Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
She's seeking democratic mandate from the public. I'd have thought you, as a Liberal Demorcrat, would agree.
And look at it this way. You now have one last opportunity to stop Brexit! Put your case before the country and if the Lib-Dems win a majority we could actually stay in the EU!
Yes I remember the last time a Conservative PM tried to seek a democratic mandate through an unnecessary GE on who governs Britain , Ted Heath lost .
She's seeking democratic mandate from the public. I'd have thought you, as a Liberal Demorcrat, would agree.
And what will be in her manifesto? A long laundry list of demands from the EU. That's just using the voters as human shields for her charge of the light brigade in Brussels.
Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
She's seeking democratic mandate from the public. I'd have thought you, as a Liberal Demorcrat, would agree.
And look at it this way. You now have one last opportunity to stop Brexit! Put your case before the country and if the Lib-Dems win a majority we could actually stay in the EU!
You joke, but imagine a scenario where pro Brexit parties got 65% of the vote, and anti Brexit got 35%. But the LDs + the SNP got 626 seats between them.
There's little gain for the existing crop of MPs. Already governing party, guaranteed a job for next few years. More influence over govt because of smaller majority.
Election means risk of losing seat for some. For others it means loss of influence. And for all concerned it means seven weeks of campaigning earlier than expected, which can't be much fun.
Clearly, May and her team have given this a lot of thought, and taken a lot of soundings.
This achieves a lot for Theresa May, and for Labour, and for the Lib Dems:
(1) It should rid Labour of the far Left, and Corbyn - even if they have to lose 50 extra MPs in the process, it allows their recovery to start three years earlier. At least they will survive. And a decent opposition comes forward. I will be watching to see what Ed Balls does now (he was in the Sunday Times, and I still have him at 66/1 to be next Labour leader)
(2) It allows May to isolate the 20-30 tungsten-tipped Brexiteers in her own party, plus strengthen her own negotiating mandate, plus Salisbury-convention proof her new manifesto so the Lords can't vote down changes on grammar schools, international aid etc.
(3) It allows Farron to make healthy gains at the expense of the Tories
(4) It *should* weaken the SNP slightly in Scotland, given their moves on IndyRef2, and they will want to manifesto proof it anyway.
I'd expect an early election to get at least 500 MPs in favour in the Commons tomorrow.
I'm not convinced the LDs will gain more seats from the Tories than from Labour.
Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.
Nothing much is going to happen until the French and German elections are out of the way. She's taken the one window of opportunity she had, and this will greatly strengthen her hand because she'll be able to negotiate without having to worry about fighting rearguard actions in the Commons.
The difference is that her own MPs can get her out of office more easily than opposition MPs can. She is just going to add to her cabal of enemies on the benches behind her.
I think you miss-judge the Tory party. If Mrs May delivers them a landslide it will give her an aura of unassailablilty that will take some time to fade.
Indeed, it would give her a hero status within the party that Mr Cameron never managed. One would hope that she does more with such a majority than Blair ever did; but with Brexit to deal with, that's more or less guaranteed, one way or the other.
Can't help but be a bit disappointed about this. A major part of TM's USP was that she was looking to deal with problems in the national interest. We have 23 months now to agree a deal with the EU and we are effectively not going to have a government for 3 of them? How is that in the national interest?
I could understand the temptation of the polls and the desire for her own mandate but this seems a mistake to me and my guess is that it won't be quite the spectacular victory it looks like it should be right now.
Hard to argue that Indyref2 is impossible during Brexit but a GE is.
It is inevitable that the SNP will make Indyref2 a part of their manifesto. When they win 50 seats it is going to be impossible to resist. It probably was anyway in the longer run but May risks losing control of the timing here.
Having local elections when everyone KNOWS that a GE is coming, rather than just suspects (as was often the case in the 80s) is a unique situation. If the national parties are already in full campaigning mode by then, any local factors are going to get swamped by national noise and the locals will provide a remarkable half-time score for the election to come.
I wonder how many of the small number of Tories who lost their seats to Labour in 2015 are thinking about winning them back again, ie. Dewsbury, Wirral West, Chester, Ealing Acton.
Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
Here's your opportunity to defeat Brexit.
I said earlier it looked like the LDs were frit. General elections are not so easy as by-elections.
If the yellows were starting from a higher base it'd be a dead cert. They still have a good chance, but I'm not sure. Think I'll sit that out. Might bet on seat numbers when they come up.
Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
Says uber partisan Mark Senior
I on the other hand can see several reasons for her doing this
What a great opportunity for lots more LibDems who will put the country first and not their party.
This election is going to be about giving the Prime Minister a mandate to deliver the best deal for the UK in its negotiations with Brussels. The LibDems risk being painted in this election as the party of Rejoin. At best, they will be looking like they are chewing wasps, being an impediment to the best deal for Britain - and holding back the democratic will of the people.
It might not play out as well as you hope....
The people who see it that way will be voting for Blukip anyway.
She has a mandate, it's just one with enough Remainers in the HoC and a small enough majority to ensure very active scrutiny of most proposals, which she hates.
I don't see what good it does to move from a useless opposition to a shell-shocked opposition. If one defines 'elected dictatorships' as a majority of >50, we've had one of these for 22 of the 37 years since 1979 (1983-92, 1997-10). Key indicators such as the current a/c deficit and the housing shortage are worse than ever.
Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
She's seeking democratic mandate from the public. I'd have thought you, as a Liberal Demorcrat, would agree.
And look at it this way. You now have one last opportunity to stop Brexit! Put your case before the country and if the Lib-Dems win a majority we could actually stay in the EU!
1 May to make Downing Street statement 2 Theresa May makes No 10 statement 3 Hundreds suing NHS over vaginal implants 4 First living giant shipworm found
This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual
My heart sinks at the thought of Corbyn "fighting" the election. Not just because of him and his lack of nous and oomph and skills, but because the media will make it about him and will drone on endlessly about how bad he is and how left-wing he is and how people don't rate him and whether he'll resign. I'm dreading it. It was bad enough with Miliband.
Which reminds me, Labour showed a distinct lack of balls at the last election. Will they manage to correct this in the next few weeks? I doubt it.
A Bacon Butty and an Ed Stone damaged him so badly. But those paper attacks are going to look very gentle compared to the onslaught Corbyn will face.
So, wait, what if the SNP stand on a "Vote SNP for IndyRef2" platform and get 40+ MPs?
Vote SNP for Indyref2 and against a hard Brexit. They will clean up Scottish seats on a FPTP basis and Theresa May will have quite a lot of trouble with it. The SNP can reasonably claim a mandate from the Scottish electorate for their Indyref stance, and do so much more easily than they could with a Holyrood election.
As the Tories look likely to sweep to a 100+ seat majority - Scotland's voters minds will be focused by this !! - I think today's moves will only strengthen the case for an IndyRef2 sooner rather than later.
I reckon six weeks of Corbyn on live TV and nightly news will knock another 5 off. They are looking at a 20% floor if lucky.
I think luckily for Labour their brand is still surprisingly strong. I am sure they will get 25% despite Jezza. However, he will probably do a good bit of damage for the brand for the future.
A difficult one for former Scottish Labour, unionist voters. Do they vote for the SNP to prevent adding to a massive Tory majority or for the Tories to break up the SNP dominance ahead of a second Independence referendum.
I reckon that this could be a big breakthrough for the Lib Dems if Labour continue to support Brexit, as then the 'Inners' will only have one way to go. For what it is worth a know more than a few Tories that will probably hold their nose and vote Lib Dem to abort Brexit.
On the other hand I could have been tempted to vote lib dems and would certainly have done so in locals... BEFORE their shameless positioning on Brexit against the will of the people and their own stated position in the past.
So it is an election, as my wife keeps telling me "what do you know" One would think the Cons would win easily, but the two 1974 elections both started in that way, February Cons walk it, October Labour walk it. In both cases never happened. The elephant in the room is I suppose Mr Corbyn. There is an opportunity for Farron, particualrly in the TV debates.
This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual
My heart sinks at the thought of Corbyn "fighting" the election. Not just because of him and his lack of nous and oomph and skills, but because the media will make it about him and will drone on endlessly about how bad he is and how left-wing he is and how people don't rate him and whether he'll resign. I'm dreading it. It was bad enough with Miliband.
Which reminds me, Labour showed a distinct lack of balls at the last election. Will they manage to correct this in the next few weeks? I doubt it.
A Bacon Butty and an Ed Stone damaged him so badly. But those paper attacks are going to look very gentle compared to the onslaught Corbyn will face.
And unlike the Mail's rather dodgy attack on Ed via his father's views....with Jezza they have a rammed packed virgin train full of stuff from his very own mouth.
Plus, I doubt the BBC or Guardian are going to be interested in trying to be sympathetic to defending the Labour leader from the Mail being nasty.
In fact what papers are going to back Labour this time? Morning Star and...?
Theresa May says in her statement that she's calling a general election because of a) the SNP and b) the House of Lords. Apparently the "game-playing" will jeopardise the form that Brexit takes if she doesn't get a bigger Tory majority in the Commons.
How awake does a person have to be to realise that her stated reason is a complete load of crap? Never mind that she lied in the past. She is lying now.
A general election is unlikely to change the number of SNP MPs by much, and even if it did, so what? And it won't change the composition of either the Scottish Parliament or the House of Lords one iota. And she's got a majority at the moment. Only Tory MPs can get rid of that majority - by voting against her, by crossing the floor of the House, or by getting replaced in by-elections. None of those possibilities have anything whatsoever do with the SNP or the House of Lords.
The Kremlin and the White House will love this general election. Europe is being destabilised.
"Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit". That's funny. I thought that division in Westminster was exactly how parliamentary democracy was meant to work.
Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
She's seeking democratic mandate from the public. I'd have thought you, as a Liberal Demorcrat, would agree.
And look at it this way. You now have one last opportunity to stop Brexit! Put your case before the country and if the Lib-Dems win a majority we could actually stay in the EU!
Yes I remember the last time a Conservative PM tried to seek a democratic mandate through an unnecessary GE on who governs Britain , Ted Heath lost .
Ted called an election in the fourth year of his government.
Seems we have a self confessed liar as PM wanting to call an early GE for no reason other than party political advantage . What a partisan disgrace the Conservative party is .
Says uber partisan Mark Senior
I on the other hand can see several reasons for her doing this
I can see the reasons too !! They are the same reasons that existed when May lied repeatedly months ago .
So election held, Tories take 40 seats from Labour but lose 42 to the Lib Dems. What then?
Worse tories take 40 seats rom Labour and the Lib Dems take 52 from the Tories. What then???
I think we can have a guess at 40 seats the Conservatives can take from Labour.
But what are the 42 or 52 seats the LibDems can take from the Conservatives ?
In their wildest dreams, the top out for the Lib Dems would be about 30 gains from the Tories. And, to match a 2005 type tally, the Tories would have to be on their way out of Government.
So if this was 2020 then Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk would be a nailed on 100% cast iron get on at any price guaranteed fact Con Gain.
But this special Brexit General Election (we should totally calls this a BGE) throws that into doubt. The rump Lib Dem who I would have been sure would switch to Con to get the SNP out I'm suddenly not so confident on.
This election is good news all round. Particular for Brexit negotiations – May will no longer be in truck to the frothing far right and will be able to deal sensibly.
Meanwhile, Corbyn must be pressed on whether he will resign if defeated. If he says no to that question, he will look pathetic*
*Even more so than usual
He has just been asked and he refused to comment on his future if he loses
I wonder how many of the small number of Tories who lost their seats to Labour in 2015 are thinking about winning them back again, ie. Dewsbury, Wirral West, Chester, Ealing Acton.
I wonder if we'll see Nick Palmer as an emergency Labour candidate in Broxtowe.
A difficult one for former Scottish Labour, unionist voters. Do they vote for the SNP to prevent adding to a massive Tory majority or for the Tories to break up the SNP dominance ahead of a second Independence referendum.
The Scots don't want another referendum, the Nats are well overdue a punishment beating.
So election held, Tories take 40 seats from Labour but lose 42 to the Lib Dems. What then?
Worse tories take 40 seats rom Labour and the Lib Dems take 52 from the Tories. What then???
I think we can have a guess at 40 seats the Conservatives can take from Labour.
But what are the 42 or 52 seats the LibDems can take from the Conservatives ?
In their wildest dreams, the top out for the Lib Dems would be about 30 gains from the Tories. And, to match a 2005 type tally, the Tories would have to be on their way out of Government.
But, we live in unpredictable times.
One factor may be differential turnout between hard-core Remainers vs Brexiteers. The former will be far more determined to make their vote count.
So, wait, what if the SNP stand on a "Vote SNP for IndyRef2" platform and get 40+ MPs?
Vote SNP for Indyref2 and against a hard Brexit. They will clean up Scottish seats on a FPTP basis and Theresa May will have quite a lot of trouble with it. The SNP can reasonably claim a mandate from the Scottish electorate for their Indyref stance, and do so much more easily than they could with a Holyrood election.
As the Tories look likely to sweep to a 100+ seat majority - Scotland's voters minds will be focused by this !! - I think today's moves will only strengthen the case for an IndyRef2 sooner rather than later.
So why aren't the SNP calling for one for June 8th? What is Sturgeon afraid of? Or are they not serious about independence?
LOL...Barry Gardiner spinning that Labour have proposed 8 new policies and polling shows they are really popular....so popular that Labour were 21% behind!!!!
I cannot see how she will get it through on the FTPA.
If Labour MPs agree half of them will lose their seats. Why would the Nats agree? They have been told that IndyRef2 is post Brexit so 2019 or 2022 depending.
If she fails to get her election then SHE has to go. What an utter shambles it could all be.
But May will have the backing of all her MPs, especially now as it puts the boundary changes on hold until another future GE? And she has totally pulled the rug from under Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP at Westminster. What are they going to do, vote to keep the current Tory Government insitu when they are trying to use the argument of continuing Tory Government at Westminster as a reason to vote Independence.
I didn't see this coming, and I bet neither did Corbyn and his team, this is the last thing Corbyn wanted and he is going to struggle with this GE campaign. He was never planning to hang around long enough to lead Labour through one.
Well then, why does he simply not say that this wrong during Brexit and instruct his MPs to vote against? That would leave May having to resign and the Tories in turmoil from which they would take months to recover.
If Corbyn loses MPs and then fails to resign then Labour is finished.
CCHQ called in nightshift I see, is Carlotta on vacation
If the yellows were starting from a higher base it'd be a dead cert. They still have a good chance, but I'm not sure. Think I'll sit that out. Might bet on seat numbers when they come up.
Given the mountain of the voting system, I think betting on votes is the safer bet. In the large majority of shire Tory-held seats, Labour is going to get slaughtered, and the non-Tory minority have no-one else to vote for.
OK Crosby, is it: Corbyn the dangerous, IRA/Hamas sympathiser who send us back to 1970s oblivion or Corbyn the dim, jam-making, useless, can't control his own party, etc.
I think it could be the moment that her mask slipped and begins to be seen as a cynical ,slippery politician no different to the likes of Cameron & Blair.
Who won elections.
I'm in agreement with Foxinox about INdyref - it cannot be the case that you can have a GE disrupt the negotiations but not an INdyref.
Also agree that Corbyn is a decent performer in debates - he could surprise.
May has done a poor job justifying this on the grounds of a changed situation, but that Corbyn has picked up the gauntlet nullifies the partisan accusation a little, though not completely.
Also, is she advocating abolishing the Lords? She cited 'unelected' lords as a block on brexit causing difficulty, an election won't change that unless she is planning to do something with them.
So election held, Tories take 40 seats from Labour but lose 42 to the Lib Dems. What then?
Worse tories take 40 seats rom Labour and the Lib Dems take 52 from the Tories. What then???
I think we can have a guess at 40 seats the Conservatives can take from Labour.
But what are the 42 or 52 seats the LibDems can take from the Conservatives ?
In their wildest dreams, the top out for the Lib Dems would be about 30 gains from the Tories. And, to match a 2005 type tally, the Tories would have to be on their way out of Government.
But, we live in unpredictable times.
One factor may be differential turnout between hard-core Remainers vs Brexiteers. The former will be far more determined to make their vote count.
OR..... The interesting thing will be whether those who voted in June 2016 but otherwise sit on their hands will turn out to give May the security of knowing she can deliver Brexit. And I think that will be a very determined focus of the campaign. If so, high turnout could tip some startling seats the Tories way...
Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
It was put in place to provide stability and reassurance to the coalition partners. Fair to say it has now run its course, but personally I preferred the idea in principle.
OK Crosby, is it: Corbyn the dangerous, IRA/Hamas sympathiser who send us back to 1970s oblivion or Corbyn the dim, jam-making, useless, can't control his own party, etc.
I think I know the answer...
It will be less Jezza the harmless wolfie smith, more than the former.
Coming to a billboard near you....Jezza in the pocket of Gerry Adams.
Can we just get rid of Fix Term Act now, because it is clearly a total waste of time.
As I have been banging on about for ages. It is the biggest load of b*llx in a long, long time, as was obvious from the moment Osborne dreamt it up. May has simply proved the case. Get rid of it.
Comments
But isn't it often said that Labour loses support in general election campaigns ?
That would be a constitutional mess.
Worse tories take 40 seats rom Labour and the Lib Dems take 52 from the Tories. What then???
Election means risk of losing seat for some. For others it means loss of influence. And for all concerned it means seven weeks of campaigning earlier than expected, which can't be much fun.
https://twitter.com/pencilbandit/status/854279858456756224
But if he has, there isn't going to be a person in the country that won't have heard of Jezza and McMao's dodgy pasts in 7 weeks time.
Indeed, it would give her a hero status within the party that Mr Cameron never managed. One would hope that she does more with such a majority than Blair ever did; but with Brexit to deal with, that's more or less guaranteed, one way or the other.
Maybe my 500/1 is live.
I reckon six weeks of Corbyn on live TV and nightly news will knock another 5 off. They are looking at a 20% floor if lucky.
Single market? EEA?
Having local elections when everyone KNOWS that a GE is coming, rather than just suspects (as was often the case in the 80s) is a unique situation. If the national parties are already in full campaigning mode by then, any local factors are going to get swamped by national noise and the locals will provide a remarkable half-time score for the election to come.
If the yellows were starting from a higher base it'd be a dead cert. They still have a good chance, but I'm not sure. Think I'll sit that out. Might bet on seat numbers when they come up.
I on the other hand can see several reasons for her doing this
I don't see what good it does to move from a useless opposition to a shell-shocked opposition. If one defines 'elected dictatorships' as a majority of >50, we've had one of these for 22 of the 37 years since 1979 (1983-92, 1997-10). Key indicators such as the current a/c deficit and the housing shortage are worse than ever.
But what are the 42 or 52 seats the LibDems can take from the Conservatives ?
May to make Downing Street statement
2
Theresa May makes No 10 statement
3
Hundreds suing NHS over vaginal implants
4
First living giant shipworm found
A Bacon Butty and an Ed Stone damaged him so badly. But those paper attacks are going to look very gentle compared to the onslaught Corbyn will face.
One would think the Cons would win easily, but the two 1974 elections both started in that way, February Cons walk it, October Labour walk it. In both cases never happened.
The elephant in the room is I suppose Mr Corbyn. There is an opportunity for Farron, particualrly in the TV debates.
Plus, I doubt the BBC or Guardian are going to be interested in trying to be sympathetic to defending the Labour leader from the Mail being nasty.
In fact what papers are going to back Labour this time? Morning Star and...?
How awake does a person have to be to realise that her stated reason is a complete load of crap? Never mind that she lied in the past. She is lying now.
A general election is unlikely to change the number of SNP MPs by much, and even if it did, so what? And it won't change the composition of either the Scottish Parliament or the House of Lords one iota. And she's got a majority at the moment. Only Tory MPs can get rid of that majority - by voting against her, by crossing the floor of the House, or by getting replaced in by-elections. None of those possibilities have anything whatsoever do with the SNP or the House of Lords.
The Kremlin and the White House will love this general election. Europe is being destabilised.
"Division in Westminster will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit". That's funny. I thought that division in Westminster was exactly how parliamentary democracy was meant to work.
So did Thatcher. Twice.
We'll soon see which one May is most like.
But, we live in unpredictable times.
TM deluded Abbott.
But this special Brexit General Election (we should totally calls this a BGE) throws that into doubt. The rump Lib Dem who I would have been sure would switch to Con to get the SNP out I'm suddenly not so confident on.
May + Team Crosby vs Jezza + Team Seamus....It is like Real Madrid playing at home to a team of shoeless goat herders from rural Spain.
They might do very well off the back of the national campaign, though. Places like Bath and Twickenham will be very vulnerable to them.
Corbyn the dangerous, IRA/Hamas sympathiser who send us back to 1970s oblivion or
Corbyn the dim, jam-making, useless, can't control his own party, etc.
I think I know the answer...
I'm in agreement with Foxinox about INdyref - it cannot be the case that you can have a GE disrupt the negotiations but not an INdyref.
Also agree that Corbyn is a decent performer in debates - he could surprise.
May has done a poor job justifying this on the grounds of a changed situation, but that Corbyn has picked up the gauntlet nullifies the partisan accusation a little, though not completely.
Also, is she advocating abolishing the Lords? She cited 'unelected' lords as a block on brexit causing difficulty, an election won't change that unless she is planning to do something with them.
I've gone all Queen Victoria after Albert died.
Are they convinced yet that the UK has gone totally mad?
Coming to a billboard near you....Jezza in the pocket of Gerry Adams.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/theresa-may-could-give-conservatives-200-seat-lead-labour-early/