The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.
It'll be an irrelevant opposition if they're facing a party with a 150+ majority
May's nature would suggest she has been brooding on this for a while, and didn't just get up in the morning, see Labour's worst ever opposition poll rating, and decide to go for it.
Think it is more than that. The left in her party would stop Grammar Schools, the opposition would play havoc with the Brexit legislation and of course the problems with the electoral commission are over.
The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.
As long as Lab hold Islington North, Corbyn probably won't be resigning.
Wonder about the campaign finances here. Conservatives must be in pretty good shape (though no busing people in this time lol). Labour and the others can't be in good shape.
No. if the investigated candidates are convicted later, they'll still have to resign. Of course, that will be a minor annoyance if the government majority is 200.
But if the danger is significant (which is hard to judge from the outside), the most at-risk candidates might withdraw.
The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.
What makes you think there'll be a functioning opposition? The labour party is devoid of ideas, principles and a potential leader, the only thing that will change is Corbyn.
The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.
Hopefully your party will sort out its hard left and anti semitic problems.
All that supposed secret polling showing Lib Dems doing well against Tories on the narrative of anti-Brexit...either it was bollocks or May has thought bring it on.
Chance this might backfire with the public? She gave her word there wouldn't be and she has gone back on it even it makes sense to do so with brexit negotiations being affected by having a small majority.
It's possible, but most people won't have noticed that there was a pledge. Labour might try to bring it up but I wouldn't be confident in their ability to make it stick - especially as they'll have to agree in order for it to happen.
How many of the Lab MPs who voted for Corbyn to stand in the Lab leadership election are likely to lose their seats?
The left wingers generally have the safer seats, especially in London, but this is of course a Remain area. The Tories aren't the only party whose position on Brexit will come under scrutiny over the next couple of months,..
Wonder about the campaign finances here. Conservatives must be in pretty good shape (though no busing people in this time lol). Labour and the others can't be in good shape.
ScottP Fasial Islam just said on Sky Labour's finances were in good shape now. Or perhaps they have pulled a Gordon Brown and all the debt is now off the books.
May will try to write all of her demands of the EU into the manifesto thinking that it means they'll be forced to give in. It's completely reckless and designed to create division.
May will try to write all of her demands of the EU into the manifesto thinking that it means they'll be forced to give in. It's completely reckless and designed to create division.
May has gone for a seven week campaign. Governments well ahead normally keep it short. Just how many Corbyn/IRA stories do they have?
Well if they run out of those...they have Hamas....Hezbollah...Press TV...Morning Star....Venezuela....then when they have run out of those, they can move onto ...McMao ..... then .... Seamus ..... then .... Abbott....
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?
May will try to write all of her demands of the EU into the manifesto thinking that it means they'll be forced to give in. It's completely reckless and designed to create division.
This is actually good news for Labour. If Jeremy Corbyn had another year in office, the Lib Dems might make serious inroads in Remain heartlands. But they're out of time and should now remain safely Labour.
The timing is dictated by the EU negotiations. Nothing will happen before June and after that date Britain can't spare two months from the negotiation timetable.
So far, LDs and Greens have welcomed the news. It will be hard for the liar narrative to gain traction, even if it is true. I think she will get away with this u-turn. It's not really going to anger enough people to be an issue.
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?
It will be a Labour bloodbath in the Midlands, for certain.
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?
You need to make sure you are in front of the telly when with tears streaming from his eyes Dimblebore announces the Tories take Bootle...
This is actually good news for Labour. If Jeremy Corbyn had another year in office, the Lib Dems might make serious inroads in Remain heartlands. But they're out of time and should now remain safely Labour.
The timing is dictated by the EU negotiations. Nothing will happen before June and after that date Britain can't spare two months from the negotiation timetable.
How many of the Lab MPs who voted for Corbyn to stand in the Lab leadership election are likely to lose their seats?
Kat Smith for one.
Margaret Beckett, MP for Derby South
Kelvin Hopkins, MP for Luton North
Labour will be killed in midlands/SE marginals
Labour won't lose Luton North but Derby South is possible.
Hopkins was one of the few Labour Eurosceptics and his constituency voted Leave. If the EU is seen as being of any importance at the election I can't see him losing.
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?
It will be a Labour bloodbath in the Midlands, for certain.
You were accurate about this area in 2015 - what makes you so confident this time, beyond the opinion poll evidence that is?
On recent polls the only seats outside London that Labour will hold outside London south of the Severn and the Wash are Oxford East, Luton North and maybe Norwich South and Bristol West.
I wonder how big the Remain/Leave split will figure in the election.
If it figures a lot, then my current seat (heavily Remain City of Chester) could be closer to a Labour win than my old seat (heavily Leave Ellesmere Port), despite the latter being much safer on paper.
This is actually good news for Labour. If Jeremy Corbyn had another year in office, the Lib Dems might make serious inroads in Remain heartlands. But they're out of time and should now remain safely Labour.
The timing is dictated by the EU negotiations. Nothing will happen before June and after that date Britain can't spare two months from the negotiation timetable.
The chance for the LDs is that this will be a 100% brexit election in a way that a 2020 would not. That favours parties with distinct positions on Brexit, and could help give the LDs momentum.
They need to go for simple Norway soft brexit to have a chance of attracting a large chunk of the remainer vote though. Any Stop Brexit platform will have too small a pool of voters.
On recent polls the only seats outside London that Labour will hold outside London south of the Severn and the Wash are Oxford East, Luton North and maybe Norwich South and Bristol West.
I think Bristol is a place where Corbyn will do well.
UKIP are having a small breakdown on social media. Lots of complaints about how many seats they have no candidates for. I can see them losing a fair bit of support to the Tories o June 8th.
May will try to write all of her demands of the EU into the manifesto thinking that it means they'll be forced to give in. It's completely reckless and designed to create division.
It is called leadership
Leadership not grounded in reality is dangerous.
Except when it's the EU leadership, then everything they do is ok in your eyes
I would say this is the smart thing to do for several reasons - one of which is giving her a stronger position to get us brexit - which of course is why you are squealing like a stuck pig
May's announcement was super weak as an explanation for her U-turn. None of her reasons, regarding the political game playing, were not true months ago.
I hope all those 'May has given her word and that's that' people will see how silly that attitude was though. It was always the case that if she thought it was worth it she would do it, and I thought she'd been sensible in deciding it was not.
If Labour vote for dissolution then fine, but if they have to go the no confidence route, manipulating the system for partisan advantage, then shame on May.
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?
It will be a Labour bloodbath in the Midlands, for certain.
You were accurate about this area in 2015 - what makes you so confident this time, beyond the opinion poll evidence that is?
People in the Midlands haven't forgotten the IRA attacks. With Corbyn's IRA sympathizing especially in the past and the papers reminding them a lot are not going to vote Labour. It's not the only reason but it's a factor.
UKIP are having a small breakdown on social media. Lots of complaints about how many seats they have no candidates for. I can see them losing a fair bit of support to the Tories o June 8th.
Comments
Just amazing politics
Now we get to see exactly how popular hard left , Islamic thug loving Corbyn and co are
Happy days.
May - the generals' general.
Same horse different jockey
http://opinionlab.opinion-way.com/opinionlab/832/627/presitrack.html
Macron 23
Le Pen 22
Fillon 20
Melenchon 19
May has gone for a seven week campaign. Governments well ahead normally keep it short. Just how many Corbyn/IRA stories do they have?
Kelvin Hopkins, MP for Luton North
Labour will be killed in midlands/SE marginals
Well, that's an eye-opener.
I'm surprised she didn't wait till after the local elections, like Maggie.
ScottPFasial Islam just said on Sky Labour's finances were in good shape now. Or perhaps they have pulled a Gordon Brown and all the debt is now off the books.Perhaps no-one is answering the phone at Labour HQ?
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?
Tories to win a majority of 152.
Test
The timing is dictated by the EU negotiations. Nothing will happen before June and after that date Britain can't spare two months from the negotiation timetable.
Near me I think there are some seats which one would assume would be pretty much Labour forever there they aren't safe:
Don Valley, Rother Valley, even Bolsover...
NE Derbyshire out and out gonner.
Clausewitz's Principles of War
•Surprise
◦Attack when the enemy least suspects it
•Mass
◦Get there first with the most
•Objective
◦Choose an objective and stick with it
•Offensive
◦Seize the Initiative
•Manoeuver
◦Move to more advantageous positions
•Unity of Command
◦Place your entire force under the command of a single entity
•Security
◦Don't let the enemy rob you of your advantages
•Simplicity
◦Keep your plans clear and simple
•Economy of Force
◦Allocate your limited forces wisely
Brutal will be an understatement.
Cambridge to return to yellow from red should be a key battleground.
Are you still dating a Corbynista? Is so, could be a bit of a tricky evening !
If it figures a lot, then my current seat (heavily Remain City of Chester) could be closer to a Labour win than my old seat (heavily Leave Ellesmere Port), despite the latter being much safer on paper.
They need to go for simple Norway soft brexit to have a chance of attracting a large chunk of the remainer vote though. Any Stop Brexit platform will have too small a pool of voters.
I would say this is the smart thing to do for several reasons - one of which is giving her a stronger position to get us brexit - which of course is why you are squealing like a stuck pig
I wonder...
I hope all those 'May has given her word and that's that' people will see how silly that attitude was though. It was always the case that if she thought it was worth it she would do it, and I thought she'd been sensible in deciding it was not.
If Labour vote for dissolution then fine, but if they have to go the no confidence route, manipulating the system for partisan advantage, then shame on May.
I've already booked the 5th off ffsake.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0
But the man in the white suit standing against him and winning would make my year....
It's on. Corbyn: "I welcome the PM's decision to give British ppl chance to vote for a Govt that will put the interests of the majority 1st"
No way he couldn't chicken out of it.