May has gone for a seven week campaign. Governments well ahead normally keep it short. Just how many Corbyn/IRA stories do they have?
Dont forget anti semitism and the Islamist links
Brutal will be an understatement.
The LibDems will be polling above 20% quite soon
I predict this will be a very good election for the Lib Dems.
There will be a large pro-EU, anti-Brexit, anti-Tory protest vote out there which won't want to back Lab under Corbyn..... and the Lib Dems are perfectly placed.
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?
It will be a Labour bloodbath in the Midlands, for certain.
You were accurate about this area in 2015 - what makes you so confident this time, beyond the opinion poll evidence that is?
People in the Midlands don't forget the IRA attacks. With Corbyn's IRA sympathizing especially in the past and the papers reminding them a lot are not going to vote Labour. It's not the only reason but it's a factor.
It isn't just Corbyn either, the Tories can paint McMao the same way, plus the likes of Seamus has some voter repellent views.
If the Tories want to go negative, it is fish in a barrel. And that speech it sounded like she is quite happy to grind Team Jezza into the ground.
This may also have a big impact on the mayoral elections. I'm not sure the Labour candidates who have been trying to distance themselves from Corbyn will enjoy this.
This is actually good news for Labour. If Jeremy Corbyn had another year in office, the Lib Dems might make serious inroads in Remain heartlands. But they're out of time and should now remain safely Labour.
The timing is dictated by the EU negotiations. Nothing will happen before June and after that date Britain can't spare two months from the negotiation timetable.
I do think it offers unexpected hope for the Labour party.
They are in such dire straits that throwing the whole deck of cards in the air does at least offer a chance that their position will be different afterwards, and that holds out the possibility that different will be better.
There might even be some quite unexpected Labour MPs elected (if fed-up people stand down and they're obliged to scratch around quickly for a candidate) and a future Leader/PM candidate might be one of them.
On recent polls the only seats outside London that Labour will hold outside London south of the Severn and the Wash are Oxford East, Luton North and maybe Norwich South and Bristol West.
I think Bristol is a place where Corbyn will do well.
The Bristol seat breakdowns for the referendum are available on wikipedia. Bristol W was massively remain, while S, E and NW were only just remain. S and E are much more working class seats with previously sizeable UKIP votes
Sky are showing a YouGov poll with Tory 21% lead claiming a "new poll out this morning". I presume that is the one we already knew about, rather than a 3rd 21% lead poll.
LOL...Sky already talking about Tories likely attack lines...IRA...Hezbollah....
UKIP are having a small breakdown on social media. Lots of complaints about how many seats they have no candidates for. I can see them losing a fair bit of support to the Tories o June 8th.
On recent polls the only seats outside London that Labour will hold outside London south of the Severn and the Wash are Oxford East, Luton North and maybe Norwich South and Bristol West.
I think Bristol is a place where Corbyn will do well.
The Bristol seat breakdowns for the referendum are available on wikipedia. Bristol W was massively remain, while S, E and NW were only just remain. S and E are much more working class seats with previously sizeable UKIP votes
The Corbynista mayoral candidate who campaigned as Corbyn's man won easily in Bristol (although the existing independent mayor wasn't very popular).
Assuming that she does get at least a good working majority, this is excellent news for the prospects of a reasonable deal with the EU (which is why the pound has just risen).
Gutted by this news - we just booked 2 weeks summer holiday in Italy starting on 7th June last night. I can get a postal vote of course, but this would have been one election all nighter I might have relished. I'll have to follow it all on my phone on PB on dodgy hotel wifi....
I really hope this doesnt backfire, but you can see why she's done it. I think the LDs will take southern England seats off the Tories - so can the Tories take any more off Labour than they managed in 2015, regardless of what the polls say?
It will be a Labour bloodbath in the Midlands, for certain.
You were accurate about this area in 2015 - what makes you so confident this time, beyond the opinion poll evidence that is?
Sky are showing a YouGov poll with Tory 21% lead claiming a "new poll out this morning". I presume that is the one we already knew about, rather than a 3rd 21% lead poll.
LOL...Sky already talking about Tories likely attack lines...IRA...Hezbollah....
Assuming that she does get at least a good working majority, this is excellent news for the prospects of a reasonable deal with the EU (which is why the pound has just risen).
Yep - it does reduce the influence of the swivel-eyed brigade. Unless a lot of the new Tory MPs are swivel-eyed, too, of course.
On recent polls the only seats outside London that Labour will hold outside London south of the Severn and the Wash are Oxford East, Luton North and maybe Norwich South and Bristol West.
If Ben Bradshaw stands again he will be bloody tough to move out of Exeter. But I understand he wanted out 2 years ago and had to be prevailed upon to stand again. One to watch.
I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.
She has spared the Labour Party another three years of Corbyn etc. They should be thanking her.
Are you sure that the replacement (who?) will be any better?
If (a big if) Corbyn goes there will be a new leader before McD can get his nomination motion thru conference i.e. will not be hard left person.
This is why I think Corbyn will stay on under pressure from McD, at least until October.
The McD amendment is unlikely to go through in any case, less still given the creaming the Far Left are about to take at the hands of the public. And the unions will kick Corbyn out before then, I should have thought*
*I am assuming a semblance of sanity in the Labour movement, which might be unwise.
Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.
I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.
Corbyn has just backed May's call for a GE. Laura K has tweeted that Labour will vote with the government. It's happening.
On recent polls the only seats outside London that Labour will hold outside London south of the Severn and the Wash are Oxford East, Luton North and maybe Norwich South and Bristol West.
If Ben Bradshaw stands again he will be bloody tough to move out of Exeter. But I understand he wanted out 2 years ago and had to be prevailed upon to stand again. One to watch.
I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.
Corbyn has just backed May's call for a GE. Laura K has tweeted that Labour will vote with the government. It's happening.
Well, it doesn't necessarily mean his backbench MPs will follow suit.
On recent polls the only seats outside London that Labour will hold outside London south of the Severn and the Wash are Oxford East, Luton North and maybe Norwich South and Bristol West.
If Ben Bradshaw stands again he will be bloody tough to move out of Exeter. But I understand he wanted out 2 years ago and had to be prevailed upon to stand again. One to watch.
I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.
But May will have the backing of all her MPs, especially now as it puts the boundary changes on hold until another future GE? And she has totally pulled the rug from under Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP at Westminster. What are they going to do, vote to keep the current Tory Government insitu when they are trying to use the argument of continuing Tory Government at Westminster as a reason to vote Independence.
I didn't see this coming, and I bet neither did Corbyn and his team, this is the last thing Corbyn wanted and he is going to struggle with this GE campaign. He was never planning to hang around long enough to lead Labour through one.
Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.
Nothing much is going to happen until the French and German elections are out of the way. She's taken the one window of opportunity she had, and this will greatly strengthen her hand because she'll be able to negotiate without having to worry about fighting rearguard actions in the Commons.
I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.
How many Labour MPs stand to lose their seats on current polling? I think a lot of them will be packing up and won't bother to stand. Would they rebel against their "leadership" and vote against the motion? I am not sure they have the energy for that.
I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.
Corbyn has just backed May's call for a GE. Laura K has tweeted that Labour will vote with the government. It's happening.
Well, it doesn't necessarily mean his backbench MPs will follow suit.
Yes, that's why I said Laura K tweeted that Labour will vote with government, as opposed to just Corbyn's statement. Plus, some of those who stand to lose out from an early GE simply won't stand, as we've seen already.
Absolutely, there are no new boundaries. What I don't know is whether the BC can continue the current review after a GE or whether the GE forces them to start all over again.
Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.
Nothing much is going to happen until the French and German elections are out of the way. She's taken the one window of opportunity she had, and this will greatly strengthen her hand because she'll be able to negotiate without having to worry about fighting rearguard actions in the Commons.
The difference is that her own MPs can get her out of office more easily than opposition MPs can. She is just going to add to her cabal of enemies on the benches behind her.
It's the Smithson, Junior forecasts for the LibDem prospects on June 9th.
I believe the LibDems will get between 12% and 15% of the Great British (ex NI) vote. I believe the LibDems will win between 12 and 16 seats.
Gains from Labour:
Cambridge and maybe something odd and very Remain-y - Southwark, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bristol West
Gains from the SNP:
Perth Fife NE Edinburgh West
Gains from the Conservatives:
Twickenham Kingston & Surbiton Bath
Possibly one or two of the wealthy, pro-Remain constituencies in the South of the Country.
I think there is only a 30-40% chance that Sarah Olney holds Richmond. But I think there is a good chance that Manchester Gorton (if the by-election now happens) goes LD and stays that way.
8th June means that students will not have gone home.
Plenty of them will have. I remember finishing in may pretty much
Yep, June 8th is middle to end of the exam period. Student numbers will be down.
I just had a look through about a dozen universities exam timetables and they all end either 2nd or 9th June. so I suspect there will be very large numbers of students unclear as to where they will be on election day depending on when their last exam is.
The smart play from Corbyn now would be to resign with immediate effect. That would give Labour MPs credible reasons to vote against an early general election. Obviously, Corbyn is not smart so he'll be resigning on 9th June instead. But the good news is that we are going to get a functioning opposition rather sooner than expected.
What makes you think there'll be a functioning opposition? The labour party is devoid of ideas, principles and a potential leader, the only thing that will change is Corbyn.
Same horse different jockey
If they're short of principles there's always boring centre-left managerialism. They have a few people who could carry it off and the voters will vote for it when they get sick of the government.
8th June means that students will not have gone home.
Plenty of them will have. I remember finishing in may pretty much
Yep, June 8th is middle to end of the exam period. Student numbers will be down.
I just had a look through about a dozen universities exam timetables and they all end either 2nd or 9th June. so I suspect there will be very large numbers of students unclear as to where they will be on election day depending on when their last exam is.
I don't think many people go home straight after exams, usually you hang around for a week to get drunk with your friends.
Comments
But you could yet win.
There will be a large pro-EU, anti-Brexit, anti-Tory protest vote out there which won't want to back Lab under Corbyn..... and the Lib Dems are perfectly placed.
This is why I think Corbyn will stay on under pressure from McD, at least until October.
If the Tories want to go negative, it is fish in a barrel. And that speech it sounded like she is quite happy to grind Team Jezza into the ground.
So it's TMay that saves Labour from Corbyn.
They are in such dire straits that throwing the whole deck of cards in the air does at least offer a chance that their position will be different afterwards, and that holds out the possibility that different will be better.
There might even be some quite unexpected Labour MPs elected (if fed-up people stand down and they're obliged to scratch around quickly for a candidate) and a future Leader/PM candidate might be one of them.
LOL...Sky already talking about Tories likely attack lines...IRA...Hezbollah....
I think Peter from Putney has been betting on this happening.
On behalf of the Party of Pubgoers:
Will @stodge be organizing another piss up in the Finborough Arms?
It is horrible but will probably be used
Chester MP Chris Matheson tells me he will vote against a snap general election. His majority is 93 - most marginal Lab seat in the country.
He's so f***ed.....
They aren't exactly known for being pro-active at getting registration sorted, even when the SU's nagged them daily about it.
Vote 4 May 8 June
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.
*I am assuming a semblance of sanity in the Labour movement, which might be unwise.
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.
Fillon back to 20.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-early-general-election-2017-theresa-may-response-statement-june-8-date-a7688566.html
Unbelievable
I didn't see this coming, and I bet neither did Corbyn and his team, this is the last thing Corbyn wanted and he is going to struggle with this GE campaign. He was never planning to hang around long enough to lead Labour through one.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/07/24/how-theresa-may-could-turn-out-to-be-the-labour-partys-very-unlikely-saviour/
Australia to introduce stricter rules on working visas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-39626389
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/854285958535098369
Makes the investigations into the 2015 election spending somewhat pointless.
It's the Smithson, Junior forecasts for the LibDem prospects on June 9th.
I believe the LibDems will get between 12% and 15% of the Great British (ex NI) vote.
I believe the LibDems will win between 12 and 16 seats.
Gains from Labour:
Cambridge
and maybe something odd and very Remain-y - Southwark, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bristol West
Gains from the SNP:
Perth Fife NE
Edinburgh West
Gains from the Conservatives:
Twickenham
Kingston & Surbiton
Bath
Possibly one or two of the wealthy, pro-Remain constituencies in the South of the Country.
I think there is only a 30-40% chance that Sarah Olney holds Richmond.
But I think there is a good chance that Manchester Gorton (if the by-election now happens) goes LD and stays that way.
https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/854286501554860034