is a vote on Scottish independence, everything is.williamglenn said:0 -
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Nope.Pulpstar said:
Can Labour change leader between now and the 9th ?SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I can't say I have a big problem with today's developments. Either Corbyn will resign on 9th June or he will be challenged and lose. I suspect it may be the latter.SeanT said:
You should be happy. Corbyn will go on June 9. Labour will return to its senses, albeit with 150 seats. The slow recovery can start.SouthamObserver said:
They should walk it this time. The LDs will take a lot of Labour votes.AndyJS said:Hampstead & Kilburn will be interesting. Tories haven't won it since 1987 (ignoring the boundary changes).
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Unlikely, and would be pointless to try anyway. The Labour party base is so ridiculous that it will most likely need Labour to be decimated on June 8th in order to understand that the candidates that they like will simply consign Labour and the centre-left to utter irrelevance. On top of that they are many soft lefties/those on the right of party who genuinely don't want someone like Corbyn as PM.Pulpstar said:
Can Labour change leader between now and the 9th ?SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I can't say I have a big problem with today's developments. Either Corbyn will resign on 9th June or he will be challenged and lose. I suspect it may be the latter.SeanT said:
You should be happy. Corbyn will go on June 9. Labour will return to its senses, albeit with 150 seats. The slow recovery can start.SouthamObserver said:
They should walk it this time. The LDs will take a lot of Labour votes.AndyJS said:Hampstead & Kilburn will be interesting. Tories haven't won it since 1987 (ignoring the boundary changes).
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Mr. G, cheers for the polling figures from France.0
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Yes please!Scott_P said:0 -
Labour might be able to make some political capital using the line ' She might be a Vicar's daughter but has now revealed herself to be a barefaced liar! ' I suspect it would be a message that could gain some traction.0
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So Blair will campaign with the LDs then.Scott_P said:0 -
Do the Lib Dems want the war monger supporting them?Scott_P said:0 -
Being charitable she may not have lied then, her intention may still have been not to hold one. However like you I am at a loss as to how her stated reasons explain this, since they existed back then.MarkSenior said:
I can see the reasons too !! They are the same reasons that existed when May lied repeatedly months ago .Floater said:
Says uber partisan Mark SeniorMarkSenior said:Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
I on the other hand can see several reasons for her doing this0 -
Labour need a big Red Bus to tour the country in pledging an extra £350 million per week to the NHS.murali_s said:
Could work my ring-wing friend. The NHS is in a shambles right now and to be honest, this is one of Labour's strong areas. Labour needs to put the focus on NHS, Education etc. and try to deflect attention from Corbyn.FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
Anyone know where one could be found?0 -
Be about accurate as your other predictions?justin124 said:Labour might be able to make some political capital using the line ' She might be a Vicar's daughter but has now revealed herself to be a barefaced liar! ' I suspect it would be a message that could gain some traction.
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LOL - that will help, not.Scott_P said:0 -
Will Nick stand again?TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might have to vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam to stop a Corbynite MP being elected.
If not, best chance for the Tories to retake the seat in a generation...0 -
Salisbury convention means the unelected Lords won't vote down legislation included in the government's manifesto. Many of May's current proposals were not in the Conservative 2015 manifesto - e.g. leaving Single Market, Grammar schools.kle4 said:
Who won elections.justin124 said:I think it could be the moment that her mask slipped and begins to be seen as a cynical ,slippery politician no different to the likes of Cameron & Blair.
I'm in agreement with Foxinox about INdyref - it cannot be the case that you can have a GE disrupt the negotiations but not an INdyref.
Also agree that Corbyn is a decent performer in debates - he could surprise.
May has done a poor job justifying this on the grounds of a changed situation, but that Corbyn has picked up the gauntlet nullifies the partisan accusation a little, though not completely.
Also, is she advocating abolishing the Lords? She cited 'unelected' lords as a block on brexit causing difficulty, an election won't change that unless she is planning to do something with them.0 -
A tough choice for many. I still think 25% is the floor for Labour, as so many will not be able to let them be annihilated by the Tories.The_Apocalypse said:
Yep. I'll probably be voting LD in this election. Not because I think Farron is great, or even that I'm that pro-EU. But they are the only decent party on the left right now. I cannot vote for Corbyn.rottenborough said:
Good idea.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might have to vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam to stop a Corbynite MP being elected.
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How is Tony Blair support of reversing Brexit getting on? I seemed to remember to seeing the polling now has more people support Brexit than before he got involved.0
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Le Pen promised today to impose an immediate moratorium on immigration. That hasn't been in her programme before.
Fillon says that that makes no sense, and that "What threatens us is not immigration, but the surrender of our values and our history. If we are proud of our history and defend it, then we will integrate foreigners more easily."
Two men have been arrested in Marseilles, on suspicion of planning a terror attack during the election. As far as I know, they haven't been named yet. I doubt their surnames will be French. Fillon is trying to fight against xenophobia. It will be extremely tough for him to get more than 15%, "party machine" or no party machine. I doubt he will make the top three, let alone the top two.
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Could be worse - you could be a newly appointed Corbynite CLP Secretary who hasn't got a clue what they are doing...RochdalePioneers said:The busy life of a CLP Secretary. In the last 90 minutes I've:
1. Looked at emergency CLP Exec / Campaign committee meetings in the next few days
2. Fired out emails about candidate selection timetable / process
3. Spoken to our campaign coordinator about how we tie a long campaign into the existing Mayoral campaign
4. Started drafting the outlines of a leaflet we'd need to write/print/deliver before the formal short campaign starts in a few weeks
5. Chatted to staffers in neighbouring seats about coordination of next steps
6. Floated the idea to Mrs RP about me not going to her Mum's this weekend
Oh, and I'm away on business on polling day and can't get out of it.
Bloody election. A dictatorship would be better...0 -
That would have been fabulous!williamglenn said:
Imagine what would have happened if May had made that statement and then Corbyn had immediately said he wasn't going to vote for it and told her to get on with the job? She would have been hugely weakened.FF43 said:
What it actually proves is that the "Leader" of the "Opposition" is an idiot. That's not guaranteed in all circumstances.rottenborough said:
As I have been banging on about for ages. It is the biggest load of b*llx in a long, long time, as was obvious from the moment Osborne dreamt it up. May has simply proved the case. Get rid of it.FrancisUrquhart said:Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
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The Autralian Labor Party did that at beginning of 1983 when Malcolm Fraser called an early election. Bob Hawke won a big majority.Pulpstar said:
Can Labour change leader between now and the 9th ?SouthamObserver said:
Yep, I can't say I have a big problem with today's developments. Either Corbyn will resign on 9th June or he will be challenged and lose. I suspect it may be the latter.SeanT said:
You should be happy. Corbyn will go on June 9. Labour will return to its senses, albeit with 150 seats. The slow recovery can start.SouthamObserver said:
They should walk it this time. The LDs will take a lot of Labour votes.AndyJS said:Hampstead & Kilburn will be interesting. Tories haven't won it since 1987 (ignoring the boundary changes).
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Hard to see the SNP losing vote share and doubtful even on seats, be few if any. Choice is vote hated nasty right wing Tory rule forever or vote SNP for a fairer Scotland. Easy choice.Richard_Tyndall said:
Wrong on both counts.Cyan said:Theresa May says in her statement that she's calling a general election because of a) the SNP and b) the House of Lords. Apparently the "game-playing" will jeopardise the form that Brexit takes if she doesn't get a bigger Tory majority in the Commons.
How awake does a person have to be to realise that her stated reason is a complete load of crap? Never mind that she lied in the past. She is lying now.
A general election is unlikely to change the number of SNP MPs by much, and even if it did, so what? And it won't change the composition of either the Scottish Parliament or the House of Lords one iota. And she's got a majority at the moment. Only Tory MPs can get rid of that majority - by voting against her, by crossing the floor of the House, or by getting replaced in by-elections. None of those possibilities have anything whatsoever do with the SNP or the House of Lords.
The Kremlin and the White House will love this general election. Europe is being destabilised.
"Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit". That's funny. I thought that division in Westminster was exactly how parliamentary democracy was meant to work.
If the SNP lose seats and vote share at the GE then it very much undermines their claims that the country is now more in favour of Independence than it was before the Brexit vote.
And depending on what goes into the manifesto in terms of Brexit promises, the Lords will be in a very different position when it comes to blocking future legislation.0 -
Our GEs have generally been very presidential in the way they are run. Campaigning on certain issues like the NHS only works if voters trust the person leading your party to sort out those issues. That means that leaders need to have leadership skills - Corbyn doesn't. May isn't great but she will look great to voters when Corbyn is the alternative PM put up by Labour.0
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Idi Amin would be more popular.Scott_P said:0 -
I'm hoping for dramatic and massive gains across the SW for the LDs against the Tories - not because I care who rules the roost in local areas, but because it would be bloody funny for May to have called a GE, only then to see the Tories lose lots of local seats in the Tory shires and panic sweat a bit.0
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He was a broken man post May 2015 but he's got his passion back after Brexit.MarqueeMark said:
Will Nick stand again?TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might have to vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam to stop a Corbynite MP being elected.
If not, best chance for the Tories to retake the seat in a generation...0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ipYmMt1i84MarqueeMark said:
"...try to deflect attention from Corbyn...." Hmmmmm. Well, he may not be on much Labour election material. But every interviewer is going to ask him if he will resign if Labour loses. And at some point he will either a) rip an interviewer's head off or b) have a massive meltdown live on telly. Good luck keeping that out of the papers...murali_s said:
Could work my ring-wing friend. The NHS is in a shambles right now and to be honest, this is one of Labour's strong areas. Labour needs to put the focus on NHS, Education etc. and try to deflect attention from Corbyn.FrancisUrquhart said:Jezza has just made a statement shown on Daily Politics....it was evil Tories ruined the NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS NHS...
Now that interviewers know that that kind of result is achievable, they would have to be saints not to be hoping to replicate it.0 -
Will Lab be opposing Brexit? Where is the policy dice at present?williamglenn said:
Mr Blair campaigning for Tiny Tim. Hmmm.0 -
You cannot be as dim as you make out MonicaMonikerDiCanio said:
No mention of independence or another referendum in Sturgeon's tweet. Tired SLAB rhetoric from the SNP leader.calum said:
They are !!Deafbloke said:
So why aren't the SNP calling for one for June 8th? What is Sturgeon afraid of? Or are they not serious about independence?calum said:
As the Tories look likely to sweep to a 100+ seat majority - Scotland's voters minds will be focused by this !! - I think today's moves will only strengthen the case for an IndyRef2 sooner rather than later.FF43 said:
Vote SNP for Indyref2 and against a hard Brexit. They will clean up Scottish seats on a FPTP basis and Theresa May will have quite a lot of trouble with it. The SNP can reasonably claim a mandate from the Scottish electorate for their Indyref stance, and do so much more easily than they could with a Holyrood election.Alistair said:So, wait, what if the SNP stand on a "Vote SNP for IndyRef2" platform and get 40+ MPs?
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/8542859585350983690 -
Any news on TV debates? I'm assuming they'll be off the table as there's no time to organize them? 0
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I think Labour will go below 25%. Corbyn is so toxic that he'll really test the 25% floor.kle4 said:
A tough choice for many. I still think 25% is the floor for Labour, as so many will not be able to let them be annihilated by the Tories.The_Apocalypse said:
Yep. I'll probably be voting LD in this election. Not because I think Farron is great, or even that I'm that pro-EU. But they are the only decent party on the left right now. I cannot vote for Corbyn.rottenborough said:
Good idea.TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might have to vote Lib Dem in Sheffield Hallam to stop a Corbynite MP being elected.
I think those who will find it difficult to pick who to vote for will be like me - those on the centre-left. Most other people will simply vote Tory, IMHO.0
