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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May breaks her word and calls an early general electio

SystemSystem Posts: 12,263
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May breaks her word and calls an early general election for June 8th of this year

Can she satisfy or circumvent The Fixed-term Parliament Act? pic.twitter.com/pkKaBrVPuF

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited April 2017
    First like Farron!!

    The only way is UP.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    What a woman!!!!

    EU Go Girl!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    edited April 2017
    Tessie came out fighting there!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Re: Labour. The leadership and Shadow Cabinet could vote in favour of the election, whilst the rest of the MPs could vote against. Perfect way to start an election campaign.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Wow. Expect to see looped clips of May's frequent "politics is NOT a game" intonations, against this transparently opportunistic tactic.

    If Labour really do vote for this, they're dumber than anyone thought.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Is OGH on holiday? Yet another major political event...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnMoynes: Corbyn has just announced Labour's campaign will be launched on June 9th.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited April 2017
    Will Labour try to block her?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited April 2017
    Danny565 said:

    Wow. Expect to see looped clips of May's frequent "politics is NOT a game" intonations, against this transparently opportunistic tactic.

    If Labour really do vote for this, they're dumber than anyone thought.

    They have no choice. Voting against would be another nail in an already well made coffin.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    She doesn`t really know what to do now, so she chickens out. The really has put the country in a dreadful mess.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Artist said:

    Re: Labour. The leadership and Shadow Cabinet could vote in favour of the election, whilst the rest of the MPs could vote against. Perfect way to start an election campaign.

    That would mean the motion fails, unless the SNP voted for it.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Danny565 said:

    Wow. Expect to see looped clips of May's frequent "politics is NOT a game" intonations, against this transparently opportunistic tactic.

    If Labour really do vote for this, they're dumber than anyone thought.

    If they vote it down, they're even more screwed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    Pigeons, meet cat.

    Obviously the Tories' private polling matched the 21% leads from over the weekend. Game on!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    It is brilliant.

    So many ducks in a row/fish in a barrel.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnMoynes: Corbyn has just announced Labour's failed campaign will be launched on June 9th.

    Fixed for you.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Labour have to agree.

    Will they?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jamesrbuk: For clarity: May needs 434 or more votes; not 2/3rds of the MPs who vote. So Labour can't abstain, they'd need to vote in favour.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    The SNP won't be too pleased; there is no upside for them.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Danny565 said:

    Wow. Expect to see looped clips of May's frequent "politics is NOT a game" intonations, against this transparently opportunistic tactic.

    If Labour really do vote for this, they're dumber than anyone thought.

    Labour can't vote again it... no opposition would give up an opportunity for governement, when if they don't actually have one.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Worst case: we get to see Corbyn tying himself in knots explaining why Labour won't vote for an early election.

    Best case: we get to see Corbyn trying to run a General Election campaign.

    I'm salivating.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Overdue and very sensible. Always kick your opponents when they're down.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    She had to do it, didn't she. I would've.
  • BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    What happens to Gorton now, then...?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    The way Tessie went for corbyn from the off, I think she is going to grind him into the ground.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Wow. Expect to see looped clips of May's frequent "politics is NOT a game" intonations, against this transparently opportunistic tactic.

    If Labour really do vote for this, they're dumber than anyone thought.

    They have no choice. Voting against would be another nail in an already well made coffin.
    Even if that's true, it wouldn't be a coffin they'd get shut in for another 3 years, if they successfully blocked an early election.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    LOL, I hope this happens. Labour needs it in order to survive in the long-term politically.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Artist said:

    Re: Labour. The leadership and Shadow Cabinet could vote in favour of the election, whilst the rest of the MPs could vote against. Perfect way to start an election campaign.

    A group of turkeys are asked whether they want to vote for Xmas. The catch is that they hate the head turkey and only some of them will be spared the slaughter but the head will definitely go afterwards.

    hmm...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    IanB2 said:

    The SNP won't be too pleased; there is no upside for them.

    Not so, they'll presumably campaign on Indyref2.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    PClipp said:

    She doesn`t really know what to do now, so she chickens out. The really has put the country in a dreadful mess.

    Clear leadership - interesting times
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    A shabby statement from the Prime Minister.

    A government with a majority cuts and runs and the PM breaks her word for narrow party advantage.

    Shameful.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Overdue and very sensible. Always kick your opponents when they're down.

    She didn't just kick them, she took an almighty run up and smashed them in the knackers in that speech!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2017
    I see no downside to Labour blocking it. "It'd show they're not serious about being in government".. erm no one thinks they are at the moment anyway.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I reckon that 23% Labour rating with YouGov did it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    Headline is wrong, she cannot call a general election, merely announced a motion for parliament to vote on whether or not there should be one. A ploy to soft sell a begging bowl agreement on Brexit where we pay more money for less.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Well done Gina Miller.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    I bet the calculation was the Jezza won't survive the aftermath of the local's and Gorton...
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Great news. Goodbye Corbyn.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    AndyJS said:

    I reckon that 23% Labour rating with YouGov did it.

    That Con 1% lead in the North with ComRes was pretty devastating too!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Corbyn's best plan would be to vote against.

    He would be cricified in the press. Plus ca change...

    They still can't shift him. And Tezza's Brexit would be derailed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,122
    Faisal Islam expects Theresa May to get the numbers tomorrow
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Overdue and very sensible. Always kick your opponents when they're down.

    And makes the various potential police-investigation-related by-elections moot, presumably.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    just turned on the tv and saw the news - lol - something about a dockside hooker comes to mind
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    AndyJS said:

    I reckon that 23% Labour rating with YouGov did it.

    I suspect she asked her husband's advice whilst walking over Easter. A good way to mull over a problem away from aides.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnMoynes: Corbyn has just announced Labour's campaign will be launched on June 9th.

    Beyond irony to see a Remoaner retweeting that.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    GIN1138 said:

    I bet the calculation was the Jezza won't survive the aftermath of the local's and Gorton...

    Indeed. This is May's only chance to have a GE with Corbyn as leader before labour get their act together.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    May's nature would suggest she has been brooding on this for a while, and didn't just get up in the morning, see Labour's worst ever opposition poll rating, and decide to go for it.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Big respect for TM
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnMoynes: Corbyn has just announced Labour's campaign will be launched on June 9th.

    As early as that? :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    edited April 2017
    PClipp said:

    She doesn`t really know what to do now, so she chickens out. The really has put the country in a dreadful mess.

    Bullshit...This is the best thing for the country. We get to choose and most likely we get rid of corbyn and get a functioning opposition rather than another 3 years of the only thing opposing the Tories are themselves.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Tom Blenkinsop says he won't stand. Who else I wonder?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    If Labour MPs care about their party, they'll vote for an early GE. The only way at this stage that they can get Corbyn out and hope to salvage the party. The party is literally dead, buried with Corbyn and those who think like him at the helm.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Biggest obstacle to an election might be the Lords
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnMoynes: Corbyn has just announced Labour's campaign will be launched on June 9th.

    Oh boy - buy shares in popcorn makers
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    The timing suggests she has been planning this for a while. Early June election with an announcement giving her 6/7 weeks to campaign.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    An interesting question is whether the boundary commission would have to start again, for the third time, or whether there is any way the proposals can still be produced and voted through in 2018?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    David Macmillan‏ @bbcdmacmillan

    Labour's @TomBlenkinsop announces he will not seek re-election as MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.


    Here we go......
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    JackW said:

    A shabby statement from the Prime Minister.

    A government with a majority cuts and runs and the PM breaks her word for narrow party advantage.

    Shameful.


    Politician exercises political strategy.

    Shameful.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Artist said:

    I see no downside to Labour blocking it. "It'd show they're not serious about being in government".. erm no one thinks they are at the moment anyway.

    Agreed.

    And the SNP don't want it either. They could argue they vote against the Tories on principle and get away with it (with their supporters)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    PClipp said:

    She doesn`t really know what to do now, so she chickens out. The really has put the country in a dreadful mess.

    care to explain ?


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    The way Tessie went for corbyn from the off, I think she is going to grind him into the ground.

    It was always going to be a GE focused on 'leadership' from the moment the £3 idiots elected Corbyn.

    This is going to be popcorn-tastic slaughter.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Normally Mike goes on holiday late May and early June.

    This year his holiday begins July 1st
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Chance this might backfire with the public? She gave her word there wouldn't be and she has gone back on it even it makes sense to do so with brexit negotiations being affected by having a small majority.

    I can't see how Labour do not get absolutely massacred. Corbyn on an actual GE election campaign coupled with all the press after him and digging into his past...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RichardJMurphy: Theresa May notes Erdogan’s ‘success’ and decides to consolidate her power. Heaven help us all
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    It took all my self restraint not to headline this piece

    'Mrs May proves shes a pound shop Gordon Brown'
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Overdue and very sensible. Always kick your opponents when they're down.

    She didn't just kick them, she took an almighty run up and smashed them in the knackers in that speech!
    As jack says another perfidious Tory puts party ahead of country, they are not called the nasty party for nothing. They may get a shock with leave voters les than happy that they are trying to sell out on Brexit.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    On the plus-side, if this does happen, it'll be the first time I've voted in a marginal seat!

    (Mind you, my old formerly safe Lab seat would be a marginal on current polling.)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I am rather hoping that Labour refuses to play ball here!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    BudG said:

    Biggest obstacle to an election might be the Lords

    It doesn't need the Lords.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,651
    Slackbladder said:

    David Macmillan‏ @bbcdmacmillan

    Labour's @TomBlenkinsop announces he will not seek re-election as MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.


    Here we go......

    He had no chance.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Labour will spend most of this campaign working on next leader sub-campaigns.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Essexit said:

    Worst case: we get to see Corbyn tying himself in knots explaining why Labour won't vote for an early election.

    Best case: we get to see Corbyn trying to run a General Election campaign.

    I'm salivating.

    LOL - it really is simplistically brutal by the tories
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited April 2017
    Fenster said:

    The timing suggests she has been planning this for a while. Early June election with an announcement giving her 6/7 weeks to campaign.

    The expenses scandal presumably is the actual trigger. It is said the party has been polling the affected constituencies.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,880
    IanB2 said:

    May's nature would suggest she has been brooding on this for a while, and didn't just get up in the morning, see Labour's worst ever opposition poll rating, and decide to go for it.

    I think the response from the EU since A50 is what's done it. She's realised she holds absolutely no cards at all and thinks that winning a big majority will strengthen her hand.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Theresa Will
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Wow.

    Yesterday I remarked that The problem with Clegg's FTPA (and, specifically, Osborne's five year amendment to it) is that there are two conflicting things that the good of the country requires: a functioning opposition and hard Leftism to be trounced at an election since the lesson of 1983 has apparently been forgotten - it looks like May has found a way to square the circle.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    williamglenn said:

    IanB2 said:

    May's nature would suggest she has been brooding on this for a while, and didn't just get up in the morning, see Labour's worst ever opposition poll rating, and decide to go for it.

    I think the response from the EU since A50 is what's done it. She's realised she holds absolutely no cards at all and thinks that winning a big majority will strengthen her hand.
    LOL I'd love to go on holiday inside your head.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Overdue and very sensible. Always kick your opponents when they're down.

    She didn't just kick them, she took an almighty run up and smashed them in the knackers in that speech!
    Loool - I missed it but might have to take a look now
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    BudG said:

    Biggest obstacle to an election might be the Lords

    ? They are using the act, not repealing it
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. G, the Lords opposing an election that had the backing of the Commons would not be helpful to them in the long term.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Always thought TM would do this at some point - the longer she left it, the more chance Labour got rid of Jezza, and the daily grind of difficult negotiations would grind away her poll lead.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    PClipp said:

    She doesn`t really know what to do now, so she chickens out. The really has put the country in a dreadful mess.

    Bullshit...This is the best thing for the country. We get to choose and most likely we get rid of corbyn and get a functioning opposition rather than another 3 years of the only thing opposing the Tories are themselves.
    +1 - anyone would think the LDs are frit. they only seem to like by-elections.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410
    edited April 2017
    IanB2 said:

    The SNP won't be too pleased; there is no upside for them.


    I would expect the SNP to bargain their 50 odd MPs against getting a commitment to Indyref2. We will vote for dissolution providing you give us one (bearing in mind you rejected it earlier on the grounds that referendums, elections etc are distraction from Brexit. Expect to hear the words "Now's not the time" repeated ad nauseam. Whether those 50 MPs will make or break the two thirds is another matter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    Go LibDems - first out of the gate with a reaction!

    I wonder when Labour's National Executive Press Release sub committee is next due to meet?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edmundintokyo said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Overdue and very sensible. Always kick your opponents when they're down.

    And makes the various potential police-investigation-related by-elections moot, presumably.
    No. if the investigated candidates are convicted later, they'll still have to resign. Of course, that will be a minor annoyance if the government majority is 200.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    LibDems sounding like they will vote for GE
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Another good thing about this. We now have a defining moment. The Left always said voters wanted a proper choice. Now they have one.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,146
    The prospect of Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister does not appeal, even with his wondrous Front Bench forming the Cabinet.

    Good morning everyone.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    IanB2 said:

    Go LibDems - first out of the gate with a reaction!

    I wonder when Labour's National Executive Press Release sub committee is next due to meet?

    Paddy Power‏Verified account @paddypower 8m8 minutes ago
    More
    Jeremy Corbyn is in for a shock when he wakes up in 45 minutes. #GeneralElection
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    I just booked Friday 9th June as holiday :)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    IanB2 said:

    Go LibDems - first out of the gate with a reaction!

    I wonder when Labour's National Executive Press Release sub committee is next due to meet?

    After the Morning Star has had a latte with Seamus.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    justin124 said:

    I am rather hoping that Labour refuses to play ball here!

    They would be sensible to leave Tories on the Brexit hook, come 2020 and UK is facing a bleak future after dire Brexit , Labour could do well.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    SouthamObserver said:

    The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.

    He won't resign before Labour Conference and a deal over the leadership election rule amendment IMHO
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    ThreeQuidder said:

    I just booked Friday 9th June as holiday :)

    Snap - me too!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Just had another thought. Are we going to have TV debates. May v Corbyn?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373
    Hot take from reasonably sane Scottish Unionist.

    https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/854277928322052097
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    edited April 2017
    It's my girlfriend's birthday on June 8th.

    #IHateTheresaMay
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Good morning, Miss JGP.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    How many of the Lab MPs who voted for Corbyn to stand in the Lab leadership election are likely to lose their seats?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Slackbladder said:

    David Macmillan‏ @bbcdmacmillan

    Labour's @TomBlenkinsop announces he will not seek re-election as MP for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.

    The first of many such announcements I suspect, moderate PLP must be relieved it’s all over.
This discussion has been closed.